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The Annual Update from the Bdo Travel Team THE TRAVEL DIARIES THE ANNUAL UPDATE FROM THE BDO TRAVEL TEAM THIRD EDITION | 2020 THIRD EDITION | 2020 THE TRAVEL DIARIES CLICK BELOW TO GO TO SECTION Welcome to the 2020 edition of The Travel Diaries, BDO’s annual review of the key developments in the UK travel market. This year we look back on what has been a very challenging year for the sector and discuss the changes that will follow as the sector looks to bounce back in 2021. This year our external contributors include: X Christopher Photi provides a superb assessment of the current regulatory regime and the cash crisis facing the sector; X Rhys Griffiths covers the legal challenges presented by the coronavirus pandemic; and X Liam McGuinness follows up on his 2019 domestic travel article and discusses the key changes facing the sector. A big thank you to all of them. Please get it touch with me if you have any questions. HARRY STOAKES Partner | M&A +44 (0)7785 576 325 [email protected] THIRD EDITION | 2020 THE TRAVEL DIARIES WHAT WE CAN EXPECT FROM THE CRISIS What a terrible year for the outbound travel sector. I’m sure you will agree that 2020 has been the worst year for travel in living memory and our thoughts are with all the teams across the country dealing with the crisis. I recently read last year’s edition of Travel Diaries and the predictions for 2020 were clearly way off the mark which is why the COVID crisis has been so hard to deal with as none of us saw it coming. Last year, we looked forward to a period where Brexit uncertainty was not rife and an uptick in deal activity. I think we would all take a bit of Brexit uncertainty now instead of the damage caused by COVID. Unfortunately policy makers have not helped. It seemed that destination Before we cover what the future may hold, it is worth remembering what countries were being added to the quarantine list on a daily basis as the a success story the travel sector has been in recent years, accounting for summer progressed. The daily updates caught everyone unaware, creating 10% of global GDP and growing faster than global GDP. This success is an unpredictable market for the consumer. The open holiday season of down to the unrivalled emotions and memories travel gives us and that’s late June / early July was too short-lived and unfortunately with Lockdown why it will return strongly. 2 the outlook for travel operators appears extremely tough and expect So what can we expect from the crisis? further corporate failures as businesses run out of cash. Source: Source: EV / 2019 EBITDA (EV/FY19EBITDA) Group The Beach On reboundstrongly. will thatit confidence investor reflecting EBITDA, Covid) its 2019(pre valued at15x is OTB view. this hold that investors priceindicates share (OTB) The Beach's On the A lookat models. on retail further pressure expect without leavinghomeso delivered can stillbe this trusted adviserisrequired, a Where ways. old our to back to gostraight unlikely we’re and will stick These newshoppinghabits different. isno travel online and everything ordering to allgotused have We CHANNEL ACCELERATE SHIFT TO 1 1 2 2 3 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 . 0 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 x x x x x x x Capital IQ 01 Jan 19 15 Jan 19 29 Jan 19 12 Feb 19 26 Feb 19 12 Mar 19 26 Mar 19 09 Apr 19 23 Apr 19 07 May 19 21 May 19 04 Jun 19 18 Jun 19 02 Jul 19 16 Jul 19 30 Jul 19 13 Aug 19 27 Aug 19 10 Sep 19 24 Sep 19 08 Oct 19 22 Oct 19 E V / 05 Nov 19 F Y 19 Nov 19 1 9 E 03 Dec 19 B I T 17 Dec 19 D A 31 Dec 19 14 Jan 20 28 Jan 20 11 Feb 20 25 Feb 20 10 Mar 20 24 Mar 20 07 Apr 20 21 Apr 20 05 May 20 19 May 20 02 Jun 20 16 Jun 20 30 Jun 20 14 Jul 20 28 Jul 20 THIRD EDITION | 2020 11 Aug 20 THE 25 Aug 20 TRAVEL DIARIES 08 Sep 20 22 Sep 20 06 Oct 20 costs, and a retail-heavy agent closing shops to be analogous to what’s taking place across the UK. the taking placeacross what’s to to beanalogous closing shops agent costs, andaretail-heavy fixed with low online player valuation upheldatan of astrong examples two these expect We closing. stores retail of its with half changes announcedlarge-scale have Centre suchasFlight brands time, retail-heavy the same At £ millions 1000 1200 1 1 2 2 3 3 600 800 5 0 5 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 on Companies on Companies House Source: N e i l s o balance sheet cash requires funding. cash requires balance sheet highlights in contribution, this his excellent additional Chis Photi butas future the examples in such expect more We trust customers as theyoperate from accounts. than thecash received cash heldmore Trailfinders The Beachand On Some businessessuchas and this will prompt a cashcrisis in the theyear ahead. industry over flowingWithout customercash in, impossibleto it’s overheads pay always used customercash as a permanent element ofthe working capitalcycle. businesses have Travel cash. income exceeded deferred ondeparture, recognised is revenue where cases, that inmany to learn beasurprise won’t andit operators the At start ofthecrisis, we looked at the balance sheets of UK outboundtravel some our overseas. ability totravel to adviseagainstandrestrict policy government triggered that has crisis health itisa event, disaster or natural ageo-political from fallout or asupply debt consumer of unsustainable years following demand collapse in that itisnota crisis isuniquein This THIS A CASHCRISIS IS latest Statutory Accounts n I g l u R i v i e r a G J o r e u a r t n R e y a s i l C a s h S c o t t D u n D n e f e r r O e B d n e I a T n c h c h o e m e T r a i l fi n d e r s A u d l e y T r a v e l o p i a 1 T , 1 U 2 I 1 8 U 8 K 5 THIRD EDITION | 2020 THE TRAVEL DIARIES MORE TRAVEL BUSINESSES WILL FAIL THE MARKET WILL COME BACK ATOL Licensed Passengers (Millions) Sadly the failure of travel businesses is inevitable given it will be a long time Confidence will return because it always does following a recession and RANK COMPANY 2019 2020 YOY GROWTH (19-20) until they can release profit from departures. Travel businesses have been those travel businesses still trading and with the firepower to acquire running on fumes, surviving on deposits and cash received from advance customers online will gain market share. On The Beach raised £140m in 1 TUI UK 5.6 3.7 (33%) bookings and delaying cash refunds to protect their liquidity. Merchant debt and equity in May 2020 to see it through Covid, fund acquisitions and 2 Jet2Holidays 3.9 3.5 (11%) acquirers and the travel regulations will put businesses in a position to help fund the consumer rebound when it happens. Love Holidays has Expedia 0.9 0.3 (64%) where liquidity will get squeezed to the point of failure where new also raised further funds from its backers. 3 funds can’t be sourced. TUI research from the customer base in September 2020 suggested that 4 On The Beach 1.6 1.2 (26%) In other segments of the leisure sector, we have seen a wave of 81% of those asked feel confident about travelling overseas by September 5 British Airways 1 0.6 (41%) restructurings. A glance at the casual dining market tells a story of a frenzy 2021. Given the public’s acceptance of lockdown measures, this appears to Love Holidays 1.4 1.1 (21%) of accelerated sale processes for household names such as Pizza Express, be a very encouraging number. 6 Côte, Zizzi, Ask Italian, Café Rouge, Bella Italia, Las Iguanas, GBK and Byron. I imagine more affluent consumers, particularly the baby boomers, will be 7 easyJet Airline 0.8 0.3 (57%) We haven’t seen this in travel (yet) as businesses went into the crisis with so bored from lockdown that they will start ticking off their “must visit” 8 BravoNext 0.6 0.4 (32%) some cash and in the main have lower levels of operational leverage (rents lists where it is safe to do so. and other fixed property costs). But the recovery will require funding and 9 easyJet Holidays n.a. 0.5 n.a. The ATOL licenced passenger volumes provides some interesting insights. that’s when we will see new winners and losers emerge. TUI are down 1.8m passengers, or a third, from last year. On The Beach are 10 Southall Travel 0.4 0.3 (20%) In travel, thank heavens, we haven’t seen mass corporate failures. STA, down 25% and Love Holidays down 21%. All in a market where Thomas Source: Civil Aviation Authority ATOL report which had around a billion dollars of total transaction value (sales) Cook’s two and a half million passengers are up for grabs. worldwide, sadly went into administration in August 2020 leaving a big gap While outbound operators are experiencing severe difficulty, domestic UK in the market for youth travel which will no doubt get filled by more operators will have experienced strong trading as consumers substitute tech-led players offering culturally-rich tours and activity trips.
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