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State of the California Current 2016–17: Still Anything but “Normal” in the North Brian K

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State of the California Current 2016–17: Still Anything but “Normal” in the North Brian K STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2016-2017: STILL ANYTHING BUT “NORMAL” IN THE NORTH CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 58, 2017 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2016–17: STILL ANYTHING BUT “NORMAL” IN THE NORTH BRIAN K. WELLS* RALF GOERICKE ROBERT M. SURYAN1,2, Fisheries Ecology Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography JULIA PARRISH3, Southwest Fisheries Science Center University of California, San Diego JANE DOLLIVER1, STEPHANIE LOREDO1, National Marine Fisheries Service 9500 Gilman Drive #0206, La Jolla, CA 92024 AND JESSICA M. PORQUEZ1 NOAA 1Department of Fisheries and Wildlife 110 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 RAPHAEL KUDELA1 AND Oregon State University [email protected] CLARISSA ANDERSON2,3 Hatfield Marine Science Center 1Ocean Sciences Department 2030 SE Marine Science Dr. ISAAC D. SCHROEDER1,2, University of California, Santa Cruz Newport, OR 97365 2 2 STEVEN J. BOGRAD , ELLIOTT L. HAZEN , 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 2Auke Bay Laboratories 1,2 2 MICHAEL G. JACOX , ANDREW LEISING , 2Institute of Marine Sciences Alaska Fisheries Science Center 3 AND NATHAN MANTUA University of California, Santa Cruz National Marine Fisheries Service 1University of California, Santa Cruz 100 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 NOAA Institute of Marine Sciences 3Southern California Coastal 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK 99801 100 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 Ocean Observing System 3School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences 2Environmental Research Division Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of Washington Southwest Fisheries Science Center University of California, San Diego 1122 NE Boat Street, Seattle, WA 98195 National Marine Fisheries Service 8880 Biological Grade, La Jolla, CA 92037 NOAA JEANNETTE E. ZAMON 99 Pacific Street, Suite 255A BERTHA E. LAVANIEGOS AND Point Adams Research Station Monterey, CA 93940 JOSE GOMEZ-VALDES Northwest Fisheries Science Center 3Fisheries Ecology Division Oceanology Division National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center Centro de Investigación Científica y NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Educación Superior de Ensenada 520 Heceta Place, Hammond, OR 97121 NOAA Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918 110 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 Zona Playitas C.P. 22860 Ensenada STEPHANIE R. SCHNEIDER1 AND Baja California, Mexico RICHARD T. GOLIGHTLY2 JARROD A. SANTORA 1Vertebrate Ecology Laboratory Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics RICHARD D. BRODEUR1, Moss Landing Marine Labs Center for Stock Assessment Research ELIZABETH A. DALY2, 8272 Moss Landing Road University of California, Santa Cruz CHERYL A. MORGAN2, Moss Landing, CA 95039 AND TOBY D. AUTH3 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 2Department of Wildlife 1Fish Ecology Division Humboldt State University 1 JENNIFER FISHER AND Northwest Fisheries Science Center 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521 WILLIAM. T. PETERSON2 National Marine Fisheries Service 1Cooperative Institute for NOAA PETE WARZYBOK, RUSSELL BRADLEY, Marine Resources Studies Hatfield Marine Science Center AND JAIME JAHNCKE Oregon State University 2030 SE Marine Science Dr. Point Blue Conservation Science Hatfield Marine Science Center Newport, OR 97365 3820 Cypress Dr., Suite 11 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR 97365 2Cooperative Institute for Petaluma, CA 94954 2Fish Ecology Division Marine Resources Studies Northwest Fisheries Science Center Oregon State University WILLIAM SYDEMAN National Marine Fisheries Service Hatfield Marine Science Center Farallon Institute for Advanced NOAA 2030 SE Marine Science Dr. Ecosystem Research Hatfield Marine Science Center Newport, OR 97365 101 H Street, Petaluma, CA 94952 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR 97365 3Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission SHARON R. MELIN Hatfield Marine Science Center 1 ERIC BJORKSTEDT AND 2030 SE Marine Science Dr. Marine Mammal Laboratory 2 ROXANNE R. ROBERTSON Newport, OR 97365 Alaska Fisheries Science Center 1Fisheries Ecology Division National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center JOHN C. FIELD AND KEITH SAKUMA NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Fisheries Ecology Division 7600 Sand Point Way NE NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center Seattle, WA 98115 110 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 National Marine Fisheries Service JOHN A. HILDEBRAND, 2Cooperative Institution for NOAA AMANDA J. DEBICH, AND Marine Ecosystems and Climate 110 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 BRUCE THAYRE Humboldt State University 1 Harpst Street, Arcata, CA 95521 SAM MCCLATCHIE, Marine Physical Laboratory ANDREW R. THOMPSON, Scripps Institution of Oceanography 3Ocean Sciences Department EDWARD D. WEBER, AND University of California, San Diego University of California, Santa Cruz WILLIAM WATSON 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92024 1156 High Street, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 Fisheries Resources Division FRANCISCO P. CHAVEZ Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute * Author groups are listed according to the order 7700 Sandholdt Rd., Moss Landing, CA 95039 NOAA of their contributions within 8901 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, CA 92037 1 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2016-2017: STILL ANYTHING BUT “NORMAL” IN THE NORTH CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 58, 2017 THE SHORT VERSION stronger-than-typical winter downwelling in 2017 and a From: Bill Peterson - NOAA Federal reduced spawning biomass of forage taxa are contribu- <[email protected]> tors to the anomalous forage community observed in the Date: Mon, Apr 17, 2017 at 10:09 AM north. Also of note, surveys indicate northern anchovy Subject: Re: CalCOFI report 2016–17 (Engraulis mordax) abundance was greater than average (for To: Sam McClatchie - NOAA Federal recent years) and nearer shore in northern regions. Finally, <[email protected]> record-low juvenile coho and Chinook salmon catches Cc: Brian Wells [email protected] … in the 2017 northern CCS salmon survey suggest that out-migrating Columbia Basin salmon likely experienced unusually high early mortality at sea, and this is further Brian, Sam, and Others: supported by similarities between the 2017 forage assem- The ocean off Oregon is anything but “normal.” Even blage and that observed during poor outmigration survival though SST had cooled down a bit, we still have rela- years in 2004, 2005, and 2015. tively warm/fresh water at depth as well as strong posi- Generally, the reproductive success of seabirds in tive anomalies in copepod species richness and southern 2016 (the most current year available) was low in the copepod biomass—all indicators that we still have a lot north but near average in central California. At Yaquina of “El Niño water” hanging around. And returns of adult Head off Oregon and Castle Rock off northern Cali- spring Chinook past Bonneville Dam (Columbia River) fornia some of the lowest reproductive success rates on are 10% of the ten-year average so far. Finally we are record were documented. In addition to reduced abun- seeing small numbers of Pseudo-nitzschia. Nothing nor- dance of prey, there was a northward shift of preferred mal! The only good news is that Euphausia pacifica have seabird prey. Seabird diets in northern areas also corrob- returned. orated observations of a northward shift in fish com- Some years ago, we did a “warm in the north, cold in munities. Nest failure was attributed to a combination the south” (or was it the opposite title?). of bottom-up and top-down forces. At Castle Rock, Bill most chicks died of starvation whereas, at Yaquina Head, most nests failed (95% of common murre, Uria ABSTRACT aagle) due to disturbance by bald eagles (Haliaeetus leuco- This report examines the ecosystem state of the Cali- cephalus) seeking alternative prey. Mean bird densities at fornia Current System (CCS) from spring 2016–spring sea for the 2017 surveys between Cape Flattery Wash- 2017. Basin-scale indices suggest conditions that would ington and Newport Oregon were the lowest observed support average to below average coast-wide production and may indicate continued poor reproductive per- across the CCS during this time period. Regional surveys formance of resident breeders in 2017. South of Cape in 2016 sampled anomalously warm surface and subsur- Mendocino, where forage availability was typical, sea- face waters across the CCS. Chlorophyll concentrations bird reproductive success was also below average for were low across the CCS in 2016 and, concomitant with most species in 2016, but did not approach failure rates that, copepod communities had an anomalously high observed in the north. Finally, in 2017, abundances of abundance of subtropical species. Early in 2017 con- seabirds observed at-sea off southern California were ditions between northern, central, and southern CCS anomalously high suggesting an improved foraging were dissimilar. Specifically, surface conditions north of environment in that area. Cape Mendocino remained anomalously warm, chlo- Marine mammal condition and foraging behavior rophyll was very low, and subtropical copepods were were also impacted by the increased abundance and anomalously abundant. Southern and central CCS sur- shifting distribution of the northern anchovy popula- veys indicated that environmental conditions and chlo- tion. Increases in the abundance of northern anchovy in rophyll were within normal ranges for the longer time the Southern California Bight coincided with improved series, supporting an argument that biophysical condi- condition of sea lion (Zalophus californianus) pups in tions/ecosystem
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