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Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018

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Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Analyst: - Abhilasha Satale (022)-67141435 Associate: - Richa Singh (022)-67141444 Initiating Coverage@ Dalal & Broacha IEX is the largest exchange for the trading of a range of electricity products in BUY India. IEX will be key beneficiary of rising short term market in India supported by current demand-supply situation. Within short term market exchanges will gain Current Price 1593 market share from current 3.5%. IEX has 98% market share in power exchanges. Target Price 2025 Strong business moat, large opportunity size and solid financials with high ROE Upside/Downside 27% and FCFs will continue to command premium. We recommend ‘BUY’ with DCF 52 Week Range based target price of Rs2025. 1678/1405 IEX: beneficiary of rising short term market: India’s peak demand is 169GW while Key Share Data base demand is 135GW. With installed capacity of 360GW oversupply situation is Market M M Market Cap (Rs.bn) 48.3 likely to persist over medium term in power sector. Most efficient procurement Market Cap (US$ mn) 721 for distribution companies is to procure base demand through PPAs and peak demand through short term market at much competitive price therefore, No of o/s shares (mn) 30.3 reducing losses. As per CRISIL short term power volumes are likely to increase Face Value 10 from current 10% of total short term market to 20% by 2022. IEX is likely to be MonthlyAvg. major beneficiary of increasing market size. vol(BSE+NSE) Nos’000 5200 Exchanges to gain market share: Currently exchanges contribute 35% of total BSE Code 540750 power traded through short term market. However, inherent advantages of NSE Code IEX exchanges over other modes like transparency, price discovery, reliability and Bloomberg IEX:IN flexibility have improved contribution of exchanges to total short term power market. Exchanges share in total market is likely to increase to 50% by 2022. As IEX has 98% market share in power exchanges we expect trading volumes at IEX Price performance to increase at a CAGR of 18%. Future potential products to add value: IEX introduced products like RECs and IEX Sensex Escerts which will add to its topline. Both products contributed 2% in FY18. As gas exchange and power exchange has lot of synergies like power is transmitted 120 through the transmission line; gas is transmitted through the pipeline, IEX is 110 vouching to launch gas exchange. It is seeking other regulatory approvals for the 100 same. Other products like G-DAM, future and forward markets, season ahead 90 contracts to add value as and when they are introduced. 80 Valuation We expect IEX volumes to increase at a CAGR of 18% over FY18-21E. Improved EBITDA margin post acquisition of 63Moons technology to improve bottomline at a CAGR of 20%. At current price the stock is trading at 28xFY19E and 24xFY20E earnings. IEX has very high return ratios with ROE at 42% and ROCE at 65%. IEX % Shareholding Mar-18 Dec-18 has generated consistent FCF and offer FCF of yield of 4% on FY19E FCF. Based on Promoters - - Discounted Cash Flow method we arrive at a target price of Rs2025 27% upside Institutions 56.78 56.78 from current levels. We recommend ‘BUY’. Others 43.22 43.22 Total 100.0 100.0 Key Financials ( Rs Mns) Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Initiating Coverage@ Dalal & Broacha Investment Rationale Company Background IEX is the largest exchange for the trading of a range of electricity products in India. Electricity products traded over IEX’s electronic trading platform comprise (i) electricity contracts in blocks of 15 minutes in the day-ahead-market (the “DAM”), (ii) electricity contracts for fixed terms in the future, such as intra-day contracts, day ahead contingency contracts and contracts up to 11 days ahead, known as the term-ahead-market (the “TAM”) and (iii) renewable energy certificates (“RECs”). The company also introduced “Ecerts.” IEX has been operational since 2008 and today has a market share of 98.5% of the total power volumes traded on exchanges. Over 5,800 participants registered on our Exchange of which over 3,500 participants were active. IEX derives its revenues from three segments:1) transaction charges – it charges 4 paise per unit on each unit traded on its platform and Rs40/REC; 2) one-time joining and annual subscription fees from trading members and clients (in all 4000 participants are registered on IEX platform); and 3) investment income earned on member deposits, trading margins and surplus cash. In FY18, transaction revenues contributed 88%, annual subscription 11% and balance 11% was from investment income. Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. (41%), PTC Financial Services (PFS) (26%), and other power and financial market participants promoted IEX In June 2008. Both FTIL and PFS had to sell their stake post different orders from CERC: 1) in 2012, CERC mandated that no trading member of the exchange could hold more than 5% in the exchange. Consequently, PFS had to reduce its holding; and 2) following the commodity market fiasco (NSEL) in 2013, CERC forced FTIL (also a promoter in the commodity exchange) to sell its stake. It is during this time that many private equity investors became shareholders of the company. Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Initiating Coverage@ Dalal & Broacha Major Shareholders Source: RHP, Annual Report Power situation in India: India is the third-largest electricity producer in the world. Thermal power plants constitute around 67% of the installed capacity, followed by renewable, hydro and nuclear at around 18%, 14% and 2%, respectively. During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan ending March 2017, about 92 GW of thermal generation capacity has been added against a target of 72 GW. While capacity addition has peaked, the peak demand has grown at a moderate CAGR of 4.1% during the past five years ending March 2017, on account of sluggish demand from the industrial and commercial segments. In this context, the country has witnessed a gradual decline in peak deficit from 9.0% in the financial year 2013 to 1.6% in the financial year 2017. While generation capacity has been added at a faster pace over the last five years, the growth in transmission has not been commensurate enough to ensure congestion free transmission within the country, resulting in situations where a certain demand in a market could not be met even as supply is available elsewhere. This has led to some unsold capacity in some regions impacting plant load factors for thermal generation plants. The mismatch in Supply and demand has led to excess availability of Power in India with PLF of as low as 60% for thermal plants for FY17. Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Initiating Coverage@ Dalal & Broacha Installed generation capacity Grand Thermal Nuclear Hydro RES total Coal Gas Diesel Total FY07 53.70% 10.30% 0.90% 64.90% 2.90% 26.20% 6.00% 100.00% FY12 56.00% 9.20% 0.60% 65.80% 2.40% 19.50% 12.30% 100.00% FY13 58.30% 9.00% 0.50% 67.80% 2.10% 17.70% 12.40% 100.00% FY14 59.20% 8.90% 0.50% 68.60% 1.90% 16.60% 12.90% 100.00% FY15 60.60% 8.50% 0.40% 69.50% 2.10% 15.20% 13.20% 100.00% FY16 61.30% 8.10% 0.30% 69.70% 1.90% 14.20% 14.20% 100.00% FY17 58.80% 7.70% 0.30% 66.80% 2.10% 13.60% 17.50% 100.00% Source: RHP Power supply position in India Peak Energy (MU) (MW) Year Requirement Availability Deficit (%) Peak Demand Peak Met Deficit (%) FY11 861591 788355 -8.5% 122287 110256 -9.84% FY12 937199 857886 -8.5% 130006 116191 -10.63% FY13 995557 908652 -8.7% 135453 123294 -8.98% FY14 1002257 959829 -4.2% 135918 129815 -4.49% FY15 1068923 1030785 -3.6% 148166 141160 -4.73% FY16 1114408 1090850 -2.1% 153366 148453 -3.20% FY17 1142929 1135334 -0.7% 159542 156934 -1.63% FY18 1212134 1203567 -0.7% 164066 160752 -2.02% Source: RHP Oversupply situation to drive short term volumes: The short term volume has been at ~10% levels for almost 7 years now. Short term markets remained range bound due to power deficit scenario in the past. SEBs ensured adequate power supply with certainty. With power supply situation changing in the country SEBs are focused on procuring power at competitive rates. Augmentation of transmissions capacity lowering grid congestion for short term transactions, ramp up in domestic coal production and subdued power price is likely to drive short term volumes. Short term power volume is likely to increase from current 10% to 15% by FY22E. However these volumes are expected to increase further if the PLFs remain low and the Discoms face Balance sheet problems. Indian Energy Exchange Ltd. July 31, 2018 Initiating Coverage@ Dalal & Broacha Short term volume as % of total generation 1400 10.80% 10.80% 11.00% 10.80% 1160 121111% 1200 1048.7 1107.8 967.2 10.50% 1000 876.9 912.1 10.40% 10.30% 811.110.10% 800 10.00% 600 9.40% 9.50% 400 130.8 9.00% 200 81.6 94.5 98.9 104.6 99 115.2 120 0 8.50% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 Short Term Electricity Trade (BU) Total Electricity Generation from Conventional Sources Short term trade as % of Total Generation Source: RHP It is worth noting that, although the proportion of short term trades have remained at 10% for almost 7 years, the share of Exchanges have grown in a nonlinear way from 11% in FY10 to 34% in FY17.
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