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Prof. Charles C. Soludo Governor (Chairman)

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Dr. Shamsuddeen Usman Deputy Governor (Operations)

Mr. Ernest C. Ebi Deputy Governor (Corporate Services)

Mr. Tunde Lemo Deputy Governor (Financial Sector Surveillance)

Dr. Obadiah Mailafia Deputy Governor ()

•.'.': \!' ,, ' . . � ·• ;_;:. ;.�.. };} ,: .. Volume 30, No. 3 JUiy - :,epl. LUUt>

(""'_c_o_N_T _EN_T_s _PA_G_ ___E J

PAGE 1 OVERVIEW OF EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT IN FROM 1986 TO DATE MIKE I. OBADAN, Ph. D

PAGE 10 THE ACHIEVEMENT OF CONVERGENCE IN THE NIGERIA FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 0. 0. AKAN]!(MRS.)

PAGE 17 CHALLENGES OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITYIN ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT IIII NIGERIA CHARLESN. 0. MORD!

PAGE 26 THE CHALLENGES OF SUSTAINABILITYOF THE CURRENT EXCHANGE RATE REGIME IN NIGERIA H. T.SANNI

PAGE 38 OF EXCHANGE RATE MANAGEMENT AYODELEODUSOLA, Ph. D

PAGE45 EFFECTIVE RESERVES MANAGEMENT IN NIGERIA: ISSUES, CHALLENGES AND PROSPECTS ALH.AJI M. NDA

PAGE 52 EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN NIGERIA GREGNZEKWU

PAGE 64 RECENT REFORMS IN THE NIGERIAN BANKING INDUSTRY: ISSUES AND CHALLENGES U.KAMA ...... ,..,, ...... ,..... Economics OF EHCHAnliERATE MAnA&EMEnl By AYODELEODUSOLA, Ph. D National Economist Development Programme (undp) nun House, Plot 617/618 Central Business District, Abuja

role in the management of any I • Stimulation of non-oil economy not only in terms of exports; and I facilitating the achievement of I, • Promotion of efficient macroeconomic objectives at the allocation of foreign exchange domestic end but also in terms of its i resources through: reduction of importance on international trade I1 dependence on imports and oil and investments. The primary exp Or ts, e Iimi nation of objective of foreign exchange unfavourable capital flight and policy (FOREX) has therefore stimulation of inflows of capital, become the main motivation for the and reduction and possibly AYODELE ODUSOLA, Ph. D choice of any exchange rate I. INTRODUCTION elimination of exchange rate regime. misalignment and exchange rate 1 Exchange rate policy plays an premium. In recent times, achieving exchange rate important role in national economic The starting point of examining the convergence has therefore development management. If well economics of exchange rate become one of the intermediate managed, it could facilitate the management is therefore to have a objectives of central banks in many achievement of macroeconomic better understanding of the specific countries. objectives of rapid economic objectives of exchange rate. This growth, low rate of inflation, high can be grouped into two broad employment generation, buoyant categories: traditional and non� The main objective of this paper balance of payment condition, and traditional objectives. Traditionally, therefore is to examine the progressive income distribution. Of foreign exchange management in economics of exchange rate all economic policies, it is the most Nigeria is aimed at the following management. To address the suitable policy for ensuring internal th ree mutually exclusiv e main focus of this paper therefore, and external balances. objectives:• it is structured into five main parts. Conservation of available Following the introduction is In specific terms, most countries foreign exchange resources so as section two which examines the focus attention on exchange rate to check expenditure and undue conceptual issues in exchange policy for many reasons. Whatever depletion of external reserves; rate management. In the third section, types of exchange rate exchange rate regime adopted has • Ensuring adequacy of regimes are examined while some implications on the prices of reserves consistent with current section four contains the goods and services in any and future internatio nal significance of exchange rate economy. This is particularly so for commitment; and imported commodities and those management. Exchange rate • Preserving the value of ' produced within the economy management questions are external reserves through I whose intermediate inputs and raw reviewed in section five. Section appropriate portfolio diversification materials depend heavily on six draws relevant lessons and and optimal deployment into strong importation. As a tool of correcting concludes the paper. currencies. internal and external imbalances as II. CONCEPTUAL ISSUES well as an instrument of improving The non-traditional objectives the efficiencyof resource allocation, include: This section addresses key concepts that facilitate the governments in many developing • Reduction of excessive countries use exchange rate as the appreciation of the economics of demand for foreignexchange; exchange rate management. It linchpin of any stabilization policy. • serves as the frameworks for From all intent and purposes, Removal of distortions in the economy; contextualizing the focus of the exchange rate plays an important paper. 38 Whatis a Foreign Exchange? domestic-currency term (E,) is charged on imports and exports. #Generically, foreign exchange can defined as units of domestic (iii) Multilateral RER {MRER): be defined as foreign currency or currency per unit of foreign This is a weighted average of the any other financial instruments currency. From foreign-currency external real exchange rate index acceptable as a means of payment term (E,), it is the units of foreign with respect to using multiple trading or exchange for international exchange per unit of domestic partners. On the other hand, NMER transactions. Foreign exchange is currency. The domestic-currency is nominal multilateral exchange made up of convertible currencies measure is the reciprocal of the rate in domestic currency term and that are accepted for the settlement foreigncurrency term. NEER, stands for nominal effective of international transactions - trade exchange rate in domestic currency and other external obligations. Real Exchange Rate (RER): term betweenthe home country and Specifically, the International While nominal exchange rate the major trading partners. Monetary Fund (as cited in Odusola measures the relative price of two 2002) defines it as the monetary moneys, the real exchange rate Fundamental Equilibrium authorities' claims on foreigners in measures the relative price of two Exchange Rate (FEER}: As defined the form of bank deposits, treasury goods. by Williamson (1997), it is the real bills, short-term and long term Real Exchange rate can be defined effective exchange rate compatible government securities and other from both external and internal with simultaneous achievement of claims usable in the events of perspectives: internaland external balances in the balance of payments deficits, •!• External RER is the medium term. By internal balance including non-marketable claims nominal exchange rate adjusted for we mean the highest level of arising from inter central banks and price level differences between economic activity that is consistent inter-government arrangements, countries. 11 is the ratio of the with a desirably controlled level of without regard to whether the claim aggregate foreignprice level or cost inflation, based on the existing factor is denominated in the currency of level to the home country's endowments including technology. the debtor or creditor. aggregate price level or cost The concept of external balance measured in a common currency. refers to determining the level of The also •!• Internal RER: Measures current account deficit that is defines it as any currency other the relative prices of two broad consistent with development than the Nigerian currency and categories of goods tradable and objectives ensuring sustainable includes coins or notes which are, non-tradable goods: ratio of the medium term target for the current or have at any time been legal domestic price of tradable to non­ account. This also connotes tender in any territory outside tradable goods within a single improvement of balance of Nigeria: poster orders, money country. The main objective is to payments position and maintenance orders, bills of exchange, capture the internal relative price of a level of reserve consistent with promissory notes, drafts, letters of incentive in a particular economy macroeconomic stability. credit and travellers' cheques for producing or consuming payable or expressed in a non­ tradable as opposed to non­ What is an efficient foreign Nigerian currency. tradable goods. exchange market? (i) Bilateral RER {BRER): It This refers to a situation where the What are Foreign Exchange comprises the price of a prevailing exchange rates fully Rates? representative consumption or reflect available information. That is Exchange rates are the prices at production basket in the home the actual profit in any given period which currencies trade for each country with similar representative from any arbitrage or speculation other: spot and forward rates. It is price in a foreign country measured activity equals, on the average, the simply the value of a foreign in the same currency. The choice of equilibrium expected profits for the currency expressed in terms of this simple index RER is usually time period the actual exchange domestic or other currencies. This informed by the existence of a rate equals the equilibrium can further be classified into major trading partner, or an exchange rate. Because the current nominal and real exchange rates. association to such currency blocks exchange rate adjusts fully to all the They are often expressed in terms as the dollar, the franc, the yen, the information available in the previous of two currencies: domestic and DM or the euro zones. period and also adjusts foreign. Exchange rate can be (Ii) Effective Real Exchange instantaneously to any new expressed either in nominal or real Rate {ERER,LThe use of the term information, any positive or negative terms. "effective" in describing exchange profit opportunities are easily rate in the literature portends two eliminated. Nominal exchange rate, for different meanings. First, it instance, can be viewed from two connotes "weighted average". It is angles: domestic-currency terms synonymous to multilateral RER Ill. TYPES OF EXCHANGE and foreign-currency terms. (MRER). Second, it connotes RATE REGIMES Nominal exchange rate from the incorporation of all forms of taxes The literature is replete with many

39 forms of exchange rate regimes. systematic reserve growth thereby more fixed exchange rates for They are often grouped into the precipitating balance of payment current account transactions; and following: fixed, flexible and deficit. •!• one or more floating or multiple exchange rate regimes. market driven for capita l The salient features of each of Flexible Regimes: This otherwise transactions. these regimes are examined below. called adjustable Exchange Rates • Primary motivations for regime and can be grouped into adopting MERS are to: Fixed Regim es: Pe gged three, namely, • Insulate domestic prices ExchangeRates (i) Making domestic currency and economic activities from adjustable to selected indicators exchange rate fluctuations deriving For this regime to achieve the that are mostly economic from transitory shocks in the overall objectives of exchange rate fundamentals. financial market. management, it must fulfill the (ii) Adopting managed floating • Protect international followingconditions: system, which allows exchange reserves and avoid substantial • The monetary authorities rate movements to reflect devaluation in the face of severe have the discipline, honesty, and developments in variables such as balance of payment difficulties. capacity to allocate resources reserves and the payments This regime is, however, saddled efficiently in line with economic positions. with some problems: growth objective. (Iii) Independently floating • Because parallel exchange • The economy's capacity to system, which reflects the rate is often more depreciated than earn foreign exchange can easily dynamics of market forces. the official one, there is the support the fixed rate without The adoption of flexible exchange temptation of not adjusting the putting undue pressure on the rate tends to coincides with severe officialexchange rate when it needs balance of payment condition. economic turmoil. A variant of to be adjusted, allowing it to become • The economy has flexible exchange rate is the increasingly overvalued and the reasonably open capital account to crawling pegged regime. This economy decreases in provide necessary incentives for occurs when government allows competitiveness. the value of exchange rate to be accommodating repatriation of • It is difficult to prevent determined by market forces, but income without causing serious leakages from one market into the the adjustment to the appropriate stress to the BOP. other round tripping effects. This is rate is slow and smooth as opposed • The relevant authorities often the source of multiple system to quick, abrupt and disruptive. This have the capacity to effectively breakdowns. is particularly a good recipe to check smuggling and control the • It creates incentives for countries experiencing activities of parallel exchange cheating and hyperinflation. The difference can blur the line market operators. between legal and illegal activities. Fixed exchange regimes can take between the foreign and domestic several forrns. Some of these are inflation is used to calculate the annual rate of crawl. Over the past four decades, Nigeria highlighted below: has experimented with different (i) Domestic currency fixed to formsof exchange rate regimes. In a single foreigncurre ncy. Adjustabl e peg syst em: Governments having realised that the 1960s, fixed regime was (ii) Domestic currency fixed to experimented before shifting to a basket of currencies, forinstance, fixed exchange rate is very rigid to manage while floating regime is pegged arrangement in the 1970s main trading partners or up till June 1986 when the structural standardized currency composites equally disadvantageous have charted a middle course of action adjustment programme (SAP) was such as the European Currency introduced. Since this time, Union (ECU) or the Special between the two regimes. This regime allows a currency to be however, different forms of floating Drawing Right (SDR). approaches (freely, dirty and (iii) Domestic currency fixed to fixed, but because the domestic country and its trading partners stinking) have been experimented within pre-established margins. with.During this period there was no (iv) Fixed but adjustable peg. have different inflation rates, periodic officialparities are allowed commitment to defending the parity Most countries moved out of of naira to any currency. pegged exchange rate regime in order to bring exchange rate to its appropriate level (Dernburg, 1989). because they were no longer able Generally, the primary objectives of to meet their convertibility Multiple ExchangeRate Regimes adopting fixed or pegged regimes commitment, i.e., when they have are to ensure a low rate of inflation in run out of reserves.As a matter of (MERS) A multiple exchange rate regime is the economy, reduce transaction fact, countries tend to adopt fixed costs of international trade, promote exchange rate regime when they any exchange rate regime that applies two or more exchange rates exchange rate stability and reduce are relatively buoyant. However, its domestic economy's exposure to main drawback is its inability to to the same currency: •!• a system involving one or external shocks.. To achieve this, provide for adequate and exchange rate regulation was

40 promoted and enforced. The challenge. The main challenge contingent on institutional investors' experience had however shown however is that exchange rate (such as pension fund and insurance that exchange rate control volatility and instability is not companies) eagerness to diversify engendered substantial distortions congenial to promoting domestic their portfolios by moving some of in the economy. Apart from investment, foreign inflows of their funds to the affected country. promoting rent seeking activities capital and transformation of the Traditionally, borrowers from that culminated into sharp prices in real sector of the economy. countries maintain ing good the foreign exchange market, it exchange rate management would changed the consumption pattern IV. EC ONOMIC findthat they could raise funds more of Nigerians with predilection for SIGNIFICANCE OF EXCHANGE easily and at cheaper rates in the foreign goods. Consequently, this RATEAND MANAGEMENT deeper, more competitive financial led to massive importation of markets where their currency is tied. finished goods with its impact on The economic significance of Experience has however shown that current account deficits, de­ exchange rate and its management this is dependent on pursuit of sound industrialization of the economy is anchored on the goals of macroeconomic policies and the through closure of local industries exchange rate policy in any ability to strengthen the domestic as a result of weak demand for economy. In specific terms, the financialsystems. locally produced goods. In addition critical ones are as highlighted to this, naira became unduly below. •!• It is a to ol of overvalued particularly during the macroeconomic management As oil boom era and there was massive •!• Specialprice for resource a majo r to ol of economic exchange rate misalignment. In the allocation: As a relative price, it stabilization, exchange rate policy process of defending the exchange plays an important role by and its management affect an rate parity, the monetary authorities performing resource allocation economy through three main lose its discretion function within an economy. It also channels: and to large extent the foreign serves as a major direct link with reserves were depleted. other sectors of the economy, as • Expenditure-reducing well as link the general price level effects: As a way of reducing deficit The need to avoid the foregoing within the economy with prices in from current account balance, limitations coupled with the need to the rest of the world. exchange rate is used to discourage promote foreign direct investment in •!• Lower commercial and imports especially those goods that the country, reduce heavy currency transaction costs: can be sourced locally. dependence on imported goods, Effectivemanagement of exchange and diversify the economy, a rate particularly among countries of • Expenditure-switching floating exchange regime was strong trade links offe rs effects: Exchange rate is often used adopted at the outset of SAP in opportunities for seamless trade to discourage spending on goods 1986. During this regime, monetary through lower commercial and and services that serve as drains on policy discretion in maintaining currency transaction costs. If a the balance of payment position effectiveexchange rate system was particular currency regime leads to while at the same time encourage achieved, achievement of an economic upswing in countries those that add to foreign exchange appreciable monetary policy where the curre ncy is earnings. Specifically, it facilitates independence, building up of predominantly used, it could boost switch in domestic demand from external reserves, among others. that region's output and demand for tradable to non-tradable, i.e., goods The major shortcomings of the imports. In turn, this could benefit that are produced and consumed at adoption of this regime in Nigeria the economies of countries' trading home. In Many countries, it is used include persistent exchange rate partners. as a tool of industrialization by volatility, high inflation and high •!• Facilitate access to encouraging value added exports. transaction costs on international investors and financial market: trade. Predictable and credible exchange • Domestic currency price of rate management also offers imported intermediate inputs: As a It is importantto note that in spite of distinct advantages of "more major source of imported inflation, the experimentation with the commercial outlets". This creates exchange rate management brings various exchange rate regimes, the one of the conditions to attract more stability into domestic prices which productivity of the domestic investors and access to financial are mostly import dependent due to economy is yet to be achieved. The market of the hard currency origins. heavy reliance on imported raw real sector of the economy remains In fact, there is a close linkage materials and intermediate inputs. In un-rejuvenated, the diversification between the implementation of this regard, it reduces the of the economy away from the oil 'sound and convergent economic fluctuations associated to variability sector remains highly elusive and and financial policies' and access to of exchange rates. achievin g interna tional foreign investors and financial competitiveness remains daunting markets. Th is is however •!• Other specific importance

41 of exchange rate include: refused to abandon the prevailing between competitiveness and It is very useful for determining the exchange rate regime? These inflation. A fixed exchange rate status of any currency; whether it is constitute the exchange rate issues provides a nominal anchor that overvalued or undervalued. or questions. Answers to these can help to build the credibility Besides, it also serves as an questions, to a large extent, necessary to fight inflation. But at economic management signal provide explanation to the the same time a pegged rate where continuous appreciation economics of exchange rate results in real appreciation that suggests devaluation of the management in any economy. can jeopardize the viability of nominal exchange rate while external accounts. depreciation provides signals for Choice of Exchange Rate: The potential competitiveness. choice of the exchange rate regime Motivation for targeting a It is a veritable tool of effecting is often polarized between the particular exchange rate level: external adjustment by ensuring obvious extreme alternatives of There are differentmotivations for competitiveness and avoiding real fixed and pure floating. There are targeting a particular level of exchange rate misalignments. The several intermediate categories exchange rate. Countries often strength of a country's competitive between these two extremes like target a more depreciated position in international trade is fixed with discrete realignments, exchange rate in order to increase determined by its real exchange crawling pegs, bands, and dirty competitiveness or to solve a rate. This occur when the domestic floating. By choosing one balance of payments crisis. It is currency depreciates or foreign exchang e rate re gime , often used as a tool of economic inflation rises or domestic inflation simultaneously other underlying stabiliza tion via demand falls or a combination of two or more objectives are also being selected. contraction and expenditure of the above scenarios. As earlier In practice, the most common trade switching frameworks. Exchange mentioned, it is equally a tool of off is between volatility and rate depreciation, to a large extent resource allocation. Through this, it flexibility. In countries with is primarily based on the need to influences the pattern of domestic moderate inflation, a fixed address deviations from production and expenditure. It exchange rate is assumed to productivity adjusted purchasing switches domestic consumption reduce volatility in the real power parity (PPP). It is usually from imported goods to those exchange rate (RER) to the extent aimed at enhancing domestic produced at home and encourages that prices are one order of productivity towards value added local producers to produce goods magnitude less volatile. This exports, i.e., to increase the scope for exports that are relatively however, limits government's of tradable in the economy. cheaper than what it used to be prior ability to counteract non­ to deregulated exchange rate anticipated real shocks. Exchange rate policy has been at regimes. the service of multiple and often­ A flexible exchange rate, on the contradictory purposes, namely: V THE EXCHANGE RATE other hand, allows countries to •!• sometimes as a nominal MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS implement discretionary policy to anchor to fight inflation In examining the economics of react to real shocks but it is usually •!• sometim es as an exchange rate management in any associated with a higher degree of instrument to promote country, some key issues need to RER volatility. However, in international competitiveness be understood: the choice of the countries that have experienced •!• as an important relative exchange rate regime and its level. high and chronic inflation, the price within a set of policies aimed Since the adoption of the Structural relationship between real and to industrialize an economy Adjustment Programme (SAP) in nominal exchange rate volatility Nigeria in 1986, the choice of apparently breaks up: an increase •!• an instrument for creating exchange rate regimes has been in the volatility in the nominal an outward -oriented economy. questioned by many analysts exchange rate does not Experiences from many countries without any recourse to the necessarily imply an increase in have however shown that economics of it. As a starting point, volatility of the real exchange rate. exchange rate targeting is often therefore, it is important to ask why done at the expense of higher the government chooses some Hence, the volatility-flexibility trade inflation. exchange rate regimes over off is no longer valid to explain the others? Second, what is the selection of a particular exchange VI ISSUES, LESSONS AND motivation behind the targeting of rate regime and other factors CONCLUSION certain exchange rate levels? To needs to be taken into account to complement the foregoin g explain such choice. Furthermore, One of the critical issues in the questions, the third question to the extent that inflation does not management of foreignexchange becomes imperative: why in spite of converge to international levels, is to know the main determinants serious unfavourable and the choice is not primarily between of exchange rate management in undesirable effects, governments volatility and discretion, but the country. Many factors come to mind on this issue. In addition to 42 pressure from international higher inflation. Consequently, The sustainability of the current financial institutions that oftenexert most countries often immersed in exchange rate stability and the pressure on developing countries to inflation-devaluation/depreciation convergence of the official and adopt sound macroeconomic spiral. parallel markets need to be taken policies, external shocks also very seriously. What seems to be a impose some serious constraints The main objectives of foreign stable issue now may turn out to be on monetary authorities. Critical exchange management can only something else when the oil boom among these external shocks are be achieved if exchange rate is era is over. As such there is need for deteriorating terms of trade and stable; devoid of undue volatility the main goal of exchange rate change in international interest and oscillations. The term stability policy to be synchronised with other rates. does not connote static condition macroeconomic objectives of but a situation that permits government. For the current Another factoris to maintain a good variability in response to changes in exchange rate policy to be orientation with the overall policy the market fundamentals, e.g., sustainable there is need for framework. This is about ensuring changes in relative prices, proactive programme of economic an internal consistency on international terms of trade and diversification. The economy should development policy management. other factors that impinge on the be moved away from depending Other factors include non-policy price competitiveness of the solely on oil oriented-foreign induced openness, measure of domestic market agents and earnings to non-oil. The current productivity, and long term capital products. It also connotes diversification index with an annual flows. An obvious issue in the variability within a range that does average of about 1.3 is abysmally emerging literature is that targeting not distort the planning process of low when compared with countries a more depreciated exchange rate market agents. Exchange rate such as Algeria (5.5), Egypt {about to increase competitiveness or to volatility can lead to de­ 20 in recent times), Morocco (36) solve a balance of payments crisis capitalisation of the economy and and (28). is usually done at the expense of possibly de-industrialisation.

43 REFERENCES Adubi, A.A. and Foluso Okunmadewa (1999). Price, Exchange Rate Volatility and Nigeria's Agricultural Trade Flows: A dynamicAnalysis.AfricanEconomic Research Consortium No 87, 1999, Nairobi.

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Akinlo, A. E. and Odusola, A. F. (2003). "Assessing the Impact of Nigeria's Naira Depreciation on Output and Inflation", Applied Economics Volume 35, p. 691 703, (UK).

Akinlo, E. A. and Odusola, A.F., 1999. An Alternative Approach to Assessing the Impacts of Exchange Rate Depreciation on Output and Inflation, sponsored byAfrican Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi, Kenya.

Banco lnteramericano de Desarrollo (BID) (1999). The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policies in Latin America and the . Red de Centros de lnvestigaci6n de la Oficina del Economista Jefe Banco lnteramericano de Desarrollo (BID) Documento de Trabajo R-365

Dernburg, T.F. (1989). Global Macroeconomics, New York: Harper & Row.

Odubogun, K. (1995). Institutional Reforms and the Management of Exchange Rate Policy in Nigeria. African Economic Research Consortium No 36, 1995, Nairobi.

Odusola, A.F (2002). Conceptual Issues in Exchange Rate Measurement. Paper Delivered at the 4• Annual Seminar for the Finance Correspondents and Business Editors, organized by the Central Bank of Nigeria at Confluence Beach Hotel, Lokoja, Kogi State, November 2002.

Odusola, A.F ( 2003a). Exchange Rate Policy Analysis and Management: Conceptual and Theoretical Issues. Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Management Organized for the Staff of Central Bank of Nigeria, August 2003 CBN Training School, Satellite Town, Lagos.

Odusola, A.F. (2003b). Exchange Rate Policy in Nigeria. Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Analysis Management Organized for the Staffof Central Bank of Nigeria, August 2003. CBN Training School, Satellite To wn, Lagos.

Odusola, A.F. and A.E. Akinlo, "Output, Inflation and Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria", The Developing Economies, XXXIX, 2001.

Ogun, 0. (1999). Real Exchange Rate Movements and Export Growth: Nigeria 1960-90, African Economic Research Consortium No 82, Nairobi.

Sanusi, J.O. (2004). Exchange Rate Mechanisms: The Current Nigerian Experience. Paper Presented at the Luncheon of the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce, 24 February.

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