Computational Conflict Research
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Computational Social Sciences Emanuel Deutschmann Jan Lorenz Luis G. Nardin Davide Natalini Adalbert F. X. Wilhelm Editors Computational Con ict Research Computational Social Sciences Computational Social Sciences A series of authored and edited monographs that utilize quantitative and compu- tational methods to model, analyze and interpret large-scale social phenomena. Titles within the series contain methods and practices that test and develop theories of complex social processes through bottom-up modeling of social interactions. Of particular interest is the study of the co-evolution of modern communication technology and social behavior and norms, in connection with emerging issues such as trust, risk, security and privacy in novel socio-technical environments. Computational Social Sciences is explicitly transdisciplinary: quantitative methods from fields such as dynamical systems, artificial intelligence, network theory, agent- based modeling, and statistical mechanics are invoked and combined with state-of- the-art mining and analysis of large data sets to help us understand social agents, their interactions on and offline, and the effect of these interactions at the macro level. Topics include, but are not limited to social networks and media, dynamics of opinions, cultures and conflicts, socio-technical co-evolution and social psychology. Computational Social Sciences will also publish monographs and selected edited contributions from specialized conferences and workshops specifically aimed at communicating new findings to a large transdisciplinary audience. A fundamental goal of the series is to provide a single forum within which commonalities and differences in the workings of this field may be discerned, hence leading to deeper insight and understanding. Series Editors: Elisa Bertino Larry S. Liebovitch Purdue University, West Lafayette, Queens College, City University of IN, USA New York, Flushing, NY, USA Claudio Cioffi-Revilla Sorin A. Matei George Mason University, Fairfax, Purdue University, West Lafayette, VA , U S A IN, USA Jacob Foster Anton Nijholt University of California, Los Angeles, University of Twente, Enschede, CA, USA The Netherlands Nigel Gilbert Andrzej Nowak University of Surrey, Guildford, UK University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland Jennifer Golbeck Robert Savit University of Maryland, College Park, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MD, USA MI, USA Bruno Gonçalves Flaminio Squazzoni New York University, New York, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy NY, USA Alessandro Vinciarelli James A. Kitts University of Glasgow, Glasgow, University of Massachusetts Scotland, UK Amherst, MA, USA More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11784 Emanuel Deutschmann • Jan Lorenz • Luis G. Nardin Davide Natalini • Adalbert F. X. Wilhelm Editors Computational Conflict Research Editors Emanuel Deutschmann Jan Lorenz Institute of Sociology Bremen International Graduate University of Gottingen¨ School of Social Sciences Gottingen,¨ Germany Jacobs University Bremen, Germany Luis G. Nardin Davide Natalini Department of Informatics Global Sustainability Institute Brandenburg University of Technology Anglia Ruskin University Cottbus, Germany Cambridge, UK Adalbert F. X. Wilhelm Bremen International Graduate School of Social Sciences Jacobs University Bremen Bremen, Germany ISSN 2509-9574 ISSN 2509-9582 (electronic) Computational Social Sciences ISBN 978-3-030-29332-1 ISBN 978-3-030-29333-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-29333-8 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2020. This book is an open access publication. Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements Most of the contributors of this book met at the BIGSSS Summer School in Computational Social Science: Research Incubators on Data-driven Modeling of Conflicts, which took place from July 23 to August 3, 2018 at Jacobs University in Bremen, Germany. The summer school was organized by Jan Lorenz, Arline Rave, Klaus Boehnke, Adalbert Wilhelm, and Emanuel Deutschmann and was possible through financial support from Volkswagen Foundation, via a grant in their initiative International Research in Computational Social Sciences (grant nr. 92145). Most of the chapters originate from the research started in the research incubators at the summer school, and we are pleased that the teams continued to work together after leaving Bremen to turn their projects into the chapters that now form this book. We, the editors, would like to thank Arline Rave for her extraordinary dedication in organizing the summer school. James Kitts provided important support and advice; Lisa Gutowski assisted in finalizing the back matter of the book. We are also grateful to Henrik Dobewall and Peter Holtz who gave helpful input and to the editors at Springer Nature for their support in the publishing process. Thanks to Volkswagen Foundation, this book is also available open access and free for anyone to read. Most importantly, we would like to thank the authors for their contributions to this book. v Contents Advancing Conflict Research Through Computational Approaches ....... 1 Emanuel Deutschmann, Jan Lorenz, and Luis G. Nardin Part I Data and Methods in Computational Conflict Research Advances in Data on Conflict and Dissent..................................... 23 Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Text as Data for Conflict Research: A Literature Survey.................... 43 Seraphine F. Maerz and Cornelius Puschmann Interdependencies in Conflict Dynamics: Analyzing Endogenous Patterns in Conflict Event Data Using Relational Event Models ........... 67 Laurence Brandenberger Part II Computational Research on Non-violent Conflict Migration Policy Framing in Political Discourse: Evidence from Canada and the USA ...................................................... 83 Sanja Hajdinjak, Marcella H. Morris, and Tyler Amos The Role of Network Structure and Initial Group Norm Distributions in Norm Conflict ................................................. 113 Julian Kohne, Natalie Gallagher, Zeynep Melis Kirgil, Rocco Paolillo, Lars Padmos, and Fariba Karimi On the Fate of Protests: Dynamics of Social Activation and Topic Selection Online and in the Streets ............................................. 141 Ahmadreza Asgharpourmasouleh, Masoud Fattahzadeh, Daniel Mayerhoffer, and Jan Lorenz vii viii Contents Part III Computational Research on Violent Conflict Do Non-State Armed Groups Influence Each Other in Attack Timing and Frequency? Generating, Analyzing, and Comparing Empirical Data and Simulation.................................................. 167 Simone Cremaschi, Baris Kirdemir, Juan Masullo, Adam R. Pah, Nicolas Payette, and Rithvik Yarlagadda On the Beaten Path: Violence Against Civilians and Simulated Conflict Along Road Networks ................................................. 183 Andrea Salvi, Mark Williamson, and Jessica Draper Analysis of Conflict Diffusion Over Continuous Space ...................... 201 Claire Kelling and YiJyun Lin Rebel Group Protection Rackets: Simulating the Effects of Economic Support on Civil War Violence .................................. 225 Frances Duffy, Kamil C. Klosek, Luis G. Nardin, and Gerd Wagner Online Material................................................................... 253 Index ............................................................................... 257 Contributors Tyler Amos Social Science Division, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA Ahmadreza Asgharpourmasouleh Department of Social Sciences, Ferdowsi Uni- versity of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran Laurence Brandenberger Department of Management, Technology and Eco- nomics, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Simone Cremaschi Department of Political and Social Sciences, European Uni- versity Institute, Florence, Italy Emanuel Deutschmann Institute of Sociology, University of Göttingen,