Savills World Research UK Development London Development Building opportunities East of City Autumn 2014 SUMMARY New developments in eastern boroughs are boosting housing supply in the London market ■ Almost a third of all new homes ■ Price growth in Hackney, Tower ■ Transport improvements, such in London are set to emerge in Hamlets, Lewisham, Greenwich and as the East London Line, have the boroughs of Newham, Tower Newham has outperformed the more been key in driving demand in Hamlets, Greenwich and Barking and expensive boroughs of Westminster previously overlooked parts of Dagenham over the next five years, and Kensington and Chelsea over the London. The opening of Crossrail according to Savills analysis of the past year. p.2/3 from 2018 will bring forward further pipeline. p.2/3 opportunities. p.6/7 ■ Market strength has pushed ■ Many will be in high rises. Within the average price of a new build ■ We forecast that price growth in E14, which includes Canary Wharf and home in Canary Wharf to £700- London will slow as a result of growing Poplar, 62% of homes with planning £1,200 psf which takes many new affordability pressures, potential permission will be on schemes which schemes into prime territory. tightening in the mortgage market and include towers over 20 storeys. p.2/3 a future rise in interest rates. p.8 However, as more developers ■ Across the wider East of City area compete at the top of the market, (Tower Hamlets, Hackney, Greenwich, we would question whether some “Almost a third of all new Newham, Lewisham) a total of 43 sites new schemes are sufficiently with planning permission for a total of differentiated to justify their homes are set to emerge in 55,325 homes, include towers over premiums. p.4/5 the East of City” Susan Emmett 20 storeys. p.2/3 savills.co.uk/research 01 London Development | Building opportunities East of City Market dynamics LONDON DEVELOPMENT SPREADS TO THE EAST As demand for housing grows, ondon’s centre of four boroughs East of the City. gravity is shifting to This includes many major schemes four boroughs east of the City the east, with almost such as the recently permitted of London are set to deliver one a third of all future Wood Wharf (Canary Wharf Group) homes in the capital with 4,500 homes. Add to this in three new homes in the capital Lset to emerge in the boroughs Royal Wharf (Oxley Holdings) and of Newham, Tower Hamlets, Greenwich Peninsula over the river, Greenwich and Barking and and that’s a total of 17,885 homes Dagenham over the next five years. with planning permission. Based on our analysis of planning Transport improvements have been consents as well as market knowledge, key in driving demand in previously Savills Research estimate that over overlooked parts of London. There 130,000 new homes should be built is a discernible pattern of emerging in London between 2014 and 2018, development hugging the East 29% of which will be based in just London Line portion of the new London Overground. The extension of the network to Barking Riverside as well as the completion of Crossrail will provide a further boost. (see towerIng ACHIevement p.6/7 for more detail). Tall buildings are springing up across the east Prices rises Demand for homes in eastern Development is spreading not only outwards buildings are springing up across the east, postcodes is changing the shape but also upwards. Within E14, which Canary Wharf has the highest concentration of the London property market. includes Canary Wharf and Poplar, 62% of towers, particularly in the most prime While central boroughs such as of homes with planning permission (just locations close to the core Canary Wharf Westminster and Kensington and under 4,000 flats) will be on schemes which estate. There is fierce competition to be Chelsea remain the most expensive, include towers over 20 storeys according the best in class and to top the quality and the areas which have experienced the to Molior. Landmark North, a 75 storey specification of Pan Peninsula (completed biggest rise in value most recently are skyscraper with permission for 822 homes 2009) with its private cinema, 50th floor no longer at the core. Over the past on Westferry Road, is among the tallest. cocktail bar and grand foyer. year, the boroughs of Hackney, Tower Hamlets, Lewisham, Greenwich and Across the wider East of city area (Tower However, as more developers seek to Newham, have seen the biggest rises Hamlets, Hackney, Greenwich, Newham, shift their product from mainstream markets in house prices as buyers look further Lewisham) a total of 43 sites with planning (sub £1,000psf) to prime, we would question out for better value. permission for a total of 55,325 homes, whether some are sufficiently differentiated These boroughs have also include towers over 20 storeys. While tall to justify their premiums. recorded a dramatic increase in the number of transactions. The number of homes swapping hands in Tower Hamlets is now double its pre-peak Value of new build properties in eastern postcodes is reaching new highs 02 Autumn 2014 “The relatively eastern promIse affordable prices House price growth: since June 2005 Price growth: since July 2005 ■ Over 100% ■ 75% to 100% ■ 50% to 75% ■ 25% to 50% ■ Up to 25% of East London have been a draw to HACKNEY NEWHAM young professionals” 102% 19% Nick Gregori average while deals in Newham have TOWER increased by almost 50% over the last LEWISHAM GREENWICH 12 months. HAMLETS A combination of these market 55% 29% 57% trends and the higher specification of developments being delivered, means the value of new build Price growth: last 12 months properties in eastern postcodes is Price growth: Annual ■ Over 25% ■ 20% to 25% ■ 15% to 20% ■ 10% to 15% ■ Up to 10% reaching new highs. Savills figures show that a new HACKNEY NEWHAM apartment in Canary Wharf can now command prices of between £700 and 22% 13% £1,200 psf. Values for new build in Stratford now lie between £550 and £750 psf while in Canning Town/Royal Docks prices are only slightly less at £500 to £700 psf. TOWER LEWISHAM GREENWICH HAMLETS Rentysomethings 19% 13% 18% The relatively affordable prices of East London has been a draw to young professionals as well as those working Transactions vs. pre-peak average in the media industry. Our analysis of Transaction levels: year to March 2014 vs. 2002-07 ave ■ Over 100% ■ 90% to 100% ■ 80% to 90% the Census shows boroughs to the ■ 70% to 80% ■ Up to 70% east have shown the greatest increase in the number of people working in HACKNEY NEWHAM culture, media and sports between 96% 56% 2001 and 2011. Hackney tops the list but more affordable boroughs further east have also seen large increases. This trend is reflected in the growing number of ‘rentysomethings’ TOWER LEWISHAM GREENWICH in the area and represents a good HAMLETS opportunity for investors. The most 84% 75% notable example is East Village, 100% the country’s largest professionally managed Private Rented Sector Scheme. It comprises of 1,439 rental Transactions increase: last 12 months homes with asking rents ranging from Transaction levels: year to March 2014 ■ Over 45% ■ 35% to 45% ■ 25% to 35% ■ 15% to 25% ■ Up to 15% £380 for a one bed to £615 per week for a three bed. ■ HACKNEY NEWHAM 11% 48% Transport improvements TOWER LEWISHAM GREENWICH have been key in driving HAMLETS 35% demand in previously 40% 29% overlooked areas Source: Land Registry, May 2014 savills.co.uk/research 03 London Development | Building opportunities East of City Case studies MAPPING OUT FOUR NEW NEIGHBOURHOODS The development pipeline East of City is active. We take a closer look at the key emerging residential areas that are changing the shape of London 1. Stratford 2. CANNING TOWN / Royal DOCKS 3. Canary WHARF Average price of new build home Average price of new build home Average price of new build home £550-750 psf £500-700 psf £700-1,200 psf Development here is centred around This area at the western end of the This major business district is the Olympic Park and Westfield Thames Gateway is undergoing a increasingly becoming a prime residential shopping centre. In total this area has £3.7 billion regeneration project which location. Beneath the shiny towers, planning permission for 6,500 new includes a revitalised town centre. Canary Wharf is also a place to shop, homes including 2,800 in East Village, eat and be entertained. The opening of the former athletes village. Though the area is already well the Crossrail station towards the end of connected (DLR, Jubilee line), the 2018 will connect the area to Bond Street Major transport improvements are opening of new Crossrail station at in 13 minutes. now in place, including extensions to Custom House late 2018 will boost the DLR and Jubilee line, plus an HS1 capacity. Proposals for upgrades Pan Peninsula, among the earlier top end station. This will be further enhanced by to London City airport would allow residential towers, being the first the arrival of Crossrail late spring 2019. increased passenger numbers. to achieve £1,000 psf. The recently approved 4.7 million sq ft Other large emerging developments (35 acres) Asian Business Port (ABP) include 4,500 homes at Wood Wharf and at Royal Albert Docks will create a 850 homes at Asda Crossharbour. trading hub with Asia, generate local employment and act as a catalyst for further development. Other developments include: ■ £2.5 billion mixed-use scheme at Silvertown Quays, with permission for 3,000 homes ■ 3,400 homes plus office, new school and retail space at Royal Wharf ■ Over 1,600 homes plus 200,000 sq ft of offices at the £700m City Island scheme adjacent to Canning Town station Source: Savills Research 04 Autumn 2014 4.