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Mcnabb Phd 2013.Pdf ON THE FRONTAL ABLATION OF ALASKA TIDEWATER GLACIERS By Robert Whitfield McNabb RECOMMENDED: Dr. Edward Bueler Dr. Roman Motyka Dr. Erin Pettit Dr. Martin Truffer Dr. Regine Hock Advisory Committee Chair Dr. Sarah Fowell Chair, Department of Geology and Geophysics APPROVED: Dr. Paul Layer Dean, College of Natural Science and Mathematics Dr. John Eichelberger Dean of the Graduate School Date ON THE FRONTAL ABLATION OF ALASKA TIDEWATER GLACIERS A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of the University of Alaska Fairbanks in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY By Robert Whitfield McNabb, B.A. Fairbanks, Alaska August 2013 v Abstract Sea level rise is a major problem that society will face in the coming century. One of the largest unknown components of sea level rise is frontal ablation (the sum of mass loss through calving and subaqueous melting) from glaciers and ice sheets. Using estimates of ice thickness, rates of glacier length change, and glacier velocities, we present a record of frontal ablation over the period 1985-2012 for 20 Alaska tidewater glaciers. We also present a new method for estimating ice thickness by solving the continuity equation be- tween adjacent flowlines. Because of the wealth of data available, we apply this method to Columbia Glacier, Alaska. The mean ice thickness and volume of Columbia Glacier were approximately halved over the period 1957-2007, from 281 m to 143 m, and from 294 km3 to 134 km3, respectively. Using bedrock slope and considering how waves of thickness change propagate through the glacier, we conclude that the rapid portion of this tidewater glacier’s retreat is likely nearing an end. We present a 64 year record of length change for 50 Alaska tidewater glaciers, over the period 1948-2012. Most (31) glaciers retreated over the period. Examination of the onset of glacier retreats indicates a correlation between high summer sea surface temperature and the triggering of retreat. Finally, we present a 27 year record of surface velocity for 20 Alaska tidewater glaciers derived from Landsat imagery. Surface velocities vary by as much as 80% throughout the year, indicating that using mea- surements from one time of year may bias estimates of frontal ablation. The total mean rate of frontal ablation for these 20 glaciers over the period 1985-2012 is 16:2 ± 6:5 Gt a−1. Extending this to the remaining 30 Alaska tidewater glaciers yields an estimate of frontal ablation of 18:3±7:3 Gt a−1, approximately 50% of the climatic mass balance of the region. This indicates the important, non-negligible role frontal ablation can play in regional mass balance, even where tidewater glaciers cover a small fraction of the total area. vi Table of Contents Page Signature Page . i Title Page . iii Abstract . v List of Figures . ix List of Tables . xi Acknowledgements . xiii Chapter 1 Introduction . 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Objectives . 3 1.3 References . 5 Chapter 2 Using Surface Velocities to Calculate Ice Thickness and Bed Topogra- phy: A Case Study at Columbia Glacier, Alaska . 11 2.1 Abstract . 11 2.2 Introduction . 11 2.3 Columbia Glacier . 13 2.4 Datasets . 14 2.4.1 Map Data and Digital Elevation Models . 14 2.4.2 Fjord Bathymetry and Glacier Bed Elevation . 16 2.4.3 Ice Thickness . 16 2.4.4 Surface Mass Balance . 17 2.4.5 Surface Velocities . 18 2.5 Method . 18 2.6 Application to Columbia Glacier . 21 2.7 Results . 23 2.7.1 Sensitivity Analysis . 25 2.7.2 Uncertainty and Error Analysis . 27 2.7.3 Ice Thickness and Bed Topography . 28 2.7.4 Volume Change . 31 2.8 Discussion . 33 2.9 Conclusions . 38 2.10 Acknowledgements . 39 vii Page 2.11 References . 40 Chapter 3 Alaska Tidewater Glacier Terminus Positions, 1948-2012 . 47 3.1 Abstract . 47 3.2 Introduction . 47 3.3 Study Area . 49 3.4 Data . 52 3.4.1 Topographic Maps . 52 3.4.2 Landsat Scenes . 52 3.5 Methods . 53 3.5.1 Digitization of Glacier Termini . 53 3.5.2 Glacier Length . 53 3.5.3 Seasonal Front Variations . 54 3.6 Results . 55 3.6.1 Interannual Length Changes . 55 3.6.2 Significance of Interannual Length Changes . 58 3.6.3 Seasonal Length Changes . 61 3.7 Discussion . 63 3.7.1 Tidewater Glacier Cycle . 63 3.7.2 Step Change Retreats . 64 3.7.3 Seasonal Length Changes . 67 3.7.4 Regional Behavior . 68 3.7.5 Patterns of Significant Length Changes . 70 3.8 Conclusions . 70 3.9 References . 72 Chapter 4 Alaska Tidewater Glacier Velocities and Frontal Ablation, 1985-2012 . 77 4.1 Abstract . 77 4.2 Introduction . 77 4.3 Study Area . 80 4.4 Data . 82 4.4.1 Landsat Imagery . 82 4.4.2 Ice Thicknesses . 83 4.5 Methods . 84 viii Page 4.5.1 Surface Velocities . 84 4.5.2 Frontal Ablation . 86 4.5.3 Surface Mass Balance . 87 4.6 Results . 87 4.6.1 Surface Velocities . 87 4.6.2 Frontal Ablation . 90 4.6.3 Uncertainty Analysis . 91 4.6.4 Scaling to Entire Region . 93 4.7 Discussion . 95 4.7.1 Surface Velocities . 95 4.7.2 Frontal Ablation . 97 4.7.3 Total Mass Loss . 99 4.8 Conclusion . 100 4.9 References . 102 Chapter 5 Conclusions . 109 ix List of Figures Page 2.1 Columbia Glacier, showing 1957 glacier extent in gray . 13 2.2 Schematic illustration of glacier surface . 19 2.3 Calculated bed topography map for Columbia Glacier, 1957 extent . 23 2.4 Results of analysis of calculated ice thickness sensitivity . 25 2.5 Calculated ice thickness map . 29 2.6 Comparison of calculated thickness (dash-dot) to measured thickness (solid line) . 30 2.7 Comparison of calculated and measured ice thickness for all radar points . 30 2.8 (a) Calculated centerline bed topography and surface elevation in 1957 and 2007 . 32 2.9 (a) Percent of total volume change 1957-2007 . 32 3.1 Location of the 50 studied tidewater glaciers and six . 49 3.2 Example of the “Box method" for calculating . 54 3.3 Time series of relative lengths for each glacier in the study area . 56 3.4 Decadal mean (solid) and median (dashed) rates of.
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