2019 Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region

SOUTHEAST ASIA The pearl of the maritime silk road

太平再保险（中国）有限公司北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院 TAIPING REINSURANCE(CHINA)CO,.LTD. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University JOINT RESEARCH CENTER FOR DISASTER AND RISK MANAGEMENT Preface

When Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Southeast Asia (SEA) in September and October of 2013, he raised the initiative of jointly building the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road (hereinafter referred to as the Belt and Road), aiming to build a community of shared interests, destiny, and responsibility that features political mutual trust, economic integration, and cultural inclusiveness. With the concerted efforts of all parties, the connectivity framework of "Six Corridors, Six Roads, Multiple Countries, and Multiple Ports" has basically taken shape, and a number of cooperative projects have taken root.

In order to actively respond to the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by President Xi, and serve the strategic deployment with improved coordination in pursuing the "buy in" and "go global", the Taiping Reinsurance (China) Co., Ltd. and Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management of Beijing Normal University (ADREM-BNU), in accordance with the principle of strong joint complementary advantages and coordinated development, have set up a Joint Research Center for Disaster and Risk Management. The center will jointly carry out focus studies on risks along the Belt and Road, and will periodically publish in the Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region series. These efforts will provide scientific support for decision-making for country governments along the Belt and Road to reduce natural disaster risk, provide comprehensive risk management consultant services for Chinese enterprises "going global", help promote the ability of the insurance industry to handle risk, and better play the role of disaster risk science and insurance research in national disaster risk reduction (DRR) and development of the Belt and Road.

In 2019, the Special Report selected SEA, an important region in the maritime silk road, as its annual focus of analysis. Based on detailed data, the report analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of historical natural disasters in SEA, and the main causes of large-scale disasters in the region. On this basis, it conducted focused analysis of earthquake and volcano threats, and simulated the increasing hydro-meteorological disaster risk in the warming climate. It also carried out disaster exposure analysis for transportation infrastructures that are critical for promoting connectivity in the Belt and Road initiative. The development of non-life insurance and their role in transferring risks were also discussed. Based on the above analyses, suggestions for integrated disaster risk governance were provided.

The report aims to provide reference for local governments and other stakeholders in SEA, enterprises and institutions from China, and people from the international community who are concerned about the disaster and risk in the Belt and Road region. The ultimate goal is to contribute to DRR for local areas and Chinese enterprises operating businesses there, and further strengthen cooperation in economy, culture, and DRR between SEA countries and China.

Pang, Wei, Senior Economist Shi, Peijun, Professor Taiping Reinsurance (China) Co., Ltd. Deputy Dean, Academy of Disaster Reduction Party Secretary, General Manager and Emergency, Management Ministry of Disaster Management & Ministry of Education President, Qinghai Normal University Preface

Editorial committee Southeast Asia (SEA) is the pearl of the In addition to the extremely high hazard subway station), 17 bridges, 4 airports, and Maritime Silk Road and occupies a pivotal intensity, the relatively low prevention 2 ports. According to hazard exposure Series editor position in the "Belt and Road" initiative. capacity and weak monitoring and analysis, 10.3% of the road sections, 28.6% Peijun Shi Wei Pang Located at the "crossroads" between Asia early-warning capabilities are also among of the railway sections, 3 bridges, 1 airport, and Oceania, the Pacific Ocean, and the the key factors contributing to devastating and 2 ports are exposed to medium-to-high Indian Ocean, SEA has a land area of 5.6% losses. potential earthquake damage. Similarly, Members of the 2019 report team (sorted alphabetically) of the "Belt and Road" region (that includes 18.5% of the road sections, 14.9% of the Danling Chai Kaiwen Li Lisong Li Xinli Liao Kai Liu Weihang Liu 72 countries and regions along the route), SEA’s ability to effectively reduce railway sections, and 2 airports are exposed Yong Lu Qingyang Mu Kaixun Wang Han Wang Ming Wang Mingzhong Wang carrying 13.2% of the region's population casualties and property losses falls to high potential flood damage; 72.6% of the and 10.6% of its gross domestic product relatively behind its corresponding level road mileage, 33.5% of railway mileage, 5 Qianzhi Wang Caixia Wu Wei Xu Tao Ye Yafu Yu Li Zhang (GDP). Additionally, 26.7% of disaster of economic development. SEA’s death toll bridges, and 3 airports are exposed to high Yong Zhang Junlin Zhang Jiatong Zhu events, 5-10% of disaster victims, 25% of per million people and economic loss as a potential damage from tropical cyclones. disaster deaths, and 13.5% of disaster share of the gross domestic product (GDP) There is a need for better disaster risk economic losses occurred in SEA. due to disasters rank at the top 25% and governance to avoid losses during 15% worldwide, respectively. infrastructure construction. SEA is facing natural disasters with Correspondingly, its GDP per capita ranks at greater frequency and intensity, as well as top 57% worldwide. Insurance and reinsurance should play a Supporting institutions large losses and significant regional more important role in SEA disaster risk differences. SEA faces severe earthquake and transfer. Since 1980, the frequencies of natural volcanic disaster risks, and climate The non-life insurance density of major SEA Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency, Management Ministry of Disaster Management & Ministry of Education disasters, death tolls, and economic losses change will further increase the risk of countries has significantly increased since Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Beijing Normal University in SEA have shown a significant increase. extreme events. 2007, but has stagnated since 2012. The China Taiping Insurance Group Ltd. Floods and tropical cyclones (typhoons) Since 1900, every year, SEA experienced 2 non-life insurance penetration grew slowly Secretariat of UNDRR Asia- Pacific Science Technology and Academia Advisory Group were the most frequent and caused the earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher and and reached only 2% in 2017. The pairing Future Earth Core Science Project – Integrated Risk Governance largest economic losses, while earthquakes 7.5 volcanic eruptions. Compared with the between non-life insurance penetration and and tropical cyclones caused the highest historical period, annual average heat wave GDP per capita of SEA is close to the global casualties. days in SEA in the 2030s and 2050s will average. However, in past large-scale increase by approximately 5% and 8%, disasters, insurance indemnity was rather The regional differences in historical annual average rainfall from rainstorms will limited, while the large-scale disasters disasters in SEA are obvious. The Philippine increase by approximately 7% and 12%, the severely influenced regional insurance and Acknowledgement islands and the east and west parts of the annual average population exposure to heat reinsurance markets. Indochina Peninsula are mainly affected by waves will increase by 8.6 and 14.7 times, tropical cyclones from the northwest Pacific the annual average mortality during heat For better management of disaster risk, National Key Research and Development Program ”Global Change Risk of Ocean and the Indian Ocean. The southern waves will increase by 3.5 and 8.5 times, the SEA needs to further understand and Population and Economic System: Mechanisms and Assessments" Indonesian islands are mainly affected by annual average maximal mortality in floods assess natural disaster risk, promote (2016YFA0602400) earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and will increase by 4.1 and 7.2 times, and the disaster prevention capacity in terms of both tsunamis, while the Indochina Peninsula has annual average maximal economic loss engineering and non-engineering aspects, long been severely threatened by floods. claimed by floods will increase by 31.6 and establish a regional integrated risk National Key Research and Development Program "Research and Demonstration of 48.2 times under the RCP4.5-SSP2 scenario, governance information platform, enhance Technology for Large-scale Disaster Assessment, Relief, Recovery and SEA is under severe threats from large-scale respectively. the resilience of critical infrastructures, build Reconstruction" (2017YFC1502900) disasters. The 2004 Indian Ocean resilient production and supply chains, Earthquake–Tsunami and the 2008 Tropical As the infrastructure investment in SEA establish a regional disaster risk transfer and Storm “Nargis” are among the deadliest accelerates, the infrastructure exposure sharing mechanism, and set up a combined disasters worldwide since 1980. The 2011 to major hazards will significantly intra-regional coordination mechanism for Thailand flood and the 2013 super typhoon increase. Currently, infrastructure projects in disaster risk governance. “Haiyan” (also known as Yolanda) are among SEA with Chinese participation include 10 the costliest disasters worldwide since 1980. highways, 13 railway lines (including 1 Executive summary

01 05

Natural environment and Rapid growth in infrastructure development status investment and disaster exposure P5-P6 P31-P37 02 06

Historical disasters Insurance could play more important P9-P16 roles in disaster risk transfer P39-P44 03 07

Severe threats from earthquakes Suggestions to promote disaster and volcanos risk governance in SEA P19-P20 P47-P48 04 08

Climate change is increasing extreme Appendix climate event risks P50-P53 P23-P28 Outline

01 05

Natural environment and Rapid growth in infrastructure development status investment and disaster exposure P5-P6 P31-P37 02 06

Historical disasters Insurance could play more important P9-P16 roles in disaster risk transfer P39-P44 03 07

Severe threats from earthquakes Suggestions to promote disaster and volcanos risk governance in SEA P19-P20 P47-P48 04 08

Climate change is increasing extreme Appendix climate event risks P50-P53 P23-P28 On October 3, 2013, Chinese President Xi, Jinping delivered a speech titled "Towards A Key figures of SEA in the Belt and Road region Closer ASEAN-China Community of Shared Future" to the Indonesian parliament, proposing to jointly build the "21st century Maritime Silk Road". He said that Southeast 26.68% Asia (SEA) has been an important hub of the "Maritime Silk Road" since ancient times. 25.74% China will strengthen maritime cooperation with The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to jointly build the "Maritime Silk Road" for the 21st century. China is ready to expand pragmatic cooperation with ASEAN countries in various fields, 13.19% 13.04% 10.64% share what they have, and draw on each other's strengths, as well as share opportunities and jointly meet challenges with ASEAN countries to realize common development and 5.6% prosperity.

SEA is located at the junction of the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, with longitude of 92° to 140°E and latitude of 10° to 26°N. It is composed of the Indo-China Peninsula and the Malay islands, covering an area of about 4.57 million km2, and comprises a total Land area Population Disaster Frequency Casulty Economic Loss GDP of 11 countries: Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and East Timor.

Because of the unique geographical location and the regular trade winds, SEA has been and will continue to be an important trade hub. SEA has devoted itself to open maritime trade since Funan in the first century AD. At the beginning of the 5th century, with the development of spice trading, navigation, and shipbuilding technologies, frequent east-west trading occurred through the Strait of Malacca. In the 11th and 12th centuries, the Philippine Sea became active due to the participation of Chinese merchants. At the same time, trade in the Bay of Bengal rapidly developed, and the entire SEA trade circle became active. In the new maritime navigation era, the trade environment was gradually established, and entrepot trading and spice trading were two dominant trade modes in the Strait of Malacca, an important maritime traffic artery.

In the process of the development of trade in SEA, the rich products of each country and their management and opening policies to the trade market have resulted in the Maritime Silk Road still being alive today. At the same time, the development and prosperity of the Maritime Silk Road also exerted a huge and far-reaching impact on the political, economic, and cultural life of the people in SEA, and greatly promoted the social and historical development in this area. On October 3, 2013, Chinese President Xi, Jinping delivered a speech titled "Towards A Key figures of SEA in the Belt and Road region Closer ASEAN-China Community of Shared Future" to the Indonesian parliament, proposing to jointly build the "21st century Maritime Silk Road". He said that Southeast 26.68% Asia (SEA) has been an important hub of the "Maritime Silk Road" since ancient times. 25.74% China will strengthen maritime cooperation with The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to jointly build the "Maritime Silk Road" for the 21st century. China is ready to expand pragmatic cooperation with ASEAN countries in various fields, 13.19% 13.04% 10.64% share what they have, and draw on each other's strengths, as well as share opportunities and jointly meet challenges with ASEAN countries to realize common development and 5.6% prosperity.

Elevation and topography Demographic features

The average land elevation of SEA is approximately SEA is one of the most densely populated areas in 377m, with great topographic relief. It is divided into the world, and in 2015, the population density was the Indochina Peninsula and the Malay measured at 848 persons/km2. Of the entire region, Archipelago. The Indochina Peninsula is interlaced Singapore has the highest population density with with mountains and rivers. The northern part of the approximately 7916 persons/km2, and Laos has the peninsula is relatively high, with mountains lowest population density with approximately 30 extending southward in a palm-like manner. The persons/km2. From the perspective of topography, lower reaches of the great river and the estuary are the population is concentrated in the plains and the alluvial plains. The Malay Archipelago has a rugged estuary deltas; from the perspective of terrain with a narrow coastal plain. It is located at administrative division, the population is mainly the junction of the Eurasian and Indian Plates, distributed in political centers or economic centers, where volcanic and earthquake activities are such as Ho Chi Minh in Vietnam, Kuala Lumpur in intense. Malaysia, Yangon in Myanmar, Bangkok in Thailand, and Jakarta in Indonesia.

Plate tectonic features Economic characteristics

SEA is located in the subduction and collision zone In 2015, Indonesia had the highest GDP among of the Eurasian, Indian, and Pacific Plates. Affected SEA countries (US$470 billion), while Timor-Leste by the compression and collision of the three had the lowest (US$2.1 billion). The GDP of tectonic plates, the two major volcanic earthquake Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and other zones in the world were formed: the countries is approximately US$200 billion. The Mediterranean-Himalayan volcanic earthquake economic development gaps between SEA zone and the Pacific Rim volcanic earthquake zone. countries are huge. Singapore's economy is The seismic and volcanic activities are most prosperous, and its living standard has reached frequent in Indonesia, Philippines, and Myanmar. that of developed countries. In contrast, Vietnam, Due to its unique location, SEA is severely the Philippines, and Indonesia are relatively threatened by earthquakes and volcanoes. underdeveloped, and their economies focus on tourism, basic manufacturing, agriculture, and fishing.

Source：Metcalfe,2005

Tropical cyclones Trade with China

SEA is mainly affected by tropical cyclones from the SEA mainly exports machinery, transportation Indian Ocean and the northwest Pacific Ocean. equipment, fossil fuels, lubricating oils, and related Tropical cyclones can bring abundant rainfall, but substances, as well as non-edible raw materials their winds are destructive. The northwest Pacific other than fuels to China. China mainly exports Ocean, where SEA is located, is the most active machinery, transportation equipment, basin on Earth in terms of tropical cyclones, manufactured products classified by material, and accounting for one-third of all tropical cyclone miscellaneous manufactured products to SEA. The activity worldwide. On average, 26 tropical largest SEA exporter to China is Malaysia, with a cyclones are generated every year in the northwest total trade value of US$54.4 billion in 2017. The Pacific. largest SEA importer from China is Vietnam, with a total trade value of US$71.6 billion in 2017.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 05 Natural environment Development status 06

Elevation and topography Demographic features

Plate tectonic features Economic characteristics

Source：Metcalfe,2005

Tropical cyclones Trade with China

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 02Historical disasters 02Historical disasters 09 Increasing disaster frequency and loss Significant regional and national differences 10

Occurrence frequency Occurrence frequency

From 1980 to 2018, the frequency of natural There are relatively small differences among SEA disasters in SEA increased by 0.94 events per year countries in the frequency of total disaster on average. Since 2000, the average annual occurrences. The Philippines and Indonesia occurrence of disasters is 49. The year that topped experienced more disasters (485 and 396 the number of annual disaster events was 2011, respectively), while Singapore had fewer disasters with 66. Even in the best years, there were still as due to its limited land area. The main types of many as 17 disasters that occurred. The most disasters in this region are floods and storms, which frequent disasters are floods (585 events) and account for over 50% of the total disasters. tropical cyclones (441 events), accounting for 30.35% and 22.88%, respectively, of all disasters in SEA in the past 39 years

Death toll Death toll

From 1980 to 2018, with the exception of From 1980 to 2018, there were significant large-scale disasters, the death toll in SEA differences in the death toll in SEA countries. exhibited a slight upward trend, with an average Indonesia and Myanmar had the largest death toll, annual increase of 34 people. Among all types of at 190,000 and 140,000, respectively. In the east disasters, tropical cyclones and earthquakes and west parts of the Indochina Peninsula and the caused the most deaths, with a total of 188,000 and Philippines, the death toll was mainly caused by 195,000 deaths, respectively, accounting for 93% tropical cyclones. Floods accounted for most of the of all population loss. Tropical cyclone disasters deaths elsewhere in the Indochina peninsula. In the dominated the death toll in SEA, and the southern part of SEA, the Indonesian islands, the typhoon-rainstorm-flood disaster chain causes a majority of the deaths were caused by large number of casualties every year. earthquakes.

Economic losses Economic losses

From 1980 to 2018, the direct economic losses From 1980 to 2018, countries in SEA showed from disasters in SEA showed an increasing trend, significant differences in disaster losses. The with an average annual increase of US$250 million, Philippines and Thailand suffered from the largest which is below the overall GDP growth rate of SEA economic loss, totaling more than US$104.3 billion (US$70 billion/year). Among all types of natural (2018 US$). East Timor and Singapore had the disasters, floods and tropical cyclones caused the smallest value, with a total of only US$4.23 million. largest share of economic losses, accounting for For countries in the west and east parts of the 46.12% and 26.10% of the total loss, respectively. Indochina Peninsula and in the northwest Pacific Ocean, economic losses were mainly caused by tropical cyclones. In the central region of the Indochina Peninsula, more than 80% of the disaster losses were caused by floods. In Malaysia, floods accounted for more than 60% of the total loss. The Indonesian Archipelago had a higher proportion of economic loss caused by earthquakes.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 09 Increasing disaster frequency and loss Significant regional and national differences 10

Occurrence frequency Occurrence frequency

Death toll Death toll

Economic losses Economic losses

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 11 Disaster Loss vs. Economic Development Threats from large-scale disasters 12

Global record-setting SEA is a typical disaster-prone area with frequent large-scale disasters. Since 1980, there have been several catastrophes very large-scale disasters, causing huge numbers of casualties and economic losses. Several of these events were among the deadliest or costliest disasters worldwide, including the 2004 Indian Ocean Death toll per million people Earthquake-Tsunami disaster, 2008 Tropical Storm Nargis, 2011 Thailand floods, and 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan. The overall death toll in SEA due to disasters during 2010-2016 was 4.9 per million people, ranking at the top 24.6% among 131 countries and districts analyzed. Correspondingly, the GDP per capita of SEA is US$9,260 per person, ranking at The deadliest Economic the top 51.4% among the above countries and disasters in SEA Rank Date Affected Countries Type Death Toll Loss (US$bn) districts analyzed, which is relatively higher than since 1980 the ranking of the population loss. 1 2004.12.26 Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar Earthquake 227,898 21.4

When the death toll per million people and GDP 2 2008.05.02 Myanmar Tropical Cyclone 138,366 16.1 per capita were plotted against each other, SEA 3 2013.11.08 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 7354 10.9 lies higher than the average (fitting line) of 131 countries and districts analyzed, and locates to the 4 1991.11.05 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 5956 0.3 upper left of China (lower developed level and 5 2006.05.26 Indonesia Earthquake 5778 4.3 Note: The death toll per million people presented in the figure is the annual average from 2010 to 2016, and higher mortality rate). It indicates that SEA’s ability its corresponding annual values are computed by dividing the death toll of a year by the population of the to control casualties in disasters falls relatively 6 1997.11.02 Vietnam Tropical Cyclone 3111 0.6 previous year. There were 131 countries and districts around the world that were included. The death toll behind its corresponding development level. data were obtained from the global disaster database of Catholic University of Leuven (Emergency Events 7 2018.09.28 Indonesia Earthquake 4340 1.0 Database [EM-DAT]; http://www.emdat.be/). Population and GDP (Purchase Power Parity GDP, GDP-PPP) data were obtained from World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/). 8 1992.12.12 Indonesia Earthquake 2500 0.3

9 1990.07.16 Philippines Earthquake 2412 1.1

10 2012.12.04 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 1901 1.0

Note: Economic losses are measured with 2018 US$. Data listed considered various sources including EM-DAT, Swiss Re, and Wikipedia etc.

Direct economic losses as a share of GDP

The share of direct economic loss in GDP during The costliest disasters Economic 2010-2016 is 0.62%, ranking the top 15% in the in SEA since 1980 Rank Date Affected Countries Type Death Toll Loss (US$bn) 119 countries and districts analyzed. Correspondingly, the GDP per capita of SEA ranks 1 2011.08.05 Thailand Flood 813 46.1 in the top 56.6% in the 119 countries and districts 2 2004.12.26 Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Myanmar Earthquake 227,898 21.4 analyzed, which is significantly higher than the GDP loss ratio. 3 2008.05.02 Myanmar Tropical Cyclone 138,366 16.1

4 2013.11.08 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 7354 10.9 When the share of direct economic loss in GDP and GDP per capita were plotted together, SEA lies 5 2006.05.26 Indonesia Earthquake 5778 4.3 higher than the average (fitting line) of the 119 countries and districts analyzed. SEA also locates 6 2012.12.04 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 1901 1.2 to the upper left of China, namely at a lower 7 1984.09.01 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 1399 1.2 development level and GDP loss rate. It indicates Note: The proportion of direct economic losses in GDP shown in the figure is the average from 2010 to 2016. that SEA’s ability to effectively prevent disaster 8 1990.07.16 Philippines Earthquake 2412 1.1 The data for the annual direct economic loss in each country and region over the years were obtained from damage and reduce economic losses falls behind the global disaster database of Catholic University of Leuven (EM-DAT; http://www.emdat.be/). The 9 2018.09.28 Indonesia Earthquake 4340 1.0 its corresponding level of development. population data were obtained from World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/), and the GDP data comes from the world bank's GDP-PPP (Purchase Power Parity GDP) for 2018. 10 1997.11.02 Vietnam Tropical Cyclone 3111 0.6

Note: Economic losses are measured with 2018 US$. Data listed considered various sources including EM-DAT, Swiss Re, and Wikipedia etc.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 11 Disaster Loss vs. Economic Development Threats from large-scale disasters 12

9 1990.07.16 Philippines Earthquake 2412 1.1

10 2012.12.04 Philippines Tropical Cyclone 1901 1.0

Note: Economic losses are measured with 2018 US$. Data listed considered various sources including EM-DAT, Swiss Re, and Wikipedia etc.

Direct economic losses as a share of GDP

Note: Economic losses are measured with 2018 US$. Data listed considered various sources including EM-DAT, Swiss Re, and Wikipedia etc.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 13 Earthquake-Tsunami Disaster: 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake–Tsunami Tropical Storm: Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008 14

The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami (also known as the Disaster loss Cyclone Nargis developed on April 27, 2008 in the central area of the Boxing Day Tsunami) occurred on 26 December, with an epicenter Bay of Bengal. Its peak wind speed reached 200 km/h on May 2. The Division Town Death Missing off the west coast of northern Sumatra Island. It triggered a tsunami cyclone made landfall in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar, and Casualties: According to the US Geological Survey, this with wave heights up to 30 meters. The earthquake-tsunami disaster earthquake-tsunami caused a death toll of 227,898, making it the the storm gradually weakened until dissipating near the border of Napudaw 4178 10 killed 220,000 people in 14 countries, and had serious impacts on Myanmar and Thailand. Nargis caused nearly 85,000 deaths and deadliest disaster to date. Most of the loss of life was caused by Labutta 33344 48464 the Indian Ocean coast. This disaster is also the world’s deadliest tsunami, and occurred near Sumatra, Indonesia. 54,000 missing in the Ayeyarwady Delta. It was the most severe event since 1980. natural disaster thus far in Myanmar, and its casualties rank second in Mawgyun 5250 2127 Ayeyarwady SEA. Economic losses: The total economic losses were estimated at $14 Phyarpone 1258 10 billion, 75% of which came from Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Bogale 34744 3198 India. These losses include damage to residential houses, The intensification and characteristics of Nargis commercial buildings, infrastructures including roads, water supply Kyeik Latt 12 - Two intensifying processes: Nargis intensified into a super tropical systems, power systems, schools, hospitals, and other medical Dadeye 4111 19 facilities. The most devastating impact occurred in Indonesia, storm on the afternoon of April 29, with a maximum lasting wind especially in Banda Aceh, with a total economic loss of $4.5 billion speed of 200 km/h and a maximum central wind scale of 12. The Sub-total 82897 53828 (original values). other was on May 1, when it once again intensified into a super Thanlynn 3 7 tropical storm. The storm landed in the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar on May 2, with a central wind scale of 16. Kyauktan 13 - Economic Insurance GDP share of direct Kayan 1 - Country loss ($ million) loss ($ million) economic losses Heavy rainfall with storm surge occurred, and the total rainfall in Thone Kwa 6 - parts of the Ayeyarwady Division of Myanmar was over 600 mm, Indonesia 4,500 500 2.61% more than twice that of the average in the same period in history. The Yangon Twantay 25 - cyclone caused severe storm surges, with tidal levels reaching 3.5 Thailand 1,000 500 0.32% Kawhmu 130 - m in some areas. Kungyangon 1446 - Sri Lanka 1,000 100 6.04% Dala 14 1 India 1,000 100 0.29% Seikkyi Kanaungto 2 - Maldives 1,000 50 65.47% Sub-total 1640 8

Sources: Risk Management Solutions, Managing Tsunami Risk in the Aftermath of the 2004 Total 84537 53836 Indian Ocean Earthquake & Tsunami Source: Government of the Union of Myanmar, ASEAN and UN. 2008. Post-Nargis Joint Factors contributed to devastating loss Assessment.

Extreme intensity: With a magnitude of 9.3, the main shock became Factors contributed to devastating loss Banda Aceh, Sumatra, Indonesia – before and after the Boxing Day tsunami in 2004 (Source: DigitalGlobe ） the largest earthquake since the 1964 M9.2 in Alaska and the second largest to date (the largest was the 1960 Chile M9.3 earthquake). This Extreme rainfall and huge storm surge. The landing point of the tsunami landed at a wave height of 24 m and penetrated more than 2 Ayeyarwady River Delta is less than 5 m, and the total rainfall Earthquake-tsunami process km inland. exceeded 600 mm. This triggered a storm surge of 3.5 m, and caused a flood that inundated nearly 50% of the houses in low-lying Earthquake: The main shock occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on December The lack of early-warning systems: There was no tsunami monitoring areas and destroyed power and transportation facilities. 26, 2004. The hypo center was approximately 160km north of the or early-warning systems in the Indian Ocean in 2004. No tsunami Indian Ocean to the north of Simeulue Island on the west coast of warnings were issued in countries where the tsunami wave travelled High exposure and vulnerability. The Ayeyarwady Delta has a large Sumatra. The focal depth was 30km below the mean sea level, and Track and intensity of Nargis population density, and its economy is dominated by agriculture and for more than one hour before it arrived at its destination, such as Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/8727/heavy-rain-from-cyclone-nargis the magnitude was 9.3 on the Richter scale. The epicenter was Thailand, India, and Sri Lanka. Most people (including foreign fisheries. The rural residents accounted for the majority, and the located approximately 250km south-southeast of Banda Aceh, the tourists) in the disaster areas were not aware that the changes in transportation and economy were relatively undeveloped. In the capital of the Aceh province in northern Sumatra, Indonesia. The water levels on the beaches were indicating that a tsunami was The losses caused by Nargis coastal areas with flat terrain, mangroves were deforested, no dikes main fault rupture zone was 90 km wide and extended along the 1200 imminent, and they also had little knowledge of preparedness and were built, and there were no risk assessment measures or km fault to the Andaman island chain (Aon Benfield, 2015). evacuation. Therefore, this disaster reveals that severe problems Nargis had a severe impact on Yangon, Ayeyarwady, Pegu, Mon emergency plans. developed because there was no monitoring for tsunamis and no State, and Karen in Myanmar. By June 24, 2008, there were 84,537 Tsunami: The earthquake triggered a huge tsunami, affecting almost early-warning system was in place to inform the public and effectively people who were killed, 53,836 were missing, and 19,359 were Insufficient awareness of the local residents.The Meteorological all countries and districts around the Indian Ocean. The affected carry out a large-scale evacuation. injured; 2.4 million people was severely affected, 800,000 became Department of Myanmar issued a weather warning 6 days before the coastline was over 15,000km in length. It took from 15 minutes to 7 homeless, and 260,000 were living in resettlement sites. The direct storm’s landing. The Meteorological and Hydrological Bureau issued hours for the tsunami to reach the shorelines. On January 13, 2005, then Secretary-General Annan of the United economic loss was up to US$10 billion (original value). a notice of a strong tropical storm on April 27, and sent a briefing to Nations called for the establishment of a global disaster warning the national media on May 1. On the day of the storm landing (May 2), The maximum wave height of the tsunami was up to 30m (on the west system. In 2008, a global tsunami monitoring network containing 39 the storm was featured in all the headlines and stories in the local side of Banda Aceh, Indonesia). The wave height in southwestern deep-sea observatories was established. It publishes real-time sea newspapers. However, Nargis was the first strong tropical storm to Thailand was 4 to 8m. In the eastern part of Sri Lanka, the height was level fluctuation monitoring data to help countries effectively cope land in Myanmar in 40 years, and as a result, the public's awareness between 2.5 and 12m, with an average height of 5m. On the with tsunami disasters. of disaster prevention was very weak, the experience of disaster southeast coast of India, the tsunami wave averaged 3.5m. evacuation was nearly absent, and there was no effective response or preparation measures.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 13 Earthquake-Tsunami Disaster: 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake–Tsunami Tropical Storm: Cyclone Nargis, Myanmar, 2008 14

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 15 Typhoon-Rainstorm Disaster: Super Typhoon Haiyan, 2013 Rainstorm-flood disaster: 2011 floods in Thailand 16

Super Typhoon Haiyan (also known as Tropical Storm Yolanda), was The loss from Haiyan From July 2011 to January 2012, continuous monsoon rainfall and The disaster had a profound impact on Thailand's overall economic formed in the western Pacific on the morning of November 2, 2013. It multiple tropical storms resulted in rivers that burst their banks, and growth. The Office of Fiscal Policy forecasted an annual GDP growth landed in the Philippines on November 8, then successively made Haiyan affected 41 provinces of the Philippines, which affected flooding that occurred in the central, northeast, and northern rate of 4.5%, but revised this to 1.7% at the peak period of the flood, landfall in Vietnam and China, and finally dissipated in Guangxi more than 12.2 million people, resulting in 6,009 deaths, 27,022 provinces of Thailand. The floods inundated two-thirds of the and issued an actual rate of 1.1%. More than 1.5 trillion baht (US$50 Province, China, on November 11. Haiyan broke the record of injuries, and 1,779 missing. Nearly 600,000 houses were completely country, destroyed more than 20 thousand km2 of farmlands, killed billion) was required for recovery and reconstruction. typhoon Megi in 2010 in terms of intensity, and became the second destroyed, which resulted in nearly 4 million people becoming 815 people (3 missing), affected 13.6 million people, and caused strongest tropical cyclone recorded in the northwest Pacific Ocean homeless. The economic loss was estimated to be US$3.64 billion 1.425 trillion baht (US$ 46.5 billion) of economic loss. The flood after typhoon Tip in 1979. It is also set a world record for the typhoon disrupted the manufacturing supply chain, severely affected global (original value) in the Philippines. Local power, communication, and Economic loss with the highest wind speed upon landfall. car production, and led to global shortages of computer magnetic Departments Notes water supply systems were severely damaged, and many provinces (Billion Thai baht) in the central region were unable to communicate with the outside. hard disks, and a fall in global industrial production by 2.5%. Most of the losses occurred Manufacturing 1007 The characteristics of Super Typhoon Haiyan in industrial plants Chao phraya river in Ayutthaya Chao phraya river in Ayutthaya Lost tourism revenue Fast-moving speed. Haiyan moved at a speed of 30-35 km/h province⸺july 11,2011 province⸺October 23,2011 Tourism 95 horizontally for most of the time (15-20 km/h is the average for most in six months tropical cyclones), 35-40 km/h when it was in the Philippines, and Includes structural and Housing/ 84 40-45 km/h when it was south of China's Xisha Islands; sometimes personal property indoor property damage its speed went beyond 50 km/h. Its rapid movement reduced the amount of time for effective warnings in the Philippines, and warning Agriculture 40 Agricultural production loss upgrades had to be rushed.

Large-scale strong rainfall. Before and after the typhoon landed, the Industry/manufacturing: A total of 9,859 factories were slightly daily precipitation in most parts of the Philippines exceeded 100 damaged and 7,510 industrial and manufacturing factories were mm, and in some areas, it exceeded 200 mm. On November 5-12, damaged by the floods. Thailand's industrial production index fell 2013, the total rainfall of Leyte Island in the north-central Philippines 35.8% in November from a year earlier. Auto production fell by 61.3%, was over 500 mm, and it exceeded 685 mm in the southeast corner. hard disk production fell by 52.4%, and electronic parts

Rainstorms south of the Yangtze River and in southern China were Flood inundation in Ayutthaya Province in 2011 Thailand flood manufacturing declined by 45.5%. In the fourth quarter of the year, affected by Haiyan and lasted for 3 days. The total rainfall in most Source: NASA. national exports decreased by US$7.9 billion as floods hampered parts of Hainan, central and southern Guangxi, southwestern manufacturing production (Aon Benfield, 2012). Guangdong, and central Jiangxi of China exceeded 100 mm, and Source: Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and The rainstorm and flood process the cumulative rainfall in northwestern Guangxi reached 357 mm. USAID, 2013 Factors contributing to the devastating loss Precipitation: The precipitation in Thailand from January to October The sea surface where the eye of A huge storm surge was triggered. Factors contributed to devastating loss in 2011 was 1,781 mm, the highest since 1961. It was also 35% Haiyan passed through is subject to strong low pressure, and then The coupling of rainfall pattern and topography. The area affected by higher than the multi-annual average for the same period over the this flood was mainly the Chao Phraya river basin in Thailand. In the superimposed with high tide and large waves as the storm changes The hazard intensity was very high for this typhoon. Haiyan had a past 50 years. The total rainfall from July to September was 1156 upper reaches, the terrain is steep, the river is narrow and swift, and its path. This formed a huge storm surge of 6 m, which almost lasting wind speed of 89 m/s upon landing, total rainfall up to 500 mm, the highest since records began in 1901. The largest positive the runoff speed is fast. Excessive rainfall in the upper reaches of the completely destroyed the buildings, transportation, and power mm in some areas, fast movement speed (35-40 km/h), and huge anomaly occurred in the south, while the northern regions received river from the monsoon and tropical storms put enormous pressure facilities in the coastal area. Storm surge is the main reason for the impact area (Philippines, South Vietnam, and China). Because of its 600 mm more rain than the average amount (Gale and Saunders, on the reservoirs, forcing them to release water at a critical moment. deaths and losses caused by Haiyan. intensity, it was estimated to be the type of typhoon that would occur 2013). The middle and southern part of the basin is relatively flat (the slope only once every 100 years. A storm surge of up to 6 m was formed is only 1.5 m/100 km), and the flow rate is rather slow. Consequently, in the Philippines, and it penetrated up to 1 km inland. Flood: The unusual precipitation led to the outburst of flooding. Over a massive inundation occurred due to the flooding. Land time, the flooded area moved southward. In late July, flash floods development greatly increased the amount of impermeable areas, Low prevention capability. The Philippines has a population of more affected many provinces in northern and northeastern Thailand. At occupied floodplains, and decreased the capacity of the than 100 million, and nearly 40% live in coastal cities that are prone the end of August, the flood reached a depth of 50 cm in the center environment to compensate for the flooding. Together with the to typhoons. Most of the buildings in the coastal areas are of Nangfu, breaking the 16-year record in Fisanock province. In influence of the topography and sea level, the water level did not constructed of light materials such as wood and thatch. The coastal October, most of Thailand's dams were reaching or exceeding their recede, which caused the flooding to last for a long time. wave protection facilities, urban drainage systems, and power and maximum capacity, forcing them to increase the discharge rate, transportation facilities are also very poor, causing delays, fatigue, which further exacerbated downstream flooding. Seven industrial Loss amplified by globalization. With the continuous progress of and low efficiency in pre-disaster relocation and post-disaster districts in and around Bangkok were flooded, and manufacturing globalization, Thailand has become a critical node in the global rescue. supply chains were severely disrupted. production and supply network. Local impacts in Thailand spread to other countries and districts along the tightly linked production and Week emergency response. The Philippines Meteorological supply chains, and had ripple-spreading effects among the upper, Department classified Haiyan as a typhoon 41 hours later than the Disaster losses middle, and lower parts of a chain, or even lead to inter-industry China National Meteorological Center and 36 hours later than the effects. The 2011 floods in Thailand actually reduced global industrial United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. In addition, the first The 2011 floods affected 64 of Thailand's 77 provinces, with 2.5 Track and intensity of typhoon Haiyan production by 2.5%. In the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter warning was issued at 23:00 on the night of November 6, and most million people needing evacuation, 13.6 million affected, 815 dead, 3 Source: NASA，2013 of 2012, hard disks were in short supply worldwide, and there was a people were actually informed on the morning of November 7, when missing, and 1.9 million households with house damage. According sharp increase in their prices. the situation had become very serious, and the effective evacuation to the World Bank, the estimated direct economic losses from the time left was less than 10 h. flood totaled 1.4 trillion baht (US$45.7 billion, original value). The private sector suffered 90% of the total loss, with only 6% in the public sector (Aon Benfield, 2012).

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 15 Typhoon-Rainstorm Disaster: Super Typhoon Haiyan, 2013 Rainstorm-flood disaster: 2011 floods in Thailand 16

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 03Severe threats from earthquakes and volcanos 03Severe threats from earthquakes and volcanos 19 Earthquake disasters Volcanic disasters 20

Distribution of active faults Number of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes from 1900 to 2018

There are eight major active faults in SEA. Most of On average, there were 7.5 volcanic eruptions them are distributed around the Philippines and every year. Indonesia. The two longest active faults are the Sumatra and Philippine Faults. The Sumatra Fault There were 5 volcanos, 6.0% of the total, with the was formed by the collision of the Eurasian and number of eruptions equal to or greater than 35.

Indian plates, and the Philippine Fault was formed There were 10 volcanos, 11.9% of the total, with the by the amalgamation of the Eurasian and Philippine number of eruptions from 20 to 34. plates. From 1900 to 2018, there were 236 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or above that There were 14 volcanos, 16.7% of the total, with the occurred in Southeast Asia, of which approximately number of eruptions from 10 to 19.

73% occurred in Indonesia and the Philippines, There were 12 volcanos, 14.3% of the total, with the and approximately 4.6% occurred in Myanmar. number of eruptions from 5 to 9.

There were 43 volcanos, 51.2% of the total, with the number of eruptions less than 5.

Number of people affected by volcanic eruptions from 1900 Seismic hazard map to 2018

Areas subject to light potential earthquake damage On average, 26,407 persons were affected by (with peak ground acceleration with a return period volcanic eruptions every year.

of 475 years, PGA, < 0.18 g) are distributed in There were 4 volcanic eruptions, 16.0% of the total, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Singapore, and with the affected population larger than 200,000. Kalimantan Island of Indonesia. Areas subject to moderate potential for seismic damage (PGA There were 7 volcanic eruptions, 28.0% of the total, ranging from 0.18 to 0.34 g) include most parts of with the affected population from 50,000 to 200,000.

Myanmar. Areas subject to moderate-to-heavy There were 6 volcanic eruptions, 24.0% of the total, potential for seismic damage (PGA ranging from with the affected population from 10,000 to 50,000. 0.34 to 0.65 g) include the Arakan Mountains and the western side of the Shan Plateau in Myanmar, There were 8 volcanic eruptions, 32.0% of the total, the Barisan Mountains in Sumatra Island in with the affected population less than 10,000. Indonesia, and East Timor. In areas where the PGA is greater than 0.65 g, mainly the Philippines, the Note: PGA < 0.092g, the potential earthquake damage is very light; 0.092 g < PGA < 0.18 g, the potential earthquake damage is light; 0.18 g < PGA <0.34 g, the potential earthquake damage is potential for seismic damage is very heavy. moderate; 0.34 g < PGA < 0.65 g, the potential earthquake damage is from moderate to heavy; 0.65 g Death toll from volcanic eruptions < PGA < 1.24 g, the potential earthquake damage is heavy; PGA > 1.24 g, the potential earthquake damage is very heavy. from 1900 to 2018

On average, 176 persons were killed by volcanic eruptions every year.

There were 5 volcanic eruptions, 20.0% of the total, with a death toll that was equal to or larger than 500.

There were 2 volcanic eruptions, 8.0% of the total, with the death toll from 100 to 500.

There were 5 volcanic eruptions, 20.0% of the total, with the death toll from 30 to 100.

There were 13 volcanic eruptions, 52.0% of the total, with the death toll less than 30.

Special Report of Disaster and Risk in the Belt and Road Region 2019 19 Earthquake disasters Volcanic disasters 20