Monthly Market Outlook June 2021
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Monthly Market Outlook June 2021 The views expressed in this presentation are through the period ending 07-June-21 and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Content Page Numbers Global Economy 4 Indian Economy 13 Equity Markets 30 Valuation 38 SIP Has Performed Well 43 Equity Investment Opportunity 47 Should We Invest In Gold ? 52 Interesting Facts About Crypto 56 Active V/S Passive Funds in Alpha Generation 60 Debt Market Outlook 65 Debt Investment Opportunity 75 Distributor Engagement 82 Annexure 87 Disclaimers & Disclosures 91 2 Equity Market Outlook June 2021 Global Economy 4 Debt At All Time High And Interest Burden At All Time Low Government Debt Government Interest Payments 5 Source: Fitch Ratings Fiscal And Monetary Stimulus Has Given Confidence To Businesses Source: The Conference Board, The Business Council, NBER 6 Stimulus Has Pushed Profit Margins To All Time High Levels Source: Bloomberg 7 Big Is Becoming Bigger Median profit margin for top 50 firms has rocketed higher Source: Bloomberg 8 Global Market Cap To GDP Ratio Rises To 131% Source: Bloomberg 9 High Corporate Issuances Reflects Investors Bullishness Source: Goldman Sachs, As of 31st March 2021 10 Commodities Are In Short Supply Shortage of commodities has pushed backwardation to nearly 15-year high Source: Bloomberg, CME, ICE, LME Note: Chart uses current BCOM constituents and weightings. Calculation uses current spot futures price versus the forward 1 year futures price. Some futures prices were estimated in this calculation. 11 U.S. Core Inflation Jumps U.S. core and headline inflation both jumped more than forecast in April Source: Bureau Of Labour Statistics 12 lndian Economy 13 Headlines In May 21 Source: zeenews.com Source: Business Standard Source: Times of India Indian railways FY21 freight loading at record 1.23b tons Source: economic times 14 Headlines In May 21 Source: thehindu.com India’s Manufacturing PMI Drops to 10-Month Low in May Source: BloombergQuint.com Source: livemint.com 15 Daily New Cases In India Falling Sharply Source: CSSE at JHU 16 India Chose 'Jaan' Over 'Jahaan' During Second Wave Source: India Today, Google Mobility Report 17 Indicators Show Better Resilience Than Last Years Lockdown 18 Business Resumption Index Appears To Be Bottoming Out After a ~40pp fall from its peak, the NIBRI picked up over the last week of May Note: NIBRI comprises of Google mobility indices, driving mobility from Apple, power demand and the labour force participation rate. We consider 23 February 2020 as the base for all the series. The latest readings of NIBRI are provisional estimates. Source: Google, Apple, CMIE, Bloomberg and Nomura Global Economics. 19 E-way Bills Generation Contracts 35% MoM Source: Axis Capital CEIC, GSTN 20 Unemployment Is Rising Again CMIE Series of Unemployment: Unemployment Rate : 30 day moving Unemployment Rate unemployment rate (UER) (>=15) average (%) 02 June 2021* Source: CMIE.com 21 Pandemic Sets Back Growth of India’s Middle Class Source: FT, Pew Research Center 22 India Is Unlocking Source: India Today 23 Is Rural India Impacted By Wide Spread Of Covid 19 Deposits Loans YoY (%) Growth FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21 Rural 15.5% 6.9% 11.5% 14.5% Semi Urban 12.3% 9.3% 8.4% 14.3% Urban 10.5% 11.5% 8.8% 9.4% Metropolitan 6.9% 14.9% 4.8% 1.7% Total 9.5% 12.3% 6.4% 5.6% Source: Bloomberg 24 Will We See Pent up Demand Or Subdued Consumer Sentiment Payroll Creation in India in Lakh FY19 FY20 FY21 Net New EPF Subscribers 112.5 94.7 94.5 of which, Formalisation 12.2 10.5 9.3 EPFO Second Job 10.6 23.3 41.2 First Job 89.7 60.8 44.0 NPS Total New Subscribers 7.5 7.6 5.8 Total Payroll (EPFO + NPS) 120.0 102.3 100.4 Source: EPFO 25 MSME Sector In Precarious Position Airlines & Hotels are Likely to Bear the Brunt of the Lockdowns to Contain the 2nd Wave of Covid-19 Source: CRISIL 26 Vaccination Will Normalize Economic Activity India: • Vaccinated half New Zealand every day. • Tested people equal to population of USA • Fed people equal to population of Europe during lockdown • Treated and cured people equal to population of Australia 27 Source: MyGov, Includes 31.81 lakhs administered to Armed Forces, Data uptil 29th May 2021 Vaccination Will Normalize Economic Activity Source: BBC.com, Indian Government 28 Will The 3rd Wave Be Lower Than 2nd Wave 2 3 1 Source: CDC 29 Equity Markets 30 Performance Across Market Cap Performance as on 31st May 2021 Sectoral Performance CY21 YTD (%) 150 59% 132 125 100 94 75 31% 63 24% 50 18% 14% 14% 11% 12% 10% 10% 9% 25 8% 7% 13 14 14 12 12 7% 11 11 8 10 7 7 6 3% 0 Nifty-50 Nifty Midcap 100 NSE SmallCap 100 Auto Bank FMCG Realty Media Energy Metals Pharma Secvices NIFTY 50 1m returns 1y returns 3 yr CAGR 5 yr CAGR 10 yr CAGR Financials IT Services Midcap 100 Smallcap 100 Private Banks Source: Bloomberg, Axis Capital. As on 31st May 2021. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. 31 Sare Jahan Se Accha Hindustan Hamara 12 months FPI flow and (Jun’20 to May’21) 12 MONTHS FPI FLO W (June'20 to May'21) (USD bn) India 34.8 Brazil 14.5 (1.6) Indonesia (2.9) Philippines (3.4) Malaysia (4.4) Thailand (5.6) South Africa (5.6) Taiwan (15.5) South Korea Source: Axis Capital 32 Q4FY21 Results Are Largely In-line Midcaps have much higher beats than misses Source: Capitaline, Bloomberg, I-Sec research 33 Corporate Profitability Improving 34 NIFTY Has Low Correlation With Crude Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, Deustche Bank AG, Data as on April 2021 35 Metal Index Excess Returns Is One Of The Highest Excess returns(rolling 252 days) of Metal index over Sensex Excess returns(rolling 252 days) of Metal index over Sensex Source: Bloomberg 36 Sensex EPS is Near Flat FY14 Through FY20 Source: Motilal Oswal 37 Valuation Wise – Neutral Weight Momentum Wise – Neutral Weight Every Correction Is An Opportunity To Increase Allocation To Equity Neutral weight doesn't mean selling equity. It means profit booking if any on excess/overweight position. 38 Market Cap-To-GDP Ratio –Above Long Term Average But Below Global Average Update World Market Cap to GDP Ratio is 131% Average of 76% for the period 106 104 95 88 81 83 79 79 71 64 66 69 56 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Source: Motilal Oswal and Internal Analysis 39 ValuationsAreAtThe Higher EndFairValueOf Source: Source: 13 18 23 28 8 May-06 Motilal Oswal Motilal May-07 May-08 NIFTY P/E (x)P/ENIFTY May-09 May-10 17.9x Average: May-11 May-12 May-13 - 1 Year ForwardYear1 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 20.3 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.5 May-06 May-07 NIFTY P/B (x)P/BNIFTY May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 2.6x Average: May-12 - 1 Year1 May-13 May-14 Forward May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 40 May-20 May-21 3.0 Earnings Are Increasing Reported PAT for NSE 500 Quarter Annualised PAT on Dec 20 Rs in Crore Dec 19 1,22,235 Mar 20 53,406 June 20 32,400 Sept 20 1,76,786 7,07,144 Dec 20 2,09,795* 8,39,180 Mar 21 ( 375 Companies) 1,66,344 TTM ( As on Dec 20) 4,72,387 Market Cap (31/05/21) 20,91,93,25 PE Ratio ( PAT TTM Dec 20) 44.3 24.9 * Highest Ever Quarterly Profit by India Inc. Source: ICICI-Sec & Bloomberg 41 Recommendation : Neutral Weight To Equities Marginally OW Small and Midcap Marginally UW Large cap Neutral Weight Equity 42 SIP Has Performed Well 43 Discipline Pays Off In SIP Kotak Small Cap Fund May-19 Mar-20 May-21 10 Year 14.33 6.04 21.13 7 Year 14.06 1.37 21.06 5 Year 7.95 -8.15 25.15 3 Year 2.59 -20.13 42.79 1 Year 4.71 -44.41 119.85 Benchmark May-19 Mar-20 May-21 10 Year 5.95 -3.58 13.82 7 Year 6.22 -9.62 13.28 5 Year -0.85 -20.45 16.12 3 Year -7.87 -36.40 31.86 1 Year -6.79 -62.60 109.78 Source: MFi Explorer. Returns are for regular plan. Nifty SmallCap 100 TRI is the benchmark for Kotak Small Cap Fund Disclaimer: SIP is an optional feature offered by Kotak Mutual Fund. This feature does not in any way give assurance of the performance of any of the Funds of Kotak Mutual. Past performance may or may not be sustained in the future. The returns are calculated by XIRR approach assuming investment of Rs. 10,000/- on the 1st working day of every month. XIRR helps in calculating return on investments given an initial and final value and a series of cash inflows and outflows and taking the time of investment into consideration.