Ipsos MORI Political Monitor©

Ipsos MORI November 2019 Political Monitor Topline Results 22nd November 2019 Fieldwork: 15th- 19th November 2019

Technical Details Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,228 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 15th-19th November 2019. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party and in the headline figures, are filtered as discussed below. Data are based on all adults unless otherwise stated

Voting Intention Voting intention polls between elections are a measurement of how a representative sample of the public think they would vote at a given point in time. Voting intentions should be read in conjunction with other political indicators. Voting intentions: headline indicator Our headline indicator takes into account past voting behaviour (do people always or usually vote in general elections, or say it depends) as well as stated likelihood to vote in an upcoming election (those who say they are at least 9 out of 10 certain to vote). We continually review our methods, and may make further refinements to our methodology in the future. As previously, please note that this measure is not based on the assumption that this is the group who will vote at the next general election, as this population is not accurately identifiable at this stage of a parliament. Rather, it includes only those voters whose past behaviour and frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor©

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1a

Q1b Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 9-10 certain to vote and Q3-6 Q1a/b always/usually/depends vote in General November October Elections, registered to vote and answers % % reallocated to ensure parties standing in constituency (1,013)* Conservative 44 41

Labour 28 24

Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16 20

Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru 5 5

Green Party 3 3 The Party 3 7 Other 1 *

Conservative lead (+%) +16 +17

Would not vote * *

Undecided 5 4

Refused 3 1

* After being asked the regular voting intention questions, participants were then asked: And if there was no [INSERT PARTY NAME] candidate in your constituency, how would you vote? In constituencies where a participant’s first preference party were not standing a candidate, their answers have been reallocated to their second party preference. Before this reallocation headline figures read: Conservatives 43%, Labour 27%, Liberal Democrats 16%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 5%, Green Party 3%, Brexit Party 4%. Voting intentions: all naming a party The voting intention figures based on all those giving a voting intention is the measure with the longest pedigree; our regular trends on this basis go back to the 1970s. When turnouts were much higher than is usual today, this offered a good approximation to actual voting behaviour; in more recent years however, there have been differing turnout levels among the supporters of the various parties. Again, answers here have been reallocated, so where a participant’s first preference party were not standing a candidate in their constituency, their answers have been reallocated to their second party preference. * Q1a How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1a Q1b Which party are you most inclined to support? % Conservative 43 Labour 29 Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16 Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru 5 Green Party 3 The Brexit Party 3 Other 1 +14 Conservative lead (+%)

Would not vote 34 Undecided 7 Refused 2

* Before reallocation the voting intention for all naming a party read: Conservatives 42%, Labour 29%, Liberal Democrats 16%, SNP/Plaid Cymru 5%, Green Party 3%, the Brexit Party 4%. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor©

Certainty of voting

Q2 And how likely would you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? % 10 – absolutely certain to vote 76 9 5 8 4 7 3 6 1 5 5 4 1 3 2 2 1 1 – absolutely certain not to vote 4 Don’t know *

Voting decisions

Q7 Have you definitely decided to vote for … or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?

Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know % % % All giving a voting intention (1,081) November 2019 59 40 * June 7 2017 80 19 1 June 1 2017 78 20 2 May 2017 67 32 1 April 2017 63 36 1 Conservative supporters (459) November 2019 71 28 * June 7 2017 (413) 86 13 1 June 1 2017 (267) 75 23 2 May 2017 (370) 77 22 1 April 2017 (401) 78 21 * Labour supporters (270) November 2019 54 46 - June 7 2017 (473) 80 19 1 June 1 2017 (286) 76 21 3 May 2017 (323) 57 42 1 April 2017 (219) 56 43 1 Lib Dem supporters (203) November 2019 40 60 * June 7 2017 (106) 65 33 2 June 1 2017 (64) 46 48 6 May 2017 (93) 51 44 4 April 2017 (129) 40 60 0

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Q7b If you do change your mind about voting for this party, which party would you vote for instead? Base: All those who may change their mind in Q9 (396)

May May June 1 June 7 Nov 2015 2017 2017 2017 2019

% % % % %

Conservative 14 24 22 16 10 Labour 20 12 23 20 14 Lib Dem 17 20 20 18 19 Green 10 10 6 5 12 The Brexit Party - - - - 8 UKIP 14 7 6 9 3 Other * * 2 7 2

None/would not vote 3 1 5 3 5 Don’t know/refused 22 23 14 22 26

Q8 You said you would vote for … /are inclined to support …. Which of the following statements comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote for …?

May May Nov 2015 2017 2019 % % % It is the party that most represents your views 85 75 70 The party you support has little chance of winning in this constituency so you vote for the 10 11 14 [party] to try and keep another party out Other 4 11 12 No opinion 2 3 3

Among Among Among Lib Conservative Labour Dem voters voters supporters % % % Base 459 270 203 It is the party that most represents your 70 76 62 The party you support has little chanceviews of winning in this constituency so you vote for 11 14 23 the [party] to try and keep another party out Other 15 9 10 No opinion 3 1 4

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Q9 How important is it to you personally who wins the next general election?

November May April April 2019 2017 2015 2010 % % % %

Very important 64 53 44 39 Fairly important 23 32 40 39 Not very important 8 10 11 13 Not at all important 4 4 2 5 No opinion 1 1 3 3 Very/fairly important 87 85 84 78 Not very/at all 12 14 13 18 important Q 10 I want you to think about what it is that most attracted you to … party. Some people are attracted mainly by the policies of the party, some by the leaders of the party and some because they identify with the party as a whole. If you had a total of ten points to allocate according to how important each of these was to you, how many points would you allocate to the leaders of the party you intend voting for, how many to its policies, and how many to the party as a whole? Please bear in mind that the total of all your points should add up to ten.

Parties Policies Leaders % % % All giving a voting intention (1,076) November 2019 mean 2.7 4.6 2.7 April 2017 mean 3 3.7 3.1 April 2015 mean 3 4.3 2.6 Conservative party supporters (459) November 2019 mean 2.6 4.1 3.3 April 2017 mean 2.8 3.4 3.8 April 2015 mean 2.6 4.5 2.8 Labour party supporters (270) November 2019 mean 2.9 5.0 2.2 April 2017 mean 3.1 4.0 2.4 April 2015 mean 3.4 4.3 2.3 Lib Dem supporters (203) November 2019 mean 2.3 5.5 2.2 April 2017 mean 3.3 4.7 1.9 April 2015 mean 3.2 4.2 2.6

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Issues

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? * UNPROMPTED

March April April Nov 2015 2015 2017 2019 % % % Europe / EU / Brexit 8 7 42 63 Healthcare/NHS/hospitals 38 47 31 41 Education/schools 25 24 21 21 Taxation 10 16 14 11 Managing the economy/economic 31 35 18 9 situation Asylum and immigration 25 19 17 7 Crime and anti-social 5 4 4 7 behaviour/law and order Don’t know 10 9 10 7

*Showing only answers above 7%; see computer tables for full results

Parties/Leaders

Q12 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister, the Conservative’s Boris Johnson, or Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn?

November Sept July June 2019 2019 2019 2019 % % % % Boris Johnson 49 50 52 51 Jeremy Corbyn 30 29 27 33 Neither 14 16 14 11 No difference 1 * 1 1 Other 2 1 * * Don’t know 5 3 6 4

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Q13 I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… a) the Labour Party b) the Conservative Party c) The Liberal Democrats

Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Con Con Con Con Con (April (Sept (Oct (Nov (Nov (April (Sept (Oct (Nov (Nov 2015) 2015) 2016) 2017) 2019) 2015) 2015) 2016) 2017) 2019)

% % % % % % % % % % Keeps its promises 24 26 23 25 26 23 30 26 22 25 Understands the 52 51 41 54 47 45 48 48 40 46 problems facing Britain Has a good team of 28 27 21 31 22 44 49 47 27 37 leaders Will promise 63 60 57 64 68 63 68 65 63 70 anything to win votes Divided 43 75 82 62 75 43 38 52 73 62 Extreme 14 36 38 37 50 23 29 27 28 33 Looks after the 43 43 33 45 39 33 37 38 32 36 interests of people like me Fit to govern 40 35 26 38 29 50 56 53 43 46 Out of date 36 55 61 47 51 44 48 45 58 44 Different to the 39 62 59 64 59 42 62 53 55 55 other parties Concerned about 61 56 66 59 32 37 28 34 people in real need in Britain None of these 2 1 1 1 2 3 * 1 1 1 Don’t know 4 2 2 1 2 4 2 3 2 2

Lib Lib Lib Lib Dems Dems Dems Dems (April (Sept (Oct (Nov 2015) 2015) 2016) 2019) % % % % Keeps its promises 17 19 18 18 Understands the problems facing Britain 44 46 34 45 Has a good team of leaders 29 16 15 24 Will promise anything to win votes 57 59 55 57 Divided 43 50 35 28 Extreme 10 12 9 23 Looks after the interests of people like me 38 33 29 36 Fit to govern 23 17 18 26 Out of date 33 53 46 36 Different to the other parties 40 55 45 56 Concerned about people in real need in N/A 55 42 48 Britain None of these 3 2 4 3 Don’t know 7 6 12 6 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor©

Q14 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Boris Johnson, and the Conservative Party?

September September September September November 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (David (Theresa (Theresa (Theresa (Boris Cameron) May) May) May) Johnson) % % % % %

I like Boris Johnson and I like the 24 30 Conservative Party 31 32 25 I like Boris Johnson but I do not like 13 28 13 15 14 the Conservative Party I do not like Boris Johnson but I like 10 6 13 14 12 the Conservative Party I do not like Boris Johnson and I do 42 27 43 43 42 not like the Conservative Party Don’t know 4 7 5 5 2 Like Boris Johnson 44 60 38 39 44 Like the Conservative Party 41 38 38 38 42 Do not like Boris Johnson 52 33 56 57 54 Do not like the Conservative party 55 55 56 58 56

Q15 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour Party, and the Labour Party?

September September September September November 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

% % % % % I like Jeremy Corbyn and I like the 23 23 33 25 20 Labour Party I like Jeremy Corbyn but I do not like 14 14 13 7 3 the Labour Party I do not like Jeremy Corbyn but I like 17 23 21 32 29 the Labour Party I do not like Jeremy Corbyn and I do 38 31 27 32 44 not like the Labour Party Don’t know 9 8 5 5 4 Like Jeremy Corbyn 37 37 46 32 23 Like the Labour Party 40 46 54 57 49 Do not like Jeremy Corbyn 55 54 48 64 73 Do not like the Labour Party 52 45 40 39 47

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Q16 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of , leader of the Liberal Democrat Party, and the Liberal Democrats?

September September November 2015 2016 2019 (Tim Farron) (Tim Farron) (Jo Swinson) % % %

I like Jo Swinson and I like Liberal % 15 15 23 Democrats I like Jo Swinson but I do not like 9 8 11 Liberal Democrats I do not like Jo Swinson but I like 13 13 11 the Liberal Democrats I do not like Jo Swinson and I do 31 33 41 not like the Liberal Democrats Don’t know 31 31 13 Like Jo Swinson 24 23 34 Like the Liberal Democrats 28 28 34 Do not like Jo 44 46 52 Swinson Do not like the Liberal 40 41 52 Democrats

Q17 Which of these statements comes closest to your views of , leader of the Brexit Party, and the Brexit Party?

September March November 2014 2015 2019 (UKIP) (UKIP) % % % I like Nigel Farage and I like the Brexit 21 18 18 Party I like Nigel Farage but I do not like the 11 12 9 Brexit Party I do not like Nigel Farage but I like the 8 7 8 Brexit Party I do not like Nigel Farage and I do not 52 52 59 like the Brexit Party Don’t Know 9 10 6 Like Nigel Farage 32 30 27 Like the Brexit Party 29 25 26 Do not like Nigel Farage 60 59 67 Do not like the Brexit Party 63 64 68

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Q18 To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

(a) Labour is ready to form the next government

Strongly Tend to Neither Tend to Strongly Don’t Agree Disagree agree agree agree nor disagree disagree know disagree

% % % % % % % % Nov ‘19 12 20 8 13 46 1 32 59 Sep ‘19 12 15 9 16 46 2 27 62 May ‘17 12 18 6 17 43 4 30 60 May ‘16 13 14 5 22 41 6 27 63 Feb ‘15 11 22 12 19 33 3 33 52 Nov ‘14 7 16 12 26 35 4 23 61 June ‘14 12 23 9 21 31 4 35 52 Apr ‘13 10 19 8 23 35 6 29 58 May ‘11 12 19 7 24 33 5 31 57 Apr ‘97 55 33 Jan ‘96 56 33 Dec ‘94 66 25

(b) Jeremy Corbyn is ready to be Prime Minister?

Strongly Tend to Neither Tend to Strongly Don’t Agree Disagree agree agree agree nor disagree disagree know disagree

% % % % % % % % Jeremy Nov ‘19 11 13 8 12 53 2 24 65 Corbyn Sept ‘19 12 15 9 11 52 1 27 63 May ‘17 14 17 4 14 46 5 31 60 May ‘16 10 12 5 19 46 7 22 65 Ed Miliband Feb ‘15 8 13 11 20 43 4 21 63 June ‘14 7 15 9 22 43 4 22 65 Apr ‘13 8 16 6 24 42 5 24 66 May ‘11 3 14 7 32 37 7 17 69 Tony Blair Apr ‘97 13 53 34

Q19 Thinking about the next general election, do you think it will be a good thing or a bad thing for the country if no party achieves an overall majority?

January December November 2014 2014 2019 5 % % Good 26 28 20 Bad 65 65 72 Don’t know 9 7 8