Policy Notes the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn52
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POLICY NOTES THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN52 T URKEY, A NATO MEMBER, sits A TALE OF SIX TRIBES Securing the Middle Euphrates River Valley ANDREW J. TABLER, Editor THE ISLAMIC STATE is now largely defeated militarily, with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces having taken the eastern bank of the Euphrates River and a mosaic of largely Iran- and Russia- supported Assad-regime forces taking areas west of the river. As anti-IS operations wind down and the Trump administration considers its options in eastern Syria, the challenge of how to win over the settled Arab tribes of the Middle Euphrates River Valley remains vital to ensuring that the Islamic State is ultimately defeated and that Iran does not fill the vacuum, thereby setting off a greater Middle East conflict. Photo: Euphrates River, between Raqqa and Deir al-Zour. ©2010 Greg Sixt, all rights reserved. Reprinted with permission. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 ANDREW TABLER, Editor A recent visitor to eastern Syria, who will remain anon- While not reflecting a formal poll of all tribes in the ymous for security reasons, conducted interviews with a MERV, the answers, as well as the interviewer’s impres- number of tribal figures from six of the MERV’s largest sions, indicate that the United States and its allies extended tribal confederations: Walda, Afadla, Sabkha, can win sympathy from the tribes by showing consis- Busaraya, Baggara, and Ougaidat.1 The interviews were tency and committing to stabilization and reconstruc- aimed at determining tribal goals as well as attitudes tion with U.S. allies. The United States also has some toward the IS, the United States, Turkey, the Syrian Kurdish room to capitalize on anti-Iran sentiment among the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its militia, the People’s settled tribes, although the regime continues to hold Defense Units (YPG), and the Assad regime, with its Iran- many cards for enticing tribes away from the U.S.- backed militias and associated forces. supported SDF. THE TRIBES AT A GLANCE WALDA AFADLA The Walda tribe predomi- of fertile lands, among other Following the Walda dis- and Maazellah, 40 km from nates in the western rural factors, had strong effects on placement several decades the city. areas of Raqqa province. the Walda’s social, economic, ago, the Afadla emerged To the northwest: areas Members, numbering about and political status. as the largest tribe in Raqqa from the village of al-Jazira to 150,000, also live in Hasaka The Walda tribe is divided province. According to tribal Kubash (east and west) and and Aleppo provinces. into two branches: sources, some 300,000 Afadla Awja, 40 km from Raqqa city. now live in Raqqa province In this last village, in 1941, In the early 1970s, about • The JAZIRA, whose terri- in the locales surrounding the Afadla and the Bed- 40% of Walda tribespeople tory stretches from the vil- Raqqa city. ouin clan al-Fadan, from the were forced to leave their lage of Sweida in western To the east, where they Anaza confederation, ended home villages and towns Raqqa, to al-Jaber, Ramel, are most concentrated: the their conflict and established when the Syrian govern- and Shams al-Din, a village village of al-Mishlab, about borders. ment built the al-Thawra east of the Tishrin Dam, 5 km from downtown; and To the south: on the south- Dam, the largest in Syria on north of the Euphrates. then from Raqqa Samra to ern banks of the Euphrates, Most al-Maghmurin previ- the Euphrates River. These Tawi Ruman, al-Hamrat, in villages within the al-Kasrat ously lived in these villages. evacuees, known as “al- al-Karameh, al-Hawis, and village districts: Kasra Sheikh Maghmurin” (lit. submerged) • The SHAMIYA, who live Khas Ajeel, the last of which al-Jumaa, Kasra Afnan, Kasra because their lands had been on the southern banks is located on the northern Farajah, and Kasra Muham- flooded by the creation of of the Euphrates, from banks of the Euphrates 72 mad Ali. nearby Lake Assad, were Mansoura, 30 km west km from the city. The tribe’s presence on moved to Kurdish-majority of Raqqa, to Dibsi Faraj, To the northeast: the vil- all sides of the city gives it areas near Qamishli and the Maskanah, al-Khafsa, lages of al-Rihayat and al- political and social influence, border with Turkey. The loss and Manbij. Yarmouk, ranging to Hazima including over other tribes. SABKHA OUGAIDAT Sabkha tribespeople live on Deir al-Zour province, about The Ougaidat is the largest helped forge the borders of the southern banks of the 70 km south of Raqqa on the tribe in Deir al-Zour prov- Syria and Iraq through their Euphrates, in villages from Euphrates. The last location, ince and in all of Syria, as bloody conflicts with the Kasra Muhammad Agha (7 at the 70-km mark, is known well as the strongest tribe al-Khirsan clan, a branch km east of Raqqa) to al-Akirshi, as the “Sabkha line.” in eastern Syria. One tribal of the Bedouin Shammar al-Rahabi, al-Sharida (east and According to a tribal leader, leader estimates the total tribal confederation. west), and then on to al- the Sabkha numbered about number of Ougaidat in The Ougaidat tribe lives Gabli, al-Ghanim Ali, Muqlah 80,000 in 2011, making it the the country at 1.5 million, on both banks of Euphra- (Saghirah and Kabira), al- second largest tribe in eastern with about a third living in tes, spanning an area from Jaber, al-Khamisah, Maadan, Raqqa, after the Afadla. Deir al-Zour province. In Deir al-Zour city up to Abu Sweida, and finally al-Tabni, in the 1940s, the Ougaidat Kamal. They also live in Iraq. 2 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY A TALE OF SIX TRIBES: SECURING THE MIDDLE EUPHRATES RIVER VALLEY BAGGARA BUSARAYA Baggara tribespeople mainly are not available, a large num- Busaraya tribespeople live in Approximately 56 km east live west of Deir al-Zour city, ber of people of Baggara lin- rural western Deir al-Zour of Deir al-Zour, tribe mem- ranging from the northern eage have integrated into Deir province, along the southern bers live in Buqrus, a town banks of the Euphrates to al-Zour city—in fact, some say a banks of the Euphrates, in that boasts a high number of the Raqqa provincial border; full one-third of the city’s resi- the village of Ayyash and the university graduates. Accord- in villages from al-Husseini- dents have roots in the tribe. towns of Kharita and Shme- ing to residents, some 150 yah to Mahamidah, where One prominent Baggara fam- itiyeh, the tribal capital and physicians and 450 engineers the Baggara’s chiefdom fam- ily there is the al-Ayyash. home to the al-Fayyad chief- live there. ily lives; to al-Kasrat, al-Kubar, Other regions where the dom family, 20 km west of Deir Busaraya sources say and Jazra al-Milaj, spanning Baggara live include Hasaka al-Zour city. They also live in about 50,000 tribespeople a distance of some 80 km. province, in an area known the villages of al-Tarif, al-Bouti, live in Raqqa province, tens East of Deir al-Zour, the Bag- as Baggara al-Jabal (Bag- and al-Masrab. About 220,000 of thousands of them in the gara live in smaller numbers gara Mountain); Raqqa (e.g., Busaraya tribespeople are said city and about 10,000 in its in the villages of Meratt, the al-Ojeili and al-Mashhour to live in Raqqa and Hasaka Busaraya district, around the Khusham, and Jadid Bag- families); the city of Aleppo provinces, Deir al-Zour city, al-Hani Mosque and North al- gara. Sources suggest a total and other northern towns; and the surrounding villages. Mansour Street. of approximately 100,000 and Idlib. Baggara live in these areas Some Baggara tribespeople east and west of the city. report their numbers in Syria as Although accurate figures now exceeding one million. ISLAMIC STATE IN RAQQA vs. DEIR AL-ZOUR RAQQA TRIBES No sustained confrontation took place various reasons.The first entailed the con- to Armenian families, with their Christian in Raqqa between the Islamic State and centration of Syria’s oil and gas resources houses of worship, and Muslim Chechen Jabhat al-Nusra, along with the various within the province, making it an obvious and Circassian families. According to one associated militias. Indeed, over a few prize for all anti-Assad groups. tribal figure, IS and JN employed a carrot- days in early 2014, IS defeated JN and The second reason involved the loca- and-stick approach in trying to secure loy- Ahrar al-Sham and kicked them out tion of chiefdom families for the Busaraya, alty, the carrot being shares of oil income, of Raqqa, making the city the de facto Baggara, and Ougaidat tribes in this the stick being force. Islamic State capital. province. Since these tribes also have a For the Islamic State in particular, sei- presence in Aleppo, Raqqa, and Hasaka zure of Deir al-Zour province would allow provinces, control of Deir al-Zour would for a link from its de facto capital, Raqqa, DEIR AL-ZOUR TRIBES grant the winners implicit leverage in to Anbar province in Iraq, where the In contrast, the fighting in Deir al-Zour these other areas. Moreover, the popula- group also held power. No such link was between jihadist groups was bloody and tion of Deir al-Zour is almost exclusively available otherwise.