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Intensification of Relations with the United States As a Means to Overcome Risks?, „Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej” 18(2020), Z

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Intensification of Relations with the United States As a Means to Overcome Risks?, „Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej” 18(2020), Z K. Gawron-Tabor, Challenges and threats to the security of the Visegrad Group countries: intensification of relations with the United States as a means to overcome risks?, „Rocznik Instytutu Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej” 18(2020), z. 1, s. 99-115, DOI: https://doi.org/10.36874/RIESW.2020.1.6. Karolina Gawron-Tabor* Challenges and threats to the security of the Visegrad Group countries: intensification of relations with the United States as a means to overcome risks? Wyzwania i zagrożenia dla bezpieczeństwa państw wyszehradzkich. Intensyfikacja relacji ze Stanami Zjednoczonymi sposobem na ich przezwyciężenie? Abstract: Since January 2017, when Donald Trump assumed the post of US president, there has been a visible intensification of relations between the United States and the countries from Central Europe, aimed at, for example, counteracting challenges and threats faced by the allies. The objective of the article is to analyze challenges and threats to Central Europe, identified by Donald Trump. He points to the necessity: 1) to strengthen NATO and increase the engagement of European allies; 2) to ensure energy security; 3) to coun- teract threats from two superpowers – Russia and China. The text addresses how important the challenges and threats identified by the American presi- dent have been for individual Visegrad states. The article begins by present- ing characteristic features of the foreign policy conducted by Donald Trump’s administration which influence relations between the US and the Visegrad countries. It then analyzes the relations between the US and individual states regarding the previously presented challenges and threats. The article’s thesis is that Poland is the only Visegrad country to perceive all three challenges and threats in a way similar to the US, and thus cooperates with the US in this matter. The work is a comparative analysis based on content and narrative analysis. Keywords: Donald Trump, the Visegrad Group countries, security policy, United States, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, energy security, defense, China, Russia Streszczenie: Od objęcia przez Donalda Trumpa urzędu prezydenta Stanów Zjednoczonych w styczniu 2017 r. nastąpiła wyraźna intensyfikacja relacji z państwami Europy Środkowej, mająca na celu m.in. przeciwdziałanie prob- * Karolina Gawron-Tabor, PhD, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland, ORCID ID: https:// orcid.org/0000-0002-8535-913X, e-mail: [email protected]. 100 Karolina Gawron-Tabor lemom i niebezpieczeństwom stojącym przed sojusznikami. Celem artykułu jest analiza wyzwań i zagrożeń, jakie Donald Trump kreśli przed Europą Środ- kową. Wskazuje na: 1) konieczność wzmocnienia NATO i większego zaanga- żowania europejskich sojuszników; 2) zapewnienie bezpieczeństwa energe- tycznego; 3) przeciwdziałanie zagrożeniom płynącym ze strony dwóch potęg: Rosji i Chin. Dokonana zostanie próba odpowiedzi na pytanie, w jakim stopniu wyzwania i zagrożenia zidentyfikowane przez amerykańskiego prezydenta są istotne dla poszczególnych państw Grupy Wyszehradzkiej. Na wstępie ar- tykułu wskazane zostaną charakterystyczne dla polityki zagranicznej Donalda Trumpa elementy, które mają wpływ na relacje z państwami V4. Następnie przeanalizowane zostaną stosunki USA z poszczególnymi państwami pod kątem wyżej wskazanych wyzwań i zagrożeń. W artykule postawiono tezę, że Polska – jako jedyna z Grupy Wyszehradzkiej – podobnie jak USA postrze- ga wszystkie trzy wyzwania i zagrożenia, a w konsekwencji współpracuje ze Stanami Zjednoczonymi w tej materii. Praca stanowi analizę porównawczą powstałą w oparciu o analizę treści i narracji. Słowa kluczowe: Donald Trump, państwa Grupy Wyszehradzkiej, polityka bezpieczeństwa, Stany Zjednoczone, Polska, Czechy, Słowacja, Węgry, bezpie- czeństwo energetyczne, obronność, Chiny, Rosja Introduction Since Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary (the Viseg- rád Group, or V4 countries) gained full independence after 1989, alli- ance with Washington has been an inherent element of their security and defense strategy. Through the subsequent American presidencies, the relations between the V4 countries and the US have been harmo- nious, although not without numerous challenges and limitations. In the 2000s Warsaw, Prague, Budapest, and Bratislava became Wash- ington’s partners in the global combat against terrorism, and active members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). During the tenure of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House (2009– 2016), the states of Central Europe were no longer central to Ameri- can foreign policy, although they continued to perceive Washington as a pillar of their security policy and expected greater engagement and support from the US, particularly regarding Russia’s actions towards Crimea and Ukraine after 2013. Assuming the post of US president by Republicans’ candidate Donald Trump on 20 January 2017, raised hopes among the V4 countries for a “new opening” in their relations with the United States and the region to be noticed again. However, the new presidency was also approached with specific but justified fears. The objective of this article is to analyze challenges and threats to Central Europe identified by Donald Trump’s administration in the National Security Strategy of the United States of America published Yearbook of the Institute of East-Central Europe • Volume 18 (2020) • Issue 1 Challenges and threats to the security of the Visegrad Group countries... 101 in December 2017.1 The White House points to the necessity: 1) to strengthen NATO and to increase the engagement of European allies; 2) to ensure energy security; 3) to counteract threats from two super- powers – Russia and China. The text attempts to answer how impor- tant the challenges and threats identified by the American president’s administration are for V4 states. In the beginning, the article presents elements that are characteristic of the foreign policy conducted by Donald Trump’s administration which influence relations between the US and the V4 countries. Then it analyzes the relations between the US and individual states with regard to the previously presented challenges and threats during Trump’s first three years in office. The article formulates the thesis that Poland is the only V4 country to per- ceive all three challenges and threats in a way similar to the US, and thus cooperates with the US in this matter. Characteristic features of the foreign policy conducted 1. by Donald Trump’s administration. Challenges and threats for Central European states identified by the US presidential administration Already during his election campaign, Donald Trump promised to implement the “America First” doctrine which prioritizes and pro- motes American interests in all dimensions – political, military, and economic – over the interests of other states and international actors. The doctrine was published in December 2017 in the National Secu- rity Strategy of the United States of America. One of its key elements defining the approach of Trump’s administration to foreign policy is realism “based on the assumption that peace, security and prosperity depend on strong and sovereign nations.”2 In a realistic manner, Trump prefers a bilateral approach in international relations and cooperation wherever possible, based on bilateral contacts, and not through mul- tilateral agreements and commitments. US support for certain multi- lateral projects, e.g., the Three Seas Initiative (TSI), which focuses on 1 The White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf [2020- 02-05]. 2 Ibidem, p. 1. Yearbook of the Institute of East-Central Europe • Volume 18 (2020) • Issue 1 102 Karolina Gawron-Tabor the development of gas infrastructure in Central Europe and signifi- cantly facilitates the sales of American LNG, primarily aims to pur- sue American interests.3 The greatest threat to Central European states identified by Don- ald Trump’s administration in the US Security Strategy is Russia’s aspirations to subordinate its former peripheries. The activities that are to protect V4 countries in this matter include the necessity to strengthen NATO’s Eastern flank, allocate 2% of their GDP to de- fense as the allies had committed, as well as to modernize the ar- mies and defense systems of individual states through purchasing American military equipment. With regard to Russia’s activity in Ukraine and the major concern voiced by Central and Eastern Eu- ropean states, Trump’s administration declared NATO readiness to develop the enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) and the tailored For- ward Presence (tFP). Moreover, the presence of American troops in Eastern Europe under the NATO mandate increased, so did the transfer of additional resources for US military operations in the re- gion as well as military assistance to the allies. In cooperation with the Congress, the administration extended sanctions against Rus- sia in response to the state’s various aggressive activities (Ukraine, Syria) in the international arena as well as its repressive internal policy. What is more, Washington is putting pressure on its Euro- pean allies to uphold EU sanctions against Russia and oppose the construction of Nord Stream 2 (NS2).4 An important challenge and threat to V4 countries identified by Trump’s administration is their excessive dependence on Russian en- ergy resources. Trump talks about the need to diversify energy re- sources and purchase
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