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PAPUA NEW GUINEA ECONOMIC UPDATE Reinforcing Resilience December 2017

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PAPUA NEW GUINEA ECONOMIC UPDATE Reinforcing Resilience December 2017 WORLD BANK GROUP PAPUA NEW GUINEA ECONOMIC UPDATE DECEMBER 2017 Reinforcing Resilience PAPUA NEW GUINEA ECONOMIC UPDATE Reinforcing Resilience December 2017 Preface This is the first in a new series of twice yearly Papua New Guinea Economic Updates (PNG EU). It has two principle aims. First, it analyzes the key recent developments in Papua New Guinea’s economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments, and on recent policy changes, the PNG EU updates the outlook for Papua New Guinea’s economy and welfare of its citizens. Second, the PNG EU provides a more in-depth examination of a selected development issue, and evaluates the implications of recent trends and policy reforms in terms of the government’s stated development objectives. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Papua New Guinea’s evolving economy. The PNG EU is compiled by the Macroeconomics & Fiscal Management Global Practice, under the guidance of Michel Kerf (Country Director), John Panzer (Practice Director), Ndiame Diop (Practice Manager), and Patricia Veevers-Carter (Country Manager). The core project team comprises Chandana Kularatne, Andrew Blackman, Anthony Obeyesekere and John Grinyer. Administrative support is provided by Angela Oswyn. Dissemination is organized by Ruth Moiam. The team would like to acknowledge a background paper on PNG’s health sector provided by Laurin James. The team is also grateful for contributions and feedback from: Toomas Palu, Aparnaa Somanathan, Robert Utz, Aneesa Arur, Nicolas Rosemberg, and Ryota Nakatani. The team is grateful to the Department of Treasury, the Department of Finance, the Bank of Papua New Guinea, the Department of National Planning & Monitoring, PNG Customs Service, the Internal Revenue Commission, and the National Department of Health for their consultation, the provision of data, and their collaboration towards the development of this report. This report is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, supported by funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade through the Papua New Guinea Governance Facility. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent, or the Australian Government. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Cover design is by Lauren Cassar. Cover and chapter photographs are by The World Bank, the PNG Tourism Promotion Authority, Lauren Conor Ashleigh, Stephen Rae and Joanne Gardner. All rights reserved. For more World Bank analysis of Papua New Guinea’s economy: For information about the World Bank and its activities in Papua New Guinea, please visit www.worldbank.org/png. In order to be included on an email distribution list for this Economic Update series and related publications, please contact [email protected]. For questions and comments relating to this publication, please contact [email protected]. Acronyms APEC Asia Pacific Economic MYEFO Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Cooperation Outlook BPNG Bank of Papua New Guinea NCD National Capital District CPI Consumer Price Index NEFC National Economic and Fiscal DIRD Department of Implementation Commission and Rural Development NRPB Non-Resource Primary Balance DNPM Department of National Planning NSO National Statistical Office & Monitoring ODA Official Development Assistance DSIP District Service Improvement OECD Organisation for Economic Programme Cooperation and Development DTA Double Taxation Agreement OSPEAC Organisational, Staffing and DTP-HepB Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis- Personnel Emolument Audit Hepatitis B Committee DTT Double Taxation Treaty PEFA Public Expenditure and Fiscal EAP East Asia and the Pacific Accountability FMIS Financial Management PFM Public Financial Management Information System PHA Provincial Health Authority Gavi Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance PMGH Port Moresby General Hospital GNI Gross National Income PNG Papua New Guinea GST Goods and Services Tax PNG EU Papua New Guinea Economic HFG Health Function Grant Update HR Human Resources PNG LNG Papua New Guinea Liquefied Natural Gas IFMIS Integrated Financial Management Information System PSIP Provincial Service Improvement Programme IMF International Monetary Fund REER Real Effective Exchange Rate IRC Internal Revenue Commission SDG Sustainable Development Goals ITC Infrastructure Tax Credit SIGTAS Standard Integrated Government K Kina Tax Administration System KFR Kina Facility Rate SOE State-Owned Enterprises KPHL Kumul Petroleum Holdings SWF Sovereign Wealth Fund Limited TB Tuberculosis LNG Liquefied Natural Gas THE Total Health Expenditure MDG Millennium Development Goals USD United States Dollars MPA Minimum Priority Activities WB World Bank MRSF Mineral Resources Stabilization WHO World Health Organisation Fund MTDP Medium Term Development Plan December 2017 THE WORLD BANK III Table of contents PREFACE ............................................................................................................................... II ACRONYMS .......................................................................................................................... III TABLE OF CONTENTS ...................................................................................................... IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: REINFORCING RESILIENCE .......................................... VIII A. ECONOMIC UPDATE ....................................................................................................... 1 1. Setting the scene – resource booms and PNG’s economy .......................................................1 2. Recent economic developments .............................................................................................. 6 2.1. Economic growth ........................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2. Fiscal developments ................................................................................................................................... 10 2.3. Monetary policy and price developments .............................................................................................. 17 2.4. External sector ............................................................................................................................................ 21 3. Outlook and risks .................................................................................................................. 24 B. TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK ........ 30 1. Macroeconomic policies that are fit-for-purpose .................................................................. 30 2. Improving expenditure controls and management of mineral resource flows ..................... 30 3. Strengthening revenue performance ..................................................................................... 33 4. A sustainable debt and liability management strategy ......................................................... 37 5. Improving the functioning of monetary policy and foreign exchange market ..................... 38 6. Bringing it all together: Operationalizing an integrated macroeconomic policy framework 39 C. HEALTH SERVICE DELIVERY IN PNG ...................................................................... 41 1. The strong case for investing in health and nutrition ............................................................ 41 2. Health financing and health outcomes in PNG .................................................................... 42 3. Current challenges to health service delivery ........................................................................ 47 4. The health service delivery mechanism and the PHA model ............................................... 53 5. The way forward .................................................................................................................... 54 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 57 December 2017 THE WORLD BANK IV LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: The global commodity price cycle, 2000-2016 .............................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: PNG has experienced a similar change in its terms of trade to other commodity exporters ................ 2 Figure 3: PNG’s growth dynamics in recent years have been similar to comparator countries ............................ 3 Figure 4: Growth in the resource sector has driven overall real GDP growth volatility ........................................ 3 Figure 5: Papua New Guinea’s “two economies” ......................................................................................................... 3 Figure 6: Defining a set of comparator countries .......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 7: The PNG economy is dominated by the resource and agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors... ...... 4 Figure
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