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Jewish Demographic Policies Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora

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Jewish Demographic Policies Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora JEWISH DEMOGRAPHIC POLICIES Population Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora Sergio DellaPergola The Shlomo Argov Professor Emeritus of Israel-Diaspora Relations The Hebrew University of Jerusalem With a Foreword by Stuart E. Eizenstat JPPI Editors Barry Geltman, Rami Tal Copyright © The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) (Established by the Jewish Agency for Israel, Ltd.) Jerusalem 2011/5771 JPPI, Givat Ram Campus, P.O.B 39156, Jerusalem 91391, Israel Telephone: 972-2-5633356 | Fax: 972-2-5635040 | www.jppi.org.il All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be translated, reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without express written permission from the publisher. Printed and Distributed by the Jewish People Policy Institute Graphic Design: Lotte Design Cover Design: Shlomit Wolf, Lotte Design ISBN 978-965-7549-00-1 Table of Contents FOREWORD by Amb. Stuart E. Eizenstat . 7 ABSTRACT . 11 PREFACE. 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: MAIN JEWISH POPULATION TRENDS AND POLICY OPTIONS . 17 a. Primary Agenda. 17 b. Main Jewish Population Patterns and Implications . 21 c. Main Policy Options and Directions . 42 d. About this Report . 48 PART ONE: GENERAL AND CONCEPTUAL ASPECTS. 51 1. Demography and Policy Planning . 51 A. Overview. 51 B. Fundamentals of Jewish demography . 55 C. Main processes affecting population size and composition. 68 D. General population policy challenges . 73 E. Jewish population policy challenges . 86 F. For what purposes and clients . 96 2. Drivers and Consequences of Jewish Population Dynamics . 99 A. Who are the Jews?: definitional predicaments . 99 B. Demographic trends of Diaspora Jewry . 104 C. Demographic trends of Jews in Israel. 110 D. Current debates: agreements and disagreements . 113 E. Demographic implications of Jewish demographic trends. 119 F. Non-demographic implications of Jewish demographic trends. 122 G. Some lessons from history . 128 PART TWO: DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES anD POlicy OptiOns . .131 3. Migration (Aliyah) and Absorption in Israel. .131 A. Main processes . 131 B. Intervening mechanisms . 142 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 145 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 149 4. Migration from Israel. .151 A. Main processes . 151 B. Intervening mechanisms . 155 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 155 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 157 5. Marriage, Family and Fertility . .159 A. Main processes . 159 B. Intervening mechanisms . 170 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 173 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 177 6. Jewish Identity. .179 A. Main processes . 179 B. Intervening mechanisms . 191 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 194 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 196 7. Assimilation and Secession from Judaism . .199 A. Main processes . 199 B. Intervening mechanisms . 204 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 205 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 206 8. Accession to Judaism (Giyur). .207 A. Main processes . 207 B. Intervening mechanisms . 213 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 214 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 216 9. Health, Mortality and Survivorship . .217 A. Main processes . 217 B. Intervening mechanisms . 224 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 224 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 226 10. Territory and Boundaries . .227 A. Main processes . 227 B. Intervening mechanisms . 245 C. Main policy options and directions: Israel . 246 D. Main policy options and directions: Diaspora . 248 PART THREE: POLICY DIRECTIONS. .249 11. Suggested Demographic Policy Directions . .249 A. Policy goals and targets. 249 B. Alternative approaches to Jewish population policies . 261 C. Past policy experiences . 265 D. Evaluation of main demographic policy options and directions: Israel . 274 E. Evaluation of main demographic policy options and directions: Diaspora. 281 F. Institutional frameworks for Jewish population policies . 284 12. What Next? . .289 REFERENCES . .293 APPENDICES . .307 A. Israel Government Resolution, April 4, 1967 . .308 428. Demographic Policy . 308 B. Israel Government Resolution, May 11, 1986 . .310 Demographic Trends of the Jewish People . 310 C. The Israel Public Council on Demography Document, 2003. .311 The Government of Israel and Demographic Policy . 311 Background. 311 Israel . 312 Selected Issues – Demographic Policy in Israel . 313 Summary and Conclusions . 316 D. Institute of Jewish Affairs; American Jewish Committee; European Council of Jewish Community Services; American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee . .317 Planning for the Future of European Jewry, An International Policy Research Conference, Prague, July 3-5, 1995. 317 About The Author. .324 Foreword by Stuart E. Eizenstat Sergio DellaPergola has been for decades a most prominent, prescient, and respected demographer of the Jewish people. He has never seen demographic data as dry statistics, but rather as a platform to focus our attention on the implications of population trends for the future strength and security of the Jewish people. But in this new book for The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI), “Jewish Population Policies: Demographic Trends and Options in Israel and in the Diaspora” he has written a defining work for his career, which combines key demographic trends in Israel and the Diaspora, with penetrating policy options that Jewish leaders must consider to meet the profound challenges they pose. Even more so, he forces us to consider demography and population trends not as ancillary factors, but as central to the future of the Jewish people, shaping the historic transformations of our time. With a great sense of urgency he notes that, “A responsible Jewish leadership cannot avoid coming to terms with the reality that serving the Jewish People, among other things, involves fully understanding and addressing its demographic trends.” The demographic figures Professor DellaPergola presents are sobering. While other demographers take different approaches, despite discrepancies of counting between them, both the underlying trends and the policy recommendations to cope with them are the same. There are only 13.5 million Jews in a world of over 6 billion people- -5.7 million in Israel and 7.7 million in the Diaspora. In 1945, even after the Holocaust, there were 5 Jews per 1000 people in the world; in 2010 there were less than 2 per 1000, and inexorably declining every year. The demographic challenges are distinctly different for Israel and theD iaspora. Most Jews in the Diaspora may be unaware that Israel has now overtaken the United States, as the country with the largest Jewish population. In 1970, Israel had a smaller Jewish population than the U.S. or the rest of the Diaspora outside the U.S. By 2005, it had the largest population among the three. And by the year 2030, Israel will have a majority of the world’s Jewish population. thE JEWish PEOPLE POlicy institutE 7 As DellaPergola indicates, the main demographic challenge for Israel is to “preserve a clear and undisputed majority among the State’s total population”, as a “critical prerequisite to Israel’s future existence as a Jewish and democratic state”. I agree. Although the birth rates for Israeli’s Jewish population are far higher than for Diaspora Jews, at 2.9 children per family, on average, the growth of the Muslim population, both within Israel and in the territories is considerably higher. DellaPergola notes that the growth rates of Palestinian Arabs within Israel and in the West Bank at 3.7 children per couple and Gaza (even higher) are nearly double those of the Israeli Jewish population. This means that by 2020, the population of Jews out of the total population of Israel plus the West Bank, without counting Gaza, would decline to 56%. Israel cannot make peace with the Palestinians, without a willing Palestinian partner, and the current refusal of the leadership of the Palestinian Authority to enter into negotiations until there is a total settlement freeze, including Jerusalem, is unrealistic. But the Israeli government needs to prepare their public for the fact that Israel cannot remain a majority Jewish, democratic state, by indefinitely controlling the Palestinian territories. For the Jewish Diaspora, in the United States, Europe, and around the world, the demographic realities are even more foreboding. The combination of out-marriage without conversions, now over 40% in Western Europe, above 50% in the U.S., and higher than 75% in the Former Soviet Union, together with fertility rates below the average number of children (2.1) necessary to simply stay even in populations, produces an unhealthy result. If current trends continue to 2020, there would be a decrease of 600,000 Jews from the current Diaspora population of 7.7 million. The core Jewish population in the U.S. according to DellaPergola, is 5.2 to 5.3 million, but even this overstates the reality, since only about 4.3 to 4.4 million are prepared to define themselves as Jews by religion. I believe that rabbis and secular Jewish leaders are aware of these population trends, but have not developed, as DellaPergola and JPPI recommend, a comprehensive approach to both assess the impact of these demographic realities, and to try to change their course. For example, taking an expansive definition, some 8.3 million Americans have some significant connection to Judaism, living in mixed Jewish households or of Jewish heritage, even if they do not define themselves now as Jewish, and more than 10 million people would be eligible as Jews under Israel’s Law of Return. In addition to strengthening the “core” Jewish population of 5.2 to 5.3 million (of which 3 million 8 thE JEWish PEOPLE POlicy institutE belong to some Jewish organization), outreach programs to bring those outside the core into the Jewish community is an imperative..
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