2012 Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Summer Course University of the Philippines Diliman Quezon City, Philippines Presentation Overview
Course Description and Weather
Malabon City- Effectiveness of the CAMANAVA Flood Control Project
Manila Bay- Slowing Land Subsidence: A Strategic Plan to Reduce Groundwater Use
Bacolor- Disaster Management on (Extremely) Limited Resources
Marikina- Social Networks in Disaster Response
August 2012 Monsoon Rains Malabon City, Metro Manila, Philippines CAMANAVA Project Overview
“Local Venice” of the Philippines 40 percent of Malabon is infill Elevation 0-3 m msl 7 major flood events since 2009
Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) manage and fund CAMANAVA Flood Control Project
Objective: Reduce flood prone areas within CAMANAVA by 75 percent
Series of pumping stations, flood gates, river walls and earthen dike
Planned Costs: 86 million Actual Costs: > $120 million USD
Scheduled Completion Date: 2007
2 1
Source: Malabon City Engineer’s Office
Under-Designed
Hydrological study examined historical hydrometeorological data including rainfall, flood runoff and tides as well as land use and used the data to develop flood discharge values specific to CAMANAVA flood control structures design. Tidal Data- average recorded data between 1981 to 1999 Rainfall Data- 20 major storms recorded between 1963 to 1990 Land Use- Projections to 2020
From hyetograph modeling of the Malabon-Tullahan River drainage area, a 30-year return period is defined as a rainfall event with 19.25 inches of rainfall in a 48-hour period.
Exceedances- Typhoon Ondoy (2009), Typhoon Pedring (2011), August 2012 monsoon rains Subsidence
Design took into account a 0.65 cm/yr subsidence rate based on Metro Manila observations between 1979- 1990 (Soil Mechanics Investigation, 2001)
Source: Dr. Fernando Siringan ,University of the Philippines (UP) Marine Science Institute Recommendations
Perform a complete recalculation of flow capacities using long term hydrometeorological forecasts and models. The new models should recognize increased severity and frequency of hydrometeorological activity resulting from climate change, such as greater maximum high tides, rising sea levels, and increased magnitude and frequency of precipitation. New flood control structural designs should incorporate land subsidence caused by pressures from population growth, water usage, and urban planning.
Rebuild CAMANAVA flood control structures capable of sustaining longer term extreme hydrometeorological conditions based on the parameter outputs derived from the modeling. Waste Management Map of Manila Bay
Source: UN Spider Manila Bay Outline
The Subsidence Problem Consequences in Manila Bay Strategic Solutions Conclusions Further Discussion
Source: Siringan, 2012 Sea Level Rise—Groundwater Use
Source: Rodolfo and Siringan, 2006 Current Groundwater Usage
1 million m3 per day (Registered)
3 million m3 per day (Estimated)
Land subsidence: 5-9cm per year
Present rate low-lying areas (<1m) will sink in 10-15 years;
Most of Manila will sink within 100 years.
Key Players
Registered Unregistered Industrial/Commercial Domestic Strategic Solution I: Targeting Registered Users
Install pump meters and have meters checked and read.
Tax groundwater use with a rate that is higher than tap water fare.
Strategic Solution II: Targeting Unregistered Users
Promote pump exchange for rainwater harvesting equipment
Provide the installation service for willing households.
Strategic Solution II: Targeting Unregistered Users (for barangay level)
Each barangay has a basketball court that could serve as harvesting area
Concrete water tanks are to be under the courts when there is no space Mahiga Hope Water Project The Nobelity Project: Austin, Texas Strategic Solution II: Targeting Unregistered Users (for barangay level)
Each tank can contain water that is for 1- month use.
A total of 53 m3 of concrete is required.
Total cost is Php 175,000 (4,280 USD)
Secondary Solution: Recharging the Aquifers Community Preparedness Bacolor, Pampanga, Philippines Mt. Pinatubo Eruption Secondary Problem: Changes to Topography
Gugu Creek Pasig-Portrero River Large scale infrastructure investment Limited Community Development August 2012 Rains
Recommendations
Low Cost Data Community and Monitoring CSO engagement
Inventive Uses of Phone Tree Alert Local Resources Systems
Water Level Markings
Community and CSO Engagement Inventive Uses of Local Resources Phone Tree Alert System Social Networks
30 million + Facebook users in the Philippines
More than 30% of total population
More than 93% of internet population
World’s 10th most active Twitter country
100% cell phone penetration rate
Projected 117 million mobile subscribers by 2016 (114%) M a r i k i n a Resilience Efforts
Save the Marikina River Project – 8M budget
Tree planting : 29, 763 trees in 176km-sidewalk (1997)
Squatter resettlement: 10,000 families were given housing opportunities; 2,216 in 2000
Awards: Cleanest & Greenest Town in NCR, Most Outstanding City in the Philippines, etc.
Capacity to mobilize 5,000persons during disaster operations
Rescue 161 Rescue 161 Office Marikina River Water Monitoring Early Warning System
Alarm Level 1: Water level at 15 meters (Warning)
Alarm Level 2: Water level at 16 (Prepare to Leave)
Alarm Level 3: Water level at 17 meters (Voluntary Evacuation)
Alarm Level 4: Water level at 18 meters (Forced Evacuation)
Alarm Level 5: Water level 19 meters and beyond
August 7, 2012 August 7, 2012 August 7, 2012 August 7, 2012 Evacuation Centers
53,700 individuals (9,642 families) evacuated to 36 evacuation centers Source: Marikina City government Flooding of August 7 & 8
August 6, 7 and 8, 2012 = 1007.4 mm
Ondoy rainfall total (Sept 26, 2009) = 455 mm Source: PAGASA
During Ondoy, the Marikina River reached 23 meters
At 2:00 pm on August 7, the Marikina River reached 20.6 meters
Database Form Twitter
@gmanews Twitter Facebook Data Source
Limitations
Small Dataset Benefits
Not All Fields Required Immediate Information
Technological Bias Needs + Location
Strategic Bias Qualitative Value
Incentives for Accuracy Requests for Aid
Stranded 1 5 2 6 Stranded, In Need of Supplies
Medical Emergency, In Need of Supplies, 20 Stranded Medical Emergency, Stranded
63 In Need of Supplies
Medical Emergency, In Need of Supplies Aid Requests by Hour During the First 24 Hours (14:25 Aug 7 - 14:24 Aug 8) 25
21 20
15 15
10 10 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Requests by Barangay
Tumana 28
San Roque 3
Provident Village 15
Nangka 6
Malanday 27
Industrial Valley Complex 10
Concepcion Dos 2
Concepcion Dos 6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Barangays by Day 30
25 24
21 20
7-Aug
15 8-Aug 11
10 9-Aug
6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Concepcion Concepcion Industrial Malanday Nangka Provident San Roque Tumana Uno Dos Valley Village Complex Tumana Malanday Provident Village Evacuation Centers
53,700 individuals (9,642 families) evacuated to 36 evacuation centers Official Numbers, Marikina City government
(Café Kapitan – Santa Elena) A Measure of DRM Success?
Marikina resident deaths during Ondoy: 35
Marikina resident deaths during August floods: 0
Salamat po! Thank you!