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Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations Preprint K Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations Preprint K. Orwig National Renewable Energy Laboratory C. Clark and J. Cline U.S. Department of Energy S. Benjamin, J. Wilczak, and M. Marquis National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration C. Finley WindLogics A. Stern National Weather Service J. Freedman AWS Truepower To be presented at the 11th Annual International Workshop on Large- Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as Well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants Conference Lisbon, Portugal November 13–15, 2012 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Conference Paper NREL/CP-5500-56258 September 2012 Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC (Alliance), a contractor of the US Government under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Accordingly, the US Government and Alliance retain a nonexclusive royalty-free license to publish or reproduce the published form of this contribution, or allow others to do so, for US Government purposes. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government. Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States government or any agency thereof. Available electronically at http://www.osti.gov/bridge Available for a processing fee to U.S. Department of Energy and its contractors, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information P.O. Box 62 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-0062 phone: 865.576.8401 fax: 865.576.5728 email: mailto:[email protected] Available for sale to the public, in paper, from: U.S. Department of Commerce National Technical Information Service 5285 Port Royal Road Springfield, VA 22161 phone: 800.553.6847 fax: 703.605.6900 email: [email protected] online ordering: http://www.ntis.gov/help/ordermethods.aspx Cover Photos: (left to right) PIX 16416, PIX 17423, PIX 16560, PIX 17613, PIX 17436, PIX 17721 Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 10% post consumer waste. Enhanced Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting and Value to Grid Operations The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project Kirsten D. Orwig Charlton Clark Transmission Grid Integration National Renewable Energy Laboratory Joel Cline Golden, CO USA Wind and Water Power Program [email protected] U.S. Department of Energy Washington, DC USA Stan Benjamin James Wilczak Catherine Finley Melinda Marquis WindLogics Grand Rapids, MN USA Earth System Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO USA Jeffrey Freedman AWS Truepower Andrew Stern Albany, NY USA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Silver Spring, MD USA Abstract—The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in The uncertainty of wind power forecasts also has an the 0- to 6-h timeframe has levels of uncertainty that are adding impact on the potential value to the user. Errors in the forecast increased costs and risks to the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely could pose substantial economic and reliability risks, recognized within the electrical grid community that particularly for grid operators and market participants. Current improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs state-of-the-art (SOA) wind power forecasting has and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind uncertainties that range from 10% to 15% mean absolute error energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a MAE (e.g., [4]). Uncertainties in the forecast can stem from research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and poor spatial resolution, inadequate boundary layer physics, Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to model drift, data assimilation technique, wind speed to power foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year conversion, etc. field measurement campaign within two regions; (2) Many meteorologists in and outside of the energy industry enhancement of NOAA’s experimental 3-km High-Resolution believe that better and more widespread measurements could Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the significantly reduce the uncertainty of current SOA forecasts. field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and This argument stems from the recognition that most near- reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This surface meteorological measurements assimilated into paper and presentation provide an overview of the regions numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are from below selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, the wind turbine hub height and that few observations resolve assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis. the full depth of the boundary layer and the lower troposphere up to ~3km depth. Keywords-forecast; numerical weather prediction; economic Therefore, the DOE sponsored a partnership with the value; measurements; grid operations; wind variability National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), private industry, and academia to answer the following I. INTRODUCTION questions: A number of wind energy integration and other studies [1– 3] have shown that wind power forecasting can provide 1. Do additional measurements lead to better forecasts? significant economic and reliability benefits for grid operators; 2. Do modified NWP models improve power forecasts? however, these studies have focused only on day-ahead forecasts. The potential value of shorter term forecasts has not 3. What value do grid operators get from better short- been explored. term (0- to 6-h) power forecasts? The U.S. Department of Energy Wind and Water Power Program, in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, sponsored the work presented here. 1 This research campaign, called the Wind Forecasting (MISO) service area (Fig. 1). There is extensive wind energy Improvement Project (WFIP), began in October 2010 and development within this region, and the meteorological consists of two project teams (Tables 1 and 2). Both projects conditions are representative of the broader Great Plains, are being conducted in three overlapping phases. The first where the majority of wind energy development is taking phase is a one-year field campaign; the second phase examines place. Seven 915-Mhz Radio Acoustic Sounding System the value of additional measurements in the NWP and power (RASS) profilers (new); 2 449-Mhz RASS profilers (new); 5 forecasts; and the third phase assesses the operational and sodars (new); 39 tall towers (existing); 3 surface flux (new); economic benefits of the improvements. The DOE, Lawrence and approximately 400 nacelle anemometers were utilized for Livermore National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National assimilation into NOAA’s NWP models. Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory provided supplemental instrumentation, technical support, and analyses. B. Southern Study Region This paper discusses the three phases for each project in detail, The southern study is led by AWS Truepower (AWST) with focus on the field campaign and NWP enhancements. and covers most of the Electricity and Reliability Council of Additional details from the southern study region can be found Texas (ERCOT) service area (Fig. 2). As of March 2012, in two accompanying papers: (1) “The Wind Forecasting ERCOT had 9,838 MW of wind capacity installed and is Improvement Project: Description and Results from the seeing instantaneous presentations up to 24% of the load [7]. Southern Study Region” by J. Freedman et al. [5] and (2) “Economic Evaluation of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasts in ERCOT: Preliminary Results” by K. Orwig et al. [6]. TABLE I. SOUTHERN STUDY REGION LED BY AWST Power Field Team Members Forecasts System Campaign Analysis NOAA X X AWS Truepower X X MESO X NC State University X X OK University X X TX Tech University X X ICF International X NREL X ERCOT X TABLE II. NORTHERN STUDY REGION LED BY WINDLOGICS Power Field Figure 1. Northern study region and instrumentation. Team Members Forecasts System Campaign Analysis NOAA X X WindLogics X X NextEra X SD State University X NREL X MISO X II. FIELD CAMPAIGN The field campaign began in August 2011 and concludes in September 2012. During this period, NOAA has been assimilating the data collected into their NWP models, discussed in Section III. A. Northern Study Region The northern study is led by WindLogics and covers a large portion of the Midwest Independent System Operator Figure 2. Southern study region and instrumentation. 2 For WFIP, new measurement systems were utilized, • A terrain-following vertical
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