European Integration and the Surge of the Populist Radical Right Julia Schulte-Cloos Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctorof Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Florence, July 2019 ii European University Institute Department of Political and Social Sciences European Integration and the Surge of the Pop- ulist Radical Right Julia Schulte-Cloos Thesis submitted for assessment with a view to obtaining the degree of Doctorof Political and Social Sciences of the European University Institute Examining Board Professor Hanspeter Kriesi, European University Institute (Supervisor) Professor Elias Dinas, European University Institute Professor Liesbet Hooghe, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Professor Kai Arzheimer, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz ©Schulte-Cloos, 2019 No part of this thesis may be copied, reproduced or transmitted without prior permis- sion of the author Researcher declaration to accompany the submission of written work (Department of Political and Social Science, Ph.D. Programme) I Julia Schulte-Cloos certify that I am the author of the work ‘European Integration and the Surge of the Populist Radical Right’ I have presented for examination for the PhD thesis at the European University Institute. I also certify that this is solely my own original work, other than where I have clearly indicated, in this declaration and in the thesis, that it is the work of others. I warrant that I have obtained all the permissions required for using any material from other copyrighted publications. I certify that this work complies with the Code of Ethics in Academic Research issued by the European University Institute (IUE 332/2/10 (CA 297). The copyright of this work rests with its author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This work may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. This authorisation does not, to the best ofmy knowledge, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that this work consists of 43158 words. Signature and Date: 02 June 2019 vi Abstract Does European integration contribute to the rise of the radical right? This disserta- tion offers three empirical contributions that aid understanding the interplay between political integration within the European Union (EU) and the surge of the populist radical right across Europe. The first account studies the impact that the European Parliament (EP) elections have for the national fortune of the populist right. The find- ings of a country fixed-effects model leveraging variation in the European electoral cycle demonstrate that EP elections foster the domestic prospects of the radical right when national and EP elections are close in time. The second study demonstrates that the populist radical right cannot use the EP elections as a platform to socialise the most impressionable voters. The results of a regression discontinuity analysis high- light that the EP contest does not instil partisan ties to the political antagonists of the European idea. The third study shows that anti-European integration sentiments that existed prior to accession to the EU cast a long shadow in the present by con- tributing to the success of contemporary populist right actors. Relying on an original dataset entailing data on all EU accession referenda on the level of municipalities and exploiting variation within regions, the study demonstrates that those localities that were most hostile to the European project before even becoming part of the Union, today, vote in the largest numbers for the radical right. In synthesis, the dissertation approaches the relationship between two major current transformations of social re- ality: European integration and the surge of the radical right. The results highlight that contention around the issue of European integration provides a fertile ground for the populist radical right, helping to activate nationalistic and EU-hostile sentiments among parts of the European public. viii Contents Preface 7 1 A Paradox of European Integration? 13 Culturally conservative mobilisation and discursive opportunities . 17 The institution of European Parliament elections by universal suffrage . 19 Political integration in the EU and the surge of the populist radical right . 21 2 Do European Parliament Elections Foster Challenger Parties’ Success on the National Level? 27 Electoral success for challenger parties in EP elections . 28 Domestic momentum and the effect of electoral timing . 30 Results ...................................... 35 Conclusions ................................... 42 3 The Effect of European Parliament Elections on Political Socialisation 47 First-time eligibility and electoral participation in second-order EP elections 49 Identifying the causal effect of EP elections for political socialisation . 52 Data and validity of the identification strategy . 53 Results ...................................... 55 Conclusions ................................... 60 4 The Persistence of Anti-Integration Sentiments 65 Introduction ................................... 65 2 CONTENTS Public support for the EU and politicisation of European integration . 68 Persistence of anti-integration attitudes .................... 69 The effect of initial opposition on contemporary radical right support . 74 Conclusions ................................... 78 5 Conclusion 81 Appendix 87 A Supplementary Material: Do European Parliament Elections Foster Challenger Parties Success on the National Level? 87 A.1 Parties in the analysis ........................... 87 A.2 Empirical extensions ........................... 92 B Supplementary Material: The Effect of European Parliament Elections on Political Socialisation 101 B.1 Countries and parties in the analysis . 101 B.2 Empirical extensions . 103 C Supplementary Material: The Persistence of Anti-Integration Senti- ments 113 C.1 Populist radical right parties across countries . 114 C.2 Empirical extensions . 115 List of Tables 2.1 Fixed-effects regression results of vote share in EP elections onna- tional vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle . 34 2.2 Fixed-effects regression results of EP electoral cycle on national vote share .................................... 43 3.1 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on interest inpolitics . 56 3.2 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on partisan ties tochal- lenger parties ............................... 57 3.3 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting in placebo EP elections on interest in politics ............................. 59 3.4 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on interest in politics (tiny bandwidth and long-term effects) .................... 60 4.1 Year of EU referendum, year of most recent parliamentary election and initial minimum and maximum share of opposition towards the EU by country ............................... 71 4.2 Effect of initial opposition towards the EU on contemporary populist right support ................................ 76 A.1 Parties in the analysis ........................... 87 A.2 Descriptive statistics ........................... 92 4 LIST OF TABLES A.3 Marginal effects of vote share in EP elections on national vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle ..................... 93 A.4 Placebo test: fixed-effects regression results of vote share in national election on EP vote share conditional on national electoral cycle . 95 A.5 Fixed-effects regression results of vote share in EP elections onna- tional vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (alternative model specifications I) .............................. 96 A.6 Fixed-effects regression results of vote share in EP elections onna- tional vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (alternative model specifications II) .............................. 99 B.1 Descriptive statistics of political interest across countries . 102 B.2 Parties in the analysis . 102 B.3 Descriptive statistics of covariates . 104 B.4 Balance statistics between EP eligibles and EP ineligibles . 105 B.5 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on European interestin politics ................................... 106 B.6 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting in placebo EPyearson interest in European politics . 107 B.7 Effect of EP eligibility and voting on interest in politics across different bandwidths ................................. 109 B.8 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on interest inpolitics (matched dataset) ............................. 110 B.9 Effect of first-time EP eligibility and voting on partisan ties tochal- lenger parties (alternative classification of challenger parties) . 111 C.1 Populist radical right parties across countries . 114 C.2 Number of regions and number of votes per country . 115 C.3 Effect of initial opposition towards the EU on contemporary populist right support (bootstrap) . 116 List of Figures 2.1 Binning estimates of marginal effect of vote share in EP elections on national vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (Green parties) . 36 2.2 Marginal effect of vote share in EP elections on national vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (Green parties) . 37 2.3 Binning estimates of marginal effect of vote share in EP elections on national vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (populist radical right parties) ................................ 38 2.4 Marginal effect of vote share in EP elections on national vote share conditional on EP electoral cycle (populist radical