Editor's Welcome

This month we have an excellent and potentially very profitable piece of research from Nick Hardman.

Nick has researched the sires that produce offspring who win when the ground is challenging.

And it turns out that you can just blindly follow the progeny of some sires when the going is soft or heavy and make strong profits.

These systems are going straight into my portfolio and I suggest you do the same.

We have another interview this month with a horse racing expert and tipster in the shape of Barrow resident Gary Poole.

Gary is the brain behind the successful Bookies Enemy No 1 tipping service and he shares his story and his thoughts on racing and form study.

Talking of tips, we have some tips for you for the upcoming Wimbledon tournament and we have selections for the Woman’s title.

Also on the tennis front we have a look at match fixing where we assess the evidence to determine how safe your money is in what can be a very lucrative betting medium.

As well as our usual reviews and tipping tables we also learn some lessons from our arbitrage friends on how to combine markets to get better odds about your selections.

I hope you enjoy this month’s issue.

All the best

Darren Power

For more information CLICK HERE

Soft Ground Sires

The influence of sires is often overlooked when it comes to a horse’s ability to act under specific ground conditions. More often one tends to consider breeding with respect to race distance or more typically its influence on speed and stamina.

For instance it is widely known that the likes of Galileo, Montjeu and Cape Cross all produce progeny who excel in black type middle distance races, whereas the offspring of Kodiac and Zebedee make excellent sprinters.

A horse’s ability to see out a trip or whether it has the requisite speed to win at sprint distances are factors that should always be considered when looking for likely race winners.

Equally important is a horse’s ability to act on the ground and this trait is often inherited through their breeding line.

Horses’ preference for specific ground conditions is to a large extent dictated by their racing action. In other words, how a horse elevates its legs, hooves and hocks whilst galloping.

A low action generally refers to one where a horse will have less elevation and does not thump down hard on the turf. These horses appear to glide or skip over the surface and are considered “top of the ground” horses.

This action is most suitable to good and firm ground.

A rounded or high action is the opposite where the action is a high elevation and the hooves come down hard on the turf. These horses tend to prefer softer ground.

A horses’ action, and hence its ability to act under specific ground conditions, are largely influenced by their breeding line.

In this article we explore some of the sires whose offspring have a particular preference, and a better record, under soft and heavy ground conditions.

We will begin by looking at soft ground sires on the flat. We will also explore the combined sire influences of ground preference and race distance.

We will then take a look at their national hunt counterparts. Using HRB I have searched the database for sires whose progeny appear to prefer soft and heavy conditions.

For both codes we concentrate on the going descriptions of soft, soft to heavy and heavy. Most flat races are run on good ground and most national hunt races on good to soft ground so there is not much point in exploring these typical conditions.

What is of greater interest is the extremes of underfoot conditions where the ground is typically testing in nature.

Authorized

If ever you needed an example of the influence of the sire on ground preference then Authorized is it. The winner of the 2007 Epsom Derby, the son of Montjeu raced only seven times in his career, winning four.

Those four wins came in the Racing Post Trophy, the Dante, the Derby and in the Juddmonte International before he was retired to stud after a disappointing run in the Prix des Arc de Triomphe. Below are his progeny statistics for all runners:

An overall strike rate of 14.56% is respectable but backing all of his progeny would have produced just a nominal profit of £2.32 to level £1 stakes.

However, if we look at the performance of his runners on different ground conditions we can see a marked preference for softer underfoot conditions. The data is show in the table below:

Right at the top of the table we can see that his progeny perform best under soft underfoot conditions with a strike rate of 20% and a level stakes profit of £96.65.

In contrast we can see that his progeny have just a 12% strike rate on good to firm ground, a 14% strike rate on good ground and they are yet to win on firm ground. If we look only at those runners on soft, soft to heavy and heavy going then we see his progeny have an overall record of 51 wins from 249 runners (21% strike rate) for a profit of £117.07.

Given Authorized’s exploits over middle distances it is no surprise to see that 49 of those 51 winners on soft, soft to heavy and heavy going came over trips of 1 mile and further. Combining this race distance with the preferred going boosts the level stakes profit to £131.32.

Summary

Sire: Authorized Going: Soft, soft to heavy, heavy Race distance: 1 mile and further

Captain Rio

Not as illustrious as our first soft ground sire Authorized, Captain Rio was a capable sprinter in his short career, winning 3 of his 8 starts including the Two Year Old Trophy at Ripon on the final start of his juvenile season. He is now a 16yo but continues to knock them out in abundance at stud. Overall his progeny statistics do not inspire a great deal of confidence:

A 10% strike rate and a level stakes loss of £211.32 does not really do justice to this precocious sire, especially when we dig a little deeper into the going preferences of this progeny.

Again, as we saw with the progeny of Authorized, the offspring of Captain Rio perform best with soft underfoot conditions. The strike rate is still a little on the low side but we can see that all of the profit comes when his progeny run on soft, yielding to soft and heavy ground. Yielding is an additional ground description used in Ireland to describe ground somewhere between good and soft.

I would personally strike a line through that description due to the low strike rate and the fact that the vast majority of that profit comes from Bootsandbars who caused a recent 50/1 shock at Naas just a couple of months ago.

If we look only at those runners on soft, soft to heavy and heavy going then we see his progeny have an overall record of 63 wins from 535 runners (12% strike rate) for a profit of £104.96. 31 of those winners came over sprint distances, although the 6f sprinters show an overall loss and the 5f specialists show a profit. A further 24 winners came in races of 7f to 1 mile and this distance category has been by far the most profitable one.

Summary:

Sire: Captain Rio Going: Soft, soft to heavy, heavy Race distance: 7f to 1 mile

We can now turn our attention to the national hunt sires and see if there are any whose progeny prefer similar testing conditions.

Karinga Bay

Karinga Bay was one of the most prolific sires in jumps racing. Sadly he passed away in 2006 which means his last crop are now 8 year old horses.

However, they include Gold Cup winner Coneygree and smart performers like General Miller, Bradley and Killala Quay. Karinga Dancer was himself a smart middle distance performer winning the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, four Group 3 races in Germany and finished runner up in the Dante and Eclipse.

Since 2003 his progeny have run some 4,278 times and won on 448 occasions at a strike rate of 10.47% but show an overall loss of £610.39.

However, if we just stick with those runners on soft, soft to heavy and heavy going then he has produced 162 winners from 1306 runners at an increased strike rate of 12.40% for an overall profit of £174.33.

What is really interesting is the performance of his progeny on heavy going:

As you can see from the table above, the progeny of Karinga Bay have the highest strike rate under the most extreme of underfoot conditions – heavy going. Not only that but backing such runners would have returned a huge level stakes profit of £199.35. Another interesting fact is that it is his hurdlers that are most profitable to follow under soft and heavy conditions:

Although both his chasers and hurdlers have an identical strike rate, it is obvious from the table above that it is his progeny over the smaller obstacles who have been most profitable to follow in the last decade.

Sadly for us, his last crop will all be 9yo horses next season and so we may only have a few more years left if we were considering backing them as part of a micro betting system. However, he is well on the way to being a grandsire and it will be interesting to see if his second generation maintain that preference for mud flying conditions.

Summary:

Sire: Karinga Bay Race conditions: Heavy Race type: Hurdles

Saint Des Saints

Saint Des Saints was a high class French jumps horse who raced exclusively at Auteuil. He won 7 of his 14 starts and amassed over £250,000 in prize money during his short career that lasted just 18 months.

His last four victories came as part of a five-timer and were in Grade 2 and Grade 3 races. Whilst many of you will be unfamiliar with his name, his progeny include such well known jumps horses as Djakadam, Quito De La Roque, Lyreen Legend, Quel Esprit and Irish Saint. We did not see the first of his progeny until 2008 and 2009 and since then his offspring have proved profitable to follow in all bar one of the following seasons.

His strike rate of 24% is the most impressive of all of the sires we have covered in this article:

2015 is shaping up to be his best year with no fewer than 15 winners from just 37 runners at a strike rate of 41% for a level stakes profit of £34.13 at the time of writing.

Looking at the performance of his progeny under different going conditions we see a similar picture to what we saw for the progeny of Karinga Bay – an extraordinary set of results on heavy ground:

It appears the softer the better for the offspring of Saint Des Saints and all of the profit comes from the most extreme conditions. Again, as we saw with Karinga Bay, it is the hurdlers from his progeny that produce most profit:

Summary:

Sire: Saint Des Saints Race conditions: Heavy Race type: Hurdles

Sir Harry Lewis

Another name you may not be familiar with, Sir Harry Lewis is best known for winning the 1987 Dee Stakes and Irish Derby. He also finished 4th in the Epsom Derby that year.

He was kept in training as a 4yo and as a 5yo, racing in both Europe and the USA, but failed to match the exploits of his 3yo campaign. His career at stud did not go well in the USA and he was shipped back to England where he became a leading sire of national hunt horses.

He died at the ripe old age of 25 in 2009, which means we can still enjoy his last crop of youngsters as they will turn seven next year. Whilst the sire himself may not be a household name, many of his progeny are past and present stars of the jumps scene and they include Mighty Man, Diamond Harry, Restless Harry, Harry Topper and Harry The Viking.

Since 2010 his progeny have run 2,750 times and produced 338 winners at a strike rate of 12.29% and show an overall level stakes loss of £140.94. However, just like our other sires in this article, his progeny save their best for more testing conditions:

Concentrating solely on his runners on soft, soft to heavy and heavy going produces 121 winners from 819 runners at a strike rate of 14.77% and a profit of £60.71.

Similar to the progeny of Karinga Bay and Saint Des Saints, the progeny of Sir Harry Lewis perform best on heavy going. However, whereas the progeny of the former two sires did not produce a profit on soft ground, the progeny of Sir Harry Lewis seem just at home under the slightly less testing conditions.

Again it is a similar story to the national hunt sires we have looked at previously in so much that it is Sir Harry Lewis’s hurdlers that produce the vast majority of profit:

Summary:

Sire: Sir Harry Lewis Race conditions: Soft and Heavy Race type: Hurdles

When looking to find suitable bets most people focus on form study, which is obviously one of the best pointers for a horse’s chances of winning.

However, it can also pay to look at breeding. This is often done if you want to see if your potential selection has sufficient speed or stamina for the race distance in question. Just as important, and often overlooked, is the effect of breeding on a horse’s ability to act on the going.

Nick Hardman is the Big Race Specialist at the Betting School Insiders Club and his tips are over 160 points in profit so far this year - http://bettinginsiders.com

Gary Poole - The man behind Bookies Enemy No 1 and Trackerman

1. Gary, when did you first develop your interest in horse racing? What or who got you interested in the sport of kings?

I suppose, maybe like many it was just by wandering into a bookies when I was a kid! We used to regularly play truant at school and I used spend some afternoons in my local bookies spending my hard earned paper round / milk round wages (and sometimes my dinner money) on the horse/dogs racing. I never had a clue what I was doing to be honest and just used to rely largely on luck, maybe that's why I could never afford to save up for a bike and my Mam used to wonder why I always came home from school starving!

2. Have there been any pivotal moments or influences in your early betting life that have shaped your style and approach to betting? How would you describe your approach?

When I realised (from a very early age) that I was losing far too much money at horse racing I suddenly discovered a new word, the word was "tipster”!! I couldn't believe just how good some of them were and I thought I'd struck gold when I discovered the likes of Pricewise (Mel Collier and then later Tom Segal) of the Racing Post and also later on Hugh Taylor from ATR. I quickly dropped my own silly betting techniques and stuck to the new rules of dumping the “mug's game" trying to find my own winners and sticking to following the best tipsters around.

This was virtually guaranteed profit in the long term. Over the years I've read books and studied the methods of how other tipsters find their winners plus added a few of my own and slowly I’ve got into finding my own winners and not having to rely on others tipsters.

One method I discovered in around 2003 was a system more than a standard form reading technique to find winners and I haven't discovered or seen a more profitable system since.

I used to work as an Aircraft Fitter before betting became profitable enough for me to do it full time, but the pivotal moment came when I discovered this system which was one afternoon when I was in between contracts. I was lazing on the settee going through "Ceefax" looking for horse racing results to see if any of my selections had won and whilst doing this I would also just look at the "first show" of the next race. The first show would come on about 10 mins before the race (yes this just shows how bored I must have been) and during the next hour or so (about 6 races) I noticed a regular pattern occurring in that the horses that were getting backed seemed to be the ones that were winning, in fact 5 of the 6 races were won by a horse that had been backed.

I thought this may just be a coincidence so I did the same the next day and the day after and of all the races I watched an incredible 80% of them were won by a horse that was getting backed!

So, I noted all the horses, did a bit of research and kept an eye on Ceefax for the next two weeks and decided that there must be a way of making money out of this.

I then thought if the horses are getting backed on course at say 10/1 into 6/1 and winning then what price will these horses have been in the morning at around 10.00am when the prices for the race first came out?

Around this time I was buying my first house and had also bought my first ever computer so I sat and did a bit of research and found a website called "Oddschecker" which is of course very popular now and well known but wasn't so much 12 years ago.

I did exactly the same again as I did when staring at the screen watching Ceefax only this time the prices were much bigger because they had only just come out, so the prices that were getting backed on Ceefax 10 mins before the off , say 10/1, were now maybe 16/1 or greater on Oddschecker.

Horses getting backed turned blue so they were easy to spot. I did this again for about a week only this time I backed them using very small stakes and I just couldn't believe the success I had, it was amazing to see that so many of the horses that were being backed actually won and won at huge prices!

My theory was right in that the on course prices that I was seeing on Ceefax were indeed a lot bigger in the morning prices and it was a case of "Eureka"!!!

It felt like I'd found the Promised Land and that I would never have to work again and I was right! After about a month of watching the pc screen and clicking through each race every day on Oddschecker from about 8.00am till 12.00am backing horses that were turning blue before the prices decreased I had built up enough money to confirm that I had found a "new job" and that Aircraft Fitting was no longer for me. I had made about 4 times more from horse racing than I would from contracting and I carried on doing that for about the next 10 years!

The best example I can give you which is by far my biggest ever win in one bet was one I will never forget.

I used the method highlighted above and permed 4 horses (can't remember their names) all of which were getting backed and turning blue on Oddschecker and they were 20/1 16/1 14/1 and 8/1 and to my amazement they all won!

It paid a whopping £36,000 from William Hill and would have been even more had there not been three big rule 4's!

I just carried on doing that for 10 years and made a good living from it, but with bookies closing my accounts and limiting my stakes and with there also being so many tipsters around now it can make more horses get backed and it makes it very hard to see where the "genuine" money is going.

I'm sure it will still be profitable but it's much harder to pinpoint the right horses and the shrewd money so it’s definitely not as easy or lucrative as it was back then, plus with all the restrictions going on I decided I needed a change.

After some 12 months or so of hard work studying form and races etc. and proofing the selections to forums the Bookies Enemy No1 service was born.

3. The Bookies Enemy No 1 service has enjoyed a profitable first 12 months, so what made you want to add the Trackerman service to the stable? How would you explain the fundamental difference between the two services?

At the moment I'm probably watching far too many races and it's giving me a mountain of Tracker horses to look at virtually every day and I just don't have the time to study each race the horses are running in. During the time I've used my Tracker I've noticed that backing all the selections even blindly without studying each race is still very profitable so long as each horse has it's correct conditions i.e. ground / trip / draw etc. and if they do, then depending of the strength of its last run or simply how unlucky it was, I decide which service the horse should go in.

The Bookies Enemy service will always get my strongest selections but plenty of times the lesser strength selections win and sometimes at huge prices so to enable me to cover this situation I decided I needed two services as having one just wouldn't be enough and it would end up with maybe up to 25 tips in a day!

4. What does a typical day in the life of a tipster involve? Given the amount of racing on a daily basis how do you reach your final decision for your selections?

Well I suppose it all depends on what each tipster focuses on. With me it's mainly studying races and looking for horses that might be better than what they've shown be it down to bad luck or not having the right ground / trip / draw etc. Maybe they have been running better than expected due to any track bias so I'll spend most evening doing all the "groundwork" of watching race replays and filling my Tracker and then in the mornings I'll maybe spend a bit of time at the gym or go for a run before coming back home and resuming work.

I like to watch a bit of racing in the afternoon and take a few notes but I need to start deciding which horses I'll be sending out at around 6.00pm as that's when both services get their selections.

I'll study in detail as many races as I can that include each horse but when I have say 16 horses running with their correct conditions I don't have time to study every race so I'll just quickly double check that each of the horses that I don't have time to check the races of all have the right conditions in their given races and add them to the list of the Trackerman horses.

5. The name, Bookies Enemy No 1, is quite a bold one; can we assume you are a fan of Patrick Veitch? What made you choose the Bookies Enemy No 1 handle?

Yeah I do have his book and it's a really enjoyable read!

The name of the book "Enemy Number One" admittedly gave me an idea and with me having over 100 bookies accounts closed or restricted over the years I just thought It's fair enough to assume the bookies don't like me very much and if I add "Bookies" to the front of that title I don't get accused of copying.

I doubt I'm their No1 Enemy but I like the name!

6. We all know that losing runs in any service are part and parcel of life. How would you recommend people cope with these, any advice?

Both of my services are still relatively new so I'm still finding it hard to cope with the losing runs myself and being so passionate about my "job" I no doubt always will.

I think for me personally the key to dealing with the stress of losing runs is to remember the success I've had in the past and compare the methods I used to produce those winners. If there are any changes then check to see if they're having a negative effect on the results and adjust accordingly.

As a punter following my selections, to cope with a long losing spell I would try looking into the reasons why the horse(s) are not winning and make sure you watch the races. If horses keep on running poorly with no explanations then that might suggest I'm not picking the right horses but if my selections are still outrunning their prices even though they're not winning then this tells you that even though they’re not winning you any money the selections are still the "right" ones, which in essence is what this game is all about. If you keep backing horses that outrun their price then you will profit.

7. What criteria do you feel constitutes a successful day, is it solely financial gain or do you feel that there is more to success, if so what?

A successful day for me right now is simply finding winner(s) for my members, nothing else matters. as with any new business / project making it a success is such a rewarding feeling and knowing I've just won members a nice wedge of money makes my day!

8. Do you have a particular favourite race track, meeting, or race type?

It has to be the big sprint handicaps. I don't have a favourite track and I hardly go racing myself. I’ve been going to Cartmel Races virtually every year since I was about 6.

I'm not a big jumps fan so don't get involved in betting there and to be honest I just go for the day out and to drink (usually far too much) with friends and maybe go on the Wonder Waltzers and then be sick!

But that's by far the nearest track to where I live in Barrow so getting to the races anywhere else is always a chore with the closest being Haydock which is a good 2 hours’ drive.

9. Do you have any personal highlights with regards to your experiences within the horse racing industry?

Taking £36,000 off Bill Hill.

10. Is there one horse or trainer that we should watch out for the future in your opinion? What has brought them to your attention?

Hugo Palmer is definitely a trainer to watch along with Simon Crisford.

11. What do you enjoy most about horse racing, would you like to see anything changed in the sport?

Finding winners right now but there's so much I would like to do, maybe own a racehorse one day! I think racing is great the way it is.

12. Do you have any interests outside of horse racing?

I struggle to do much else right now with this all still being relatively new but I like to get out and socialise with my mates when I can and charm the ladies (I wish).

I run, play badminton, golf occasionally and get to the gym as often as possible.

For more information CLICK HERE

As good as any man?

We recently read a quote which made us chuckle, apparently women’s tennis “has about as much resemblance to the men’s game as boxing does to fencing”.

Well it got us thinking…

Are the two styles of play so very different and if so how?

Both the Women’s Tennis Association and the Men’s Association of Tennis Professionals tours run a very similar schedule throughout the year, and to all intents and purposes the games are the same animal.

One thing cannot be denied though and that is that physically the men’s game is much stronger. There are a few women players out there who can hit the ball with speed and power but they would be hard pressed to match one of their male counterparts.

Many consider the women’s matches to be unpredictable compared to the men’s game. Admittedly the men can probably serve harder and faster and their ground strokes will be bigger too which may make a slight difference.

Their style of play may mean that returners will struggle to return the ball having less time to see the missile heading towards them. Consequently in men’s tennis the server will tend to hold their serve and serve more aces than their female counterparts. One break of serve in a men’s match can mean they lose their service game and this can sometimes be enough for their opponent to clinch a set.

With women’s tennis you may find it a little more difficult to predict who will hold their serve. Women do tend to lose their serve more than men but this doesn’t necessarily mean that they are poor servers it can just be as simple as the fact that the power they have in their serve is not sufficient to stop that ball from being returned.

Unforced errors tend to be more common in the women’s game. Men tend to have a much broader game using slices and spins more often than their female colleagues.

So we admit that it is unlikely that women tennis players will ever be able to match the men in terms of the physicality of the game, but there are some seriously powerful female players out there. The female tournaments are no lesser than the men’s in our opinion.

These women are professionals. They are out to win their matches just as much as the men; they train as hard, maybe even harder. Unpredictable maybe, but the emotional tantrums associated with women’s tennis can just as often be seen in the men’s matches, it’s just the women may be less afraid of expressing themselves demonstratively, though a few tantrums will usually occur with the boys matches too.

It will probably be no surprise to learn that at the time of writing Serena Williams is the favourite this year to win the Wimbledon ladies final. A quick look on www.oddschecker.com shows her currently being offered at between 8/5 and 2/1 generally across the board.

The price is short enough and of course, whatever the price if she wins again, a win is a win.

She faces some stiff competition this year, and as 2014 demonstrated she can just as easily fall by the wayside being beaten by a better grass court player on the day. You can guarantee that there will be a few players looking to try and upset the Robinsons juice cart this year.

Serena Williams has five Wimbledon titles from 15 attempts so far, a one in three strike rate which may lead us to think that she is heading for a possible win this year having not won the Wimbledon title since 2012. If she does win this year she will add a 20th Grand Slam title to her name and so she may be keen to round the numbers.

There is no doubt she is still a formidable opponent at the age of 33, if not downright scary for some players, but are there any younger players with talent and strength possibly heading through the ranks?

She has been winning and there is no doubt having won the US and Australian Opens she can be filled with confidence, but both of these tournaments were on hard courts and the grass court game is different. She has been known to show the odd chink in the armour from time to time and can blow hot and cold from one tournament to the next which definitely makes her unpredictable.

It just needs someone to pierce through that armour so at the price we think we’d like to put our money to work where it can offer us greater value. With Serena priced so short it is always worth looking to find extra value on one of her rivals. The competition this year is fierce and there have been some interesting surprises on the grass courts over recent years.

Are there any younger players who can look to take the crown? Can looking back to 2014 give us any indicators?

Simona Halep

Currently ranked third in the singles ranking is Simona Halep from Romania and aged 23.

She made it to the semi-finals last year and beat the 2013 finalist Sabine Lisicki in straight sets in the quarter finals only to be beaten in the semi-finals by Eugenie Bouchard from Canada.

She won the BNP Paribas Open earlier in the year and that will have added to her experience and undoubtedly to her confidence too. The only thing to remember though here is that this win came on hard court and grass as we have mentioned is a different game.

Eugenie Bouchard

Eugenie Bouchard is another contender. The Canadian is just 21 years of age but already has a singles ranking of eleven.

This may be a contentious suggestion given her breakdowns on court, but a bad player doesn’t become bad overnight. If she can get her mind into the game she could be up there with the best of the rest again and at the prices on offer she deserves that chance.

As we are writing this she has accepted the offer of a late wild card entry into the Aegon classic at Birmingham.

“I love playing on grass and I've played some of my best tennis on this surface. I'm looking forward to coming back to Birmingham,” said Bouchard, and we wonder therefore if she may just think this could be the tournament to give her the confidence to perform well at Wimbledon.

Agnieszka Radwanska

Agnieszka Radawnska is aged 26 and from Poland.

She “stormed into the semi-finals” of the Aegon Open in Nottingham this year and she's now lost a total of just 11 games through three matches at the International-level stop.

She commented herself that "I think I was just a little bit more aggressive, not just in the match overall but at the end of each set and on the important points. That's what I did well today."

"I'm really starting to feel my game on the grass, and I'm really starting to feel more and more comfortable on it…”

If she can keep that attitude odds of 33/1 – 50/1 just seem too high.

She was after all a Wimbledon finalist in 2012 and a semi-finalist in 2013.

Our selections

1 point win on Simona Halep – 20/1 Corals (12/1-18/1 generally available).

Bet the following 0.50pts each way / to reach the final. Eugenie Bouchard – 50/1 Corals (25/1 – 33/1 generally available). Agnieska Radwanska – 60/1 BWin (25/1 – 33/1 generally available).

How did we fair last Issue with our Placepot?

That last leg let us down again!

Our “Alternative Approach” gave us the following results:

Race 1 – Cobana Sand 5th 12/1 and Ocean Eleven 3rd 25/1 Race 2 – Saturation Point Last 10/1 and Squire Won4/1 Race 3 – Fallen For A Star 2nd 8/11F Race 4 – Excellent Puck 2nd 11/1 (Nse) Race 5 – Krafty One 7th 20/1 and Tempting 3rd 8/1 (btn nk and nse) Race 6 – Hound Music 10th 14/1 and Cascading Stars 6th 14/1

The Placepot paid £145.50 for a £1.00 stake

Cascading Stars was running well and went 1.69 in running and was “pressing leaders” when “hampered inside the final furlong” – you never know we may have sneaked a place :(

For more information CLICK HERE

Product Reviews Welcome Back

This month we have two new services under review as well as a look over those methods and systems currently under the microscope.

VIP Club Tips

Cost - £45.00 per month

Racing tips are supplied by morning email from Ross of www.racing-riches.co.uk

The Trial We have been following this service since the 4th May and the website claims that the service has a positive performance record for every month since the start of the year making on average 20 points profit a month based on level stakes at Betfair SP less 5% commission.

In total we have received 39 selections which included 5 winners at Betfair SP, with prices ranging between 1.88 and 5.50 resulting in an overall loss after commission of 19.20 points.

Maybe this is just a minor blip and things can be rectified. We will report back in our next Issue and let you know whether they can meet their claims, or sadly fall by the wayside.

Conclusion - The jury is out.

Find out more about VIP Club Tips - Click Here

Betfairway

Cost - £40.00 every 28 days or £99.00 every 90 days. Annual subscription £199.00

This is a golf betting service said to be run by an experienced team of experts which advises selections by email together with suggested stakes, normally 5 points win or 2.5 points each-way together with the available bookie’s odds.

The Trial We have been monitoring this service since the beginning of May and so far we are 136 points in profit to the stakes advised or 27.2 points to level 1point win or 0.5 point each- way.

There have been 51 tips with 10 showing a profit: 6 win bets with odds between 11/10 & 3/1 and 4 each-ways of which 3 were placed at odds ranging from 40/1 to 80/1 and an outright winner backed each-way at 60/1 - Rickie Fowler at the Sawgrass Players Championship.

So, even with its longest losing run of 11, this is a promising start which will hopefully continue until our next issue.

Conclusion - Recommended on current performance.

Find out more about Betfairway - Click Here

Updates

Bank Builder

Last month you may remember that we commented on how the provider of this service had promised that better times were ahead, fortunately this has actually proven to be the case.

Overall during May there were 50 bets which were advised to be backed with one or two points to win or one point each way, and 23 of these bets showed a positive result. A strike rate of 46% is highly commendable and resulted in a healthy 31 points profit if you had taken Best Odds Guaranteed early prices.

Such a positive return has been more than sufficient to end our review in a positive realm with the bank ending up 14 points over a three month period.

Find out more about The Bank Builder – Click Here

Lucky Seven Naps

We only received a further two days of tips from this service which produced 4 winners from 14 bets and an additional profit of 33 points at the advised odds (although at Betfair SP the results were just breakeven).

Find out more about Lucky 7 Naps – Click Here

Bet Alchemist

We have continued to keep an eye on this service, and although they had the 1st and 2nd in the big sprint race on the last Saturday in May which brought them a monthly profit of 7.20 points, it has been slow going. Overall we are looking at a loss of 12.33 points in almost 4 months and this is not good enough when you are paying subscriptions to any service.

Find out more about Bet Alchemist – Click Here

National Hunt Specialist

We have also kept a close eye on the National Hunt Specialist service, now renamed The Specialist. A further monthly profit of 13 points brings the total profit this year to 72pts at Betfair SP. We should also mention that their flat selections are also now showing a profit.

Find out more about The Specialist – Click Here

Tom Nelson Racing

We have now ceased receiving selections for this service. At the time the selections ceased the service was showing a monthly profit of 56 points at their advised prices and 28 points at Betfair SP. As previously stated this is not a bad service per se but do not be taken in by the profits claimed. You cannot match them.

Find out more about Tom Nelson Racing – Click Here

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Tipster Top Ten

Our On Course Top Ten looks to search out those services which over the past three months have actively produced either, a good strike rate and modest profit or a good rate of return with a lower strike rate, ideally both.

If your gambling style is risk averse, and you are someone who struggles to handle the losing runs, then search for a Tipster who is providing a good strike rate with a reasonable ROI (Return on Investment). That way you can look to earn steady profits and stand less chance of suffering long losing runs.

If you are a high risk taker and happy to wait out those long losing runs then you can look to those Tipsters who may have a considerably lower strike rate, but who tip those larger priced winners which often give a greater ROI overall.

All of our top ten services are collated based on their performance over a three month period recorded at level stakes and Best Odds Guaranteed.

If you are new to betting and have time to shop around then you should certainly look to make the most of the Best Odds Guaranteed prices.

1. Nap Investor - Strike Rate 28% ROI 64% Moving to the top of the table this month is Nap Investor. The service claims to be a tried, tested and proven WIN only bet service which analyses breeding, past performance, race times and running style to assess the horses and choose their selections. Find out more about the service

2. Lucky 7 Naps - Strike Rate 30% ROI 52% Also moving up the table is Lucky 7 Naps. Lucky 7 Naps has been in the Top Ten for five of the last 6 months so they must be doing something right. They are a "specialist racing profits syndicate" which claims to offer "consistent cash profits". Find out more about the service

3. StableLine Gold - Strike Rate 28% ROI 48% Stableline Gold is a horse backing service from Simon Holden which claims to have inside contacts in “every major training centre in the United Kingdom”. The profitability is good, but it does come with a very hefty price tag and as such is possibly not for the everyday punter, and is more suited to the serious large bettors amongst you. Find out more about the service

4. BK Man At The Races - Strike Rate 34% ROI 42% Moving up one place this month is BK Man At The Races. A horse racing advice service from Bet Kudos’s ‘inside man’ claiming to provide insider information on both horses and jockeys. Tips are delivered by email 4-5 times a week. Find out more about the service

5. Bookmaker Insider - Strike Rate 34% ROI 38% A service which offers “actual insider knowledge that the bookmakers use to make BIG profits!” The service offers tips together with an explanation as to why they have chosen that particular selection. You will receive information on the “strongest three races to bet on each day, and for each of those races I’ll be giving a star rating to the strongest horses in the race”. Find out more about the service

6. Betting Opportunity - Strike Rate 36% ROI 34% Specialises in win and each way bets they also “have informers who specialise in long shots but don't offer a public service so when we get our inside information from these highly trusted sources we'll pass it on to you at no extra charge”. Find out more about the service

7. Horse Betting Analyst - Strike Rate 21% ROI 31% Horse Betting Analyst moves up one place this month following their re-entry last month. Best suited to those who have little or no trouble placing their bets with the bookmakers this has shown a healthy return. Find out more about the service

8. Race Bet Formula - Strike Rate 25% ROI 21% The author recommends their “tried and tested staking plan and help you create a betting bank”. The service looks to take early prices so this may not suit all of you. Find out more about the service

9. Racing Consultants - Strike Rate 22% ROI 19% Rory Delargy a freelance racing writer and broadcaster of Timeform Radio fame and David Massey a freelance consultant pool their knowledge of form study; paddock watching, replay watching and networking contacts to bring a racing consultancy service like no other. Find out more about the service

10. Weekender Special – Strike Rate 33% ROI 19% A combination of weekend bets from both horse racing and football give this service a little something special for the weekend Find out more about this service

Game, Set and Match Fixed?

Does tennis have a problem with illicit betting and gambling scandals?

There is no doubt that significant amounts of money are gambled on tennis, in fact back in 2007 tennis was the third most wagered upon sport on Betfair, and we doubt those statistics have changed much with the number of people involved in trading on the game.

You don’t need to be a genius to see the appeal of tennis as a betting sport.

We are talking about a sport which is one on one; broken down into definite sections with points, games, sets, matches and tournaments. The odds are continuously swinging from one player to another, and there is a match probably being played somewhere in the world every waking hour. It is a traders dream.

But, does tennis suffer the same fate as horse racing and football? Would a tennis player “throw” a match for a big bet pay out? We don’t really know but there are suggestions that this has been an intention in the past.

In September 2008 tennis became one of the first sports to establish its own dedicated anti-corruption unit, being charged with the role of enforcing a zero tolerance policy towards gambling related corruption worldwide.

Its first measure was the implementation of the Tennis Anti-Corruption Program which came in to effect on 1st January 2009, a joint venture between the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) the World Tennis Association (WTA) and the Grand Slam board.

The program is designed to ensure that the integrity of the sport is maintained by protecting against any efforts of anyone to influence the results or the progress of any tennis match. What does this mean in practice?

It means that if anyone covered under its provisions has any involvement with tennis betting they run the very real risk of ending their careers permanently. The same penalties can also be applied if they look to attempt to profit from providing any inside information which they know or they suspect is being used for betting purposes.

So why was it deemed necessary to introduce such a Program into a sport which is often considered often an elitist and upper class game?

Let’s face it where money is involved there will always be someone prepared to chance their arm at a way to manipulate and engineer, by any means possible, a profitable outcome. Whether that by fair means or foul. It is likely that irregular betting patterns have played their part in the sport from its inception and this issue is unlikely to go away.

With the advent of the internet there has undoubtedly been introduced an added incentive to the sport for shall we say shadier characters to attempt to influence players particularly in the lower ranks, but, not exclusively.

Nothing surprised people more than the shock win by the British tennis player Richard Bloomfield against Christophe Rochus in 2010 which aroused suspicions amongst the powers that be. The odds originally were stacked well against Bloomfield for this match but by the time they got on the court the odds had moved amazingly in Bloomfields favour. He was backed at odds of 1-4 to beat Rochus when playing against him at Rhode Island.

It raised the question, did some parties know that Rochus wasn’t going to be playing to his best, or able to play to win the match. Had he already decided that, that day he wouldn’t be winning?

Ranked at the time at only 552nd in the world, Bloomfield’s first round upset victory at the ATP tour in Newport against Rochus, ranked 38, meant that an investigation was launched into the circumstances surrounding the match.

Strange betting patterns had been noticed before the game. The match had attracted more than £1 million in bets and the unexplained changes in the prices of both competitors drew attention from the Tennis Integrity Unit. The tennis fans watched as the underdog from Norfolk, aged 27, played and won his match against the Belgian winning 7-6, 6-3.

It was only the second ever match at ATP tour level Bloomfield had won in his career.

Investigators had to ask, did Christophe Rochus deliberately lose the game, and why was so much money bet on what was considered to be a relatively obscure match in what was a 250 level tournament? In fact, the lowest step on the main ATP tour ladder.

Other equivalent matches had attracted 15-20 times less money on the Betfair exchange.

Some bookmakers even stopped taking bets several hours before the match commenced. Something certainly appeared suspicious.

After only one set Bloomfield’s odds had shortened in running to 1-8, or put it another way you would need to have staked £8.00 to win £1.00. After a mere one hour twenty- two minutes Bloomfield had won his place into the next round where he came up against the world number 54, Columbia’s Santiago Giraldo who he also defeated.

Maybe Bloomfield was actually playing the best tennis of his life? He actually went on to reach the semi-finals of the event.

According to the BBC Betfair contacted the TIU over the betting patterns they had noticed. The exchange has a “memorandum of understanding” with the ATP that they will work in partnership to counter any corruption issues in the sport. The ATP also has similar arrangements with other UK and European bookmakers.

Tony Calvin, the then Press Officer at Betfair said “There was more interest than would normally be the case in a match of that nature. People were talking about a gamble prior to the match on forums and there may have been the element of a bandwagon effect”.

A TIU spokesman said "The Tennis Integrity Unit works closely and co-operatively with the betting industry to monitor betting patterns on tennis matches around the world,” "As an operational policy the unit does not comment on any investigation that it may or may not be involved in."

Prior to the win against Rochus, Bloomfield’s only other win had been back in Wimbledon in 2006 where he again unwittingly was caught up in the scent of a betting scandal. He defeated Argentina’s Carlos Berloq in straight sets. The match was investigated purely as a result of the weight of money placed on him to win.

It appears that at neither time was there any suggestion that Bloomfield himself was a party to the scandals.

Ultimately no conclusion was reached regarding his Wimbledon win as Berlocq it appeared had been carrying an injury so the word of that may have “got out”, after all this is possible, the most likely explanation of betting markets going awry particularly with the invention of social media. Nothing is secret for long any more.

The most defining match with regard to the issue of possible tennis scandals though has to be that between Russia’s Nikolay Davydenko and Argentina’s Martin Vassallo Arguello back in August 2007 at the Poland Open.

The spectators sitting in the stands saw nothing untoward. The court was, well a standard tennis court, the day a normal day.

Davydenko had come into the match as the fourth ranked player on the tour and the defending champion. Vasallo Arguello was ranked 87th and had yet to win an ATP singles title, so it would have appeared to be a relatively clean cut match, yet things don’t always pan out as we think they should.

An hour before the match started there was a movement of money to such an extent that Vassallo Arguello became the favourite.

Davydenko won the first set as expected, 6-2 yet bets still poured in for Vassallo Arguello. Why? Tennis is seen as one of those sports which are perfect for trading on so the expectation would have been for Vassallo Arguello’s price to drift and the sensible money head onto Davydenko.

Davydenko lost the second set 6-3.

Maybe the Russians knew that in the third set Davydenko would withdraw from the match, retiring with a foot injury, because that is exactly what happened. Betfair took the unprecedented steps of voiding all bets on the match and this was the first time that they had ever taken such action and prompted Betfair's market-integrity investigators to launch an investigation into the match.

One punter who was following the match said that Davydenko’s pre match odds drifted out to 2.30 (equivalent to 11/8) against even though he was set to meet a player who was ranked 83 places below him.

When Betfair suspended the match the amount traded was showing $7, 310,429 (£3,590,595) bets had been placed and accepted which was more than double that taken on another second round match in the same tournament. $1.1 million was placed on Vassallo Arguello by three Russian based accounts alone. What did they know that the average punter didn’t?

A year later Davydenko was absolved of any part in the suspected betting scandal but Ben Gunn and Jeff Rees, both former London police officers and the men behind the “Environmental Review of Integrity in Professional Tennis” both concluded that “tennis is vulnerable to corrupt betting practices”. In fact the word “vulnerable” appears in their report 15 times.

Their report stated:

“A large majority of current and former players we interviewed claimed to “know of” approaches to players being invited to ‘throw matches’ presumably for corrupt betting purposes”. What is more, the review identifies 45 matches over five years where there were “specific concerns about each match from a betting perspective which would warrant further review.”

An independent report concluded that the game was perfectly set up for corruption.

Particular attention is paid to the concerns of punters on the Betfair site's tennis forum. One forum member told the Guardian newspaper: "It has become increasingly obvious recently that there are a significant number of 'fixed' tennis matches being played. It is obvious to anyone with some experience of the normal Betfair market behaviour and the appropriate odds for a tennis match that certain low-level ATP matches are being fixed, with corresponding irrational market patterns."

Betfair has not disclosed how many times it has previously invoked its memorandum with the ATP tour but has stated that "We look at all matches all the time." "We have an integrity and fraud team of more than 40 people." They have also confirmed that they would act on any comments or debate found on its forum. A spokesperson said "You can't miss what is said on our forum, which is there for all to see."

When asked whether men’s tennis had a problem with match fixing Novak Djokovic was quoted as saying that players fake injuries all of the time. "Unfortunately, yes," Djokovic said “Usually, it's more in the other sports like football, basketball. Now there are more and more cases in tennis, which is, of course, a bad thing for the sport and all the tennis players. Those kinds of things are putting away all the sponsors and all the important people from our sport."

Maybe something to bear in mind next time you consider placing a bet on a tennis player. Is he / she really worthy of your money? Will they be playing to their full potential? You’ll never really know…will you?

Improving the odds.

Any good arbitrageur knows that the most important path to success, apart from of course managing to keep your accounts open and making sure that you understand the maths is ensuring that you achieve the very best odds possible. By obtaining the best odds you can ensure that you can also achieve the largest arbs.

Now what we are about to explain may at first seem highly complex but putting this concept into practise is in truth relatively simple. It is imperative that you get the very best return possible for all of your hard work.

Imagine the scenario. You currently buy your 5 litres of milk from Sainsbury’s (other supermarkets are also available) and then you see an advert for Asda. They are 5p cheaper. Which supermarket do you buy your milk from? We are sure that there are a number of people who would happily drive an extra mile or two to save a few pennies. Oh and whilst you are at it you could also fill up at the petrol station there as their petrol is 1p a litre cheaper too!

We’ll ask you a simple question.

Option 1 - Do you apply the same methodical detailed analysis of prices to your daily betting and take the 4/1 available if you shop around?

Option 2 - Do you place your bet at your friendly familiar bookmaker at 3/1 and hang the 25% enhanced odds and the extra potential profit that may find its way into your betting bank?

It doesn’t matter whether you are an arbitrageur or a general day to day gambler the one rule to follow is ALWAYS, to take the best odds that you can. No, it won’t necessarily improve your chances of winning, but it will improve the return you take home in your back pocket as cold hard cash. When a bookmaker looks to make their betting book, the list of odds for each race or event, they make what is known as an overround. The overround shows you clearly how much profit they are making based on the prices that they are offering at the time.

For example, with football matches the bookmakers overround tends to be in the region of 112%, the 12% being the bookmaker’s profit margin. Some of the internet bookmakers will possibly show a smaller overround; say for example 108% as they have significantly less over heads to take into account.

In the case of horse racing the overround in some instances can be as high as 130%!

So how do we know what the overround is for a bookmaker?

The overround is calculated by converting the odds quoted to a percentage.

For example a horse quoted at 4/1 the percentage equivalent is (4+1) = 5 where the 1 represents the stake placed by the gambler.

We then divide this figure into 100.

100/5 = 20%

Then add up all of the possible outcomes for that event.

So if we look at the odds on Oddschecker for the 16.55 race below. What is the overround for bet365 on this race?

Remember we need to add 1 to the prices to represents the stake bet.

Perfect Bounty 4/1 = (100/5) = 20%

Royal Normandy 5/1 = (100/6) = 16.67%

Speculator 5/1 = (100/6) = 16.67%

Grand Proposal 7/1 = (100/8) = 12.50%

St Pauls Square 8/1 = (100/9) = 11.11%

Western Playboy 8/1 = (100/9) = 11.11%

Castanea 8/1 = (100/9) = 11.11%

Inauguration 16/1 = (100/17) = 5.88%

Lady Bling 22/1 = (100/23) = 4.35%

Zebella 33/1 = (100/34) = 2.94%

Total overround 112.34%%

Whatever the outcome of the race the bookmaker aims to make a profit of 12.34%

In theory the bookmaker should try and “balance” his book by shortening some prices where he is taking in money and lengthening other prices where there is no money being bet making the runners more or less attractive.

The balanced book though is something which is seldom seen; well a bookie has to earn a crust too.

We can use this overround though to find better odds on our chosen bet selection.

Rather than placing your bet at your nearest betting shop, or using the online betting site you find easiest to use, shop around.

Do a little research by using odds comparison sites such as our friend www.oddschecker.com or www.bestbetting.com.

Check the odds being offered for your selection and take the very best price you can.

It is widely accepted that you can get up to 25% better odds just by shopping around, and you may be surprised to know that the best prices are not always on the exchanges.

Most exchange markets will have an over round in the region of 100%, meaning that in the perfect world all you would lose if you backed every horse in the race would be the commissions charged by the exchange. If you are particularly into horse racing keep an eye out for those Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers’ offers we have mentioned in previous articles.

Take your time and give a little care to the bookmaker you select if they are an online presence by visiting www.sportsbookreview.com.

This website can give you a good insight into any complaints particular bookmaker websites have received, whether they are slow to pay out, how helpful their customer services are etc. There is also a useful forum where you can join and ask other gamblers their experiences of particular bookmakers.

The site gives each bookmaker a rating from A+ down to F, with A+ being the best rating, think school reports. Winning at an online bookmaker may be one thing but getting paid out in some instances may prove more difficult than you first think. Some of the lesser known sites are notorious for drawing you in then finding a small clause somewhere in their terms and conditions which is open to “interpretation”. Don’t get pulled in and misled by a crooked bookmaker.

Some of you may be aware of “Asian Handicap” prices which we have touched on in passed issues. These are generally used to “even out” the odds where there is a big difference in the strengths of say two teams, e.g. Manchester United v Stoke.

If Manchester United were playing at home then the bookmaker may price the teams up with an Asian Handicap so that Manchester United are -0.5 offered at 10/11 (1.91 decimal) and Stoke are +0.5 10/11 (1.91). Got it?

If you bet on a Team A with a handicap of -0.5 you are effectively removing half a goal from the final score line. So, if Team A win 1-0 then your bet will win as they have won by 0.50 (or half a goal) to nil.

On the same basis if you bet Team B with a handicap of +0.50 or effectively give Team B a half a goal advantage you are adding half a goal to the final score line.

If Team B’s match ends a draw 1-1 then your bet on Team B is the winner as your Team will in effect have scored 1.50 goals.

Arbitrageurs will use the handicaps extensively. They are a great way to improve the percentage of the arb.

Let us assume that we are looking at the two teams mentioned above and that Manchester United is being offered at 6/4 (2.50) to win the match. So they have a 40% chance of winning the match according to the bookmaker. (Yes the odds are unlikely but this is just for illustrative purposes).

Backing Manchester United at home at 6/4 and the draw at 5/2 will give us a total percentage of 68.57%.

(100/2.50) = 40%

Plus

(100/3.50) = 28.57%

40% + 28.57% = 68.57%

So the total percentage we have to cover the home win AND the draw is 68.57%. If we take the Asian Handicap -0.25 bet and “remove” a quarter of a goal at 1.91 and then bet the draw we can increase our percentage.

Assume our stake is £100.00

If Manchester United win by one goal or more we win

£100 x 1.91 on the Asian Handicap = £191.00 returned including our stake.

If the match is a draw then we will get back half of our stake on the Asian Handicap = £50.00.

We therefore need to cover the remaining £141.00 to ensure we get back £191.00 in total.

£141.00 / 3.50 (2.50 +1.00 stake) = £40.28 to stake on the draw.

Total staked £100.00 + £40.28 = £140.28 to give a return of £191.00 if Manchester United win or draw the match.

£140.28/£191.00 = 73.44%

So we have enhanced our odds by 4.87% (73.44% less 68.57%)

Taking the Asian Handicap price is a much better proposition.

We suspect that now after having totally confused everyone, the majority of gamblers are unlikely to want to bet on a team to win AND to cover the draw, but this is a great example of how you can achieve a better price overall for your chosen selection.

An easier way to look at it is possibly if we look to compare the prices for a straight win bet using a -0.50 handicap.

If you bet a team to win OR take the Asian Handicap -0.50 and your chosen team wins then EITHER of these bets would be winning bets.

Bizarrely although both of these bets are one in the same the prices can vary. It is common to see the straight win bet being offered at 1.90, and yet the Asian Handicap - 0.50 bet being offered at 1.93 with exactly the same bookmaker.

This small difference in price would actually mean an extra £3.00 return from the Asian Handicap -0.50 bet for exactly the same stake of £100.00.

Straight win bet - £100.00 * 1.90 = £190.00 Asian Handicap -0.50 bet - £100.00 * 1.93 = £193.00

Now that doesn’t sound a lot does it, but in the arbitrage world where you may be placing 20 arbs a day it can make a whole heap of difference, like £60.00 difference!

Any arbitrage trading has to be about breaking down an event to achieve the very best prices and you can relate this to your day to day normal gambling too.

Experience says that the more you can break down an event the greater your chances of improving your winning percentage in your favour. It doesn’t mean that you will win more often but when you do you will find your return is improved.

If you fancy Manchester United to draw in their match we can break this bet down even further too and enhance our odds.

You can of course go to the nearest betting shop, or fire up the computer and look around for the best price and you may achieve a price of say 5/2 (3.50 decimal). What if we look a little deeper?

What other way can we cover this match to end in a draw?

You can, of course, cover the correct scores, 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 and by shopping around you may get a price nearer 3/1 (4.00), but you will not have covered the 4-4 or 5-5 score lines. Not many Premiership matches finish with these scores and as such as here we are gambling outright on a draw result the chance may well be worth taking.

But…

If you do want to cover ALL of the other possibilities then take a look at the Half Time / Full Time odds.

You will need to make three bets:

Home Team / Draw – (Home team winning at half time and a draw at full time).

Away Team / Draw – (Away team winning at half time and a draw at full time).

Draw / Draw – Draw at half time and draw at full time.

On that basis as long as the final result is a draw you will win overall. This is another technique often used by arbitrageurs to increase the odds on the draw.

All of these arbitrage techniques lend themselves to regular betting activities, and demonstrate that thinking out of the box can improve your odds for your chosen bet and increasing value.

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