A-1103 WIEN, POSTFACH 91 TEL. 798 26 01 • FAX 798 93 86 ÖSTERREICHISCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG 65th Euroconstruct Conference 2008 European Construction Market Trends to 2010 Country Reports June 2008 This country report has been written and prepared by the EURCONSTRUCT organisation from the country reports of the 19 EUROCONSTRUCT member institutes CRESME Ricerche Spa Via Fogliano,15 00199 Roma - Italia www.euroconstruct.org © EUROCONSTRUCT June 2008 Cover © OPENROMA srl, www.openroma.it Reproduction or passing-on of the whole or parts of the report is strictly forbidden without the prior written approval from CRESME, acting on behalf of the EUROCONSTRUCT group 2 - ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS The Euroconstruct network 5 Austria 9 Belgium 27 Czech Republic 43 Denmark 63 Finland 85 France 109 Germany 133 Hungary 149 Ireland 177 Italy 203 Netherlands 225 Norway 247 Poland 269 Portugal 295 Slovakia 317 Spain 341 Sweden 365 Switzerland 387 United Kingdom 411 Member Institutes 435 ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 - 3 THE EUROCONSTRUCT NETWORK EUROPEAN CONSTRUCTION BUSINESS RESEARCH AND FORECASTING GROUP www.euroconstruct.org EUROCONSTRUCT was set up in 1975 by a number of specialised research institutes and consulting organisations as a study group for construction analysis and forecasting. It has since expanded from the core group to include almost all Western European countries (the European Union and EFTA), as well as a number of Eastern European countries. At present, EURCONSTRUCT has member institutes in 19 European countries. EUROCONSTRUCT’S network also extends to the Baltic States (through our Finnish partner), Japan (Research Institute for Construction and Economy, RICE, Tokyo) and Korea (Construction & Economy Research Institute of Korea, CERIK, Seoul). The aim of EUROCONSTRUCT is to provide decision-makers in the construction sector and related markets and in ministries, agencies and national and international associations with information, analyses and forecasts to enable them to plan their business more effectively. Construction markets are regional or even local. It is, therefore, a great advantage that the analysis and forecasts for these markets are prepared within the EUROCONSTRUCT network by competent national institutes for their respective home markets. EUROCONSTRUCT’S research and advice focuses on: o Short and medium-term forecasts for macro-economic and detailed construction trends in Europe o Analysis of structural changes, business strategies and competition in the European and world-wide construction industry o Market studies for industrial goods and service used by the building and infrastructure sectors. EUROCONSTRUCT’S research and forecasts are designed to meet the needs of many types of business including: o Construction contractors and developers; housing associations; o Manufacturers and traders supplying construction materials, products, equipment and machines; architects and other construction professionals; o Banks, financial and credit institutions; o Government departments and national agencies; industry associations; o The Commission of the European Community and other European organisations. ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 - 5 THE EUROCONSTRUCT NETWORK Each country member of EUROCONSTRUCT has the project management resources to offer their customers turnkey studies of pan-European scope. They can guarantee: o Specific know-how and experience in database research and consulting; o A consistent multinational approach; o Expertise in project co-ordination and quality control; o Reports in the languages of the customer’s choice. Twice a year, EUROCONSTRUCT organises an international conference on: o Short-term forecasts by the EUROCONSTRUCT member institutes for the main market segments (housing, non-residential buildings, infrastructure and civil engineering, all sub- sectors with a breakdown in new work, and renovation/modernisation activities) in nineteen European countries. o A special issue selected for its medium-term impact on the construction industry (e.g. demographics, privatisation, lifestyles, technological change, internationalisation of strategies, changes in the demand and supply structure). Past and forthcoming conference venues: June 2002 Dublin (Ireland) December 2002 Munich (Germany) June 2003 Budapest (Hungary) December 2003 Funchal (Portugal) June 2004 Stockholm (Sweden) December 2004 Paris (France) June 2005 Cardiff (UK) November 2005 Barcelona (Spain) June 2006 Amsterdam (the Netherlands) December 2006 Munich (Germany) June 2007 Prague (Czech Republic) December 2007 Vienna (Austria) June 2008 Rome (Italy) December 2008 Brussels (Belgium) In addition, EUROCONSTRUCT offers special studies for selected national and international clients based on well-founded knowledge of databases, methods, correlations and measures. For details, please contact the EUROCONSTRUCT partner institute in your own country. 6 - ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 THE EUROCONSTRUCT NETWORK MEMBER INSTITUTES Austria WIFO Austrian Institute of Economic Research Association pour la Qualité des Indicateurs Économiques Belgium Aquiec-Vkebi de la Construction Czech Republic ÚRS PRAHA ÚRS PRAHA, a.s., engineering & consulting organisation Denmark CIFS Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies Finland VTT Building and Transport, Business Intelligence France BIPE BIPE Germany IFO IFO Institute for Economic Research Hungary Build&Econ Building Economy, Art and Architecture Consulting Office Ireland DKM DKM Economic Consultants Centro Ricerche Economiche e Sociologiche di Mercato Italy CRESME nell'Edilizia Netherlands EIB Economisch Instituut voor de Bouwnijverheid Norway Prognosesenteret AS PS – Building and ConstructionResearch Poland PAB Polish Construction Research & Forecasting Portugal ITIC Technical Institute for the Construction Industry Slovakia ÚEOS ÚEOS - Komercia, a.s Spain ITeC The Catalonia Institute of Construction Technology Sweden Prognoscentret AB Prognosesenteret AB (Part of the Analysgruppen AS) Swiss Institute for Business Cycle Research, Swiss Switzerland KOF ETH Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich United Kingdom Experian Experian Business Strategies ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 - 7 AUSTRIA Austrian Institute of Economic Research www.wifo.ac.at [email protected] [email protected] 65th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference Rome, June 2008 AUSTRIA 1 Summary The GDP in Austria is projected to grow by 2.1 % in volume this year. Next year, the momentum may moderate further, to an annual increase of 1.7 %. The forecast, particularly for 2009, is subject to an unusually wide margin of uncertainty since the scope and duration of the current international financial market crisis cannot be predicted reliably. The credit crisis has already left a clear impact on the real economy in the USA and Europe could be affected. In Austria, exports, industrial output and investments are set to decelerate during 2008 (having still been buoyant at the beginning of the year). Private consumption is unlikely to provide major support as high inflation will prevent net real income per employee from rising. Job creation, having been strong in early 2008, will gradually abate with the economic activity slackening. The downward trend in unemployment is likely to turn around in 2009. In 2010 GDP is expected to rise by 2.5 % mainly because of the planned tax reform. In 2008 new residential construction will grow by around 1.8% chiefly because of cautious investment activities. Recent studies show that there is a lack of housing in Austria because of strong migration. Therefore a more dynamic development can be expected for the forecast period. The effects of the US real estate crisis will be overwhelming in the next years as a result growth rates of about 2.0% and 2.5% for 2009 and 2010 are expected. Non-residential construction reached a peak in 2007 (3.5%). Services, commerce and leisure facilities are particularly needed. The volume in rented offices increased and the office vacancies rate amounted under a rate of 5%. Due to the international financial crises, international investors are still cautious thereby causing growth rates of only about 2.0% in 2008 and 1.5% in 2009. A recovery of 3% is expected in 2010. Civil engineering supports the construction industry particularly in the transport infrastructure. Public investment plans reached a peak in 2007 (7.5%) but long term projects assure continuous growth within the forecast period (4% in 2008 and 2009, 5% in 2010). Total construction will only increase by 2.3% in 2008 after very dynamic years with growth rates of about 5.1% (2006) and 3.7% (2007) when construction growth was well above the overall economic growth. Due to macroeconomic constraints and last year’s peak in civil engineering, the construction industry is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2009. The recovery of the building sectors will lead to a growth of about 2.9% in total construction in 2010. Chart 1: Construction output by sector until 2009 Index 2003=100 140 Total civil engineering 130 New non-residential construction 120 New residential index construction 110 Building renovation 100 90 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: WIFO, EUROCONSTRUCT Rome, 2008. ©Euroconstruct – Rome, June 2008 - 11 AUSTRIA 2 Macro-economic Outlook After Phase of Weakness - Economic Growth Picking in 2010 as a Result of the Tax Reform Austria’s overall economic growth attained nearly 3.5 % in 2006 and 2007. GDP growth remained robust in 2008 but