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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment

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Vulnerability and Risk Assessment VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT Procjena ranjivosti i rizika od klimatskih promjena Otok Korčula ožujak, 2020. Autori: Duška Šaša, dipl.ing.biol., univ.spec.oecoing. Dr.sc. Vedran Kirinčić Dr.sc. Duško Radulović SADRŽAJ 1. UVOD .................................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Cilj projekta................................................................................................................... 1 1.2. Cilj ove analize ............................................................................................................. 3 2. METODOLOŠKI OKVIR ZA IZRADU ANALIZE RIZIKA ....................................................... 4 3. PROCJENE KLIMATSKIH PROMJENA U BUDUĆNOSTI .................................................. 9 4. ANALIZA RIZIKA POJEDINIH SEKTORA NA UTJECAJE KLIMATSKIH PROMJENA ...... 15 4.1. Poljoprivreda .............................................................................................................. 15 4.1.1. Procjena rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena ...................................... 20 4.1.1.1 Analiza opasnog događaja ............................................................................... 21 4.1.1.2 Analiza osjetljivosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............................ 22 4.1.1.3 Analiza kapaciteta prilagodbe sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............ 26 4.1.1.4 Analiza izloženosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............................. 31 4.1.1.5 Rezultati procjene rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................... 33 4.2. Šumarstvo .................................................................................................................. 41 4.2.1. Procjena rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena ...................................... 45 4.2.1.1 Analiza opasnog događaja ............................................................................... 45 4.2.1.2 Analiza osjetljivosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............................ 46 4.2.1.3 Analiza kapaciteta prilagodbe sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............ 51 4.2.1.4 Analiza izloženosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ............................. 62 4.2.1.5 Rezultati procjene rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................... 65 4.3. Vodoopskrba .............................................................................................................. 74 4.3.1. Procjena rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena ...................................... 81 4.3.1.1 Analiza opasnog događaja ........................................................................... 82 4.3.1.2 Analiza osjetljivosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ......................... 82 4.3.1.3 Analiza kapaciteta prilagodbe sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ........ 84 4.3.1.4 Analiza izloženosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ......................... 86 4.3.1.5 Rezultati procjene rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena ................. 89 4.4. Zdravlje ...................................................................................................................... 97 4.4.1. Procjena rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................................... 100 4.4.1.1 Analiza opasnog događaja ............................................................................. 100 4.4.1.2 Analiza osjetljivosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena .......................... 101 4.4.1.3 Analiza kapaciteta prilagodbe sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena .......... 104 4.4.1.1 Analiza izloženosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ........................... 108 4.4.1.2 Rezultati procjene rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................. 108 4.5. Turizam .................................................................................................................... 116 4.5.1. Procjena rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................................... 120 4.5.1.1 Analiza opasnog događaja ............................................................................. 121 4.5.1.2 Analiza osjetljivosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena .......................... 121 4.5.1.3 Analiza kapaciteta prilagodbe sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena .......... 124 4.5.1.4 Analiza izloženosti sektora na utjecaje klimatskih promjena ........................... 126 4.5.1.5 Rezultati procjene rizika sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .................. 129 4.6. Ribarstvo .................................................................................................................. 136 4.6.1. Ribarstvo na području otoka Korčule ................................................................. 138 4.6.2. Procjena ranjivosti sektora od utjecaja klimatskih promjena .............................. 140 4.7. Obalni pojas ............................................................................................................. 142 5. ZAKLJUČAK .................................................................................................................... 147 6. IZVORI ............................................................................................................................ 150 POPIS SLIKA Slika 2-1: Osnovni koncept rizika utjecaja klimatskih promjena (prema Risk Supplement) .......... 4 Slika 2-2: Agregiranje indikatora za pojedine komponente rizika ................................................ 6 Slika 3-1: Promjene srednje maksimalne temperature zraka .................................................... 11 Slika 3-2: Promjene srednje godišnje količine oborine .............................................................. 12 Slika 3-3: Promjene srednjeg broja vrućih dana ........................................................................ 12 Slika 3-4: Promjene srednjeg broja tropskih noći ...................................................................... 13 Slika 3-5: Promjene srednjeg trajanja toplih razdoblja............................................................... 13 Slika 3-6: Promjene srednjeg broja vrlo kišnih dana ................................................................. 14 Slika 3-7: Promjene maksimalnog trajanja sušnih razdoblja...................................................... 14 Slika 4-1: Struktura zaposlenih na otoku Korčuli ....................................................................... 17 Slika 4-2: Struktura poljoprivrednih gospodarstava na otoku Korčuli ......................................... 18 Slika 4-3: Dob nositelja OPG-ova na otoku Korčuli ................................................................... 19 Slika 4-4: Pregled indikatora komponenti rizika za sektor poljoprivrede .................................... 21 Slika 4-5: Struktura korištenog poljoprivrednog zemljišta prema podacima Popisa poljoprivrede 2003. ........................................................................................................................................ 23 Slika 4-6: Struktura korištenog poljoprivrednog zemljišta prema ARKOD podacima (2019.) ..... 23 Slika 4-7: Jedinične potrebe za vodom u poljoprivredi .............................................................. 24 Slika 4-8: Udio zaposlenih u sektoru Poljoprivreda, šumarstvo i ribarstvo starijih od 60 godina 25 Slika 4-9: Udio nositelja OPG-ova starijih od 65 godina ............................................................ 26 Slika 4-10: BDP indeks ............................................................................................................. 29 Slika 4-11: Struktura razina obrazovanja nositelja OPG-ova ..................................................... 30 Slika 4-12: Udio ARKOD površina ............................................................................................ 31 Slika 4-13: Udio zaposlenih u sektoru poljoprivrede, ribarstva i šumarstva ............................... 32 Slika 4-14: Procijenjeni rizik sektora poljoprivrede od suša za područje otoka Korčule ............. 40 Slika 4-15: Trend opožarene površine šuma u Republici Hrvatskoj u razdoblju od 2000.-2017. godine ...................................................................................................................................... 42 Slika 4-16: Odnos opožarene površine šuma na kršu i kontinentu ............................................ 43 Slika 4-17: Prostorna raspodjela šumsko-gospodarskih jedinica na otoku Korčuli .................... 44 Slika 4-18: Pregled indikatora komponenti rizika za sektor šumarstva ...................................... 45 Slika 4-19: Karta klimazonalne vegetacije Hrvatske .................................................................. 47 Slika 4-20: Površine državnih šuma po dobnim razredima na otoku Korčuli ............................. 49 Slika 4-21: Operativne vatrogasne postrojbe na području Dubrovačko-neretvanske županije ..... 0 Slika 4-22: Otvorenost šuma (ŠGOP RH 2006-2015) ............................................................... 59 Slika 4-23: Otvorenost šuma (ŠGOP RH 2016-2025) ............................................................... 60 Slika 4-24: Indeks obrazovanosti JLS otoka Korčule................................................................. 61 Slika 4-25: Udio šuma prema vlasništvu na području otoka Korčule ......................................... 63 Slika 4-26: Udio šuma u JLS otoka Korčule .............................................................................
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