THE INFORMAL CROSS BORDER TRADE
SURVEY REPORT 2015
July, 2016 FOREWORD
The 2015 Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) survey report is the eleventh report since 2005. The survey was jointly conducted by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda (BOU) at the main border crossings in the country. It collected information on cross border trade between Uganda and her neighbours that is not recorded by the Customs Department of the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA).
The survey collected information on the nature of goods, values and quantities transacted among others. The contribution of informal trade to total international merchandise trade has been significant, hence the need to continuously monitor and record it. This statistical data collected is crucial in improving the quality of the trade statistics and other macroeconomic statistics that are used to inform policy and decision‐making.
We would like to appreciate Government Agencies and Departments which contributed tremendously in various ways towards the execution of ICBT surveys throughout the year. These include; the Uganda Revenue Authority, the Citizen and Immigration Control Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Uganda Police, and Border security among others. We also thank the traders and transporters for their cooperation in providing the data.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
i TABLE OF CONTENTS
DEFINITIONS ...... v
ACRONYMS ...... vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... vii
Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION ...... 1
1.0 Introduction ...... 1 1.1 Background ...... 1 1.2 Survey Objectives ...... 1 1.3 Overview of Global and Regional Trade Developments ...... 2 1.4 Structure of the Report ...... 2 Chapter 2: METHODOLOGY ...... 3
2.0 Introduction ...... 3 2.1 Trade System and Valuation ...... 3 2.2 Selection of Monitored Border Posts ...... 3 2.3 Selection of Weeks for Monitoring ...... 4 2.4 Survey Organization ...... 5 2.5 Data Collection Techniques ...... 5 2.6 Data Collection Instruments ...... 5 2.7 Data Processing and Analysis ...... 5 2.8 Up-rating of Survey Results ...... 5 2.9 Data Limitations ...... 6 CHAPTER 3: SURVEY FINDINGS ...... 7
3.0 Introduction ...... 7 3.1 Comparison of Informal and Formal Trade flows ...... 7 3.1.1 Formal and Informal Exports ...... 7 3.1.2 Formal and Informal Imports ...... 8 3.2.1 Informal Exports ...... 9 3.2.2 Informal Imports ...... 10 3.3 Trade Flows by Commodity Category ...... 10
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
ii 3.4 Main informal Export Commodities ...... 12 3.5 Main Informal Import Commodities ...... 13 3.6 Trade Flows by Border Station ...... 14 3.6.1 Informal Exports ...... 14 3.6.2 Informal Imports ...... 15 3.7 Trade Flows by Modes of Transport, 2015 ...... 15 Chapter 4: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION ...... 17
4.0 Introduction ...... 17 4.1 Summary of findings ...... 17 4.2 Implications...... 18 4.3.1 Recommendations ...... 18 4.3.2 Conclusion ...... 18 APPENDICES ...... 19
Appendix I: The Up-rating Model ...... 19 Appendix II : Leading Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011–2015 ...... 24 Appendix III: Leading Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011– 2015 ...... 26 Appendix IV: Informal Export Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ...... 28 Appendix V: Informal Import Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ...... 29 Appendix VI: Informal Trade by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 ...... 30 Appendix VII: ICBT Survey Team 2015 ...... 31 Appendix IVIII : Survey Instruments ...... 33
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
iii LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Border Posts Monitored during 2015 ...... 4
Table 2: Formal and Informal Trade Flows, 2011-2015 ...... 7
Table 3: Direction of Informal Trade, 2011-2015 ...... 9
Table 4a: Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 ...... 11
Table 4b: Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 ...... 12
Table 5: Main Informal Export Commodities, 2011-2015 ...... 13
Table 6: Main Informal Import Commodities, 2011 – 2015 ...... 14
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Formal Imports, Exports and Trade Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million)...... 8
Figure 2: Informal Imports, Exports and Trade Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million)...... 8
Figure 4: Informal Exports by Mode of Transport, 2011 to 2015 ...... 16
Figure 5: Informal imports by Mode of Transport, 2011 to 2015 ...... 16
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
iv
DEFINITIONS
Balance of Payments Statistics This is a statistical statement that systematically summarizes the economic transactions of an economy with the rest of the world for a given accounting period.
Industrial Products Industrial products are all items that have been classified under the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC). The category includes processed agricultural commodities and manufactured goods.
Agricultural Products These are mainly unprocessed agricultural commodities.
Informal Cross-Border Trade Refers to trade transactions between residents and non- residents across the economic boundaries of two or more countries that are not recorded by Customs Authorities.
Other Products This is a category of goods that are not classified as either industrial or agricultural products. They comprise mainly of natural resources like sand and soil (murram), crude salt, stones and water.
Re-exports These are imports that are later exported with little value addition as stipulated by prevailing COMESA Rules of Origin (ROO). The ROO normally specify a certain percentage of value added to a product in order for a good/commodity to qualify as originating from an economic territory, below which an export is considered a re-export.
Trade Balance This is the difference between foreign exchange earnings from exports and the expenditures on imported goods.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
v ACRONYMS
BOP Balance of Payments
BOU Bank of Uganda
CIF Cost, Insurance and Freight
COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa
DRC Democratic Republic of Congo
EAC East African Community
FOB Free on board
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GTS General Trade System
HS Harmonized Commodity Coding and Description System
ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade
IMF International Monetary Fund
IMTS International Merchant Trade Statistics
ISIC International Standard for Industrial Classification
MFPED Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development
SITC Standard International Trade Classification
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
URA Uganda Revenue Authority
US United States
VAT Value Added Tax
WTO World Trade Organization
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents estimates of informal trade flows based on the findings of the Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) Survey conducted during 2015. The broad objective of the survey was to establish the volume and value of informal (unrecorded) trade between Uganda and her neighbors. The ICBT Survey is conducted monthly by Bank of Uganda (BOU) and Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) which provide both technical and financial resources towards its execution.
Formal and Informal Trade Flows in 2015
During 2015, Uganda’s formal export earnings increased marginally by 0.2 percent to US $ 2,267.0 million compared to the value of US$2,262.0 million recorded in 2014. However, informal exports declined by 3.7 percent to US $399.1 million from US$ 414.6 million recorded in 2014. The combined exports earnings (formal and informal) amounted to US $ 2,666.1 million in 2015, which was a decrease of 0.4 percent when compared to US$2,676.6 million recorded in 2014. The share of informal exports to total exports fell to 15.0 percent in 2015 from 15.5 percent in 2014.
On the other hand, formal imports (CIF) amounted to US$5,528.1 million in 2015, leading to a 9.0 percent decrease when compared to US$6,073.5 million registered in 2014. During 2015, informal imports amounted to US$ 64.3 million, a decrease of 2.3 percent when compared to the value of US$ 65.8 million registered in 2014. Total imports amounted to US$ 5,592.4 million, a decrease of 8.9 percent when compared to US$ 6,139.3 million recorded in 2014. The share of informal imports in total imports remained relatively stable at 1.1 percent in 2015.
Direction of Informal Trade
Overall, informal exports receipts from neighboring countries decreased except for DR Congo and Kenya. Specifically, informal exports to Burundi fell significantly by 87.6 percent, Sudan by 34.1 percent, Tanzania by 21.8 percent and Rwanda by 11.2 percent. On the other hand informal exports to DR Congo grew by 30.5 percent in 2015 to US$ 182.1 million from US$ 139.5 million registered in 2014, whereas exports to Kenya grew by 3.8 percent from US $ 92.9 million to US $ 96.4 million.
Kenya retained its position as the leading source of Uganda’s informal imports during 2015. Informal imports from Kenya increased to US$31.9 million accounting for a 49.6 percentage share of the total informal imports in 2015, compared to US$30.8 million recorded in 2014. DR Congo ranked second, with imports estimated at US$ 18.3 million accounting for a 28.4 percent share.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
vii Main Commodities Exported and Imported During 2015
Informal exports and imports have been grouped into 3 categories; Industrial, Agricultural and Other products to take into account the level of processing of the goods transacted.
Industrial products in 2015 dominated informal trade exports and informal imports whose market shares stood at 63.1 percent and 50.7 percent respectively. In 2015, industrial informal exports increased by 5.8 percent to US $ 251.8 million compared to US$ 238.0 million recorded in 2014. DR Congo was the major destination for most of the industrial exports fetching US $ 130.9 million, representing 52.0 percent of the informal industrial exports during 2015 when compared to US $ 94.9 million (39.9 percent) recorded in 2014.
Agricultural products ranked second with US$146.2 million in 2015 representing 42.2 percent of the total informal exports receipts compared to US$174.9 million recorded in 2014. DR Congo and Kenya were the main destination for agricultural commodities with a combined value of US$ 99.4 million, representing 68.0 percent of the informal agricultural exports.
The Other product category comprising of mainly natural resources only accounted for about US $ 1.1 million during 2015, representing 0.3 percent of the informal exports.
Trade Flows by Border Station
The Informal Cross Border Trade survey covered 20 border points and 4 bus terminals representing coverage of over 90 percent of the informal trade transactions between Uganda and her neighbours.
During 2015, Elegu, Mpondwe, Busia, Katuna, Oraba and Mutukula border stations accounted for the largest share of informal exports, representing a combined share of 71.0 percent of informal export revenue. Mpondwe alone, accounted for informal exports estimated at US$ 118.4 million (29.7 percent) followed by Busia border post with US$ 69.9 million (17.5 percent) and Elegu with US $ 64.0 million (16.0 percent).
Busia, Mutukula, Malaba, Mpondwe, Paidha and Suam River were the leading entry points for informal imports in 2015, with a combined share of 80.1 percent (US$ 51.4 million).
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
viii Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION
1.0 Introduction
This introductory chapter provides a brief background to the Informal cross border trade survey; discusses the global and regional trade situation during 2015 and outlines the survey objectives.
1.1 Background
The 2015 informal cross border surveys marked the eleventh survey in a series of ICBT surveys since inception in 2005. The survey aimed at improving the quality of international merchandise trade statistics for the compilation of balance of payments and national accounts statistics.
The ICBT survey was jointly conducted by Bank of Uganda (BOU) and Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), who provided both technical and financial support towards its implementation. The survey also benefited from support of various stakeholders at border posts like URA, the Immigration Department, Uganda Police and other security agencies, the Business Community and the Local Leaders.
1.2 Survey Objectives
The broad objective of the Survey was to establish the volume and value of unrecorded/informal trade flows between Uganda and her neighbors. Within this broad objective, the specific objectives were to;
Determine the nature and composition of commodities transacted under informal trade; Establish the direction of informal cross border trade (i.e. country of destination/origin); Estimate volumes and values of informal trade flows; and Generate monthly, quarterly and annual ICBT estimates for balance of payments and national accounts statistics compilation.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
1 1.3 Overview of Global and Regional Trade Developments
According to the World Trade Statistical Review 2016, growth in the volume of world merchandize trade remained sluggish in 2015, at 2.7 percent. This was the fourth consecutive year with trade volume growth below 3 percent. Despite the modest increase in volume terms, the dollar value of merchandize trade declined sharply in 2015, as exports fell by 14 percent compared to 2014. This discrepancy between trade growth in terms of volume and value was mostly attributable to large swings in commodity prices and exchange rates. The factors that contributed to the lurklustre performance of world volume trade in 2015 include slowdown in China, recessions in other emerging market economies such as Brazil, falling prices for oil and other primary commodities and financial volatility driven by divergent monetary policies in developed countries.
In terms of regional distribution, 2015 saw the re-emergence of Europe and North America as key players in world trade. Import demand in these regions recovered in 2015 and compensated for the weak import demand in developing countries. Asia, which has contributed more than any other region to the recovery of world trade since the 2008-09 financial crisis saw its contribution to global import demand shrink in 2015, mainly due to slow growth in China and other Asian economies. South and Central America and other regions including Africa, the Middle East and the Commonwealth Independent States (CIS) recorded negative contributions to world import growth in 2015.
World merchandize exports grew by 3 percent in 2015, with Europe and Asia being the major contributors accounting for about 89 percent of this growth. South and Central America also made small positive contributions towards export growth in 2015, while the contribution by North America was close to zero. Exports from emerging economies declined in 2015, largely driven by lower export earnings in Russia, India and Brazil. For Africa, the value of exports dropped by 30 percent in 2015, mainly due to the negative impact of declining oil prices on oil exports in key countries like Nigeria, Algeria, Equatorial Guinea and Angola; slow growth in North Africa as well as domestic and political turmoil.
1.4 Structure of the Report
The rest of the report is organised as follows: Chapter 2 presents the methodology while Chapter 3 highlights the main findings. The Summary of findings, potential policy implications, recommendations and conclusion are provided in Chapter 4.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
2 Chapter 2: METHODOLOGY
2.0 Introduction
The selection criteria of the monitored border posts, survey organization, data collection techniques and instruments, up-rating of survey results and survey limitations are discussed in this chapter.
2.1 Trade System and Valuation
The collection of ICBT data follows the General Trade System (GTS) of compiling International Merchandise Trade Statistics. The GTS requires that all goods leaving or entering the country are recorded as they cross the customs frontiers. During data collection, the following are recorded:
All merchandise leaving/entering the country carried on foot, bicycles, push carts, motorcycles, vehicle, wheel chairs, donkeys and boats both in large and small quantities that is not recorded by customs authorities;
Undeclared or under declared merchandise of traders on formal customs declaration documents.
The following items are excluded from informal trade recording:
Goods properly (100 percent) declared and verified by customs officials on declaration documents;
Transit goods into and out of the country at any border post being monitored;
Goods smuggled into or out of the country (including night time cross border transactions)
The valuation of informal exports is based on Free On Board (FOB) valuation, while imports are valued at Cost Insurance and Freight (CIF). All prices used are collected from trading centre’s/markets that are close to the border posts where informal trade is monitored. However, for large consignments of goods, whole sale prices are used, while for small quantities retail prices are used.
2.2 Selection of Monitored Border Posts
The ICBT 2015 Survey covered twenty gazetted border posts and four bus terminals where merchandise destined to the neighboring countries is loaded and offloaded. The selection of the monitoring sites was based on the significance of trade flows through the border post; availability of Customs Offices and supporting Government institutions such Immigration; Police and other security organs; and, availability of other necessary infrastructure to support
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
3 fieldwork. The border posts monitored and the respective neighboring countries are shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Border Posts Monitored during 2015 Country Customs Country Customs Kenya Busia DR Congo Bunagana Lwakhakha Goli Malaba Ishasha river Suam river Mpondwe Rwanda Cyanika Ntoroko Katuna Odramachaku Mirama hills Paidha Sudan Elegu Vvura Oraba Tanzania Bugango Kikagati Mutukula Source: UBOS & BOU
In addition to the border posts, four bus terminals were monitored covering the following routes; Kampala/Kigali, Kampala/Juba, Kampala/Bujumbura and Kampala/Bukoba/Dares- salaam. Transactions through the selected bus terminals were included in the estimates for the respective borders.
2.3 Selection of Weeks for Monitoring
Ideally, ICBT data should be collected on a daily basis for the entire month. However, due to financial and logistical resource constraints, it is not possible to monitor ICBT activities on a daily basis. Subsequently, monitoring was done for two weeks in each month and estimates were made for the remaining days. The weeks chosen for monitoring were supposed to be randomly selected to avoid bias. However, for practical purposes, a combination of both random and purposive selection was used to avoid costs escalation. Consequently, two consecutive weeks were selected from each month for continuous monitoring and trade in the remaining two weeks plus 2 or 3 days depending on the month was estimated.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
4
2.4 Survey Organization
The UBOS and BOU Staff coordinated and supervised survey field activities on a monthly basis for quality control purposes and to ensure compliance to set field practices. At every border station, a minimum of two enumerators were engaged to record data during the monitoring weeks. The team of enumerators was composed of trained individuals with adequate knowledge of the local languages at the respective border stations. The training conducted for all enumerators and supervisors focused on imparting skills and competencies for data collection, and tactics of obtaining information from traders. Enumerators were also trained on how to interact and gather additional information from stakeholders.
2.5 Data Collection Techniques
The recording of informal trade was based on direct observation techniques. However, where necessary, verification was done through inquiries made to traders, clearing agents, revenue officers and security personnel and through weighing to ascertain quantities for some selected items. The methods used are the most cost-effective way of gathering data at border posts where conditions are far from ideal. The direct observation technique entails strategic positioning of enumerators at border posts to enable them to record all merchandise into and out of the country. All traded goods that are not recorded by Customs Authorities are captured at the point of crossing the customs frontier in counter books or specially designed forms specifying the item, quantity, value and mode of transport among others.
2.6 Data Collection Instruments
The instruments used by enumerators during data collection included; counter books, list of units of measure and conversion factors, Summary Forms “A” used to summarize daily commodity data and a Vehicle form used for capturing trade data of commodities ferried on vehicles especially at Oraba, Elegu, Mutukula and Mpondwe (see Appendix VII). Vehicles are the dominant carriers of traded goods at these border posts and posed a major recording challenge that necessitated the introduction of a specific form tailored to capture more details. Other materials used include; calculators, rulers, pens and weighing scales.
2.7 Data Processing and Analysis
The data was captured on a monthly basis at UBOS and edited by officials from both institutions to ensure accuracy. The data was also coded to facilitate its transformation to the Harmonized Commodity Coding and Description System (HS) and Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) Nomenclatures. The ICBT data tabulation and analysis used, followed a predetermined tabulation scheme approved by the technical working team in line with intended survey objectives.
2.8 Up-rating of Survey Results
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
5 Up-rating of survey results was necessary in order to generate monthly estimates from data collected during the two weeks of monitoring. The up-rating methodology was based on the key assumption that different days of each of the two weeks surveyed reflect trade flows for similar days not covered in the same month. In addition, seasonality effects were taken into consideration for agricultural products. (Refer to Appendix I for details on the up-rating model).
2.9 Data Limitations
(i) The survey does not cover all points of exit/entry into the country leading to some under estimation of informal trade flows;
(ii) Trade occurring at night and beyond the stipulated time of monitoring (7.00a.m to 6.p.m) is not covered1;
(iii) Difficulty in accurately estimating the quantities of some traded items especially where assorted goods were carried in one package poses some accuracy challenges. Other estimation problems arose where items were transported in packages that were not transparent, and those in bulk like sugar canes, fruits etc.
1 Whereas this could constitute some underestimation, it is minimal.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
6 CHAPTER 3: SURVEY FINDINGS
3.0 Introduction
This chapter presents the survey findings for 2015. The indicators derived from the survey data include levels of informal imports and exports, trade balance, direction of trade flows, and the comparative values of formal and informal trade. Further, trade by border station, commodity category, volume and value of major imported and exported commodities were examined.
3.1 Comparison of Informal and Formal Trade flows
3.1.1 Formal and Informal Exports
During 2015, the combined exports earnings (formal and informal) amounted to US $ 2,666.1 million, of which, formal exports were worth US $ 2,267.0 million, while informal exports accounted for US $ 399.1 million. The overall export earnings declined by 0.4 percent in 2015, after a decrease of 5.4 percent in 2014. Informal exports receipts reduced by 3.7 percent in 2015 compared to a decrease of 1.6 percent registered in 2014.
Generally, over the last two years, the total exports earnings have been declining as indicated in Table 2.
Table 2: Formal and Informal Trade Flows, 2011-2015 (US$ Millions). YEAR Trade Flow 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Informal Exports 355.8 453.7 421.3 414.6 399.1 Formal/Official 2,159.1 2,357.5 2,407.7 2,262.0 2,267.0 Exports Total Exports 2,514.9 2,811.2 2,829.0 2,676.6 2,666.1 Informal Imports 53.9 53 53.7 65.8 64.3 Formal/Official 5,630.9 6,042.8 5,817.5 6,073.5 5,528.1 Imports Total Imports 5,684.8 6,095.8 5,871.2 6,139.3 5,592.4 Trade Balance -3,169.9 -3,284.6 -3,042.1 -3,462.8 -2,926.3 % change (Exports) 17.1 11.8 0.6 -5.4 -0.4 % change (Imports) 20.2 7.2 -3.7 4.6 -8.9 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
7
3.1.2 Formal and Informal Imports
The imports bill decreased by 8.9 percent in 2015 compared to a 4.6 percent increase in 2014 and a fall of 3.7 percent recorded in 2013 (see Table 2 above). The total import bill stood at US $ 5,592.4 million in 2015, with formal imports accounting for US $ 5,528.1 million, while informal imports were estimated at US$ 64.3 million. In 2015, formal and informal imports decreased by 9.0 percent and 2.3 percent respectively.
The developments in the external trade sector resulted into a reduced trade deficit which was estimated at US$ 2,926.3 million in 2015, compared to the US$3,462.8 million deficit recorded in 2014 (see table 2). Overall, Uganda remained a net exporter under informal trade during the period under review.
Figure 1: Formal Imports, Exports and Trade Figure 2: Informal Imports, Exports and Trade Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million). Balance, 2011-2015 (US$ million).
8,000.00 500 450 6,000.00 400 U 350 U 4,000.00 S 300 S $ 2,000.00 250 $ 200 0.00 m 150 m 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 n 100 n -2,000.00 50 -4,000.00 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 -6,000.00 Year Year
Formal Exports Formal Imports Trade Balance Informal Exports Informal Imports Trade Balance
Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
8 3.2 Direction of Informal Trade 3.2.1 Informal Exports
DR Congo was the leading informal exports destination during 2015, with exports receipts estimated at US$182.1 million, representing a 45.6 percent share of total informal exports receipts. Kenya followed with US$96.4 million (24.2 percent) which was slightly higher than US$92.9 million (22.4 percent) registered in 2014. Exports to South Sudan came third amounting to US$78.8 million (19.7 percent), which was a decline as compared to US$119.5 million (28.8 percent) recorded in 2014. The reduction in exports to South Sudan is in part attributed to the civil unrest that has plagued the country over the last few years. Rwanda and Tanzania followed in that order representing 5.4 percent and 4.6 percent of informal exports in 2015 respectively (see table 3 below).
Table 3: Direction of Informal Trade, 2011-2015 (US$ Millions). Exports
Destination Values Percentage Share 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Burundi 12.6 15.3 15.1 15 1.9 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.5 D R Congo 126.1 157.9 135 139.5 182.1 34.8 32 33.6 45.6 Kenya 69.5 80 69.7 92.9 96.4 17.6 16.5 22.4 24.2 Rwanda 35.1 38.1 27.9 24.5 21.8 8.4 6.6 5.9 5.4 South Sudan 83.7 115.1 130.8 119.5 78.8 25.4 31.1 28.8 19.7 Tanzania 28.8 47.5 42.8 23.3 18.2 10.5 10.2 5.6 4.6 Total 355.8 453.7 421.3 414.6 399.1 100 100 100 100 Imports Origin Values Percentage Share 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015 Burundi - 0 - - 0.1 - - - D R Congo 21.5 20.3 17.7 21.3 18.3 38.3 33 32.4 28.4 Kenya 27 24.5 26.5 30.8 31.9 46.3 49.4 46.7 49.6 Rwanda 1.7 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.2 5.8 4.7 3.4 1.8 South Sudan 1.4 3.2 5.6 3.8 2.3 6 10.4 5.8 3.5 Tanzania 2.4 1.8 1.3 7.7 10.7 3.5 2.5 11.7 16.6 Total 53.9 53 53.7 65.8 64.3 100 100 100 100.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal exports to most of the neighboring countries decreased during 2015 except for DR Congo and Kenya which recorded a growth of 30.0 percent and 3.8 percent in 2015, compared to 3.3 percent and 33.3 percent in 2014 respectively. Informal exports to Burundi and South Sudan recorded significant decreases of 87.6 percent and 33.5 percent respectively in 2015. Similarly, informal exports to Tanzania and Rwanda declined by 21.8 percent and 11.2 percent respectively.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
9 3.2.2 Informal Imports
Kenya continued to be the leading source of Uganda’s informal imports during 2015 with informal imports worth US$31.9 million, accounting for 49.6 percent of total informal imports bill in 2015. This was higher compared with an estimated value of US$ 30.8 million, which was 46.7 percent of total informal imports recorded in 2014. DR Congo ranked second, with import expenditure amounting to US$18.3 million (28.4 percent) compared to US$21.3 million (32.4 percent) registered in 2014. The other remaining countries Tanzania, Rwanda and South Sudan had a combined import bill of US$ 14.2 million (21.9 percent) during 2015, compared to US$ 13.7 million (20.9 percent) recorded in 2014. Uganda’s informal imports from Tanzania and Kenya increased significantly while those from Rwanda, South Sudan and DR Congo declined in the year 2015.
3.3 Trade Flows by Commodity Category
Informal exports are grouped into 3 categories; Industrial, Agricultural and Other products2 to show the level of processing for the goods transacted.
During 2015, Industrial products continued to dominate both informal exports and imports. The share of exports of industrial products rose to 63 percent in 2015 from 57 percent in 2014; while that for informal imports rose to 51 percent from 47 percent in 2014.
From Table 4a, industrial exports amounted to US$ 251.8 million representing a 5.8 percent rise compared to US$ 238.0 million reported in 2014. DR Congo had the largest share of Uganda’s informal industrial exports of $ 130.9 million in 2015 compared to $ 94.9 million in 2014, followed by Kenya which had US$ 46.7 million in 2015 compared to $ 40.0 million in 2014.
Agricultural products ranked second fetching US$146.2 million in 2015 representing 36.6 percent of total informal exports, compared to US$174.9 million recorded in 2014. In 2015, DR Congo and Kenya were the main destinations for agricultural commodities amounting to for US$49.7 million each, followed by South Sudan and Tanzania with US$34.9 million and US$7.7 million respectively.
The Other products category comprising of mainly natural resources amounted to about US$1.1 million, registering a 31.3 percent decrease during 2015.
2 Other products includes natural resources not categorized elsewhere
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
10 Table 4a: Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 (US$ Million) Country/Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Burundi 12.7 15.3 15.1 15.0 1.8 Agricultural 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 Industrial 12.3 15.1 14.9 14.8 1.8 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DR Congo 126.2 157.9 135.0 139.5 181.4 Agricultural 32.5 45.2 39.9 43.3 49.7 Industrial 92.5 111.2 94.4 94.9 130.9 Other Products 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.8 Kenya 69.5 80.0 69.7 92.9 96.5 Agricultural 45.0 43.8 36.7 52.8 49.7 Industrial 24.4 36.1 32.8 40.0 46.7 Other Products 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 Rwanda 35.0 38.1 27.9 24.5 21.7 Agricultural 11.6 19.5 13.9 12.3 4.2 Industrial 23.3 18.4 13.9 12.1 17.5 Other Products 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 South Sudan 83.6 115.1 130.8 119.4 79.4 Agricultural 30.4 54.5 57.7 58.1 34.9 Industrial 53.1 60.4 73.0 61.1 44.3 Other Products 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Tanzania 28.8 47.4 42.8 23.3 18.2 Agricultural 3.2 21.7 18.2 8.2 7.7 Industrial 25.6 25.7 24.5 15.0 10.5 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Exports 355.8 453.8 421.3 414.5 399.0 Agricultural 123.1 184.9 166.6 174.9 146.2 Industrial 231.2 266.9 253.5 238.0 251.7 Other Products 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.6 1.1 Source: UBOS & BOU
The informal trade imports registered a decrease of 2.3 percent from US$65.8 million in 2014 to US$64.5 million in 2015. The informal imports of industrial products which increased from US$ 30.9 million in 2014 to US$ 32.7 million in 2015, accounted for 50.7 percent of the total informal imports bill. Informal imports of agricultural commodities amounted to US$ 31.2 million in 2015 compared to US$34.7 million recorded in 2014, registering a decrease of 10.2 percent. Kenya maintained its position as the main source of industrial commodities accounting for US$ 24.6 million, while DR Congo was the main origin for informal imported agricultural commodities accounting for US$ 12.7 million in 2015. Further details are presented in Table 4b below.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
11 Table 4b: Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Country, 2011 - 2015 (US$ Million) Country/Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DR Congo 21.5 20.3 17.7 21.3 18.4 Agricultural 17.0 14.5 13.1 15.4 12.7 Industrial 4.4 5.8 4.5 5.7 5.4 Other Products 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Kenya 27.0 24.5 26.5 30.8 31.9 Agricultural 5.7 5.9 7.9 10.0 7.1 Industrial 21.3 18.6 18.5 20.7 24.6 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 Rwanda 1.7 3.1 2.5 2.3 1.2 Agricultural 1.3 2.6 1.5 2.0 1.0 Industrial 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.2 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 South Sudan 1.4 3.2 5.6 3.9 2.3 Agricultural 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 Industrial 1.1 2.8 4.7 2.9 1.7 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Tanzania 2.3 1.8 1.3 7.7 10.7 Agricultural 1.6 1.5 0.8 6.4 9.9 Industrial 0.7 0.3 0.5 1.3 0.8 Other Products 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Imports 53.9 52.9 53.6 66.0 64.5 Agricultural 25.9 24.9 24.2 34.7 31.2 Industrial 27.9 28.0 29.2 30.9 32.7 Other Products 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Source: UBOS & BOU
3.4 Main informal Export Commodities
The leading informal exports commodities during 2015 were; fish (11.1 percent), clothes-new and second hand (9.2 percent), shoes (8.7 percent), maize grains (5.7 percent), beans (4.7 percent) and sandals (4.1 percent), whose combined export receipts were estimated at US$173.6 million, accounting for 43.5 percent of the total informal exports. Significant increases were recorded for a number of the items exported like timber, wheat flour, textile materials, sacks, cement, alcohol/spirits, bed sheets, salt, fish and clothes. However, significant decreases were also registered for items like cattle, goats, sandals, maize grains, maize flour, beans, motorcycle parts and shoes among others.
According to product categories, the main informal agricultural exports were fish, maize grain, beans, cattle and fruits, while the main informal industrial exports were clothes (new and second hand), shoes, sandals, timber, alcohol/spirits and maize flour (see table 5 below).
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
12 Table 5: Main Informal Export Commodities, 2011-2015 (US$ Million). Year Percentage share
Items 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fish 27.5 37.9 34.0 37.3 44.4 7.7 8.4 8.1 9.0 11.1 Clothes (new & used) 24.2 27.0 32.1 34.2 36.6 6.8 6.0 7.6 8.2 9.2 Shoes 39.7 49.6 43.3 41.7 34.8 11.2 10.9 10.3 10.1 8.7 Maize grains 15.6 44.1 36.9 32.8 22.9 4.4 9.7 8.8 7.9 5.7 Beans 21.2 22.0 19.4 24.2 18.6 6.0 4.8 4.6 5.8 4.7 Sandals 16.5 13.7 15.3 23.0 16.4 4.6 3.0 3.6 5.5 4.1 Timber 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 3.2 Alcohol/spirits 3.3 5.2 3.4 10.3 11.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 2.5 2.9 Maize flour 10.2 14.2 27.0 15.9 11.6 2.9 3.1 6.4 3.8 2.9 Cattle 11.4 17.0 16.3 18.4 9.8 3.2 3.7 3.9 4.4 2.4 Fruits 4.2 3.9 4.6 6.0 5.8 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.5 Eggs 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 Salt 2.0 4.5 3.9 5.1 5.6 0.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 Wheat flour 6.1 9.7 5.5 2.6 5.2 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 1.3 Goats 3.3 6.4 7.0 8.2 4.9 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.2 Motorcycle parts 4.5 6.9 6.6 5.8 4.7 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 Textile materials 1.9 5.0 1.1 2.7 4.7 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 Bicycle parts 7.2 8.8 8.2 4.9 4.5 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.1 Soda 6.6 8.2 4.9 4.5 4.5 1.9 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 Bananas 4.6 6.1 5.0 4.8 4.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 Sacks 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 Tomatoes 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.0 4.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 Bed sheets 4.6 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.8 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 Bags 3.0 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 Cement 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 3.7 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 Others 123.4 141.0 124.3 108.5 109.9 34.7 31.1 29.5 26.2 27.5 Grand Total 355.8 453.7 421.0 415.0 399.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
3.5 Main Informal Import Commodities
The main imported commodities under ICBT in 2015 were rice, wheat flour, coffee, groundnuts, beans, cassava, cooking oil, salt, palm oil, bananas, onions, yeast, cement, clothes (new and used) and fruits. Altogether, these commodities accounted for US$43.2 million, representing a share of 67.3 percent of the total informal import bill, with rice alone accounting for 11.7 percent.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
13 Table 6: Main Informal Import Commodities, 2011 – 2015 (US$ Million).
Year Percentage share
Commodity 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rice 3.0 5.3 8.3 12.2 7.5 5.5 10.0 15.5 18.5 11.7
Wheat flour 2.1 2.0 3.2 6.2 6.1 3.9 3.8 6.0 9.4 9.6
Coffee 7.6 6.2 6.6 10.6 5.0 14.1 11.7 12.3 16.1 7.8
Groundnuts 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.0 2.9 4.8
Beans 3.3 3.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 6.1 6.6 3.9 2.9 4.0
Cassava 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.4 2.4 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.6 3.7
Cooking oil 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.4 5.3 6.0 6.1 4.9 3.7
Salt 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.3 3.6
Palm oil 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 3.2 4.7 5.0 3.2 3.5
Bananas 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 5.2 4.2 3.7 3.5 3.4
Onions 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.7 2.7
Yeast 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
Cement 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.5 0.7 1.2 2.4
Clothes (new & used) 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 4.7 3.4 3.2 2.6 2.2
Fruits 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.9
Maize grains 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.8
Sorghum grains 0.2 1.0 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.4 1.9 0.7 0.9 1.6
Juice 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.4
Perfumes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
Fertilizers 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.8
Petroleum jelly 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
Soap 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 2.9 3.2 3.2 1.7 0.8
Milk 0.6 1.0 1.7 0.9 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.2 1.4 0.8
Petrol 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.7
Potatoes irish 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.7
Others 20.7 16.9 15.4 14.0 14.2 38.4 31.9 28.7 21.3 22.1 Grand Total 53.9 53.0 53.7 65.8 64.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal imports of yeast, perfumes, maize grains, cassava, petrol, fruits, sorghum grains, cement, groundnuts, onions, salt and fertilizers among others registered significant increases for the year ending 2015. However, imports of soap, coffee, milk, rice, irish potatoes, cooking oil, clothes (new & used), and bananas registered decreases of 54.5 percent, 52.8 percent, 44.4 percent, 38.5 percent, 28.6 percent, 25.0 percent, 17.6 percent and 4.3 percent respectively. Overall, the total informal imports bill decreased by 2.3 percent.
3.6 Trade Flows by Border Station
3.6.1 Informal Exports
During 2015, the leading exit borders for informal exports were Mpondwe (DR Congo), Busia (Kenya), Elegu (South Sudan), Mutukula (Tanzania) and Katuna (Rwanda) with a combined share of 71.4 percent. Mpondwe border post alone, accounted for US$118.4 million which was 29.7 percent of the share of total informal exports. This was an increase of 23.1 percent when compared to the value of US$ 96.2 million registered in 2014. Busia was second, accounting for US$ 69.9 million of informal exports representing a 15.5 percent decrease when compared to US$ 82.8 million registered in 2014 (see Appendix IV). Elegu border post Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
14 followed with informal exports worth US$ 64.0 million (16.0 percent) compared to US$ 96.3 million recorded in 2014, indicating a decrease of 33.5 percent.
In 2015, exports through Suam River registered the highest percentage increase of 519.5 percent because NFA and District Authorities of Bukwo ordered for thinning of the forest which led to massive export of timber informally.
Exports through Goli, Ntoroko, Lwakhakha, Malaba, Ishasha River, Mpondwe, Bunagana, Paidha and Odramachaku also registered increases of 128.6 percent, 97.1 percent, 55.6 percent, 43.3 percent, 37.0 percent, 23.1 percent, 15.9 percent, 13.2 percent and 12.6 percent respectively. On the other hand, Exports through Katuna to Burundi registered a fall of 87.3 percent. Exports through Oraba, Kikagati, Elegu, Mutukula, Cyanika, Mirama Hills, Busia, Vvura and Katuna customs recorded a fall during the year 2015.
3.6.2 Informal Imports
Busia remained the leading entry point for ICBT imports in 2015 accounting for US$18.7 million, a share of 29.1 percent of the informal import bill. Mutukula ranked second, accounting for US$10.2 million (or 15.9 percent), an increase of 36.0 percent when compared to US$7.5 million recorded in 2014. Malaba and Mpondwe followed with US$8.4 million (13.1 percent) and US$6.3 million (9.8 percent) respectively. Some border stations like Goli, Ntoroko, Suam River and Ishasha River registered significant increases. Overall, several border stations recorded declines in informal imports with the most notable ones being Oraba (85.7 percent), Katuna (56.3 percent), Goli (54.5 percent), Mpondwe (46.6 percent) and Vvura (25.0 percent) as shown in Appendix V.
3.7 Trade Flows by Modes of Transport, 2015
Figures 4 and 5 below show the shares of the different modes of transport used in the transportation of informal exports and imports over the period 2011 to 2015. Vehicles continued to transport the biggest share of informal exports in 2015 accounting for US$ 236.9 million representing 59.0 percent of informal exports. Bicycles ranked second, conveying goods worth US$ 51.9 million (13.0 percent). Motor cycles followed with a value of US$ 32.5million, then Push Carts with US$ 27.8 Million. Boats/canoes which conveyed exports worth US$ 13.6 million were only used at Ntoroko landing site to transport informal exports to DR Congo.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
15
Figure 4: Informal Exports by Mode of Figure 5: Informal imports by Mode of Transport, 2011 to 2015 (US$ Million) Transport, 2011 to 2015 (US$ Million)
300.0 25.0 U U 250.0 S S 20.0 200.0 $ $ 15.0 150.0 10.0 m 100.0 m n n 50.0 5.0
0.0 0.0
Mode of Transport Mode of Transport
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: UBOS & BOU
Similarly for the informal imports, Vehicles were the main mode of transport in 2015 accounting for US$ 22.2 million (34.6 percent) of the informal imports bill. Bicycles ranked second accounting for US$ 20.0 million (31.1 percent), followed by motorcycles (13.2 percent), Head/hand (10.2 percent), wheel chairs (7.4 percent,), push carts (2.5 percent), boats/canoes with 0.6 percent tricycle (0.2 percent).
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
16 Chapter 4: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
4.0 Introduction
This chapter presents a summary of the survey findings and highlights the implications to the trade sector and the economy and makes recommendations.
4.1 Summary of findings
The main findings of the survey were as follows:
(i) The combined formal and informal export earnings decreased marginally in 2015 to US $ 2,666.1 million from US $ 2,676.6 million in 2014. During 2015, informal exports were estimated at US $ 399.1 million, representing a decline of 0.4 percent compared to the value of US$ 414.6 million recorded in 2014. Specifically, significant declines in informal export trade were recorded with Burundi, South Sudan, Tanzania and Rwanda in 2015. (ii) The overall imports bill decreased from US $ 6,139.3 million in 2014 to US $ million 5,592.4 in 2015. Of these, informal imports were estimated at US $ 64.3 million in 2015 compared to US$ 65.8 million recorded in 2014.
(iii) Industrial products dominated both informal exports and imports accounting for 63.0 percent and 50.7 percent respectively in 2015. The main items exported informally during 2015 included ; fish, clothes (new and second hand), shoes, maize grains, beans, sandals, timber, alcohol/spirits, maize flour, cattle, fruits, eggs, salt, wheat flour, goats, motorcycle parts, textile materials, bicycle parts, soda, bananas, sacks, tomatoes, bed sheets, bags, blankets, and cement in that respective order.
(iv) Informal exports to all neighbouring countries decreased except for DR Congo and Kenya which registered a 30.0 percent and 3.8 percent increases respectively in 2015. Similarly, Kenya maintained its position as the main source of informal imports accounting for 49.6 percent of the total informal imports in 2015.
(v) The leading exit borders for informal exports were Mpondwe, Busia, Elegu, Mutukula and Katuna with a combined share of 71.4 percent of the total informal exports revenue. On the other hand, Busia remained the leading entry point for informal imports in 2015 accounting for US$ 18.7 million, a share of 29.1 percent of the informal import bill.
(vi) Vehicles and bicycles were the major modes of transportation accounting for a combined value of US$ 288.8 million representing 72.4 percent of informal exports. For both informal exports and imports, the vehicle mode of transport accounted for 59.4 percent and 34.6 percent respectively in 2015.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
17 4.2 Implications
Trade in agricultural commodities like maize, beans, rice, groundnuts and tubers (cassava, Irish potatoes and yams) plays an important role in food security in the region. It also enhances household incomes as it provides a ready market for the surplus output. However, to the extent that much of this trade involves unprocessed agricultural commodities, there is a loss of potential income that could have been earned through value addition.
Regional peace contributes significantly to trade growth. In the year 2015, escalation of conflict in South Sudan resulted in a significant decline in trade between South Sudan and Uganda due to increased insecurity.
4.3 Conclusion and recommendations.
4.3.1 Recommendations
Government should encourage and support trade in agricultural commodities as it helps to improve food security and incomes of households. Efforts could include construction of mordernised markets at the borders. In addition, where possible, efforts to add value to agricultural exports should be pursued to increase earnings.
Initiatives aimed at promoting regional peace should be pursued and where they are ongoing, supported. This is important for ensuring security of traders and border communities who play a vital role in ICBT
4.3.2 Conclusion
Informal export trade represents a significant share of Uganda’s merchandise trade with her neigbouring countries. The integration of informal trade into formal merchandise trade has continued to improve Uganda’s balance of payment position. Overall, the country remained the net exporter under informal trade arrangement. The results indicate that there is a great market potential for regional trade, hence there is need to ensure it thrives.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
18 APPENDICES
Appendix I: The Up-rating Model
The up rating process is based on the following Assumptions;
(a) The supply for industrial and other products from either side of the borders is fairly constant throughout the month while the supply of Agricultural products fluctuate depending on season and on whether a given day is a market day or not.
(b) Trade transactions through the other unmonitored crossing points in the neighborhood of the monitored border stations are estimated individually based on qualitative monthly reports that are compiled by supervisors.
(c) The average value of flows (imports/exports) for a day of the week, say Tuesday is multiplied by the number of times Tuesday occurs in a month. The procedure is repeated for all the days of the week and a sum of the values estimated to get the monthly estimates. The maximum number a day say Tuesday occurs in a month is 5 times while the least is 4 times.
Under assumption (a) above, for industrial and other products with constant trade flows, consider a given month having n days with a daily average value of industrial and other products of µi. The total value of inflows/outflows of industrial and other products in a month are therefore mathematically presented as:
Ai= n µi ------(1)
Equation (1) states that to get the monthly value estimates for the months in question/consideration, the average daily values of industrial and other products from survey figures are multiplied by number of days in a given month.
Therefore, the aggregate estimated value of inflows/outflows during the survey period is the sum of the estimates of the twelve months monitored.
Mathematically,
12 A T ni (2) i1
Where i = month monitored and AT are total export/imports flows for industrial and other product categories.
Equation (2) represents estimated total value of informal exports/ imports of the industrial and other products traded during the 12 months of border monitoring.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
19 These are informal trade flows (exports and imports) of goods in industrial products and other products category that passed through the monitored borders during the full days of twelve months of monitoring.
To up-rate informal trade flows of agricultural and other agricultural products during the twelve months of the survey, assumption (b) is taken into consideration. The monthly aggregate of agricultural trade flows can be expressed as the sum of product of the number of particular days in a month and the average imports/exports for the day of the week.
Let dj represent the number of particular days in a month, say four Mondays in March 2010 and ¥j the daily average value of agricultural exports/imports of a given day computed from the observed trade figures. Then,
B = dj ¥j------(3)
Where B, stands for the monthly total value of trade for a given day, say Monday in a month of agricultural exports/imports (i.e. total of all Mondays). Note that, the maximum number of times a day of the week appears in a month is 5 times.
Therefore, the monthly informal agricultural exports/imports aggregates for all days in a month are estimated as;
BT= 7 d j ¥j ------(4) j1
Where j represents day of the week, i.e. Monday, Tuesday…Sunday. Adding the monthly totals for 12 months we get the aggregate informal (unrecorded) agricultural flows as;
12 7 d j ¥j ------(5) k1 j1
Where k, stands for the months monitored which were twelve in our case.
Equation (5) represents the estimated total value of informal exports/imports of the agricultural products traded during the twelve months of monitoring.
Finally we estimate total informal traded goods that passed through the routes known as “Panya routes” in the vicinity of the monitored border stations that enumerators could not capture.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
20 From assumption (c) above, the percentages provided for each border post was multiplied by equation (2) and (5) to yield informal imports/exports estimates through the neighborhood. For instance, if informal trade through Busia neighborhood alone was estimated at 25 percent, the estimated trade flows were computed as,
C= 12 12 7 [ni d j ¥j]1/ 4 ------(6) i1 k1 j1
Equation (6) represents informal trade flows (exports and imports) of goods in all categories that passed through the routes within the vicinity of Busia Border post that could not be captured by the fieldworkers. The computation using the above equation for all other border posts is repeated to obtain overall estimates through unmonitored routes.
A summation of the results from the three equations (2), (5) and (6) gives the up-rated estimates of informal cross border trade figures. Hence,
12 12 7 T ni d j ¥ +1/4 i1 k 1 j1 12 12 7 ni d j ¥] ------(7) i1 k1 j1
Equation (7) shows the trade estimates from unrecorded/informal transactions with Uganda’s neighbours during the twelve months of monitoring.
Estimation of missing data for un-monitored months
In order to show the magnitude of trade flows for the un-monitored months, estimation is necessary to fill the existing data gaps. Filling the gaps would improve the analytical usefulness of trade data so as to allow easy integration of the figures into BOP and National Accounts Statistics framework. The practice of estimating missing trade data is in consonant with internationally accepted standards by international organizations such as UN, UNECA, World Bank, and IMF. The estimation methods stipulated by these organizations are documented in the book entitled, “Manual on Methods of Estimation of Missing International Trade Data in Africa (UNECA 1995).”
It is necessary to estimate monthly flows that were missed out due to logistical constraints using linear interpolation and extrapolation models.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
21 Interpolation Method
This method estimates intermediate terms of a sequence of which particular terms are known.
Consider the line defined by the two points (X0, Y0) and (X1, Y1), and a third point to be determined (X, Y) lies on this line only if the following relation holds:
(Y1-Y0)/(X1-X0) =(Y-Y0)/(X-X0) ------(8)
Suppose that the value of X is known, but not that of Y, Solving for Y from 8 above
Y = (Y1-Y0) (X-X0)/ (X1-X0) + Y0 ------(9)
Re-arranging (9) becomes
Y = ((X-X0)/ (X1-X0)) Y1 + (1.0-((X-X0)/ (X1-X0))) Y0------(10)
Equation (10) can be rewritten as;
Y = α Y1 + (1.0- α) Y0 ------(11)
Where α =(X- X0)/(X1- X0) ------(12)
Equation (12) is the interpolation factor, while (11) is the linear interpolation model.
Extrapolation Method
The linear projection model is based on the assumption that there are no sudden or dramatic changes occurring on conditions affecting growth during the period under review.
The mathematical formula is thus,
Yt+n = Yt +bn ------(13)
Where Yt+n is the value of the trade flow being projected, n units from time t
Yt is the recent value of the historical data and the starting point of projection b is the average amount of growth or decline per unit of time. n is the number of units of time(e.g. months, weeks, years etc)
To use model (13) above, b is estimated using the formula below.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
22 m b= (Yt-Yt-1)/m ------(14) i1
Where m is the historical interval over which the average growth is calculated
Yt-1 is the level of Y one time period before Yt.
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
23 Appendix II : Leading Informal Exports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011–2015 (US$ Million).
Commodity category Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural products 124.0 184.9 166.6 174.9 146.2 Fish 27.5 37.9 34.0 37.3 44.4 Maize grains 15.6 44.1 36.9 32.8 22.9 Beans 21.2 22.0 19.3 24.2 18.6 Cattle 11.4 17.0 16.3 18.4 9.8 Fruits 4.2 3.9 4.6 6.0 5.8 Eggs 6.4 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.7 Goats 3.3 6.4 7.0 8.2 4.9 Bananas 4.6 6.1 5.0 4.8 4.4 Tomatoes 4.4 5.1 4.8 4.0 4.0 Groundnuts 6.1 7.2 4.2 5.0 3.1 Potatoes irish 1.6 - 3.8 3.5 2.9 Poultry 1.3 2.0 2.3 1.9 2.5 Onions 1.4 3.6 3.9 4.2 2.1 Sorghum grains 2.1 6.2 3.0 2.2 2.1 Sheep 1.0 1.8 2.2 3.2 1.9 Millet grains 3.9 2.3 2.8 2.9 1.8 Vegetables 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Beef 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 Ginger 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 Peas 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.7 Garlic 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 Fish bones - 0.0 0.0 - 0.6 Pigs 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 Cassava 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.3 0.4 Milk 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Others 2.6 7.2 3.4 3.4 2.5 Industrial products 230.4 266.8 253.5 238.0 251.8 Clothes (new & used) 23.6 27.0 32.1 34.2 36.6 Shoes 45.6 49.6 43.3 41.7 34.8 Sandals 10.5 13.7 15.3 23.0 16.4 Timber 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 12.9 Alcohol/spirits - 5.2 3.4 10.3 11.8 Maize flour 10.2 14.2 27.0 15.9 11.6 Wheat flour 6.1 9.7 5.5 2.6 5.2 Salt 2.1 3.4 3.1 4.3 4.9 Motorcycle parts 5.2 6.9 6.6 5.8 4.7 Textile materials 1.8 5.0 1.1 2.7 4.7 Bicycle parts 7.3 8.8 8.2 4.9 4.5 Soda 6.6 8.2 4.9 4.5 4.5 Sacks 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.8 4.1 Bed sheets 4.6 3.4 4.0 3.3 3.8 Bags 1.5 2.6 3.3 3.7 3.8 Cement 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.9 3.7 Blankets 4.1 4.5 4.6 3.9 3.5 Sugar 3.1 3.6 2.5 3.8 3.3 Suit cases 3.0 4.0 2.2 4.3 2.9 Mattresses 3.6 4.3 3.2 3.1 2.6 Soap 2.0 2.6 1.8 1.2 2.4 Petroleum jelly 2.2 2.1 1.6 2.3 2.4 Petrol 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.8 2.3 Vehicle parts 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.0 Tea leaves 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.9 Others 80.1 79.2 71.5 53.0 60.8 Other products 1.4 2.0 1.2 1.6 1.1 Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
24 Salt 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 Grass hoppers 0.1 - - - 0.2 Sand 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Fire wood 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 Stones 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 Forage 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pine sticks - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Burnt oil - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scrap - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cast iron - - 0.1 0.0 0.0 Water 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
25 Appendix III: Leading Informal Imports by Commodity Category and Value, 2011– 2015 (US$ Million) Commodity category Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agricultural products 26.0 24.9 24.2 34.7 31.2 Rice 3.0 5.3 8.3 12.2 7.5 Coffee 7.6 6.2 6.5 8.0 5.0 Groundnuts 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.9 3.1 Beans 3.3 3.5 2.1 1.9 2.6 Cassava 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.4 2.4 Bananas 2.8 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.2 Onions 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 1.7 Fruits 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.2 Maize grains 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.2 Sorghum grains 0.2 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 Potatoes irish 0.6 - 0.4 0.7 0.5 Fish 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 Peas 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 Soya beans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Vegetables 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 Tobacco 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Honey 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 Millet grains 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 Cocoa beans 0.2 - 0.2 1.9 0.2 Poultry 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Beef 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 Ginger 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Tomatoes 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Milk 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Hides & skins 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Others 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 Industrial products 27.8 28.0 29.2 30.7 32.6 Wheat flour 2.1 2.0 3.2 6.2 6.1 Cooking oil 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.4 Salt 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5 2.3 Palm oil 1.8 2.5 2.7 2.1 2.2 Yeast 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 Cement 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.5 Clothes (new & used) 2.5 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.4 Juice 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 Perfumes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 Fertilizers 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 Petroleum jelly 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 Soap 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.1 0.5 Petrol 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 Milk 0.6 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 Sweets 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 Shoes 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 Sacks 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 Spaghetti 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 Brooms 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 Seeds 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 Cassava flour 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 Nails 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 Soda 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 Baking powder 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.2 Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
26 Basins 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.4 0.2 Others 10.8 10.0 8.9 8.9 7.2 Other products 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 Cast iron - - 0.2 0.2 0.3 Residues 0.0 - 0.0 - 0.1 Fire wood 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 Scrap - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 Burnt oil - - 0.0 0.0 0.0 Water 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Stones 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Husks 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sand 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Salt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Organic manure - - - - 0.0 Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
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Appendix IV: Informal Export Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 (US$ Millions). Country/Border Station Year Percentage Share 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Burundi 12.6 15.3 15.1 15.0 1.9 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.5 Katuna 12.6 15.3 15.1 15.0 1.9 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 0.5 Dr Congo 126.1 157.9 135.0 139.5 182.1 35.4 34.8 32.0 33.6 45.6 Bunagana 8.2 6.7 4.9 8.2 9.5 2.3 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.4 Goli 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 Ishasha River 2.9 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 Mpondwe 77.8 102.4 95.9 96.2 118.4 21.9 22.6 22.8 23.2 29.7 Ntoroko 9.4 9.4 7.4 6.9 13.6 2.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 3.4 Odramachaku 14.5 15.7 9.9 11.1 12.5 4.1 3.5 2.4 2.7 3.1 Oraba 0.1 - - 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 Paidha 6.9 15.6 8.9 7.6 8.6 1.9 3.4 2.1 1.8 2.2 Vvura 4.3 5.6 5.1 6.0 5.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.3 Katuna 7.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 Cyanika 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 Kenya 69.5 80.0 69.7 92.9 96.4 19.5 17.6 16.5 22.4 24.2 Busia 59.9 68.5 59.7 82.8 69.9 16.8 15.1 14.2 20.0 17.5 Lwakhakha 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 Malaba 5.1 7.5 6.7 6.7 9.6 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.6 2.4 Sono 0.2 0.1 - - 0.1 0.0 - - 0.0 Suam River 2.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 15.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 3.9 Rwanda 35.1 38.1 27.9 24.5 21.8 9.9 8.4 6.6 5.9 5.4 Cyanika 6.7 7.4 4.0 4.7 3.8 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.1 0.9 Katuna 26.2 30.1 23.0 17.1 15.8 7.4 6.6 5.5 4.1 4.0 Mirama Hills 2.2 0.6 0.9 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 Sudan 83.7 115.1 130.8 119.5 78.8 23.5 25.4 31.1 28.8 19.7 Elegu/Bibia 65.3 86.5 106.1 96.3 64.0 18.4 19.1 25.2 23.2 16.0 Oraba 18.4 28.6 24.8 23.1 14.8 5.2 6.3 5.9 5.6 3.7 Tanzania 28.8 47.5 42.8 23.3 18.2 8.1 10.5 10.2 5.6 4.6 Kikagati 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 Mutukula 27.6 46.2 41.9 21.7 16.8 7.8 10.2 9.9 5.2 4.2 Bugango 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 Grand Total 355.8 453.7 421.3 414.6 399.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
28 Appendix V: Informal Import Values by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 (US$ Millions). Country/Border Station Year Percentage Share 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DR Congo 21.4 20.3 17.7 21.3 18.3 39.7 38.3 33.0 32.4 28.4 Bunagana 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.7 3.1 2.8 3.6 1.8 1.0 4.8 Goli 1.5 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.5 2.8 1.5 0.6 1.6 0.8 Ishasha River 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 Mpondwe 9.0 9.2 9.0 11.8 6.3 16.7 17.4 16.7 17.9 9.9 Ntoroko 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.6 Odramachaku 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.9 5.0 3.4 2.6 1.7 3.0 Oraba ------0.0 Paidha 3.8 4.6 4.0 5.3 4.3 7.1 8.7 7.5 8.0 6.7 Vvura 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 3.7 2.8 2.9 1.8 2.3 Kenya 27.1 24.5 26.5 30.8 31.9 50.3 46.2 49.4 46.7 49.6 Busia 18.9 15.9 18.2 22.5 18.7 35.1 30.0 34.0 34.1 29.1 Lwakhakha 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.0 Malaba 4.3 4.9 5.6 5.6 8.4 8.0 9.2 10.5 8.4 13.1 Sono 0.6 0.4 - - - 1.1 0.8 - - - Suam River 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.4 2.8 3.6 2.4 1.9 5.4 Rwanda 1.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.2 3.0 5.8 4.7 3.4 1.8 Cyanika 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.5 2.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 Katuna 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.7 1.1 3.0 3.6 2.4 1.1 Mirama Hills 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 Sudan 1.4 3.2 5.6 3.8 2.3 2.6 6.0 10.4 5.8 3.5 Elegu/Bibia 1.2 2.9 5.2 3.1 2.1 2.2 5.5 9.7 4.7 3.3 Oraba 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.2 Tanzania 2.4 1.9 1.3 7.7 10.7 4.5 3.6 2.5 11.7 16.6 Kikagati 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.4 Mutukula 2.1 1.4 0.7 7.5 10.2 3.9 2.6 1.3 11.4 15.9 Bugango 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 Grand Total 53.9 53.0 53.7 65.8 64.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
29 Appendix VI: Informal Trade by Country/Border Station, 2011-2015 - (US$ Millions)
Country/Border Station Exports Imports 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Burundi 12.6 15.3 15.1 15.0 1.9 0 0 - - Katuna 12.6 15.3 15.1 15.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 - - DR Congo 126.1 157.9 135.0 139.5 182.1 21.4 20.3 17.7 21.3 18.3 Bunagana 8.2 6.7 4.9 8.2 9.5 1.5 1.9 1.0 0.7 3.1 Goli 2.1 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 1.1 0.5 Ishasha River 2.9 1.8 2.1 2.7 3.7 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 Mpondwe 77.8 102.4 95.9 96.2 118.4 9.0 9.2 9.0 11.8 6.3 Ntoroko 9.4 9.4 7.4 6.9 13.6 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 Odramachaku 14.5 15.7 9.9 11.1 12.5 2.7 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.9 Oraba - 0.1 ------Paidha 6.9 15.6 8.9 7.6 8.6 3.8 4.6 4.0 5.3 4.3 Vvura 4.3 5.6 5.1 6.0 5.2 2.0 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.5 Katuna - - - - 7.2 - - Cyanika - - - - 1.8 - - - Kenya 69.5 79.9 69.7 92.9 96.4 27.1 24.5 26.5 30.8 31.9 Busia 59.9 68.5 59.7 82.8 69.9 18.9 15.9 18.2 22.5 18.7 Lwakhakha 1.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 Malaba 5.1 7.5 6.7 6.7 9.6 4.3 4.9 5.6 5.6 8.4 Sono 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 Suam River 2.7 2.9 2.2 2.5 15.5 1.5 1.9 1.3 1.3 3.4 Rwanda 35.1 38.1 27.9 24.5 21.8 1.6 3.1 2.5 2.2 1.2 Cyanika 6.7 7.4 4.0 4.7 3.8 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 Katuna 26.2 30.1 23.0 17.1 15.8 0.6 1.6 2.0 1.6 0.7 Mirama Hills 2.2 0.6 0.9 2.7 2.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 South Sudan 83.7 115.1 130.8 119.5 78.8 1.4 3.2 5.6 3.8 2.3 Elegu/Bibia 65.3 86.5 106.1 96.3 64.0 1.2 2.9 5.2 3.1 2.1 Oraba 18.4 28.6 24.8 23.1 14.8 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 Tanzania 28.8 47.5 42.8 23.3 18.2 2.4 1.9 1.3 7.7 10.7 Kikagati 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 Mutukula 27.6 46.2 41.9 21.7 16.8 2.1 1.4 0.7 7.5 10.2 Bugango 0.4 0.3 Grand Total 355.8 453.8 421.3 414.6 399.1 53.9 53.0 53.7 65.8 64.3 Source: UBOS & BOU
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
30 Appendix VII: ICBT Survey Team 2015 Co-ordinators NO. Name 1 Dr Kenneth Egesa 2 Dr. Chris N. Mukiza 3 Mr. Emmanuel Ssemambo 4 Mr. John Mayende 5 Mr. Peter Kagumya
Report writing 1 Dr. Chris N. Mukiza 2 Dr. Kenneth Egesa 3 Mr. John Mayende 4 Mr. Emmanuel Ssemambo 5 Mrs. Aliziki Lubega 6 Mr. Peter Kagumya 7 Mr. Christopher Wabwire Supervisors 1 Mr. Edward Twinomugisha 2 Mr. Christopher Wabwire 3 Mr. Theophillus Onesmus Musiimenta 4 Mrs. Olivia Rukundo 5 Mr. Albert Rubombora 6 Mrs. Aliziki Lubega 7 Mrs. Margaret B. Makanga 8 Ms. Yoyeta Jane Magoola Data Editors 1 Mr. Vincent Kiyemba 2 Ms. Racheal Nannon 3 Ms. Lydia Nyirabasabose 4 Ms. Farida Yapsoyekwo 5 Ms. Diana M. Nigesa Data Entrants 1 Ms. Winfred Nante 2 Ms. Prossy. Nambalirwa 3 Ms. Rachael Wambi 4 Ms. Irene Tibanganya 5 Ms. Aisha Byogero 6 Ms. Irene Nantalaga
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Enumerators/Data collectors No. Enumerators 2015 No. Enumerators 2015 1 Mr. C. K. Mutakirwa 32 Mr. Pius Suuna 2 Ms Sarah Kamikazi 33 Mr. Haruna Nyanzi 3 Mr. Grace Mereyankya 34 Ms. Sandra Leku 4 Ms. Flominah Natukunda Murungi 35 Mr. Oleg Zachariah Ssembajja 5 Ms. Irene Naliaka 36 Mr. Ambrose Kibuuka Wamanyi 6 Mr. Patrick Wamala Nsubuga 37 Mr. Kenneth Muhimbo 7 Mr. Peter Katongole 38 Mrs. Esther Namwaki 8 Ms. Sharon Kuka Chemutai 39 Ms. Lydia Arago 9 Ms. Racheal Kabagahi 40 Ms. Patricia Ngamita 10 Ms. Doreen Namale 41 Mr. Wilfred Kojjo Oloki 11 Ms. Catherine Abalo 42 Mr. R Wasike 12 Mr. Rouland Lutwama 43 Mr. Robert Walimbwa 13 Ms. Elizabeth Mbonye 44 Mr. Stephen Wansajja 14 Ms. Florence Musinguzi 45 Mr. Abduraof Mwidu 15 Ms. Hadijah Ssali 46 Mr. Anthony Kibalama 16 Ms. Dorothy Ojirot 47 Mr. Patrick Katusabe 17 Ms. Elizabeth Nyirantwari 48 Ms. Zainab Omar 18 Mr. Ambrose Chalujumba 49 Ms. Madinah Ddungu 19 Ms. Jackline Lunyolo 50 Ms. Florence Musinguzi 20 Ms. Norah Nabyonga 51 Mr. Joshua Dusenge 21 Ms. J Arinanye 52 Ms. Sarah Nakabugo 22 Ms. Ruth Asekenye 53 Mr. Ivan Kabuusu 23 Mr. Moses Olwenyi 54 Ms. Yvonne Komugisha 24 Mr. Peter Tushabe 55 Mr. David Aggrey Kaziba 25 Ms. Ruth Ssentuya 56 Mr. Ponsiano Ssekandi 26 Mr. Mark Kwizera 57 Mr. Fred Nguni 27 Mr. Seston Atwiine 58 Mr. Drake Kizito 28 Mr. Peter M. Kaguliro 59 Ms. Doreen Atuhaire 29 Ms. Daphine Katabira 60 Mr. Nelson A. Habumugisha 30 Ms. Christine Aanyu 61 Mr. Gavah Ahereza 31 Mr. Jonathan Kato Mwanje
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
32 Appendix IVIII : Survey Instruments
A: Vehicle Form Serial No: BANK OF UGANDA UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS SHEET FOR CAPTURING MERCHANDISE TRADE DATA FOR VEHICLES DATE OF RECORDING:………/…………/……… DAY:……………………………………………….. TIME OF RECORDING :……………………………………… VEHICLE REG. NO:…………………………………. COUNTRY CODE:……………………….. BORDER POST:……………………………………. VEHICLE TYPE:…………………………………… URA ASSESSMENT NO: …………………………………….. Transport Cost for Cargo :…………………………… VEHICLE TONNAGE…………………………………. Town of Origin:………………………………………. Town of Destination …………………………………… FLOW: EXPORT IMPORT TRANSIT: YES NO ITEM NAME UNIT QTY IN PACKAGING QTY ON TRUCK QTY DECLARED ICBT QTY VALUE DECLARED TO PRICE CODE TO URA URA
Enumerator's Name………………………………………………… Supervisor's Name……………………………………. SIGNATURE…………………………………………………………………. SIGNATURE…………………………………………………. DATE………………. Note: In the column indicated Quantity in Packaging you are required to indicate the main packing of the commodity and weight/capacity (e.g: 10 cartons each 12 ltrs Or 20 bags each 50kg) UNIT CODES COUNTRY CODES 1- Kgs 7- Pieces 01- DR Congo 2- Litres 8- Bars 02- Tanzania 3- Metres 9-Rolls 03- Kenya 4- Numbers 10- Sets 04- Rwanda 5- Dozens 12- Tins 05- Sudan 6- Pairs 13- Others (Specify) 06- Burundi
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
33 B: Summary Form A Serial No: BANK OF UGANDA UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS Sheet For Summarising Daily Records (To be filled in by Enumerator and Counter-signed by the Supervisor)
Border Post:………………………………………………………………… Est. Domestic Country of Country of HS Code (Office) Item (Name) Quantity Unit Code Destination code Destination code Mode of Transport Price per Unit (Exports (Imports)
Name and Signature of Enumerator's Name………………………………………………… Date……………………/20…. Day of the week (e.g Mon….) Name and Signature of Supervisor…………………………………………………………………. Date and Time of Checking..……………………………………….
UNIT CODES COUNTRY CODES Mode of Transport Code 1- Kgs 7- Pieces 01- DR Congo 01-Head/Hand 2- Litres 8- Bars 02- Tanzania 02-Bicycle 3- Metres 9-Rolls 03- Kenya 03-Push cart 4- Numbers 10- Sets 04- Rwanda 04-Vehicle 5- Dozens 12- Tins 05- Sudan 05-Boat/canoe 6- Pairs 13- Others (Specify) 06- Burundi 06-Wheel Chair Other (Specify)
Informal Cross Border Trade Report 2015
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