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Evaluating Observed and Projected Future Climate Changes for the Arctic Using the Köppen-Trewartha Climate Classification

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Evaluating Observed and Projected Future Climate Changes for the Arctic Using the Köppen-Trewartha Climate Classification University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Papers in Natural Resources Natural Resources, School of 2-2011 Evaluating observed and projected future climate changes for the Arctic using the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification Song Feng University of Nebraska - Lincoln, [email protected] Chang-Hoi Ho Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Qi Hu University of Nebraska, Lincoln, [email protected] Robert Oglesby University of Nebraska - Lincoln, [email protected] Su-Jong Jeong Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/natrespapers Part of the Natural Resources and Conservation Commons Feng, Song; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Hu, Qi; Oglesby, Robert; Jeong, Su-Jong; and Kim, Baek-Min, "Evaluating observed and projected future climate changes for the Arctic using the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification" (2011). Papers in Natural Resources. 291. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/natrespapers/291 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Natural Resources, School of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Papers in Natural Resources by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. Authors Song Feng, Chang-Hoi Ho, Qi Hu, Robert Oglesby, Su-Jong Jeong, and Baek-Min Kim This article is available at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/ natrespapers/291 Published in Climate Dynamics (2011); doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1020-6 Copyright © 2011 Springer-Verlag. Used by permission. Submitted October 25, 2010; accepted January 31, 2011; published online February 11, 2011. Evaluating observed and projected future climate changes for the Arctic using the Köppen-Trewartha climate classification Song Feng,1 Chang-Hoi Ho,2 Qi Hu,1, 3 Robert J. Oglesby,1, 3 Su-Jong Jeong,2 and Baek-Min Kim 4 1. School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 702 Hardin Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0987, USA 2. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea 3. Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA 4. Korean Polar Research Institute, Incheon, Korea Corresponding author — Song Feng, email: [email protected] Abstract eal coverage under the B1, A1b and A2 scenarios, respec- The ecosystems in the Arctic region are known to be very tively. The temperate climate types (Dc and Do) advance sensitive to climate changes. The accelerated warming for and take over the area previously covered by Ec. The area the past several decades has profoundly influenced the covered by Dc climate expands by 4.61 × 106 km2 (84.6%) lives of the native populations and ecosystems in the Arc- in B1, 6.88 × 106 km2 (126.4%) in A1b, and 8.16 × 106 km2 tic. Given that the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) climate classifi- (149.6%) in A2 scenarios. The projected redistributions of cation is based on reliable variations of land-surface types K-T climate types also differ regionally. In northern Europe (especially vegetation), this study used the K-T scheme to and Alaska, the warming may cause more rapid expansion evaluate climate changes and their impact on vegetation of temperate climate types. Overall, the climate types in 25, for the Arctic (north of 50°N) by analyzing observations 39.1, and 45% of the entire Arctic region are projected to as well as model simulations for the period 1900–2099. change by the end of this century under the B1, A1b, and The models include 16 fully coupled global climate mod- A2 scenarios, respectively. Because the K-T climate classi- els from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fication was constructed on the basis of vegetation types, Fourth Assessment. By the end of this century, the annual- and each K-T climate type is closely associated with certain mean surface temperature averaged over Arctic land re- prevalent vegetation species, the projected large shift in cli- gions is projected to increase by 3.1, 4.6 and 5.3°C under mate types suggests extensive broad-scale redistribution of the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) B1, A1b, prevalent ecoregions in the Arctic. and A2 emission scenarios, respectively. Increasing tem- Keywords: Arctic, Köppen-Trewartha climate classifica- perature favors a northward expansion of temperate cli- tion, Fully coupled global climate models, Climate projec- mate (i.e., Dc and Do in the K-T classification) and boreal tion, Vegetation oceanic climate (i.e., Eo) types into areas previously cov- ered by boreal continental climate (i.e., Ec) and tundra; and tundra into areas occupied by permanent ice. The tundra region is projected to shrink by −1.86 × 106 km2 (−33.0%) 1. Introduction in B1, −2.4 × 106 km2 (−42.6%) in A1b, and −2.5 × 106 km2 (−44.2%) in A2 scenarios by the end of this century. The Ec The Arctic region is extremely vulnerable to climate climate type retreats at least 5° poleward of its present lo- change and its impacts. Observations show that surface cation, resulting in −18.9, −30.2, and −37.1% declines in ar- air temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at about 1 2 S. FENG ET AL. IN CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2011) twice the global rate over the past few decades (ACIA One simple, but frequently used method to assess the 2004). This Arctic warming also is expressed through impact of climate change on ecosystems is the Köppen widespread melting of glaciers and sea ice and rising climate classification (Köppen 1936), and its subsequent permafrost temperatures (e.g., Serreze et al. 2007; Zhang modification to the Köppen-Trewartha (K-T) classifica- et al. 2005; Hinzman et al. 2005). Consistent with Arc- tion (Trewartha and Horn 1980). Though environmental tic warming, the amount of rainfall in high latitudes has and historical factors can exert important influences on increased considerably over the past 50 years (Min et natural vegetation at local scales, climate is nonetheless al. 2008), supporting earlier reported increases in Arc- the fundamental factor regulating the broad-scale distri- tic river discharge (ACIA 2005; Peterson et al. 2002; bution of natural vegetation physiognomy and species Hinzman et al. 2005). Additionally, the Arctic warm- composition. This is the main reason that Köppen used ing leads to decreasing sea ice and snow cover as well the natural vegetation of a region as an expression of its as longer snow-free seasons (Chapin et al. 2005; Stone et climate (Köppen 1936). The Köppen and K-T classifica- al. 2002). The shrinking sea ice and snow cover and the tions combine temperature and precipitation regimes lengthening of the snow-free season in turn reduce sur- and their seasonality into a single metric and thereby face albedo and contribute substantially via a positive classify global climate into several major types. Based feedback to high-latitude warming trends (Chapin et al. on seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation, 2005; McGuire et al. 2006; Jeong et al. 2010a). several sub-climate types in each major climate type A mounting body of evidence indicates that this re- can further be classified. The Köppen classification sys- cent, amplified warming in the Arctic is fueled by hu- tem has been widely used to describe the potential dis- man-induced ‘global warming’ (e.g., Intergovernmen- tribution of natural vegetation based on climatic thresh- tal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2007; Gillett et al. olds thought to drive critical physiological processes 2008). Gillett et al. (2008) examined the mechanisms (Bailey 2009). Indeed, each climate type (major or sub- underlying the observed polar climate changes us- climate) is associated with a certain vegetation assem- ing simulations made by multiple climate models in- blage, or ecoregion, under present climate conditions cluded in the IPCC Fourth Assessment (AR4). Their (Bailey 2009; Baker et al. 2010; see also Table 1). There- work demonstrated convincingly that humans have in- fore, by definition the climate types are closely linked deed contributed to recent warming in the Arctic re- to the qualitative features of regional vegetation. Also gion. Additionally, increasing atmospheric concen- of importance, a key advantage of this type of classifica- trations of greenhouse gases are projected to further tion scheme is that it is easy to use with a variety of data contribute to Arctic warming of about 4–7°C over next sets and model outputs. 100 years (ACIA 2004). These results emphasize the ur- A number of previous studies used the Köppen and gent need to understand observed and projected fu- related climate classifications to investigate the poten- ture climate changes and their impact on ecosystems tial impact of past, present, and projected future cli- in the Arctic. mate changes (Fraedrich et al. 2001; Wang and Overland Warming in the Arctic can, and apparently has al- 2004; de Castro et al. 2007; Baker et al. 2010; Gersten- ready caused large shifts in vegetation. Plants in garbe and Werner 2009). Fraedrich et al. (2001) ana- Greenland are flowering at an earlier date; indeed the lyzed changes in climate types over global land regions onset of the growing season occurs earlier (Post et during 1901–1995. They reported that the area covered al. 2009; Matthes et al. 2009). The areal extent of tall by tundra (which primarily appears in the Arctic) sig- shrubs in Alaska’s North Slope tundra region has in- nificantly declined during the 20th century. Wang and creased 1.2% per decade since 1950 (Sturm et al. 2001), Overland (2004) used an updated dataset and reported also supported by indigenous observations in the a rapid decrease in circum-Arctic tundra coverage since same region (Thorpe et al. 2002). Throughout Alaska, 1990. De Castro et al. (2007) analyzed simulations made a majority of the studied sites show a treeline advance by multiple regional climate models and reported that (Lloyd 2005).
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