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Communicatie En Strategie Van De Afghaanse Taliban in Perspectief

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Communicatie En Strategie Van De Afghaanse Taliban in Perspectief COMMUNICATIE EN STRATEGIE VAN DE AFGHAANSE TALIBAN VANUIT HET PERSPECTIEF VAN HET LEIDERSCHAP Auteurs: Godfried Wessels Seran de Leede Edwin Bakker Datum: 15 juni 2015 Centrum voor Terrorisme en Contraterrorisme Universiteit Leiden – Faculteit Campus Den Haag Koningin Julianaplein 10 2595 AA Den Haag www.campusdenhaag.nl/ctc juni 2015 Communicatie en strategie van de Afghaanse Taliban Dankwoord De onderzoekers bedanken voormalig VN-gezant voor Afghanistan Michael Semple, prof. dr. Thomas Johnson en Afghanistan-expert Alex Strick van Linschoten voor het voorzien van de onderzoekers met achtergrondinformatie over de Taliban. Tevens zijn zij vertaler Nasrat Popal erkentelijk voor zijn inzichten in de communicatie-uitingen van de Taliban in Pashto en Urdu. Tenslotte bedanken de onderzoekers Bart Schuurman en de begeleidingscommissie voor hun ondersteuning en kritische terugkoppeling op eerdere versies van dit rapport. De begeleidingscommissie bestond uit prof. dr. Isabelle Duyvesteyn (voorzitter), drs. Martin van Asperen, mr. Corine van Ginkel, drs. Martijn Schimmel en dr. Lidwien van de Wijngaert. 1 juni 2015 Communicatie en strategie van de Afghaanse Taliban Inhoudsopgave Inhoudsopgave ............................................................................................................................................... 2 Colofon ........................................................................................................................................................... 4 Samenvatting .................................................................................................................................................. 5 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... 10 Hoofdstuk 1: Introductie ............................................................................................................................. 14 1.1 Aanleiding voor het onderzoek .................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Tussen woord en daad: de communicatie-uitingen en het handelen van de Taliban ............. 15 1.3 Probleemstelling .......................................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Methode van onderzoek ............................................................................................................. 16 1.5 Afbakening en bronnen .............................................................................................................. 18 1.5.1 Shahamat-Website .............................................................................................................. 20 1.5.2 Sociale media ....................................................................................................................... 21 1.6 Structuur van dit rapport ............................................................................................................ 23 Hoofdstuk 2: De Taliban als organisatie ..................................................................................................... 24 2.1 Inleiding ....................................................................................................................................... 24 2.2 Een geschiedenis van de Taliban ................................................................................................ 24 2.3 De Taliban als organisatie: een netwerk van netwerken............................................................ 26 2.3.1 Kanttekeningen ................................................................................................................... 26 2.3.2 Het leiderschap in Pakistan ................................................................................................ 28 2.3.3 De Taliban-schaduwstaat in Afghanistan .......................................................................... 30 2.3.4 Gezag van het Taliban-leiderschap .................................................................................... 31 2.4 Ideologie, doelstellingen en grand strategy van de Taliban ....................................................... 32 2.5 Taliban-communicatie: vorm, inhoud, doelgroep en strategisch narratief ............................. 34 2.6 Conclusie ..................................................................................................................................... 36 Hoofdstuk 3: De Taliban tussen woord en daad ........................................................................................ 38 3.1 Inleiding ....................................................................................................................................... 38 3.2 De Taliban en de relatie met al-Qaida (1996 – 2011)................................................................ 38 3.2.1 Wat zegt het Taliban-leiderschap over de relatie met al-Qaida? (2011 – 2014) .............. 40 3.2.2 Sleutelmoment 1: ................................................................................................................ 41 3.2.3 Taliban en de relatie met al-Qaida in de praktijk (2011-2014) ........................................ 43 3.2.4 Conclusie: woord versus daad - de Taliban en al-Qaida ................................................... 44 3.3 De Taliban en onderwijs in Afghanistan (1996 – 2011) ............................................................ 45 3.3.1 Wat zegt het Taliban-leiderschap over onderwijs (2011 – 2014) ..................................... 46 3.3.2 Sleutelmoment 2: ................................................................................................................ 48 3.3.3 Taliban en onderwijs in de praktijk (2011-2014) .............................................................. 49 2 juni 2015 Communicatie en strategie van de Afghaanse Taliban 3.3.4 Conclusie: woord versus daad - de Taliban en onderwijs ................................................. 51 3.4 De Taliban en onderhandelingen met Kabul (2001 – 2014) ..................................................... 52 3.4.1 Wat zegt het Taliban-leiderschap over onderhandelingen met Kabul? (2011 – 2014) ... 53 3.4.2 Sleutelmoment 3: ................................................................................................................ 55 3.4.3 Taliban en onderhandelingen met Kabul in de praktijk (2011-2014) ............................. 57 3.4.4 Conclusie: woord versus daad - de Taliban en onderhandelingen met Kabul ................ 58 3.5 De Taliban en burgerslachtoffers (2001 – 2011) ....................................................................... 59 3.5.1 Wat zegt het Taliban-leiderschap over burgerslachtoffers? (2011 – 2014) ...................... 61 3.5.2 Sleutelmoment 4: ................................................................................................................ 63 3.5.3 Taliban en burgerslachtoffers in de praktijk (2011 – 2014) .............................................. 64 3.5.4 Conclusie: woord versus daad - de Taliban en burgerslachtoffers ................................... 66 3.6 Tot slot ......................................................................................................................................... 67 Hoofdstuk 4: Conclusie ............................................................................................................................... 68 4.1 Het onderzoek in een oogopslag ................................................................................................ 68 4.2 Communicatie en de Taliban ..................................................................................................... 68 4.3 Analyse: de Taliban tussen woord en daad ................................................................................ 70 4.3.1 Narratieven .......................................................................................................................... 70 4.3.2 Al-Qaida .............................................................................................................................. 71 4.3.3 Onderwijs ............................................................................................................................ 71 4.3.4 Onderhandelen.................................................................................................................... 72 4.3.5 Burgerslachtoffers ............................................................................................................... 72 4.3.6 Tussen woord en daad ........................................................................................................ 73 4.4 Communicatie-uitingen als indicator voor toekomstig handelen? .......................................... 73 4.5 Ter afsluiting ................................................................................................................................ 74 Bijlage 1: Vragenlijst voor Afghanistan experts .......................................................................................... 75 Bijlage 2: Overzicht interviews en verklaringen van de Shahamat-website .............................................. 77 Bijlage 3: Verklaringen en interviews .......................................................................................................... 82 Bijlage 3.1 - Verklaringen en interviews - Taliban en al-Qaida ............................................................. 82 Bijlage 3.2 - Verklaringen
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