Contents

How to use and guide key ...... 3 What’s New? ...... 4 Chronological View ...... 5 Supreme Trail...... 7 Trail ...... 8 Trail ...... 9 Neptune Trail...... 10 RSA Trail ...... 11 Champion Chase Trail Preview & Review Available ...... 12 JLT Trail ...... 13 Ryanair Trail ...... 14 World Hurdle Trail Preview & Review Available ...... 15 Trail ...... 16 Albert Bartlett Trail ...... 17 Gold Cup Trail ...... 18

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How to use and guide key

NAVIGATION  The most important tip to remember is to always use Alt-Left Arrow when wishing to return to previous page viewed.

WHAT’S NEW  A list showing the most recent and penultimate previews and reviews added with links to view them.

CHRONOLOGICAL VIEW  Does exactly what it says on the tin. A list of all the trail races for each of the twelve festival grade 1 contests in chronological order. There will be links from here to all the previews, reviews and trails.

TRAIL VIEWS One for each of the twelve Grade 1 festival races covered and will include:

 Previews and Reviews for each of the British & Irish trail races in time order.  Statistics for the mini festivals along the way i.e. at Kempton.  Star Ratings signifying the historical strength of each trail race.

And for the final festival race in each trail we will have links at the top in yellow for the following, which are: TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

 Trends for the final festival race in each trail.  Preview for the Final Festival Race.  Review for the Final Festival Race.  Key Notes which will build up from the reviews of each trail race.

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What’s New?

All new previews and review links will be added to this table throughout the season.

Previews Reviews Champion Chase Champion Chase World Hurdle World Hurlde Feb 6th Sat – Newbury – Game Spirit Grade 2 Jan 16th Sat – Ascot – Clarence House Grade 1 Jan 16th Sat – Ascot – Clarence House Grade 1 Dec 19th Sat - Ascot - Grade 1 Dec 19th Sat - Ascot - Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 Dec 12th Sat - Cheltenham - Relkeel Grade 2 Dec 12th Sat - Cheltenham - Relkeel Grade 2 Dec 5th Sat – Sandown – Tingle Creek Grade 1 Dec 5th Sat – Sandown – Tingle Creek Grade 1 Nov 28th Sat - Newbury - Long Distance Grade 2 Nov 28th Sat - Newbury - Long Distance Grade 2 Nov 15th Sun – Cheltenham – Shloer Chase Listed Nov 15th Sun – Cheltenham – Shloer Chase Listed Oct 31st Sat – Wetherby - West Yorkshire Grade 2

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Chronological View

KEY: PRE = Trail Race Preview, REV = Trail Race Review, Course* = Meeting Statistics Date Course PRE REV Trail Race Name Festival Destinations Oct 11th Sun Chepstow REV Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune) Oct 25th Sun Aintree REV Old Roan Hcp Chase Grade 2 (Ryanair) Oct 31st Sat Down Royal PRE REV JNwine.com Champion Chs Grade 1 (Gold Cup) Oct 31st Sat Wetherby PRE REV Charlie Hall Chase Grade 2 (Gold Cup) Oct 31st Sat Wetherby PRE REV West Yorkshire Grade 2 (World) Nov 3rd Tue Exeter REV Grade 2 (Champion Chase/Ryanair) Nov 7th Sat Wincanton REV Elite Hcp Hurdle Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle) Nov 7th Sat Wincanton PRE REV Rising Stars Grade 2 (JLT/RSA) Nov 8th Sun Navan REV Navan Fortria Chase Grade 2 (Champion Chase) Nov 13th Fri Cheltenham* REV Hyde Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune) Nov 14th Sat Cheltenham* REV Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 (Triumph) Nov 14th Sat Cheltenham* REV Grade 3 Hcp (Ryanair) Nov 15th Sun Cheltenham* PRE REV Arkle Trial Grade 2 (Arkle/JLT) Nov 15th Sun Cheltenham* PRE REV Shloer Chase (Champion Chase) Nov 15th Sun Cheltenham* PRE REV Sharp Hurdle Grade 2 (Supreme) Nov 15th Sun Punchestown PRE REV Grade 1 (Champion Hurdle) Nov 15th Sun Punchestown REV Craddockstown Nov Chase Grade 2 (Arkle) Nov 21st Sat Ascot PRE REV Coral Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle/World) Nov 21st Sat Ascot PRE REV Amlin Chase Grade 2 (Ryanair) Nov 21st Sat Haydock PRE REV Betfair Chase Grade 1 (Gold Cup) Nov 26th Thu Newbury* REV Worcester Novice Chase Grade 2 (RSA) Nov 27th Fri Newbury* REV Novice Chase Grade 2 (JLT) Nov 28th Sat Newbury* REV Hennessy Gold Cup Hcp Chs Grade 3 (Gold Cup) Nov 28th Sat Newbury* PRE REV Long Distance Grade 2 (World) Nov 28th Sat Newcastle PRE REV Fighting Fifth Grade 1 (Champion Hurdle) Nov 29th Sun Fairyhouse PRE REV Grade 1 (JLT/RSA) Nov 29th Sun Fairyhouse PRE REV Grade 1 (Supreme/Neptune) Nov 29th Sun Fairyhouse PRE REV Hatton's Grace Hurdle Grade 1 (World) Dec 4th Fri Sandown REV Winter Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune) Dec 5th Sat Sandown PRE REV Henry VIII Grade 1 (Arkle/JLT) Dec 5th Sat Sandown PRE REV Tingle Creek Grade 1 (Champion Chase) Dec 6th Sun Huntingdon PRE REV Grade 2 (Ryanair) Dec 6th Sun Punchestown PRE REV John Durkan Chase Grade 1 (Ryanair) Dec 12th Sat Cheltenham* REV Bristol Hurdle Grade 2 (Albert Bartlett) Dec 12th Sat Cheltenham* PRE REV Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle) Dec 12th Sat Cheltenham* PRE REV Relkeel Grade 2 (World) Dec 12th Sat Doncaster PRE REV December Novice Chase Grade 2 (RSA) Dec 12th Sat Doncaster REV Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 (Triumph) Dec 13th Sun Navan REV Navan Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune) Dec 18th- Fri Ascot PRE REV Noel Novice Chase Grade 2 (JLT) Dec 18th- Fri Ascot PRE REV Kennel Gate Grade 2 (Supreme) Dec 19th Sat Ascot PRE REV Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 (World) Dec 26th Sat Kempton* PRE REV Xmas Hurdle Grade 1 (Champion Hurdle) Dec 26th Sat Kempton* PRE REV King George Grade 1 (Gold Cup/Ryanair)

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Date Course PRE REV Trail Race Name Festival Destinations Dec 26th Sat Kempton* PRE REV Novice Chase Grade 1 (RSA) Dec 26th Sat Leopardstown* PRE REV Grade 1 (Arkle/JLT) Dec 27th Sun Chepstow PRE REV Finale Hurdle Grade 1 (Triumph) Dec 27th Sun Kempton* PRE REV Wayward Lad Novice Grade 2 (Arkle) Dec 27th Sun Kempton* PRE REV Grade 2 (Champion Chase) Dec 27th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Dial-A-Bet Chase Grade 1 (Champion Chase/Ryanair) Dec 27th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Future Champions Nov Hdl Grade 1 (Supreme/Neptune) Dec 28th Mon Leopardstown* PRE REV Lexus Chase Grade 1 (Gold Cup) Dec 28th Mon Leopardstown* PRE REV Grade 1 (World) Dec 29th Tues Leopardstown* PRE REV Ryanair Hurdle Grade 1 (Champion Hurdle) Dec 29th Tues Leopardstown* PRE REV Topaz Novice Chase Grade 1 (RSA) Dec 29th Tues Newbury PRE REV Challow Hurdle Grade 1 (Neptune) Jan 1st Fri Cheltenham REV Dipper Novice Chase Grade 2 (JLT) Jan 2nd Sat Sandown PRE REV Tolworth Hurdle Grade 1 (Supreme) Jan 3rd Sun Naas PRE REV Slaney Novice Hurdle Grade 1 (Neptune) Jan 9th Sat Warwick REV Leamington Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune/Albert Bartlett) Jan 9th Sat Punchestown REV Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Supreme) Jan 16th Sat Ascot PRE REV Grade 1 (Champion Chase) Jan 16th Sat Haydock REV Rossington Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Albert Bartlett) Jan 16th Sat Haydock REV Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle) Jan 16th Sat Haydock REV Altcar Novice Chase Grade 2 (JLT) Jan 21st Thu Gowran Park REV Galmoy Hurdle Grade 2 (World) Jan 23rd Sat Cheltenham* PRE REV Cotswold Chase Grade 2 (Gold Cup) Jan 23rd Sat Cheltenham* REV Classic Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Neptune/Albert Bartlett) Jan 23rd Sat Cheltenham* REV Finesse Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 (Triumph) Jan 23rd Sat Cheltenham* PRE REV Grade 2 (World) Jan 23rd Sat Doncaster REV River Don Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Albert Bartlett) Jan 23rd Sat Doncaster REV Lightning Novice Chase Grade 2 (Arkle) Jan 23rd Sat Leopardstown PRE REV Grade 1 (Arkle/JLT) Jan 23rd Sat Leopardstown PRE REV Grade 1 (Champion Hurdle) Jan 30th Sat Sandown PRE REV Scilly Isles Novice Chase Grade 1 (JLT) Jan 30th Sat Wetherby PRE REV Towton Novice Chase Grade 2 (RSA) Jan 30th Sat Punchestown REV Tied Cottage Chase Grade 2 (Champion Chase) Feb 6th Sat Newbury PRE REV Grade 2 (Champion Chase) Feb 6th Sat Newbury PRE REV Denman Chase Grade 2 (Gold Cup) Feb 6th Sat Newbury REV Betfair Hcp Hurdle Grade 3 (Supreme) Feb 6th Sat Warwick PRE REV Kingmaker Novice Chase Grade 2 (Arkle) Feb 7th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Hennessy Gold Cup Grade 1 (Gold Cup) Feb 7th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Flogas Novice Chase Grade 1 (JLT/RSA) Feb 7th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Deloitte Novice Hurdle Grade 1 (Supreme/Neptune) Feb 7th Sun Leopardstown* PRE REV Grade 1 (Triumph) Feb 13th Sat Ascot PRE REV Reynoldstown Novice Chase Grade 2 (RSA) Feb 13th Sat Ascot PRE REV Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 (Ryanair) Feb 13th Sat Haydock PRE REV Prestige Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Albert Bartlett) Feb 13th Sat Haydock PRE REV Rendlesham Hurdle Grade 2 (World) Feb 13th Sat Gowran Park REV Red Mills Chase Grade 2 (Ryanair) Feb 13th Sat Wincanton PRE REV Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle) Feb 14th Sun Navan REV Boyne Hurdle Grade 2 (World) Feb 20th Sat Kempton PRE REV Pendil Novice Chase Grade 2 (JLT) Feb 20th Sat Kempton PRE REV Dovecote Novice Hurdle Grade 2 (Supreme) Feb 20th Sat Kempton PRE REV Adonis Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 (Triumph) Feb 21st Sun Fontwell REV Hurdle Grade 2 (Champion Hurdle/World)

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Supreme Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 15th Sun Sharp Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Nov 29th Sun Royal Bond Grade 1 Fairyhouse Preview Review

Dec 18th Fri Kennel Gate Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review

Dec 27th Sun Future Champions Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 2nd Sat Tolworth Grade 1 Sandown Preview Review

Jan 9th Sat Moscow Flyer Grade 2 Punchestown Review

Feb 6th Sat Betfair Handicap Grade 3 Feb 7th Sun Deloitte Grade 1 Newbury Leopardstown Review Preview Review

Feb 20th Sat Dovecote Grade 2 Kempton Preview Review

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Arkle Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 15th Sun Arkle Trial Grade 2 Nov 15th Sun Craddockstown Grade 2 Cheltenham Punchestown Preview Review Review

Dec 5th Sat Henry VIII Grade 1 Sandown Preview Review

Dec 26th Sat Racing Post Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Dec 27th Sun Wayward Lad Grade 2 Kempton Preview Review

Jan 23rd Sat Lightning Grade 2 Jan 23rd Sat Arkle Nov Chs Grade 1 Doncaster Leopardstown Review Preview Review

Feb 6th Sat Kingmaker Grade 2 Warwick Preview Review

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Champion Hurdle Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 7th Sat Elite Handicap Hurdle Grade 2 Wincanton Review

Nov 15th Sun Morgiana Grade 1 Punchestown Preview Review

Nov 21st Sat Coral Ascot Hurdle Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review

Nov 28th Sat Fighting Fifth Grade 1 Newcastle Preview Review

Dec 12th Sat International Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Dec 26th Sat Christmas Hurdle Grade 1 Kempton Preview Review

Dec 29th Tue Ryanair Hurdle Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 16th Sat Champion Hurdle Trial Grade 2 Haydock Review

Jan 23rd Sat Irish Champion Hdl Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Feb 13th Sat Kingwell Hurdle Grade 2 Wincanton Preview Review

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Neptune Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Oct 11th Sun Persian War Novice Hdl Grade 2 Chepstow Review

Nov 13th Fri Hyde Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Nov 29th Sun Royal Bond Nov Hdl Grade 1 Fairyhouse Preview Review

Dec 4th Fri Winter Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Sandown Review

Dec 13th Sun Navan Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Navan Review

Dec 27th Sun Future Champions Grade 1 Dec 29th Tue Challow Hurdle Grade 1 Leopardstown Newbury Preview Review Preview Review

Jan 3rd Sun Slaney Novice Hdl Grade 2 Naas Preview Review

Jan 9th Sat Leamington Novice Hdl Grade 2 Warwick Review

Jan 23rd Sat Classic Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Feb 7th Sun Deloitte Novice Hdl Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

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RSA Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 7th Sat Rising Stars Grade 2 Wincanton Preview Review

Nov 26th Thu Worcester Novice Chs Grade 2 Newbury Review

Nov 29th Sun Drinmore Novice Chs Grade 1 Fairyhouse Preview Review

Dec 12th Sat December Novices Chs Grade 2 Doncaster Preview Review

Dec 26th Sat Kauto Star Novices Chs Grade 1 Kempton Preview Review

Dec 29th Tue Topaz Novice Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 30th Sat Towton Novice Chase Grade 2 Wetherby Preview Review

Feb 7th Sun Flogas Novice Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Feb 13th Sat Reynoldstown Nov Chs Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review

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Champion Chase Trail Preview & Review Available

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 3rd Tue Haldon Gold Cup Grade 2 Exeter Review

Nov 8th Sun Fortria Chase Grade 2 Navan Review

Nov 15th Sun Shloer Chase Listed Cheltenham Preview Stats Review

Dec 5th Sat Tingle Creek Grade 1 Sandown Preview Review

Dec 27th Sun Desert Orchid Grade 2 Dec 27th Sun Dial-A-Bet Chase Grade 1 Kempton Leopardstown Preview Review Preview Review

Jan 16th Sat Clarence House Chase Grade 1 Ascot Preview Review

Jan 30th Sat Tied Cottage Chase Grade 2 Punchestown Review

Feb 6th Sat Game Spirit Chase Grade 2 Newbury Preview Review

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JLT Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 7th Sat Rising Stars Novice Chs Grade 2 Wincanton Preview Review

Nov 15th Sun Arkle Trial Novices Chs Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Nov 27th Fri Berkshire Novices Chs Grade 2 Newbury Nov 29th Sun Drinmore Nov Chs Grade 1 Review Fairyhouse Preview Review

Dec 5th Sat Henry VIII Novices Chs Grade 1 Sandown Preview Review

Dec 18th Fri Noel Novice Chase Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review Dec 26th Sat Racing Post Nov Chs Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 1st Fri Dipper Novice Chase Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Jan 16th Sat Altcar Novice Chase Grade 2 Haydock Review Jan 23rd Sat Arkle Novice Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 30th Sat Scilly Isles Novice Chs Grade 1 Sandown Preview Review Feb 7th Sun Flogas Novice Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review Feb 20th Sat Pendil Novice Chase Grade 2 Kempton Preview Review

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Ryanair Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Oct 25th Sun Old Roan Hcp Chase Grade 2 Aintree Review

Nov 3rd Tue Haldon Gold Cup Grade 2 Exeter Review

Nov 14th Sat Paddy Power Gold Cup Grade 3 Cheltenham Review

Nov 21st Sat Amlin Chase Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review

Dec 6th Sun Peterborough Chase Grade 2 Dec 6th Sun John Durkan Chase Grade 1 Huntingdon Punchestown Preview Review Preview Review

Dec 26th Sat King George VI Chase Grade 1 Kempton Preview Review

Dec 27th Sun Dial-A-Bet Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Feb 13th Sat Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Feb 13th Sat Red Mills Chase Grade 2 Ascot Gowran Park Preview Review Review

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World Hurdle Trail Preview & Review Available

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Oct 31st Sat West Yorkshire Grade 2 Wetherby Preview Review

Nov 21st Sat Coral Ascot Hurdle Grade 2 Ascot Preview Review

Nov 28th Sat Long Distance Grade 2 Nov 29th Sun Hatton's Grace Hdl Grade 1 Newbury Fairyhouse Preview Review Preview Review

Dec 12th Sat Relkeel Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Dec 19th Sat Long Walk Hurdle Grade 1 Ascot Preview Review

Dec 28th Mon Christmas Hurdle Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 23rd Sat Cleeve Hurdle Grade 2 Jan 21st Thu Galmoy Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Gowran Park Preview Review Review

Feb 13th Sat Rendlesham Hurdle Grade 2 Feb 14th Sun Boyne Hurdle Grade 2 Haydock Navan Preview Review Review

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Triumph Hurdle Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Nov 14th Sat Prestbury Juvenile Hdl Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Dec 12th Sat Summit Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 Doncaster Review

Dec 27th Sun Finale Hurdle Grade 1 Chepstow Preview Review

Jan 23rd Sat Finesse Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Feb 7th Sun Spring Juvenile Hdl Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Feb 20th Sat Adonis Juvenile Hurdle Grade 2 Kempton Preview Review

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Albert Bartlett Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Dec 12th Sat Bristol Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Jan 9th Sat Leamington Novice Hdl Grade 2 Warwick Review

Jan 16th Sat Rossington Novice Hdl Grade 2 Haydock Review

Jan 23rd Sat Classic Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Cheltenham Review

Jan 23rd Sat River Don Novices Hdl Grade 2 Doncaster Review

Feb 13th Sat Prestige Novice Hurdle Grade 2 Haydock Preview Review

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Gold Cup Trail

TRENDS PREVIEW REVIEW KEY NOTES

British Trail Irish Trail

Oct 31st Sat Charlie Hall Chase Grade 2 Oct 31st Sat JNwine.com Chase Grade 1 Wetherby Down Royal Preview Review Preview Review

Nov 21st Sat Betfair Chase Grade 1 Haydock Preview Review

Nov 28th Sat Hennessy Gold Cup Grade 3 Newbury Review

Dec 26th Sat King George V1 Chase Grade 1 Kempton Preview Review

Dec 28th Mon Lexus Chase Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

Jan 23rd Sat Cotswold Chase Grade 2 Cheltenham Preview Review

Feb 6th Sat Denman Chase Grade 2 Newbury Preview Review

Feb 7th Sun Hennessey Gold Cup Grade 1 Leopardstown Preview Review

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WEST YORKSHIRE GRADE 2 REVIEW

COLE HARDEN

1st November 2014 - Wetherby - This is a very willing horse with a really good attitude. Connections said that they couldn't pull him up until round the bend at Aintree where GS felt he could have gone even faster. The winner that day was all out at the line and looked tired. Here came tight round the final bend and kept finding for pressure. The two behind are not the quickest around but they are also two of the top few staying hurdlers at the moment. He should be even better on soft ground. Connections said he was fit after a race course gallop and it may be that the others were not quite so ready - time will tell.

AT FISHERS CROSS

1st November 2014 - Wetherby - he has never looked the easiest horse in the world and didn't again today. That said, this was quite good for him in comparison to his first runs of the last two seasons. He is always thereabouts but has now run seven times without success since his novice season.

MEDINAS

1st November 2014 - Wetherby - AK "working ok not expected to beat favourite" probably ran his race and will continue to pick up prize money in good events without ever being a horse I would want to back in a top race.

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LONG DISTANCE GRADE 2 PREVIEW

MORE OF THAT

He has opened up as the 2/5 favourite for the Long Distance Hurdle on the strength of his impressive World Hurdle win in March and also due to the fact that he is 10lbs and more clear of all of his rivals according to the official ratings.

At Cheltenham he won like a really good stayer for an inexperienced horse and, even though the runner up may not have quite lasted home, he still managed to beat At Fishers Cross and the rest very easily. The times of the race were good and compared very favourably with those in the on the same day.

He is proven at the top level, stays the trip well and has good winning form on very soft ground; furthermore, he has won all five of his career starts to date. The only concerns are that this is his seasonal debut and also, at the time of writing, the Jonjo O’Neil yard has had 12 losers in a row with only one horse in that sequence going close to winning.

COLE HARDEN

This is a very willing horse with a really good attitude. At Wetherby on his seasonal debut he made all to record an impressive eight length success in an exceptional time over Medinas who takes him on again today. At Fishers Cross was a further two and a half lengths back in third that day and a literal interpretation of that form would have Cole Harden as a 170+ rated hurdler. Of course, it is never as simple as that, and it may just be that Cole Harden was more ready for his first run in comparison to the other two.

When he ran second at Aintree in April he recorded another incredibly fast time and Warren Greatrex, speaking exclusively to beforetheoff.com, said that “his horse could not be pulled up until round the bend that day as opposed to the winner, Beat That, who was all out and looked tired at the line”.

Cole Harden could be even better on this testing ground in comparison to the sounder surface he competed on at Wetherby; moreover, he has winning form round Newbury and he is an uncomplicated ride, in that he goes from the front but is also happy enough if something wants to go faster.

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Further points in his favour are that he is race fit and, unlike the odds on favourite, he hails from a yard in the best of form. He has to beat and, although one can understand the World Hurdle winner opening up as a hot favourite, one would have to conclude that the 11/2 available with Hills for Cole Harden is an underestimation of his chances and is also a price that is unlikely to last.

LAC FONTANA

He had an excellent time of it for the Paul Nicholls stable last season. He won four races over hurdles including three at Cheltenham plus a grade one at Aintree in April. He was stepped up from the minimum trip for that last success at Aintree and appeared to stay the two and a half mile trip well on the good to soft ground that prevailed on the day. The second and third horses home have not done a lot to frank the form since embarking on their respective chase careers.

This is a huge step up in class and distance for the Paul Nicholls gelding. At Aintree the two horses that finished close up with him were rated 142 and 143 respectively, whilst, in the Long Distance Hurdle, he is being asked to take on the World Hurdle winner, More Of That who is rated 169, as well as the 158 rated Cole Harden from the Warren Greatrex yard. The last named will ensure this is a real test of stamina and the winner of this grade two hurdle race will certainly have to stay the three mile trip and stay it well.

MEDINAS

He is an experienced hurdler with 16 races to his name over the smaller obstacles. There is nothing hidden in his profile and what we can safely say is that he is a good class staying hurdler that ranks a few lengths below the very best. He does not have the win to run ratio of a potential champion but has been placed in 13 of his 18 races under rules.

In the 2013 Long Distance Hurdle he was under pressure for most of the race and inherited second spot when At Fishers Cross stumbled badly and lost all chance at the second last flight. He was beaten 17 lengths by Celestial Halo on the soft ground that day and has more on his plate here. Furthermore, his record over three miles reads: 4 P 2 2 7 2 – and one could argue that this will be as tough a challenge as he has faced over this sort of trip thus far.

Medina is trained by who, at the time of writing, has won with four from his last six runners. This is a point massively in his favour and suggests that, although he is far from the likeliest winner of this grade two contest, he will, nevertheless, probably run his race and pick up any pieces left by the two principles.

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REST OF THE FIELD

Presumably, Shotgun Paddy runs here in preparation for a return to chasing and a tilt at the Welsh National. He will be suited by the ground and the test of stamina and could pick up some useful prize money on this seasonal debut.

Peckhamecho and American Spin are surely entered in the hope of the race cutting up and, therefore, offering the chance of good money for completing the course.

CONCLUSIONS

This looks a relatively straightforward match between Cole Harden and the 2/5 favourite More Of That. If we could be certain that the favourite will be ready for this seasonal debut then he would probably hold the strongest claims here.

Even if the Jonjo O’Neil horse performs to his best in the Long Distance Hurdle he is no certainty to beat Cole Harden, and the discrepancy in their respective prices is clearly too big. Consequently, the question is more to do with how to play Cole Harden rather than whether or not to support him.

The safest way to play would be to back the Warren Greatrex horse at his current odds of 11/2 and then trade out pre-race for a small profit if he wins and return your stake if he is beaten. As an extra safeguard, in the unlikely circumstances of him starting at bigger than his current odds, his front running style will surely see him shorten up in running, especially as the odds on favourite will probably be held up out the back.

The other options would be to back him each way or back him to win whilst, at the same time, placing enough on the forecast for the favourite to beat him to cover your stakes.

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LONG DISTANCE GRADE 2 REVIEW

MEDINAS

29th November 2014 - Newbury - He was held up 10 lengths off the pace for most of the race and was ultimately the only one of the big three to be travelling at the last flight on this very soft ground. He has had 16 previous runs over hurdles so is rather unlikely to have suddenly improved beyond his previous best. This is far more likely to do with it being a small field race where the favourite presumably needed it. Until we gather information to the contrary this effort may put a marker next to the limits of the runner up (or, just as likely, he was ridden to beat the favourite). If we take out the favourite then the front two have pretty much run to their marks. The final circuit time by my reckoning was about 2 seconds slower than that set by Silsol in the previous race. This was the stable's fifth winner in four days and they won't always be in such good form.

COLE HARDEN

29th November 2014 - Newbury - He has run to his mark with Medinas which is a bit disappointing as, judging by his previous times, there looked more than a chance he would prove to be progressing beyond the King horse. That said, Medinas stayed 10 lengths off the pace which might be very significant, plus the King yard are in big form over this last few days which is another factor in the winners favour. The final circuit time of Cole Harden was approximately two seconds slower than Silsol's in the previous race.it is possible that he was a little below form here but more likely that he was ridden to beat the favourite and then had nothing in reserve for the later challenge.

MORE OF THAT

29th November 2014 - Newbury - He tracked the leader all the way and possibly paid for staying so close to the pace when finishing tired on this seasonal debut. He was racing against two race fit rivals here which probably played a part in his finishing position. If we took his winning margin over At Fishers Cross in the World Hurdle literally then he wouldn't have been in front of Cole Harden in the betting today based on the latter's Wetherby win last time out. This is the 16th loser in a row for the stable, which is something to monitor moving forward.

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RELKEEL GRADE 2 PREVIEW

ROCK ON RUBY

In his pomp he won the and he remains on a mark of 160 despite having won only one of his eight hurdle races since. To be fair he has run particularly well in one or two of those subsequent races particularly when going down narrowly to at Aintree in April on his penultimate start. As good as this effort was, I am far from convinced that the Twiston-Davies horse ran up to his best on the day and, therefore, I think it is a more reliable guide to compare with Diakali who finished next to him.

He appears especially well suited to racing on good ground and has form figures of: - 2 3 1 3 1 2 - when racing in such conditions over hurdles. He has competed over this sort of trip on five occasions without success and his best efforts in that sequence have been when racing on a faster surface. He holds obvious claims in this five runner race, not least because only two of his rivals could be described as being viable opponents. The major concern with him will be whether or not he will see out this trip if the ground gets particularly chewed up by the end of the day.

VOLNAY DE THAIX

He is rated 158 and, as such, has very little to find with the favourite according to the official handicap. He is versatile regarding the ground and has appeared to improve significantly since being stepped up in trip.

In his latest start he carried 12 stone in soft ground over three miles round Haydock. He made a big move three flights from the finish on a leader that still had plenty left in reserve and paid for it when his effort levelled out from the last. This drop in trip will probably be in his favour today.

He is a progressive horse from a top yard in good form and has every chance of putting it up to the hot favourite who is clearly on the decline. The one minor negative with Volnay de Thaix is that he endured a particularly tough race at Haydock just 21 days ago and it is always possible that this will take the edge off the level of his performance today.

LAC FONTANA

He finished pretty much where he should have last time at Ascot so his seasonal debut can be described as being no more than perfectly satisfactory. He has now

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finished well beaten by two top horses from the yard in his last two visits to the racecourse. Previously, he had beaten Splash Of Ginge by a hard fought length and a half in the Grade One Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree in April.

This performance would have to be regarded as a career high and implies that his current mark of 151 is at the upper limits of his ability level. He has good course form to his name but with his 4lb penalty he has it all to do giving weight to horses rated 160 and 158 respectively. Obviously, he is more likely to stay with the principles longer in a small field race and, if one or both of them run a little below par, he will be there to pick up the pieces.

REST OF THE FIELD

Brother Brian was receiving weight from Utopie Des Bordes last time out which puts his chances into perspective here as that mare would not be in the same league as ’s runner here. Saffron Wells will like the soft ground but the good news stops there as the only race he has won in 10 career starts was earned off a mark of 114.

CONCLUSIONS

Volnay De Thaix holds strong claims of beating the short priced favourite here. He is on the up and will be suited to the testing conditions that may well prevail at the end of the day. The worse the ground looks prior to this finale the more I would tend away from Rock On Ruby.

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RELKEEL GRADE 2 REVIEW

ROCK ON RUBY

13th December 2014 - Cheltenham - He took it up three out and won with plenty to spare. The runner up would have wanted softer ground so he probably didn't do anything out of the ordinary here particularly as he enjoyed a really positive trip round.

VOLNAY DE THAIX

13th December 2014 - Cheltenham - he would have needed softer ground to challenge the winner. This was a perfectly sound performance and he was simply beaten by a horse with more speed.

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LONG WALK HURDLE GRADE 1 PREVIEW

ZARKANDAR

He has appeared to be a particularly quirky horse over the last couple of years. He failed to win in six attempts last season although he did manage to finish runner up in four of those contests. He was stepped up to race over three miles in the World Hurdle at the . Here he was in trouble a long way out but stayed on powerfully into fourth place leaving the impression that he is probably just idiosyncratic irrespective of the trip. The final circuit time was 4.4 seconds quicker than the Pertemps Final and the final split was 1.9 faster.

In his first four races of last season he did not generally travel like a top horse and certainly not like one to trust in a finish. Likewise in his final two starts in the aforementioned World Hurdle and the which was his final outing. Since then Paul Nicholls has taken him to race in valuable contests in Auteuil with mixed success. He finished fifth and third before finally getting off the mark in a grade one hurdle race at the beginning of November, which was worth over £138.000 to the winner.

In that latest start he managed to turn his previous form around with Gemix by no less than 20 lengths. Depending on how you choose to view this difference, he has either improved significantly or remains an enigma!

In a recent interview Paul Nicholls stated that he had never had better than before his recent victory. He also said that the horse had been treated for ulcers and “they have helped turn him inside out. He is back on the gallop with a spring in his step and now I have got to keep him like that”.

MEDINAS

He managed a career best performance, at least according to official ratings, last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury. He was held up 10 lengths off the pace on the soft ground which probably worked in his favour as he was ultimately the only one of the big three to be travelling at the last flight. He has had 16 previous runs over hurdles so is rather unlikely to have suddenly improved beyond his previous best. In reality, the favourite probably ran below par as most have recently from the Jonjo O’Neill yard whilst Cole Harden was ridden to beat More Of That and had nothing left in reserve to fend off the late challenge of Medinas who was clearly galloped round to pick up the pieces. One more important point about this

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performance is that this was the stable’s fifth winner in four days and they will not always be in the middle of such a hot streak of form.

In the 2013 Long Distance Hurdle which was also run on soft ground, Medinas was under pressure for most of the way and inherited second spot due to At Fishers Cross making a serious blunder at the second last flight. He was flattered by this finishing position and yet was race fit which, to some extent, supports the notion that he is rather flattered by his last time out success. Moreover, that Newbury success was his first win in seven attempts and yet here he is trading as the 3/1 second favourite for the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle.

REVE DE SIVOLA

The strongest, and perhaps only, point in his favour here is that he has won the last two renewals of this contest. He has finished down the field and well beaten five times since his victory in the 2013 renewal of the Long Walk. In this losing sequence he has competed on his preferred testing ground on at least three occasions since his last win which shows that the reasons for his poor run of form lie deeper than just the state of the ground.

In his favour, Reve de Sivola was beaten by a long way in his prep run for this contest last season; it should be noted, however, that he had previously won a £135,000 race at Auteuil earlier that month. In contrast to last season he has achieved nothing in his latest five races that would offer any hope of success today. Perhaps the biggest plus in his favour, other than his obvious liking for this course and distance, is that his trainer has had a couple of winners in the last three days.

AUBUSSON

Last time out he made all the running to take the ‘Fixed Brush’ Hurdle at Haydock worth over £45,000 to the winner. He was given an excellent ride from the front, in that, his inexperienced jockey kept enough up her sleeves to cope with some big challenges up the home straight. Taking the riders claim into account, Aubusson competed off a mark of 134 at Haydock and will have to improve the best part of two stone to be competitive today.

The fact that Lizzie Kelly cannot use her allowance today diminishes his chances still further. On the plus side, he is a lightly raced hurdler open to improvement and, unlike two of his rivals in this five runner race; he is currently in the best of form. He will probably race prominently and could even lead the way again if Reve De Sivola

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does not make the running. At the time of writing he is much stronger in the market compared with his stable mate which might have some significance.

DELL’ ARCA

He returns to race over hurdles today having struggled somewhat over the larger obstacles. He is not the biggest horse in the world and I am rather disappointed to see him in the line up here as I was hoping to get the chance to oppose him as a short priced favourite in a race over big fences against apparently inferior opposition.

He has recently been stepped up to race beyond the minimum trip and there is nothing in his four attempts when competing over two and a half miles that suggests he is crying out for this sort of distance on soft ground. The pace should be strong today and it will be a major surprise to most, including probably his connections, if he were to be competitive in the finish.

CONCLUSIONS

The only way that Dell Arca can win here is if the other four runners all perform below their best; which is unlikely but possible in a race with more than one inconsistent horse in the line-up.

Reve De Sivola has won the Long Walk Hurdle in each of the last two seasons and his chances today are almost solely dependent on him only being able to produce his best form when running over this course and distance. This is certainly a possibility even though the percentage call would be to steer well clear of him until he shows some semblance of form.

Zarkandar probably has the strongest claims, which shows the weak looking nature of this contest as he has won just one race from his latest nine attempts and yet is generally available at 5/4 to win this grade one race. The strongest point in his favour is that he won last time out in what appears to be a much improved performance. Nevertheless, that still leaves us having to have a lot of faith in his trainer’s comment that he has been treated for ulcers and as a consequence is now a different horse at home. On the one hand, there is no reason to doubt this and, on the other, this is not substantial enough evidence to back him at such a short price.

Medinas will probably be ridden to pick up the pieces again and his overall record suggests that he is more likely to place than win. He has finished in the first two in eight of his last eleven races and has a good chance of doing so again here. He could

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be worth playing in the forecast market with whichever of his rivals is your preferred option.

Aubussson should run his race and, if he wins, I would suggest that his success will be more likely due to at least two of the three principles not running to form.

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LONG WALK HURDLE GRADE 1 REVIEW

ZARKANDAR

20th December 2014 - Ascot - He has now won one of his latest nine races and is currently the 12/1 fourth favourite for the World Hurdle. He travelled much better than usual here and pre-race assertions from the Nicholls camp regarding his well- being were, to that extent, proved correct. His effort in the finish, however, showed that he has not lost his quirky nature no matter how much he has improved at home. In stopping in front as he did, he merely reproduced a tendency that he has shown before. On the plus side he has travelled all over a horse that was running in a grade one contest that he has run away with in the previous two years. Perhaps, it should be noted, Reve De Sivola would have held even stronger claims on testing going as his 2012 triumph in the Long Walk took him 30 seconds longer than this one and his 2013 victory was run in a time more than 9 seconds slower than this 2014 renewal.

It is to Zarkandars credit that he was able to travel so well late on as Reve De Sivola recorded the same time (hand held stop watch only) from the fourth last to the line in comparison with Shelford who was carrying a stone less weight.

On the basis of this performance I would feel more confident that Zarkandar will travel better in the World Hurdle than he did in 2013 and, despite his quirky nature, his 12/1 price is much bigger than I would have him in the ante post market. After all, we know he is going for the race whereas More Of That has gone for a breathing operation and Beat That and Briar Hill are yet to re appear.

MEDINAS

20th December 2014 - Ascot - He was competing here just 21 days after the tough race he endured in the Newbury mud last time out. He is normally a horse that we can rely on to run his race in these top class events even though he would be unlikely to be my first choice to actually win one. I think this relatively quick return to the track is the most likely explanation for this below par effort. I feel far from certain about this even though, some credence is added to this supposition due to his poor displays behind Celestial Halo in November 13 and at Aintree in April 13 coming after respective breaks of 28 days and 24 days. To conclude, it is possible that his Long walk flop was, in part, to do with this being his third tough race in just 49 days.

He dropped out from the third last at the time the winner was really being driven to the extent that Reve De Sivola recorded the same time (hand held stop watch only)

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from the fourth last to the line in comparison with Shelford who was carrying a stone less weight.

REVE DE SIVOLA

20th December 2014 - Ascot - He is now three from three in the Long Walk and had to battle back against, it has to be said, a less than willing rival to land the spoils here. On balance, there is more reason to think he has run his race than not as he finished well clear of horses rated 153 and 157. There was plenty of talk about the World Hurdle after this race but surely the percentage call is for him to finish well beaten in that contest for the third year in a row. I suppose heavy ground in March might make one want to reconsider that view. However, it is not just the ground with him as this contest was run on good to soft. Moreover, if he were handicapped on his form away from Ascot he would never have reached a mark of 160+ (he may have gone close after the 2013 Cleeve but without his Ascot form he would have gone into that race off a sub 150 mark) and if we rated him on the balance of his latest three Cheltenham runs he would barely make a 155 hurdler.

AUBUSSON

20th December 2014 - Ascot - I would not give up on him in the highest class purely on the strength of this as he would have been more suited to racing on testing ground. He still has it all to prove in this grade one standard but this performance, in itself is no proof that he could not cope when he has his optimum conditions.

He dropped out from the third last at the time the winner was really being driven to the extent that Reve De Sivola recorded the same time (hand held stop watch only) from the fourth last to the line in comparison with Shelford who was carrying a stone less weight.

DELL' ARCA

20th December 2014 - Ascot - He never jumped with much fluency on this return to racing over hurdles and his performance offered little encouragement moving forward, and none whatsoever with regards to his chances of staying this three mile trip in future.

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WORLD HURDLE PREVIEW

SAPHIR DU RHEU

Last season, Saphir Du Rheu improved from a mark of 130 in December, 2013, to a rating of 165 in less than two months. He appeared to relish the step up in trip to race over two and a half miles plus and was also particularly effective when competing on soft ground. He won the Cleeve Hurdle in late January at Cheltenham after a real battle with the tough Reve De Sivola and the David Pipe trained Un Temps Pour Tout. On that last start Sam Twiston-Davies held onto him as long as possible with Saphir at the time still to prove his stamina for the three miles. There can be no doubts on that score after that contest as the pace was strong and the runner up was on a going day and is a most tenacious battler in such circumstances. Consequently, Saphir Du Rheu had to battle hard from the final hurdle to the line and any chinks in his stamina would surely have been exposed.

It is quite difficult to know where to mark the quality of this race. I think we have to take Reve De Sivola as our guide and the fact that he has not produced in two attempts in the World Hurdle makes this a more difficult equation than it should be. The most logical races to take as our guides are probably the previous two runnings of the Cleeve. In 2013, he narrowly beat the 167 rated ; the difficulty here is that this was the only positive performance that the ill-fated Henderson horse managed in three attempts over three miles. Last season, Reve De Sivola was well beaten in fourth place and ran to a mark in the mid to late 150s at best.

Even though Saphir Du Rheu is yet to prove he is top class, he may not have to be with the reigning champion, More Of That a confirmed non-runner and the current third favourite, Rock On Ruby having his stamina to prove. This might leave stable mate Zarkandar as his most difficult rival. It looks a very winnable race as things stand which might result in plenty of runners on the day including one or two dangers not yet on our minds.

ZARKANDAR

Nicholl’s charge has now won just one of his latest ten races and yet is currently challenging for favouritism for the Grade One World Hurdle. This is not to say that he does not hold a perfectly reasonable chance in the race, he probably does; what it does suggest, however, is that the 2015 World Hurdle is probably not a vintage renewal of this prestigious contest.

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In his latest defeat in the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot he travelled much better than usual during the contest and pre-race assertions from the Nicholls camp regarding his well-being were, to that extent, proved correct. His effort in the finish, however, showed that he has not lost his quirky nature, no matter how much he has improved at home. In stopping in front as he did, he merely exhibited a tendency that he has shown on more than one occasion previously.

On the plus side, he has travelled all over a horse in Reve De Sivola who was competing in the same grade one contest which he has run away with in the previous two years. Perhaps it should be noted that Reve De Sivola would have held even stronger claims at Ascot that day on testing going, as his 2012 triumph in the Long Walk took him 30 seconds longer to complete than this; furthermore, his 2013 victory was run in a time more than 9 seconds slower than this 2014 renewal.

It is to Zarkandar’s credit that he was able to travel so well late on as Reve De Sivola recorded the same time (hand held stop watch only) from the fourth last to the line in comparison with Shelford (in the handicap hurdle on the card) who was carrying a stone less weight.

On the basis of this performance I would feel more confident that Zarkandar will travel better in the World Hurdle than he did in 2013 and, despite his quirky nature, I think there is a good chance that he will be thereabouts in the finish. Nevertheless, he will clearly need the race to open up at exactly the right time for him to hold a strong winning claim.

ROCK ON RUBY

In his pomp the ten year old won the 2012 Champion Hurdle and he remains on a mark of 160 having been victorious in only three of his ten hurdle races since. To be fair he has also run particularly well in defeat in one or two of those subsequent races, particularly when going down narrowly to The New One at Aintree in April on his final outing of last season. As good as this effort was, I am far from convinced that the Twiston-Davies horse ran up to his best on the day and, therefore, I think it is a more reliable guide to compare Rock On Ruby with Diakali who finished next to him. This Oscar gelding appears especially well suited to racing on good ground and has form figures of: - 2 3 1 3 1 2 - when racing in such conditions over hurdles.

He finally got off the mark over an intermediate trip on his penultimate outing in the Grade Two at Cheltenham. He took it up three out and won with plenty to spare. The runner up, Volnay De Thaix would have wanted softer ground than he was racing on that day so Rock On Ruby probably didn't do anything out of the ordinary there, particularly as he enjoyed a really positive trip round. He followed

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this victory up with another success over the same course and distance on New Year’s Day. This was a very similar performance to his win in the Relkeel Hurdle and, although the softer ground was not in his favour, it was more against the runner up, Vaniteux who failed to get home and thus accentuated the winning margin. Harry Fry’s horse almost certainly benefitted from racing wide in comparison to Cole Harden who finished fast into third spot on that day.

Previously, he had competed over a distance of about two and a half miles on five occasions without success and his best efforts in that sequence had been when racing on a faster surface. Rock On Ruby now heads for the World Hurdle and could run well for a long way particularly on his favoured good ground. He has yet to race over three miles and, therefore, has plenty to prove in comparison with at least two or three of his rivals.

LIEUTENANT COLONEL

This gelding has now won four of his eight races over hurdles and has only finished out of the first three on one occasion when running a decent sixth behind in the 2014 Neptune Hurdle.

He stepped up in distance to compete over three miles for the first time on his latest outing at Leopardstown at the Christmas meeting. After a protracted battle all the way up the straight he just managed to wear down the trained Jetson close home. I am far from certain whether this form is, perhaps, as good as it appears to be.

Jetson had already run 23 times over hurdles and had shown beyond reasonable doubt that he was no more than a 145 hurdler. He was then given too much rope by the rest of the field in the Grade One World Series Hurdle at the 2014 Punchestown Festival and ended up rather pinching the race. Consequently, he was suddenly elevated to a mark of 154 on official ratings despite the evidence to the contrary from every single one of his previous 23 runs. Moreover, he was a nine-year-old at the time and hardly the most obvious candidate to show improvement.

The point is that Lieutenant Colonel is now rated 157 over hurdles on the strength of twice beating the much overrated Jetson; furthermore, on that last start he also had the grade two standard Monksland and the disappointing At Fishers Cross back in third and fourth place respectively.

Lieutenant Colonel ran closer to a mark of 147 than 157 in beating Jetson last time out in my opinion and, although he is young enough and certainly inexperienced

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enough to improve on what he has done thus far, he still appears to have more questions to answer compared with a couple of the horses trading just shorter than him in the World Hurdle. He looked to be a little behind the top horses in both his attempts at grade one novice hurdles at the 2014 spring festivals and will need to improve on what he has achieved thus far to be competitive in the finish here.

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT

This expensive French import ran the current World Hurdle favourite Saphir Du Rheu to less than three lengths on his seasonal debut in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in late January. If we were to rely purely on ‘pounds per lengths’ then the David Pipe horse has it all to do if he is to reverse this form in March.

The market move for him on the day suggested that the stable felt he was ready to win first time out. Therefore he might be less likely to improve for fitness compared with some seasonal debutants. He should be more suited to the better ground he is likely to race on in March and is likely to be at least more ‘match fit’ after that first effort. The World Hurdle probably only has half a dozen horses with relatively strong claims, however, and Un Temps Pour Tout is certainly one of them. He has good course and distance form to his name, should improve for racing on a sounder surface and he is likely to finish reasonably close to the current favourite for the race.

COLE HARDEN

Warren Greatrex’s gelding has finished fourth and third in his latest two prep runs at Cheltenham which is far from the ideal way to lead into the festival. Both of those races were run on softer ground than he is likely to encounter in the World Hurdle. The difficulty for Cole Harden is that he tends to hang to his left in his races and the only place to be on the hurdle course when the ground rides soft is on the outside. Consequently, his tendency to go left has almost certainly been a massive disadvantage in each of his latest two runs.

He finished well into third place behind Rock On Ruby on New Year’s Day and was beaten less than three lengths at the line over that two and a half mile trip. Hint Of Mint was the only horse to follow Cole Harden down the inside rail and was subsequently tailed off by the second last flight. The rest of the field, including the winner, Rock On Ruby, took a wider route. One cannot be absolutely sure how much he was disadvantaged on the day but I think it is safe to say that he did not benefit from staying on the inside route. As mentioned earlier, the place to be on this sort of ground would usually be towards the outside although this notion was not tested properly earlier on in the card. He did stay on particularly well in the final 100 yards

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which augers well for his chances here as he is the only one of this field that will definitely benefit from an extra half mile.

Last time out, Cole Harden finished well beaten behind Saphir Du Rheu, Reve De Sivola and Un Temps Pour Tout in the Cleeve Hurdle which is contested over the World Hurdle course and distance. Once again the soft ground was against him as he continually jumped to his left which resulted in him racing on slower ground compared to his rivals. If we take the finishing positions here literally then it would be difficult to make a case for him reversing the form in the World Hurdle. There are one or two factors massively in his favour, however, which leads me to keep him on my shortlist.

First of all, he had a wind operation immediately after his last run from which he may show some improvement and which also could reduce his tendency to go left. Having watched the last five runnings of the World Hurdle and the Pertemps Final (same course and distance same day) not one horse took the wide route in any of those ten races. It is difficult to quantify how disadvantaged Cole Harden has been in his latest two efforts at Cheltenham but the fact that, given good to soft ground, he is likely to be competing off a level playing field on the inside rail in the World Hurdle is a massive point in his favour.

REST OF THE FIELD

Reve De Sivola has perfectly reliable looking form with the current World Hurdle favourite Saphir Du Rheu and is priced up at about 20/1 due to his previous festival form. His chances will be more obvious if the ground rides soft on the third day of the meeting. Blue Fashion has only managed to race twice in two years whilst in the care of Nicky Henderson. He is clearly a rather delicate horse but his form is very good and would give him some sort of a chance providing his connections can get him to line up in rude health on the day.

Annie Power is apparently fairly certain to run in the mares’ race but would probably be promoted to favourite for the World Hurdle if Willie Mullins re-routed her, whilst Briars Hill, Jetson and Monksland have not looked good enough of late. Finally, Whisper returns to race over hurdles having disappointed in his one chase run to date. His form at Aintree with At Fishers Cross may not look quite as good as it did at the time but would still give him perfectly sound place claims.

CONCLUSIONS

Un Temps Pour Tout needs to improve to reverse the form with the favourite, even though the form he showed on his seasonal debut could still be good enough to see him finish thereabouts. Personally, I prefer the claimhs of Saphir Du Rheu and can

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also see that an each way bet on the Pipe horse at abouth 12/1, although it is not for me, would not be the worst punting decision of anyone’s life.

Although I think the form of Lieutenant Colonel is overrated it could still be good enough for him to be competitive in what appears to be a sub-standard renewal of the World Hurdle.

I have played Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar in some each way multiple bets. As a duo they are nowhere near as strong as the pair in the Champion Hurdle; each of them hold winning chances, however, and it would be a surprise if both the Paul Nicholls’ horses finished out of the three.

We can only guess as to whether or not Rock On Ruby will stay this extended trip. From a financial point of view, I don’t think we need to concern ourselves too much with this dilemma as he presents a fairly simple trading opportunity. He looks certain to travel extremely well in the race for as long as his stamina lasts and it would be a real surprise if he did not shorten up in running. Personally, I will not be very aggressive with this trade and will be happy to cover my overall stakes on the race or at best make a small profit, should Rock On Ruby prevail.

As a rule of thumb, if one has reason to believe that a horse at a big price can be thereabouts in the finish then he must be backed. For reasons stated in his profile I have had a reasonably strong each way bet on Cole Harden at his current odds of 33/1. I may well supplement my investment on him on the day of the race, assuming the ground rides no worse than good to soft; given this scenario this prominent runner will also surely trade a lot shorter than his current elevated price at some point during the race.

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WORLD HURDLE REVIEW

COLE HARDEN

12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - Even though the third home was said to be unlucky Cole Harden won with such authority that it is hard to think that Zarkandar would have troubled him without that late mistake. He made all and surged clear well before the final hurdle. He was not perfect over at least three hurdles so did not enjoy an absolute perfect trip himself. When GS got off him at Aintree last season he could not pull him up until right round the bend and said that he should and could have gone faster. He did that today so will presumably be equally aggressive at Aintree offering, at least the possibility, of a very simple trade - providing of course that the market does not overreact too much to this win. I think that one could go either way as Nicholls will want to have another go and this horse had looked very vulnerable prior to this effort. In my opinion any doubts about him at Aintree will be more to do with whether or not this has taken too much out of him rather than any threat from a particular rival.

ZARKANDAR

12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - He was travelling supremely well when making a terrible mistake two out. He probably lost as much ground as he was beaten by; on the other hand, the winner did look to have more to give. PN kept him fresh for this race so it will be open to debate whether or not he can keep his form as well at Aintree - 50/50 I think. There is no doubt that he should be treated as a new horse since he has had his problems dealt with. He is still very likely to need things go his way in the finish but I would be fairly confident that he will continue to travel like a good horse in future - at least until he shows otherwise!

SAPHIR DU RHEU

12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - He looked a little one paced on this ground and would have preferred more cut.

AT FISHERS CROSS

12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - Just the two mistakes today and a very different ride as AP held him up out the back. He is a horse that could skint you and, on the other hand, it is possible that now that he has had his various physical ailments dealt with he could in theory improve on this at Aintree. On balance, I would prefer to be against him rather than with him but a big price could easily change my mind on him at least as a potential saver.

WHISPER

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12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - His interrupted preparation cannot have helped him here. Moreover, I am not sure he quite stays this trip up the hill. I would probably tend to mark him up for Aintree.

UN TEMPS POUR TOUT

12th March 2015 - Cheltenham - I am not sure whether I would prefer him on good or soft ground - I will monitor that one for a bit longer. He is likely to continue to look below top class on either. The form of the Cleeve hurdle worked out well here and he, broadly speaking, ran to a similar level with Saphir in both races.

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WORLD HURDLE TRENDS

POSITIVES

 10 winners from the last 18 renewals had previously won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.  9 winners from the last 18 renewals ran over 3 miles in their most recent race which is 15% higher than market expectations.  Horses with a “Held Up” running style have won 11 from the last 18 renewals which is 14% better than expected.  15 from the last 18 winners were aged 6, 7 or 8.  14 from the last 18 winners were in the first 4 in the betting.  14 from the last 18 winners had no racecourse run in the last month.  British and French Bred horses have won 14 of the 18 renewals which is 29% above market expectations.

TRAINER TRENDS

Trainer Runs Wins Win S/R P/L to SP EX Wins A/E Chi Scr Win & Plc Win & Plc S/R Paul Nicholls 15 4 26.67 -2.43 2.39 1.67 1.28 7 46.67 Howard Johnson 6 3 50.00 8.38 0.84 3.56 6.44 3 50.00 F Doumen 10 2 20.00 -4.13 2.45 0.82 0.11 5 50.00 Jonjo O'Neill 13 2 15.38 1.00 0.97 2.06 1.18 3 23.08 Alan King 14 1 7.14 -5.00 0.95 1.05 0.00 5 35.71 Nicky Henderson 15 1 6.67 -8.50 1.30 0.77 0.08 2 13.33 Warren Greatrex 1 1 100.00 14.00 0.06 17.80 16.80 1 100.00 Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 0 0.00 -10.00 0.35 0.00 0.37 1 10.00 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0 0.00 Nick Williams 4 0 0.00 -4.00 0.26 0.00 0.28 0 0.00 Venetia Williams 5 0 0.00 -5.00 0.54 0.00 0.61 1 20.00 4 0 0.00 -4.00 0.17 0.00 0.17 0 0.00 W P Mullins 18 0 0.00 -18.00 1.05 0.00 1.12 3 16.67 Rebecca Curtis 2 0 0.00 -2.00 0.14 0.00 0.15 1 50.00 David Pipe 7 0 0.00 -7.00 0.41 0.00 0.44 1 14.29 Donald McCain 2 0 0.00 -2.00 0.06 0.00 0.07 0 0.00 Henry Daly 4 0 0.00 -4.00 0.50 0.00 0.57 3 75.00

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CHAMPION CHASE TRENDS

POSITIVES

 Irish bred horses have won 8 from 18 previous renewals, 9% better than expected.

 Focus on the market principles; horses 4/1 or lower in the betting are 12 from 18 previous renewals, 8% more likely than expected.

 17 of the last 18 winners had no racecourse runs in the last month.

 14 of the last 18 winners were either 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the betting.

 16 of the last 18 winner ran in a non-handicap race last time out.

 15 of the last 18 winners ran in a Class 1 race last time out.

 11 of the last 18 winners finished 1st last time out.

 14 of the last 18 ran in a Grade 1 or 2 race last time out.

TRAINER TRENDS

Trainer Runs Wins Win S/R P/L to SP EX Wins A/E Chi Scr Win & Plc Win & Plc S/R Paul Nicholls 28 5 17.86 -9.76 4.55 1.10 0.05 9 32.14 Nicky Henderson 10 2 20.00 -3.75 1.83 1.09 0.02 3 30.00 Mrs John Harrington 5 2 40.00 0.25 1.44 1.39 0.31 2 40.00 Gary Moore 2 1 50.00 1.75 0.48 2.10 0.76 1 50.00 Philip Hobbs 7 1 14.29 -4.25 0.62 1.61 0.25 3 42.86 7 1 14.29 4.00 0.91 1.10 0.01 4 57.14 Alan King 3 1 33.33 3.00 0.43 2.34 0.89 2 66.67 Nigel Twiston-Davies 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.06 0.00 0.07 0 0.00 Noel Meade 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.19 0.00 0.20 0 0.00 Mick Channon 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.10 0.00 0.11 2 66.67 W P Mullins 5 0 0.00 -5.00 0.27 0.00 0.29 0 0.00 Venetia Williams 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.11 0.00 0.11 0 0.00 Tom Tate 3 0 0.00 -3.00 0.46 0.00 0.54 1 33.33 David Pipe 6 0 0.00 -6.00 0.77 0.00 0.88 1 16.67

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CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE GRADE 1 PREVIEW

Nicky Henderson’s star chaser will line up in the Clarence House Chase after an absence of more than a year away from the racecourse. It is to be hoped that his well-documented heart irregularities are behind him and he returns to his best form here at Ascot. If he runs close to his best he will win this race extremely easily and his current price of around ‘Even Money’ will appear very generous post-race. He has won all ten of his completed chases and his highest rating of 188 puts him 23lbs clear of his rivals. The outcome of this listed contest is clearly completely dependent on the well-being of arguably the best Champion Chaser we have seen in a long time. During the summer of 2013 he had a small wind operation and prior to being pulled up at Kempton on his latest start he was taken out of the as his connections were clearly not happy with him even at that earlier stage in the season. The last time we have evidence of his well-being is April 2013 when he beat at Punchestown. This is almost 21 months ago; therefore, although we all hope he performs to his best at Ascot, it will still be some achievement by all concerned should he prevail in the face of such adversity.

Last time out put in a career high performance when taking the Grade One Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in early December. He ended up winning it well as he stayed on too strongly for the runner up. He could not have asked for a more 'reliable' horse to be his target in that Somersby has a fantastic record of finishing second. It was noticeable how McCoy slowed the pace down on Somersby from after the railway fences which caused the field to concertina and also offered an advantage to those on the front end that did not have to work to close the gap. If he is in the same form again for the Clarence House Chase he will finish second at worst.

Dodging Bullets will need the race to open up for him at the right time; nevertheless, the fact that Somersby and/or Twinlight are likely to set the pace offers him a better chance of delivering his challenge as late as possible. He acts well on soft ground, has a terrific record pre-new year and, if he can take that level of form into the early part of the New Year then he should be the one that the hot favourite has to beat.

Somersby has finished placed in 14 of his 25 completed chases to date. Last time out he once again finished second in a high class race when he chased home Dodging Bullets in the Grade One Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. He made most

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of the running under McCoy that day and, given how well he ran, it would be no surprise to see those tactics repeated today.

Since winning an uncompetitive four runner chase at Sandown in December 2009, his record when racing on soft or heavy ground over fences reads: 2 3 4 U 2 2 – and he has finished well beaten in four of those five completed starts. As a general rule of thumb the softer the ground, the easier to mark Somersby down and the more it dries out the stronger his claims. He has performed well in most of his chases round Ascot which is a point in his favour here.

The Mullins horse has finished in the first three in 12 of his 14 completed chases and has won six graded races in that sequence including the Grade One Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown last time out in late December. He has done remarkably well to finish close up on so many occasions because his chasing career has definitely been clouded by far too many jumping errors. He has jumped out to the right in each of his two victories this season which may not be such a disadvantage round Ascot.

The only other time he has raced in was a year ago in the WILLIAMHILL.COM CHASE at Kempton. In that listed contest he made one serious mistake down the far side as well as a few less obvious ones. Otherwise he would probably have finished a good second behind the high class Captain Chris. He will need to improve significantly on that display to cope with Ascot’s fences and, therefore, to figure in the finish in the Clarence House Chase. His record suggests he is the most likely of this field to make the pace.

Although Grey Gold has plenty to find according to official ratings he is well suited to racing on heavy ground and, for that reason alone, he may well beat one or two higher rated horses home.

I am sure most, if not all pundits will agree that Sprinter Sacre will win this contest if he is close to his best 21 months after his last positive visit to a racecourse.

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From a betting angle, the more interesting poser is what will happen if is not happy with his mount at any point in the race. Surely, the answer to this question is that he will take absolutely no chances with the stable’s star performer and pull him up immediately.

Therefore, for those of us willing to oppose the hot favourite it would surely make more sense to take a more speculative approach and back our particular fancy in the forecast markets. If the choice is to back Dodging Bullets at 5/2 or to back him to beat the other three contenders at a slightly greater risk (it is obviously possible that Sprinter Sacre will finish second) but a massively increased reward – I think I would prefer the latter.

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TINGLE CREEK GRADE 1 PREVIEW

Balder Succes has yet to compete in a chase with a double figure field size and this could turn out to be a crucial variable for him as he did appear to struggle when competing against more rivals over hurdles; He holds strong claims of winning the Tingle Creek but is trading a bit short at 5/2. Gods Own, at first glance, appears overpriced at 4/1 compared with the best price of 5/2 available on the Alan King favourite. Personally, however, I think the market has got it right, at least in terms of the order, as Balder Succes appears more likely to be suited to the sharp track and minimum trip.

This is a wide open looking contest with no stand out contender and one can understand why Oscar Whisky has been entered; it is, however, difficult to see anything in his profile to recommend him for the challenges he will face at Sandown. The percentage call has to be that he will struggle to jump well enough to stay with the field over this minimum trip. On his only previous try over fences at Sandown he never travelled or jumped with any fluency over the two and a half mile plus trip and ultimately probably won more by his keen running rival (the 138 rated Manyriverstocross) running out of gas. Vukovar has only run three times in England for Harry Fry and yet is trading at 7/1 for this grade one contest. This is even more astounding when one considers that he has only won one of those three chases and will now be competing in a better standard event.

As a general rule of thumb the softer the ground, the easier to cross Somersby off our list and the more it dries out the stronger his claims. Whilst, Dodging Bullets will need the race to open up for him at the right time; nevertheless, the likely fast pace offers him a better chance of delivering his challenge as late as possible. He acts well on soft ground, has a terrific record pre-new year and, although his profile suggests he is just shy of top class, he may not need to be to be competitive here. Hinterland is an inconsistent horse that has had problems with his breathing and has also bled in the past. His claims for the grade one chase are based, in the main, on his performance in the Henry V111 Chase on this card in 2013 when his sectional times compared favourably with in the Tingle Creek Chase on the same day. If Hinterland is in the same form as he showed on this card in 2013 he would be a danger to all.

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Balder Succes will have plenty in his favour and would be my idea of the horse with the best chance of winning. I do not, however, see him as a betting proposition at odds of about 5/2 when he has one or two minor doubts lurking within his profile. His poor record in big field races over hurdles is a small concern as is the fact that God’s Own has beaten him in each of his latest two starts. The Tom George charge has reasonable claims of doing so again here even though, on balance, I personally prefer the chances of Balder Succes.

The more the ground dries out, the stronger I would view Somersby’s chances of finishing in the places. Whilst the two Paul Nicholls runners are probably the most attractively priced in the race, Hinterland’s claims are based on more flimsy evidence in comparison to the relatively reliable profile of Dodging Bullets. The last named has an excellent strike rate at this time of year and I think there is a more than reasonable chance that he will be thereabouts in between the final two fences.

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TINGLE CREEK GRADE 1 REVIEW

DODGING BULLETS/SOMERSBY

6th December 2014 - Sandown - He ended up winning it well as he stayed on too strongly for the runner up. He could not have asked for a more 'reliable' horse to be his target in that Somersby has a fantastic record of finishing second. Dodging Bullets is not known for his battling qualities in a finish but, perhaps, was up against a less willing rival than himself here. It was noticeable how AP slowed the pace down on Somersby from after the railway fences which caused the field to concertina and also offered an advantage to those on the front end that did not have to work to close the gap.

By my watch the times relative times for the Henry Vii in relation to the Tingle Creek taken through Dunraven Storm and Somersby were: First fence to the third fence - TC two seconds quicker. Third fence to the last railway fence - level. From there to the second last fence - Henry over one second quicker. From second last to the last fence - Henry half a second quicker, from the last to the line - Henry one second quicker.

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SHLOER CHASE (LISTED RACE) PREVIEW

MODULE

Determining how and why a horse has acquired his current handicap mark and ascertaining how relevant this is to the qualities required to win the race in question today, is an important part of the research process. In the case of Module, he jumped from 145 to 152 after running past beaten horses in the 2013 Jewson Chase. He was never able to get into that contest with any chance of winning and his elevated finishing position has far more to do with the two market leaders, Dynaste and Captain Conan, not getting home after being asked a big question far too early.

Likewise, in the Champion Chase, where he was ridden for a place and benefitted from the fact that Sizing Europe tired badly up the hill after attempting to win the race. As a consequence of this effort Module was raised from a mark of 157 to 164 which is the rating he will compete off today. Of course, this is not a handicap so it is the penalty system for the Shloer Chase rather than his mark which has determined he carries top weight here. However, clearly his place in the market is, at least in part, a reflection of his current rating in comparison with today’s rivals.

Module reverts to the minimum trip here after his disappointing effort in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in late October. He drifted ominously pre-race and was never really travelling before finishing a distant seventh of nine finishers. He ran so badly that the extra half mile he raced over that day played no part in the quality of his performance. The Tom George stable were just beginning to hit form at the time of his last outing and are now (at the time of writing) in the middle of a purple patch having scored with seven of their last 18 horses that have managed to complete the course.

SIMPLY NED

He was raised 4lbs to his current mark of 161 after taking a weakly contested handicap chase at Kelso where he beat rivals rated 132, 135, 135 and 140 respectively. His previous rating of 157 was ‘earned’ after his second place finish in the Grade One Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree in April. On that day he was the

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only horse to run a race from off the pace. He was held up in last place and jumped well apart from a poor jump half way down the back.

This was a typically improved run from a Nicky Richards horse kept fresh for Aintree. It could well be that he is flattered due to not many running their races on the day; therefore, he is likely to be overrated on the strength of this, particularly since his Aintree performance rates as being well clear of his second best ever run. He obviously cannot be totally ruled out of the Shloer Chase, after all, as we have witnessed in recent weeks, his potentially better class rivals today are by no means certain of running to their best at this early stage of the season.

Simply Ned presumably ran at Kelso to prime him for today and, as such, is very likely to run to his best in the Shloer Chase. However, he has been raised from a mark of 148 to a rating of 161 on the strength of one potentially flattering run and one easy victory in a minor race against relatively low grade handicappers. Therefore, I remain suspicious that ‘his best’ lies some way below his current elevated mark.

UXIZANDRE

Last time out at in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, he appeared to have plenty in his favour in a race that looked his for the taking. The one niggling doubt on the day was that his trainer Alan King had mentioned the Paddy Power Chase as a possible next step after the Aintree run; clearly, there would be no way he would have lined up in that competitive handicap off a mark in the mid-160's as a result of winning the Old Roan. Interestingly, the check pieces were left off on that day and importantly, are re-fitted today.

Previously, he finished a close second to Taquin Du Seuil in the 2014 Grade One Jewson Chase and followed that excellent effort up with a similarly good one when taking the Grade One Manifesto Chase at Aintree in April. The winner’s final circuit time in the Jewson at Cheltenham was approximately 1.8 seconds quicker than the one achieved by Dynaste in the on the same day.

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He travelled well on his seasonal debut at Aintree even though he didn’t quite last home on the day after racing keenly in the early part of the race. Now that he has the cheek pieces back on, I would expect him to improve significantly from that first run. The question mark with him is whether or not he will handle this drop down in trip. The recent rain is, therefore, in his favour.

DODGING BULLETS

He was probably a little unfortunate not to win the 2014 Grade Two Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February. One would imagine that if had his time again he would delay his challenge that bit longer as Dodging Bullets looked the winner as he took it up at the last flight before getting caught near the finish. The winner, Module, would have been more suited to the testing conditions that prevailed on the day.

He ran twice more after February at Cheltenham, where he ran to his best when finishing fourth in the Grade One Arkle Chase, and at Aintree in April where he ran badly for the third year in a row at that meeting. Conversely, his pre-new year form over the last two seasons as a hurdler and a novice chaser reads: 1 1 3 1 1 1 – and his only defeat in this sequence came in the Grade One Christmas Hurdle at Kempton which he competed in as a novice.

He is clearly below top class but will not necessarily need to be a Grade One Chaser to win this contest. He holds strong claims, particularly as he appears more likely to be ready to run to his best in comparison with one or two of the others towards the head of the market. Furthermore, at the time of writing, the Paul Nicholls yard are in a rich vein of form having sent out 13 winners from the last 30 stable representatives to have completed the course.

CONCLUSIONS

It is rather surprising to see Simply Ned trading as the favourite for this race in the early exchanges. I would have thought it likely that he will drift at some point from his opening show of 9/4.

Dodging Bullets and Uxizandre are my idea of the two likeliest winners of this race. Furthermore, I also prefer the chances of Module in comparison to the current favourite. I am not for a moment suggesting that Simply Ned cannot win this listed contest; nonetheless, unlike each of his three main rivals today, he would have to put in a career best performance to prevail in the Shloer Chase.

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SHLOER CHASE (LISTED RACE) REVIEW

DODGING BULLETS

16th November 2014 - Cheltenham - He travelled and jumped well and moved up smoothly to challenge the leader after the third last fence. He was upsides until the last where the winner kicked on and it may well be that STD showed his hand too early on board a horse not known for his battling qualities. I would imagine that PN would have preferred his horse to be tucked in then brought out to challenge for one surge after the last. The way this race unfolded he was having to battle from a long way out against a tenacious rival that had enjoyed a fairly easy lead so was likely to have plenty left. To be fair to STD this easy lead may just be the reason he felt he needed to make the winner work from further out - it is just that, in an ideal world he could have done with someone else doing that donkey work. It was noticeable how easy STD was on him from the last in comparison with the runner up. He can be marked up as easily the second best horse on the day and the fact that PN thought he was in perfect nick and would have had a good chance of beating Sire De Grugy suggests, he will not improve on this and also that this form might be better than the ratings suggest

UXIZANDRE

16th November 2014 - Cheltenham - He benefitted from a relatively easy lead which is unlikely to always be the case over this minimum trip. This variable could be crucial to his chances when racing over two miles. He jumped very well and travelled easily out in front. He is very clever over his fences as he got in a short a couple of times and also appeared to take off a stride early at, at least one fence. An excellent performance from a horse that is likely to be better still over further. The eventual third was fighting fit and the runner up was easily outpaced before being given a really strong ride to close within two lengths at the line. He looked impressive here but the key is whether he will do the same over this trip when taken on for the lead.

SIMPLY NED

16th November 2014 - Cheltenham - he was held up out the back before making good headway to track the three leaders from the third last fence. He was outpaced by the front two but then stayed on past the tiring Dodging Bullets under an extremely aggressive ride by Brian Harding. He must have given him at least seven

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or eight hard clouts after the last flight and obviously wanted the runner up spot more than the jockey on the second horse.

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GAME SPIRIT CHASE GRADE 2 REVIEW

MR MOLE

7th February 2015 - Newbury - This makes it four wins in a row for this rather enigmatic gelding. He still clearly has his quirks as he almost refused to start before McCoy persuaded him otherwise. I would remain wary of his temperament and also his ability to stay with a Champion Chase pace run on a faster surface. This race was ridden to suit as Uxizandre rushed to the front and then slowed the pace down which, in turn, allowed Mr Mole to make up the lost ground without expending too much energy. The fact that ran this two miles plus quicker than Uxizandre supports the supposition that Mr Mole will face a completely different challenge at Cheltenham.

SIRE DE GRUGY

7th February 2015 - Newbury - He is apparently still on target for March but, whichever way you look at it, this was not the prep they would have wanted for the reigning champion.

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CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE GRADE 1 REVIEW

DODGING BULLETS/SPRINTER SACRE

17th January 2015 - Ascot - The Clarence House Chase was run in a very fast time through the efforts of Somersby who paid for his front running exertions by weakening badly up the home straight. Dodging Bullets ran approximately seven seconds quicker from the first until the fourth last in comparison with Fox Appeal who ran in the following race carrying 5lbs more. They then ran a similar time from the fourth last until the line which reinforces the supposition that the Clarence House field went very fast before gradually slowing down. I know this is quite a usual scenario for a lot of races but it does offer some understanding of how and why Dodging Bullets was jumped past by the favourite four out and then was made to look relatively slow as Sprinter Sacre was travelling easily the best as he moved two lengths clear three out. At this point, if we had no pre-race notions regarding the fitness of the favourite I think he would have been something like a 1/3 or 2/7 chance after the third last fence. It was interesting to hear BG say post-race that he knew he was running on empty turning in and it was only his excellent leap two out which kept him in it longer. That said, BG did not sound convinced that he would turn the form around in March.

Those sectionals are interesting in that they support the possibility that Sprinter Sacre tiring played as much a part in the outcome of this race as any other factor.

The pundits and jockeys involved in the post-race discussions were generally in agreement that Dodging Bullets posted a career best here as he had also done last time out at Sandown. Therefore, this will now become a more commonly held view and, indeed, will now be seen as a given by many.

In my opinion, although it is a very plausible conclusion, this is not something we could be definitive about for a number of reasons; firstly, Sprinter Sacre is not a safe variable to be using for comparison purposes as, at least in theory, he could have run to his best here - a 188 effort - or run well below his best to a figure that would be hard to quantify. The relative performances of Somersby both here and at Sandown could easily be misleading. Here he was given a very aggressive ride on going that would be far softer than ideal. In contrast, his jockey was able to slow the pace down

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at Sandown (again on unsuitably soft ground) before kicking on again after the third last - this manoeuvre almost certainly resulted in him enjoying a far more advantageous trip than he did at Ascot.

Moreover, I do not believe that Somersby's 160 plus mark is especially reliable as he has not won for a long time and, the way he finishes his races (or rather doesn't!!), he is just as likely to finish second to a 155 horse as he is a 165 horse. To add a further question mark to the situation I think it is fair to say that Twinlight is at best a 157 horse on all bar one of his races and his apparent improvement last time out is surely far more likely to do with things simply falling into place for him on the day.

It would be remiss looking ahead to March without taking into account the spring festival form of Dodging Bullets. In the last three seasons at Cheltenham and Aintree he has posted figures of: 4 6 9 7 4 5 - which is an uninspiring record for a horse trading at such a short price for a Champion Chase. His form is so much better in the early part of the season and he has generally performed best when racing as a fresh horse. He holds an excellent record when making his seasonal debut which begs the question - why would you back Dodging Bullets when his Cheltenham conqueror Uxizandre is currently trading at four times the price non-runner no bet?

SOMERSBY

17th January 2015 - Ascot - He was ridden aggressively from the front and the sectionals imply McCoy was unable to get much of a breather into him. His record on this sort of ground is far from brilliant; therefore, I wouldn't be in too much of a hurry to use his dubious 160+ rating to pitch the level of this form.

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CHAMPION CHASE PREVIEW

SPRINTER SACRE

This son of Network is probably the best two mile chaser we have seen for quite some time. At his best he was streets ahead of his nearest rivals and in his pomp he won the 2013 Champion Chase by 19 lengths from Sizing Europe who, in turn finished clear of the rest.

He has suffered from a well-documented heart problem since then which is why he only returned to race in the middle of January after an absence of more than a year. The Clarence House Chase at Ascot was the chosen target for his return and it is our reading of this contest, rather than his earlier form, that should take precedence when calculating Sprinter Sacre’s chances in the 2015 Champion Chase.

The Clarence House Chase was run in a very fast time through the efforts of Somersby, who paid for his front running exertions by weakening badly up the home straight. Dodging Bullets ran approximately seven seconds quicker from the first fence until the fourth last in comparison with the 149 rated chaser Fox Appeal who ran in the following race carrying 5lbs more. They then ran a similar time from the fourth last until the line which reinforces the supposition that the Clarence House field went very fast before gradually slowing down. I know this is quite a usual scenario for a lot of races but it does offer some understanding of how and why Dodging Bullets was jumped past by the favourite four out and then was made to look relatively slow as Sprinter Sacre was travelling easily the best as he moved two lengths clear three out. At this point, if we had no pre-race notions regarding the fitness of the favourite I think he would have been something like a 1/3 or 2/7 chance after the third last fence. It was interesting to hear Barry Geraghty say post-race that he knew he was running on empty turning in and it was only his excellent leap two out which kept him in it longer.

These sectionals are significant in that they support the probability that Sprinter Sacre tiring played much the biggest part in the outcome of this race compared with any other factor. It is difficult to know whether or not Sprinter will ever return to close to his best form – probably not would be my guess; however, in my opinion, the greatest challenge his connections face in Sprinter Sacre turning this form around will be whether or not they can get him there on the day fit and well. If they succeed and he does line up for the Champion Chase he will hold very strong claims of justifying his place ahead of the Nicholls horse in the market.

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DODGING BULLETS

After the Clarence House Chase at Ascot the pundits and jockeys involved in the post-race discussions were generally in agreement that Dodging Bullets had just posted a career best and also concurred that his Tingle Creek victory had also been, at the time, his top racing performance. The implication from these assessments is that we now have a new improved and more mature version of Dodging Bullets. When the handicapper also agrees with this supposition it will inevitably become a more commonly held view and, indeed, will now be seen as a given by many. The response to this type of media exposure is that the horse in question (in this case Dodging Bullets) is likely to trade shorter than his profile merits

In my opinion, although these are very plausible conclusions, the relative qualities of the Ascot and Sandown chases is not something we could be definitive about, for a number of reasons; to begin with, Sprinter Sacre is not a safe variable to be using for comparison purposes on his first start for over a year as, at least in theory, he could have run to his best here - a 188 effort - or run well below his best to a figure that would be hard to quantify. The relative performances of Somersby at Ascot and at Sandown could easily be misleading. In the Clarence House he was given a very aggressive ride on going that would be far softer than ideal. In contrast, McCoy was able to slow the pace down from the fourth last flight in the Tingle Creek Chase (again on unsuitably soft ground) before kicking on again after the third last, this manoeuvre almost certainly resulting in him enjoying a far more advantageous trip than he did at Ascot.

Moreover, I do not believe that Somersby's 160 plus mark is especially reliable as he has not won for a long time and, the way he finishes his races (or rather doesn't!!), he is just as likely to run second to a 155 horse as he is a 165 horse. To add a further question mark to the level of the Ascot form I think it is fair to say that Twinlight is at best a 157 horse, based on all bar one of his races and his apparent improvement at Leopardstown in late December is surely far more likely to do with things simply falling into place for him on the day, not least due to the first two favourites running so badly.

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It would be remiss looking ahead to March without taking into account the spring festival form of Dodging Bullets. In the last three seasons at Cheltenham and Aintree he has posted figures of: 4 6 9 7 4 5 - which is an uninspiring record for a horse trading at such a short price in a Champion Chase. It is more than possible that the pundits and jockeys were correct in their conclusions that Dodging Bullets is indeed a much improved horse this season; even if he is, however, his six below par efforts in March and April have clearly not been given enough credence for him to be trading around the 4/1 mark for this grade one contest.

CHAMPAGNE FEVER

This eight-year-old gelding has a very interesting profile coming into the 2015 Cheltenham Festival. His record at the festival reads: 1 1 2 – with his only defeat in that sequence coming in last season’s Arkle Trophy Chase where he finished a head second to the enigmatic Western Warhorse. The form he showed there would leave him with an awful lot to find to trouble the principles here, even allowing for the fact that he had one of the Champion Chase favourites, Dodging Bullets well behind in fourth place. Conversely, his tenacious win in the 2013 Supreme Hurdle strongly suggests that has at least got the speed and class to be competitive in this grade one contest. After all, the two horses he beat that day, and returned to the festival in 2014 to fight out the finish of the Champion Hurdle.

He is clearly a horse with an awful lot of ability even if he has not always proved to be the most reliable proposition in the past. He has certainly been consistent at Cheltenham in March, however, and it would be a surprise if he were not to perform to a high level again this season whichever race he lines up for.

After failing to stay the trip at Kempton in the King George Chase on Boxing Day he was dropped in distance to compete in the Grade Two Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles in the middle of January. He was far from beaten when falling at the last when alongside the current Ryanair Chase favourite . He followed up this disappointing finish with a confidence boosting win at Gowran park one month later.

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The strongest point in his favour here is obviously his previous Cheltenham Festival form, whilst the main cause for concern is probably that he has yet to win at the minimum trip over fences in his three attempts thus far. If I was lucky enough to own him I would head for the Ryanair Chase with him now that both Sire De Grugy and Sprinter Sacre appear likely to make the Champion Chase line-up. This supposition would be supported by the fact he was the equal of the current Ryanair favourite when falling at the last at Thurles in January; moreover, his poor record in two mile chases would further point to the Ryanair Chase being a better choice. Presumably, the decision will be made as late as possible, when all factors are in place to be considered.

SIRE DE GRUGY

This nine-year-old son of My Risk has shortened dramatically in the early markets for this race since his comfortable success in a weakly contested event at Chepstow on 21st February. Although he did not achieve anything memorable in terms of form that day, what he did do was perform to a level that suggests he might be capable of competing close to his best in the Champion Chase. Prior to Chepstow, his participation at the festival was in serious doubt after a particularly poor effort at Newbury in the Grade Two Game Spirit Chase earlier on in the same month.

Gary Moore’s charge is the reigning Champion Chaser and, at least according to the ratings, has the second best chance of winning the 2015 renewal. Sire De Grugy has completed the course in all bar one of his 15 outings over fences and has won 11 of those contests in the process; moreover, the only time he has finished out of the first two when completing the course came when he put in a relatively poor round of jumping at Aintree in April 2013. His final three chase victories of last season were all achieved whilst competing in grade one contests and he managed to win with something to spare on each occasion.

He is versatile regarding the ground and has that all-important Cheltenham Festival win under his belt. He is challenging for favouritism with Sprinter Sacre for the 2015 Champion Chase and has earned his place close to the head of the market. He has often performed well when running as a fresh horse so we can only guess how he will cope when competing at Cheltenham in his third race in just over a month

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MR MOLE

The first thing to say about Mr Mole is that if he is your idea of the winner of the Champion Chase he surely cannot be backed until he has consented to jump the first fence. He is obviously a horse with more than his fair share of quirks as he showed last time out at Newbury in early February when it took all of McCoy’s urgings to persuade him to set off, albeit many lengths behind the rest of the field.

Despite his slow start he ultimately ran out a convincing winner in a race which, it has to be said, completely fell apart. The Game Spirit Chase was ridden to suit McCoy’s mount as Uxizandre, also owned by JP McManus made the running at just a steady gallop which, in turn, allowed Mr Mole to make up the lost ground without expending too much energy. The fact that the three miler Coneygree (in the Aon Chase on the same card) ran quicker than Uxizandre from the first fence of this two miles and one furlong course to the last fence supports the supposition that Mr Mole will, in all probability, face a completely different challenge in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

Mr Mole’s has now won four races in a row and is clearly a progressive horse; his best form, however, has come when he has competed on soft going which does not often prevail at the festival. Personally, I would be a little wary of his ability to stay with a competitively run grade one festival chase on a faster surface than he has been used to lately; furthermore, if he messes about at the start in the Champion Chase he is highly unlikely to make up the lost ground as easily as he was able to do at Newbury recently.

HIDDEN CYCLONE

This son of Stowaway has run well on both occasions he has competed at Cheltenham. He finished a fine third in the 2013 Paddy Power Chase and improved on that effort with an excellent second behind Dynaste in the 2014 Ryanair Chase. He raced prominently in both races and is likely to be ridden even more positively on this step down in trip.

His record in completed chases over the minimum trip reads: 1 2 2 2 1 – which looks better on paper than it perhaps, is in reality. Certainly, the way he was easily brushed

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aside by Sire De Grugy at Ascot in January, 2014 is difficult to forget when considering Hidden Cyclone’s chances of reversing that form with the reigning champion.

At least John Joseph Hanlon’s stable star will be going to the festival on the back of a win in the Grade Two Tied Cottage Chase at Punchestown at the beginning of February. That said, the quality of this performance would still leave him with an awful lot to find to trouble the principles in the Champion Chase. I expect Hidden Cyclone to run well for a long way on the second day of the festival; his chances of success, however, probably depend more on whether or not any of the three favourites are able to perform to their best.

REST OF THE FIELD

Simply Ned has won just three of his ten chases to date with each of those victories coming in handicap chases at Kelso, Doncaster and Ayr. Clearly, this is not the profile of a future Champion Chase winner. His form with Uxizandre and Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham in November, however, does imply that he has every chance of running well and easily outrunning his price.

At the time of writing both Balder Succes and Uxizandre look set to line-up in the Ryanair Chase; whilst will probably run well for a long way if he gets his preferred good ground. Hopefully, both Sizing Europe and Somersby will complete the course and pick up some prize money on what is likely to be their festival finales.

CONCLUSIONS

The Champion Chase appeared to be wide open at the beginning of February with doubts surrounding the participation of both Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy. It was a race that looked ripe for an upset with the ante-post third favourite, Dodging Bullets having such a poor festival record to his name.

How things can change in such a short space of time!

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At the time of writing the 2013 and 2014 champions look to be all geared up for what could turn out to be one of the races of this festival. Of course, their precarious situations could easily change again between now and 11th March; nonetheless, as things stand, if either of the two favourites perform close to their best on the day it will make it very difficult for the rest of the field.

There is obviously a chance that the ‘new improved’ version of Dodging Bullets will take this recent step forward into the festival. After six average displays in March and April, which includes a Cheltenham Festival record that reads 4 9 4, the percentage call is surely to prefer the claims of the other two favourites, as the Nicholls horse will need both of them to run below par even if he does suddenly perform to his best for the first time at the festival.

Despite believing that Champagne Fever would be even more suited to the Ryanair Chase, if he did line up on the Wednesday of the festival I would still view him as the horse most likely to challenge the 2013 and 2014 champions.

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CHAMPION CHASE REVIEW

DODGING BULLETS

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - A fantastic win from this horse albeit in what can only be described as a sub-standard Champion Chase. He may well have put in his first strong performance in the spring time in a long while. That said, it is also possible that he did not perform that much better than when fourth in the Triumph and even when filling the same place in the Arkle. If Champagne Fever had lined up and won by two lengths then everyone would have continued to question Dodging's ability at Cheltenham in March and said that he ran to the same level as in the Arkle where CF finished in front of him. I know there is an awful lot of guesswork within these possible scenarios -however, whatever he is I am fairly confident that he will be rated higher than he should be moving forward. Beating the reluctant Somersby in a close finish will surely need to be improved upon for him to hold onto the two mile crown next season. The Mullins camp must be gutted to have had to withdraw their horse as he is unlikely to get a better chance of winning the race again.

SOMERSBY

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - He once again proved his ability on this better ground in a top race at the festival. He also once again proved his unwillingness to go past the front horse for the umpteenth time as he hung into the winner as he came to make his challenge. He remains a horse to consider for the sfc market whatever the company.

SPECIAL TIARA

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - He handles this good ground very well and, although he has a poor win to run ratio, he can go well again if competing at Sandown in late April, providing he gets his good going. I am fairly confident that he is extremely flattered by his rating of 163.

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SIRE DE GRUGY

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - The good ground was blamed for this effort but the winning time was much quicker last season. His recent race at Chepstow was far more likely to have played a part in the average effort.

SIMPLY NED

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - he would have finished closer but for a thumping mistake at the fourth last. However, he was never in with a chance here and merely ran away from horses that finished tired.

MR MOLE

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - He would probably have preferred much softer ground than he got today. His Newbury performance looks even more ‘interesting’ after this and the Ryanair win of Uxizandre.

SPRINTER SACRE

11th March 2015 - Cheltenham - It is possible he will return to winning form but I would prefer to be against him rather than with him financially as a general rule of thumb. He probably has another race or two to go where we may be able to benefit from him trading shorter than he should due to his past reputation.

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