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Communist Party of India (Marxist) International Communist Party of India (Marxist) Report on Current Developments (Adopted at the Central Committee Meeting October 30-31, 2020) A detailed report was discussed and adopted by the Polit Bureau at its meeting on September 12, 2020. This has been circulated to all Central Committee members and state committees for reporting to the Party committees. Hence the present report is confined to the post-PB important developments. International State of the Covid-19 Pandemic Confirmed Covid cases across the world have surpassed 40 million. However, experts warned that this is only the tip of the iceberg. The Johns Hopkins University, which collates global data, estimates that the figure of positive Covid cases would be far higher, as testing has been uneven or limited, many cases are asymptomatic and some governments have concealed the true number of cases. USA, India and Brazil in that order continue to report the highest number of cases and deaths. Alarmingly India’s rate of growth of both positive cases and deaths is the highest in the world today. Many countries like Britain, France, Russia, Spain etc., which are contributing highest to Europe’s recorded weekly growth of nearly seven lakhs are now re-imposing various levels of lockdown. Vaccine: The world’s most promising coronavirus vaccine candidates need non-stop sterile refrigeration to stay potent and safe. However, it is estimated that nearly three billion of the world’s 7.8 billion people live where temperature controlled storage is insufficient for an immunization campaign to bring Covid-19 under control. While the virus strikes indiscriminately, the world’s poor who are amongst the hardest hit by the pandemic are also likely to be last to recover from it. Unless overcome this will prolong the prevalence of the pandemic even when a vaccine is developed. Socialist Countries: In stark contrast, the socialist countries have been able to contain the spread of the pandemic and restart economic activity and normal life. Till October, China reported over 85,000 cases and the death of 4,634 people. Nearly 30 million party members participated 1 actively on the frontlines to battle the pandemic. 396 party members lost their lives in the process. Cuba lost 123 people due to the pandemic. Despite the US economic blockade on Cuba, the country has been able to contain the pandemic and save the lives of a large number of people. In Vietnam, so far 139 people have lost their lives and it was able to successfully contain the second wave that surged in the country. The government of Vietnam started weekly super markets for people to shop all essential commodities for free. It has also started rice ATMs where people can take rice free of cost. The DPRK continues to report zero deaths in the country, despite the recent ravage by floods and storms. The huge effort for relief and rehabilitation did not see any spread of the pandemic. The stark contrast between neo-liberal capitalism and socialism is clearly established on this score, once again, during this period. Global Economy IMF’s World Economic Outlook, October 2020: A Long and Difficult Ascent estimates the global growth rate based on market exchange rates to decline by (-) 4.7 per cent in 2020. Value of world output based on purchasing power parity growth has also declined by a similar figure. The report cautions that “the risk of worse growth outcomes than projected remain sizeable”. And further, that this recession “will reverse the progress made since 1990s in reducing global poverty and will increase inequality”. The World Bank described the current global economy as undergoing the deepest recession since the Great Depression of 1929-30. Growing People’s Miseries: According to the World Bank, by 2021, over 150 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty. Labour force participation remains well below the pre-Covid pandemic level and many more jobs are likely to be lost. According to the ILO, the global reduction in the work hours in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 was equivalent to the loss of 400 million full time jobs. This is an alarming increase from 155 million job losses in the first quarter. China: Amongst the major economies in the world, China is the only country that registered a positive growth of GDP by 3.2 per cent. This is the same quarter in which India registered a (-) 23.9 per cent GDP growth. In the next quarter, for which the figures have come, China grew at 4.9 per cent. The IMF projects that in 2020, China will register a 6.1 2 per cent growth in its real GDP while the major advanced capitalist economies will see a (-) 5.9 per cent real GDP growth decline. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, October 2020 report indicates that China has now overtaken the USA to become the world largest economy. This is the conclusion that is arrived at by the yardstick of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). According to this, China’s economy is valued at $24.2 trillion compared to America’s $20.8 trillion. However, traditional estimates made by using the normal, accepted yardstick of Market Exchange Rates (MER) shows that the USA is still the leading economy. Neo-Liberal Bankruptcy: We had noted earlier that there is no solution to this crisis under the trajectory of neo-liberalism and its economic reforms aimed singularly at maximizing profits. This has sharply widened economic inequalities. This recession has disproportionately affected the employment of women and those with relatively lower skills and qualifications. On the other hand, global billionaires have been fattening their profits even during this pandemic recession. Roughly three out of four American billionaires have seen a rise in their net worth. The Huffington Post says: “No one has benefitted from the Covid-19 pandemic more than American billionaires. 16 American billionaires are worth at least twice as much now as they were in March”. Most billionaires, however, have grown their wealth not as business leaders but as investors. This is why the recession has not impacted the stock markets negatively as expected. The stimulus packages announced by various capitalist countries have benefitted the rich corporates vastly more than the people. Since neo- liberal globalization assumed a momentum, 1980, taxes on the rich have fallen by 79 per cent. On the other hand, the class offensive against the working class and the working people sharply escalated. The trade unions that represented roughly one in four workers in 1979 in USA has declined to represent only one in ten. This is because of the large-scale informalisation of employment through various methods like outsourcing etc. After the 2008 global financial meltdown, billionaires restored their wealth in three years and doubled it by 2018. The bottom 80 per cent of income earners have still not recovered. Eleven million Americans lost their jobs between February and August 2020. This data is based on the study conducted by Columbia University researchers for the Institute of Policy Studies. This is the predatory character of neo-liberal capitalism that has 3 no solution for the economy to emerge from this crisis but imposed unprecedented miseries on the people while maximizing profits. Protests In many countries, huge popular protests have erupted against such imposition of miseries. Greece saw huge rallies across the country primarily focusing on the protection of people’s health and against attacks on livelihood. In many other countries, the issues of livelihood have merged with other issues of human and democratic rights. Thailand: Huge protest demonstrations, mostly youth, have defied prohibitory orders demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister, a former Army Chief who masterminded the 2014 military coup and redrafted the Constitution to consolidate his rule. These protests have forced the government to withdraw the State of Emergency it had proclaimed. They are seeking the withdrawal of this Constitution; abolition of draconian defamation laws; curtailing the powers and role of the monarchy to stay out of politics and greater transparency of Royal finances. Since June, massive protests have erupted in Belarus against the economic stagnation and growing people’s miseries and on their various demands related to livelihood issues and democratic rights. In Indonesia at the call of trade unions joint forum compromising 32 labour unions and federations, massive countrywide three days strike was held on 6-8 October 2020 to protest and oppose the draconian law annulling all labour rights, braving police attacks. In France, huge demonstrations took place condemning the murder of a teacher by Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist attacks. As usual, such terrorism and the efforts to fan Islamophobia are feeding each other creating a grave situation. Growing Class Offensive As we analysed in our CC and PB meetings, in this situation of the pandemic and economic recession, attacks on the rights of the working class and the working people have sharply risen all across the world. The rightward political shift continues to disrupt the growing unity of popular struggles by using emotional issues and spreading racism, xenophobia and creating an atmosphere of hate and violence. 4 In this situation, the bankrupt neo-liberal order has no other way to maximize profits than to launch an all-out offensive against the working people by sharply intensifying their exploitation. The Communist parties globally are in the midst of rallying the people in protest actions against this renewed class offensive. Aggressive US Imperialist Efforts In this background of China’s exemplary efforts to contain the pandemic and revive the economy to register significant positive growth rates, US imperialism is targeting China, that we have noted in our earlier meetings.
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