Pertti Luntinen French Information on the RUSSIAN WAR PLANS 1880-1914

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Pertti Luntinen French Information on the RUSSIAN WAR PLANS 1880-1914 Pertti Luntinen French Information on the RUSSIAN WAR PLANS 1880-1914 Societas Historica Finlandiae Suomen Historiallinen Seura Finska Historiska Samfundet Studia Historica 17 Pertti Luntinen French Information on the RUSSIAN WAR PLANS 1880 1914 SHS • Helsinki • 1984 Cover design by Rauno Enden ISSN 0081-6493 ISBN 951-9254-60-9 Gummerus Oy:n kirjapainossa Jyväskylässä 1984 Contents 1. PREFACE 7 2. THE FRANCO-RUSSIAN ALLIANCE IS BORN 11 2.1. The Diplomatic Background 11 2.2. The Military Convention 14 2.3. The Russian Army by the End of the Eighties 21 2.4. The Russian Ally Evalued in 1892 24 2.5. Troop Mobilization and Concentration in 1890-1897 33 3. DISTRACTIONS 39 3.1. The Near East 1895-1897 39 3.2. New Commanders 47 3.3. Rearmament and Disarmament 49 3.4. A Central Asian Diversion Against England 53 3.5. Russian Strength at the Turn of the Century 59 3.6. The Military and Constitutional Reform in Finland 63 3.7. Kuropatkin's Plans for War in the West 65 3.8. If Francis Joseph Should Die 69 3.9. The Dual Alliance Strengthened 73 3.10. Military Co-Operation Promised 76 4. ADVENTURE AND DEFEAT 82 4.1. Far Eastern Schemes 82 4.2. Russia's Strength Disappears to the Far East 86 4.3. The Defeat of an Ally 90 4.4. Changes in Russian Government and Politics 95 4.5. Powerless Russia 98 4.6. National Minority Problems in the Military Reconstruction 103 5. A SLOW AND DEVIOUS RECONSTRUCTION 107 5.1. Cold Comfort for France 107 5.2. Russia Retreats from the West 116 5.3. The French Are Worried 120 5.4. The Unshaken Intimacy of the Allied General Staffs 123 5.5. Colonel Janin Studies the Russian Army 128 5.6. The Balkan Wars 1912-1913 135 6. NAVAL PLANS 139 6.1. A Naval Convention Discussed 140 6.2. The Calamitous Odyssey 143 6.3. Reorganization 145 6.4. Coastal Defences 150 6.5. Naval Policy 153 6.6. The Naval Convention Signed 156 6.7. Building Programmes 159 7. PREPARING FOR THE GREAT WAR 164 7.1. The Dual Alliance Revitalized 164 7.2. The Problem of Wartime Communication Between the Allies 167 7.3. The Russian Army in 1912 170 7.4. The Problem of the Nationalities Still Unresolved 177 7.5. A Catalogue of Enemies 180 7.6. Planning the Russian Troop Concentration in 1912 184 7.7. Efforts to Improve the Plan 190 7.8. The Grand Programme for Increasing the Russian Army 196 8 CONCLUSION 201 MAPS 207 SOURCES 243 INDEX 247 6 1. Preface The history of Russia's war plans 1880-1914 has been told by A.M. ZaionckovskiI in 1926.' Since then the original plans have remained in the secrecy of the Soviet archives.2 Not even Soviet scholars have been able to publish anything on the war plans, although the military organization and material preparation have been dealt with many times.3 But in the French war archives in the Castle of Vincennes there is a little additional A.M. Zaion&kovskii, Plany voiny. Podgotovka Rossii k imperialistii<eskoi voine. O6erki voennoi podgotovki i pervonaal'nyh planov. Po arhivnym dokumentam. So vstupitel'noi statei M.N. Tuhaievskago. Stab RKKA, uprav- lenie po issledovaniju opyta voin. Moskva 1926. A companion volume on Russia's preparations for naval war: M. Petrov, Podgotovka Rossii k mirovoi voine na more. S predisloviem M. Pavloviea. Stab RKKA, upravlenie po issledovaniju i ispol'zovaniju opyta voin. Mos- kva—Leningrad 1926. 2 The Central Administration of the USSR Archives answered that they had no such material when I requested to see documents concerning the defence of the Baltic coasts during these years. 3 For instance, Istorija pervoi mirovoi voiny 1914-1918 I—II, AN SSSR i Ministerstva Oborona SSSR, Moskva 1975, pp. 195-200/I sketches the outline of Russian plans on the basis of Zaiordkovskil's and Petrov's books. Further essential studies: P.A. ZaionLkovskil, Voennye reformy 1860-1870 godov v Rossii. Moskva 1952. L.G. Beskrovnyl, Russkaja armija i fot v XIX veke. Voenno-ekonomideskaja potencial Rossii. Moskva 1973. P.A. Zalon&ovskil, Samoderzavie i russkaja armija na rubeie XIX—XX sto- letijah, 1881-1903. Moskva 1973. K.F. Sacillo. Rossija pered mirovoi voiny. Vooruzennye sily carizma v 1905- 1914 gg. Akademija Nauk SSSR, nauenopopuljarnaja serija. Moskva 1974. A short introduction is given as a background for his study by Allan K. Wildman, The End of the Russian Imperial Army. The Old Army and the Soldiers' Revolt, March-April 1917. Princeton University Press 1980. 7 information.' The French military attachés succeeded rather well in their task of spying out the plans of the general staff in St. Petersburg, being representatives of the army that was amie et alliee. I have not avoided repeating the main points of the story told by Zaionckovskii, because his book has been out of print for half a century: originally it was written for service use in the Red Army. In addition, it is necessary to place the additional information brought out in this study within a general framework. In the following study the story has been presented from the viewpoint of the military attaché, because it is of interest to see what the French knew of the Russian plans and how they tried to influence them. The reports of the attachés tally rather well with Zaionckovski's text. Consequently, even the additional information recounted here can, if treated with due care, be taken as true. I have avoided retelling the diplomatic, economic or social background story because it has been dealt with in the numerous histories of the imperialist era.' Only a short sketch of the main turning points is given to paint the background for the military aspect of the story. The protocols of the meetings of the chiefs of general staffs have been published in the French collection of diplomatic documents,' as well as some of the politically important reports of the military attaché. I have tried to refer also to the publication in my footnotes when relevant. The development of the war plans is interesting history as 4 Etat-Major de l'armee de terre, Service historique, Chateau de Vincennes. In footnote references: EMATSH + file number Service Historique de la Marine, Chateau de Vincennes. In footnote references: SHM + file number Copies of the politically most important documents as well as the diplomatic reports are kept in Archives, Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres (nowadays: Archives et Documentation, Ministere des relations exterieures), Quai d'Orsay, Paris. In footnote references: AMAE + series and volume number. 5 No bibliography can be attempted within the space of this study. The reader must be referred to the available handbooks and bibliographies. 6 Documents diplomatiques fransais, l.ser. 1871-1900, I—XVI, Paris 1929- 1959. 2. ser. 1901-1911, I—XIV, Paris 1930-1955. 3. ser. 1911-1914, I—XI, Paris 1929-1960. In footnote references: DDF + series and volume number. 8 such. The plans reflect the reality of life, the desperate search for security in a threatening world, and the elusive dreams of domination and grandeur in competition with other armies. This is part of the prehistory of the Great War. The years 1880-1914 are often called the era of imperialism; imperialism in usually dealt with as an economic phenomenon, but it had a military side, too. This story of the military plans throws some additional light on the French influence on Russia's decisions, and on the influence of the Russian generals on the policy of their country. Reports concerning the Russian plans in or near Finland, in the Baltic area, are of special interest for a Finnish writer. I have, however, tried to avoid giving undue weight to this secondary theatre of operations, the problems of which have been dealt with in detail elsewhere.' Only the most salient features are described, with the necessary background information. Russia's war plans were one of the principal factors shaping the fate of all the Western provinces of the swollen empire. A grant by the Academy of Finland and the Centre Nationale de Recherche Scientifique made possible the study in the archives of Chateau de Vincennes and Quai d'Orsay, for which I am deeply grateful. Gratitude is due also to the Akademija Nauk SSSR, which enabled me to study in the Lenin Library in Moscow. The University Libraries in Helsinki and Tampere have been most helpful. Many people have helped me with advice, discussion, or patiently listening to complaints about the impossibility of writing history. Kalevan lukio (The Kaleva Senior High School), my employer, magnanimously consented to grant me a lengthy leave of absence from my teaching duties. Dr. George Maude of the University of Turku has taken great pains to correct my English. Rauno Enden of the Finnish Historical Association has carried out the task of editing the text for publication in the Series of the Association. I should be Tuomo Polvinen, Die finnischen Eisenbahnen in den militärischen und politi- schen Plänen Russlands vor dem ersten Weltkrieg. Helsinki 1962. Pertti Luntinen, Suomi Pietarin suojana ja uhkana venäläisten sotasuunnitel- missa 1854-1914. With an English Summary: Finland, Shield and Threat for St. Petersburg. Historiallinen Arkisto 79, Helsinki 1983. 9 extremely happy if the finished product would in any way be worthy of the trouble so many people have taken to help me in my study. 10 2. The Franco-Russian Alliance Is Born 2.1. The Diplomatic Background The alliance of Russia with France was born out of mutual isolation. Russia had been made to feel her lonelyness in 1878 when her overblown appetites in the Near East had remained unsatiated in the Berlin Congress in spite of her previous victorious campaign.
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