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Is the European Automotive Industry Ready for the Global Electric Vehicle Revolution?

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Is the European Automotive Industry Ready for the Global Electric Vehicle Revolution? Policy Contribution Issue n˚26 | December 2018 Is the European automotive industry ready for the global electric vehicle revolution? Gustav Fredriksson, Alexander Roth , Simone Tagliapietra and Reinhilde Veugelers Executive summary Gustav Fredriksson is a former Research Assistant The automotive sector is currently at the centre of a global transformation, driven by at Bruegel four key trends: electrification, autonomous driving, sharing and connected cars. While each of these interconnected trends is already visible in daily life, their full deployment is not yet guaranteed, nor is the speed of take-up. Alexander Roth is a former Research Assistant at This Policy Contribution investigates the position of the European automotive industry Bruegel in a scenario in which electrification substantially progresses. The results are encouraging for Europe: EU companies entered late the global electric ve- Simone Tagliapietra hicle race, but on the basis of our analysis it is not yet too late for them to catch up and make (simone.tagliapietra@ the best of this change. bruegel.org) is a Research Fellow at Bruegel European car manufacturers can rely on a large internal market, long experience in automotive manufacturing and a portfolio of research and development projects and patents that is diversified across various power-train technologies. But if Europe wants to succeed in Reinhilde Veugelers the global electric vehicle race, its automotive industry will have to move into higher gear to (reinhilde.veugelers@ meet the global – notably Chinese – competition. Nevertheless, industry needs the proper bruegel.org) is a Senior framework conditions as the basis for more ambitious investments in electrification – as Fellow at Bruegel examples such as Norway or China demonstrate. This Policy Contribution formulates a broad policy framework for deployment and production of electric vehicles in Europe, combining demand and supply-side instruments. Europe cannot follow China in the adoption of centrally-planned industrial policy measures. But it certainly can and should do more to stimulate the transformation of its automotive industry through more ambitious policies. 1 Introduction The automotive sector is important for the European Union economy. Accounting for 4 per- cent of EU GDP, it employs 8 million people and ranks among the main EU sectors in terms of exports and research and development (R&D). And because of its long supply chain, the sector has a significant multiplier effect on the EU economy. Four disruptive trends are generally considered to be reshaping global mobility and con- sequently the global automotive industry: electrification, autonomous driving, sharing and connected cars. While each of these interconnected trends is already starting to be visible in daily life, their full deployment is not yet guaranteed, nor is the speed of their take-up. We focus on one of these trends: electrification. Electric vehicles (EVs) are increasingly considered a key solution to decarbonise the trans- port sector, which is becoming the main obstacle to the achievement of the EU’s vision for a climate neutral Europe by 2050 (European Commission, 2018). Road transport is responsible for about three quarters of the EU transport sector’s emissions. To meet the current EU decar- bonisation targets, transport would actually have to be completely decarbonised shortly after 2050. This creates a big window for EVs. In addition, decarbonising road transport would also be decisive for improving air quality in cities, which remains a fundamental challenge for public health in Europe. Air pollution is responsible for more than 400,000 premature deaths each year in Europe (EEA, 2016). Pollu- tion from road transport is a key contributor to this problem. EVs are increasingly being spotted on EU roads. But the real EV success story is undoubt- edly China, which has rapidly established itself as the global leader in EV manufacturing and where the internal EV market is growing exponentially. Meanwhile, Europe has lagged behind in terms of both manufacturing and deployment. We assess the position and prospects of the European automotive industry in the global EV race in a context in which the scope and speed of the ‘EV revolution’ remains uncertain. To do so, we look at automotive R&D investment and the latest available versions of patents databases. This analysis reveals an encouraging picture, in which Europe, although not a frontrunner, has not yet lost its leading position in automotive innovation. With the right continuous R&D focus in the EU automotive supply chain sector and with the right policy framework on the government side, the European automotive sector could not only meet the challenge of the global EV revolution, but even drive it forward. 2 The importance of the automotive sector for value added Value added Value added is created both in the direct and indirect automotive sectors. The ‘direct’ sector includes the manufacture of (1) motor vehicles, (2) parts and accessories to motor vehicles, and (3) bodies for motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers. The indirect sector consists of the sale of motor vehicles, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories, retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores, and renting and leasing of motor vehicles. 2 Policy Contribution | Issue n˚26 | December 2018 In the EU, the value added of all automotive sectors is considerable. In 2015, it represented almost 6 percent of overall value added, making it larger than other major sectors such as pharmaceuticals and machinery equipment manufacturing. In some EU countries (Slovakia, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Germany: henceforth the BIG4), the automotive sector accounts for more than 8 percent of their total value added (Figure 1). The indirect sector accounts for half of overall automotive value added in the EU (Figure 1). The share of the indirect sector is uniform in all EU countries and is generally the largest component of overall automotive value added. When looking at the direct sectors, the man- ufacture of vehicles generates around 2 percent of total value added in the EU. It is especially important in the BIG4. The manufacture of vehicle parts also accounts for a large amount of value added in the BIG4 and in Romania, Slovenia and Portugal. Figure 1: ShareShare of o fthe the automotive automotive sector secto inr i ntotal tota valuel valu addede add e(2015)d (2015) 12% Indirect automotive sector 10% Manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles Manufacture of bodies for motor vehicles, 8% and manufacture of trailers and semi-trailers 6% Manufacture of motor vehicles 4% 2% 0% l a k a e a a a s a s y d c a g y a a a e d d y 8 n n i a i i i i i i i i i t i m m r l r r c d l t r c u l r e n n n n 2 v k g n a n a a n n r u o u t a b t e n a a n a t a a a d i a U a u a l e p o a l d o I s l g p u o a e m t a g e g a t v v E M l l l o g u r r n e S r y m r b u n L s m r p i r n r o w o F u e P o n h C A G I u C l l e F E o e i t m e e S B B P i S H S R R h K e D G L t x h e d u c e N t L e i z n C U Source: Bruegel based on Eurostat. Note: The indirect automotive sector consists of ‘Sale of motor vehicles’ + ‘Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles’ + ‘Sale of motor vehicle parts and accessories’ + ‘Retail sale of automotive fuel in specialised stores’ + ‘Renting and leasing of motor vehicles’. ‘Motor vehicles’ include passenger cars, commercial vehicles (vans, lorries and over-the-road tractors for semi-trailers), coaches, buses, trolley-buses, snowmobiles, golf carts, amphibious vehicles, fire engines, street sweepers, travelling libraries, armoured cars, concrete-mixer lorries, ATVs, go-carts and race cars. Also included are motor vehicle engines (other than electric motors) and chassis. ‘Value added at factor costs’ is the gross income from operating activities after adjusting for operating subsidies and indirect taxes. Value adjustments (such as depreciation) are not subtracted. Employment In terms of employment, the automotive sector accounted for almost 3 percent of the EU’s la- bour force in 2015 (Figure 2). In the EU and in most EU countries, the indirect sectors account for the greatest share of automotive employment, as they include the more labour-intensive services such as sales and maintenance. Employment in the capital-intensive direct sectors in the EU is concentrated in a few countries. The BIG4 accounts for most of the EU’s direct automotive employment. 3 Policy Contribution | Issue n˚26 | December 2018 4 board firms board of score 2013-2016) (average andparts R&D expenditure 3:Automotive Figure firm onR&D. spending German scoreboard half of than more represents This R&D. scoreboard automotive ofallEU or78percent R&D, on year €35billion per German firmsspend around automotive R&D. world onautomotive 3). German firms inthe spend themost firms (Figure scoreboard European by R&D spending ofall 25percent than more to onR&Dbetweenbillion per year 2013and2016,amounting inthe listed companies tive automo European Europe. veryautomotive sector R&Din is The forcorporate important anddevelopment Research employmentcorrespondstoindividualsaged1564years. stores’ +‘rentingandleasingofmotorvehicles’.Total ‘maintenance andrepairofmotorvehicles’+‘salevehicleparts andaccessories’+‘retailsaleofautomotivefuelinspecialised accessories formotorvehicles’.‘Indirectemployment’ correspondstothenumberofpeopleemployedin‘salemotorvehicles’+ motor vehicles’+‘Manufactureofbodiesforvehiclesandmanufacturetrailerssemi-trailers’pa Source: BruegelbasedonEurostat.
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