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Hydrometric Data Review for 3 Sites Upstream of Okotoks, Alberta

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Hydrometric Data Review for 3 Sites Upstream of Okotoks, Alberta Prepared for AMEC Foster Wheeler Hydrometric Data Review for 3 Sites Upstream of Okotoks, Alberta 05BL012 – Sheep River at Okotoks 05BL013 – Three Point Creek at Millarville 05BL014 – Sheep River at Black Diamond Greg MacCulloch P.Eng. 6/29/2015 Acknowledgements All data source for this review was provided by Environment Canada either through their publicly available HYDAT website (https://ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/default.asp?lang=En&n=894E91BE-1), the EC Data Explorer desktop application, or from personal correspondence with staff at the Water Survey of Canada, Alberta District Office in Calgary, Alberta. The author would, in particular, like to express his gratitude to Mr. Dennis Lazowski, Hydrological Services Supervisor, WSC-Alberta for his invaluable help and generous efforts in providing the data and associated information with speed and accuracy. i Hydrometric Data Review for 3 Sites Upstream of Okotoks, Alberta 1 Introduction Subsequent to significant flooding that occurred in Southern Alberta during the month of June, 2013, a detailed look at the basic data used to compute peak flow risk is warranted. This report reviews the data provided by the National Hydrometric Program, a cost-shared program by the governments of Canada and the Provinces. It should be noted that throughout this review the terms “flowrate” and “discharge” are considered synonyms and are used interchangeably. Factors impacting the quality of the hydrometric record used in the risk assessment include: Proximity to the point of interest Length of record Range of observation Measurement frequency Rating stability Hydrograph Consistency: compare annual peak flows: Maximum Instantaneous, Maximum Daily, Event Volumes and other sites. The preferred variable for assessing flood risk is annual maximum instantaneous peak flowrate. It is important to understand that this fundamental piece of information relied upon to derive flood risk is also a derivation, not a measurement. In general hydrometric practice, a series of direct discharge measurements are used to establish a rating curve with volumetric discharge being the dependent variable and river stage being the independent variable. Stage is the value that is commonly measured on a more or less continuous basis; except in very rare instances where stage observations are augmented by near real-time velocity data, time varying stage data is the only parameter used to derive the corresponding streamflow rates. The nature of streams that rise on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rockies is such that annual peak flows are momentary in duration and often significantly larger in magnitude than the corresponding maximum daily mean flowrate, which is again often significantly larger in magnitude than the average flow for the year. Consequently, determining peak values is a challenge at best as the observational experience for such events is quite low. This is compounded further for extreme events such as those that occurred in the area in the early 1900s and again most recently in 1995, 2005, and 2013. Such extreme events create a demand for direct field observation over a large geographic area during difficult conditions. To further complicate the work the floods often cause the failure or destruction of gauging equipment at a time when accurate results are most in demand. The transitory nature of flood peaks results in an inability to revisit events to confirm results or check potential errors. 1 This review looks at the published hydrometric record for 3 sites at and upstream of the Town of Okotoks in the context of data suitability for high flow risk assessment. It includes a look at the basic data used for the derivation of stream flow provided by the Water Survey of Canada, Alberta District Office. 2 05BL012 – Sheep River near Okotoks 2.1.1 Proximity to point of interest: As noted in the WSC station description for this site: This station is located in the town of Okotoks. From the intersection of Hwy # 2A and Riverside Drive West, travel East for 0.7 km. The gauge is on the right side of the road, just past the intersection of Centre Ave and Riverside Drive West (also known as South Railway St). The gauge monitors flows in the largest stream to pass through the Town of Okotoks, Alberta. Any consideration of activity that might impact or be impacted by the Sheep River in the vicinity of the town should consider data from this site. Approximately 1/3 of the contributing drainage area to this point is captured at the gauging location on Threepoint Creek near Millarville, and another 1/3 is observed at the site on the Sheep River at Black Diamond. 2.1.2 Length of record Gauging has been sporadic at this site which was first established in 1908. For the 8 year period from 1908 to 1915 manual observations of stage were made during the open water season by a local observer, typically once per day (although the published record suggests less frequently as many concurrent days have the same value). From 1916 to 1920 manual observations continued on a year round basis. The operation of the gauge was discontinued for the first time after 1920. The gauge was re-established in 1965 and operated on a continuous basis with an automatic recording device until November 30, 1968. Continuous gauging was re-established once again in 2006 and the gauge continues to operate at the time of this review (2015); however, data computations are behind the standard and hydrometric results are only available up to December 31, 2012. Thus, peaks flows for the recent year of concern are not yet available, even on a tentative basis. Reference to nearby gauges (Bow at Calgary, Three Point Creek near Millarville, and Sheep River at Black Diamond) indicate some significant gaps exist in the record that will impact risk analysis if the record is not extended to consider these historic events. Notable peaks flows that are missing from the record for Sheep River at Okotoks include the years: 1915, 1916, 1923, 1929, 1970, 1990, 1995, and 2005. The last is a significant gap as peak flows for 2005 may have exceeded 2013 flows. It should be noted that for the only site in this review with data for 2013, the peak was lower than the peak for 2005. 2 Some significant years of low flow are missing from the record. Comparison with the same nearby sites suggests that significant years of low flow include: 1910, 1914, 1920, 1941, 1966, and the period from the late 1970s to the mid-1980s. Any analysis of risk should consider these gaps and efforts should be made to understand how the record at this site might relate to nearby sites with more data available. 2.1.3 Range of observation: Notwithstanding the relatively short period of record, stream gaugers were successful in making a direct discharge measurement of 452 m3/s on May 27, 2011. This is close to the maximum daily peak flow of 524 m3/s measured July 16, 1915, and exceeds the highest reported daily flow of 419E m3/s May 27, 2011, (note that this is an estimated value [see table7.1.1]). In 1915 the gauge was operated manually, so there was no way to determine the value or time of the instantaneous peak. Also, an instantaneous peak for the year 2011 is not part of the hydrometric record; speculating, this was likely due to do with a gauge failure at the time of peak flow. Although a mean daily value was estimated it was likely prudent for the Water Survey of Canada technologist to be conservative and not estimate the peak. Available record indicates that annual instantaneous peaks discharge for high flow events is in the order of a factor of 1.5 times the maximum daily mean for the year. [See 7.1.11] This is consistent with the other two sites in the review. Considering that the sum of the maximum daily flow during the 2005 high water event for Three Point Creek at Millarville[see 8.1.58], and Sheep River at Black Diamond [see 9.1.55], are close to the peak value observed in 1915 it is fair to say that the hydrometric record of observations support the results at this site. The range of direct discharge measurement can be considered good for this site, although the record length is quite short and many important flows are absent from the record due to choices made by the Hydrometric Network Administrators regarding network extent. 2.1.4 Measurement frequency Direct discharge measurements are costly; however, they are the best way to be assured of the validity of the rating curve. A review of the station visits for this site (see7.1.3] shows that apart for the month of December, the stream gauge is visited on a monthly basis and during high conditions 2 to 4 times a month. This is well within the standard for hydrometric operations. 2.1.5 Rating stability Streams in this area typically run through glaciated material making the stream beds prone to aggradation and degradation of the loosely packed sands, gravels, and cobble. The rating curve shown [see 7.1.4] includes all recent measurements; however the points subsequent to May 10, 2007 have been adjusted by adding 2.802 m to the gauge height to correspond to historic datum. Corrections such as this are common; the stage is generally referenced to an arbitrary datum plane and not linked to other references for elevation such as the Geodetic Survey of Canada. 3 How well individual measurements are fit to the rating curve are shown by the chart at 7.1.5 (showing the departure of the measurement from the curve by stage), and the chart at 7.1.6 (showing the same departures plotted by discharge).
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