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Fiscal Imbalance: Problems, Solutions, and Implications a Summary of the 2005 Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum by Loretta J

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Fiscal Imbalance: Problems, Solutions, and Implications a Summary of the 2005 Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum by Loretta J Fiscal Imbalance: Problems, Solutions, and Implications A Summary of the 2005 Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum BY LOREttA J. MESTER iscal Imbalance: Problems, Solutions, and number of retirees is increasing. Implications” was the topic of our fifth Greenspan pointed out that cur- rently 3.25 workers contribute to the “F annual Philadelphia Fed Policy Forum Social Security system for each benefi- held on December 2, 2005. This event, ciary. By 2030, the number of benefi- ciaries will have doubled and the ratio sponsored by the Bank’s Research Department, brought of covered workers to beneficiaries will together economic scholars, policymakers, and market have fallen to 2. At the same time, spending per Medicare beneficiary economists to discuss and debate the implications of is expected to increase as the cost of fiscal imbalance for the U.S. economy. Our hope is that medical care rises. In fiscal year 2005, federal outlays for Social Security, the 2005 Policy Forum will serve as a catalyst for both Medicare, and Medicaid totaled about greater understanding and further research on the fiscal 8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Office of Management and challenges facing the U.S. economy. Budget projections suggest this share will rise to 9.5 percent by 2015 and to 13 percent by 2030. While productiv- ity growth can help alleviate some of the strain on the budget, it won’t be At the current pace of spending that budget imbalance is one of the the whole answer. Growing budget and revenue generation, the U.S. faces important challenges facing the U.S. deficits could drain resources from a worsening budget position over the economy over the medium and longer private investment and thereby hurt coming years. While the problems run, there is considerably less agree- the growth of living standards. with the Social Security program have ment on what should be done to meet As Greenspan noted, some of the garnered most of the headlines, financ- those challenges. parameters needed to scale the prob- ing health care and the Medicare Alan Greenspan, then Chairman lem are known. For example the size system poses the greatest challenge. of the Federal Reserve Board, opened of the adult population in 2030 is fairly The size of the problem, longer-term the conference. In his view, the defi- easy to estimate since most of that implications of fiscal imbalance, and cit-reducing actions necessary to stem population has already been born. But potential solutions were the focus of the worsening budget position will be other parameters, such as the amount the 2005 Philadelphia Fed Policy Fo- difficult to implement unless proce- of future medical spending, are very rum. While there is general agreement dural restraints on the budget-making difficult to estimate. Medical techno- process, like limits on discretionary logical innovations can improve the spending and the PAYGO require- quality of health care and lower the Loretta J. Mester ments, are restored. He said that cost of existing treatments, but they is a senior vice reinstating the structure in the Budget can also expand treatment possibilities president and and life expectancy, and both of these director of Enforcement Act of 1990 and coupling research at the it with provisions for dealing with can mean higher spending. Federal Reserve unexpected budget outcomes would be Greenspan said that he fears the Bank of beneficial. But it would not be enough U.S. may have already committed Philadelphia. This more resources to the baby boom- article is available to solve the problem. The fundamen- free of charge at tal issue is making choices among ers than it can deliver. If so, making www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/br/index.html. budget priorities, especially since the changes to those promises should come www.philadelphiafed.org Business Review Q3 2006 31 sooner rather than later – a theme theory of public goods or externalities. what people tend to think about is echoed by other speakers at the Policy Shiller listed several of the what other people think about (a kind Forum – so people can plan their work, concepts from behavioral economics of herding). There is also a wishful savings, and retirement spending ac- that are important to understanding thinking bias: People believe what they cordingly. Although he believes clos- how we think about the future. One want to believe. This makes people ing the budget gap depends on changes of these is hyperbolic discounting, tend to underestimate risk. Indeed, to both the spending and tax sides, which refers to the tendency to behave psychologists have hypothesized that he thinks that most of the change inconsistently over time: We tend to people have certain pathways in their should come on the outlay side, and be impulsive and put more value on brains to deal with risk, but they are he suspects that we may need to make today than tomorrow. Psychologists not suited to the modern world. For significant structural changes to U.S. are documenting that people think example, being in a crowded room retirement and health programs. Solv- about the present in concrete terms when a wild animal escapes would ing the Medicare problem is more dif- but the future in more abstract terms, cause your scared reflexes to engage, ficult than Social Security because of and this may underlie why people place but being told you are not saving the difficulties in estimating the trend more importance on the present than enough for the future doesn’t. The last in medical expenditures. Greenspan the future. Another concept is that of behavioral concept Shiller discussed concluded by saying that doing noth- framing. People may behave inconsis- was the instinct for people to believe ing to solve the budget imbalance tently, depending on how a situation those in authority: People have high could have severe consequences for the is described to them; they react to expectations for government authori- U.S. economy, but addressing the issue the names things are given and the ties and tend to believe them. in a timely and sound fashion could context. Psychological research has In Shiller’s view, we need to in- produce lasting benefits. also shown that some of the biggest corporate these concepts of behavioral errors people make are errors of atten- economics into our thinking about SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDI- tion: Something else has caught their ways to solve the government budget CARE: SCALING THE PROBLEM attention, and they don’t get around problems, and he believes this is begin- AND PROPOSED SOLUTIONS* to thinking about saving. In addition, ning to happen. This approach need This session took up the problem of how to scale the fiscal deficit prob- lem and what can be done to solve it. Our first speaker, Robert Shiller, of Yale University, spoke on the underly- ing life-cycle issues involved in the Social Security and Medicare deficits. He expanded on many of Chairman Greenspan’s themes but from the perspective of behavioral economics. One of the fundamentals underlying the government budget deficit and the low personal saving rate is the problem people and society have in planning for the distant future. In Shiller’s view, these behavioral considerations justify government interventions in a broader set of circumstances than those sug- gested by the traditional economic * Many of the presentations reviewed here are available on our website at www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/conf/ forum2005/ program.html. Robert Shiller, Yale University (left), and Peter Diamond, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 32 Q3 2006 Business Review www.philadelphiafed.org not imply a “big government” solution. choices regarding health care.) Shiller be cut by about 25 percent to match People are in a better position to know thinks this should give government revenues. Using a 75-year horizon, the what they need and should be al- and private initiatives motivation to unfunded portion of promised benefits lowed to express it, but they will make help people deal with these compli- is 1.8 percent of taxable payrolls as of mistakes that have to be dealt with. cated issues, and he pointed to a few January 1, 2005. Comparing this to He concluded his talk by discussing examples of private initiatives. the current Social Security payroll tax some of the potential solutions to the The “save more tomorrow” plan of of 12.4 percent shows that there is a Social Security and health-care prob- Richard Thaler and Shlomo Benartzi problem, but it is not an enormous one lems. Shiller has been critical of the offers employees the choice to funnel when compared with the Medicare Bush Social Security plan, although future pay raises automatically into problem. he acknowledges it had some creative a savings account. People have a Certain groups rely more on Social elements. In particular, Shiller thinks tendency not to save for today, since Security for a larger part of their retire- the life-cycle part of the plan was ment income than other groups. For unique in that it would automatically example, a fifth of the elderly get all put people who chose the account plan While poverty among of their income from Social Security, into a life-cycle portfolio at the age of the elderly has fallen, and two-thirds get 50 percent or more. 47. Having this as a default option is Particularly vulnerable groups include in accord with some of the recent prin- it is still at fairly high long-career low earners, widows and ciples of behavioral economics – i.e., levels, especially widowers with low benefits, disabled you cannot expect people to make among divorced workers, and surviving children. active choices. On the other hand, he While poverty among the elderly has also criticizes the Bush plan, likening women.
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