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Imperial College London a Study of the Challenges and Opportunities To Imperial College London Faculty of Natural science Centre for Environmental Policy A study of the challenges and opportunities to adopting renewable energy in Oman By Aaisha Al-Sarihi Supervisor: Dr Judith A. Cherni A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and Diploma of the Imperial College (DIC), in the Centre for Environmental Policy 2018 1 Declaration of Own work I, Aisha Al-Sarihi, declare that this thesis A study of the challenges and opportunities to adopting renewable energy in Oman is entirely my own work and that where any material could be constructed as the work of others, it is fully cited and referenced and/or with appropriate acknowledgement given. Signature: Name of student: Aaisha Al-Sarihi Name of supervisor: Dr Judith A. Cherni 2 Copyright Declaration ‘The copyright of this thesis rests with the author and is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives licence. Researchers are free to copy, distribute or transmit the thesis on the condition that they attribute it, that they do not use it for commercial purposes and that they do not alter, transform or build upon it. For any reuse or redistribution, researchers must make clear to others the licence terms of this work’ 3 Acknowledgements First and foremost, thanks to almighty Allah for giving me wisdom, strength, good health, perseverance and patience to complete the PhD. Thanks to Dr Judith A. Cherni for supervising this PhD. The structure of this thesis would not be the same without her continuous feedback and comments. Thanks for all the intellectual criticism, guidance and support in times of PhD blues. The Omani Ministry of Higher Education is acknowledged for the fully funded scholarship to undertake this PhD research. Acknowledgement and gratitude are due to all the interviewees who spared time in their busy schedule to take part in the research interviews. I owe gratitude for my PhD fellows at the Centre for Environmental Policy. Thanks to Hafiz Bello and Rambrandt Koppelaar for their intellectual support and for being willing to discuss my work on different occasions. Thanks are due to Nick Hughes for sparing the time to discuss the first paper I drafted out of my PhD thesis. Susanne Raum, Lee Pearson and Geraldine Brennan, my senior PhD fellows, thanks for the positive and motivational words. A loving-thank you to my parents, and siblings. Special thanks go to Omar. The interviews would not be possible without your help during the fieldwork. Thanks Ahmed for always believing in me. Ahoud, thanks for sparing me the time in your busy schedule to either hosting or visiting me. Last but not the least, I would like to thank the team, at the Middle East Centre of the London School of Economics and Political Science, who hosted me to research the Challenge of Climate Change Policy in the GCC. Thank you so much for being very supportive during the final months of writing-up my PhD thesis. 4 Abstract Despite its hydrocarbon-wealth, holding nearly 30% of proven world crude oil and around a fifth of global natural gas resources, the members of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – are faced by unprecedented challenges including vulnerability to oil price shocks, energy security, and high per capita carbon emissions. Whereas new energy technologies such as solar and wind could represent an opportunity for the region to tackle such challenges, there remain numerous difficulties and barriers that have impeded such development. Nonetheless, there have been few initiatives to develop renewable energy (RE) particularly in Oman. Yet, investors, researchers and government have paid insufficient attention to the investigation and development of RE sources that could be fit for the needs of this country. The current study assesses the degree of success of those few initiatives, and explores the extent to which social, political and economic factors have contributed to such delay in adopting RE. A closer look at the various levels of interaction between RE initiatives and their surrounding environment has been achieved through the analysis of primary and secondary, quantitative and qualitative data and semi-structured interviews. These data have been discussed and interpreted using strategic niche management, multi- level perspective and rentier state theory approaches. Rentier state theory proved particularly useful to uncover interactions between RE initiatives and their political and economic contexts. An exhaustive analysis of the drivers, barriers and policy related to the uptake of RE in Oman has moreover been obtained by applying grounded theory to the data gathered through semi-structured interviews. Oman’s political trajectory has been dominated by high hydrocarbons subsidies, a fragmented energy policy, absence of RE regulatory framework, informal institutions and excessively centralised top-down decision-making system with vested interest in hydrocarbons persisted in power. The current study points at the importance of employing multiple approaches to understand previous and current economic and policy trends as well as inform future policy formation and action. Integration of those various levels of analysis shed new light on the technical, social, political and economic factors that influence the uptake of RE in Oman. 5 Table of Contents Declaration of Own work ......................................................................................... 2 Copyright Declaration ............................................................................................... 3 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................. 4 Abstract .................................................................................................................... 5 Table of Contents ..................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures ............................................................................................................ 9 List of Tables ........................................................................................................... 11 Abbreviations ......................................................................................................... 12 CHAPTER 1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 14 1.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 14 1.2 Motivation ................................................................................................................ 14 1.3 Aim and objectives ................................................................................................... 19 1.4 Thesis contents ......................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2 Understanding the adoption of renewable energy technologies (RETs) ................................................................................................................................ 23 2.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 23 2.2 Linear approaches to new technology adoption ....................................................... 25 2.2.1 A focus on technological improvement ............................................................... 26 2.2.2 Interaction between technology and society ...................................................... 30 2.2.3 Socio-technical transitions .................................................................................. 32 2.3 System thinking to approach RETs ............................................................................ 35 2.3.1 Transition management approach (TM) .............................................................. 36 2.3.2 Strategic niche management approach (SNM) .................................................... 39 2.4 System innovation frameworks to address interactions: technology, society and policy .............................................................................................................................. 48 2.4.1 Technological innovation system approach (TIS) ................................................. 49 2.4.2 Advantages and limitations of TIS ....................................................................... 55 2.4.3 Systemic multi-level perspective approach (MLP) ............................................... 57 2.4.4 Dimensions of the MLP approach: niche, regime and landscape ......................... 59 2.4.5 Advantages and limitations of the MLP framework ............................................. 64 2.4.6 Rentier state theory to address the political economy gap.................................. 67 2.4.7 Rentier strategies and actors .............................................................................. 68 2.5 Thesis approach ........................................................................................................ 70 2.5.1 Socio-techno-economic-political framework (STEP) to analyse RETs adoption in hydrocarbon-rich states .............................................................................................. 71 2.5.2 The need for country-specific data ..................................................................... 76 2.6 Conclusions ..............................................................................................................
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