Report on Detailed Weekly Piracy Report and On-the-Ground Analysis

Piracy - At Sea - On Land - Domestic News - International Developments Report on Somalia ~ SUMMARY May 28 - June 10, 2012 (week 21 - 22)

At Sea:

• During this reporting period, the number of piracy incidents in the High Risk Area Key Statistics (HRA) has remained low with no reports of successful hijackings occurring. There was one report of an attack on a ocean-going tug, the VOUKEFALAS (Pages 4 • Hijacks: 0 and 13). • Attacks: 1 • Releases: 1 Weather Analysis:

• As the South-west monsoon season continues to develop, the weather forecast throughout the following week will continue to be less favorable for pirate activity. Water conditions will be unfavorable for small skiffs and boats along the coast of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania. Further out into the ocean, water conditions will also be less favorable for smaller vessels and will remain unfavorable throughout the week, as such, any pirate attacks or hijackings to occur further out in the ocean will likely be done so by motherships. Water conditions closer to the coasts of Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania will improve slightly however conditions will remain unfavorable for smaller craft to maneuver in the area. It has been assessed that pirates operating in skiffs or small boats will likely stay within the Gulf of Aden, as water conditions in the area will be more favorable for smaller craft. Therefore vessels traveling through the area are advised to exercise extreme caution as it is likely that attacks or hijackings will be concentrated in the Gulf of Aden (Pages 6 - 7).

Updates:

• MT LIQUID VELVET - reports have confirmed that the Greek-owned Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker was released by Somali pirates on 4 June (Page 4). • MV ORNA - pirates have been claiming that the crew members on board the vessel have been suffering from ailments however this has been seen as an attempt made by the pirate gang in order to speed up the ransom agreement (Page 4). • MV ALBEDO - little progress continues to be made in the efforts to release the hostages that are onboard the vessel as donor commitments for the ransom have failed to deliver the money on time (Pages 4 - 5). • Hostages - Sources have indicated that the two Spanish female hostages from MSF, Montserrat Serra and Blanca Thiebaut, have been moved into al-Shabaab-held (Page 5).

Piracy Related News:

• 6 June 2012 - The Marine Police Force (PMPF) attacked covered pirate vehicles in Bali-Dhidddin village in the district of Puntland’s Bar region (Page 5 - 6). • 1 June 2012 - Pirates who are accused of kidnapping Paul and Rachel Chandler could be taken to the UK to stand trail (Page 6). • 31 May 2012 - Marking the first time that countries have repatriated pirates who have finished their sentences, 18 Somali pirates were returned to Puntland from India (Page 6). • 29 May 2012 - al-Shabaab militants, who are battling for control of Somalia, have claimed that they repelled two warships that were near their stronghold of Kismayo, a port city in Somalia’s Lower Jubba region (Page 6). • The Puntland government along with the Puntland Police Marine Force (PMPF) entered on 26 May and captured six pirates (Page 6).

24 hr Global Contact: +44 207 754 3555 www.msrisk.com On Land:

• Insecurity across Somalia has continued as the allied forces proceeded to fight al-Shabaab; rising pressure from the West begins to mount as the deadline for the Presidential elections in August draws nearer. Subsequently stabilization of the country, and preventing further attacks from al-Shabaab, will continue to be key issues on the agendas of the allied forces during the following months. Over the past two weeks, several attacks have occurred in central Somalia however the bulk of the fighting has taken place in the southern part of the country, especially in the region of Lower Jubba, as the allied forces are preparing to attack the port of Kismayo which remains a key strategic town for al-Shabaab (Page 8 - 10).

International Developments:

• 8 June 2012 - UK Prime Minister David Cameron has signed an agreement with Mauritius which will allow for the transfer and prosecution of suspected Somali pirates who have been captured by the British Navy to occur on the Indian Ocean Island (Page 10 - 11). • The United States has announced that they will offer millions of dollars for the whereabouts of seven key members of al-Shabaab (Page 11). • 31 May 2012 - Coverage of the two-day Conference on Somalia which is taking place in Istanbul, Turkey (Page 11 - 12). • 29 May 2012 - More than half of the former crewmen of the MAERSK ALABAMA have filed lawsuits against Maersk Line Ltd ((Page 12). • 28 May 2012 - Al-Shabaab likely responsible for an explosion that killed 33 in the capital city of Nairobi (Page 12).

Next Week’s Edition Will Include a Special Report on West African Piracy Report on Somalia May 28 - June 10, 2012 (week 21 - 22)

At Sea:

• During this reporting period the number of piracy incidents in the High Risk Area (HRA) has remained low with no successful hijackings occurring. Due to the Key Statistics South-west monsoon season, which occurs between June and September, sea conditions are expected to remain generally unfavorable for smaller boats and • Hijacks: 0 skiffs. • Attacks: 1 • 1 June 2012 - in the Gulf of Aden, the VOUKEFALAS, a Panamanian-flagged • Releases: 1 ocean-going tug was attacked in position 11:14N - 047:59E, approximately 70 nautical miles west of Bosasso, Somalia. The vessel reported being fired upon by pirates in one skiff. Coalition Naval forces, that were in the area at the time of the attack, launched a helicopter in order to assist the tug while local security forces launched one small boat which managed to disperse the pirates. The vessel and crew have been reported safe.

Updates:

• MT LIQUID VELVET - reports have confirmed that the MT LIQUID VELVET, a Greek-owned Marshall Islands- flagged chemical tanker, which was hijacked on 31 October of last year, was released by Somali pirates on 4 June. There are unconfirmed reports which place the ransom at more than US $4 million however these reports have not been verified. The vessel, which has 21 crew members from the Philippines on board, was taken in the Gulf of Aden in position 12:02N - 045:38E after it was attacked by eight pirates in a skiff. At the time of the attack, the vessel was transiting from the Suez to India. The 17-year old tanker has a gross tonnage of 5,998 tons and is owned by Athens-based Elmira Tankers. The initial ransom demand was US $8 million and was requested 49 days after the vessel was hijacked however it has not yet been established as to how much the hijackers received for the release of the vessel. It is believed that the Liquid Velvet was being held by Aw-Kombe, a well-known pirate from the Bari region. Upon its release, the vessel was heading to the port of Salalah in Oman. The Philippine embassy in Muscat has been asked to send representatives in order to meet the vessel and provide assistance to the crew members once the vessel docks. • MV ORNA - Pirates in Haradhere have stated that crew members on the MV ORNA have been suffering from ailments possibly related to poor diet and water. However such warnings of dire situations and poor health have been previously used as attempts by the pirate gangs to place pressure on the owners in order to receive a ransom payment. According to sources, the negotiations to release the vessel have failed at least five times. Initially reports indicated that the pirates had demanded a ransom of US $3 million which was then reduced to US $1.2 million. Although part of the vessel was damaged by fire in an accident last year, the vessel is still functioning and has been used as a mothership three times. The 19 crew members on board are comprised of 18 Syrians and one Sri Lankan who have been held hostage since the vessel was hijacked in December of 2010. The vessel is currently in the area between Haradhere and Handule. Several weeks ago, an EU aircraft targeted equipment that belonged to the hijackers of of the MV ALBEDO and the MV ORNA, in a small camp near Handule. The pirate group which is holding the vessel is led by Abdi Dheere, a pirate leader from the Saleban clan while the investors are Buundo (a pirate from Cayr) and Xuseen Jiis (a pirate from Saleban). • MV ALBEDO - reports have indicated that there has been little progress in the efforts to secure the release of the hostages onboard the MV ALBEDO as donor commitments have failed to collect and deliver the ransom amount to the Somali pirates. Following negotiations with the pirate gang, it was agreed that a ransom of US $2.85 million would be paid. The Malaysian-flagged vessel is owned by Malaysian-based shop owner Omid Khosrojerdi who confirmed that US $1.25 million would be arranged by him while the remaining balance, US $1.6 million, would be arranged by Pakistan in order to ensure the release of the hostages. Families of the Pakistani crew appealed to the public in a bid to raise the remaining funds, they also launched a massive fund collection drive through the media as well as through door to door collection. On 15 May 2012, the Malaysian owners of the vessel confirmed to Pakistan that it would pay the remaining amount however it has been over

24 hr Global Contact: +44 207 754 3555 www.msrisk.com three weeks since the Pakistani families fulfilled their commitment while they have been unable to contact the Malaysian owner as he has been suffering from severe illness. Furthermore, Pakistan has also learned from the Malaysian government that the vessels owner is not in their contact. The families of those onboard are now extremely concerned as pirates have been subjecting them to intense pressure tactics, threatening the hostages with dire consequences on a daily basis and warning them that if the money is not delivered, their lives would be at risk. Pakistan’s High Commissioner in Malaysia has been in constant contact with the Malaysian government however little information has been released pertaining to the on-going situation. The Kenya-bound vessel was hijacked in November 2010 in the Gulf of Aden, after leaving Jebel. Ransom payment for the 22 crew members was initially due in April of this year under a deal that was negotiated through -based Somali merchants. Families raised some of the amount and the deadline was extended to await the remaining share from the ship’s owner. The crew members comprise of seven Pakistanis, seven Bangladeshi, six Sri Lankan's, and one Indian and Iranian. • Hostages - Sources have indicated that the gunmen who are holding the two Spanish female hostages from MSF, Montserrat Serra and Blanca Thiebaut, have moved the women into al-Shabaab-held Kismayo as a result of the recent AMISOM offensive in Afgoye. The two women were transported from their previous location overnight to Marka and then to Kismayo, however such a move may be the downfall of the pirate group as pressure against al-Shabaab in Kismayo is increasing as foreign allies begin to surround the area. The aid workers were originally kidnapped from Dadaab refugee camp in Kenya in October of last year. They were previously held in Elasha Biyaha, which is located on the outskirts of .

Merchant Vessels Presently Held by Somali Pirates:

NAME FLAG TYPE HIJACKED DATE

Iceberg I Panama RO/RO 29 March 2010

MV Albedo Malaysia Container Cargo 25 November 2010

MV Orna Panama Bulk Cargo 20 December 2010

Shiuh FU No. 1 Taiwan Fishing Vessel 25 December 2010

Free Goddess Liberia Bulk Cargo 7 February 2012

MT Royal Grace Panama Chemical Tanker 2 March 2012

FV Naham 3 Taiwan Fishing Vessel 26 March 2012

Al Abass Yemen Fishing Vessel 21 April 2012

MT Smyrni liberia Tanker 10 May 2012

Piracy Related News:

• 6 June 2012 - The Puntland Marine Police Force (PMPF) attacked covered pirate vehicles in Bali-Dhidddin village in the of Puntland’s Bar region. Officials stated that forces in a helicopter fired on a house in the village where the pirates were believe to be stationed. According to the mayor of the village, Bari Jama Mohamed Kuurshe, the attack resulted in one casualty among the pirates while three trucks with heavy machine guns mounted on the back were destroyed. According to local officials, the vehicles and pirates that were attacked were under the command of Isse Yuluxa, a well-known pirate who is currently holding the hijacked MT SMYRNI and MT ROYAL GRACE and the crew members of the vessels. According to residents in the town, the strikes were targeting a group of Somali pirates who had arrived in the district in the last 24 hours after vacating the Bargal district. The attack comes several days after Puntland’s troops launched a raid on the pirate invested town of Bargal. (Above, an aerial view of the house that was targeted, along with the three three trucks with mounted weapons that are covered by tarps). • 1 June 2012 - Pirates accused of kidnapping a British couple off the coast of Somalia could be taken to the UK to stand Trial. Paul and Rachel Chandler were taken hostage from their yacht and held in Africa for a year before being freed after a ransom was delivered. Government lawyers are presently working with Interpol in order to extradite the Somali pirates who are presently in custody in Kenya. Although it would be unusual for such suspects to be extradited back to the UK for a crime that was committed overseas, both the Home and Foreign Office are keen to take a firm stance on pirates in the Horn of Africa. The men who are accused of boarding the Chandlers’ boat near the Seychelles in 2009 are being held in Kenya for an attack on a French ship. • 31 May 2012 - Marking the first time that countries have repatriated pirates who have finished their sentences, 18 Somali pirates were returned to Puntland from India, this according to Puntland’s Minister for Security, Khalif Issa Mudan. Upon completing their jail terms, the pirates were flown to airport early on Thursday by a chartered plane. The former pirates are now free in Bosaso although there are concerns that they may settle back into their old ways and return to a life of piracy. • 29 May 2012 - Al-Shabaab militants, who are battling for control of Somalia, have claimed that they repelled two warships that were near their stronghold of Kismayo, a port city in Somalia’s Lower Jubba region. Kenyan military spokesman, Cyrus Oguna, has confirmed that a Kenyan naval vessel was near Kismayo at the time that al-Shabaab fired at the vessel which forced the Kenyan Navy to fire back. In addition to Kenyan naval forces, both NATO and EU NAVFOR have warships in the area however EU NAVFOR denied involvement in the incident. Cyrus Oguna, has verified that his forces had shelled the town after al-Shabaab militants opened fire at Kenyan warships who were patrolling the Somali coast at the time. This was the first bombardment of Kismayo by the Kenyans whose naval ships patrol the Somali coast on a regular basis. At this time, it is unclear whether or not the bombardment of the town is part of Kenya’s strategy in order to attack the port of Kismayo which remains to be al-Shabaab’s stronghold. • Reports have been released stating that members of the Puntland government along with the Puntland Police Marine Force (PMPF) entered Hafun on 26 May and captured six pirates amongst which is a suspect named Dhafoor who is believed to be second in command to Isse Yulux, a well-known pirate. Dhafoor and Yulux are believed to be responsible for the capture of a Danish family who at the time were sailing around the world in a 43-foot pleasure yacht named the SV ING. They were kidnapped by pirates in February 2011 and released in September after 6 months of being held hostage. The two pirates are also responsible for capturing the MV DOVER and the ENRICO LEVOLI which was released in April of this year. Dhafoor is also being held on charges of ambushing and murdering five and injuring eleven Puntland government security forces members in Hul Anod back in March 2011. Minister Khalif Issa Mudan, who is presently in Hafun, confirmed that the town remains peaceful as no injuries or fatalities occurred when the troops entered. The names of the six pirates who were arrested have been released: suspected commander Maxed Maxud Dhafoor (age 36), and suspects Khalif Salalah Sicid (35), Clsalaan Ahmed Hassan (29), Ayaanle Said Mahamed (40), Abdi Said Mahamed (30) and Abdrizak Ibrahim Ali (19). Entry in to the remote coast area of Hafun was not easy as locals have forged alliances with the pirate groups who reside in the area and they have a long standing enmity against the government of Puntland. The locals have accused the government of not providing the basics in the remote region which has in effect forced them to increase their association with the pirates. The region has long been a base for pirates due to its strategic location.

Weather Analysis

• Gulf of Aden - West-southwesterly winds of 10 - 15 knots with seas of 2 - 4 feet. • Extended Forecast - West-southwesterly winds will continue but will increase to 12 - 16 knots, seas will remain at 2 - 4 feet. • Somali Coast - Significant impacts throughout the region due to strong winds and high seas as a result of the South-west Monsoon which will be taking over the region from June until September. South- southwesterly winds of 25 - 30 knots are expected and will gust up to 35 knots in or near thunderstorms with seas 9 - 12 feet. • Extended Forecast - South-southwesterly winds of 25 - 30 knots are expected to continue with winds gusting to 35 knots in or near thunderstorms. Seas will increase to 10 - 14 feet. • Arabian Sea - South-westerly winds of 10 - 15 knots with seas of 7 - 9 feet.

24 hr Global Contact: +44 207 754 3555 www.msrisk.com • Extended Forecast - West-southwesterly winds of 10 - 15 knots are expected with seas remaining at 7 - 9 feet. • Central African Coast/Indian Ocean - The Tanzanian and Kenyan coastal regions will continue to be influenced by the South-western monsoon pattern. During this forecast period, the region will also see marginal impact from a tropical cyclone, Keuna, which is currently located over the south-western Indian Ocean. Winds are expected to be south-southeasterly at 15 - 20 knots, gusting up to 35 knots in or near thunderstorms with seas of 5 - 7 feet. • Extended Forecast - South-southwesterly winds are expected to continue with winds of 25 - 30 knots, gusting to 35 knots in or near thunderstorms, with seas remaining at 5 - 7 feet. • Mozambique Channel - Expect south-southeasterly winds in the northern channel at 12 - 16 knots with seas of 5 - 7 feet. In the southern channel, variable winds of 4 - 6 knots with seas of 6 - 8 feet. • Extended Forecast - In the northern channel, expect south-southwesterly winds at 20 - 25 knots with seas of 3 - 5 feet with occasional swells of 5 - 7 feet. In the southern channel, winds will be south- southwesterly at 15 - 2 knots with seas of 9 - 12 feet. • Surface Currents - Currents within the Somalia Basin and the gulf of Aden average approximately 1 - 1.5 knots. The speed of the currents along the Somali coast, continuing south off the northern Kenya coastline until about 10 degrees South, will average 2 - 3 knots. The Mozambique Channel has an average current of 1 - 2 knots, however the current speed along the northwestern portion of the channel will average 2 - 3 knots.

Sea Conditions For This Week:

*** In these graphics, the green shading represents a reduced likelihood of small boats and skiffs operating in the area due to harsh sea conditions, while the red indicates a higher likelihood of favorable sea conditions for skiffs and small boats *** On Land:

• 8 June 2012 - In the capital city of Mogadishu, unknown gunmen armed with pistols shot and injured a radio journalist during the evening hours. The victim was injured in the Hamar-jajab district of Mogadishu. The perpetrators shot six bullets at the Radio Bar-Kulan correspondent as he was heading to his house in . The journalist suffered injuries in the stomach and was admitted to a hospital near by. No one has claimed responsibility for this attack however in the past, al-Shabaab have targeted those in the media industry, therefore it is highly likely that the terrorist group is behind this attack. • Garbaharey, at least five people were killed and three others were wounded after heavy fighting occurred between Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and TFG soldiers against al-Shabaab fighters on the outskirts of Garbaharey which is the provincial headquarters of region. TFG commanders in Garbaharey

have claimed Caluula DJIBOUTI GULF OF A D E N Breeda t h a t t h e y Asayita Bandar Murcaayo Gees Djibouti Boosaaso Gwardafuy Saylac Raas (Bender Cassim) Butyaalo killed at least Dikhil Surud Bargaal Raas Maskan Qandala ceel Raas Ja Raas Binna three al- Silil Khansiir Xiis Maydh Laasqoray Karin D Daho t a Hurdiyo rr Raas S h a b a a b AWDAL o Bullaxaar Ceerigaabo (Erigavo) BARIB ARI Xaafuun Xaafuun fighters in the Baki SA NAAG Iskushuban K Boorama WOQOOYI arkaar Mountains battle. D Burco Dire Dawa GALBEED e Togwajaale r (Burao) Garadag Bandarbeyla Dudo • 7 June 2012 - At Nazret Hargeysa Harer Jijiga Oodweyne Xudun least three civilians Kiridh Taxeex TOGDHEER SOOL E w e r e s e r i o u s l y yl Buuhoodle Laascaanood injured as a result of Degeh Bur NUGNUGAALAAL Raas Gori Rit Gabbac Kenyan airstrikes in Eyl the Lower Jubba Berdaale Xamure region of southern ETHIOPIA Werder Beyra Seemade Gaalkacyo (Galcaio) Garacad Somalia. Medical Megalo K'ebri Dahar Imi o f fi c i a l s a t t h e War Galoh Gode Shilabo Baxdo Mirsaale Hilalaya Kismayo General Mereer-Gur Hospital confirmed Dhuusamarreeb Hargele (Dusa Marreb) that the casualties Hobyo Ferfer Ceel Huur had occurred in Ceel Buur W Beledweyne Xarardheere e b i

villages between the Derri

Dolo Bay Xuddur HIRAANS h IN DIAN OCEAN a Buulobarde (Oddur) b B a d h a d h e a n d e Ceeldheere Tayeeglow e l l e

Kismayo districts. Garbahaarrey Baydhabo SHABELLE The KDF and TFG KENYA (Baidoa) GEDO Mahadday DHEXE Buurhakaba Weym soldiers have not El Beru Hagia Wanlaweyn Cadale Diinsoor BAY Jawhar (Giohar) spoken about the Baardheere Balcad Afgooye W e airstrikes. b Muqdisho (Mogadishu) i SOMALIA Qoryooley J Wajir u BANADIR JUBA b b SHABELLE • Meanwhile in a Marka (Merca) National capital DHEXDHEXE HOOSE Baidoa, two Haaway Regional capital Baraawe Town, village civilians were Bu'aale Afmadow Airport k i l l e d i n a International boundary Bilis Qooqaani Regional boundary g r e n a d e Jamaame JUBA Undetermined boundary HOOSE SOMALIA Main road attack on a Kismaayo (Chisimayu) Track

local money Isole Railroad Giuba e x c h a n g e 0 50100 150 200 km market. The Buur Gaabo Raas 0 50 100 mi Kaambooni grenade was The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map - do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. -

h u r l e d b y Garsen Lamu u n k n o w n perpetrators who managed to escape the scene. Government and city officials have reached the scene and started security operations however they have not identified the individuals who are responsible for the attacks.

24 hr Global Contact: +44 207 754 3555 www.msrisk.com • 6 June 2012 - One civilian was killed and three others were injured in an explosion that occurred in central Somalia on Wednesday night. According to ASWJ officials, the explosion occurred in a local restaurant at Wabxo village in the region of Galgaduud however it is not yet clear who is behind the attack. • 5 June 2012 - As the allied forces of Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia advance and seize more land from al- Shabaab insurgents, al-Shabaab’s stronghold and economic hub is increasingly becoming tense as residents of the city are on the edge in anticipation of fighting. As the allied forces move closer to the city, hundreds of families have fled Kismayo which has prompted the Islamist group to call on locals in order to join their efforts to reinforce its ranks. On 31 May of this year, the militia held a military exercise and parade in Kismayo stadium where al-Shabaab displayed hundreds of foreign jihadi fighters to the public. During the parade, senior officials from al-Shabaab also called on Kismayo residents, especially the youth, to defend the city from the impending allied attack. Multiple sources have indicated that in the last few days, multiple fighters with battle wagons were seen fleeing to villages located close to the beach of . Furthermore, reports have indicated that the commissioner of along with other senior officials have also fled the city once government and Kenyan troops headed to Bu’ale district of the Lower Jubba region. Additionally, government troops have made advances in a small village about 20 km of Bu’ale. • Meanwhile TFG and Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) troops seized the town of Bilbi, which is located 45km from Afmadow and 75 km from Kismayo, after al-Shabaab militia fled the area. Fighting erupted after the noon hour when TFG and KDF forces attacked the area and forced al-Shabaab fighters out. Since capturing the town of Afmadow, the forces have been approaching the port city of Kismayo, stating that they will attack the last remaining al-Shabaab stronghold in the coming days. Local residents in Bilbi have confirmed that al-Shabaab fighters have left the area and are now re-grouping in Slinka Dheer which is located not far from Bilbi. Residents now fear that those al-Shabaab fighters who escaped may employ hit and run attacks coupled with the possibility that heavy fighting may break out on the route between Afmadow and Kismayo where the majority of al-Shabaab fighters were sent in order to defend an attack on Kismayo. • 4 June 2012 - Al-Shabaab fighters in Gedo region conducted hit and run attacks in El Adde town, which is located 60 km from Garbaharey, around midnight on Sunday. The attack destroyed the town’s only water pump. The insurgent group also targeted the town’s police station which serves as a base for Somalia’s TFG forces. At midnight, al-Shabaab fighters entered the town and exchanged fire with the TFG forces who were stationed at the police station at the time. This attack comes three months after TFG forces, backed by KDF troops, took over El Adde from al-Shabaab. The forces have remained in the town in order to maintain security. Although no casualties have been reported, residents fear that more fighting will continue as al- Shabaab will no doubtedly employ more hit and run attacks. During the attack, al-Shabaab fighters targeted the town’s only water pump by first destroying the motor with gunfire, and then burning it, essentially making the water undrinkable. Although there are small likes that hold water during the rainy seasons, they are not safe to drink. There are several speculations as to why the militants chose to target the pump, however it has been assumed that either the presence of KDF troops in the town provoked the attack, or al-Shabaab wanted to impose a sanction on El Adde in terms of its basic needs in an attempt to force residents to urge TFG and KDF forces to leave. Al-Shabaab have not commented on this attack. • 3 June 2012 - four civilians were killed and three others were wounded when their vehicle was ambushed by militia near Dusmada which is located 20 kilometers north of Galkayo. The injured people were admitted into local clinics in the city of Galkayo while the casualties included a father and his son who died at the scene. The motive of the attack is not known at this time. • Al-Shabaab fighters attacked a TFG base in the southern outskirts of Qansa-dhere district of Bay region. According to TFG commanders, two militants were injured during the fight in which both sides exchanged brief gunfire. However the al-Shabaab militants eventually fled from the scene. • 2 June 2012 - Unknown gunmen attacked TFG forces in Baidoa, which is the provincial headquarters of the Bay region. The perpetrators hurled a grenade at government forces. One of the suspects was killed while two others were arrested. • In Luuq, Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) in Gedo region of south-western Somalia shot and killed two civilians and wounded ten others between the villages of Yurkud and Bardalle. The casualties occurred after ENDF opened fire on a civilian shuttle that was traveling between Yurkud and Bardalle. According to local and government officials in the Gedo region, the forces mistook the traveling vehicle for an al-Shabaab vehicle. The wounded civilians were admitted to local hospitals in the . • 31 May 2012 - Al-Shabaab insurgents vacated Afmadow town, which was the second strategic town in the Lower Jubba region. Since then, Somali government forces, Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) and Ras Kamboni, a pro-government militia, have peacefully taken over the town as al-Shabaab fled and no fighting took place. Reports have indicated that al-Shabaab vacated the town prior to allied forces entering Afmadow. Allied forces launched an attack on al-Shabaab based in Hayo, which is located 24 km from Afmadow, on Thursday morning prior to invading Afmadow. Al-Shabaab confirmed that the militant group left its stronghold of Afmadow and that the strategic town is now in the hands of Somali and Kenyan soldiers. A day earlier, Kenyan and Somali forces advanced to the edge of Afmadow, a town which was seen to be an obstacle to a concerted advance on al-Shabaab’s main stronghold, the southern port city of Kismayo. The Kenyan incursion is part of a three-pronged offensive taking place in Somalia against al-Shabaab. The terrorist group is also battling Ethiopian troops in central Somalia and an African Union force near the capital of Mogadishu. Seizing Afmadow is a crucial step in the Kenyan drive towards the southern port of Kismayo which remains to be the hub of al-Shabaab operation and which is located about 120 km (75 miles) southeast of Afmadow. Afmadow is the second important town which was seized from al-Shabaab within the past two weeks after Afgoye town, which is located 30km from Mogadishu, which was captured by African Union and government forces last week. • Meanwhile reports coming from Afgoye, located 30km northwest of Mogadishu, have indicated that fighting between al-Shabaab and government forces erupted in the town after dozens of fighters from the group attacked government bases in the town on Thursday night. The fighting then spread across the town as three different government bases were targeted by al-Shabaab. No casualties were reported however this is the first time that al-Shabaab directly attacked Afgoye since they lost control of the town over a week ago and have indicated that they will continue hit and run attacks against African Union and Somali government forces in both Afgoye and in Mogadishu. • 29 May 2012 - Somali President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed survived an assassination attempt during an ambush on his convoy which occurred on the outskirts of the capital city of Mogadishu and which was played out by al-Shabaab militants. Reports have indicated that at least one government soldier was killed while four others were wounded in an ambush that occurred near Alameda in Elasha Biyaha which was recently seized by TFG troops and African Union peacekeepers (AMISOM). As the president’s convoy returned to the capital from the district of Afgoye in the region, an unknown number of armed militants attacked the vehicles on the road between Mogadishu and Afgoye. A heavy gun battle broke out once the convoy had reached the Alameda area. The attack occurred at about 3PM local time. The president returned safely to Villa Somalia in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab have claimed responsibility for the attack. During an unofficial visit to Afgoye, a former al-Shabaab stronghold, President Sharif told reporters that his government is offering amnesty to any remaining al-Shabaab fighters that want to surrender to the government. In the mean time, allied forces conducted a massive security operation in the neighborhoods of Afgoye. At least 300 suspects were arrested by the Somali National Security Agency and the Somali police following a two day operation. Some of those arrested were said to be al-Shabaab fighters who were hiding in the city in order to conduct hit and run attacks. Some suspects have since been transferred to Mogadishu. • According to residents in Kismayo, one civilian was killed an another was wounded in Daw-dhanaan’s neighborhood after shells from Kenyan warships hit the provincial headquarters of the Lower Jubba region. The port town is the last major rebel stronghold in southern Somalia. Al-Shabaab has confirmed that they exchanged gunfire with foreign warships in the coast of the town and that the foreign warships returned gun fire, killing one civilian and injuring another one. • 28 May 2012 - at least three people have been killed and seven others were injured after al-Shabaab militants attacked TFG bases, which they share with KDF troops, in the Lower Jubba region. Reports have indicated that heavy fighting started overnight when al-Shabaab fighters attacked military bases located in Qoqani and Tabta. TFG forces, who re about 3 - 4 km outside of Afmadow, have launched a massive security operation and are at the moment going village-to-village in search of al-Shabaab militants. TFG officials have also indicated that they are planning to proceed with their push towards re-taking the entire Lower Jubba region. Reports have also indicated that al-Shabaab officials, after fleeing Afgoye in Lower Shabelle region, have reached Gedo region and are making their way towards their stronghold in Kismayo in Lower Jubba.

International Developments:

• 8 June 2012 - UK Prime Minister David Cameron has signed an agreement with Mauritius which will allow for the transfer and prosecution of suspected Somali pirates who have been captured by the British Navy to occur on the Indian Ocean Island. The British PM met his Mauritian counterpart, Navin Ramgoolam, in Downing Street on Friday morning and stated that the deal was an important step in the fight against violent Somali pirates who are operating around the Horn of Africa. Britain has previously signed similar agreements with Tanzania and the Seychelles under which the countries have agreed to process suspected pirates in their

24 hr Global Contact: +44 207 754 3555 www.msrisk.com courts however the island nation has stipulated that no transferred pirates would be charged with an offense that carries a death penalty nor will they be sentenced to death. Amidst lawmakers warning that eight out of ten suspected pirates captured off the coast of Somalia were released without trial, the UK sited concerns that these suspects were allowed to walk free as there was nowhere to put them on trial. As a result, Britain has urged countries in the region to help and take a role in international efforts to tackle piracy. Mauritius is one of several countries in east Africa and the Indian Ocean region either in the midst of conducting trials or intending to try pirates due to Somalia’s lack of legal infrastructure. The government has also indicated that the country is in the process of making arrangements to accept one or two batches of suspected pirates which are set to arrive sometime this month. This agreement is also seen as an important follow up to the London and Istanbul Conferences on Somalia which were held this year and another indication that countries in the region are stepping up their efforts to combat piracy. • Meanwhile the United States has announced that they will offer millions of dollars for the whereabouts of seven key members of al-Shabaab. The announcement, which was posted on the website of the U.S. State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme, offers US $7 million for information pertaining to the whereabouts and present location of Ahmed Abdi Aw-Mohamed who is the founder of al- Shabaab and the group’s operational commander in Somalia. This year, he and al-Qaeda’s leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, released a joint video that formally announced a merger between the two terrorist groups. The announcement of the bounties also follows recent US strikes which have taken out key al- Qaeda leaders, including the killing of Abu Yahya al-Libi who has been considered as being a longtime public face of the group. Al-Shabaab, which has battled Somalia’s transitional government since 2007 has been listed by the US as a terror organization since 2008. The State Department is also offering up to $5 million each for information that will lead to the location of four of Aw-Mohamed’s associates who make up his inner circle: Ibrahim Haji Jama who is a senior leader; Fuad Mohamed Khalaf who is considered to be the group’s leading fundraiser; Bashir Mohamed Mahamoud who is described as a military commander; and Mukhtar Robow who acts as the group’s spiritual leader and spokesman. Additionally, the US is offering up to $3 million each for two of the terror group’s leaders: Zakariya Ismail Ahmed Hersi, described as being the group’s head of intelligence; and Abdullahi Yare who is the head of the group’s media operations. The formation of such bounties is also in response to recent attacks in Kenya which further demonstrate that al-Shabaab’s reach extends well beyond the borders of Somalia. In 2010, al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for suicide bombings in Uganda that killed more than 70 people, it has also threatened attacks against US, Burundian and Kenyan interests in the region. • 31 May 2012 - The Somali Conference in Istanbul, Turkey opened with high expectations as representatives from 54 countries agreed with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon who stated that international forces cannot solve Somalia’s security issues in the long term as the country needs its own strong force in order to do the job. Ban spoke at the conference which is a continuance of the London Conference and which aims to support Somalia in a transition process that will establish a new constitution, parliament and the election of a president by 20 August of this year. Addressing the opening of the two-day conference, Somalia’s Prime Minister, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali outlined a new vision for his country and called on the international community to look at Somalia in a new light. Business leaders, civic society groups and political representatives from both Somalia and other countries will discuss ways to rebuild the country and will focus on reconstruction, energy and water however security within the country remains to be a key factor in the country’s bid for redevelopment. The Conference in Istanbul comes at a time when government forces, supported by the African Union and anti-Islamist militia, continue to fight al-Shabaab which continues to control parts of Somalia. However Somalia’s Prime Minister emphasized that pro-government forces are making significant progress against the terrorist group as they have gained control of the capital city along with large areas of land that were previously ungovernable in both central and southern Somalia all in the past nine months. Although these gains have been significant in the overall fight against al-Shabaab, Ban stated that the international community must help Somalia build its own security apparatus and to establish a rule of law. One of the key items on the agenda is creation of an international fund that will pay for the training and arming of Somali security forces. The second day of the conference will focus on political issues, particularly the preparation for the end of the mandate of Somalia’s transitional government this August. The Somali transitional government is presently under pressure from its Western backers to stabilize those areas of the country that remain under al-Shabaab’s control and to enact political reforms that will allow for parliamentary elections and the formulation of a new constitution. This pressure has resulted in allied forces attacking key al-Shabaab strongholds throughout the country which has resulted in the terrorist group being driven back. Ban has also urged Somalia’s leaders to keep human rights at the center of the political process and to maintain their commitments of allotting 30 percent of the 225 seats in the new parliament to women as well as to ensure the freedom of expression and the safety of journalists. • 29 May 2012 - More than half of the former crewmen of the MAERSK ALABAMA have filed lawsuits against Maersk Line Ltd., the container ship’s owner and operator, as well as against Waterman Steamship who also operated and crewed the vessel. The suit is in response to an attack on the ship by Somali pirates which occurred in April 2009. Although the ship’s Master, Captain Richard Phillips, was initially hailed as a hero, 11 of the former crew members allege that his employers put them in critical danger when the ship sailed within 250 miles of the Somali coast, despite warnings to stay at least 600 miles off the coast due to pirate activity. Legal representatives for the crew have stated that the company ignored warnings about the possible danger for financial gain. The crew members are seeking nearly US $50 million in damages from the Norfolk-based Maersk Line Ltd., and from the Alabama-based Waterman Steamship. The money is to compensate bodily injury claims along with an array of other damages. The two companies have been accused of negligence, failing to provide safe working conditions and failing to pay injured crew members reasonable reparation for medical expenses and lost wages. Both companies deal with US-flagged vessels, as such, crew members generally must be US citizens. In the case of the Maersk Alabama, which had 20 crew members aboard at the time of the hijacking, the crew members came from nine US states and Canada. In response to the lawsuits, Maersk has publicly stated that it is without merit. Waterman Steamship argues that virginia courts have no jurisdiction over the company as it is not registered to do business in the state of Virginia. No hearings have been scheduled in the case which isn’t expected to go to trial until sometime in 2013. • 28 May 2012 - Kenyan police have stated that an explosion which injured 33 in the capital city of Nairobi may have been caused by a bomb, after initial reports which indicated that the blast had been blamed on an electrical fault. The blast tore apart a shopping complex located on Moi Avenue, a major road in the capital city which is busy during the lunchtime period. A witness stated that a bag was abandoned next to her just before the explosion occurred. Prime Minister Raila Odinga has said that the blast has links to terrorism and it is being suspected that al-Shabaab may be behind the bombing as they have repeatedly threatened to stage revenge attacks after Kenya sent troops to Somalia. Since then, there have been a series of grenade and bomb blasts across Kenya in the past few months which has resulted in the deaths of several civilians. At the moment, the investigating team is exploring the possibility that the blast was caused by criminals using an improvised explosive device. Kenya Power, which is the country’s sole electricity distributor, has also ruled out any electrical malfunction as the cause of the blast.

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