FINAL REPORT AFOSR FA9550-12-1-0096 Al-Qaeda and Islamist Militant Influences on Tribal Dynamics Principle Investigator and Point of Contact David Jacobson, Founding Directopr Professor of Sociology Global Initiative on Civil Society and Conflict University of South Florida Tampa, FL (813) 391-7519
[email protected] December 14, 2015 Period of performance: September 14, 2012 – September 14, 2015 Program Officer Benjamin A Knott, PhD Air Force Office of Scientific Research Program Officer - Trust and Influence 875 N. Randolph St. Arlington, VA 22203 Phone: 703-696-1142 Email:
[email protected] The report is 41 pages in length (excluding cover page); please note the Appendix is numbered independently. The report that follows gives an overview of the project, listing of technical advances, outreach and media, sample of findings, pedagogy, publications and a detailed appendix of compiled and collected data sources; and of algorithms related to the Tribalism Index and the HDTI, which were developed by the P.I. for the project (and of important significance for future work. Introduction: Tribal areas, from Afghanistan through to the Sahel are core areas of Islamist militancy. Tribes have played a central role in either supporting or opposing militant entities in their midst. Evidence suggests militant Islamist groups have actively sought out tribal regions for their bases of activity. Prior quantitative research, by the P.I. and by others, has shown that tribalism is an important incubator of Islamist militancy, and the intersection of tribes and Islamist groups is a major factor in the export of religiously motivated violence. (This is a significant factor even into third generation of immigrant communities in Western countries.) Yet this is not a linear relationship, and not all tribes or ethnic groups collaborate with Islamist militants--or the nature of collaboration can be different, from ideological to pragmatic.