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STATE of the CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2018–19: a NOVEL ANCHOVY REGIME and a NEW MARINE HEATWAVE? Calcofi Rep., Vol STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2018–19: A NOVEL ANCHOVY REGIME AND A NEW MARINE HEATWAVE? CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 60, 2019 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2018–19: A NOVEL ANCHOVY REGIME AND A NEW MARINE HEAT WAVE? ANDREW R. THOMPSON* MATI KAHRU EDWARD D. WEBER National Marine Fisheries Service AND RALF GOERICKE AND WILLIAM WATSON Southwest Fisheries Science Center Scripps Institution of Oceanography National Marine Fisheries Service 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive University of California, San Diego Southwest Fisheries Science Center La Jolla, CA, 92037-1509 La Jolla, CA 92093 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive [email protected] La Jolla, CA 92037-1509 CLARE E. PEABODY ISAAC D. SCHROEDER1,2, National Marine Fisheries Service JESSICA M. PORQUEZ1, STEVEN J. BOGRAD1, ELLIOTT L. HAZEN1, Southwest Fisheries Science Center JANE DOLLIVER1, MICHAEL G. JACOX1,3, ANDREW LEISING1, 8901 La Jolla Shores Drive DONALD E. LYONS1,2, AND AND BRIAN K. WELLS4 La Jolla, CA 92037-1509 RACHAEL A. ORBEN1 1Southwest Fisheries Science Center 1Department of Fisheries and Wildlife National Marine Fisheries Service TIMOTHY R. BAUMGARTNER, Oregon State University 99 Pacific Street, Suite 255A BERTHA E. LAVANIEGOS, Hatfield Marine Science Center Monterey, CA 93940-7200 LUIS E. MIRANDA, Newport, OR 97365 ELIANA GOMEZ-OCAMPO, 2Institute of Marine Sciences 2National Audubon Society University of California AND JOSE GOMEZ-VALDES 104 Nash Hall Santa Cruz, CA Oceanology Division Corvallis, OR 97331 and Centro de Investigación Científica y Southwest Fisheries Science Center Educación Superior de Ensenada JEANNETTE E. ZAMON NOAA Carretera Ensenada-Tijuana No. 3918 Northwest Fisheries Science Center Monterey, CA Zona Playitas C.P. 22860 Point Adams Research Station Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico 3Earth System Research Laboratory 520 Heceta Place Hammond, OR 97121 NOAA TOBY D. AUTH1, Boulder, CO 80305 ELIZABETH A. DALY2, PETE WARZYBOK 4 Southwest Fisheries Science Center CHERYL A. MORGAN2, AND AND JAIME JAHNCKE National Marine Fisheries Service 3 BRIAN J. BURKE Point Blue Conservation Science NOAA 1Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission Santa Cruz, CA 95064 3820 Cypress Drive, Suite 11 Hatfield Marine Science Center Petaluma, CA 94954 JOHN LARGIER 2030 Marine Science Drive Newport, OR 97365 JARROD A. SANTORA1, Bodega Bay Marine Laboratory 2Cooperative Institute for SARAH ANN THOMPSON2, University of California, Davis BRIAN HOOVER2, AND Bodega Bay, CA 94923 Marine Resources Studies Oregon State University WILLIAM SYDEMAN2 JENNIFER L. FISHER1,2, Hatfield Marine Science Center 1Department of KYM C. JACOBSON2, AND Newport, OR 97365 Applied Mathematics and Statistics SAMANTHA M. ZEMAN1 3Fish Ecology Division Center for Stock Assessment Research University of California, Santa Cruz 1Cooperative Institute for Northwest Fisheries Science Center Marine Resources Studies National Marine Fisheries Service Santa Cruz, CA 95060 Oregon State University National Oceanic and 2Farallon Institute for Hatfield Marine Science Center Atmospheric Administration Advanced Ecosystem Research Newport, OR 97365 2725 Montlake Boulevard E Petaluma, CA 94952 2 Seattle, WA 98112 Northwest Fisheries Science Center SHARON R. MELIN Hatfield Marine Science Center JOHN C. FIELD AND Newport, OR 97365 National Marine Fisheries Service KEITH M. SAKUMA Alaska Fisheries Science Center ERIC P. BJORKSTEDT1 AND Southwest Fisheries Science Center Marine Mammal Laboratory ROXANNE R. ROBERTSON2 National Marine Fisheries Service NOAA NOAA 7600 Sand Point Way N. E. 1Southwest Fisheries Science Center National Marine Fisheries Service Santa Cruz, CA 95064 Seattle, WA 98115 NOAA Santa Cruz, CA 95064 2Cooperative Institute for Marine Ecosystems and Climate Humboldt State University 1 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2018–19: A NOVEL ANCHOVY REGIME AND A NEW MARINE HEATWAVE? CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 60, 2019 ABSTRACT of young-of-the-year flatfish, a prey item known to be The California Current Ecosystem (CCE) has been conducive to chick survival. Despite the prevalence of in a primarily warm state since 2014, and this pattern northern anchovy in central California, common murre largely continued into 2019. The CCE experienced a and Brand’s cormorant production was low in Southeast mild El Niño from late 2018 into 2019, and basin-scale Farallon Island as these birds were unable to feed opti- indicators reflected this condition (elevatedOceanic mally on northern anchovy, and there was a scarcity of Niño Index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation; table 1). more appropriate prey such as young-of-the-year flat- Despite the El Niño, spring upwelling was above average fishes or rockfishes. between southern California and Washington but below California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), by contrast, average in Baja California. Sea surface temperature (SST) benefitted greatly from the large northern anchovy for- was mostly near the long-term average between Wash- age base. In 2018, live pup count, weight, and growth ington and southern California, while surface chloro- rate were anomalously high, and northern anchovy phyll a was above average in Oregon/Washington and remains occurred in >85% of scat samples. Humpback slightly below average in most of California in spring/ whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) sightings were also very early summer 2019. SST changed dramatically by fall high in 2019, likely because humpback whales congre- 2019, however, as a marine heat wave (MHW) that gated near shore to feed on northern anchovy. formed in May 2019 in the Gulf of Alaska impinged upon the West Coast of the United States. The expan- INTRODUCTION sion of the 2019 MHW followed a similar pattern to The past 6 years were extraordinarily warm in the the 2014–15 MHW. California Current Ecosystem (CCE) (Thompson et al. Off Oregon, the zooplankton assemblage was in a 2018). The warming began in the Gulf of Alaska in late mixed state as southern copepods were close to aver- 2013 when slack winds resulted in strong stratification and age while northern copepod abundances were positively anomalous heating of surface waters. This “blob” of warm anomalous in 2019. Off northern California, Euphausia water expanded south throughout 2014 and impinged on pacifica body size was smaller than average. Euphausid the southern parts of the California Current by late 2014 abundances were well below average in both central and (Bond et al. 2015). The warm pattern continued into southern California in 2019. 2015 when a strong El Niño brought warm water to both In the north, winter 2019 larval fish abundances were shallow and deep areas throughout the CCE (Jacox et al. high and dominated by offshore taxa that are associated 2016). Conditions remained warm throughout most of with warm conditions; spring larval and post-larval bio- 2016, and 2014–16 turned out to be the warmest 3-year mass were close to average; and spring surface trawls period in the CCE since records began in 1920 (Jacox et observed record-high market squid (Doryteuthis opales- al. 2018a). This 3-year stretch was termed a “marine heat cens) abundances. The single most important finding in wave” (MHW) (Frölicher et al. 2018). Conditions in 2017 2019 was that northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) adults reverted to more of an average state, but many biological and larvae were at record-high abundances in central and remnants of the MHW lingered throughout much of the southern California. In central California, market squid CCE (Wells et al. 2017; Thompson et al. 2018). In 2018, and Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) were also abundant. oceanographic conditions north of Point Conception In southern California warm-water mesopelagic fishes remained close to average, but anomalously warm water have been very abundant since 2014, and this trend con- returned to the southern CCE in summer, and the sin- tinued into 2019. gle warmest daily water temperature since measurements Indicators for future salmon returns were mixed in began in 1931 occurred at the Scripps Pier on August 1, 2019. The abundance of northern copepods, which 2018 (Thompson et al. 2018). From a broad perspective, correlate positively with returns, was high. However, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDO) was almost abundances of yearling Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus exclusively positive and the North Pacific Gyre Oscilla- tshawytscha) and coho salmon (O. kisutch), which also tion negative since 2014; both measurements are consis- correlate positively with returns, were slightly below tent with warm conditions in the eastern north Pacific average. Winter ichthyoplankton was comprised mostly (Thompson et al. 2018). of southern or offshore taxa, which bodes poorly for The post-2013 record-high water temperatures future salmon returns. induced some major ecological surprises. For example, a Seabird (common murre [Uria aalge]; Brandt’s cor- near-paradigm based on data from roughly 1950 to 2002 morant [Phalacrocorax penicillatus]; and pelagic cormorant was that Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax; Sardine) thrive [Phalacrocorax pelagicus]) productivity off Oregon was the under warm and northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) highest in years in both 2018 and 2019. In 2018, com- under cool ocean conditions (Chavez et al. 2003). How- mon murre chicks in Oregon consumed large amounts ever, northern anchovy recruitment was very high and 2 STATE OF THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT 2018–19: A NOVEL ANCHOVY REGIME AND A NEW MARINE HEATWAVE? CalCOFI Rep., Vol. 60, 2019 TABLE 1 Overview of conditions throughout the California Current in 2019. For basin indices and physical
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