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0111 WORK Company Update E January 11, 2013 THAILAND EQUITY Investment Research Daily Company Update Thailand Research Team +66 2 862 9999 ext. 2030 Workpoint Entertainment Solid Outlook • Revenue and net profit growth of 15% and 45% respectively for 2012. • 2013 looks set to be another good year thanks to a rise in broadcasting air BUY · time, advertising rates and more new TV programs. Fair Value THB 52.00 • BUY, with a new FV of THB52 based on a blended FY13-FY14 PE of 20x , providing an upside of 15% from the current market price Price THB 45. 00 2012 round-up. Workpoint Entertainment (WORK) owns the rights to broadcast two MEDIA Workpoint Entertainment (WORK), shows, Thailand’s Got Talent 2 and The Voice Thailand (Season 1), through a free-to-air Thailand’ s leading content provider, is TV channel (CH.3). Apart from several entertainment variety shows produced for free TV, engaged in other media-related businesses, WORK is deemed as a successful player in the satellite TV industry, as it enjoys higher including hosting an analogue satellite channel. program ratings and successfully charges higher advertising rates. We expect WORK’s top-line growth to slow in 4Q12, as revenues from the two popular shows were largely Stock Statistics booked in the third quarter. Despite a high base in 2011, we are projecting 15% and 45% Bloomberg Ticker WORK TB Share Capital (m) 257.1 in revenue and net profit growth for 2012 respectively. Market Cap (USDm) 373.2 52 week H │L Price (THB) 47.75 12.90 What to expect this year: 3mth Avg Vol (‘000) 856.7 YTD Returns -1.1 Beta (x) 0.86 • More air time. WORK received additional air times to broadcast three more TV programs: two on Modern Nine TV and one on Channel 3. Total air time will Major Shareholders (%) Mr. Panya Nirunkul 36.14 increase by 21% (or 220 minutes a week) to approximately 1,400 mins per Mr. Prapas Chonsaranon 36.06 week. This results in an increase in advertising time to an average of 120 Mr. Santi Singhawancha 2.85 minutes per day. Share Performance (%) • Raising ad rates for its satellite channel. The average ad rate for WORK’s Month Absolute Relative satellite channel is currently between THB6,000 and THB8,000. The company 1m 23.3 15.2 plans to bump this up to around THB10,000 per minute this year. 3m 36.4 27.5 6m 66.4 39.4 • More new productions on satellite. WORK is currently running a new four- 12m 251.5 151.2 hour production and a four-hour re-run from free TV, leaving a remainder of two rounds or 16 hours of rebroadcasting. This year will see six hours a day of new Share Price Performance productions and six hours of re-runs a day from free TV channels. All programs 50.00 45.00 will be re-broadcasted only once a day. 40.00 35.00 30.00 Upgrade in e arnings and valuation. Given the brighter outlook and increasing success 25.00 of its satellite channel , we are upgrading our top- and bottom-line forecast for WORK in 20.00 2013 by 14% and 30% respectively. Applying a 20x PE, which is slightly higher than 15.00 10.00 historical forward multiple s and the industry average, we have a BUY call on this counter 5.00 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 with a new FV of THB52.0 (+15% upside from current price). The higher multiple is justified by the high earnings leverage should satellite TV-related ad revenue continue to improve. FYE Dec (THB m) FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 f FY1 3f FY1 4f Revenue 1,339.22 1,865.35 2,136.04 2,644.07 3,059.04 Net Profit 186.87 327.34 474.99 605.06 706.11 % chg y-o-y 155.52 75.17 45.11 27.38 16.70 Consensus 458.3 560.8 644.5 EPS (THB) 0.72 1.27 1.84 2.34 2.73 DPS (THB) 0.57 1.00 1.30 1.65 1.93 Dividend yield (%) 1.25 2.20 2.85 3.63 4.24 ROE (%) 18.19 29.20 36.76 40.28 41.66 ROA (%) 15.30 23.39 29.21 32.30 33.32 PER (x) 62.91 35.91 24.75 19.43 16.65 BV/share (THB) 5.35 4.68 5.47 6.16 6.96 P/BV (x) 8.50 9.73 8.32 7.39 6.53 EV/ EBITDA (x) 6.89 5.75 16.26 13.59 11.65 OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 OSK Research Figure 1: Advertising time (in hours per year) hours / year 1,600 1,459 1,400 1,326 1,206 1,152 1,200 1,077 997 1,000 951 828 869 800 712 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Source: Company data, OSK Estimates Figure 2: Advertising expenditure 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 11M2012 Overall Advertising expenditure TV advertising expenditure Source: Company data, OSK Estimates OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 OSK Research EARNINGS FORECAST FYE Dec (THB m) FY10 FY11 FY12 f FY13 f FY14 f Turnover 1,339.22 1,865.35 2,136.04 2,644.07 3,059.04 EBITDA 331.30 542.72 711.07 848.58 982.28 PBT 265.76 482.42 630.97 762.59 889.83 Net Profit 186.87 327.34 474.99 605.06 706.11 EPS (THB ) 0.72 1.27 1.84 2.34 2.73 DPS (THB) 0.57 1.00 1.30 1.65 1.93 Margin EBITDA (%) 24.74 29.09 33.29 32.09 32.11 PBT (%) 19.84 25.86 29.54 28.84 29.09 Net Profit (%) 13.95 17.55 22.24 22.88 23.08 ROE (%) 18.19 29.20 36.76 40.28 41.66 ROA (%) 15 .30 23.39 29.21 32.30 33.32 Balance Sheet Fixed Assets 518.86 510.26 511.78 506.90 495.62 Current Assets 711.75 884.97 1,136.81 1,351.95 1,608.43 Total Assets 1,304.91 1,494.34 1,757.93 1,988.51 2,250.31 Current Liabilities 191.27 244.96 259.59 304.50 349.91 Net Current Assets 514.79 593.98 828.70 996.29 1,204.53 LT Liabilities 5.69 46.03 48.51 51.16 53.99 Shareholders Funds 1,070.98 1,171.02 1,413.16 1,591.18 1,798.98 Net Gearing (%) Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Net Cash Cash Flow PBT 265.76 482.42 630.97 762.59 889.83 Other Operating Cash -48.12 -178.96 -207.69 -231.57 -211.78 Chg in Working Capital 13.92 41.15 64.44 78.21 59.81 Operating Cashflow 231.56 344.61 487.72 609.23 737.87 CAPEX -32.06 -54.58 -80.00 -80.00 -80.00 FCF 199.61 290.74 408.95 530.11 658.80 OSK Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 OSK Research OSK Research Guide to Investment Ratings Buy : Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months (scenario analysis in the text may indicate different target prices) Trading Buy : Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral : Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit : Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell : Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated (NR): Stock is not within regular research coverage All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing. However, information and opinions expressed will be subject to change at short notice, and no part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. We do not accept any liability directly or indirectly that may arise from investment decision-making based on this report. The company, its directors, officers, employees and/or connected persons may periodically hold an interest and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned. Distribution in Singapore This research report is produced by OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL and is distributed in Singapore only to “Institutional Investors”, “Expert Investors” or “Accredited Investors” as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, CAP. 289 of Singapore. If you are not an “Institutional Investor”, “Expert Investor” or “Accredited Investor”, this research report is not intended for you and you should disregard this research report in its entirety. In respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this research report, you are to contact our Singapore Office, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd (“DMG”). All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be used or re-produced without expressed permission from OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL. Published by OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL, 10 th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower, 98, North Sathorn Road, Bangrak, Bangkok. OSK Securities (Thailand) PCL. (A subsidiary of OSK Investment Bank Berhad) Kuala Lumpur Hong Kong Singapore Malaysia Research Office OSK Securities DMG & Partners OSK Research Sdn.
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