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Education in Southeast Asia Opportunities for Investors and Operators

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Education in Southeast Asia Opportunities for Investors and Operators Education in Southeast Asia Opportunities for investors and operators Parthenon-EY Education practice Education in Southeast Asia: opportunities for investors and operators Background: growth of private education Estimated worldwide private education spend by region, 2015 Private education is a trillion–dollar industry globally. Europe and Central Asia Emerging markets have seen $160b a surge in private provision of education during the last Asia–Pacific decade. Population growth North America Middle East $260b $480b and Africa during the last century, along $50b Southeast Asia $60b with macroeconomic gains, Latin America South has paved the way for this and Caribbean Asia trend. Rising affluence has $100b $30b Australia, New Zealand (ANZ) contributed to increased and Oceania enrollment across levels of Note: The worldwide private education spend is calculated based on $20b the spend on education as a proportion of gross domestic product. education. Source: World Bank data; Oxford Economics data; Parthenon-EY analysis. However, as demand for education has risen, governments have struggled to match the supply. The burgeoning middle class in emerging markets has turned to private education to meet the demand for high-quality education. The private education spend in Southeast Asia has reached nearly $60 billion. Transaction activity has accelerated greatly in the past decade, highlighting the success of the sector. Much of this growth has been driven by activity in Asia; deal volume has jumped more than 80% with around 60 transactions taking place from 2011–13. Completed M&A activity in emerging private education markets, 2002–13 MENA Africa 800 MENA Latin America Africa Southeast Asia 600 Latin America MENA ANZ Southeast Asia Africa MENA* ANZ India 400 Africa Latin India America Latin Europe Southeast Asia Europe America ANZ 200 China India and Europe China and East Asia China and East Asia ANZ East Europe Asia China and East Asia 0 2002–04 2005–07 2008–10 2011–13 *Middle East and North Africa Source: Preqin; CapIQ. 2 Parthenon-EY Education practice What is driving the growth of private education in Southeast Asia? Economic growth, demographic trends and cultural shifts have spurred the large demand for private education. Key demand drivers $ $ $ $EN $EN EN$ EN EN EN Shrinking Rapid Affordability Low capacity Value of English Desire for household size urbanization vs. demand proficiency international education Shrinking$ household sizeEN Population growth of city versus national average, 2005–15 The average household size has decreased across Southeast Asia. 4.4 Traditionally, large, extended Philippines 4.9 families made childcare accessible to couples. As more families have 4.2 Malaysia 4.6 dual incomes, a growing number of nuclear families must look for 3.9 Indonesia outside childcare providers. The 4.0 decline in the average household 3.5 size has led to a corresponding Vietnam 4.3 increased demand for early education across the region. 3.4 Singapore 3.6 2015 3.1 2005 Thailand 3.7 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Source: Euromonitor; Parthenon-EY analysis. Parthenon-EY Education practice 3 Education in Southeast Asia: opportunities for investors and operators Rapid$ urbanizationEN Population growth of city versus national average, 2005–15 Rapid urbanization has also encouraged the growth of private education as a result Population of concentrated demand and growth (CAGR) Philippines higher incomes. The populations Vietnam Thailand >4% in major metropolitan areas of Bangkok Manila Southeast Asian countries have Ho Chi 3%–4% 3X Minh City 1.3X increased at a significantly higher 2.5X 1%–2% rate than national populations. Kuala Malaysia Lumpur 1.3X Indonesia Jakarta 2X Source: Euromonitor; Parthenon-EY analysis. $ AffordabilityEN Average gross income per household (US$), 1999–2020F (Forecast (F)) Emerging markets in the region have demonstrated robust $50k CAGR CAGR economic performance during Malaysia (2005–14) (2014–20) the past 20 years, with the Thailand 7% 6% 40 average gross income per Philippines Indonesia household on a steady rise. Vietnam Increases in income have greatly 30 contributed to demand for high- quality education, with more 20 13% 10% households than ever before able, 6% 6% 3% 5% and willing, to spend a premium 10 14% 7% on education — from the early years to higher education. 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Note: Real income growth is based on 2013 US$. Source: Euromonitor; Parthneon-EY analysis. 4 Parthenon-EY Education practice $ LowEN capacity vs. demand K-12 private vs. public enrollment, 2011–14* The growing demand for quality education in Southeast Asia cannot 8% be met by the overburdened public 7% Public sector enrollment growth systems. The private sector has 6% 6 stepped in to meet this demand, Private sector 5% enrollment growth with private school enrollment 4% outperforming public enrollment 4 across most of the region. 2% 2 1% 0% 0 -2 -2% -2% -2% Singapore Malaysia Thailand* Indonesia Philippines *Data for the most recent years has been used when 2011–14 data was not available. Source: Singapore Education Statistics Digest; Ministry of Education, Malaysia; Malaysian National Statistics; Ministry of Education, Thailand; Ministry of Education, Indonesia: Ministry of Education, Philippines. $ EN Value of English proficiency Survey of Vietnamese parents, 2015 English has moved from being Q: Why is learning English important for your child? an aspirational skill to an essential requirement in the job market in n=630 many Southeast Asian countries. 100% Students and parents place a high Other reasons value on learning English, 80 Improve communication skills particularly in markets such as Thailand and Vietnam, where the 60 public curricula may not offer Better career prospects English-learning opportunities. 40 Parthenon-EY’s surveys of parents across the region confirmed that English is valued because it 20 Study abroad or foundation courses can lead to higher-paying jobs, increased chances of studying 0 Total abroad and job success. Note: Real income growth is based on 2013 US$. Source: Euromonitor; Parthneon-EY analysis. Parthenon-EY Education practice 5 Education in Southeast Asia: opportunities for investors and operators $ EN Desire for international education International enrollment in Western markets, by source, region and country, 2013 The importance placed on English language skills has led Others Others to a corresponding desire to Africa Myanmar study abroad in English-speaking countries. Developed markets not 1.4m 1.4m 0.2m Brunei 100% only offer a chance to improve New Zealand Latin America Philippines one’s English skills, but also an opportunity to work in the host MENA Thailand United Kingdom country, potentially earning a 80 East Asia Singapore premium salary. After Greater China, Southeast Asia is the Southeast Asia second largest market of students Indonesia Australia 60 leaving for key Western countries, South Asia with the majority of students coming from Malaysia. Vietnam 40 United States Greater China 20 Malaysia 0 By destination country By source region By source country Source: World Bank statistics; Parthenon-EY analysis. 6 Parthenon-EY Education practice Understanding market size and growth in Southeast Asia The key demand drivers have contributed to a robust and growing private education market in Southeast Asia, close to $10 billion in key markets. Private K-12 and higher education are the largest segments in the market and the most developed. In part due to their scalability, K-12 and higher education also accelerate quickly as economies develop and students invest in higher education to take advantage of these new economic opportunities. Singapore and Malaysia have the most developed private education markets. Malaysia has a long history of establishing private higher education institutions and generating significant investments from corporations and private equity. Both countries are also benefiting from the increased popularity of international schools. Singapore is now the largest international schools market in the world, with estimated revenues of more than $700 million. It is not uncommon to find schools with an enrollment of more than 2,500 students, priced at more than $25,000 per year. The Thai, Indonesian and Vietnamese markets, though smaller in size, are expected to expand as their economies grow, bringing more high-quality, private offerings. Private K-12 and higher education market, select Southeastern Asian countries, 2013 $2.7b $2.2b $1.3b $1.2b $1.1b • Total = $8.5b 100% K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 K-12 80 Revenue growth (2010–13) 60 N/A 0–10% CAGR 10–15% CAGR 40 Higher education Higher education Higher Higher Higher education education education 15–20% CAGR 20 0 Malaysia Singapore Thailand Indonesia Vietnam Source: Official school websites; Parthenon-EY primary research and proprietary data. Parthenon-EY Education practice 7 Education in Southeast Asia: opportunities for investors and operators Considerations for investing in education Education segments differ in character, but favorable attributes make the sector especially encouraging for investment. Long-term High Demand Prices rising Negative 1 revenue 2 barriers 3 greater 4 faster than 5 working visibility to entry than supply inflation capital Higher education Private K-12 Transnational education English-language learning Vocational education 1 Long-term revenue visibility Regulatory oversight ranges from fee 4 Prices
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