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Home , Berkshire, Portsmouth, Southampton, West Berkshire

Geography and population Introduction West makes up over half of the geographical area of the county of Berkshire - covering an area of 272 square miles. It lies on the western fringe of the South East region, centrally located, at a crossroads where the South East meets the South West and where the south coast comes up to meet the southern . As such, the district lies at the convergence of two key road arteries in the south – the M4 and the A34. Both provide direct road links in all directions, with all urban centres in southern (, Reading, , , , , ) within an hour’s drive. The district is primarily made up of chalk , loosely centred along the lower reaches of the , which rises in and flows through to join the at Reading. The flat floodplain of this river is bordered by fairly steep slopes on each side. Most people within the district live within this valley. To the south, the land rises steeply to line of scarps which form the border with . The majority of the district however, lies to the north of the Kennet where the land rises to the Berkshire and Marlborough Downs. This is an area of gently rolling, chalk Downlands, classified as part of the North Downs Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB); and includes parts of all the five National Character areas. The district of is made up of 30 Wards, the map below (fig 2) shows how these are organised across the district.

Facts, Figures, Trends

Figure 1: West Berkshire geography

Figure 2: West Berkshire wards

The (2011) census showed West Berkshire with a population of just under 154,000. 70% (around 108,000) of people live in settlements along the Kennet Valley and in the suburban areas just to the west of Reading borough. The largest in the district is Newbury / , where around 67,000 (44%) of West Berkshire residents live. 16% of residents live in the suburban area adjoining Reading borough. Other significant towns in the district are with just under 6,000 residents and with a population of just under 3,000. Population data comes from the Office for National Statistics and is based on the number of people counted as part of the Census. An estimate of the number of people living in the area, their age, and their gender is produced annually the most recent being the mid-2012 estimates.

The total estimated population of West Berkshire in 2012 was 154,486.

Figure 3: Population density , by Lower Super Output Area, 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Table 1: Population density, West Berkshire, 2011

Town / area Population Newbury 40,537 Thatcham 25,267 Suburban area adjoining Reading borough 25,878 Hungerford 5,767 Theale 2,835 West Berkshire 153,822 Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

The remainder of the population are dispersed in small rural settlements across the district. West Berkshire has one of the most dispersed populations in the South East with 253 people per hectare. The graph below shows the distribution of population across individual wards within the district. Calcot and Birch Copse, in the suburban area to the east of the district, are the largest wards in West Berkshire with just under 9,000 and 8,000 people respectively. The smallest wards represent around 3,000 people. Figure 3

Figure 4: Ward population, West Berkshire, 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Age profile of West Berkshire The average age of people in England and in 2011 is 39.4 years: slightly higher in the South East at 40.0 years of age. West Berkshire’s average age is exactly the same as nationally at 39.4 years. The chart below plots the overall population profile for West Berkshire compared to that for the South East.

Figure 5: West Berkshire Population Profile

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Figure 6:West West BerkshireBerkshire Population population Structure, structure 2012 2012 West Berkshire Males West Berkshire Females England Females England Males

85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4

5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% Percentage of total population Source: Office for National Statistics mid-year population estimates

Table 2: Age profile within West Berkshire

West West England Berkshire Berkshire Berkshire South and Wales Age (Number) (%) (%) East(%) (%) 0 - 4 10,065 7% 7% 6% 6% 5 - 9 9,017 6% 6% 6% 6% 0-9 19,082 12% 13% 12% 12% 10 - 14 9,914 6% 6% 6% 6% 15 - 19 9,633 6% 6% 6% 6% 0-19 38,629 25% 26% 24% 24% 20 - 24 7,341 5% 6% 6% 7% 25 - 29 8,506 6% 7% 6% 7% 30 - 34 9,306 6% 8% 6% 7% 20-34 25,153 16% 21% 19% 20% 35 - 39 11,109 7% 8% 7% 7% 40 - 44 12,595 8% 8% 7% 7% 45 - 49 12,486 8% 7% 8% 7% 50 - 54 10,965 7% 6% 7% 6% 55 - 59 9,506 6% 5% 6% 6% 60 - 64 9,753 6% 5% 6% 6% 35-64 66,414 43% 40% 40% 39% 65 - 69 7,406 5% 4% 5% 5% 70 - 74 5,543 4% 3% 4% 4% 75 - 79 4,337 3% 3% 3% 3% 80 - 84 3,253 2% 2% 3% 2% 85 - 89 2,065 1% 1% 2% 1% 90 - 94 795 1% < 1% 1% 1% 95 - 99 204 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 100 and over 23 < 1% < 1% < 1% < 1% 65+ 23,626 15% 13% 17% 16% 85+ 3,087 2% 2% 3% 2% Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics The age distribution of people across the district is not universal and there is a degree of concentration of people in particular age groups in different parts of the district. The graph (fig 5) and table 3 below shows the proportion of people across all wards in West Berkshire in different age groups, ranked by wards’ average (or median) age.

Figure 7: Age Distribution by Ward, West Berkshire, 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Table 3: Age distribution by ward, 2011 20- 35- Mean Ward Pop’n 0-4 0-9 0-19 65+ 85+ 34 64 age Thatcham N. 5,870 8% 15% 29% 17% 43% 10% 1% 35.5 2,890 7% 15% 33% 14% 40% 13% 1% 35.9 5,682 8% 14% 27% 19% 42% 11% 1% 36.3 Clay Hill 6,827 8% 14% 25% 24% 39% 12% 1% 36.4 Thatcham S. & Crookham 6,974 9% 15% 26% 20% 43% 11% 1% 36.6 3,458 5% 11% 36% 9% 40% 15% 2% 37.5 Calcot 8,785 7% 12% 25% 19% 44% 12% 1% 37.8 6,730 6% 12% 33% 11% 42% 14% 2% 37.9 Thatcham 6,390 W. 6% 12% 25% 19% 44% 12% 1% 38.2 Thatcham C. 6,033 7% 13% 24% 20% 42% 14% 2% 38.3 Theale 2,835 7% 13% 24% 19% 42% 14% 2% 38.6 5,955 7% 13% 27% 15% 44% 14% 2% 38.7 Compton 3,164 6% 13% 27% 14% 46% 13% 1% 38.7 Victoria 4,852 7% 10% 16% 34% 36% 15% 3% 38.9 2,953 7% 14% 26% 14% 46% 15% 1% 39.4 WEST BERKSHIRE 153,822 7% 12% 25% 16% 43% 15% 2% 39.4 Northcroft 5,354 7% 12% 21% 22% 41% 16% 3% 40.0 Downlands 3,115 5% 12% 25% 11% 49% 14% 1% 40.4 Mortimer 5,732 7% 14% 26% 13% 43% 18% 2% 40.5 Birch Copse 7,789 5% 11% 24% 14% 45% 16% 1% 40.6 Falkland 6,361 6% 12% 25% 13% 44% 18% 2% 41.2 2,978 6% 11% 27% 13% 41% 20% 3% 41.2 5,034 6% 13% 23% 12% 48% 16% 2% 41.5 Basildon 3,103 5% 12% 25% 10% 48% 17% 2% 41.6 Valley 5,575 6% 12% 22% 15% 45% 18% 2% 41.6 Westwood 2,756 5% 12% 25% 13% 43% 20% 1% 41.6 6,548 5% 11% 22% 14% 47% 17% 1% 41.7 St Johns 5,799 6% 11% 22% 17% 41% 20% 4% 42.0 Hungerford 5,767 7% 11% 21% 16% 44% 20% 4% 42.4 Speen 5,662 7% 12% 22% 14% 42% 21% 4% 42.8 2,851 4% 10% 22% 11% 47% 19% 2% 43.1 Source: Census 2011, ONS

The population of West Berkshire has grown by 6% over the last decade (or just over 9,000 people). This compares with an 8% increase across Berkshire as a whole. However, this county-wide figure is skewed slightly by the increase in population in (18%). If Slough was removed from the Berkshire total, then the rate of increase would fall to 6%.

West Berkshire’s population growth is around 1.5 percentage points below that for the South East more generally, and nationally.

Table 4: Population Change, Berkshire, 2001 to 2011 Change in population 2011 Number Percent Forest 113,200 +3,583 +3.3% Reading 155,700 +12,604 +8.8% RB of Windsor and 144,600 +10,974 +8.2% Slough 140,200 +21,133 +17.7% West Berkshire 153,800 +9,317 +6.4% 154,400 +4,171 +2.8% Berkshire 861,900 +61,782 +7.7%

South East 8,634,800 +634,250 +7.9% England & Wales 56,075,900 +4,033,984 +7.8% Source: Census 2011, ONS

The graph below shows the change in population between 2001 and 2011, by ward. Thatcham South has seen by far the largest growth (37%), as a result of the houses built on the Kennet Heath estate. More significant increases in population (over 10%) are also evident in Victoria in central Newbury, Clay Hill, Greenham, Bucklebury and Mortimer.

At the other end of the spectrum, the graph shows areas which have seen a decline in population notably in the suburban area in the east of the district: Birch Copse, Westwood and Calcot and a marginal fall in population in central Thatcham.

Figure 8: Percentage population change by ward, 2001 to 2011

Changing age profile over the last decade The graph below shows the population pyramid for West Berkshire for 2011 (shaded bars), compared with that for 2001 (outline). Figure 9: Percent of total population in each age band, 2001 to 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

This shows the relative size of different age bands in relation to one another – i.e. how the proportion of people in each age group has changed (rather than absolute numbers have shrunk or grown) – over the decade up to 2011.

Table 5: Change in Population by age in West Berkshire, 2001-11 South Eng & West Berkshire Berkshire East Wales Pop’n Change Change Change Change Change Age 2011 (nos) (%) (%) (%) (%) 0-4 10,065 1,259 14% 22% 13% 13% 5-9 9,017 -481 -5% 1% -4% -5% 0-9 19,082 778 4% 11% 4% 4% 10-14 9,914 133 1% -1% -1% -5% 15-19 9,633 477 5% 6% 12% 10% 0-19 38,629 1,388 4% 7% 5% 3% 20-24 7,341 287 4% 2% 16% 22% 25-29 8,506 -832 -9% -1% 6% 12% 30-34 9,306 -2,283 -20% -2% -9% -8% 20-34 25,153 -2,828 -10% -1% 3% 7% 35-39 11,109 -1,181 -10% -4% -9% -9% 40-44 12,595 1,244 11% 12% 12% 12% 45-49 12,486 2,356 23% 24% 26% 24% 50-54 10,965 -20 0% 2% 0% 0% 55-59 9,506 751 9% 9% 6% 7% 60-64 9,753 3,161 48% 33% 39% 33% 35-64 66,414 6,311 11% 11% 10% 10% 65-69 7,406 1,801 32% 17% 21% 17% 70-74 5,543 802 17% 7% 7% 5% 75-79 4,337 482 13% 9% 4% 1% 80-84 3,253 599 23% 20% 14% 14% 85-89 2,065 547 36% 26% 21% 22% 90-94 795 162 26% 33% 27% 26% 95-99 204 77 61% 54% 36% 36% 100+ 23 2 10% 41% 40% 31% 65+ 23,626 4,472 23% 15% 13% 11% 85+ 3,087 788 34% 29% 24% 24% All 153,822 9,343 6% 8% 8% 8% Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics The number of 0-9 year olds has increased at about the same rate as elsewhere at around 4% (the Berkshire-wide figure is skewed by the rapid growth in population in Slough). Similarly, the increase in numbers of people aged 0-19 is broadly in line with that seen regionally. More specifically, we have seen a more significant increase in pre-school aged children (14%), reflecting a national trend and suggesting a mini ‘baby boom’, although the numbers of 5-9 year olds has shrunk slightly. Put together, this means there are just short of 1,400 more people aged 0-19 living in the district compared to 2001. The numbers of younger people of working age (20-34) has fallen in absolute terms by nearly 3,000 between 2001 and 2011, representing a 10% reduction. This is not reflected elsewhere however, which has seen a proportionate increase in populations of this age. The absolute number of people aged over 65 has increased by almost a quarter between 2001 and 2011, noticeably more acute than that seen across the region more generally.

Table 6: Population change by broad age bands, 2001 to 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

This graph plots this data into broader age groups to show the absolute change in broad age groups between 2001 and 2011, against the proportionate change for West Berkshire and the South East.

The first bar shows the increase in the number of people aged 0-19 between 2001 and 2011 in West Berkshire. This represents a 4% increase in the number of people of this age group (green line), compared to a regional average of a 5% increase (red line).

Perhaps more significantly, the second bar shows the decline in the number of people aged 20-39 living in West Berkshire of 10%. The South East as a whole saw a decline of 1%.

The last decade has seen the number of people of older working ages (i.e. 40-64) increase by some 7,500 (or 16%). This is broadly in line with the regional average of 15%.

However, the number of people aged over 65 has risen by just under 4,500 (or 23%). This compares with a 13% increase in the South East more generally.

The graph below compares the rate of change in each of the broad age bands, across Berkshire more generally. This shows a marked difference in the changing populations between Reading and Slough, on the one hand, and Bracknell, Windsor and Maidenhead, Wokingham and West Berkshire on the other. Wokingham has seen the largest swings in population with a 14% fall in the number of 20-39 years, but a 32% increase in the number of people aged over 65.

Figure 10: Comparative Change in Broad age groups, 2001 to 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Population projections over the next decade The latest (2011) population projections by the Office for National Statistics, in predicting population growth across the country, estimate the population of West Berkshire to be 170,100 by 2021 – an increase of some 10%. This compares with an average increase in population across the South East of 9.3%.

Changes in population will not be universal across the age bands. Most graphically, the population pyramid below shows how the age profile of West Berkshire is expected to change over the next decade. The solid outline shows West Berkshire’s population profile in 2011, whilst the shaded area represents district’s new population profile in 2021.

Noticeable, is that, almost without exception, the reduction in the relative size of age groups under the age of 65. The district’s ‘waist band’ remains reflecting a significant number of people leaving the district at around 20 years of age, but then returning over the proceeding two decades.

Figure 11: Projected population age profile for West Berkshire, 2011-2021

Source: ONS, Interim 2011 sub-national population projections

Figure 12: Projected change in population by age, 2011- 2021

South West Berkshire Berkshire East England Change Change Change Change Change Pop’n in pop’n in pop’n in pop’n in pop’n in pop’n 2021 (nos) (%) (%) (%) (%) 0-4 10,516 418 4% 5% 6% 9% 5-9 11,961 2,911 32% 27% 24% 23% 0-9 22,477 3,329 17% 15% 15% 16% 10-14 11,797 1,851 19% 19% 11% 9% 15-19 9,509 -304 -3% 1% -6% -8% 0-19 43,783 4,876 13% 13% 8% 8% 20-24 6,221 -1,060 -15% 0% -4% -4% 25-29 8,499 114 1% 6% 7% 9% 30-34 10,267 941 10% 7% 11% 16% 20-34 24,986 -6 0% 4% 5% 7% 35-39 11,314 342 3% 6% 5% 9% 40-44 11,613 -959 -8% 0% -8% -8% 45-49 11,688 -782 -6% -2% -9% -10% 50-54 12,505 1,460 13% 15% 13% 11% 55-59 12,070 2,547 27% 29% 30% 26% 60-64 10,201 417 4% 8% 3% 2% 35-64 69,390 3,024 5% 8% 4% 4% 65-69 8,401 833 11% 12% 7% 7% 70-74 8,497 2,992 54% 41% 43% 37% 75-79 6,386 2,009 46% 29% 32% 26% 80-84 4,258 955 29% 24% 19% 18% 85-89 2,757 662 32% 36% 28% 26% 90+ 1,664 629 61% 75% 63% 62% 65+ 31,963 8,080 34% 29% 26% 24% 85+ 4,421 1,291 41% 50% 40% 39% All 170,123 15,975 10% 11% 9% 9% Source: Interim 2011 sub-national population projections, Office for National Statistics

This table estimates the number of 0-9 year olds living in West Berkshire to have grown by 3,300 by 2021 (or 17%). This compares to a similar expected growth across the South East of around 15%. The numbers of 10-19 year olds is anticipated to have increased by around 1,500 (or 8%), which is in line with the projected growth rate for the district as a whole. At the other end of the age spectrum, the figures show an anticipated growth in the over 65 population of 34% (or 8,000 people) compared to 26% regionally. Breaking this down, the most significant growth is in the oldest age groups (75+).

Figure 13: Comparative change in broad age groups, 2001 to 2011

Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

An alternative system that projects the number and percentage of older people into the future is POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information System). This system was originally developed by the Institute of Public Care (IPC) for the Care Services Efficiency Delivery Programme (CSED). The system is now provided solely by the Institute of Public Care on licence from the Department of Health. This system is developed for use by local authority planners and commissioners of social care provision in England, together with providers. It is a programme designed to help explore the possible impact that demography and certain conditions may have on populations aged 65 and over.

The table below shows a comparison with the South East and in all age groups over 65, apart from the over 90s West Berkshire is predicted to have higher percentages of all the older age groups (shown in pink). The numbers may not sum due to rounding.

Table 7: Projected population, West Berkshire, 2012 to 2020

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 South East: People aged 65-69 0 6% 7% -2% -4% West Berkshire: People aged 65-69 0 7% 8% 0% -1% % West Berkshire: People aged 65-69 8,400 9,000 9,100 8,400 8,300 number.

South East: People aged 70-74 0 8% 19% 37% 41% West Berkshire: People aged 70-74 0 11% 25% 46% 50% % West Berkshire: People aged 70-74 5,600 6,200 7,000 8,200 8,400 number.

South East: People aged 75-79 0 5% 6% 12% 23% West Berkshire: People aged 75-79 0 7% 11% 18% 33% % West Berkshire: People aged 75-79 4,500 4,800 5,000 5,300 6,000 number.

South East: People aged 80-84 0 2% 6% 11% 16% West Berkshire: People aged 80-84 0 6% 9% 18% 24% % West Berkshire: People aged 80-84 3,400 3,600 3,700 4,000 4,200 number.

South East: People aged 85-89 0 4% 11% 18% 23% West Berkshire: People aged 85-89 0 0 14% 19% 29% % 2,100 2,100 2,400 2,500 2,700

South East: People aged 90 and 0 11% 20% 31% 45% over West Berkshire: People aged 90 9% 18% 27% 45% and > % West Berkshire: People aged 90 and > number. 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,600

6% 11% 15% 19% South East: Total population 65 and > West Berkshire: Total population 65 7% 14% 19% 24% and > % West Berkshire: Total population 65 25,100 26,900 28,500 29,800 31,200 and > number. Source: Census 2011, Office for National Statistics

Recommendations for consideration by other key organisations such as: CCG’s, General Practices, Local Authority department e.g housing and other providers. The significant amount of rurality within West Berkshire has considerable implications for the commissioning of services for its residents. Access to services will be a challenge in very rural wards requiring outreach or transport solutions. Those people who do not have access to cars rely on public transport.

The existence of a floodplain in West Berkshire has lead to flooding over many years. For further details visit http://www.westberks.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=16930 The proportion of people in the older working age groups (35-64) is higher than the national average (43% of the total population compared to 39% nationally). West Berkshire has a marginally smaller proportion of people aged over 65 than compared to the South East or England and Wales.

Wards with more than 20% (1 in 5) of its population of retirement age are Speen, St Johns, Westwood, Hungerford and Aldermaston. There will be a requirement to commission adequate services for older people and people with long term conditions. It will be important to also ensure that older people are not socially isolated due to age, poor health or rurality.

The ‘youngest’ wards in West Berkshire are Thatcham North and Chieveley, with an average age of less than 36 years. Those wards with the highest percentage of 0-9 year olds are Thatcham North, Chieveley, Thatcham South and Crookham (15%) plus Greenham, Clayhill, Mortimer and Sulhampstead (14%). These areas will need to have adequate services for this younger age group.

The predicted increase in the proportion of the population who are over 65 in the next 10 years will have significant implications for West Berkshire in the commissioning of health and social care services. There are likely to be more people with long term conditions including diabetes, heart failure and dementia. The importance of keeping the aging population healthy and independent is paramount. This section links to the following sections in the JSNA: Ward profiles References http://www.poppi.org.uk/index.php?pageNo=354

Name and contact details of author: Lesley Wyman, Head of Public Health and Wellbeing,