By NADER FERGANY THE ’S EXPERIENCE ,grat,on across the different parts of the Arab world is a” old phenomenon. As early as the period when Islam was spreading, an exten- we human movement swept the Middle East, greatly enhancing the unity of the Arab nat~on through the intermixture of people sharing a common language and creed. This free movement was eventually re- stricted by the fragmentation of the Arab states under colonial rule at the end of the last century. In the ZOlh century, technical aId began to be sent from the advanced to the less advanced states, especially in the fields of health and . These tech- nlcal missions eventually formed the basis of the public service in the Gulf States. With the expansion of the 011industry in some Arab states in the 1950s. demand for labour grew faster than local supply. Con- sequently, the oil industry was inltlated by foreign expertise, with the managerial and technical positrons being filled by Europeans and Americans. In some cases. foreign com- pan~es deliberately sought foreign labour. The rise in oil prices created a great leap in revenues for the oll&producing Arab states, especially Algeria, the Emirates. Iraq, , size of the migrant labour force, Its charac~ to assess the swation with precision, espe- Libya. Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. The figures ieristics, and its social impact because of the cially in the absence of accurate data and/or rose from US$E billion in 1972 to 557 billion unavailability of data. It is. however, possi~ scientific research. In addition, some Arab in 1975, and to $205 billion I” 1980. During ble to present a general picture of its size. 011states. especially small ones. have ex- the same period, other Arab states and most development, and distribution. perienced an Influx of non-Arab labour. Third World countries were experiencing se- In the early 1970% the number of migrant whose Impact IS seen as negative. vere economic problems and becoming I”~ labourers did not exceed 750 000. The debted to the lndustrlalired countries. figure doubled in 1975 and by 1980 lt prob- In the second half of the 1970s. the con- FOREIGN EXCHANGE SHORTAGES ably exceeded six million. However, It IS cur- ALLEVIATED tinued expansion of Arab wealth required the rently less than five million. establishment of a huge institutional struc- It IS also estimated that the proportion of ture and the importation of a labour force of non-Arab labour, mostly Asian. has grown. For the exporting country, a major benefit diverse skills and standards. An economic from one-quarter of the migrant labour force IS the large Inflow of 011 remittances by surplus, a shortage of indigenous workers, in the mid-70s to one-third r the early 1980s. migrants and their families. This is reflected and a strong demand for labour all com- positively at the individual economic level bined to raise wages tremendously, espe- and I” the reduction of natlonal foreign ex- wily when compared with those in other change shortages. Remiitances reached un- Arab states, Third World countries. and even FAMILIES ACCOMPANY WORKERS precedented values in the late 1970s but the industrial countries which were undergo- started to fall in the early 1980s. ing an economic recession. Consequently, But the magnitude of labour migration On the other hand, thenegatIve effects on a labour force willing to move to the oil count does not adequately describe the phenome- the individual migrant include: an emphasis tries grew quickly I” the rest of the world, in non in either the exporting or importing so- on consumption; undergoing hardships to spite of the dhficult living conditions in Arab cl&es. Migrants’ families may accompany get the chance to migrate; and alienation oil countries. them to the host country, and of course this and discrimination in the host country. On has a major impact on both the exporting the broader level of society, there is the short- and Importing countries. In general, then, the age of skilled labour I” the exporting coun- number of migrants to the host country try, its impact on wages. and the increased tMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS exceeds the actual number of imported importation of goods for consumption, workers. The effects of this migration on the through the expenditure of remittances. The Arab countries can be divided into exporting countries extend beyond the two groups with respect to labour migration. families of the migrants to various segments One IS the recipient of a large imported of society. through such phenomena as ‘TRAP OF REMITTANCES’ labour force (in order of quantity of imported shortages in skIlled labour and rising prices. labour): Saudi Arabia, Iraq. Libya. The For these reasons many researchers con- Some researchers have warned against Emirates, Kuwait. Oman, Jordan, Bahrain, sider labour migration I” the Arab oil states the “trap of remittances”, since this money and Qatar. The other group includes those as one of the most important socioeconom~ has not ended up developing the produc- states exporting a sireable proportion of their ic phenomena experienced by the Arab tive capacity of the exporting country as labour force (in order of quantity of exported world in recent years--one that has Intel much as it has increased inflation. labour): , Yemen, Jordan, Palestine, grated Arab states to a” extent ““prece- Consequently, it can be argued that labour Democratic Yemen, Sudan, Tunisia, Syria, dented in recent history. migration has had a negative Impact on and Lebanon. Jordan falls into both The impact of labour migration IS both some of the exporting states-a condition categories. positive and negative. The effects are so I”- aggravated by the paucity of related policies. It is lmpossibie to estimate accurately the t&wined. however, that It becomes difficult Some countries have even been so short- 6 !DRCnep0lI.s October 1986 sahted as to concentrate on the remittances. and productlvitv are low. The problem is aa~ n&tlng all other factors. Such countries gravated by the diversity of cultural back- have later had to face economic wses when grounds and nationalities of the Immigrants the wave of migration started to subslde. and by the predominance of males among along with the remittances. I” the mid-80s. migrant workers. The third characteristic is The impact of labour migration on the im- the problem of training indigenous workers. porting countries depends on the degree of The ease with which labour can be import- reliance on imported labour. In Qatar and the ed, coupled with the p&y of welfare states Emirates, expatriate labour constitutes the of providing ample opporiunity for high-profit majority of the labourforce. In Bahrain, Iraq, economic activities to natives, has greatly and Saudi Arabia, It accounts for one third. impeded the development of indigenous The importing countries also differ wth work forces to replace imported labour. regard to the proportion of Arab labourers in the total labor force. Whereas in Iraq. Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, and Saudi Arabia, Arabs dominate the labour force, I” Qatar, DECLINING LABOUR MIGRATION Bahrain, the Emirates, and Oman, non- Arabs dominate. The collapse of the world oil market has Iraq is unique among the Arab &tes I” brought an end to the large oil revenues and not enforcing any immigration, work, reset luxurious consumptive patterns enjoyed by dence, or ownership restrIctions on im- the Arab oil states I” the past 10 years. mlgratlng Arabs. For these reasons. it has Perhaps this situation is temporary. No one drawn many Arab migrants, mostly from knows what the world 011market holds in Egypt. The relatively large size of the in- stole for the coming months. But the grow- digenous labour force and the equality of ing ecc~nom~c crises in many oil-exporting other Arabs with Iraqis before the law have states, aggravated by military and political helped to prevent many of the negative con- conflicts, have lowered the standards for sequences of labour migration. imported labour. its wages, and qualifica- In Jordan, labour immigration has pari~al- tions. This trend is expected to continue, and When That workers first started ly replaced labour emigration to other 011 even increase I” wXensity. Labour migration migrating to the Middle East, many countries. peaked during the second half of the 1970s. were reluctant to go. They had to be but has gradually slowed down since the enticed by compa”,es which arranged early 1980s. It will eventually lead to a rela- and paid for everything including one- ECONOMIC PROGRESS tive decline in the magnitude of labour migra- month vacations and 5000 Baht tion to the Arab oil states, paralleled with a (US $200) bonuses. The h!gh wages The socioeconomic changes in the Arab fall I” oil revenues. the workers earned meant “instant oil countries have resulted in clearly nottce- If this prediction turns out to be true, the economic transformation” for their able rapid economic progress. All aspects recipient countries will have to cope with families. Two-storey concrete houses, of life have been greatly modernized (infra- difficult economic conditions not previously panted bright orange or green, and structure, services. consumes goods) to the experienced. This could be the right moment point that they approach the standards of the for these states to rechannel their economic industrial Western societies. Such progress actlvitles and patterns of consumption. and could not have been achieved wlthout ex- recruit indigenous, trained personnel with the patriate labour. objective of maximizing national self-reliance The labour-importing countries share three and achieving a better future for their characteristics. First, their reliance on expatrw cltlzens. ate labour IS exienswe. Secondly. the socio- The future of labour-exporting countries economic conditions regulating the appears somewhat dimmer. They have relationships between the natives and the em- become used to a steady source of income migrants end up dividing the society into in the form of oil remetancesfrom the labour segments that are unable to interact in a migrants. Although this revenue has helped healthy way. Consequently, social cohesion meet the needs of migrants and their families, it has often been used to finance imports mainly for consumption rather than to develop productivity. Now exporting countries are faced with the problems of returning labour workers and falling remittances at a time when foreign debts are accumulating and the CII- sis of development remains unsolved. There seems to be no solution for these societies except to turn inwards in an effort to alter existing pattems of consumption and enhance local productivity via policies and measures based on sax justice and equal distribution. Otherwise. many of the labour- exporting countries will undoubtedly under- go a period of severe social upheaval. 0

Dr Nader Fergany has taught at Cam Universrty and is now with the NaDonal Populafron Council of kwpf