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The Informal Cross Border Trade Survey Report 2015

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The Informal Cross Border Trade Survey Report 2015 THE INFORMAL CROSS BORDER TRADE SURVEY REPORT 2015 July, 2016 FOREWORD The 2015 Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) survey report is the eleventh report since 2005. The survey was jointly conducted by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda (BOU) at the main border crossings in the country. It collected information on cross border trade between Uganda and her neighbours that is not recorded by the Customs Department of the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA). The survey collected information on the nature of goods, values and quantities transacted among others. The contribution of informal trade to total international merchandise trade has been significant, hence the need to continuously monitor and record it. This statistical data collected is crucial in improving the quality of the trade statistics and other macroeconomic statistics that are used to inform policy and decision‐making. We would like to appreciate Government Agencies and Departments which contributed tremendously in various ways towards the execution of ICBT surveys throughout the year. These include; the Uganda Revenue Authority, the Citizen and Immigration Control Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Uganda Police, and Border security among others. We also thank the traders and transporters for their cooperation in providing the data. Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015 i TABLE OF CONTENTS DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................................................. v ACRONYMS .............................................................................................................................. vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 1 1.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Survey Objectives .................................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Overview of Global and Regional Trade Developments .............................................. 2 1.4 Structure of the Report ......................................................................................................... 2 Chapter 2: METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................... 3 2.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Trade System and Valuation ................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Selection of Monitored Border Posts ................................................................................ 3 2.3 Selection of Weeks for Monitoring ..................................................................................... 4 2.4 Survey Organization .............................................................................................................. 5 2.5 Data Collection Techniques ................................................................................................. 5 2.6 Data Collection Instruments ................................................................................................ 5 2.7 Data Processing and Analysis ............................................................................................ 5 2.8 Up-rating of Survey Results ................................................................................................. 5 2.9 Data Limitations ...................................................................................................................... 6 CHAPTER 3: SURVEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................. 7 3.0 Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 7 3.1 Comparison of Informal and Formal Trade flows .......................................................... 7 3.1.1 Formal and Informal Exports .......................................................................................... 7 3.1.2 Formal and Informal Imports ........................................................................................... 8 3.2.1 Informal Exports ................................................................................................................. 9 3.2.2 Informal Imports ............................................................................................................... 10 3.3 Trade Flows by Commodity Category ............................................................................. 10 Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015 ii 3.4 Main informal Export Commodities ................................................................................. 12 3.5 Main Informal Import Commodities ........................................................................................ 13 3.6 Trade Flows by Border Station ................................................................................................ 14 3.6.1 Informal Exports ............................................................................................................... 14 3.6.2 Informal Imports ............................................................................................................... 15 3.7 Trade Flows by Modes of Transport, 2015 ..................................................................... 15 Chapter 4: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 17 4.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 17 4.1 Summary of findings ........................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Implications................................................................................................................................... 18 4.3.1 Recommendations ........................................................................................................... 18 4.3.2 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 18 APPENDICES ........................................................................................................................... 19 Appendix I: The Up-rating Model ................................................................................................... 19 Appendix II : Leading Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011–2015 ................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Appendix III: Leading Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011– 2015 ................................................................................................................................................................ 26 Appendix IV: Informal Export Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ................... 28 Appendix V: Informal Import Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ..................... 29 Appendix VI: Informal Trade by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ................................... 30 Appendix VII: ICBT Survey Team 2015 ......................................................................................... 31 Appendix IVIII : Survey Instruments ............................................................................................. 33 Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015 iii LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Border Posts Monitored during 2015 ............................................................................. 4 Table 2: Formal and Informal Trade Flows, 2011-2015 ............................................................... 7 Table 3: Direction of Informal Trade, 2011-2015 ......................................................................... 9 Table 4a: Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 ........................ 11 Table 4b: Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 ........................ 12 Table 5: Main Informal Export Commodities, 2011-2015 ........................................................... 13 Table 6: Main Informal Import Commodities, 2011 – 2015 ........................................................ 14 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Formal Imports, Exports and Trade Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million). ....................... 8 Figure 2: Informal Imports, Exports and Trade Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million). .................... 8 Figure 4: Informal Exports by Mode of Transport, 2011 to 2015 ................................................ 16 Figure 5: Informal imports by Mode of Transport, 2011 to 2015 ................................................ 16 Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015 iv DEFINITIONS Balance of Payments Statistics This is a statistical statement that systematically summarizes the economic
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