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STATE of the CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2017–18: STILL NOT QUITE NORMAL in the NORTH and GETTING INTERESTING in the SOUTH Calcofi Rep., Vol

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STATE of the CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2017–18: STILL NOT QUITE NORMAL in the NORTH and GETTING INTERESTING in the SOUTH Calcofi Rep., Vol STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2017–18: STILL NOT QUITE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND GETTING INTERESTING IN THE SOUTH CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 59, 2018 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2017–18: STILL NOT QUITE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND GETTING INTERESTING IN THE SOUTH ANDREW R. THOMPSON* SAM MCCLATCHIE ROBERT M. SURYAN1, National Marine Fisheries Service 38 Upland Rd, Huia JANE DOLLIVER2, AND Southwest Fisheries Science Center Auckland 0604, New Zealand STEPHANIE LOREDO2 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive 1NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center La Jolla, CA 92037-1509 CLARE E. PEABODY Auke Bay Laboratories/ [email protected] National Marine Fisheries Service Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute Southwest Fisheries Science Center 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Road ISAAC D. SCHROEDER1,2, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive Juneau, AK 99801 STEVEN J. BOGRAD1, ELLIOTT L. HAZEN1, La Jolla, CA 92037-1509 2Department of Fisheries and Wildlife MICHAEL G. JACOX1,3, ANDREW LEISING1, 4 Oregon State University AND BRIAN K. WELLS TIMOTHY R. BAUMGARTNER, Hatfield Marine Science Center 1Southwest Fisheries Science Center BERTHA E. LAVANIEGOS, AND Newport, OR 97365 National Marine Fisheries Service JOSE GOMEZ-VALDES 99 Pacific Street, Suite 255A Oceanology Division JEANNETTE E. ZAMON Monterey, CA 93940-7200 Centro de Investigación Científica y Northwest Fisheries Science Center 2Institute of Marine Sciences Educación Superior de Ensenada Point Adams Research Station University of California, Santa Cruz, CA Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918 520 Heceta Place and Southwest Fisheries Science Center Zona Playitas C.P. 22860 Hammond OR 97121 NOAA Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico Monterey, CA STEPHANIE R. SCHNEIDER1 AND RICHARD D. BRODEUR1, 2 3 RICHARD T. GOLIGHTLY Earth System Research Laboratory 2 ELIZABETH A. DALY , 1 NOAA 2 2 Moss Landing Marine Labs CHERYL A. MORGAN , TOBY D. AUTH 8272 Moss Landing Road Boulder, CO 80305 AND BRIAN J. BURKE3 4 Moss Landing, CA 95039 Southwest Fisheries Science Center 1NOAA-Fisheries National Marine Fisheries Service 2Department of Wildlife Northwest Fisheries Science Center Humboldt State University NOAA Hatfield Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, CA 95064 1 Harpst Street Newport, OR 97365 Arcata, CA 95521 JOHN L. LARGIER 2Cooperative Institute for Bodega Marine Laboratory Marine Resources Studies PETE WARZYBOK AND JAIME JAHNCKE University of California Davis, Oregon State University Point Blue Conservation Science Bodega Bay, CA 94923 Hatfield Marine Science Center 3820 Cypress Drive, Suite 11 Newport, OR 97365 Petaluma, CA 94954 JENNIFER L. FISHER1, KYM JACOBSON2, 3Fish Ecology Division SAMANTHA ZEMAN1 Northwest Fisheries Science Center JARROD A. SANTORA1, 2 1 National Marine Fisheries Service SARAH ANN THOMPSON , AND Cooperative Institute for 2 Marine Resources Studies National Oceanic and WILLIAM SYDEMAN Oregon State University Atmospheric Administration 1Department of Applied Mathematics Hatfield Marine Science Center 2725 Montlake Boulevard E and Statistics Newport, OR 97365 Seattle, WA 98112 Center for Stock Assessment Research 2 University of California, Santa Cruz Northwest Fisheries Science Center JOHN FIELD AND KEITH SAKUMA Hatfield Marine Science Center Santa Cruz, CA 95060 Newport, OR 97365 Southwest Fisheries Science Center 2Farallon Institute for National Marine Fisheries Service Advanced Ecosystem Research ERIC P. BJORKSTEDT1 AND NOAA Petaluma, CA 94952 ROXANNE R. ROBERTSON2 Santa Cruz, CA 95064 SHARON R. MELIN 1Southwest Fisheries Science Center EDWARD D. WEBER AND National Marine Fisheries Service National Marine Fisheries Service WILLIAM WATSON NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center Santa Cruz, CA 95064 National Marine Fisheries Service Marine Mammal Laboratory Southwest Fisheries Science Center NOAA 2CIMEC, Humboldt State University 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive 7600 Sand Point Way N. E. FRANCISCO P. CHAVEZ La Jolla, CA 92037-1509 Seattle, WA 98115 Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute JULIA COATES1, RYAN SCHOENBAUM1, Moss Landing, CA 95039 AND LAURA ROGERS-BENNETT2 1 MATI KAHRU AND RALF GOERICKE California Department of Fish and Wildlife 1933 Cliff Drive, Suite 9 Scripps Institution of Oceanography Santa Barbara, CA 93109 University of California, San Diego 2 La Jolla, CA 92093 California Department of Fish and Wildlife Bodega Marine Laboratory University of California, Davis 2099 Westshore Road Bodega Bay, CA 94923 1 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2017–18: STILL NOT QUITE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND GETTING INTERESTING IN THE SOUTH CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 59, 2018 ABSTRACT at Yaquina Head, Oregon, and Castle Rock, Califor- Following the marine heat wave of 2014–16, the nia. In both cases, forage was scarce, birds conducted California Current System (CCS) trended towards long foraging excursions which left eggs unattended more typical conditions north of Point Conception, for extended periods, and many eggs were consumed California, from mid-2017 to mid-2018, but became by avian predators. Brandt’s (Phalacrocorax peniscillatus) highly abnormal in the south by mid-2018. Two basin- and pelagic (P. pelagicus) cormorants had above aver- scale indices (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Oce- age reproductive success in 2017 at Yaquina Head, but anic Niño Index) were close to neutral, but the North Brandt’s cormorant also had total reproductive failure Pacific Gyre Oscillation was extremely low at the in 2017 at Castle Rock. At Southeast Farallon Island end of 2017 and beginning of 2018. Regional anal- murre, Brandt’s cormorant, and pelagic cormorant pro- yses demonstrated that upwelling was close to nor- ductivity was close to average in 2017, and Brandt’s mal throughout most of the CCS with the exception cormorant and murre were slightly above average in of high upwelling from northern California to Wash- 2018. Preliminary 2018 results from Yaquina Head also ington in summer and fall of 2017. Sea surface tem- indicated that murre successfully produced chicks for perature was close to normal throughout most of the the first time since 2014. At-sea bird surveys in the CCS but warmed to record levels in summer 2018 north demonstrated that sooty shearwater and common in southern California and northern Baja California. murre abundances were historically low in 2017, but In spring 2018, surface chlorophyll a was negatively increased to some of the highest values on record in anomalous throughout most of the US West Coast with 2018. By contrast, the at-sea surveys off central Califor- localized hot spots around the Columbia River, in the nia found that murre densities were anomalously high Gulf of Farallones, and Monterey Bay. Lipid-rich cope- in 2017 but fell to an average level in 2018. pod densities and sizes returned to normal levels in Improving California sea lion (Zalophus california- the northern CCS, and euphausiid abundances were nus) pup condition continued from 2016 into 2017 as above average in central California but below average live pup counts, pup weight, and rate of growth were in southern California in spring 2018. Abundances of above average. Augmented pup conditions in 2016–17 7 zooplankton taxa were slightly to well above aver- was likely driven by increased availability of anchovy, age off of northern Baja California in late 2017. Pyro- as anchovy remains were found in nearly 100% of sea somes, which are associated with warm water, were lion scat. There were record high encounters with found throughout the CCS. Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) off central The fish assemblage off Oregon and Washington was California in 2018. comprised of both northern and southern/offshore Overall, much of the CCS was in more of a nor- species. In the central region (near Monterey Bay) most mal state through mid-2018 relative to the past 5 years. fishes were close to long-term mean abundances; how- However, remnants of the 2014–16 marine heat wave ever, adult northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) abun- were still resonating in the north, and another highly dance was the highest on record. The ichthyoplankton anomalously warm water event affected the southern assemblage off southern California had a tropical signal part of the CCS in summer 2018. Thus, while the CCS similar to 2014–15 as warm-water associated mesope- was returning to typical conditions in the north, it was lagic abundances were close to record highs and cold anything but normal in the south in 2018. water mesopelagics abundances were very low. Anchovy larvae abundances in southern California were the INTRODUCTION highest since the 1960s. The California Current System (CCS; fig. 1) is noth- Indicators that can affect salmon survival were mixed ing if not dynamic with physical and biological condi- in 2018. On the one hand, several indices forecast high tions often changing greatly between years. Analyses of salmon return (moderate-high salmon yearling abun- data from the earliest days of the California Cooperative dance, high larval fish (salmon prey) abundance, normal Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) program in lipid-rich copepod abundances). On the other hand, the 1950s demonstrated that oceanographic conditions low survival was predicted by high fall PDO, high can be highly variable from year to year, leading to sub- abundances of offshore larval fishes, and above average stantial changes in the distributions and abundances of abundance of lipid-poor copepods. This unusual mix of marine organisms (Moser et al. 1987; Hsieh et al. 2005). indicators makes it difficult to forecast salmon returns Changes can either be confined to particular regions in upcoming
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