JUNE 2020
MOVING TO ZERO
ACCELERATING THE TRANSITION TO ZERO-EMISSIONS TRANSPORT MOVING TO Z E R O PETRA STOCK MICHAEL LI SIMON GRAHAM RACHEL LYNSKEY AUTHORS | MOVING TO ZERO
ABOUT CLIMATEWORKS ACKNOWLEDGMENT OF SUPPORT AUSTRALIA ClimateWorks Australia thanks the experts and key ClimateWorks Australia bridges the gap between stakeholders who have provided input to and review research and action to achieve the system-level of this report. We also acknowledge the contribution transitions required to reach net zero emissions of Robert Anderson whose background desktop across Australia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific. research underpins this report. We act as trusted advisers, specialising in the development and implementation of zero-emissions pathways. Co-founded by The Myer Foundation and Monash University in 2009, ClimateWorks is a non-profit working within the Monash Sustainable Development Institute.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 3 JUNE 2020 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
Executive summary
MOVING TO ZERO
Transport is the fastest growing and third largest source of emissions in Australia, behind electricity
Z E R O and stationary energy sectors. Australia’s road vehicle fleet is one of the most energy- and emissions-intensive in the world; the nation’s per capita aviation emissions are the world’s highest. An opportunity exists for Australia to turn these trends around and become a global leader in zero-emissions transport.
The strategies to transform Australia’s transport networks are known, with many ready to be implemented this decade. Widespread, rapid adoption of well-established solutions, along with mature and demonstrated technologies, can achieve much of what is needed this decade. Substantial investment in research, development and commercialisation can close the gap to zero emissions across the transport sector by 2050.
This report is the first comprehensive guide to how Australia can transition to zero-emissions transport. It explains where the transport sector is at today, and where the whole transport system needs to get to in order to support emissions reductions and keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. It distills an analysis of over 300 reports, research papers, news articles and policy documents, collated by ClimateWorks Australia over nine months, into twelve recommendations for the transport sector to move towards zero emissions. These recommendations will be familiar to the transport sector, with the review affirming that known and established opportunities can shift Australia towards zero-emissions transport. MOVING TO TO MOVING
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The recommendations cover both rapid implementation of established opportunities and actions to prepare Australia for rollout of emerging opportunities:
+ Across road, rail, maritime and aviation transport modes + For both passenger and freight transport + Covering technology, policy, standards and planning.
The transport sector is a complex system, covering multiple sectors, and servicing diverse needs across Australia’s entire economy. Its stakeholders range from government decision-makers all the way through to individual users. By bringing together opportunities for a zero-emissions transport sector in the one place, this report highlights both the commonalities and idiosyncrasies of the passenger, freight, road, rail, aviation and shipping sub- sectors. ClimateWorks recommends government, business and research institutions come together to advance policy, research and actions listed below. Many of these recommendations are already being implemented and merely require greater focus and investment. Some, however, represent innovations in Australia and thus require relevant stakeholders to establish new work programs. By collaborating to advance these twelve recommendations, the sector can set Australia on the path to a zero-emissions transport future.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 5 JUNE 2020 | EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
RECOMMENDATIONS
ALIGN STRATEGIES, PLANNING SHIFT TRANSPORT NETWORKS AND FRAMEWORKS WITH TO SUPPORT MORE EFFICIENT AND ZERO-EMISSIONS TRANSPORT SHARED MOBILITY MODE CHOICES, NETWORKS THROUGH INFRASTRUCTURE, SERVICES AND PRICING MECHANISMS + Develop a shared vision of a desired zero- emissions transport system to support planning + Shift private vehicle trips to public, active and and delivery of transport infrastructure and shared transport options, and shift freight from services. This could include the development road to rail through improved service provision, of future scenarios and the facilitation of subsidies, funding options and other measures. collaborative cross-sector forums. A coordinated A more explicit focus on mode shift in planning vision for future zero-emissions transport systems and delivery of transport infrastructure and would help ensure a smooth and timely transition services would support more efficient, zero- for the sector. emissions movement of people and goods. + Align government and business transport + Coordination both between and within freight strategies to zero emissions before 2050 for both stakeholders to reduce emissions. This could direct transport operations and broader transport include coordination between passenger and systems. This would include passenger transport freight operators to optimise use of train lines, operators (such as public transport operators or across modes for intermodal hubs such as and airlines) and freight businesses. Aligning ports to shift to more efficient trips. with zero emissions at the strategic level would support downstream implementation and actions in line with broader net zero and sustainable IMPROVE VEHICLES TO RUN development objectives. AT ZERO EMISSIONS + Prioritise net zero emissions in strategic and statutory planning processes for cities, + Review financial incentives and pricing settlements, transport systems, infrastructure, mechanisms, such as subsidies and road use and service provision. This could include pricing, to support uptake of zero-emissions minimum electric vehicle charging station passenger and freight vehicles. requirements in statutory planning for new + Continue development and implementation building developments. Incorporating net zero of vehicle emissions standards in line with into specific planning mechanisms provides international best practice, to support uptake of a regulatory driver and supporting tools to zero-emissions passenger and freight vehicles. implement emissions reduction solutions. + Build on and develop zero-emissions fleet + Assess and manage emissions impacts of strategies for government and corporate emerging and disruptive transport technologies vehicle fleets, including electric cars and public by developing guidance, policies and regulations transport. Leadership by government and for federal, state and local government. This would corporate fleet managers in transitioning to help prepare the transport sector for emerging electric fleets powered with renewable energy, and disruptive technologies such as autonomous complemented by investment in charging vehicles while ensuring new technologies align infrastructure, would enable broader takeup of with zero-emissions strategies. electric vehicles by the community.
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+ Support research, commercialisation and development of standards for zero-emissions, renewably-fuelled vehicles for freight, shipping and aviation. Ensuring zero-emissions vehicles are developed and rolled out where viable, supported by development of appropriate environmental and safety standards, would ensure the sector is equipped for rapid uptake of these technologies in the future. + Plan for and manage integration of electric vehicles with Australia’s electricity networks, building on existing collaborations. This would help ensure energy networks are prepared for increased demand and opportunities created by electrification of transport. + Develop national supply chain guidelines for electric vehicles and new technologies including battery components or renewable feedstocks for biofuels, and align to international initiatives. Nationally-agreed guidelines would support development of sustainable, ethical supply chains to underpin rollout of new technologies.
The extensive survey of literature in the field identifies a broad consensus as to the solutions necessary for the transformation of Australia’s transport networks. By synthesising the available research into twelve recommendations, this report makes that consensus actionable. Its emphasis on solutions with an applicability across the sector provides real opportunities for decision-makers to forge paths to zero-emissions transport.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 7 JUNE 2020 |
Contents
Executive summary 4
SECTION TWO: ESTABLISHED OPPORTUNITIES 18 INTRODUCTION 10 Transformational decade 19
Around the world, countries and SECTION ONE: cities are taking bold steps toward THE STATE OF TRANSPORT zero-emissions transport 20 AND EMISSIONS 13 Established zero-emissions transport Australia’s transport system enables opportunities in Australia 22 connectivity and growth 14
Investments in zero-emissions transport provide benefits beyond climate PASSENGER ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 24 change action 15
Transport emissions 15
COVID-19 shows rapid changes are possible 17 FREIGHT ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 30
AVIATION 34
SHIPPING 35
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SECTION THREE: RECOMMENDATIONS: EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES 36 FOCUS AREAS IN THE DECADE FOR CLIMATE ACTION 48 Getting to zero emissions by 2050 37 References 52 Emerging zero-emissions transport opportunities in Australia 38
PASSENGER ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 39
FREIGHT ROAD AND RAIL TRANSPORT 42
AVIATION 44
SHIPPING 45
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 9 JUNE 2020 | INTRODUCTION |
Transport in Australia is changing and Net zero emissions refers to reducing economy- emissions are growing. Demand for transport wide emissions to zero, or as close to zero as is increasing as Australia’s population expands possible, through well-established opportunities and urbanises, priorities shift and technology and support for emerging solutions, and impacts our lives.1 Transport emissions can be offsetting any remaining emissions (for example, reduced in line with climate commitments, as through carbon forestry). the sector evolves to provide for Australia’s emerging needs. As a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, Australia is committed ‘to keeping a global This report was largely prepared in a pre- temperature rise this century to well below COVID-19 world, but we acknowledge the 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels immense global shift due to the pandemic. and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature The unprecedented global response has rapidly increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius’.3 changed transport networks, political decision- All Australian state and territory governments making, economic priorities and the way our have set goals or aspirations to reach net zero lives are shaped. Many of the consequences of emissions by 2050 or earlier.4 this period in history will not be fully realised or understood for months or years to come. Climate science highlights the importance However, the conclusions this report draws of pursuing 1.5 degrees Celsius, due to the remain clear and important for informing a magnified increase in impacts between 1.5 post-COVID-19 world. and 2 degrees Celsius of warming (see Box 1).5 For Australia, a ‘well below 2 degrees Celsius’ Transport is the fastest growing and third trajectory requires net zero emissions by 2050. largest source of emissions in Australia, behind electricity and stationary energy sectors.2 Achieving zero emissions in transport will be crucial for Australia to reach a net zero
I N T R O D U C T I O N N O I T C R O D U T I N emissions economy.
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BOX 1: WHY IS LIMITING TEMPERATURE RISE TO 1.5°C IMPORTANT?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects significant differences in the global impacts of 1.5°C of warming and 2°C of warming.6 The consequences of 2°C of warming, as compared to 1.5°C, include:
+ A 10-fold increase in the frequency of sea-ice-free summers in the Arctic + A two-fold increase in species loss for vertebrates and plants, and a three-fold increase for insects + A 99% decline in coral reefs, as opposed to a 70-90% loss + Double the decline in marine fisheries + A 2.6 times greater share of the global population exposed to severe heat. The higher sea levels, temperatures, precipitation levels, and the probability of adverse weather events associated with 2°C will also pose greater risks to water supply, food security, economic growth, and human health.
For transport, contributing to this net zero emissions Avoiding journeys will reduce emissions by changing future means achieving zero emissions for the behaviour, replacing trips with digital tele-presence, sector by: and transport demand management strategies.
+ Reducing demand by avoiding transport trips Many of these opportunities, such as increased use where possible of public transport or renewable powered electric vehicles, provide broader benefits as they alleviate + Shifting to lower emissions transport modes and congestion, address affordability, and improve local efficient transport networks amenity and air quality. Meanwhile, the emissions + Improving energy efficiency impact of new transport technologies such as automation and ride-sharing is still unclear and + Employing zero-emissions fuel sources through requires further investigation. renewable powered or fuelled electric, hydrogen and biofuel vehicles.7 Accelerating the implementation of solutions is The solutions needed to transform Australia’s needed for Australia’s transport sector to reach zero transport networks are known, with many ready emissions by 2050.8 Unlocking this potential means to be implemented this decade. Widespread, rapid bringing together a fragmented and complex sector to adoption of well-established strategies along shift Australia’s transport system from the status quo, with mature and demonstrated technologies can towards a zero emissions outcome. The shift needs to achieve much of what is needed this decade. occur in coordination with increasing the transport Substantial investment in research, development sector’s resilience to respond to climate impacts and and commercialisation can close the gap to zero the evolving needs of Australia (see Box 2). emissions across the transport sector by 2050.
Many zero-emissions transport solutions are already being rolled out. Policy, infrastructure and market measures can drive mode shift to more efficient transport modes such as public transport or freight rail. Electrification, hydrogen and biofuels can address emissions in road, rail, aviation and shipping.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 1 1 JUNE 2020 | INTRODUCTION |
BOX 2: EMISSIONS-REDUCTION STRATEGY COORDINATION TO BUILD RESILIENCE REPORT STRUCTURE Warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and more frequent and intense extreme weather events Section one of this report provides the current state all put stress on transport systems. Modelling of transport and emissions trends in Australia. by Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO indicates consistent, ongoing and long-term climate Section two proposes transport opportunities that change in Australia as a result of emissions from are well-established and ready to be implemented. human activity.9 Decision-makers and advisors such Section three explores emerging transport as Infrastructure Australia are already considering opportunities that need more research, guidance resilience in infrastructure planning and delivery.* and development this decade to determine their role in a zero-emissions transport future. Climate change is impacting Australia’s transport networks.10 As the 2019-20 summer bushfires Sections two and three are interspersed with policy demonstrated, the impact to transport networks and research recommendations for government, reduced access to food, fuel and movement to industry and academia, in response to the issues safety.† The cost of the damage to transport and opportunities identified in each section. Many of infrastructure is still to be counted. these recommendations cut across different transport modes, so are repeated in multiple sections. A comprehensive analysis on the physical impacts of climate change for transport infrastructure The final section brings together all of the is beyond the scope of this paper. It is critical to recommendations listed in sections two and three. acknowledge the importance of planning, designing The decade to 2030 is the decade for action; if and building resilience in transport infrastructure government, industry and academia work together to and services alongside our transition to a net zero take action under these 12 recommendations, emissions future. this would set the transport sector on the path to zero emissions.
Moving to Zero: Accelerating the transition to zero- The case studies presented in Moving to zero: emissions transport proposes focus areas (outlined Accelerating the transition to zero-emissions in Table 2: Focus areas) for policy development and transport show there are existing opportunities for research by government, industry and research over Australia’s transport network that are both resilient the next decade. This paper: to climate change, and support the transition to zero emissions across all transport networks. + Brings together research on zero-emissions transport opportunities from different sources and sectors in one place + Summarises major opportunities and issues faced by transport systems + Provides a selection of case studies and ‘quick win’ opportunities.
* Infrastructure Australia’s Infrastructure Priority List 2020 gave greater prominence to resilience considerations including a coastal inundation strategy. See more: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/water-waste-and-coastal-inundation- top-infrastructure-priority-list-20200225-p5441o † During the 2019-20 summer, Australia was impacted by bushfires from the east to west coast, including the only sealed road linking Western Australia and South Australia. See more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-03/nullarbor-road- closures-to-last-five-days-causing-food-shortages/11837324
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THE STATE OF TRANSPORT AND EMISSIONS S E C T I O N 0 1 : 1 I O N 0 T S E C
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 1 3 JUNE 2020 | THE STATE OF TRANSPORT AND EMISSIONS |
Australia’s transport system enables connectivity and growth
Transport is essential for societies, communities The ‘predict and provide’ transport approach and economies to flourish. An effective transport to travel demand and network capacity means system enables the efficient, safe, affordable Australia spends above the OECD average on and sustainable movement of people and goods.11 transport infrastructure, in particular on roads.16 Australia’s transport system seeks to meet these It may be possible to reduce this cost through a needs in the context of a rapidly changing nation. combination of demand management, shifting Unexpected disruptions to our transport networks, modes and implementing new technologies. such as the 2020 global COVID-19 pandemic, can interrupt long-term trends and provide an In preparing Australia’s transport system for new opportunity for the transport sector to evolve technologies and new levels of demand, the sector through and beyond crisis points. also needs to prepare for a zero-emissions future. Expenditure on fossil-fuel dependent transport Key trends facing Australia’s transport infrastructure – such as roads and diesel railways systems include: – can lock in high emissions activities, while public transport and new vehicle charging and refuelling + Increasing urbanisation infrastructure can enable emissions reductions. Infrastructure unprepared for a zero-emissions + An ageing population future risks becoming ‘stranded’ due to significant + Increasing uptake of flexible working patterns and unanticipated losses of value and faces restricted pools of financing.17 Infrastructure built + Increasing off-peak travel today will be in operation for decades to come, while + Better access to real-time transport information.12 policies and strategies put in place in the coming These trends, combined with overall population years will ultimately determine whether zero- growth, are increasing the demand for the key emissions transport can be achieved. transport modes in Australia: road, rail, aviation and shipping. Convenience is a major consideration for passenger and freight transport decisions.13
Access to transport options impact access to employment, education and cultural activities, the cost of living, and quality of life through air quality, noise, stress and time spent in transit. London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone only allows low emissions vehicles to drive in the inner city, and has seen a 36% decrease in air pollution, 3-9% reduction in traffic, and a 13% reduction in CO2 emissions.14
Australia’s private and public sectors are investing unprecedented amounts into transport infrastructure to keep pace with population growth and increasing transport demands. More than AU$123 billion has been spent on infrastructure since 2015, with over AU$200 billion in the pipeline.15 Most of this is for new transport infrastructure, with some upgrades and extensions of existing networks.
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Investments in zero-emissions transport provide benefits beyond climate change action
Road congestion currently costs Australian cities electric buses to use on public transport systems billions of dollars a year in lost productivity and in five Australian states and supporting worker impacts quality of life due to time spent in transit.18 transitions from the now-closed Holden car factory.23 Increased public transport can help address this. For example, the Gold Coast light rail has reduced Amenity and health outcomes will also be improved traffic volumes on the Gold Coast Highway by through reduced noise and better air quality, as will 13.9%.19 The light rail also increased the value of overall access to affordable transport. Barcelona’s property within 800 metres of the route by 30% Superblocks urban and transport planning strategy from 1996 to 2016.20 aims to ‘reclaim public space for people, reduce motorized transport, promote sustainable mobility Shifting passengers from road transport to rail can and active lifestyles, provide urban greening and also mean fewer accidents each year. KiwiRail found mitigate effects of climate change’ and has found moving people and freight by rail rather than road in the transformation reduces exposure to harmful New Zealand provided a net safety benefit of pollution, noise and heat while increasing physical NZ$60-68 million, and eliminated 271 safety activity and access to green space.24 incidents annually.21 The UNDP’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Assessments of the employment and economic highlight the importance of Sustainable Cities and impacts of transportation spending has found Communities (Goal 11) in an increasingly urbanised public transport and road repairs produce more world. The SDGs are interconnected, and action to jobs compared to building new roads22. In Adelaide, address one goal provides opportunities to Precision Buses is designing and manufacturing impact others.
Transport emissions
27 In the year to June 2019, emissions from the direct an additional 20.4 MtCO2e. The remainder of combustion of fuels in transport were 18.9% of total this report excludes international aviation and national emissions (100.4 Mt CO2e), making it the shipping but includes transport-related electricity third biggest contributor, behind electricity and emissions. These indirect emissions will increase in stationary energy sectors in Australia.25 ‡ Transport importance in the coming decades as vehicle fleets emissions have increased by at least 63.5% (39.0 are electrified.
Mt CO2e) between 1990 and June 2019, making transport Australia’s fastest growing sources of The statistics referred to in this report predate emissions.26 This is faster than Australia’s population COVID-19. At publication, data on the impact of growth rate over the same period.§ Official COVID-19 on transport emissions were not yet government projections predict additional growth of available. There are predictions that the pandemic 7% over the next decade to 2030 (see Figure 1). will have significant impacts on the transport sector.28 Scenarios showed Australian aviation These statistics exclude indirect emissions emissions halving due to COVID-19 responses.29 from electric vehicles and Australia’s share of The situation continues to evolve with no clarity yet international aviation and shipping. Together, these on the impacts or outcomes.30 However, there is also forms of transport are estimated to represent the opportunity for action to ensure emissions do not rise significantly in the post-crisis response.31
‡ The biggest sources of emissions are electricity (33.8%) and stationary energy (18.9%) § Based on population growth from 17 million in 1990 to 25 million in 2019
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 1 5 JUNE 2020 | THE STATE OF TRANSPORT AND EMISSIONS |
FIGURE 1: AUSTRALIA’S HISTORICAL TRANSPORT EMISSIONS AND GOVERNMENT FUTURE PROJECTIONS EMISSIONS BY SUBSECTOR (2018)32 ¶
Australia’s projected transport emissions by subsector, 1990 to 2030
120
100
80 e 2 60 MtCO 40
20
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Cars Light commerical Buses Rigid trucks Articulated trucks vehicles
Motorcycles Domestic aviation Water transport Railways Other transport
Australia has the third highest transport emissions Over the same period, fossil-fuelled car sales per capita in the world (excluding aviation), declined 7.8%.40 Policies like the ACT Government’s following the United States and Canada.33 Australia’s fleet transition to zero-emissions vehicles by 2021 aviation emissions are the highest per capita in are driving change.41 the world, at approximately 0.9 tCO2e per year per person.34 Around 81% of Australia’s transport While Australia’s non-road transport emissions are emissions are from road vehicles (see Figure 1). much lower than those from road vehicles, the rate Growing diesel consumption in road transport, of growth in recent years has been much higher. particularly passenger and light commercial vehicles Demand across water transport, aviation and rail (such as utility vehicles) is a major contributing is anticipated to continue growing in the absence factor to Australia’s transport emissions.35 of societal behaviour change, mode shift and technology development.42 Australia’s road vehicle fleet is one of the most energy- and emissions-intensive fleets in the world. Australia’s predominantly car-dependent society Australia’s average emissions intensity for passenger locks in a high-carbon transport system, with vehicles is 45% higher than Europe,36 and it is research exploring processes that contribute and one of only six OECD (Organization for Economic maintain this suggesting some key characteristics Cooperation and Development) countries without and reinforcing linkages: the automotive industry, vehicle emissions standards.37 the provision of car infrastructure, land use pattern choices reinforcing urban sprawl, undermining of Electric vehicles account for 0.6% of Australia’s public transport provision, and the culture of car vehicle fleet, as compared to 3.8% in Europe and consumption.43 Addressing this carbon-intensive 4.7% in China.38 Australia can overcome existing transport system requires concerted and coordinated barriers to electric vehicle uptake with increased action by governments, business and individuals. national coordination and support.39 The tide is turning, with a 203% increase in electric vehicle purchases between 2018 and 2019.
¶ ‘Other transport’ includes off-road recreational and pipeline transport.
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COVID-19 shows rapid changes are possible
Moving to zero: Accelerating the transition to zero- COVID-19 has also raised questions about the emissions transport brings together research and governance of transport systems. Transport resources based on trends over decades of transport companies have been hit hard and are seeking state changes. It is now evident that trends in the sector intervention to safeguard their ability to operate can rapidly change in the face of an unexpected and in the future.51 This could provide an unexpected hugely disruptive crisis. The 2020 global coronavirus opportunity for governments to accelerate zero- pandemic is one such example.44 It is important emissions opportunities. An injection of public to consider the opportunities set out in this report funds into private businesses provides government to focus our rebuilding efforts from COVID-19 on leverage to focus on zero-emissions opportunities. supercharging the transition to a zero-emissions Some countries are also talking about this as an transport network. opportunity for re-nationalising these institutions, giving the state direct oversight on Zero-emissions options are available and feasible, emissions reductions.52 however without clear intervention and direction, post-crisis transport systems could rebound and When Australia, and the world, transitions into a return to emissions-intensive modes. Initial reports post-crisis rebuilding period, it will be paramount from the end of COVID-19 lockdown in China suggest to avoid ‘locking in’ carbon emissions and instead similar or higher car sales numbers and traffic build a zero-emissions economy. Support for building congestion returning.45 Following the 2008 Global public transport, high-speed rail, active travel Financial Crisis, the American President Obama infrastructure, incentives for zero-emissions vehicles, stipulated that stricter fuel efficiency standards and digital infrastructure to support remote working were required by some car manufacturers as part of patterns should be prioritised over additional road government financial assistance bailout programs. building, airport expansions or incentives for diesel This reduced pollution across the industry.46 and petrol vehicles.53 How and when this post- crisis moment arrives is not yet clear at publication Similar requirements should be implemented as of this report, but this report provides a suite of part of conditions for financial support in the options that can all be rolled out in the rebuilding of transport industry in Australia, for example, Australia’s post-coronavirus economy. supporting manufacturers in building electric vehicles, transitioning airlines to use low carbon fuels, designing more fuel-efficient vehicles and improving transport network route design.47
Our rapid adjustment in this crisis suggests moving to a zero-emissions transport network can occur now. Cities are reimagining the streetscape to support less crowded transport modes such as cycling.48 The current context provides a unique opportunity to re-examine our streets and city design are set to achieve the zero-emissions transport outcomes.49
Green recovery programs can focus on immediate actions to protect health, create jobs and create more liveable active cities long-term. Packages can build on existing active travel network plans and be implemented at all levels of government in Australia.50
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 1 7 JUNE 2020 | ESTABLISHED OPPORTUNITIES |
ESTABLISHED OPPORTUNITIES
In the coming decade to 2030, action in zero-emissions transport opportunities. the transport sector, is crucial for Australia Unlocking the potential for a zero-emissions and the rest of the world to meet the transport sector requires bringing together goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.54 a fragmented and complex sector towards a Accelerated action by governments, common goal. ClimateWorks advises government, business and individuals is needed now if business and research institutions to come global temperature rise is to be limited to together around the recommendations identified well below 2 degrees Celsius. in each section to set Australia up for a zero-emissions transport future. This section sets out established opportunities for Australia’s transport sector and related emissions, and explores the issues and outcomes related to these S E C T I O N 0 2 : 2 I O N 0 T S E C
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Transformational decade
ClimateWorks’ Decarbonisation Futures research has A significant transformation is required in the explored a range of future scenarios for Australia coming decade to set the transport sector on a path including one compatible with Australia reducing to zero emissions. Without strategic intervention, emissions in line with ‘well below 2 degrees Celsius Australia’s transport emissions are projected to grow of warming’.55 The research includes the transport by 7% this decade, reaching 108 Mt CO2e in 2030 (as sector, and shows that a zero-emissions transport shown in Figure 1). By contrast, in ClimateWorks’ sector in Australia is possible by 2050 (with the 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible pathway, transport exception of relatively small emissions from aviation emissions peak this decade and then quickly decline. and legacy road vehicles). This will require concerted and coordinated effort by governments, businesses and society at large.
TABLE 1: BENCHMARKS OF PROGRESS TOWARDS NET ZERO TRANSPORT EMISSIONS BY 2050
2C PATHWAYS 1.5C PATHWAY BENCHMARK CHANGE CHANGE 2030 2030 VERSUS 2020 VERSUS 2020
TECHNOLOGY BENCHMARKS
Electric cars 50% of new-car 2020 = <1% 76% of new-car 2020 = <1% (battery electric vehicles and sales, 15% of of sales and sales, 28% of of sales and fuel cell electric vehicles) total fleet total fleet total fleet total fleet Electric trucks 25-39% of new- 2020 = <1% 59% of new- 2020 = <1% (battery electric vehicles and truck sales, 8-13% of sales and truck sales, of sales and fuel cell electric vehicles) of total fleet total fleet 24% of total fleet total fleet Volume of zero-emissions fuels 171-265% 83-111 PJ 134 PJ 338% increase (bioenergy and hydrogen) increase
ENERGY BENCHMARKS
Share of electricity and zero-emissions fuels in total 9-11% 2020 = 3% 16% 2020 = 3% transport energy use Share of electricity and zero- emissions fuels in road passenger 5-9% 2020 = 2% 17% 2020 = 2% and freight energy use Fossil fuel use in 226-233 PJ 5-8% decrease 203 PJ 17% decrease non-road transport
EMISSIONS BENCHMARKS
Total transport emissions 108-115 MtCO2e 2-9% increase** 93 MtCO2e 12% decrease
+ Road transport emissions 89-95 MtCO2e 5-12% increase†† 76 MtCO2e 11% decrease
+ Other transport emissions 18.8-19.5 MtCO2e 5-8% decrease 17 MtCO2e 16% decrease
** Emissions peak in 2025, and decline consistently afterwards. †† Emissions peak between 2025-2027, and decline consistently afterwards.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 1 9 JUNE 2020 | ESTABLISHED OPPORTUNITIES |
Achieving the modelled scenario would include the modelled scenarios. Mainstream use of biofuels immediately accelerating the roll out of mature is assumed to begin by 2030. and demonstrated zero-emissions technologies (Table 1). Electric vehicles comprise the majority of The scenarios presented in Decarbonisation Futures new light vehicle sales by 2030, and together with are only a small selection of many pathways the transition to renewable powered electricity, that could deliver a transport sector compatible provide rapid decarbonisation of passenger with well below 2 degrees Celsius of warming. transport. For example, in the modelled 1.5 degrees Decarbonisation Futures focuses specifically on Celsius scenario, 76% of the light vehicles bought technological innovations and regulatory policy between 2025 and 2030 are battery electric vehicles mechanisms. Future scenario modelling is needed (BEV). By 2030, 28% of all light vehicles on the road to explore the emissions-reduction potential of are BEVs. This is higher than government projections, other policy mechanisms, as well as urban planning, which anticipate 19% of new car sales will be infrastructure and service provision decisions. battery electric or plug-in hybrid in 2030, making up 6% of the total fleet.56 RECOMMENDATION: The modelled scenarios assume electric vehicles DEVELOP A SHARED VISION reach cost parity with fossil fuelled cars sooner than (strategies, targets and frameworks) conservative assumptions suggest, reflecting the continual outperformance of battery technologies The development of a shared vision of a desired zero- against historical projections and the need for emissions transport system can support planning accelerated roll out of more mature and demonstrated and delivery of transport infrastructure and services, technologies under this climate target. and be enabled through developing future scenarios or facilitating forums to develop plans. Biofuel and hydrogen fuel sources play a larger role in heavy road vehicles, aviation and shipping under
Around the world, countries and cities are taking bold steps toward zero-emissions transport
Sixteen countries – and counting – have taken steps use over the six years to 2024, from 3% today to 9% toward phasing out fossil-fuel powered cars,including of the transport modal share.59 scheduled bans on new fossil-fuelled car sales in the UK, France, China, and India. Countries are also Global expansion of rail has increased with rail introducing incentives for electric vehicle sales such infrastructure investment tripling between 2005 and as Japan, South Korea, Ireland and Denmark.57 2015, providing additional access to low emissions Norway electric vehicle incentives have had broad transport options. China has led growth for both support across governments since the 1990s and have urban and high-speed rail construction. Globally rail led to a 50% market share in 2018. Incentives include travel mode share has remained constant at 8%, even tax reductions or subsidies on vehicles, road taxes while overall motorised transport demand has grown, and tolls, and parking; financial compensation for demonstrating that rail can provide a convenient, scrapping fossil-fuelled vehicles; and infrastructure cost-competitive, zero-emissions transport option for charging, parking and priority road access.58 even as demand for transport increases.60
Countries have also set modal shift targets to In addition, cities are leading the way with transport prioritise zero-emissions transport options, mobilising emissions solutions. The C40 coalition of cities financing, infrastructure and other resources to meet committed to ambitious climate action currently the challenge. France has committed to tripling cycle represents 650 million people and 25% of the world’s
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GDP and can deliver 40% of the savings needed to The EV100 initiative brings together companies keep climate change to 1.5 degrees Celsius.61 committed to transition to electric vehicles.67 As businesses own half of new registered vehicles More than 30 major cities around the world have on the road, EV100 sees the huge potential for pledged to buy only zero-emissions buses from 2025, companies to lead on fleet transitions to electric including London, Los Angeles, Auckland, Jakarta, vehicles. EV100 members have switched to over and Moscow. This builds on the example China has 80,000 electric vehicles.68 set, the Chinese city of Shenzhen, with a population of 12 million people, has fully electrified their bus While international maritime shipping emissions are fleet with 16,000 electric buses in eight years.62 not covered by the Paris Climate Agreement, the International Maritime Organisation has targets to Vehicle manufacturers are also setting targets for reduce emissions.69 In aviation, the UN specialised zero-emissions vehicle models; and have invested agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization, US$300 billion in the electrification of global set a global aspirational goal of carbon-neutral vehicle models.63 Volvo has committed to 50% of growth in aviation emissions from 2020 onwards new vehicle sales to be electric cars, alongside to be achieved through aircraft technology working to become a carbon-neutral company by improvements, operational improvements, 2040, covering manufacturing, operations, and sustainable aviation fuels, state-based action plans supply chain.64 The 12-brand Volkswagen Group, and market-based measures.70 ‡‡ Norway is aiming to which includes Audi, Porsche and Bentley, plan to operate all of its short-haul flights (under 1.5 hours) release 70 fully electric vehicle models by 2030, using 100% electricity by 2040.71 while the company is aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 across their entire fleet production and Australia risks falling behind these global efforts. administration operations.65 There is a wealth of global support and experience that can be employed to tackle Australia’s transport Global alliances also provide a platform for emissions. Now is the moment to seize the opportunity. collaboration, information-sharing and increasing ambition. The Transport Decarbonisation Alliance unites members for ambitious, tangible and effective action in the transport sector.66
‡‡ Under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia), airlines are expected to set baselines for emissions reductions on 2020 levels. Given COVID-19 impacts on the airline industry, the baseline could be set very low requiring more effort to meet targets, and risking airlines pulling out of the scheme. Seeking agreement from all stakeholders remains vital for addressing emissions from international aviation. See more: https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/06/airlines-urge-un-body-ease-climate-goals-2020s-traffic-collapses/
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Established zero-emissions transport opportunities in Australia
Many established opportunities are ready to be Changes in planning, infrastructure, service implemented this decade. Widespread, rapid provision, investment and regulatory frameworks are adoption of well-established strategies along with needed for the zero emissions transition to happen. mature and demonstrated technologies can achieve Greater communication and information sharing much of what is needed this decade. between stakeholders can accelerate this process. Interstate collaboration is necessary for Australia- Australia’s passenger and freight kilometres can wide projects to be effective, such as rail network be reduced, and shifted to more efficient modes. pricing or electric vehicle charging infrastructure. Remaining emissions can be eliminated through There is also scope for sharing lessons on transport the use of renewable-powered electricity and emissions issues and opportunities– in particular, zero-emissions fuels. Rolling out established among state and territory governments which have opportunities can achieve emissions reductions all set aspirations or targets for net zero emissions this decade, and can be accelerated immediately. by 2050 at the latest.72 With increased research, development and demonstration investment this decade, Australia Table 2 below defines the scope of what is discussed will be set up to fully reach zero emissions across the in this established opportunities section. entire transport sector between 2030 and 2050.
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TABLE 2: OPPORTUNITY NAVIGATION INDEX
ESTABLISHED EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES
+ Mode shift
+ Transport demand management + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Planning policy electric vehicles + Fuel efficient fossil-fuelled vehicles + Possible support by emerging PASSENGER technologies + Renewable-powered electric TRANSPORT: passenger vehicles ROAD AND RAIL
+ Renewable-powered electric light and heavy commercial vehicles + Mode shift + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Load management electric vehicles + Planning policies + Biofuels LAND FREIGHT: + Fuel efficient fossil-fuelled vehicles + Possible support by emerging ROAD AND RAIL technologies
+ Mode shift
+ Avoid trips + Renewable-powered electric aircraft + Load management + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Flight path efficiency electric aircraft + Local commerce + Biofuels AVIATION + Vehicle design for energy efficiency
+ Renewable-powered electric ships + Local commerce + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Route efficiency electric ships + Vehicle design for energy efficiency + Biofuels SHIPPING
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Passenger road and rail transport
Passenger transport moves millions of Australians Some planning mechanisms that can address every day, including in private cars, public transport, passenger transport emissions include precinct and and active transport modes such as walking city master plans that actively consider emissions, and cycling.73 zoning and growth policies such as Melbourne’s Urban Growth Boundary, priorities for transit-oriented Australia can shift to a zero-emissions passenger developments around existing transport hubs, and transport network at the same time as meeting the building and planning controls such as minimum demands of a growing and urbanising population. parking requirements. The Victorian Transport Integration Act (2010) requires the state to establish Avoiding trips where possible, shifting to more an action plan for transport planning.76 A transport efficient transport modes, and improving technology plan which incorporates the whole-of-government performance all have a role to play in meeting emissions-reduction pledge from the Victorian growing demand while reducing emissions. Climate Change Act (2017) can set the state’s transport network up for a zero emissions future.77
Government targets for emissions reductions REDUCE DEMAND AND alone do not necessarily translate into transport outcomes. An assessment of targets in the cities IMPROVE EFFICIENCY of Copenhagen and Portland found clear climate change mitigation strategies and targets for the 74 Transport demand management strategies, transport sector, at multiple levels of government, planning, infrastructure, services and market were still not adequately reflected in transport incentives are key levers to reduce passenger investment priorities.78 However, this may be transport emissions and meet future challenges. changing due to growing public concern of environmental issues, greater economic pressure, PLANNING AND STRATEGIES and increasing public scrutiny of transport decision making.79 These trends provide decision-makers with Australia’s land use planning system is determined an opportunity to move away from projects that lock through strategic and statutory planning policies. in emissions, to supporting zero-emissions transport These provide both long-term strategic visions for options. In post-COVID-19 economic recovery, tight states and cities, and specific statutory rules to budgets should prioritise green recovery by investing guide development. The planning system is critical in zero-emissions transport options. to transport because it shapes where, when and how Australians travel. Active travel modes (walking, bike riding and scooters) provide opportunities to decrease In the planning stage, established opportunities emissions. The design of urban environments to to address identified passenger transport needs include access to public transport, green space and can be chosen to meet a zero emissions future. local amenities has the potential to enhance the These options include building new infrastructure, health and well-being of residents.80 Towns and expanding existing infrastructure, altering service regions can transform their transport behaviours provisions, or employing policy mechanisms.75 quickly with leadership, resourcing and ongoing These options can be utilised across Australian implementation.81 For example, Seville in Spain jurisdictions, though may need to be tailored to increased the city’s cycling infrastructure from specific states, territories and local government 12km of paths in 2005 to 120km in 2010. In 2011, areas. Achieving zero emissions can be identified over 70,000 daily bicycle trips were recorded.82 as a primary planning objective, in state planning Mode share showed bicycle trips rose from 3.2% frameworks, metropolitan plans such as the Greater to 8.9%, public transport trips increased 4% and Sydney Commission, or local government strategies. private car trips fell 11%.83
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In expanding Australian cities, emissions outcomes Creating attractive public transport networks means should be prioritised when planning future transport improving service frequencies, reliability, accessibility to meet travel demand induced by new residential of services and modal changes, last mile connectivity, areas or increased density. This can be achieved safety, fares and pricing. Bogota’s Bus Rapid Transit through increased public transport services powered system successfully increased public transport use by renewable energy, dedicated active transport from 64% in 1999 to 70% in 2005 through constructing infrastructure, and electric vehicle charging stations 82 kilometres of exclusive busways on trunk corridors powered by renewable energy. The Germany railway and high-quality rail-like stations, and introducing company Deutsche Bahn is committed to using 100% free fare transfers between feeder and trunk services.91 renewable energy for rail operations by 2038.84 Other benefits include reducing travel times across the city, a reduction in traffic accidents, increasing As the Sydney CBD undergoes disruption during the property values around bus stations, and reducing construction work of the Metro train and light rail NOx by 18% and particulate matter by 12%. These network, Transport for NSW worked with business works are part of the first two phases, with a further and employers to develop travel plans and resources six phases planned. Phase one was funded with a local for avoiding driving during peak periods.85 The Travel 25% fuel surcharge (46% of investment), general local Choices behaviour change program has seen a 12% revenues (28%), grants from the National Government reduction in vehicles travelling to the CBD during (20%) and a loan from the World Bank (6%).92 the morning peak hour, and 11% increase in public transport use since 2015.86 The opportunity is not limited to just transport infrastructure. Energy infrastructure is needed to Planning for zero-emissions transport opportunities facilitate the electrification of vehicles, such as cars should also acknowledge the vulnerability of some and buses. The Queensland Electric Super Highway community members to transport disadvantage. In provides fast charging infrastructure every 100-200 Australia, transport disadvantage refers to ‘ongoing kilometers from Coolangatta to Cairns, near amenities difficulties associated with access to transport… and tourist attractions, with power for the chargers [and] difficulties associated with maintaining private sourced from green energy credits or offsets.93 transport (for example, financial stress related to initial cost of purchase, as well ongoing costs such as Conversations amongst sector stakeholders on petrol, insurance and maintenance)’.87 Particularly the role of infrastructure in supporting net zero vulnerable communities include families with young emissions are in their early stages. ClimateWorks children, people with a disability, older people, those Australia, the Infrastructure Sustainability Council on low incomes, Indigenous Australians, and those in of Australia (ISCA) and Australian Sustainable Built geographic locations such as outer-urban, rural Environment Council (ASBEC) are currently working or remote areas. to facilitate these conversations, with an aim to reshape Australia’s infrastructure sector for a INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES net zero emissions future.94
Australia’s public and private sectors are making PRICE SIGNALS AND REGULATIONS unprecedented investments into transport infrastructure, such as railways, roads, airports, Policies, subsidies and pricing mechanisms can bridges, ports, tunnels and walking and cycling support behaviour change to more efficient transport paths.88 Given the long lived nature of these assets, modes and zero-emissions vehicles. and their influence on travel behaviour, it is vital the pipeline of transport infrastructure enables Price signals can incentivise choices to encourage emissions reductions.89 more efficient use of transport systems and support uptake of zero-emissions technologies. Infrastructure and service provision shapes the set of The introduction of congestion charging in London, transport options available to people. Efficient and Stockholm and Milan have led to reductions reliable mass rapid electric transit systems, such as in emissions and pollution of 13-18%. All cities light rail, bus, metro and long-distance rail networks, announced and implemented plans for the charge can shift individuals from private road transport to revenue to go to sustainable mobility (public public transport. Sydney Metro NorthWest rail line transport, bike lanes and pedestrian areas); and is predicted to reduce emissions from transport by the schemes saw decreases in traffic compared avoiding 14 million car trips by 2021, and sourcing to the baseline year of 14-38.5%, and uptake of 100% of operational electricity through a Power public transport of 10-12.5%.95 The Grattan Institute Purchasing Agreement with First Solar.90 has recommended the introduction of congestion charging in Australian cities.96 Regulation such as vehicle emissions standards
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can play a role in enabling all transport users to RECOMMENDATIONS: benefit from innovations by transport sector leaders who are already delivering zero-emissions vehicles. ALIGN GOVERNMENT AND Toyota, Volvo and Subaru have all set targets for BUSINESS STRATEGIES manufacturing and selling electric vehicles (which (Strategies, targets and frameworks) have zero tailpipe emissions).97 New Zealand’s 2021 Transport strategies, targets and frameworks and package of a Clean Car Standard and Clean Car business strategies are aligned to zero emissions Discount will put a fee on new high polluting car and sustainable development targets. sales, the revenues from which will be used to fund subsidises of new lower-emissions vehicles, helping avoid five million tonnes of emissions.98 Australia PRIORITISE NET ZERO EMISSIONS IN remains one of only six OECD countries that do not STRATEGIC AND STATUTORY PLANNING regulate vehicle emissions.99 (Strategies, targets and frameworks)
Australia’s Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions Strategic and statutory planning frameworks align with was established in 2015 to coordinate a whole-of- zero emissions targets for cities, settlements, transport government approach.100 No mandatory emissions systems, infrastructure, and service provision. standards have, however been adopted in Australia to bring fuel standards in line with international best practice.101 Now is an opportunity for Australia to SHIFT PRIVATE VEHICLE TRIPS TO PUBLIC, build on existing work by the Ministerial Forum ACTIVE AND SHARED TRANSPORT OPTIONS on Vehicle Emissions to implement best (Shifting the network) practice standards. Movement of people uses efficient, zero-emissions transport options through improved service provision, subsidies, funding options and other measures.
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Electric vehicle purchases in Australia increased by 203% between 2018 and 2019. By contrast, there has ELECTRIC PASSENGER VEHICLES been a 22-month decline in fossil-fuelled car sales. Despite this increase in uptake, electric vehicles only Electrification is the most mature and demonstrated make up 0.6% of Australia’s vehicle fleet, compared 102 103 technology for rapidly reducing transport emissions. to 3.8% in Europe and 2.3% in New Zealand. Combined with a renewable-powered electricity grid, electric vehicles can play a pivotal role in bringing The upfront cost of electric vehicles remains high in passenger transport emissions to zero. Australia, with the majority of available passenger models costing over AU$60,000. But prices continue Electrification has been demonstrated as to decline due to production efficiencies and design economically viable at scale for transport optimisation, alongside declining costs of batteries journeys, such as passenger trains, light rail, cars, (the most expensive component of an electric 104 motorcycles, bicycles and buses. vehicle). Electric passenger cars purchase cost is expected to become cost competitive or even cheaper 105 Electric vehicles are vehicles powered by electricity than conventional vehicles by the mid-2020s. instead of, or in addition to, liquid fuels. There are four main types of electric vehicles: While the upfront costs of electric vehicles are higher than conventional vehicles, their operating costs are 106 + Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are fully electric less than half, on average. Electricity is cheaper with batteries charged by being plugged into an than fossil fuels, and electric vehicles have lower 107 external power outlet maintenance costs.
+ Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have an electric For high-mileage drivers, such as taxi and ride-share motor but are powered by a hydrogen or another drivers, electric vehicles are already cost-competitive liquid fuel instead of, or in addition to, a battery when the total cost of ownership is taken into 108 + Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have consideration. In the UK, Nottingham’s Council |both an internal combustion engine that uses Taxi Strategy will only license Ultra Low Emission 109 liquid fuel and a battery that can be charged Vehicles (ULEVs) taxis from 2025. To support the |with electricity transition there is financial support, a ‘try before you buy’ program and a network of public charging + Hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) are the same as points (including wireless charging to reduce wait PHEVs with an internal combustion engine that times, minimising work disruption).110 uses liquid fuel, the electric component used to start the ignition.
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Electric buses are currently underutilised in most Fleet electrification commitments have countries, including Australia. They can reduce costs, environmental, economic, health and reputational improve air quality and support local industries.111 benefits for government and businesses. China represents 99% of the global market for Commitments also demonstrate national appetite electric buses with examples such as the city of for electric vehicles to carmakers, support growth Shenzhen transitioning 16,000 buses to a fully of a second-hand market for electric cars, and can electric bus fleet through the support of national and provide necessary impetus for the increased provision municipal government subsidies; affordable leasing of charging infrastructure.120 arrangements with manufacturers and; optimised fleet charging to reduce operational costs.112 In 2019, Charge Together Fleets is a program, co-developed the NSW Government announced plans to electrify by Evenergi and the Electric Vehicle Council Sydney’s fleet of 8,000 buses.113 with funding from ARENA, to assist businesses, governments and councils with electrifying their Australia can overcome existing barriers to electric fleets.121 There are now over 200 fleets and 300 vehicle uptake with increased national coordination registered users – including NRMA and Transgrid – and support.114 To address perceptions of vehicle which provides peer-to-peer learning opportunities, range anxiety and poor access to charging as well as online tools such as a total cost of infrastructure, Australia can increase public ownership calculator that compares electric vehicles education about electric vehicles and increase to fossil-fuelled vehicles.122 provision of public charging stations. Infrastructure Australia has called for the fast-tracking of a GREATER INTEGRATION OF national charging network.115 TRANSPORT AND ELECTRICITY GRID The upcoming Australian National Strategy for Increased uptake of electric vehicles will see greater Electric Vehicles presents a key opportunity for integration of Australia’s electricity and transport governments to establish mechanisms to accelerate networks. Electric vehicles can be integrated into electric vehicle uptake, including recommendations the grid as a battery source and be a net positive put forth by the Senate Select Committee on Electric for Australia’s electricity networks. While electric Vehicles report.116 Financial incentives, pricing vehicles will increase overall electricity demand, mechanisms, and vehicle emissions standards are they can also absorb surplus generation from solar all levers to help accelerate the transition to electric PV during the day and return it to the grid at a later vehicles. As the Technology Roadmap discussion time. This allows for greater renewable penetration paper outlines, Australia brings local capabilities in and improving grid stability and resilience.123 world-leading vehicle design and manufacturing for The average electric vehicle can store approximately fast chargers and vehicle retrofits.117 60 kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy, enough to provide back-up power to an average household for ELECTRIC VEHICLE two days.124 Vehicle-to-grid integration capability FLEET STRATEGIES needs further focus to understand the impact on overall battery life, new infrastructure requirements, Government and business fleets make up 52% of metering systems and policies to manage demand.125 annual new vehicle sales in Australia, and serve as an important source to the second-hand Changes to electricity demand from electric market.118 Fleet procurement guidelines have a large vehicles can also be managed through demand- influence on the future composition of Australia’s side interventions and grid stability infrastructure. total vehicle fleet. Dynamic pricing and smart remote charging can allow consumers to turn charging off and on in Due to their relatively low operating costs, electric response to prices, flattening demand in the 126 vehicles are currently feasible for government and process. Greater understanding of consumer business fleets. ClimateWorks’ analysis for Victorian responses to demand management is an area local governments found that for most light vehicle for future research. types, including hatchbacks, sedans, wagons, sport utility vehicles, vans and minibuses, there is an Demand from bus and larger vehicle fleets can also electric vehicle model within or below local council be mitigated with onsite depot energy storage and total cost of ownership guidelines.§§ 119 solar PVs, as well as opportunity charging (fast charging during service at interchanges or along routes) reducing the load at depots and peak grid demand times.127 Analysis conducted for the City of
§§ There is still a need for cost-competitive utility vehicle (ute) model.
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Auckland found it is possible to mitigate or avoid local grid stabilisation upgrades to meet increased RECOMMENDATIONS: grid demand from electric bus charging.128 REVIEW FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND Coordination between transport and energy sector PRICING MECHANISMS stakeholders is required to ensure electric vehicles (Improving vehicles) are efficiently integrated into the electricity network. The Australian Renewable Energy Agency’s Active support for zero-emissions passenger vehicles, (ARENA) Distributed Energy Integration Program is such as subsidies or road-user pricing. bringing together stakeholders to work on smooth integration of electric vehicles into existing networks and markets.129 DEVELOPMENT AND IMPLEMENTATION OF VEHICLE EMISSIONS STANDARDS (Improving vehicles) SUPPLY CHAIN CONSIDERATIONS Vehicle emissions standards implemented in line As production of electric vehicles is scaled up, the with international best practice. sustainability of their supply chains need to be carefully managed.130 DEVELOP NATIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN GUIDELINES Emissions embodied in the production of electric (Improving vehicles) vehicles batteries can be mitigated through Sustainable, ethical supply chains support rollout increased reuse and recycling. Currently, only of new technologies. 2% of Australia’s annual 3,300 tonnes of lithium- ion battery waste is recycled. If recycled, 95% of components can be turned into new batteries or PLAN FOR AND MANAGE INTEGRATION OF 131 used in other industries. In Japan, used electric ELECTRIC VEHICLES WITH AUSTRALIA’S vehicle batteries are being used for a variety of ELECTRICITY NETWORKS functions, such as powering remote street lights (Improving vehicles) and convenience store fridges.132 Energy networks prepared for increased demand and The Australian Battery Stewardship Council is working opportunities created by electrification of transport. with industry and government to implement a Battery Stewardship Scheme to improve the rate of battery recycling.133 Lithium Australia subsidiary Envirosteam is successfully recycling battery metals from lithium-ion batteries in their Melbourne factory.134
The extraction of rare minerals required for battery production, such as cobalt and lithium, also raises environmental and ethical issues to be navigated. Lithium reserves require hazardous chemicals to be extracted, which can impact soil, water and the surrounding ecosystem.135 Cobalt has similar environmental issues, and is predominately sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where supply chains are notorious for instability, corruption and child labour.136
At the World Economic Forum 2020, 42 international organisations endorsed 10 guiding principles toward a vision for a sustainable global battery chain by 2030.137 These principles include ensuring the circular recovery of battery materials and eliminating child and forced labour from supply chains.138
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Freight road and rail transport
Freight transport refers to the movement of documents. These provide strategic visions for imported and local goods for domestic use, as well Australia’s development at a national, state, and as Australia’s export supply chains, transport modes city level, and guide land use allocations, transport and facilities.139 corridors and infrastructure provisions. These options can be utilised across Australian jurisdictions, Demand for freight is increasing. Total domestic although state-specific contexts will require tailoring freight volumes have grown by 571% from 1970 to to fit their context. Key documents include the 2015-16, and are projected to grow by 25% between National Freight and Supply Chain Strategy, as 2018 and 2040.140 This is being driven by factors such well as location-specific development plans like as Australia’s export market, growing population, and the Murray Basin Freight Rail Project.142 increased e-commerce transactions and consumer expectations of fast delivery. The freight industry is MODE SHIFT evolving from separate haulage, warehousing and distribution firms into integrated logistics companies, Shifting freight from road to rail, where possible, some of which are multi-modal. Growth from 2017 to is a key strategy to reduce freight emissions. It will 2018 in the number of online purchases was 20.2% and lead to immediate emissions reductions, even before it is estimated that e-commerce sales will continue to the potential of low-emissions fuel or renewable 141 double every five years. electricity-powered rolling stock is fully realised. The global average energy intensity of freight Freight emissions can be decoupled from economic rail (as measured by energy use per million tonne growth and freight demand. Effective long-term kilometres) is less than one-third of that of medium planning, shifting freight to zero-emissions modes and heavy trucks.143 In the case of freight travel from and strategies that improve overall efficiency all Port Botany to Greater Sydney, an extra rail service have a role to play in bringing freight transport is estimated to take 54 trucks off the road.144 emissions to zero. Improved infrastructure is one way to shift freight volumes to rail. Metropolitan intermodal terminals and increased rail investment can encourage the use of rail for non-bulk items in capital cities, a REDUCE DEMAND AND market currently monopolised by road freight.145 IMPROVE EFFICIENCY The Victorian Government’s Mode Shift Incentive Scheme funds rail projects to encourage shifting Freight transport emissions can be reduced through from road to rail freight.146 There is an opportunity effective long-term planning, shifting freight to for similar grants to be offered across Australia, zero-emissions modes and strategies that improve as has been done in the United Kingdom147 overall efficiency. and Europe.148
PLANNING AND STRATEGIES Infrastructure is also required to create zero- emissions freight rail lines, and remaining road Australia’s freight network coordinates the daily freight. Currently, only 10% of Australia’s freight rail is movement of large volumes through capital- electrified, with the remaining 90% powered by fossil intensive infrastructure. It does so as trends such fuels. Electrification, and future zero-emissions fuels as automation, new export demands, and shifting like hydrogen and biofuels, will be central to bringing consumer expectations of fast delivery impact the road and rail freight emissions to zero. Their uptake sector. Long-term planning is essential to achieving can be facilitated through the provision of refuelling emissions reductions while meeting other outcomes and charging infrastructure at ports, airports, like profitability and productivity. truck terminals, rail terminals, intermodal facilities, distribution hubs and along key freight routes.149 Reducing freight emissions can be prioritised in key strategic, statutory and infrastructure planning
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Standardising pricing frameworks between road and efficient allocation could be achieved through better rail networks would encourage freight to shift to the information exchange and inclusion of freight rail most efficient mode. Rail freight pays access charges operators in rail use negotiations.159 based on the costs borne by rail infrastructure developers and operators, while road freight is While these opportunities may seem broad and charged based on fuel use and registration fees. complex in usual times, in emergency times there are This leads to inconsistencies and difficulties in opportunities to make changes. The COVID-19 crisis comparing options.150 Thirty-five per cent of highlights the importance of the seamless urban submissions to the Government’s Inquiry into movement of people and goods for the resiliency of National Freight and Supply Chain Priorities our economy. It has made it possible to reexamine highlighted the need to address road pricing networks to meet requirements such as ensuring reform in order to achieve ‘modal neutrality’.151 the steady supply of food, medical supplies and emergency goods. Transport networks have and must As is the case for passenger transport, mode shifting adapt quickly, building a holistic view of how the freight from road to rail will have co-benefits in terms network interacts to ensure resilience is maintained. of safety, congestion and costs. Rail is twenty times These adjustments can enable a more efficient, safer than articulated trucks for moving freight.152 less polluting network in the long term. Digitisation Addressing freight congestion, safety, vehicle noise, and connectivity are key to enabling a seamless pollution and emissions are key issues in maintaining mobility system moving forward. Disruption from social license to operate in residential areas.153 the COVID-19 crisis includes changing patterns in online shopping, domestic and international flights, NETWORK EFFICIENCY food delivery industry, and changes in regional freight networks, agribusiness supply chains and 160 Efforts to improve efficiency in the freight sector will global supply chain risks. Post-COVID-19 economies also reduce emissions. Efficiency can be improved can focus on ‘green recovery’ to implement and by reducing unnecessary kilometres, freight load- develop zero-emissions transport opportunities. management technology, greater data transparency and increased communication and coordination TRANSITION RISKS AND between stakeholders in the sector.154 OPPORTUNITIES
Innovative ways to reduce unnecessary freight An important consideration for freight transport is kilometres will minimise both costs and emissions. the emissions associated with the goods it moves. For example, in some highly urbanised areas, up to In the transition to a zero-emissions economy, demand 50% of parcel supply chain costs relate to ‘last mile’ will increase for some goods and decrease for others. issues. ¶¶ 155 Opportunities can reduce freight costs and emissions like using urban consolidation centres Demand for commodities such as lithium and cobalt, to bring together goods from multiple suppliers or which are required for batteries and solar panels and 156 parcel pick-up lockers with 24/7 customers access. for which Australia has rich resources, are expected to increase exponentially.161 The transparent collection and sharing of data, such as through the forthcoming National Freight Data On the other hand, 75% of Australia’s bulk rail Hub initiative, can contribute to emissions reductions network services the export of iron and coal.162 if emissions data is included. Understanding the International demand of these commodities may emissions and costs related to certain operational decline significantly as companies and governments or investment options can help businesses and enact stricter carbon policies.163 governments make optimal decisions.157 Freight transport companies and infrastructure Facilitating coordination both across and within providers can use scenario analysis and other tools modal freight industries, some of which have tens to explore the compatibility of the goods they serve of thousands of operators, could bolster efforts with a zero emissions world. ClimateWorks’ to optimise efficiency and reduce emissions. For Net Zero Momentum Tracker – Transport sector example, freight rail shares infrastructure with report provides a basis for transport companies to passenger train paths and often cedes priority, discuss and develop net zero emissions targets, 158 *** creating delays that deter greater use of rail. and compare against their peers.164 Transport for NSW has highlighted that more
¶¶ Getting deliveries from centralised nodes to customers’ doors *** The wider road freight transport sector has an estimated 42,000 operators
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RECOMMENDATIONS:
ALIGN GOVERNMENT AND BUSINESS STRATEGIES (Strategies, targets and frameworks) Transport strategies, targets and frameworks and business strategies are aligned to zero emissions and sustainable development targets.
PRIORITISE NET ZERO EMISSIONS IN STRATEGIC AND STATUTORY PLANNING (Strategies, targets and frameworks) Strategic and statutory planning frameworks align with zero emissions targets for cities, settlements, transport systems, infrastructure, and service provision.
SHIFT FREIGHT FROM ROAD TO RAIL (Shifting the network) Movement of goods uses efficient, zero-emissions transport options through improved service provision, subsidies, funding options and other measures.
COORDINATION BOTH BETWEEN AND WITHIN FREIGHT STAKEHOLDERS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS (Shifting the network) Communication and information sharing across and within government and business stakeholders optimise efficiency of freight sector.
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Fleet electrification commitments have environmental, economic, health and reputational ELECTRIC LIGHT benefits for government and businesses. Commitments also demonstrate national appetite COMMERCIAL VEHICLES for electric vehicles to carmakers, have positive flow-on effects in the second-hand car market, and Electrification is the most mature and demonstrated can provide necessary impetus for the increased technology for rapidly reducing transport emissions. provision of charging infrastructure.173 Since 2017, Combined with a renewable-powered electricity grid, Australia Post began to transition their fleet vehicles, electric vehicles can play a pivotal role in bringing with plans to be the largest fleet operator of electric transport emissions to zero. For more background vehicles in Australia. The fleet includes almost 6,000 information see Electric passenger vehicles. vehicles, with electric push bikes and three-wheeled electric delivery vehicles that better support parcel Electrification has been demonstrated as economically delivery as mail preferences change.174 viable at scale for short-haul freight transport journeys, such as light commercial vehicles (vans). Electric vans for use by logistics and freight companies are being built here in Australia. Electric light commercial trucks (vans) purchase SEA Electric, based in Victoria with facilities in cost is expected to become cost-competitive or Dandenong and support for a factory and training even cheaper than conventional vehicles by the facilities in the Latrobe Valley, are electrifying 165 mid-2020s. The upfront cost of electric vehicles delivery vans and rubbish trucks.175 remains high in Australia, however prices continue to decline due to production efficiencies and design Increased uptake of electric vehicles will see greater optimisation, alongside declining costs of batteries integration of Australia’s electricity and transport (the most expensive component of an networks. Demand from larger vehicle fleets can 166 electric vehicle). also be mitigated with onsite depot energy storage and solar PVs, as well as opportunity charging (fast While the upfront costs of electric vehicles are higher charging during service at interchanges or along than conventional vehicles, their operating costs are routes) reducing the load at depots and peak grid 167 less than half, on average. Electricity is cheaper demand times.176 Analysis conducted for the City of than fossil fuels, and electric vehicles have lower Auckland found it is possible to mitigate or avoid 168 maintenance costs. For high-mileage drivers, such local grid stabilisation upgrades to meet increased as taxi and ride-share drivers, electric vehicles are grid demand from electric bus charging.177 already cost-competitive when the total cost of ownership is taken into consideration.169 In the UK, Nottingham’s Council Taxi Strategy will only license Ultra Low Emission Vehicles (ULEVs) taxis from 2025; RECOMMENDATIONS: to support the transition there is financial support, a ‘try before you buy’ program and a network of public REVIEW FINANCIAL INCENTIVES AND charging points (including wireless charging to PRICING MECHANISMS reduce wait times, minimising work disruption).170 (Improving vehicles) Active support for zero-emissions vehicles, such as Due to their relatively low operating costs, electric subsidies or road-user pricing. vehicles are currently feasible for government and business fleets. ClimateWorks’ analysis for Victorian local governments found that for most light vehicle DEVELOP ZERO-EMISSIONS FLEET types, including hatchbacks, sedans, wagons, sport STRATEGIES FOR GOVERNMENT AND utility vehicles, vans and minibuses, there is an CORPORATE VEHICLE FLEETS electric vehicle model within or below local council (Improving vehicles) total cost of ownership guidelines.171, ††† Government and corporate vehicle fleets (electric Government and business fleets make up 52% of cars and public transport rolling stock) transition to annual new vehicle sales in Australia, and serve as electric fleets powered with renewable-energy and an important source to the second-hand market.172 invest in charging infrastructure, enabling broader Fleet procurement guidelines have a large influence takeup of electric vehicles. on the future composition of Australia’s total vehicle fleet.
††† There is still a need for cost-competitive utility vehicle (ute) model
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Aviation
Air freight accounts for less than 1% of international teleconferencing, videoconferencing and using freight in terms of volume, but 21% of the freight in web-based communications tools; travel only terms of value due to high priced items.178 Demand is when absolutely necessary; combine multiple tasks expected to continue growing for timely delivery of into one trip; and use the most fuel-efficient, low items such as high value manufacturing and mining emissions and economical transportation possible.181 products, and perishables such as food, urgent Domestic flights can be shifted to more efficient medical products and market flowers.179 modes such as high-speed intercity rail modes.182 Between 2012-15 China’s domestic aviation emissions Aviation emissions need to be decoupled from are estimated to have reduced 3-5% due to mode economic growth and demand. Effective long-term shifting to high-speed rail.183, ‡‡‡ High-speed rail lines planning, setting up the industry to shift to zero- can reduce aviation activity on the same corridors emissions fuels, and strategies that improve overall by as much as 80% within a short time frame of efficiency all have a role to play in bringing aviation becoming operational.184 Research by Beyond Zero emissions to zero.180 Most solutions are still emerging, Emissions suggests a high-speed rail connection such as alternative fuels. along Australia’s east coast could reduce emissions by 3.5 million tonnes.185
Network efficiency improvements in shipping can bring emissions reductions. Flight paths REDUCE DEMAND AND optimisation, aerodynamics, vehicle design and IMPROVE EFFICIENCY weight minimisation all play a role in making the sector more efficient.186 Addressing passenger aviation emissions includes reducing the need for flights. Communications Infrastructure that facilitates electrification and infrastructure such as video conference facilities switching to zero-emissions fuels can be built today. can replace the need for frequent physical travel. Refuelling infrastructure at ports and airports is The National Geographic has set out business travel also needed to enable and normalise the use of policies to substitute travel suggesting: alternative fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen.
‡‡‡ Between 2008-15 China constructed 20,000 kms of high-speed rail
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Shipping
Freight shipping volumes account for 98% of The IMO has been requiring emissions reductions in Australia’s total international trade, and 74% in international shipping through the Energy Efficiency terms of value.187 Demand is expected to continue Design Index, which provides new build ship design growing for timely delivery of items such as high efficiencies standards.191 As these measure are value manufacturing and mining products, and limited to new ships, it will take decades to cover the perishables such as food, urgent medical products entire shipping fleet; additionally, many large ships and market flowers.188 have already met the 2030 target well in advance, suggesting the efficiency standards are Shipping emissions can be decoupled from economic not particularly ambitious.192 growth and demand. Effective long-term planning, setting up the industry to shift to zero-emissions Infrastructure that facilitates electrification and fuels, and strategies that improve overall efficiency switching to zero-emissions fuels can also be all have a role to play in bringing shipping emissions built today. Refuelling infrastructure at ports is to zero.189 Most solutions are still emerging, such as also needed to enable and normalise the use of alternative fuels. alternative fuels such as biofuels and hydrogen.193
REDUCE DEMAND AND IMPROVE EFFICIENCY
Network efficiency improvements in shipping can bring emissions reductions. Operational efficiencies can be gained through improved ship design, engine efficiencies, load management and route optimisations to reduce freight kilometres for shipping.190
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 3 5 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES
Substantial investment in research, This section sets out emerging opportunities, development and commercialisation can potential transport technology solutions, and close the gap to zero emissions across the explores the issues and outcomes they present transport sector by 2050. Zero-emissions for reaching a zero-emissions transport sector. fuels like hydrogen and biofuels can eliminate emissions across modes. Emerging Unlocking the potential for a zero-emissions technology and disruptors need guidance transport sector requires bringing together now to ensure they lead to a zero-emissions a fragmented and complex sector towards a transport sector. common goal. ClimateWorks advises government, business and research institutions come together This decade is crucial to set up Australia’s around the recommendations identified in transport sector for reaching zero emissions each section to advance policy, research and by 2050. Australia can prepare for emerging implementation that will set Australia up for a technologies, growing transport demand, zero-emissions transport future. and the physical impacts of climate change, alongside zero-emissions
S E C T I : O 3 N 0 T S E C transport opportunities.
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Getting to zero emissions by 2050
ClimateWorks’ Decarbonisation Futures research has In passenger transport by 2050, 18.6 million battery explored a range of future scenarios for Australia electric vehicles are on the road (compared to compatible with Australia reducing emissions in line approximately 35,000 in 2020). with well belw 2 degrees Celsius of warming.194 §§§ The research includes the transport sector, and shows The scenarios presented in Decarbonisation Futures that a zero-emissions transport sector in Australia are only a small selection of many pathways is possible by 2050 (with the exception of relatively that could deliver a transport sector compatible small emissions from aviation and legacy road with well below 2 degrees Celsius of warming. vehicles). This will require concerted and coordinated The modelled scenarios focus specifically on effort by governments, business, and society at large. technological innovations and regulatory policy mechanisms. Future scenario modelling is needed A significant transformation is required in the to explore the emissions reduction potential of coming decade to set the transport sector on a path other policy mechanisms, as well as urban planning, to zero emissions. Without strategic intervention, infrastructure and service provision decisions. Australia’s transport emissions are projected to grow More detailed modelling of the emissions impact by 7% this decade, reaching 108 Mt CO2e in 2030 of technological disruptions such as autonomous (as shown in Figure 1). By contrast, in ClimateWorks’ vehicles and ride sharing is also needed. 1.5 degrees Celsius compatible pathway, transport emissions peak in 2025 before a sharp decline, approximately halving from the 2025 peak by 2035. RECOMMENDATION:
Achieving this under the modelled scenario would DEVELOP A SHARED VISION include rapidly developing and commercialising (Strategies, targets and frameworks) emerging zero-emissions technologies. Biofuel and The development of a shared vision of a desired zero- hydrogen play a larger role in heavy road vehicles, emissions transport system can support planning aviation and shipping under the modelled scenario. and delivery of transport infrastructure and services, Mainstream use of biofuels is assumed to begin in and be enabled through developing future scenarios 2030, reaching a penetration of 44% of aviation or facilitating forums to develop plans. fuel and 25% of shipping fuel by 2040.
§§§ ClimateWorks’ modelled 1.5 degrees Celsius scenario is compatible with a 50% chance of limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 3 7 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
Emerging zero-emissions transport opportunities in Australia
To reach zero emissions across the transport sector The transformational decade is vital in setting up by 2050, there are many established opportunities the pathway to zero emissions with established already discussed that can set the sector on a opportunities, and providing time to develop and zero emissions pathway. There are also emerging guide emerging technologies to contribute to 2030. opportunities that require further investment in research, development and commercialisation to Table 3 below defines the scope of what is discussed in close the gap to zero emissions across the transport this emerging opportunities section. sector by 2050.
TABLE 3: OPPORTUNITY NAVIGATION INDEX
ESTABLISHED EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES
+ Mode shift + Transport demand management + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Planning policy electric vehicles + Fuel efficient fossil-fuelled vehicles + Possible support by emerging technologies PASSENGER + Renewable-powered electric TRANSPORT: passenger vehicles ROAD AND RAIL
+ Renewable-powered electric light and heavy commercial vehicles + Mode shift + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Load management electric vehicles + Planning policies + Biofuels + Fuel efficient fossil-fuelled vehicles LAND FREIGHT: + Possible support by emerging ROAD AND RAIL technologies
+ Mode shift + Avoid trips + Renewable-powered electric aircraft + Load management + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Flight path efficiency electric aircraft + Local commerce + Biofuels AVIATION + Vehicle design for energy efficiency
+ Renewable-powered electric ships + Local commerce + Renewable hydrogen fuel cell + Route efficiency electric ships + Vehicle design for energy efficiency + Biofuels SHIPPING
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Passenger road and rail transport
Emerging technologies could reduce passenger emissions to zero, but more research and investment is needed to understand the full impact. OTHER TECHNOLOGY AND DISRUPTORS
Other emerging and ‘disruptive’ transport RENEWABLE FUELS technologies are new innovations with the potential to create significant and rapid change in transport 196 Hydrogen, biofuels and other low emissions fuels systems and cities. have a key role to play in improving the emissions Transport systems are both facing significant outcomes of certain transport modes. With the technological change.197 Along with electrification right supply chains, hydrogen and biofuels can and alternative fuels, emerging and disruptive be zero-emissions fuels. The full extent of zero- technologies including automation, ride sharing, emissions fuels is still an emerging opportunity. ride sourcing, transport applications, mobility-as- More investment in research and development a-service, drone delivery, and other innovations is required to progress zero-emissions fuels. are redefining how people and goods are moved. The current atmosphere of change caused by the Hydrogen passenger cars and buses have been COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity for developed, but their capital and operating costs are reducing emissions to be prioritised as transport expected to remain above those of their battery- systems are reconfigured. electric alternatives.195 The advent of new technologies, such as ride- sourcing Uber deliveries and drone deliveries, RECOMMENDATION: bring significant uncertainty as to how these will reconfigure transport infrastructure, and flow on SUPPORT RESEARCH, COMMERCIALISATION, effects for emissions.198 For example, the introduction AND STANDARDS of ride sourcing platforms in cities can add to traffic (Improving vehicles) and attract passengers away from public transport, walking and cycling.199 Analysis shows that ride Research, commercialisation, and standards to sourcing trips are 69% more polluting than the trips support the development and roll out where viable they replace as a result of vehicles driving more renewably-fuelled zero-emissions vehicles. with no passengers and because they replace lower- carbon modes such as walking, cycling and public transport. Companies and policymakers can address this through using trips to access public transport, electrifying vehicles and pooling trips.200 New transport technologies also raise concerns regarding safety, privacy and the use of data.201 The increasing use of contractors to deliver services also raises questions about worker protections and safety.202
While many such technologies are market-led, governments can play a proactive role in deciding whether and how disruptive technologies are applied in Australia to meet transport objectives, including zero emissions. This may involve governments adapting planning and regulatory processes to manage potential social, economic and environmental impacts from new innovations and seeking community input.203
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 3 9 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
Autonomous vehicles, sharing platforms and mobility- autonomous vehicles will have on emissions, as-a-service have the potential to shape future ranging from 2-25% reduction or 3-20% increases.216 emissions reductions if paired with zero-emissions There remain gaps in understanding how vehicles and introduced in complement with public autonomous vehicles will impact overall vehicle transport, rather than as its competitor.204 kilometres, vehicle ownership rates, fuel use and more broadly how transport systems will evolve to Other emerging technologies and disruptors heading include autonomous vehicles.217 In order to minimise to Australia include: emissions impacts, combining autonomous vehicles with electric technology and shared models of + Drone delivery applications, such as Google Wing205 ownership are needed.218 + Food delivery applications, such as UberEats Research and modelling often looks ahead to future and Deliveroo206 scenarios in which high autonomous vehicle uptake + Helicopter commuter services, such as UberAir207 has already been achieved, leaving questions about the transition while autonomous vehicles and human + Increased use of contractors to undertake drivers share the road, and what impact this will transport services, such as Amazon Flex208 have on emissions.¶¶¶ + Micromobility, such as human-powered vehicles, such as bicycles, skates, skateboards and SHARING PLATFORMS kick-scooters.209 Sharing our travel journey is not new. Mass public AUTOMATION transport options such as trains and buses have existed for hundreds of years.219 Since the mid-20th Automated vehicles are capable of driving century there has been rising private car use, and in themselves without intervention from a human response, transport network companies have recast driver.210 International standards of driving the idea of sharing travel in a private context. automation range from zero or ‘driver support’ (for example, blind spot warning) to five or ‘fully Types of sharing platforms that have emerged include: automated driving under all conditions’ (for example, driverless taxi).211 Vehicle connectivity to + Ridesharing (or car-pooling) - connects other vehicles is an important enabling factor for drivers and passengers with similar origins automation to realise emissions reductions. and destinations, such as Liftango for city commuters, or Share Your Ride for long Automation is already at work in our transport distance carpooling between cities system. Freight logistics facilities use automated + Ride-sourcing (or ride-hailing) - connects drivers equipment to unload, organise and load cargo, and passengers, on demand and as a paid service and some public transport is automated, such as for example, Uber, Ola and Didi 212 Sydney Metro’s driverless trains. – Ride-splitting platforms - allows multiple passengers to share a ride-sourcing trip at a The private and public sectors are investing in the reduced price, for example, UberPOOL development and use of autonomous vehicles, especially in road transport. The NSW Government + Car sharing - allows private car owners to rent has allocated AU$10 million over four years to trials their vehicles for short periods of time, for for connected and automated vehicles.213 But further example, GoGet and Car Next Door research, consultation and collaboration is needed to + Bike or scooter sharing - provides bicycles or resolve regulatory issues. As the National Transport scooters for short term hire, for example, Commission noted, there are over 700 regulatory Lime, oBikes. barriers to autonomous vehicle uptake in different state, territory and federal laws; in particular, Shifting to more efficient transport modes such regulation tends to separate vehicles and drivers, while as bikes or scooters, or car-pooling, should be for autonomous vehicles, these are one and the same.214 prioritised in a zero-emissions transport system. However, ride sharing/sourcing is the most The effect autonomous vehicles will have on popular of the emerging platforms. In 2018, 21% of emissions in Australia is unclear.215 Various Australians used a private ride sharing service over international studies offer estimates of the impact a three-month period.220 While there is increasing
¶¶¶ For example, Infrastructure Victoria (2018) Advice on Automated and Zero Emissions Vehicles model only considered impacts from 2031-2046.
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scrutiny over new on demand service platforms, the research on emissions impacts. Studies focus on focus is on workers’ safety and business impacts. the reduction of vehicle kilometres travelled, which The Inquiry into the Victorian On-Demand Workforce may result from consumers switching their transport background paper does not mention the implications mode away from private cars to shared or public for congestion or emissions.221 transport modes. This could have consequences for emissions, but outcomes are uncertain without There is a lack of data on the emissions impact clear policy that prioritises zero-emissions transport of sharing platforms, but recent research found modes. MaaS application ‘Whim’ has been operating ride-hailing trips create 70% more pollution than in Helsinki, connecting many of the city’s transport the trips they displace.222 International evidence options (public transport, taxi, car rental, car also suggests ridesharing increases congestion. sharing, and city bike) in one subscription and one While ridesharing replaces solo car travel in some app. Some key findings are that public transport instances, it often encourages additional journeys is the key for MaaS, representing 95% of all Whim and reduces public transport use. Ridesharing trips; MaaS users are multimodal, often combining companies were found to be the central cause different transport modes; ride-hailing (taxi) use rose of a 62% increase in congestion in San Francisco 2.1 times for MaaS users than the average Helsinki between 2010 and 2016.223 Over the same period residents; and MaaS helps solve first/last mile gaps public transport use decreased in the city, and with more taxi and bike trips immediately before similar trends have been observed in other cities.224 and after a public transport trip.226
MOBILITY-AS-A-SERVICE RECOMMENDATION:
Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) systems are integrated ASSESS AND MANAGE EMISSIONS digital platforms used to plan, book, and pay for IMPACTS OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE transport modes and services.225 Subscribers can TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES connect to a range of transport options (such as, (Strategies, targets and frameworks) public transport, taxi, car rental, car sharing and bike share) in one place, regardless of their owners Prepare for emerging and disruptive technologies, or operators, with pricing models from pay-as-you- and ensure new technologies align with zero go through to unlimited travel options. emissions strategies, by developing guidance, policies and regulations for federal, state and The emissions impact of these new services is not local governments. clear due to limited use in Australia and minimal
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 41 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
Freight road and rail transport
For heavy road and rail freight, international case HYDROGEN studies and ClimateWorks’ Decarbonisation Futures research show there will be a role for electrification Hydrogen is a versatile element used in a variety and alternative fuels. Reaching a zero-emissions of applications such as transport fuel and as a raw freight transport sector requires research and material in industrial processes. Hydrogen powered investment in emerging opportunities, to progress the first internal combustion engines some 200 years electrification of heavy vehicles and use of zero- ago.229 It can be produced using fossil fuels or via emissions fuels. zero-emissions means such as electrolysis, a process that uses renewable-powered electricity and water.230 Electrolysis uses significant quantities of energy and water,231 but strategies such as using recycled water can help mitigate impacts on natural resources.232 ELECTRIC HEAVY VEHICLES Hydrogen-fuelled trucks are suitable for long Electrification is still in the development and distance journeys, heavy payloads (where the weight commercialisation phase for heavy vehicles, freight of batteries is a disadvantage) and cases where rail and fire trucks.227 The technology can rapidly rapid refueling is needed.233 It is estimated that the reduce transport emissions, and combined with total cost of ownership for renewable hydrogen a renewable powered electricity grid, can bring heavy-duty trucks will be comparable with the transport emissions to zero. For more background cost of diesel powertrains by 2030.234 Nikola Motor information see ‘Electric passenger vehicles’ and Company has developed a semi-trailer truck able to ‘Electric light commercial vehicles’ in ‘Section two: travel up to 1,900km on a single tank of hydrogen. It Well-established opportunities’. is due to be commercially available in 2020.235
Research and pilot projects for rigid and articulated In the case of long distance freight rail, hydrogen trucks are focused on overcoming current barriers may aid the transition away from diesel as the such as the on-board batteries crowding out room refuelling infrastructure could be cost-competitive for cargo loads, and limited access to charging with electrification.236Germany deployed two infrastructure. Daimler AG’s eCascadia is due for hydrogen fuel cell trains in 2018, with a contract volume production in 2021, while the Tesla Semi, for fourteen in total by 2021. These trains can travel which has a range of 800 kilometres, is scheduled around 1000km on a single tank of hydrogen.237 for limited production in late 2020. 228 The transport sector alone cannot create the supply and demand needed for hydrogen to scale up and create an economically viable industry, but transport applications can play a vital role in stimulating RENEWABLE FUELS commercial demand for hydrogen across the economy.238 Australia has the resources to produce Hydrogen, biofuels and other low-emissions fuels renewable hydrogen for domestic use, as well as have a key role to play in improving the emissions to become a leading global exporter of renewable outcomes of certain transport modes. With the hydrogen, creating jobs and economic benefits.239 right supply chains, hydrogen and biofuels can be zero-emissions fuels. The full extent of zero- emissions fuels is still an emerging opportunity. More investment in research and development is required to progress zero-emissions fuels.
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BIOFUELS AND OTHER ALTERNATIVE FUELS
Biofuels are fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol, which are produced from plant and animal matter such as vegetable oils, corn and animal fats.240 Other alternative low-emissions fuels include ammonia and renewable-produced methanol and synthetic diesel.
These alternative fuels are at varying levels of technological and commercial readiness. The use of these fuels at scale is promising for the non-road transport modes such as rail.
In some cases, alternative fuels can be used to ‘drop- in’**** to existing freight vehicles as a replacement for diesel and other high emissions fuels. These provide options to use existing engines and fuel distribution systems with minor modifications required.241 This is an important factor for reducing the emissions of existing fleets, some of which have lifespans of over 25 years.
The expansion of alternative fuels use poses some challenges for their supply chains. The feedstocks required for ‘first generation’ biofuels compete for land and water with existing agricultural production.242 ‘Advanced’ biofuels, made from non- food biomass such as wood residues and waste, avoid some of these externalities but are at an earlier stage of technological maturity.243
RECOMMENDATIONS:
SUPPORT RESEARCH, COMMERCIALISATION, AND STANDARDS (Improving vehicles) Research, commercialisation, and standards to support the development and roll out where viable renewably-fuelled zero-emissions vehicles.
DEVELOP NATIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN GUIDELINES (Improving vehicles) Sustainable, ethical supply chains support rollout of new technologies.
**** Chemically-identical substitutes for conventional fuels that do not require engine modification
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 4 3 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
Aviation
In aviation, international case studies and ClimateWorks’ Decarbonisation Futures research show there will be a role for electrification and alternative fuels. Further investment in research and RENEWABLE FUELS development is required to progress electrification of aircraft and use of zero-emissions fuels. Hydrogen and biofuels can be zero-emissions fuels and can play a central role in decarbonising the aviation sector in applications where electrification is not viable.
ELECTRIC PLANES HYDROGEN
Electrification is still in the development and Hydrogen is a versatile element used in a variety commercialisation phase for aviation vehicles. of applications such as transport fuel and as a raw The technology can rapidly reduce transport material in industrial processes. Hydrogen powered emissions, and combined with a renewable powered the first internal combustion engines some 200 years electricity grid, can bring transport emissions to ago.250 It can be produced using fossil fuels or via zero. For more background information on electric zero-emissions means such as electrolysis, a process vehicles generally, see ‘Electric passenger vehicles’ that uses renewable-powered electricity and water.251 and ‘Electric light commercial vehicles’ in ‘Section Electrolysis uses significant quantities of energy and two: Well-established opportunities’. water,252 but strategies such as using recycled water can help mitigate impacts on natural resources.253 Electric aviation planes, drones, and helicopters have been developed and are in limited use. The use of hydrogen in aviation is being tested, with Current development and trials are focused on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration short-haul flights. There is a need for further (NASA) committing US$6 million to develop more development and research to understand their role advanced hydrogen-electric hybrid technology in future transport networks. By 2035, the electric for aircraft.254 aircraft market is estimated to be worth US$22 billion.244 A key area for research is the development The transport sector alone cannot create the supply of battery storage capability. and demand needed for hydrogen to scale up and create an economically viable industry, but transport The ICAO is monitoring developments as they applications can play a vital role in stimulating work towards creating new standards for electric commercial demand for hydrogen across the aircraft.245 Australian company Electro.Aero, economy.255 Australia has the resources to produce operated the world’s first commercial electric renewable hydrogen for domestic use, as well as aircraft flight in 2018.246 Airbus plans to start test to become a leading global exporter of renewable flights of their electric 100-seater E-Fan X planes hydrogen, creating jobs and economic benefits.256 in 2020.247 BIOFUELS AND OTHER Electric aircraft also offer additional benefits. Pipistrel’s electric aircraft, the Taurus G4, requires ALTERNATIVE FUELS less runway length for take-off than its fuel-powered equivalent.248 Electric planes are also near silent, Biofuels are fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol, which allows them to fly and land closer to dwellings which are produced from plant and animal matter – an increase in flexibility that could improve such as vegetable oils, corn and animal fats.257 Other aircraft flight paths, which in turn can reduce fuel alternative low-emissions fuels include ammonia and consumption for the industry.249 renewable-produced methanol and synthetic diesel.
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These alternative fuels are at varying levels of The expansion of alternative fuels use poses some technological and commercial readiness. The use of challenges for their supply chains. The feedstocks these fuels at scale is promising for the non-road required for ‘first generation’ biofuels compete transport modes of aviation. for land and water with existing agricultural production.262 ‘Advanced’ biofuels, made from non- In some cases, alternative fuels can be used to ‘drop- food biomass such as wood residues and waste, in’†††† to existing freight vehicles as a replacement for avoid some of these externalities but are at an diesel and other high emissions fuels. These provide earlier stage of technological maturity.263 options to use existing engines and fuel distribution systems with minor modifications required.258 This While more research and development is needed is an important factor for reducing the emissions of to bring alternative zero-emissions fuels to the existing fleets, some of which have lifespans of mainstream market, there is momentum in over 25 years. the industry. Alternative jet fuels have been in commercial use in Australia since 2018,264 and a Current safety and performance requirements pilot biorefinery for jet fuel is under construction for alternative fuel use in aviation mean they can in Gladstone, Queensland.265 only be blended with conventional jet fuel.259 The International Renewable Energy Agency notes that meeting certification standards for sustainable RECOMMENDATION: aviation fuels can take years and millions of dollars to complete.260 There is an urgent need for SUPPORT RESEARCH, COMMERCIALISATION, international and national standards that facilitate AND STANDARDS greater uptake of zero-emissions fuels in aviation (Improving vehicles) and shipping. Five biofuel blends have been Research, commercialisation, and standards to 261 approved by the ICAO. support the development and roll out where viable renewably-fuelled zero-emissions vehicles.
†††† Chemically-identical substitutes for conventional fuels that do not require engine modification
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 4 5 JUNE 2020 | EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES |
Shipping
For shipping, international case studies and material in industrial processes. Hydrogen powered the ClimateWorks’ Decarbonisation Futures research first internal combustion engines some 200 years ago.268 show there will be a role for electrification and It can be produced using fossil fuels or via zero- alternative fuels. Reaching a zero-emissions emissions means such as electrolysis, a process that transport sector requires emerging opportunities. uses renewable-powered electricity and water.269 More investment in research and development is Electrolysis uses significant quantities of energy and required to progress electrific ships and the use of water, but strategies such as using recycled water zero-emissions fuels. can help mitigate impacts on natural resources.270
The EU has provided €5 million in funding for the construction of two zero-emissions hydrogen fuel cell ships in Norway and France.271 ELECTRIC SHIPS The transport sector alone cannot create the supply Electrification is still in the development and and demand needed for hydrogen to scale up and commercialisation phase for shipping. The create an economically viable industry, but transport technology can rapidly reduce transport emissions, applications can play a vital role in stimulating and combined with a renewable powered electricity commercial demand for hydrogen across the grid, can bring transport emissions to zero. Current economy.272 Australia has the resources to produce development and trails are focused on shorter ferry renewable hydrogen for domestic use, as well as trips. There is a need for further development and to become a leading global exporter of renewable research to understand their role in future transport hydrogen, creating jobs and economic benefits.273 networks. For more background information on electric vehicles generally, see ‘Electric passenger BIOFUELS AND OTHER vehicles’ and ‘Electric light commercial vehicles’ in ‘Section two: Well-established opportunities’. ALTERNATIVE FUELS A Norwegian local authority recently committing to purchase a fleet of 20 all-electric ferries266, after the Biofuels are fuels such as biodiesel and ethanol, 60 metre electric ferry, Ellen, completed its maiden which are produced from plant and animal matter 274 journey in Denmark in 2019267. such as vegetable oils, corn and animal fats. Other alternative low-emissions fuels include ammonia and renewable-produced methanol and synthetic diesel.
These alternative fuels are at varying levels of RENEWABLE FUELS technological and commercial readiness. Research and development of these fuels at scale shows Hydrogen, biofuels and other low emissions fuels promise for shipping. have a key role to play in improving the emissions outcomes of certain transport modes. With the In some cases, alternative fuels can be used to right supply chains, hydrogen and biofuels can be ‘drop-in’ to existing freight vehicles as a replacement ‡‡‡‡ zero-emissions fuels. These alternative fuels will for diesel and other high emissions fuels. These play a central role in decarbonising shipping, in provide options to use existing engines and fuel applications where electrification is not viable. distribution systems with minor modifications required.275 This is an important factor for reducing the emissions of existing fleets, some of which have HYDROGEN lifespans of over 25 years.
Hydrogen is a versatile element used in a variety of However, the transition to new ports and refuelling applications such as transport fuel and as a raw infrastructure is time-, capital- and resource-
‡‡‡‡ Chemically-identical substitutes for conventional fuels that do not require engine modification
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intensive. LNG bunkering infrastructure, While more research and development is needed for example, took 10 years to develop but still only to bring alternative zero-emissions fuels to the supplies 1% of the global shipping fleet.276 §§§§ There mainstream market, there is momentum in the is an urgent need for international and national industry. International shipping conglomerate standards that facilitate greater uptake of zero- Maersk will develop commercially viable emissions fuels in aviation and shipping. zero-emissions vessels by 2030, lead industry collaboration, and research into new fuels in order to The expansion of alternative fuels use poses some meet a net zero emissions by 2050 commitment.279 challenges for their supply chains. The feedstocks required for ‘first generation’ biofuels compete for land and water with existing agricultural RECOMMENDATION: production.277 ‘Advanced’ biofuels, made from non- food biomass such as wood residues and waste, SUPPORT RESEARCH, COMMERCIALISATION, avoid some of these externalities but are at an AND STANDARDS earlier stage of technological maturity.278 (Improving vehicles) Research, commercialisation, and standards to support the development and roll out where viable renewably-fuelled zero-emissions vehicles.
§§§§ Processing and infrastructure needed to supply fuel to ships. Three methods: i) truck-to-ship; ii) ship-to-ship; or iii) shore-to-ship.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 4 7 JUNE 2020 | CONCLUSION |
FOCUS AREAS IN THE DECADE FOR CLIMATE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS
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The 2019 United in Science report280 found that the current decade is the ‘transformational decade’, when action is crucial for Australia and the rest of the world to meet the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, including in the transport sector. Concerted and coordinated action by governments, business and individuals needs to begin now if global temperature rise is to be limited to well below 2 degrees Celsius.
This report sets out established opportunities (including mature and demonstrated technologies) that can be adopted in the next decade. It summarises emerging opportunities that require investment in research, development and demonstration in order to close the gap to zero-emissions transport by 2050.
The transport sector is large and fragmented, supporting activity across Australia’s entire economy using a variety of transport modes. As this report shows, there is a wealth of research, case studies and data available across the whole sector to draw on.
By bringing together opportunities for a zero- emissions transport sector in the one reference point, this report highlights both the common features and unique opportunities between passenger and freight, road, rail, aviation and shipping sub-sectors. Common areas for action that feature throughout this report are:
+ Aligning strategies, planning and frameworks with zero-emissions transport networks + Shifting transport networks to support more efficient and shared mobility mode choices, through infrastructure, services and pricing mechanisms + Improving vehicles to run at zero-emissions.
Table 4 provides details of ClimateWorks Australia’s 12 recommendations for the transport sector under these three broad themes. Some of these recommendations relate to one part of the transport system, others relate across the whole sector, as summarised in the right-hand column. Each recommendation responds to a gap between the current state of play (as described in Sections 2 and 3) and future potential for a zero emissions transport system, as detailed in the table.
Overall, unlocking the potential for a zero- emissions transport sector requires bringing together a fragmented and complex sector towards a common goal. If government, business and research institutions come together around recommendations listed below to advance policy, research and implementation, this would set Australia up for a zero-emissions transport future.
CLIMATEWORKS AUSTRALIA | | 49 JUNE 2020 | CONCLUSION |
TABLE 4: SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS
CURRENT FUTURE RELEVANT DOMINANT RECOMMENDATION POTENTIAL SECTORS STATE OF PLAY
Uncertainty on how Coordinated vision DEVELOP A SHARED VISION PASSENGER to plan for a future for future zero- of a desired zero-emissions zero-emissions emissions transport transport system, to support LAND FREIGHT transport system, systems to ensure a planning and delivery of transport and the required smooth and timely infrastructure and services AVIATION supporting policies transition (e.g. developing future scenarios; and technology facilitating forums to develop plans) SHIPPING
Lack of or Transport ALIGN GOVERNMENT PASSENGER disconnect strategies, targets STRATEGIES to zero emissions between emissions and frameworks before 2050 for both direct LAND FREIGHT reduction and business transport operations and broader AVIATION strategies, strategies are transport systems transport aligned to zero SHIPPING strategies and emissions and ALIGN BUSINESS STRATEGIES business strategies sustainable PASSENGER for passenger transport operators development (e.g. public transport operators and LAND FREIGHT targets airlines) and freight businesses to AVIATION zero emissions before 2050 SHIPPING
Lack of or Strategic and PRIORITISE NET ZERO disconnect statutory planning EMISSIONS IN STRATEGIC PASSENGER between emissions frameworks align AND STATUTORY PLANNING reduction targets, with zero emissions for cities, settlements, transport and how transport targets systems, infrastructure, and service is planned and provision LAND FREIGHT
STRATEGIES, TARGETS AND FRAMEWORKS AND TARGETS STRATEGIES, implemented
Uncertainty on Prepared for ASSESS AND MANAGE how to prepare emerging and EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF for emerging and disruptive EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE disruptive transport technologies, TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGIES PASSENGER technologies, and and ensuring new by developing guidance, policies potential emissions technologies align and regulations for federal, state impacts with zero emissions and local governments strategies
Low mode share of Movement of SHIFT PRIVATE VEHICLE efficient transport people and goods TRIPS TO PUBLIC, ACTIVE modes (public, uses efficient, zero- AND SHARED TRANSPORT PASSENGER active and shared emissions transport OPTIONS, AND SHIFT FREIGHT transport for options FROM ROAD TO RAIL, through passengers; rail improved service provision, for freight) subsidies, funding options and other measures LAND FREIGHT SHIFTING THE NETWORK THE SHIFTING
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CURRENT FUTURE RELEVANT DOMINANT RECOMMENDATION POTENTIAL SECTORS STATE OF PLAY
Potential for High communication COORDINATION BOTH improved freight and information BETWEEN AND WITHIN sector efficiency sharing across and FREIGHT stakeholders to through data, within government reduce emissions (e.g. with communication and business stakeholders for both passenger and information stakeholders to and freight to coordinate use of LAND FREIGHT sharing across and optimise efficiency train lines; or across modes for within government of freight sector intermodal hubs to shift to more and business efficient trips) stakeholders SHIFTING THE NETWORK THE SHIFTING
Absence of support Active support for REVIEW FINANCIAL for zero-emissions zero-emissions INCENTIVES AND PRICING PASSENGER vehicles vehicles MECHANISMS to support zero-emissions passenger and freight vehicles (e.g. subsidies, LAND FREIGHT road-user pricing)
Absence of vehicle Vehicle emissions CONTINUE DEVELOPMENT emissions standards standards AND IMPLEMENTATION PASSENGER in Australia implemented in line OF VEHICLE EMISSIONS with international STANDARDS best practice and adoption of international LAND FREIGHT best practice standards
High potential Government and BUILD ON AND DEVELOP for fleet corporate vehicle ZERO-EMISSIONS FLEET transformation, fleets transition to STRATEGIES PASSENGER but limited takeup electric fleets powered for government and corporate due to lack of with renewable energy vehicle fleets (electric cars and coordination and and invest in charging public transport rolling stock) active support infrastructure, enabling broader LAND FREIGHT takeup of electric vehicles
Limited direction, Zero-emissions SUPPORT RESEARCH, LAND FREIGHT trials, standards, and vehicles for freight, COMMERCIALISATION, AND uptake in Australia shipping and aviation STANDARDS to support roll out AVIATION IMPROVING VEHICLES IMPROVING of renewable-fuelled are developed and of renewably-fuelled vehicles for vehicles for freight, rolled out where freight, shipping and aviation shipping and aviation viable SHIPPING
Uncertainty about Energy networks PLAN FOR AND MANAGE energy network prepared for INTEGRATION OF PASSENGER impacts and increased demand ELECTRIC VEHICLES WITH infrastructure and opportunities AUSTRALIA’S ELECTRICITY upgrades created by NETWORKS electrification of building on existing LAND FREIGHT transport collaborations
Lack of standards Sustainable, ethical DEVELOP NATIONAL creating uncertainty supply chains support SUPPLY CHAIN GUIDELINES PASSENGER of supply chain rollout of new for electric vehicles and new impacts of new technologies technologies (e.g. battery technologies components or renewable feedstocks for biofuels) and LAND FREIGHT align to international initiatives
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References
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19 City of Gold Coast (2017) Building our City - Light Rail Corridor 2017 Status Report, p.7, www.goldcoast.qld.gov.au/documents/bf/light-rail-status-report-2017.PDF 20 The Conversation (2017) Why Gold Coast light rail was worth it (it’s about more than patronage), https://theconversation.com/why-gold-coast-light-rail-was-worth-it-its-about-more-than- patronage-78190 21 KiwiRail (2018) Moving New Zealand, p.7, https://ara.net.au/sites/default/files/u16/KiwiRail_Value%20 of%20Rail_171218.pdf 22 Smart Growth America (2011) Lessons from the Stimulus, p. 2, https://smartgrowthamerica.org/app/ legacy/documents/lessons-from-the-stimulus.pdf 23 Australian Manufacturing (2017) First Aussie-made electric bus hits Adelaide’s streets, www.australianmanufacturing.com.au/45569/first-aussie-made-electric-bus-hits-adelaides-streets 24 Mueller, N. et al. (2020) Changing the urban design of cities for health: The superblock model. Environment International, 134, p.1, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0160412019315223 25 Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy (2019) Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2019, p. 13, https://publications.industry.gov.au/ publications/climate-change/system/files/resources/gas-group-2/nggi-quarterly-update-jun-2019.pdf; ibid. 26 ibid, p. 9. 27 ClimateWorks Australia (2020) Decarbonisation Futures, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp- content/uploads/2020/04/Decarbonisation-Futures-March-2020-full-report-.pdf
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41 ACT Government (2018) ACT’s Transition to Zero Emissions Vehicles Action Plan 2018-2021, https://www.environment.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0012/1188498/2018-21-ACTs-transition-to- zero-emissions-vehicles-Action-Plan-ACCESS.pdf 42 Australian Government Department of the Environment and Energy (2019) Quarterly Update of Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: June 2019, p. 13, https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/ climate-change/system/files/resources/4aa/australias-emissions-projections-2019-report.pdf 43 Mattiolia, G, Roberts, C, Steinbergerc, J.K, and Brown, A. (2020) The political economy of car dependence: A systems of provision approach, Energy Research & Social Science, 66. 44 Australian Government Department of Health (2020) Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert: current situation and case numbers, https://www.health.gov.au/news/health-alerts/novel-coronavirus-2019- ncov-health-alert/coronavirus-covid-19-current-situation-and-case-numbers 45 Reuters (2020), China’s auto industry wastes no time coaxing drivers back to showrooms after lockdown, www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-autos-china/chinas-auto-industry-wastes-no-time- coaxing-drivers-back-to-showrooms-after-lockdown-idUSKBN21E139; Sydney Morning Hearld (2020) Traffic jams return to Chinese cities driving up fuel demand, https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ traffic-jams-return-to-chinese-cities-driving-up-fuel-demand-20200430-p54om5.html 46 New Yorker (2020) If We’re Bailing Out Corporations They Should Bail Out the Planet, www.newyorker. com/news/daily-comment/if-were-bailing-out-corporations-they-should-bail-out-the-planet 47 Climate Home News (2020) Governments urged to attach green strings to long-term coronavirus recovery plans, www.climatechangenews.com/2020/03/23/governments-urged-attach-green-strings-long-term- coronavirus-recovery-plans 48 CityLab (2020) In a Global Health Emergency, the Bicycle Shines, https://www.citylab.com/ perspective/2020/03/coronavirus-bike-lane-emergency-transportation-covid-19/608725/ 49 The Guardian (2020) Milan announces ambitious scheme to reduce car use after lockdown, https://www. theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/milan-seeks-to-prevent-post-crisis-return-of-traffic-pollution 50 Bicycle Network (2020) Pedalling to a better normal, https://s23705.pcdn.co/wp-content/ uploads/2020/05/Pedalling-to-a-better-normal_Bicycle-NetworkFINAL.pdf 51 Wong, Y Z (2020) For public transport to keep running, operators must find ways to outlast coronavirus, https://theconversation.com/for-public-transport-to-keep-running-operators-must-find-ways-to- outlast-coronavirus-134224; ABC News (2020) Virgin Australia seeks $1.4 billion coronavirus bailout, Qantas says if that happens, it wants $4.2 billion, www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-31/virgin-seeks-coronavirus- bailout-qantas-warns-against-payouts/12105654; Flight Global (2020) Australia unveils agricultural freight export network amid disrupted supply chains, https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transport/australia- unveils-agricultural-freight-export-network-amid-disrupted-supply-chains/138031.article 52 Independent (2020) Coronavirus: UK could nationalise airlines, railways and bus service during pandemic, www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-airline-railways-bus-nationalised-uk-grant- shapps-covid-19-a9407276.html 53 Transport & Environment (2020) The coronavirus crisis means we need a new Green Deal, www.transportenvironment.org/newsroom/blog/coronavirus-crisis-means-we-need-new-green-deal 54 Science Advisory Group to UN Climate Action Summit 2019 (2019) United in Science, https://public.wmo. int/en/media/press-release/landmark-united-science-report-informs-climate-action-summit 55 ClimateWorks (2020) Decarbonisation Futures, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/04/Decarbonisation-Futures-March-2020-full-report-.pdf 56 ibid, p. 22. 57 Centre for Climate Protection (2018) Survey of Global Activity to Phase Out Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles, https://theclimatecenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Survey-on-Global-Activities-to- Phase-Out-ICE-Vehicles-FINAL-Oct-3-2018.pdf 58 Norsk elbilforening (2020) Norweigan EV policy, https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-policy/ 59 The Local fr (2018) On your bike! How France plans to convert commuters into cyclists, www.thelocal.fr/20180914/on-your-bike-how-france-plans-to-turn-commuters-into-cyclists 60 International Energy Agency (2019) Tracking Transport, www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019/rail
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61 C40 Cities & ARUP (2016) Deadline 2020, https://cdn.locomotive.works/sites/5ab410c8a2f42204838f797e/ content_entry5ab410fb74c4833febe6c81a/5ad4d6ae74c4837def5d3cde/files/Deadline_2020. pdf?1541690065 62 Ellen Macarthur Foundation (2019) Shenzhen, www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/ Shenzhen_-Case-Study_Mar19.pdf 63 Reuters (2019) Auto investment electric, https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT- ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html; State of EVs (2019) Appendix 1 - Vehicle model availability and Appendix 2 - Global OEM fleet electrification commitments, p. 49-52, https://electricvehiclecouncil.com. au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf 64 Volvo Cars (2019) Volvo Cars reveals ambitious new climate plan, https://www.volvocars.com/au/about/ australia/i-roll-enewsletter/2019/november/volvo-cars-reveals-ambitious-new-climate-plan 65 Automotive News (2019) VW accelerates electric push with more models, more production, https://www. autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/vw-accelerates-electric-push-more-models-more-production 66 For more information on the Transport Decarbonisation Alliance, see: http://tda-mobility.org/ 67 For more information on the EV100 initiative, see: https://www.theclimategroup.org/project/ev100 68 The Climate Group (2020) EV100 Annual Report, www.theclimategroup.org/sites/default/files/ downloads/ev100_annual_progress_and_insights_report_2020.pdf 69 International Maritime Organisation (2020) Greenhouse Gas Emissions, http://www.imo.org/en/ OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/GHG-Emissions.aspx 70 International Civil Aviation Organisation (2020) Climate Change, https://www.icao.int/environmental- protection/pages/climate-change.aspx 71 World Economic Forum (2018) Norway aims to make all short-haul flights electric by 2040, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/01/norway-electric-short-haul-flights-2040/ 72 Climate Council (2019) State of Play: Renewable Energy Leaders and Losers, https://www.climatecouncil. org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/CC_State-Renewable-Energy-Nov-2019_V5.pdf 73 Infrastructure Australia (2019) An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs: The Australian Infrastructure Audit 2019, p. 260, www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-08/ Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019.pdf 74 World Resources Institute (2015) Strategies for Sustainable Cities: Demystifying Transport Demand Management, www.wri.org/blog/2015/03/strategies-sustainable-cities-demystifying-transport- demand-management 75 HM Treasury (2013) Infrastructure Carbon Review Technical Report, p.23, https://assets.publishing. service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/260710/infrastructure_ carbon_review_251113.pdf 76 Transport Integration Act 2010 (Vic) Part 4 ‘Planning’, p. 55 77 Climate Change Act 2017 (Vic) Part 5 ‘Planning for climate change’, Division 3 ‘Emissions reduction pledges’, p.33 78 Driscoll, P (2014) Breaking Carbon Lock-In: Path Dependencies in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects, Planning Practice & Research (29), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.108 0/02697459.2014.929847 79 ibid, p.328. 80 Giles-Corti, B. et al., 2013. The influence of urban design on neighbourhood walking following residential relocation: Longitudinal results from the RESIDE study. Social Science & Medicine, 77(1), pp.20–30. 81 Transport for London (2014) International Cycling Infrastructure Best Practice Study, www.content.tfl.gov.uk/international-cycling-infrastructure-best-practice-study.pdf 82 EuroNews (2018) Seville: How a small Spanish city became a cycling hub for all, www.euronews.com/2018/10/12/seville-how-a-small-spanish-city-became-a-cycling-hub-for-all-view 83 Marques, R, Hernández-Herrador, V, Calvo-Salazar, M, & García-Cebrián, J.A. (2015) How infrastructure can promote cycling in cities: Lessons from Seville, Research in Transportation Economics, 53, pp. 31-44. 84 Railway Technology (2019) Deutsche Bahn signs five-year renewable energy deal, www.railway-technology.com/news/deutsche-bahn-signs-five-year-renewable-energy-deal
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85 Transport for NSW (2018) Travel Choices. Accessed at: https://www.mysydney.nsw.gov.au/travel-choices 86 Transport for NSW (2018) Public Transport Use on the Rise for Sydney CBD, https://mysydneycbd.nsw. gov.au/news/public-transport-use-rise-sydney-cbd 87 Rosier, K and McDonald, M (2011) The relationship between transport and disadvantage in Australia, Australian Institute of Family Studies, Melbourne, p. 1, www.aifs.gov.au/cfca/sites/default/files/ publication-documents/rs4.pdf 88 Australian Bureau of Statistics (2019) 8762.0 Engineering Construction Activity, Australia, TABLE 06. Activity, Australia, Original, https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/ Lookup/8762.0Main+Features1Sep%202019?OpenDocument; ISCA, ClimateWorks Australia and ASBEC (2020) Issues Paper: Reshaping Infrastructure for a net zero emissions future, p.12, https://www. climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ISCA-CWA-ASBEC-Reshaping-Infrastructure- Issues-Paper-March-2020_FINAL-web.pdf 89 ibid, p.8 90 Sydney Metro (2013) Environmental Impact Statement Two, Chapter 17: Climate Change and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, p.11, https://majorprojects.accelo.com/public/8eee33801a1ff2ed286a92ead426423e/06_ NWRL%20EIS%20Stage%202_%20Chapters%2014%20to%2017.pdf 91 Cain, A.C. et al. (2007) Applicability of TransMilenio bus rapid transit system of Bogotá, Colombia, to the United States. Transportation Research Record, 2034(2034), p.45–54. https://journals.sagepub.com/ doi/10.3141/2034-06 92 Turner, M., Kooshian, C. and Winkelman, S. (2012) Case study: Colombia’s bus rapid transit (BRT) development and expansion. Center for Clean Air Policy, Washington, DC, https://ccap.org/resource/ case-study-colombias-bus-rapid-transit-brt-development-and-expansion/ 93 Queensland (2020) Drive Electric - Queensland’s Electric Super Highway, www.queensland.com/ en-au/journey/drive-electric-queenslands-electric-super-highway; Queensland Government (2019) Queensland’s Electric Super Highway, https://www.qld.gov.au/transport/projects/electricvehicles/ future/super-highway 94 ISCA, ClimateWorks Australia and ASBEC (2020) Issues Paper: Reshaping Infrastructure for a net zero emissions future, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ISCA-CWA- ASBEC-Reshaping-Infrastructure-Issues-Paper-March-2020_FINAL-web.pdf 95 Croci, E (2016) Urban Road Pricing: A Comparative Study on the Experiences of London, Stockholm and Milan. Transportation Research Procedia, 14, pp. 253-262. 96 Terrill, M., Moran, G., and Ha, J. (2019) Why it’s time for congestion charging. Grattan Institute, https://grattan.edu.au/report/why-its-time-for-congestion-charging/ 97 Electric Vehicle Council (2019) State of electric vehicles in Australia, p. 52, https://electricvehiclecouncil. com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf; and Schmidt, B. (2020), Subaru targets 100% electric cars by mid-2030, but ‘mild hybrids’ only headed to Australia. The Driven, https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only- headed-to-australia/ 98 New Zealand Government (2019) Govt proposing to make clear cars cheaper to tackle climate change, www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-proposing-make-clean-cars-cheaper-tackle-climate-change 99 Climate Change Authority (2019) Policies for reducing light vehicle emissions, http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/light-vehicle-emissions-standards-australia/policies- reducing-light-vehicle-emissions 100 Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications (2019) Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions, https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/vehicles/environment/forum/index.aspx 101 Smit, R. (2019) Vehicle CO2 emissions legislation in Australia – A brief history in an international context, p. 10. Transport Energy/Emission Research, https://www.transport-e-research.com/publications 102 Electric Vehicle Council (2020) Huge jump in Aussie EV sales underscores massive untapped potential, https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/huge-jump-in-aussie-ev-sales-underscores-massive- untapped-potential/ 103 Ministry of Transport (2020) Monthly electric and hybrid light vehicles registration, https://www.transport.govt.nz/mot-resources/vehicle-fleet-statistics/monthly-electric-and-hy7[-brid- light-vehicle-registrations/
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104 McKinsey & Company (2019) Making electric vehicles profitable, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable 105 BloombergNEF (2019) Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019, https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle- outlook/#toc-download 106 RACV (2019) How much it really costs to own an electric vehicle, https://www.racv.com.au/royalauto/ moving/news-information/electric-vehicle-running-costs.html 107 ibid. 108 McKinsey & Company (2019) Making electric vehicles profitable, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable 109 Nottingham City Council (2020) Electric taxis, www.transportnottingham.com/driving/electric-taxis/ 110 CleanTechnica (2020) UK Puts £3.4 Million Into Wireless Charging For Electric Taxis, https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/06/uk-puts-3-4-million-into-wireless-charging-for-electric-taxis/ 111 BloombergNEF (2018) Electric Buses in Cities: Driving Towards Cleaner Air and Lower CO2, https://data. bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/24/2018/05/Electric-Buses-in-Cities-Report-BNEF-C40-Citi.pdf; Business Insider Australia (2017) South Australia just built the nation’s first electric bus, https://www.businessinsider.com.au/south-australia-just-built-the-nations-first-electric-bus-2017-6 112 International Energy Agency (2019) Global EV Outlook 2019: Scaling-up the transition to electric mobility, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2807?fileName=Global_EV_Outlook_2019.pdf; Lu, L., Lulu, X. and W. Zhou (2018) How Did Shenzhen, China Build World’s Largest Electric Bus Fleet? World Resources Institute, www.wri.org/blog/2018/04/how-did-shenzhen-china-build-world-s-largest-electric-bus-fleet 113 The Driven (2019) NSW unveils plan to switch Sydney’s 8,000 buses to all-electric, https://thedriven. io/2019/10/28/nsw-transport-minister-wants-all-of-sydneys-8000-buses-to-go-all-electric/ 114 Electric Vehicle Council (2019) State of electric vehicles in Australia 2019, p. 9, https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf 115 Infrastructure Australia (2019) An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs: The Australian Infrastructure Audit 2019, p. 285, https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/ default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019.pdf 116 Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (2019) A National Strategy for Electric Vehicles, https://publications.industry.gov.au/publications/climate-change/ climate-change/government/national-vehicle-strategy.html; Commonwealth of Australia (2019) Select Committee on Electric Vehicles - Report, https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/ Senate/Electric_Vehicles/ElectricVehicles/Report/b02 117 Australian Government Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resource (2020) Technology Roadmap Discussion Paper, p. 25, https://consult.industry.gov.au/climate-change/technology- investment-roadmap/supporting_documents/technologyinvestmentroadmapdiscussionpaper.pdf 118 Australian Financial Review (2018) Car fleets are big business in Australia, https://www.afr.com/ companies/car-fleets-are-big-business-in-australia-20180521-h10c3o 119 ClimateWorks Australia (2018) Electric vehicle ready local government fleets - Finances and vehicle availability, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/resource/electric-vehicle-ready-local-government- fleets-increasing-uptake-and-ambition/ 120 Electric Vehicle Council (2019) State of electric vehicles in Australia, p. 12, https://electricvehiclecouncil. com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf 121 Australian Renewable Energy Agency (2019) Helping fleets to switch to electric vehicles, https://arena.gov.au/news/helping-fleets-to-switch-to-electric-vehicles/ 122 For more information, visit: https://fleets.chargetogether.org/ 123 Evenergi (2019) Managing the impacts of renewably powered electric vehicles on electricity distribution networks, https://arena.gov.au/assets/2019/03/managing-the-impacts-of-renewably-powered-electric- vehicles-on-distribution-networks.pdf 124 World Resources Institute (2019) How California can use electric vehicles to keep the lights on, www.wri.org/blog/2019/11/how-california-can-use-electric-vehicles-keep-lights 125 Infrastructure Victoria (2019) Advice on automated and zero emissions vehicles infrastructure, p. 117,
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https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/project/automated-and-zero-emission-vehicle- infrastructure/ 126 World Economic Forum (2019) How we can embrace the electrical vehicle transition by adopting smart charging, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/how-charging-for-electricity-on-a-sliding-scale- could-power-the-electric-vehicle-transition 127 See for example, Heliox fast-charging in Wellington NZ (2019): www.heliox.nl/projects/first-double- deck-buses-in-the-world-in-wellington-new-zealand 128 Elementenergy (2018) A Study of the Impact of Electrification of Auckland’s Bus Depots on the Local Electricity Grid, https://cff-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/storage/files/ goYZtMAiNeyBnqOAapgYh4IzuGpDjIkK0XylzEyO.pdf 129 Australian Renewable Energy Agency (2019) DEIP, https://arena.gov.au/knowledge-innovation/ distributed-energy-integration-program/ 130 UC Berkeley School of Law, Center for Law, Energy & the Environment & Natural Resource Governance Institute (2020) Building A Sustainable Electric Vehicle Battery Supply Chain, https://www.law.berkeley. edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Building-A-Sustainable-Electric-Vehicle-Battery-Supply-Chain.pdf 131 CSIRO (2019) Lithium-ion battery recycling, www.csiro.au/en/Research/EF/Areas/Grids-and-storage/ Energy-storage/Battery-recycling 132 Nissan (2020) The Reborn Light, http://www.nissan.co.jp/THEREBORNLIGHT/EN/; Toyota (2018) Seven- Eleven Japan and Toyota to Launch Joint Next-generation Convenience Store Project in Autumn 2019 toward Greater CO2 Emissions Reduction, https://global.toyota/en/newsroom/corporate/22833613. html?padid=ag478_from_kv 133 See more information at: https://bsc.org.au/ 134 TechInvest (2019) Major breakthrough for Lithium Australia signing Korean LIB MoU, https://techinvest.online/major-breakthrough-for-lithium-australia-with-signing-of-korean-lib-mou/ 135 Friends of the Earth (2013) Lithium, www.foeeurope.org/sites/default/files/publications/13_factsheet- lithium-gb.pdf 136 The Conversation (2017) Politically charged: do you know where your batteries come from? https://theconversation.com/politically-charged-do-you-know-where-your-batteries-come- from-80886; Amnesty International (2013) Profits and loss: mining and human rights in Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, https://www.amnesty.nl/content/uploads/2016/11/afr620012013en. pdf?x57439 137 For more information, visit: https://www.weforum.org/global-battery-alliance/action. 138 See also State of EVs (2019) Appendix 3 - OEM plans for electric vehicle battery recycling p.52-53, https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf 139 Infrastructure Australia (2019) An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs: The Australian Infrastructure Audit 2019, p. 260, https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/ default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019.pdf 140 Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Cities and Regional Development (2019) Australian aggregate freight forecasts – 2019 update, p.v., https://www.bitre.gov.au/publications/2019/ australian_aggregate_freight_forecasts_2019 141 Australia Post (2019) Inside Australian Online Shopping 2019 eCommerce Industry Report, https://auspost.com.au/content/dam/auspost_corp/media/documents/inside-australian-online- shopping-ecommerce-report.pdf; Transport for NSW (2019) NSW Freights and Ports Plan 2018-2023, p.26, https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/projects/strategy/nsw-freight-and-ports-plan-0/part-2-state- of-freight 142 For more information, visit: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/national-strategy.aspx; Australian Government Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Communications (2018) Murray Basin Freight Rail Project, https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/ projects/ProjectDetails.aspx?Project_id=062827-15VIC-PKG 143 International Energy Agency (2017) The Future of Rail, p.48, www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-rail 144 NSW Government (2018) NSW Freight and Ports Plan 2018-2023, p.34, https://www.transport.nsw.gov. au/projects/strategy/nsw-freight-and-ports-plan-0/part-2-state-of-freight
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145 ibid, p.35; Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (2018) Fixing Freight: Establishing Freight Performance Australia, p. 13, https://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Fixing-Freight-Establishing- Freight-Performance-Australia-1.pdf 146 Victoria State Government (2020) Key freight projects, https://transport.vic.gov.au/ports-and-freight/ key-freight-projects#MSIS 147 For more information, see: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/mode-shift-revenue-support- msrs-grant-scheme 148 For more information, see: https://www.welcomeurope.com/european-funds/marco-polo-ii-461+361. html#tab=onglet_details 149 International Council on Clean Transportation (2017) Developing hydrogen fuelling infrastructure for fuel cell vehicles: a status update, https://theicct.org/publications/developing-hydrogen-fueling- infrastructure-fuel-cell-vehicles-status-update 150 Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (2018) Fixing Freight: Establishing Freight Transport Australia, p. 37, https://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Fixing-Freight-Establishing-Freight- Performance-Australia-1.pdf 151 ibid, p.36. 152 The Conversation (2014) Too many loads on our roads when rail is the answer, https://theconversation. com/too-many-loads-on-our-roads-when-rail-is-the-answer-24118 153 Infrastructure Victoria (2019) Advice on Securing Victoria’s Powers Capacity, p. 90-92, https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Securing_Victorias_Ports_ Capacity_WEB-1.pdf 154 Li, Y & Yu, Y, (2017) The use of freight apps in road freight transport for CO₂ reduction European Transport Research Review, Vol. 9(3), pp36. 155 Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (2018) Fixing Freight: Establishing Freight Transport Australia, p. 39, https://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Fixing-Freight-Establishing-Freight- Performance-Australia-1.pdf 156 McKinsey & Company (2017) Urban commercial transport and the future of mobility, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-insights/urban-commercial- transport-and-the-future-of-mobility 157 For more information, visit: https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/transport/freight/national-freight-data- hub/index.aspx 158 National Transport Commission (2016) Who Moves What Where - Freight and Passenger Transport in Australia, p. 24, https://www.ntc.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/files/Whomoveswhatwherereport.pdf; Infrastructure Australia (2019) An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs: The Australian Infrastructure Audit 2019, p. 340, https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/sites/ default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019.pdf 159 NSW Government (2018) NSW Freight and Ports Plan 2018-2023, p.34, https://www.transport.nsw.gov. au/projects/strategy/nsw-freight-and-ports-plan-0/part-2-state-of-freight 160 Government News (2020) Aus Post retrains posties, cuts priority letters, https://www.governmentnews. com.au/aus-post-retrains-posties-cuts-priority-letters/; Australia Post (2020) Coronavirus: Domestic updates, https://auspost.com.au/about-us/news-media/important-updates/coronavirus/ coronavirus-domestic-updates#deliveries; Eater (2020) Is the New Coronavirus Really Spurring a Boom in Food Delivery? https://sf.eater.com/2020/3/13/21178499/food-delivery-covid-19-san-francisco; Infrastructure Magazine (2020) Infrastructure industry implements Coronavirus response, https:// infrastructuremagazine.com.au/2020/03/24/infrastructure-industry-implements-coronavirus-response/; KPMG (2020) COVID-19: Impacts on Australia’s food and agribusiness sector, https://home.kpmg/au/en/ home/insights/2020/03/coronavirus-covid-19-impact-on-food-agribusiness-sector.html; International Chamber of Shipping (2020) Joint call for the G20 to support the maritime sector and global supply chains, http://www.ics-shipping.org/news/press-releases/2020/03/24/joint-call-for-the-g20-to-support- the-maritime-sector-and-global-supply-chains 161 ClimateWorks Australia (2020) Decarbonisation Futures, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp- content/uploads/2020/04/Decarbonisation-Futures-March-2020-full-report-.pdf 162 Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (2019) Australian
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aggregate freight forecasts - 2019 update, p. 15, https://www.bitre.gov.au/sites/default/files/ documents/research_report_152-final.pdf 163 International Energy Agency (2019) Coal 2019, https://www.iea.org/reports/coal-2019; International Energy Agency (2019) Tracking Industry. Accessed at: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking- industry-2019/iron-and-steel 164 ClimateWorks Australia (2020) Net Zero Momentum Tracker, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/ project/net-zero-momentum-tracker/ 165 BloombergNEF (2019) Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019, https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle- outlook/#toc-download 166 McKinsey & Company (2019) Making electric vehicles profitable, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable 167 RACV (2019) How much it really costs to own an electric vehicle, https://www.racv.com.au/royalauto/ moving/news-information/electric-vehicle-running-costs.html 168 ibid. 169 McKinsey & Company (2019) Making electric vehicles profitable, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/ automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/making-electric-vehicles-profitable 170 Nottingham City Council (2020) Electric taxis, www.transportnottingham.com/driving/electric-taxis/; CleanTechnica (2020) UK Puts £3.4 Million Into Wireless Charging For Electric Taxis, https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/06/uk-puts-3-4-million-into-wireless-charging-for-electric-taxis/ 171 ClimateWorks Australia (2018) Electric vehicle ready local government fleets - Finances and vehicle availability, https://www.climateworksaustralia.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ev_ready_local_ government_fleets_report.pdf 172 Australian Financial Review (2018) Car fleets are big business in Australia, www.afr.com/news/special- reports/car-fleets-are-big-business-in-australia20180521-h10c3o 173 Electric Vehicle Council (2019) State of electric vehicles in Australia, p. 12, https://electricvehiclecouncil. com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/State-of-EVs-in-Australia-2019.pdf 174 Australia Post (2019) Our environment - Transport, https://auspost.com.au/about-us/corporate- responsibility/our-environment 175 The Driven (2018) Australia made battery packs creating SEA change towards electric trucks, https:// thedriven.io/2018/10/31/australia-made-battery-packs-creating-sea-change-towards-electric-trucks/ 176 See for example, Heliox fast-charging in Wellington NZ (2019): www.heliox.nl/projects/first-double- deck-buses-in-the-world-in-wellington-new-zealand 177 Elementenergy (2018) A Study of the Impact of Electrification of Auckland’s Bus Depots on the Local Electricity Grid, https://cff-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/storage/files/ goYZtMAiNeyBnqOAapgYh4IzuGpDjIkK0XylzEyO.pdf 178 Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) (2014) Freightline 1 – Australian freight transport overview, Australian Government, Canberra 179 Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development (2016) Trends - Transport and Australia’s Development to 2040 and Beyond, p.21, Australian Government, Canberra, www.infrastructure.gov.au/ infrastructure/publications/files/Trends_to_2040.pdf 180 Sustainable Aviation (2020) Decarbonisation road-map: a path to net zero, a plan to decarbonise UK aviation, https://www.sustainableaviation.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/SustainableAviation_ CarbonReport_20200203.pdf 181 National Geographic (2015) Corporate Responsibility Policy, https://www.nationalgeographic.org/ sustainability-policy/ 182 City of Melbourne (2018) Transport Strategy Refresh - Transport, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Air Quality, p.28, https://s3.ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/hdp.au.prod.app.com-participate. files/6615/2948/1938/Transport_Strategy_Refresh__Zero_Net_Emissions_Strategy_-_Greenhouse_Gas_ Emissions_and_Air_Quality.pdf 183 Wang, B., O’sullivan, A., & Schäfer, A. W. (2019). Assessing the Impact of High-Speed Rail on Domestic
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Aviation CO2 Emissions in China. Transportation Research Record, 2673(3), pp. 176–188. 184 International Energy Agency (2017) The Future of Rail, p.99, www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-rail 185 Beyond Zero Emissions (2014). Zero Carbon Australia: High Speed Rail, p.16 http://media.bze.org.au/hsr/HSR_web_01_medium.pdf 186 Grewe, V, Matthes, S, Frömming, C, Brinkop, S, Jöckel, P, Gierens, K, Champougny, T, Fuglestvedt, J, Haslerud, A & Irvine, E, (2017) Feasibility of climate-optimized air traffic routing for trans-Atlantic flights, Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12(3). 187 Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development (2016) Trends - Transport and Australia’s Development to 2040 and Beyond, p.47, Australian Government, Canberra, www.infrastructure.gov.au/ infrastructure/publications/files/Trends_to_2040.pdf 188 ibid, p.21 189 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2019) Navigating the Way to a Renewable Future: Solutions to Decarbonise Shipping, https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/Sep/ IRENA_Renewable_Shipping_Sep_2019.pdf 190 ibid. 191 IMO, (2019) Energy efficiency measures, http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/ PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Technical-and-Operational-Measures.aspx 192 ITF (2018) Decarbonising maritime transport: pathways to zero-carbon shipping by 2035, https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/docs/decarbonising-maritime-transport.pdf; Transport & Environment (2017), Statistical analysis of the energy efficiency performance (EEDI) of new ships built in 2013-2017, www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/Statistical%20analysis%20of%20 the%20energy%20efficiency%20performance%20%28EEDI%29%20of%20new%20ships.pdf 193 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2019) Navigating the Way to a Renewable Future: Solutions to Decarbonise Shipping, p. 16, https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/ Publication/2019/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_Shipping_Sep_2019.pdf 194 ClimateWorks (2020) Decarbonisation Futures, www.climateworksaustralia.org/project/ decarbonisation-futures/ 195 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.135. Accessed at: https://www.iea.org/ reports/the-future-of-hydrogen; Smit, R, Whitehead, J & Washington, S, (2018) Where are we heading with electric vehicles? Air Quality and Climate Change, 52, vol. 3, pp.18–27. 196 City of Melbourne (2016) Emerging transport technologies: Assessing impacts and implications for the City of Melbourne. Accessed at: www.melbourne.vic.gov.au/SiteCollectionDocuments/emerging- technologies-final.PDF 197 McKinsey & Company: Global Infrastructure Initiative (2017) Voices on Infrastructure: Navigating big disruptions in transportation, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and- infrastructure/our-insights/voices-on-infrastructure/voices-on-infrastructure-navigating-big- disruptions-in-transportation 198 Infrastructure Victoria (2018) Advice on Automated and Zero Emissions Vehicles Infrastructure, https://www.infrastructurevictoria.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Advice-on-automated-and- zero-emissions-vehicles-October-2018.pdf 199 Clewlow, Regina R. and Gouri S. Mishra (2017) Disruptive Transportation: The Adoption, Utilization, and Impacts of Ride-Hailing in the United States. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report, https://steps.ucdavis.edu/new-research-ride-hailing-impacts-travel-behavior/ 200 Union of Concerned Scientists (2020) Ride-Hailing is a Problem for the Climate. Here’s Why, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ride-hailing-problem-climate 201 For example, in 2016, 57 million Uber riders and drivers personal information was accessed by a hacker. See more: www.nytimes.com/2018/09/26/technology/uber-data-breach.html; and in 2020, freight delivery heavyweight Toll was hit by a cyber attack forcing the shut down of services to major retailers across Australia. See more: www.afr.com/technology/toll-faces-customer-fallout-after-cyber-attack- 20200214-p540s2 202 State Government of Victoria Department of Premier and Cabinet (2019) Inquiry into the Victorian On-
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Demand Workforce, https://engage.vic.gov.au/inquiry-on-demand-workforce 203 The NSW Government Future Transport Technology Roadmap states the community expects adequate regulatory and policy protections for safety, security, privacy, and market regulation, as new transport models emerge. See more: https://future.transport.nsw.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/ documents/2018/Future-Transport-Technology-Roadmap_2016__.pdf, p.67. 204 University of Sydney Business School, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (2020) Capped Uber and taxi fares to boost public transport: new survey, https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/ news/2020/04/15/capped-uber-and-taxi-fares-to-boost-public-transport-new-survey.html 205 ACT Government, Inquiry into Drone Delivery Systems in the ACT (ACT: Standing Committee on Economic Development And Tourism, 2019), https://www.parliament.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_ file/0007/1394485/9th-EDT-06-Inquiry-into-Drone-Delivery-Systems-in-the-ACT.pdf 206 LiveLighter (2019) Aussies’ growing ‘app-etite’ for convenience comes at a price, https://livelighter.com. au/news/Aussies-growing-app-etite-for-convenience-comes-at-a-price 207 ABC News (2019) Uber Air set to take off in Australia with flying taxi trial in Melbourne, www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-12/uber-elevate-set-to-take-off-in-australia/11199466 208 Smart Company (2020) Amazon launches Uber-esque delivery service in Australia, amid safety and pay criticism in the US, www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/amazon-flex-australia/ 209 International Transport Forum (2020) Safe Micromobility, https://www.itf-oecd.org/sites/default/files/ docs/safe-micromobility_1.pdf 210 Shladover, S (2009) Cooperative (rather than autonomous) vehicle-highway automation systems. IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Magazine, 1 vol. 1, pp. 10–19 211 Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) (2018) SAE International Releases Updated Visual Chart for Its ‘Levels of Driving Automation’ Standard for Self-Driving Vehicles, www.sae.org/news/press- room/2018/12/sae-international-releases-updated-visual-chart-for-its-“levels-of-driving-automation”- standard-for-self-driving-vehicles 212 Rodrigue, JR (2020) Challenges for Transport Geography, in Geography of Transport Systems, 5th Edition, New York: Routledge; see https://transportgeography.org/?page_id=10788; Intelligent Transport (2017) Austomation and the future of public transport, www.intelligenttransport.com/transport-articles/72914/ automation-future-public-transport/ 213 NSW Government (2018) Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) Trials, https://future.transport.nsw. gov.au/projects/connected-and-automated-vehicles-cav 214 Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia (2019) Innovating transport across Australia: inquiry into automated mass transit, p. 83, https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House/ ITC/automatedmasstransit/Report 215 Infrastructure Australia (2019) An assessment of Australia’s future infrastructure needs, p. 307, www.infrastructureaustralia.gov.au/australian-infrastructure-audit-2019-transport 216 Taiebat, M, Brown, AL, Safford, HR, Qu, S, & Xu, M (2018) A Review on Energy, Environmental, and Sustainability Implications of Connected and Automated Vehicles. Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 52(20), pp. 11449–11465; Gawron et al. (2018) Life cycle assessment of connected and automated vehicles. Environmental Science & Technology, vol. 52, pp. 3249−3256. 217 International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) (2017) New Mobility: Today’s Technology And Policy Landscape, p. 16. 218 Sprei, F (2018) Disrupting mobility, Energy Research and Social Science, 37, p.238-242. ‘Shared autonomous electric vehicles’ p. 241 219 Schofer, J (2017) Mass Transit. Encyclopaedia Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/topic/mass-transit 220 Roy Morgan (2019) Uber drives forward while taxis stall and new market entrants begin to accelerate, www.roymorgan.com/findings/7959-ride-sharing-uber-taxis-december-2018-201904260833 221 Victorian Government (2018) Injury into the Victorian On-Demand Workforce, https://engage.vic.gov.au/inquiry-on-demand-workforce 222 Union of Concerned Scientists (2020) Ride-Hailing’s Climate Risks, https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ ride-hailing-climate-risks 223 Erhardt et al. (2019) Do transportation network companies decrease or increase congestion? Science
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Advances, vol. 5(5), pp. 1-11, https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/5/eaau2670 224 Schaller Consulting (2019) The New Automobility: Lyft, Uber and the Future of American Cities, http://www.schallerconsult.com/rideservices/automobility.htm 225 ITS Australia (2018) Mobility as a Service in Australia: customer insights and opportunities, p.20, https://imoveaustralia.com/news-articles/personal-public-mobility/maas-australian-readiness/ 226 Rambol (2019) Insights from the world’s first Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) system, https://ramboll.com/-/media/files/rfi/publications/Ramboll_whimpact-2019 227 Çabukoglu, E, Georges, G, Küng, L, Pareschi, G, and Boulouchos, K (2018) Battery electric propulsion: An option for heavy-duty vehicles? Results from a Swiss case-study. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, vol. 88, pp. 107-123; ACT Government (2019) Partnership to bring Australia’s first plug-in hybrid electric fire truck to the ACT, www.cmtedd.act.gov.au/open_government/inform/ act_government_media_releases/gentleman/2019/partnership-to-bring-australias-first-plug-in-hybrid- electric-fire-truck-to-the-act 228 Freightliner (2020) e-Mobility, https://freightliner.com/e-mobility/; electrek (2019) Elon Musk updates Tesla pickup and semi truck timelines, https://electrek.co/2019/06/11/tesla-pickup-semi-truck-timelines- elon-musk/ 229 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 230 Geoscience Australia (2019) Prospective Hydrogen Production Regions of Australia, https://d28rz98at9flks.cloudfront.net/130930/Rec2019_015.pdf 231 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.37, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 232 Jacobs (2019) Hydrogen White Paper p. 14. 233 Bruce et al. (2018) National hydrogen roadmap, p. 39, CSIRO, https://www.csiro.au/en/Do-business/ Futures/Reports/Hydrogen-Roadmap; Infrastructure Australia (2019) An Assessment of Australia’s Future Infrastructure Needs: The Australian Infrastructure Audit 2019, https://www.infrastructureaustralia.gov. au/sites/default/files/2019-08/Australian%20Infrastructure%20Audit%202019.pdf 234 The International Council on Clean Transportation (2019) Estimating the infrastructure needs and costs for the launch of zero-emission trucks, theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV_HDVs_ Infrastructure_20190809.pdf 235 Forbes (2019) Startup Nikola bets hydrogen will finally break through with big rigs, https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/04/14/can-a-15-billion-bet-on-fuel-cell-big-rigs-be- a-game-changer-for-hydrogen/#5279b919fe4c 236 Hydrogen Strategy Group, Hydrogen for Australia’s future: a briefing paper for the COAG Energy Council (Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2018), p. 33, https://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2018/08/ briefing-paper-hydrogen-for-australias-future 237 Berger, R (2019) Study on the use of fuel cell hydrogen in railway environment, https://fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/01-Roland-Berger-Public.pdf. 238 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.167, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 239 COAG Energy Council (2019) Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy.pdf 240 US Government Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2019) Biofuels Basics, https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/biofuels-basics 241 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2017) Developments in research and certification of aviation alternative fuels: definitions, p.9, https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/knowledge- sharing/Docs/Sustainable%20Aviation%20Fuels%20Guide_vf.pdf. 242 World Resources Centre (2015) Avoiding Bioenergy Competition for Food Crops and Land, http://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/avoiding_bioenergy_competition_food_crops_land.pdf 243 International Energy Agency (IEA) (2019) Tracking Transport: Transport biofuels, https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019/transport-biofuels
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244 The Atlantic (2019) Fly Electric: The Aircraft of the Future Takes Flight, www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/thomson-reuters-why-2025-matters/electric-flight/208/ 245 International Civil Aviation Organization (2019) Electric and Hybrid Aircraft Platform for Innovation, www.icao.int/environmental-protection/Pages/electric-aircraft.aspx 246 Electro.Aero (2019) About, https://www.electro.aero/about 247 Airbus (2018) ‘The future is electric’, https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/news/en/2018/07/the-future-is-electric.html 248 The Atlantic (2019) Fly Electric: The Aircraft of the Future Takes Flight, www.theatlantic.com/sponsored/thomson-reuters-why-2025-matters/electric-flight/208/ 249 ibid. 250 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 251 Geoscience Australia (2019) Prospective Hydrogen Production Regions of Australia, https://d28rz98at9flks.cloudfront.net/130930/Rec2019_015.pdf 252 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.37, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 253 Jacobs (2019) Hydrogen White Paper p. 14. 254 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (2019) NASA Aeronautics Selects Three University Teams for Research Help, https://www.nasa.gov/aero/nasa-aeronautics-selects-three-university-teams- for-research-help/ 255 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.167, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 256 COAG Energy Council (2019) Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy.pdf 257 US Government Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2019) Biofuels Basics, https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/biofuels-basics 258 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2017) Developments in research and certification of aviation alternative fuels: definitions, p.9, https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/knowledge- sharing/Docs/Sustainable%20Aviation%20Fuels%20Guide_vf.pdf. 259 ibid. 260 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) (2017) Biofuels for aviation: technology brief, p.15, www.irena.org/documentdownloads/publications/irena_biofuels_for_aviation_2017.pdf. 261 Le Feuvre, P (2019) Commentary: Are aviation biofuels ready for take off? www.iea.org/newsroom/ news/2019/march/are-aviation-biofuels-ready-for-take-off.html 262 World Resources Centre (2015) Avoiding Bioenergy Competition for Food Crops and Land, http://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/avoiding_bioenergy_competition_food_crops_land.pdf 263 International Energy Agency (IEA) (2019) Tracking Transport: Transport biofuels, https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019/transport-biofuels 264 Australian Aviation (2019) Virgin Australia Brisbane Biofuel Trial Hits 1 Million Km Milestone, https://australianaviation.com.au/2019/06/virgin-australia-brisbane-biofuel-trial-hits-1- million-km-milestone/ 265 Queensland Government (2019) Gladstone biorefinery pilot plant gets the go-ahead, http://statements.qld.gov.au/Statement/2019/2/13/gladstone-biorefinery-pilot-plant-gets-the-goahead 266 Maritime impact (2018) Dawn of a new era, https://www.dnvgl.com/expert-story/maritime-impact/Dawn-of-a-new-era.html 267 Lambert, F (2019) World’s largest all-electric ferry completes its maiden trip, https://electrek.co/2019/08/21/worlds-largest-electric-ferry/ 268 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen
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269 Geoscience Australia (2019) Prospective Hydrogen Production Regions of Australia, https://d28rz98at9flks.cloudfront.net/130930/Rec2019_015.pdf 270 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.37, https://www.iea.org/reports/the- future-of-hydrogen; Jacobs (2019) Hydrogen White Paper p. 14. 271 Offshore Energy (2019) Flagships Project Gets USD 5.6 Mn for Two Hydrogen-Fueled Ships, https://www.offshore-energy.biz/flagships-project-gets-usd-5-6-mn-for-two-hydrogen-fueled-ships/ 272 International Energy Agency (2019) The Future of Hydrogen, p.167, https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen 273 COAG Energy Council (2019) Australia’s National Hydrogen Strategy, www.industry.gov.au/sites/default/files/2019-11/australias-national-hydrogen-strategy.pdf 274 US Government Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2019) Biofuels Basics, https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/biofuels-basics 275 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (2017) Developments in research and certification of aviation alternative fuels: definitions, p.9, https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/knowledge- sharing/Docs/Sustainable%20Aviation%20Fuels%20Guide_vf.pdf 276 American Bureau of Shipping (ABS) (2019) ABS Low Caron Shipping Outlook, p.25, https://ww2.eagle.org/en/Products-and-Services/sustainability-for-the-maritime-sector.html 277 World Resources Centre (2015) Avoiding Bioenergy Competition for Food Crops and Land, http://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/avoiding_bioenergy_competition_food_crops_land.pdf 278 International Energy Agency (IEA) (2019) Tracking Transport: Transport biofuels, https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-transport-2019/transport-biofuels 279 Maersk (2019) Towards a zero-carbon future, https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2019/06/26/towards-a-zero-carbon-future 280 Science Advisory Group to UN Climate Action Summit 2019 (2019) United in Science, https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/landmark-united-science-report-informs-climate- action-summit
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ABOUT US For further information about Moving to Zero please contact: ClimateWorks Australia is an expert, independent adviser, committed to helping MICHAEL LI Australia, South East Asia and the Pacific SENIOR PROJECT MANAGER region transition to net zero emissions by 2050. ClimateWorks Australia It was co-founded through a partnership [email protected] between Monash University and The Myer Foundation and works within the Monash PETRA STOCK Sustainable Development Institute. PROGRAM MANAGER ClimateWorks Australia ClimateWorks Australia, 2020, [email protected] Moving to Zero: Accelerating the transition to zero-emissions transport. ClimateWorks Australia Level 27, 35 Collins Street Published by ClimateWorks Australia Melbourne Victoria 3000 Melbourne, Victoria, June 2020 © ClimateWorks Australia 2020
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