Cheltenham Festival Winning Profiles 2017 (Races to be run Tuesday 14th March to Friday 17th March) www.againstthecrowd.co.uk Page 2 Key trends point to Festival winners The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt racing. The G1 Championship races that take place at the venue every March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of the jump racing game. • The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2-mile hurdler. • The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance of 2-miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival • On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the Stayers’ Hurdle designed to find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3-miles. • Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase – a race which has become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs. • On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup – the staying chasers’ Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs. These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division – at least those which are fit – tend to show up. All the major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. Nothing is being saved for another day. The championship races are invariably run at a red-hot pace. This, in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment and horses in receipt of luck in running, can prevail on the day. A horse can run the race of its life in a Championship race at the Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 1 So how do we solve these betting puzzles? It’s never ‘easy’ to solve these races – but help is at hand in the form of historical evidence. Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top time and time again in the Championship races. The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials…. They have similar qualifications…. They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks…. Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their respective campaigns have similar and consistent features…. They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes. They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile…. Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these long-standing trends tend to fall short. It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and those who match them least. And that information can help you reach betting decisions…. No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a subjective view and weigh up one thing against another. We can figure out which trends we think are most important against what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever reason. The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles on specific races. In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for each of the G1 Championship races set to be run at this season’s Cheltenham Festival – the races where year-on- year the trends most frequently remain consistent. www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 3 I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races. These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile them. That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I use them – alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the big races. And that’s why I’m handing them over to you. They don’t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case ofA + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless – much of which you won’t find elsewhere. Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races. Isolate those that seem strongest or most important to you. Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as potential candidates. It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential flaws in each of the horses set to run. That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the market are completely unaware of. Considering those are the people you are betting against when the Festival races get underway, it is clear the information contained in our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge. What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a case of each to his own. Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine. Other use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws – so that they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges or backing one or more of their opponents. Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right Profile boxes but which are being over-looked by the wider market. I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. I’ve had good days where I’ve backed big winners at big prices. And I’ve had plenty of losing days too. I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable consequence of how I www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 4 play the game. For me it’s a long-term affair. In seeking out value bets I aim to back sufficient winners at sufficiently good prices to get ahead of the game over time…. How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the betting markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job to load the gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is your business…. All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better. Let us know how you get on. Best wishes, Nick Pullen January 2017 www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 5 The Profile of a Champion Hurdle winner The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the Championship event for the hurdlers. We can usually rely on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a really big field now and again. The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2-mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst the older horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance. Course Map www.AgainstTheCrowd.co.uk Page 6 The table below highlights the last 19 winners of the Champion Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer…. Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer 2016 Annie Powe M IRE 8 162 12 27 164 139 5/2 F W P Mullins 2015 Faugheen G IRE 7 169 7 74 169 141 4/5 F W P Mullins 2014 Jezki G IRE 6 165 10 44 167 151 9/1 Mrs John Harrington 2013 Hurricane Fly G IRE 9 172 19 44 173 161 13/8 F W P Mullins 2012 Rock On Ruby G IRE 7 165 6 78 166 160 11/1 Paul Nicholls 2011 Hurricane Fly G IRE 7 167 11 51 169 153 11/4 F W P Mullins 2010 Binocular G FR 6 163 10 38 172 158 9/1 Nicky Henderson 2009 Punjabi G GB 6 163 12 24 164 160 22/1 Nicky Henderson 2008 Katchit G IRE 5 159 12 24 162 157 10/1 Alan King 2007 Sublimity G FR 7 0 5 45 148 139 16/1 John G Carr 2006 Brave Inca G IRE 8 0 20 44 170 151 7/4 F C A Murphy 2005 Hardy Eustace G IRE 8 0 16 31 170 155 7/2 J D T Hughes 2004 Hardy Eustace G IRE 7 0 10 31 156 123 33/1 D T Hughes 2003 Rooster Booster G GB 9 167 25 38 170 154 9/2 2 Philip Hobbs 2002 Hors La Loi III G FR 7 153 16 19 166 152 10/1 James Fanshawe 2000 Istabraq G IRE 8 0 23 51 181 174 8/15 F A P O’Brien 1999 Istabraq G IRE 7 0 16 51 176 171 4/9 F A P O’Brien 1998 Istabraq G IRE 6 0 10 51 162 160 3/1 F A P O’Brien 1997 Make A Stand G GB 6 0 11 30 157 157 7/1 M C Pipe Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times in total.