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R Model Portfolio January 2021

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R Model Portfolio January 2021 Institutional Equity Research January 05, 2021 R Model Portfolio January 2021 Binod Modi Head Strategy Contact: 022 4303 4626/9870009382 Email: [email protected] D. Vijiya Rao Senior Research Associate Contact : (022) 4303 4633/9321404056 Email : [email protected] 1 Domestic Equities Stayed Upbeat; Outlook Remains Strong Domestic equities continued to remain upbeat in Dec’20, as the benchmark indices recorded sharp rebound despite threat from new COVID-19 strain and business restrictions due to rapid rise in new coronavirus cases in the USA and European countries. Nonetheless, with consistent improvement in COVID-19 recovery rates and improvement in key economic indicators, India continued to attract FPIs flow with net inflow of Rs620bn from FPIs, while the DIIs sold equities to the tune of Rs373bn during the month. Notably, soft monetary policy stance by the global bankers along with additional fiscal stimulus worth US$900bn announced by the USA and commencement of vaccination process in several countries bolstered the investors’ confidence. While the Nifty and BSE 500 delivered ~7.8% return, RSec Model Portfolio delivered similar return during the month. Similarly, with a return of 14.9%, RSec Model Portfolio outperformed Nifty and BSE 500 by 850bps and 620bps, respectively in 2020 led by our strategy of getting overweight on pharma and IT and underweight on BFSI for the large part of the year. In our view, domestic equities should continue to do well in 2021 as well led by sustainable inflows from the FPIs on the back of soft monetary policy stance of the global bankers, robust recovery in corporate earnings and continued improvement in economic activities with the progress on vaccination roll-out. We expect Nifty earnings to grow by 4%, 39% and 20% in FY21E, FY22E and FY23E, respectively and our 2021 Nifty target is 14,900. (please refer our 2021 India Strategy Note). Broad Based Rally Seen in Dec’20 Favourable global markets and stimulus package announced by the USA along with continued improvement in key economic data propelled markets to witness sharp up-move in Dec’20 with all sectoral indices contributing to the rally. Cyclical like Metals & Real Estate and IT witnessed stronger double-digit recovery during the month. Financials, which gained 35% in Nov’20, continued to move higher and recorded 6% gain, with the PSBs recording double-digit gain during the month. In our view, Pharma, Automobiles, Building Materials, Financials (small private banks and HFCs) and cyclical like Metals and Real Estate should continue to do well in 2021. 3QFY21 Earnings & Union Budget – Near-term Key Events In addition to huge liquidity, a sharp earnings rebound in 2QFY21 with consistent improvement in key domestic economic indicators helped the Nifty to witness sharp rebound in recent months. As Nifty currently trades at a significant premium to its historical average, sustainability of earnings recovery is crucial. While 2QFY21 earnings growth was primarily driven by pent-up demand, 3QFY21 corporate earnings will offer clarity about the regular demand. Additionally, the Union Budget will offer clarity over the status of capital expenditures and budgetary allocation towards the key sectors. Portfolio Reshuffling: Replacing Biocon with Cadila Given imminent opportunity in injectable business in the USA and possible double-digit improvement in domestic formulation business, Cadila Healthcare is expected to see healthy traction in the ensuing quarters. Further, the company is also in the fray of capitalizing on the significant opportunity in COVID-19 vaccine space, which could prove to be a solid trigger for the company in the medium-to-long-term. 2 Exhibit 1: Updated R Model Portfolio – January 2021 Market Cap* Price* Investment Value* Weight in Portfolio* Company Sector No. of shares (Rs Cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) HDFC Bank 7,86,301 BFSI 1,436 10 14,363 8.6 ICICI Bank 3,69,175 BFSI 535 21 11,236 6.8 State Bank of India 2,52,700 BFSI 275 32 8,798 5.3 HDFC Ltd 4,62,676 BFSI 2,559 3 7,676 4.6 LIC Housing Finance 19,303 BFSI 361 29 10,476 6.3 HCL Technologies 2,60,091 IT 946 9 8,515 5.1 Tech Mahindra 95,020 IT 973 9 8,759 5.3 Titan Co 1,37,878 Consumer 1,567 6 9,403 5.7 Dabur India 94,875 Consumer 534 8 4,272 2.6 Indian Energy Exchange 6,575 Power 228 15 3,419 2.1 Laurus Labs 18,966 Pharmaceuticals 353 25 8,829 5.3 Cadila Healthcare 49,657 Pharmaceuticals 477 22 10,489 6.3 IPCA Laboratories 27,515 Pharmaceuticals 2,189 4 8,755 5.3 Mahindra & Mahindra 91,219 Automobile 721 14 10,088 6.1 Ashok Leyland 30,383 Automobile 95 109 10,404 6.3 Bharti Airtel 2,81,043 Telecommuniction 510 26 13,252 8.0 SRF 33,743 Chemicals 5,574 2 11,148 6.7 Cash (Balancing) 6,510 4 Grand Total 1,66,392 100 Source: RSec Research; Note: * The prices and other data as of 31 Deember 2020 3 Exhibit 2: New Inclusion into R Model Portfolio Exhibit 3: Stock Removed from the R Model Portfolio Weight on date of Re- Weight on date of Sr No Company Sr No Company balancing (%) Re-balancing (%) 1 Cadila Healthcare 6.3 1 Biocon 6.2 Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research Exhibit 4: Changes in Holdings Sr No Company Previous (No. Of shares) Old Weight (%) New (No. Of shares) New Weight (%) No Changes Source: RSec Research 4 Exhibit 5: Absolute Performance of R Model Portfolio v/s NIFTY 50 (Since Oct ’14) Exhibit 6: R Model Portfolio Out/Under-performance Relative to Nifty 180 10.0 7.7 7.9 170 5.4 4.4 160 5.0 3.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.5 1.9 1.5 150 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.1 140 0.0 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1)(0.1) (0.8) (0.4) 130 (1.3) (1.2) (1.5) (2.2) (1.7)(1.6) (2.1) 120 (5.0) (3.2) (3.4) (5.0) 110 (7.5) 100 (10.0) 90 (10.6) 80 (15.0) 17 18 16 19 19 18 17 17 19 16 17 15 18 16 15 18 16 15 15 19 20 20 Apr'15 Oct'15 Apr'16 Oct'16 Apr'17 Oct'17 Apr'18 Oct'18 Dec'18 Feb'19 Apr'19 June'19 Aug'19 Oct'19 Dec'19 Feb'20 Apr'20 Jun'20 Aug'20 Oct'20 Dec'20 20 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - to to to to to to to Jul Jun Feb Jan Feb Feb Apr Sep Dec Dec Nov Jun Nov Nov Aug Mar Aug Aug Sep Dec May May May Mar Jun'15 Dec'15 Jun'16 Dec'16 Jun'17 Dec'17 Jun'18 RSec Model Protfolio NIFTY Outperformance / Underperformance relative to Nifty 50 Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research Exhibit 7: R Model Portfolio v/s BSE 500 - Absolute performance Exhibit 8: R Model Portfolio Outperformance / Underperformance relative to BSE 500 20.0 4.0 3.5 15.0 3.0 10.0 2.2 5.0 2.0 2.0 1.7 - 1.0 0.8 1.0 -5.0 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 -10.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 -15.0 - -20.0 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -25.0 -1.3 -30.0 -2.0 -1.4 -2.1 -3.0 Oct'19 Apr'19 July'19 Oct'20 Jun'20 Sep'19 Dec'19 Nov'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Apr'20 Aug'19 July'20 Sep'20 Dec'20 Nov'20 May'19 Aug'20 June'19 Mar'20 May'20 Oct'19 Apr'19 July'19 Oct'20 Jun'20 Sep'19 Dec'19 Nov'19 Jan'20 Feb'20 Apr'20 Aug'19 July'20 Sep'20 Dec'20 Nov'20 May'19 Aug'20 June'19 Mar'20 RSec Model Protfolio BSE 500 May'20 Source: RSec Research Source: RSec Research 5 Stock Name Investment Arguments Stock Name Investment Arguments HDFC Bank* f With improved collection efficiency, superior asset quality and low credit cost, HDFC SBI* f Despite the challenging environment, the bank continues to remain the best bet amongst Bank (HDFCB) is poised to deliver better operating performance, going ahead. the Public Sector Banks (PSBs) on the back of a formidable liability franchise, well performing subsidiaries and better capital positioning. f Franchise strength, strong liability traction and a strong focus on digital initiatives, data analytics and automation will help the bank to improve its market share and f The recent regulatory guidelines on restructuring and current account operations are deliver market-leading advances growth. expected to be positive for the bank. Further, with PCR of 88% as on Sep 2020 and better capitalization, bank stands on a firm ground in ongoing challenging scenario. f Momentum in advances will be led by both corporate and retail aided by favourable f At CMP, the stock trades at 0.9x of FY22E and 0.9x of FY23E adjusted book value. cost of funds/deposit and better offers, respectively. f Provisioning buffers (including floating and contingency provisioning) are adequate f HDFC Ltd.* HDFC has been successfully maintaining spreads and NIM across interest rate cycles. for any contingency due to the pandemic. We expect it to deliver superior risk- Given the strength of its liability franchise, we think that this interest rate cycle will be no adjusted asset quality with much lower credit cost vs.
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