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Integrating Air Quality and Climate Change Strategies in Oman

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Integrating Air Quality and Climate Change Strategies in Oman Integrating air quality and climate change strategies in Oman Jehad Jabr Nasser Albusaidi Doctor of Philosophy University of York Environment September 2019 This thesis is dedicated to my lovely family: my husband Khalid and my children, Tasneem, Elaf, Alwaleed, and Ahmed, for the beauty they bring to my life. For my Oman and its prosperous future. 2 Abstract: Air pollution and climate change are two of the main environmental problems being faced at the moment across the globe and both have a major and costly impact on human health. Oman needs to avoid the negative scenario which could result, and this can best be done by the integration of air quality control and climate change mitigation strategies. This integration would improve air quality and meet climate goals and would be cost-effective as well as beneficial. This thesis investigates the potential for integrated climate and air quality strategies in Oman, and incorporates the mitigation of SLCPs, a group of pollutants that has not yet been considered in the country. The implications of the mitigation strategies on human health and the climate are analysed and the current air quality and climate change policies are examined. The thesis also develops the first emission inventory to be based on national data for the country, using the data for 2010; it presents Oman’s emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, non-methane volatile organic compounds, ammonia, particulate matter, black carbon and organic carbon. The emission inventory estimated total emissions of CO2 of 50 Mt, CH4 of 565 kt, SO2 of 160 kt, NMVOCs of 142 kt, NOx of 137 kt, primary PM2.5 of 61 kt, CO of 51 kt, NH3 of 18 kt, BC of 4 kt, and OC of 0.9 kt. The main sources of pollution in 2010 were emissions from electricity generation, oil and gas extraction, road transport and the manufacturing industry. Twelve emission scenarios are developed and analysed in this thesis: the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario and eleven mitigation scenarios. The mitigation scenarios are as follows: the renewable energy scenario and the zero coal scenario, both for the electricity generation sector the fugitive reduction scenario and the zero flaring scenario, both for the oil and gas sector the efficient industry scenario and the clean fuel scenario in the manufacturing industry the electric vehicle scenario, public transport scenario and paved road scenario for the road transport sector the efficient air conditioning scenario for the residential sector and the efficient air conditioning scenario for commercial and public services. If all the measures covered in all these scenarios were implemented, this thesis estimates that 191 Mt of CO2 would be avoided in 2050, as well as 840 kt of CH4, 144 kt of a SO2, 92 kt of NMVOCs, 211 kt of NOx, 34 kt of primary PM2.5 emissions, 81 kt of CO, 3 kt of NH3, 3 t of BC, and 3 t of OC. This thesis has estimated that in 2010, approximately 711 cases of premature death in Oman could be attributed to PM2.5; this figure would rise to 1810 cases in 2030, and to more than 3 4400 cases in 2050, according to the BAU scenario. Soil dust is the largest source of PM2.5 in all years, but the other main sources contributing to it are transport (81%), industrial process emissions (10%), and the oil and gas industry (5%). This thesis confirms the urgent need to develop an integrated air quality and climate change policy. This thesis also assesses the current legal framework that could be used to reduce emissions in Oman. Current policy was examined to understand the level of effort being made to reduce air pollution, SLCPs and GHGs. Despite public concern in Oman over these issues, especially climate change, little action has so far been taken to reduce emissions. Semi-structured interviews were held with representatives of government, industry, NGOs, media and the judiciary. From the interviews it was clear that the level of interest among the different sectors of the Omani establishment does not reflect – and is indeed much lower than - the level of concern felt by the public about these issues. This is shown by the lack of ambitious targets in Oman’s NDC and by the low level of attention paid to air pollution. This thesis shows that unless action is taken, the impact of air pollution will get worse, not only because of increasing pollution but also because of an aging and growing population. The measures in the different scenarios developed could lead to a 60% reduction in CO2 and a 33% reduction in methane, and also greatly reduce the negative impact on health. The analysis has also shown that this could lead to a net reduction of 7 % in warming by 2050, and offset the released warming from reducing SO2 and NOx emissions to protect human health. For this to happen, the current legislative framework could be used, but a positive outcome will depend on two key factors. First, all stakeholders need to become far more aware of the issues involved, as at present these are not widely understood; and second, there is need for further policy development and legislation and also for investment in capacity and infrastructure. 4 Table of Contents Abstract: ............................................................................................................................. 3 List of Tables: .................................................................................................................... 11 List of Figures: ................................................................................................................... 15 Acronyms: ......................................................................................................................... 22 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................... 24 Author's declaration .......................................................................................................... 25 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 26 1.1 Overview .............................................................................................................. 26 1.2 Air pollution: ......................................................................................................... 28 1.2.1 Global health impacts ......................................................................................................... 29 1.2.1 Air pollution and health in Oman and the GCC region ....................................................... 30 1.2.1.1 Outdoor air Pollution - Ambient particulate matter (PM) ........................................ 33 1.2.1.2 Indoor Air Pollution ................................................................................................... 39 1.2.1.3 Ozone ........................................................................................................................ 42 1.2.2 Main sources of air pollution in the region ........................................................................ 44 1.3 Climate change: .................................................................................................... 45 1.3.1 GHG emissions inventory in Oman and the GCC region: ................................................... 46 1.3.2 Weather extremes .............................................................................................................. 50 1.3.3 Heatwaves .......................................................................................................................... 54 1.3.4 Global warming: ................................................................................................................. 56 1.4 Short Lived Climate Pollutants: .............................................................................. 58 1.5 Integration of air quality and climate policy: .......................................................... 63 1.6 Research gap:........................................................................................................ 64 1.7 Motivation: ........................................................................................................... 66 1.8 Approach: ............................................................................................................. 67 References ........................................................................................................................ 69 2 Estimating current and historic emissions in Oman ..................................................... 83 2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 83 2.2 Emission Inventory ................................................................................................ 83 2.3 Methodology for estimating emissions in Oman: ................................................... 84 2.3.1 Estimating emissions using LEAP-IBC: ................................................................................ 84 2.3.2 LEAP-IBC Structure: ............................................................................................................ 85 2.3.2.1 Analysis and Results Modes: ..................................................................................... 86 2.3.2.2 Key Assumptions: ...................................................................................................... 86 2.3.2.3 Demand....................................................................................................................
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