Cleeve Racing's National Hunt Ten to Follow 2015-2016

Cleeve Racing’s National Hunt Ten to Follow 2015-2016

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

Introduction

We have deliberately left out the blindingly obvious horses from this list, as pretty much every other ten to follow list will include some or all of the following:

Douvan, Faugheen, Vautour, Annie Power, Coneygree, Don Poli, Djakadam, Silviniaco Conti, Dodging Bullets and Un de Sceaux.

All ten of those horses are likely to win many of the major races in the coming season; however are likely to be at prohibitive odds due to their established credentials.

The horses included in this Ten to Follow are very well worth backing all season. As most things that are free most people will read the report once and then store it on their hard drive and forget about it. We do however have a service for everyone that wants to follow the selections.

The Ten Follow service sends you an email every time one of the selections is running and we will highlight weather we think the right conditions exist for the selections to have a good chance of winning.

So here we go with the Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow:

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

1. All Set to Go

 4-y-o (27Apr11 gr g)  Verglas (IRE) (8.6f) — Firecrest(IRE) (Darshaan (11.7f))  Trainer Paul Nicholls  Owner C G Roach  Breeder Mrs S M Rogers & Sir Thomas Pilkington

This is a pretty dark horse as far as this type of list goes as he has only had one race over hurdles to date; however he was placed in Group 3 race on the flat. He beat Kingfisher in that race and finished less than three lengths behind multiple Group race winner Fascinating Rock.

He finished fourth in his only hurdle race and Paul Nicholls reported that he has since had a breathing operation and I think that we will see a revitalised horse next season. I would expect that he will continue his novice hurdle campaign and will handle all kinds of going. It would be no surprise to see him start off at one of the West Country tracks prior to moving through the grades.

LIFETIME STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD TS RPR Flat Turf 9 1 0 1 £7,293 £17,159 72 105 100 Stakes 5 0 0 1 £0 £9,866 72 105 100 Hurdle 1 0 0 0 £0 £429 33 87 —

Summary

Going – All types of going Race Type – Novice Hurdles

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

2. Aux Ptits Soins

 5-y-o (03Apr10 gr g)  Saint Des Saints (FR) — Reflexion Faite (FR) (Turgeon (USA) (10.4f))  Trainer Paul Nicholls  Owner J Hales  Breeder S C E A Haras De Saint Voir 

Image courtesy of Course racing Specialist

This horse really excites me despite only having had the one race in the UK; however that was a win at Cheltenham in the Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) Grade 3. That performance was impressive beating a couple of very good horses Taglietelle and Activial despite making a couple of mistakes at hurdles on the way round.

He has had a setback or two over the summer and is unlikely to be seen again until the New Year, but I think we shall see a stronger horse come back. His owner expects him to be a Gold Cup winner going forward, but I think we shall see the best of him over hurdles from 2 miles 4 furlongs up to 3 miles. His smooth action and high cruising speed will make him hard to beat when we see him back on the track.

Statistics

LIFETIME BEST BEST RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS TS RPR OR† NHF 1 0 0 1 £0 £2,250 — — — Hurdle 3 3 0 0 £83,960 £83,960 85 146 152 Rules Races 4 3 0 1 £83,960 £86,210 — — —

Summary

Going – Won on all types of going Race Type – High grade Handicap Hurdles in the New Year

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

3. Bellshill  5-y-o (25Mar10 b g)  King´s Theatre (IRE) (11.4f) — Fairy Native (IRE) (Be My Native (USA) (11.7f))  Trainer W P Mullins  Owner Andrea & Graham Wylie  Breeder Frank Motherway

Image courtesy of Racing Post

A beautifully bred horse, which won two out of five races under rules; including the Grade 1 Champion Bumper at Punchestown in April. He won that race very comfortably indeed and this made up for his disappointing performance in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham a few weeks earlier. It may be that he did not handle the undulations at Cheltenham and his shrewd trainer may aim him at top hurdles at Leopardstown, Kempton and Aintree.

I think his performance at Punchestown showed a maturity, which he did not show until that race. If you watch the race you will see the smooth headway throughout the race, which marks out a very good horse. I am looking forward to seeing him especially if Ruby Walsh is on board as he will bring the horse through to challenge in the final furlong.

Statistics

LIFETIME STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD TS RPR NHF 5 2 2 0 £48,499 £56,325 118 140 — PTP 1 0 1 0 £0 £0 — 87 — Rules Races 5 2 2 0 £48,499 £56,325 — — —

Summary

Going – Good to Yielding, Good to Soft Race Type – Novice Hurdles

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

4. Clarcam

 5-y-o (21May10 b g)  Califet (FR) — Rose Beryl (FR) (Lost World (IRE) (7.9f))  Trainer Gordon Elliott  Owner Gigginstown House Stud  Breeder Jean Michel & Dominique Le Breton

Image courtesy of Belfast Telegraph

Clarcam ran seven times last season and won five of those; however if he had not come up against Vautour and Un de Sceaux he would have won another two. He won the Grade 1 Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree staying on well to win his first race over 2 miles and four furlongs.

My view is that he should be kept to this distance going forward as I don’t believe he has the speed to challenge the really top horses like Vautour and Un de Sceaux over two miles. He can make mistakes but usually they have come when he is going too quickly for his own comfort. He settled much better over the two and a half miles and can dominate that distance next season.

Statistics

LIFETIME STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD TS RPR Flat Turf 1 0 0 0 £0 £1,057 — — — Hurdle 10 2 5 1 £15,041 £51,732 116 139 123 Chase 6 3 2 0 £107,757 £121,540 115 159 159

Summary

Going - Good to Soft or Yielding Race Type - Grade 1 Chases at 2 Miles 4 Furlongs

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

5. Killultagh Vic

 6-y-o (12Apr09 b g)  Old Vic (12.9f) — Killultagh Dawn (IRE) (Phardante (FR ) (12.7f))  Trainer W P Mullins  Owner Mrs R Boyd, Mrs M J Armstrong & J B Anderson  Breeder F Boyd

Image courtesy of Course Specilists

The last two races that this horse ran last season had me really looking forward to seeing him again – he won the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and then followed that up by winning the Grade 1 Irish Daily Mirror Novice Hurdle. Both races marked him out as a horse to follow due his battling qualities especially at Cheltenham, where he was headed going towards the line but battled back to win. The Punchestown race was in my view a key race where we will see multiple winners come from it.

He will be aimed at the top hurdles unless Willie decides that he will be even better over fences, which I think he will be in time.

Statistics

LIFETIME BEST BEST RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS TS RPR OR† NHF 5 2 1 0 £12,363 £14,207 117 138 — Hurdle 5 3 1 1 £81,791 £92,563 115 155 149 PTP 1 0 0 1 £0 £0 — 75 —

Summary

Going – Won on all types of going from Good to Heavy Race Type – High grade Hurdles or possibly Novice Chases

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

6. Moon Racer  6-y-o (01Jan09 b g)  Saffron Walden (FR) (13.6f) — Angel´s Folly (Wesaam (USA) )  Trainer David Pipe  Owner Professor Caroline Tisdall & Bryan Drew  Breeder Denis And Mrs Teresa Bergin

Image courtesy of Sporting Life

The Cheltenham Champion Bumper winner is unbeaten having won three out of three bumper races to date. He is one of the most impressive bumper winners I have seen and although that does not guarantee success over hurdles I will be very surprised if he does not win a Graded Hurdle in the coming season.

Moon Racer has a turn of foot which will win him more races as the vast majority of horses do not have that level of acceleration. It would be no surprise if he is targeted at the big novice hurdle at Kempton over Christmas and it will take a very good horse to beat him if he takes to hurdles.

Statistics

LIFETIME STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD TS RPR NHF 3 3 0 0 £87,885 £87,885 102 140 — Rules Races 3 3 0 0 £87,885 £87,885 — — —

Summary

Going – Good, Good to Soft Race Type – High grade Novice Hurdles

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

7. Peace and Co  4-y-o (22Mar11 b g)  Falco (USA) (8.6f) — Peace Lina (FR) (Linamix (FR ) (11.2f))  Trainer Nicky Henderson  Owner Simon Munir & Isaac Souede  Breeder Scuderia Bolgheri & Ecurie D

Image courtesy of Racing Post

This is one of the most impressive novice hurdlers of recent times and is unbeaten in four starts which includes wins in two Grade 2’s and culminated with winning the Grade 1 Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. His cruising speed is mightily impressive and he will probably be Faugheen’s biggest challenger for the Champion Hurdle in March 2016.

Although his win at the Cheltenham Festival was only by a neck he was always holding the second and Barry Geraghty knew that he had the best horse by some margin.

The 10-1 on offer for the Champion Hurdle looks like good each way value at this stage especially as his trainer has a fantastic record with this type of animal.

Statistics

LIFETIME STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD TS RPR Hurdle 4 4 0 0 £114,101 £114,101 141 155 157 Rules Races 4 4 0 0 £114,101 £114,101 — — —

Summary

Going – Soft Race Type – High grade Hurdles Champion Hurdle contender

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

8. The Druids Nephew

 8-y-o (28Apr07 b g)  King´s Theatre (IRE) (11.4f) — Gifted (Shareef Dancer (USA) (9.9f))  Trainer Neil Mulholland  Owner The Stonehenge Druids  Breeder Patrick Collins 

Image courtesy of Sky Sports

The Druids Nephew was leading the Grand National before coming down at Valentines on the final circuit and I am sure that he will not be far away next time round. His jumping is generally sound and he showed that to good effect by winning the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase Grade 3 at the Cheltenham Festival.

He has an entry for the Cheltenham Gold Cup which I think would be difficult for him to win due to the strength in depth in that race. If he were mine I would aim him at the Welsh National and then run him in a hurdle, skip Cheltenham and go for the Grand National. His young trainer is one I really like and I am sure his reputation will grow even more in the coming season.

LIFETIME BEST BEST RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS TS RPR OR† Hurdle 5 1 0 1 £5,848 £9,825 125 142 139 Chase 14 3 3 1 £64,887 £83,179 117 158 156 PTP 2 1 1 0 £0 £0 — 88 — Rules Races 19 4 3 2 £70,735 £93,004 — — —

Summary

Going – Won on all types of going Race Type – Grade 1 Chases – Welsh National and Grand National

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

9. Thistlecrack

 7-y-o (29Mar08 b g)  Kayf Tara (13.7f) — Ardstown (Ardross (12.6f))  Trainer Colin Tizzard  Owner John and Heather Snook  Breeder R F And S D Knipe

Image courtesy of Sky Sports

Winning a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle by 13 lengths takes a very good horse and that is exactly what Thistlecrack achieved when winning the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April. He then was runner up to Killultagh Vic at Punchestown in a Grade 1 and as I mentioned that will prove to be a key race with multiple winners coming from that. I think he may have beaten Killultagh Vic if he had not been short of room in the closing stages. He has won from 2 miles up to 3 miles and it is at the longer distance that I expect him to shine in the future.

I very much look forward to a rematch between Thistlecrack and Killultagh Vic and it would be hard to separate them unless one has strengthened up more than the other.

Statistics

LIFETIME STARTS WIN 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD S TS RPR NHF 3 1 0 1 £1,625 £2,410 94 113 — Hurdle 6 3 1 0 £69,720 £85,588 133 154 150 Rules Races 9 4 1 1 £71,344 £87,998 — — —

Summary

Going – Good/Yielding to Soft Race Type – High grade Hurdles

Cleeve Racing Ten to Follow ©Cleeve Racing Limited 2015

10. Sizing Granite

 7-y-o (14May08 br g)  Milan (13.8f) — Hazel´s Tisrara (IRE) (Mandalus (12.3f))  Trainer Henry De Bromhead  Owner Ann & Alan Potts Partnership  Breeder Thomas Kelly

Image courtesy of Sporting Life

Sizing Granite really impressed me when winning the Grade 1 Novice Chase on Grand National Day. He jumped really well and was always holding God’s Own. That is top class form and was a big step up in class for him. Partnered by Jonathan Burke, the top Irish conditional, he can go on to win more at this level, as he has proved he is not ground reliant. He’s one to watch for at the big meetings in Ireland and anytime he is sent over to the UK.

LIFETIME STARTS WIN 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST BEST OR† RECORD S TS RPR

Hurdle 4 1 1 1 £5,750 £7,776 113 132 127 Chase 5 4 0 0 £90,606 £90,606 142 159 154 PTP 1 0 0 0 £0 £0 — — — Rules Races 9 5 1 1 £96,356 £98,382 — — —

Summary

Going – Any type of ground Race Type – High grade Chases

Supreme Racing Five to Follow

Supreme Racing is now the most successful racing club in Ireland and numerically the second biggest owner with Willie Mullins, they currently have 38 horses in training and rank only behind the 800lb Gorillas of National Hunt racing… Mr Rich Ricci and Gigginstown Stud!

The success of the club has been pretty stratospheric since they started 4 years ago with just one horse and 8 owners. Their record since then is 60 wins and 70 places from just 184 runs* which is an incredible win and place strike rate of 70%! Those performances have amassed prize money of £583,000 (and it wouldn’t surprise me if owners haven’t ‘trousered’ more than that from the bookies!) and they have finished in the top 10 of the owners table for the last 3 seasons.

Their flag bearer and a canny purchase at under 20K euro is Pique Sous who placed in the Champion Bumper as a 4 year old and won at Royal Ascot last year. It’s high profile performances like these that keep the momentum going, and the club now have 38 horses and over 400 owners.

When asked what he put the secret of their success down too, Racing Manager Steve Massey didn’t hesitate… It’s a team effort, but saying that the stars are Harrold Kirk who buys all our horses and the genius of Willie Mullins who needs no introduction from me. To be honest we would never be where we are now without them. Ruby (Walsh), Paul (Townend) and Patrick (Mullins) also play a big part and last but by no means least are our brilliant owners.

We have over 400 owners now and they are as keen as mustard. We rarely have a runner without at least 10 of them in the parade ring and even more at the bigger meetings… we now have to have our own boxes! Most of 6them are very knowledgeable and that makes my job a lot easier (not easy mind!) as there are always ups and downs in racing with horses disappointing or having a setback. But then you’ll get a Pique Sous in the Champion bumper, or a Very Much So the Goff’s, or this year we had Avant Tout winning at the Punchestown Festival and all you feel is pure joy. Every racing fan has dreamed of being an owner but for 99% that dream is of being a winning owner, and we have built a team that allows us to get the calibre of horse that makes that winning dream a reality for our owners”

If you want to find out more about Supreme Racing or horses with shares available, get in touch with Steve Massey on +44 7539 332851 or [email protected]

1. Avant Tout

Cleeve have shares in this exciting gelding who looks set to take rank amongst the novice chasers this season. Bought by Supreme Racing from France after winning his seasonal debut by 12 lengths, he always looked as though he had the size and scope to make a chaser so anything he achieved over hurdles was very much seen as a bonus. He won his first bumper in atrocious conditions beating a fair yardstick from Gigginstown, before finishing 4th in a winners bumper where he dropped out before finishing very strongly in the straight. Willie thought he was showing enough at home to run him against older horses in the Albert Bartlett over 3 miles, but an overnight deluge effectively put paid to his chances and he was wisely pulled up 3 out (as was half the field). He then convincingly took a competitive handicap at the Punchestown festival of second top weight (again against older horses), recording a mark of 129 in the process.

On his final appearance of the season Avant Tout made his debut over the bigger obstacles where over an inadequate trip he jumped beautifully and quickened impressively round the home turn before over jumping at the last and nearly coming down, despite that he ran out an easy 3 length winner and the form has been strongly franked by the 3rd Viconte du Noyer (22 lengths back) who went on to win his next two. Hopefully Avant Tout will develop into a leading contender for either the JLT or RSA at next year's festival where he will get the good ground that he acts on so effectively.

2. Uranna

Uranna is another expected to excel over fences. She won two of her five starts last season including a valuable listed bumper at Sandown before finishing a very respectable 4th in the grade 1 mares final behind Harry Fry's prolific winner Bitofapuzzle who went on to finish 3rd at the Festival. She will now go straight over fences and looks a leading contender to go to the top of the mares division.

3. Myska This once raced daughter of Presenting is yet another exciting prospect, whose season target will hopefully be the new mares race at the Festival. She bolted up in a Clonmel bumper in a very fast time, and the second that day has gone on to win twice and run second to the smart Whiteout. Myska was then put away and given time to mature. She has showed that benefit by coming back a much stronger mare and at this stage is showing all the right things at home.

Finally we have a couple of darker unraced ones...

4. Torrent des Mottes

Torrent des Mottes is a beautifully bred 4 year old grey gelding with a top quality French pedigree, which will hopefully translate into the ability required to compete in top class races both on the flat and over timber. His season target will be the grade 1 Goff’s Landrover Trophy at Punchestown, a race that Willie has won two of the last three years.

5. Chambord du Lys

A 3 year old mare by Great Pretender, Chambord du Lys has run once in France where she finished fast into 3rd and may well have won in another 50 yards! The form has a strong look about it with the well beaten 10th and 11th coming out and winning next time, and the 4th finishing second in a £50K race at Auteuil. She has really strengthened up since getting to Willie’s and is doing everything she is being asked. As she is considered to be a decent prospect she is not expected to hit the track until around Xmas and the Festival bumper finals or graded mares novices and could develop into a top class 2 miler over hurdles.

Willie Mullins Dark Novices

You can tell which are the better regarded of Willie’s better horses by when they are seen on the racecourse. His whole season is geared to big performances at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals and his big guns are primed to peak then. Willie feels it is crucial to work backwards from those dates, and not to overrun a horse but have them fresh and ready to peak, usually after a maximum of 3 prep runs.

With that in mind, I have done a little research into when some of last season’s Cheltenham Festival made their reappearances and the results are revealing.

Douvan - November 22nd, Un De Sceaux - November 27th, Faugheen - November 22nd, Glen’s Melody - December 28th, Don Poli - November 22nd, Vautour - November 23rd. His best juveniles didn’t appear until November 30th, December 31st and January 22nd.

By watching the profile of the horses appearing round this time and cross referencing them against the races and tracks that Willie historically favours you really can get a good feel for the pecking order amongst his novices, and hopefully build an antepost portfolio that gives some value come next March.

We expect the following horses, given a clear run to be amongst Willie’s Festival Team next March, although admittedly it is still very early days in the curve of their training profiles. We will try and get an update for you over the Xmas period when things are hopefully a little clearer…

1. Fulham Road is a 5 year old gelding by Shantou whose only experience to date was in a Punchestown point to point last year where he fell before the race really got going. He had obviously been showing plenty as he was then acquired by Rich Ricci and was quoted as an early favourite for the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham. Unfortunately he met with a setback and missed the rest of the season. A smart prospect we expect to see him winning his bumpers before taking high rank in novice hurdles.

2. Invitation Only is a 4 year old Flemensfirth gelding in the ownership of Graham and Andrea Wylie. Unraced under rules he has run once winning a point to point by 7 lengths. The 4 race report was as follows: Handler Sean Doyle sent out his first four year old winner of the season with Invitation Only. One of six newcomers in the eight-runner field, Invitation Only gave a superb display of fencing and a fabulous third-last fence jump saw him put the race beyond doubt. He seems to possess nice reserves of speed and stamina and he should take high order over middle to longer distances on the track. As you would expect he has come on leaps and bounds since arriving at Willie’s and looks right up there with the best of his novices at this, albeit early stage of the season.

3. Crack Mome is another exciting recruit from France having won on his only appearance to date, an APQS flat race at Senonnes in early May where he was an impressive three length winner for Laurent Viel, the form has been franked as the runner up has come out again and won. He is a son of Spanish Moon and is one to look forward to in the juvenile hurdles .Graham Wyle snapped him up as well and he looks very much the staying hurdler type with which he has had great success in the past.

4. Footpad is an ex-Robert Collet 3 year old by Creachadoir out of a Sadlers Wells mare who has gone into the ownership of Simon Munir and Isaac Souede. The pair made quite a splash on the juvenile hurdler scene last season with their French-breds; including Peace and Co and Topnotch who filled the first two places home in the Triumph Hurdle. Footpad has the scope to develop into a classy sort and showed plenty of early ability when placed at Auteuil in a very hot race, from which the winner has since reappeared and won again.

5. Min is 4 year old gelding by Walk in the Park and looks another strong string to the Rick Ricci bow. Already quoted as short as the 12/1 second favourite for the Supreme Novices behind moon Racer, he will be trying to emulate his half-brother Douvan who finished last season as the officially top rated novice. Min ran twice at Autueil in decent quality races placing both times. He looked unfurnished and very green, similar to the young Douvan and Willie excels with this kind of horse.