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Boost Your Sip with the Kotak Sip Booster Facility

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Boost Your Sip with the Kotak Sip Booster Facility FUND FACT July 31, 2015 SHEET SIP BOOST YOUR SIP WITH THE KOTAK SIP BOOSTER FACILITY Start your SIP today with the amount you want. Enjoy the flexibility to increase it later Past Performance of the Sponcer/AMC/FundSponcer/AMC/FuFund does not indicate the schemes futurefutuuture Performance. Risk Factor on page 57 EXPERT SPEAK Mr. Nilesh Shah July 31, 2015 Dear Friends, We think there is a structural as well as a cyclical upswing in the Indian economy. And not withstanding the current spate of slightly below expectation results, the outlook continues to improve. For one, the low base effect of 2014 will make the YoY performance of December, 2015 quarter look better. The second advantage which is happening to Indian economy is a reasonably good distribution of monsoon against the expectation of a below normal. The distribution has been good and hopefully this will give boost to the agriculture. The third important cyclical swing which is coming in is that the public sector bank employees, and later the Central and state government employees, will get revision of their salaries. This can really spur the consumption and combination of all these things will provide cyclical recovery to Indian economy and then hopefully the government efforts on the structural side will also start coming into play. The real acceleration will come towards January-March, 2016 quarter. The combination of interest rate transmission, interest rate cuts, festival season and the lower base effect will create support in terms of acceleration somewhere towards December, 2015 to March, 2016 quarter. But what is more important is that we also need structural support. This is where the current session of parliament in terms of passage of Goods and Services Tax(GST) Bill, Land Acquisition Bill, in a format which can support industrial development, come in. From the investors stand point, it is advisable that they begin accumulating stake in the Indian equities market before they get surprised by the size of the potential demand waiting to converge into the indian market. The way we see it, there is a large wave of investment coming from domestic retail investors into the financial market. Let us get a perspective here. The total holding of retail investors in equity market is about 8 percent of BSE 200 companies as on March 2015, roughly that's Rs 800,000 crore. This includes some of the shares which are in physical segment, this includes some of the shares which are with high net worth individual investors. Now against that what will be the buying by domestic retail investors and institutional investors be over next five years? Mutual funds last year bought more than Rs 65,000 crore. In first three months they have bought more than Rs 25,000 crore. So it is fair to assume that we will bring in Rs 350,000 crore over next five years in Indian equity market courtesy the support of retail investors. LIC has been buying Rs 50,000 crore a year. It will be fair to assume that they will bring Rs 250,000 crore into equity market over next five years. The pension funds have been allowed to investment between 5 and 15 percent and that's Rs 200,000 crore over the years. Private insurance companies and banks may bring around Rs 100,000 crore into equity market in the time ahead. So, there is Rs 900,000 crore of demand from domestic, retail and institutional investors against the total holding of 800,000 crore from the retail investors who have been selling their equity forever. A regular and consistent SIP by the investor is well advised. In conclusion, Indian markets need a wide ranging and deeply engaged investor base and which will happen. Moreover, it is important that the Indian saver(& pensioner) makes more gains from Indian markets than the offshore saver (& pensioner). In both circumstances the success and growth of Indian mutual funds and its distributors is a must. Happy Investing and Regards, Nilesh Shah Managing Director 1 EQUITY VIEW INDIA: Strong macro; Improvement in micro trends taking time Indian equity markets remained largely resilient amidst uncertainty in the global markets especially China. The large cap CNX Nifty rose 1.24% during the month while the CNX Midcap rose 4.33% in INR terms. With the German Parliament approving the Greek bailout package, concerns have shifted towards the potential impact of a China stock market meltdown and China slowdown on emerging markets and global growth. The recent policy statement by the US Federal Reserve increases the possibility of a September hike in Fed rates. The statement highlights that the labor market continued to improve with solid job growth and also stated that the economy was expanding moderately though capital spending and exports stayed soft. The Fed statement suggests that hike in rates would follow some further improvement in the labor market and that inflation will move towards 2% over the medium term. India: Strong macro but weak micro; mixed trends in earnings season Back home, India is clearly in a situation whereby macro parameters have improved and are on a strong footing on the back of the improvement in the Current Account Deficit (aided by lower oil, gold and commodity prices), higher forex reserves and steady inflation. On the micro front, the picture appears quite different. With the June'15 quarter result season underway, it is apparent that corporate earnings are under pressure. So far, the sectors that have seen beats to estimates are materials and consumer discretionary. Trends in the IT sector have been mixed with large cap IT services companies exhibiting resilience in terms of revenue growth whereas mid cap IT services companies have been plagued by client specific issues which have hampered growth. Public sector banks continue to report muted core operating performance trends and there is no visible sign of improvement in asset quality. Private sector banks however, have reported numbers in line with estimates reflective of market share gains and better retail asset quality trends. The NIFTY is trading at 18.3xFY16E EPS and at 15.5-xFY17E EPS (free float basis). China: Concerns of a slowing economy and an asset bubble re-emerge There has been a re-emergence of concerns over China. The main concerns center around (a) Investment bubble: China's investment share of GDP is already higher than it ever was in Japan and Korea. (b) Real estate bubble: Moody's claim that real estate is around 23% of GDP,(directly and indirectly) (c) China's private sector debt to GDP stands at 196% (40% higher than the trend rate). A meaningful slowdown in China can influence global growth and investor sentiment to emerging markets. However, over time, we expect India, to be a major beneficiary of asset re-allocation within emerging markets. Parliament session: Government hoping to clear an amended GST Bill The Indian Parliament's monsoon session started on July 20th (till August 13th). One of the key bills pending in the Parliament is the GST (Goods and Service Tax) bill. The Government in the Union Budget had outlined April 2016 as the timeline for its implementation. Thus, the passage of the bill in the current session of the Parliament is imperative. The passage of the bill requires 2/3rd majority in the Parliament and has to be ratified by half the states. The Select Committee on GST has submitted its report to Rajya Sabha and its recommendations are as follows: GST rate should be within 14-20% range; In addition it has also recommended 2 changes - a) 1% additional tax over GST on interstate supply of goods; and b) reduction in compensation to states in 4th and 5th years. Monsoons: Rainfall deficit reduces; next two weeks key While the month of July 2015 got off to a bad start in terms of rainfall, as per the latest data, rainfall until July 30, 2015 has been 4% below Long Period Average (LPA). However, on a spatial basis (distribution of rainfall across states), except for Northwest India, which is also largely irrigated (wherein rainfall was 12% above normal), many other regions viz. Central India, South Peninsula and Northeast India continued to receive near or below-normal rainfall during the period June 1 to July 29, 2015. In this regard, the next two weeks are critical. If rains recover, then the kharif (summer) food grain production could still grow by 3% YoY. At this point we are forecasting real GDP growth in FY16 on a Gross Value (GVA) added basis to be at 7.6% with growth in agriculture at 2% (in comparison to growth of 0.2% in FY15). However, downside risks to growth forecast stems from rains faltering over the next two weeks, particularly in the deficient states of Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Inflation risks remain low as of now given that the Government has been taking steps to control food related inflation and that the hikes in the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) have been much lower in the last 2 years. RBI policy: Rates stay on hold; Possibility exists of one more rate cut in FY16 RBI left key policy rates unchanged in their August 4, 2015 meeting. The Repo Rate therefore remains at 7.25% and the Reverse Repo Rate at 6.25%. RBI, while indicating that their policy actions so far have been front loaded in nature, also outlined the key factors that would determine the course of future policy action. These factors include i) a greater transmission by banks of the RBI's rate cuts (ii) developments in food prices and the effects of the monsoon on food production (iii) policy efforts to unclog the supply side constraints (iv) signs of normalization of US monetary policy.
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