Foresight Gist Brought to You By
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OPTIMIZING YOU GET THE GIST ON EMERGING WEARABLE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES A Foresight Gist brought to you by: Edited by Dennis D. Draeger SHAPING TOMORROW FOR ESIGHT GIST: WEARABL ES THE PREFACE What is a Foresight Gist? 2014 was meant to be the year of wearables, Gists provide a brief overview of the current and and certainly online sources produced several future status of each monthly topic and are articles on the topic. Below is a chart from Google intended to help readers quickly and conveniently Trends that shows the worldwide publication of appraise the future of an issue. Across the year, articles relevant to the search term over the last they will keep you and your organization abreast of few years. Note the marked increase since mid- issues important to a variety of industries. Each 5- 2013. 10 page Gist includes an introduction to the topic, a literature review using our Indicators, and a suggested method of analysis. For this Gist, a baseline scenario is provided as a starting point for building other scenarios and strategies more specific for your organization. FIGURE 1 GOOGLE TRENDS CHART: WEARABLES The Methodology Using the latest technology, Shaping Tomorrow Shaping Tomorrow has also noticed the increase has extracted more than 19,000 Indicators (one in publications. Below is a chart showing the sentence forecasts) out of Shaping Tomorrow’s percentage of total Insights by publication date of 85,000+ Insights. These Indicators were Insights that were posted using the tag wearable—a summarized to indicate the future of this month’s broader term that is still focused more on wearable topic, wearables. The Indicators were then computing than fashion due to the nature of paraphrased and edited for reader convenience. Shaping Tomorrow. The editor added 15+ pdf reports and 50+ online articles about wearables to Shaping Tomorrow’s database to increase the data for this Gist. These same sources and those previously on Shaping Tomorrow were also used for the introduction and to develop the baseline scenario. FIGURE 2 PERCENTAGE OF SHAPING TOMORROW INSIGHTS: WEARABLE The Subscriptions Shaping Tomorrow offers clients the service of Shaping Tomorrow has also produced a useful searching these Indicators at their convenience for word cloud showing the words associated with the a fee. Searching the Indicators gives clients greater search term, wearable. The size of each word flexibility for strategy development. Please contact correlates to how often it is used in related Insights. us to find out more. The Gists can be subscribed to or purchased individually for a more modest fee. Gists are published 12 times per year at $40 per issue. You may subscribe for the full year for $400, and you may order a custom gist for $4000. The Future Gists We endeavor to make each Gist a launching pad for organizations to facilitate their own strategic development. Future Gists will include many changes to better accomplish this goal, but feel free to tell us what you think would improve this Gist FIGURE 3 SHAPING TOMORROW WORD CLOUD: WEARABLE and which topics would interest you. SHAPING TOMORROW FOR ESIGHT GIST: WEARABL ES THE PRESENT Wearables are entering the consumer market thanks to the emerging convergence of seven THE ABSTRACT primary trends which act as functions of the wearables—each at a different stage of Wearable web devices, simply development: known as wearables, provide an 1. Mobile: One Among Many The mobile industry evolution of current mobile has grown from phone conversations and text messages to cloud based app usage. technology to optimize wearer The current role of the smartphone is performance of everything from evolving beyond one small screen to a web athletics and gaming to shopping of wearable information technologies that could interact with a larger screen (e.g. and stock trading. These wearables tablet, computer, TV) at home, the office, or accelerate access to information public spaces. using more intuitive methods, and 2. Measuring Myself Self-tracking or quantified self refers to the many methods—especially they increase the types of via wearable electronic devices—consumers information made practical to a can use to gather data about their activities variety of industries. Wearables and behaviour (e.g. exercise, interest levels) to make better decisions and improve their will help ramp up the changes lives. spurred by the advent of the 3. Immersive Experiences Immersive technologies internet, but they will also intensify (e.g. 3D audio, holograms, virtual reality, augmented reality) improve realism in the existing questions surrounding virtual interactions for telepresence, privacy, security and society’s conferencing, gaming, etc. definition of humanity. 4. Spying on Myself Sousveillance is the wearing of audio or video recording devices used to As the devices enter the document the wearer’s activities throughout mainstream, the cost for R&D will the day with a first person perspective—the drop, and more organisations will reverse of surveillance. The technique has been adopted by those in a variety of be able to utilize the devices to occupations for legal protection and their full potential. Employees will professional gain. also want to wear their devices to 5. Thinking Outside the Brain Brain-computer interaction has broken out of the lab and work, and organisations will have medical sector and entered the consumer to decide how to regulate their market. The current products are simplified use. and struggling to find a viable application, but they also present a new method for If you need help making sense interfacing with devices as well as of wearables or any other measuring physical activity. 6. Wearing My Password Biometric potential issues for your authentication is the manner of identifying a organization, please contact us person through their unique physical or at Shaping Tomorrow for a no- behavioral traits. Fingerprint authentication has been common in recent years for obligation strategic laptops and phones. Measuring a person’s conversation. unique brain waves and heart rate are two of the leading methods for wearables which SHAPING TOMORROW FOR ESIGHT GIST: WEARABL ES may combine to provide multi-step specials, social networking (both on screen authentication methods for improved and off), security concerns, etc. Much of this security and convenience. benefit is already available on current smart 7. Feeling the Data Tactile displays have been phone apps, but they are under-utilized and used for decades by people with sensory often ignored due in part to smartphones impairments, but researchers have been being hidden in pockets or bags. looking to use haptic feedback for fully 5. Security—Bringing the technology closer to capable people. Currently vibrations can the body will frustrate (though certainly not communicate the receiving of message completely deter) thieves. More importantly, notifications and GPS directions, but they wearers will also pay more attention to may be effective in communicating text for nearby hazards as they gain greater increased multitasking and private awareness of their immediate surroundings. messaging. Wearables will also increase the number of These seven functions collectively offer seven authentication steps required for various core benefits that will evolve as the technology accounts while being more convenient to advances. Wearables will offer more benefits than sign in—expanding the application of automated preference settings to the real these seven, but these core benefits represent the world (e.g. brightness of lights, music applications upon which the current market is playlists, product wish lists for in store focused: advertising). 1. Immediacy—Because wearables are not 6. Memory—Wearables will not only access hidden in a pocket, they will accelerate information from outside sources more access to information thereby improving conveniently, thereby playing the role of efficiency and reducing lost time. memory for the wearer, but wearables can 2. Consistency—Wearables will also constantly record and archive all the data wearers monitor and communicate with the wearer produce. And they will record the actions the and their environment to create a consistent wearer took to produce that data allowing stream of data. the wearer to remember and gain insight 3. Freedom—Wearables are hands-free and time from their activities. saving devices that will liberate the wearer 7. Optimization—All of these benefits will for greater multitasking or reducing stress combine to help wearers live their lives at during down time (i.e. no more checking for peak performance and optimize the wearers’ notifications that aren’t there or aren’t interaction with data’s ever expanding relevant). volume, variety and velocity. Whether the 4. Awareness—Wearers will be more data is personal, professional or educational; immediately aware of their location and wearables will provide an edge to exploit the surroundings for local events, shopping data. THE NUMBERS The Global 1000 will garner 5% of their sales from the data collected from wearables. Roughly 2/3 of consumers plan to purchase an Internet of Things device for their home in the next 5 years. Wearables ownership will increase from 7%in 2014 to 14% in 2015. 14% of consumers want to buy smart clothing and 16% want to buy a head mounted display. By 2017, 64 million wearables will be FIGURE 4 PERCENTAGE OF WEARABLES OWNERSHIP WILL DOUBLE IN 2015 (IMAGE SOURCE: EDITOR) shipped to the global market and double to 130 million by 2018 to gross close to $6 billion. SHAPING TOMORROW FOR ESIGHT GIST: WEARABL ES THE GIST Smartwatches prove even more valuable as leading brands 25% of consumers plan to buy a smartwatch in combine their systems with the wider health the next five years. industry. The success, however modest, of smartwatches Wearables and their sensors will need to indicates that the electronics industry and their become more robust for consumers to use them target demographic are keen for ever more in every aspect of their lives as manufacturers portable and convenient electronic devices.