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India's Ruling Party Tumbles After State Elections

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:: Issue Analyses India’s ruling party tumbles after state elections Kim Chan-wahn Professor of the Graduate School of International and Area Studies Hankuk University of Foreign Studies ahul Gandhi, the crown prince of the Nehru-Grandhi “ family, is missing in Delhi.” Many people complained that Rahul Gandhi, the general-secretary of the Indian R National Congress, was nowhere to be seen during the elections held in February and March across five states: Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, Goa, and Uttar Pradesh. Of these five states, Uttar Pradesh is politically the most important, and it was for this reason that Rahul Gandhi risked his political career pouring all his energy into the Uttar Pradesh election campaigns. Now that the assembly elections are over, people are complaining again that Rahul Gandhi cannot be seen in Delhi. After humiliating defeat in the Uttar Pradesh assembly election revealed the severe limitations of his politics and popularity, Rahul Gandhi stopped making regular appearances at important political events. 115 Summer 2012�POSRI Chindia Quarterly ○● INC and BJP’s crushing defeats The five state assembly elections in 2012 served as a mid-term review of the current government, which is led by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), and as a barometer for the results of the upcoming 2014 general elections. There was heavy anti-incumbent sentiment in Uttar Pradesh and Goa, while the ruling party won the elections in Punjab and Manipur. In Uttarakhand, a coalition government took office through strong anti- incumbent sentiment and other factors working together. Of the five state elections, all eyes were on Uttar Pradesh, the window on Indian elections. Voter turnout increased by 14%, from 46% in 2007. This is not the only record that Uttar Pradesh state elections broke. As many as 223 parties vied for the 403 seats of the legislative assembly. The number of parties has almost doubled from 131 in the 2007 election. However, only six parties managed to take seats. Independents took 14 seats. What is notable in this election is that the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) has taken seats from the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the former ruling party. The BSP lost 126 seats from the 2007 election, while the SP won 127 new seats. As a result, political power in Uttar Pradesh has shifted from the BSP to the SP. Yadav Akhilsh Yadav, son of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh was sworn in as the chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, India’s 2012 five state election results Uttar Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Manipur Goa Ruling party SP (224) SAD (56) INC (32) INC (42) BJP (21) in 2012 Ruling party BSP (206) SAD (48) BJP (34) INC (30) INC (19) in 2007 Note: SAD (Shiromani Akali Dal), BSP (Bahujan Samaj Party) 116 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Summer 2012 :: Issue Analyses beginning a hereditary succession of politics in Uttar Pradesh. Following the Uttar Pradesh election, a two-party system with region- based parties, the BSP and the SP, has been established in Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, the nation-wide Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have suffered disappointing results. The INC gained six seats in this election; this is clear evidence of the INC’s limitations, considering that Rahul Gandhi orchestrated the election campaign from start to finish, and used all the resources of his party. The INC found itself agonizing over what stances it would take in the most important political state, Uttar Pradesh. The situation is worse for the BJP. The party lost four seats in this election. It now seems difficult to believe that the BJP once held the reins of Uttar Pradesh. The BJP, which took power under the banner of Hindu fundamentalism, has lost ground with recent failures in a series of elections, indicating that a platform based on Hindu fundamentalism is not enough to win the hearts of the Indian public. With no alternative plan in the works, the BJP has reason enough to worry. ○● Small parties with a big say As a result of the last elections, the INC’s political power and legitimacy have deteriorated. Moreover, the success of local parties in the Uttar Pradesh and Punjab elections has re-empowered small local parties, laying the foundation for these parties to grow into a third political force. The Trinamool Congress (TMC), with the second largest number of seats in the UPA-led government, after the INC, left the UPA government, and sought cooperation with other political powers. This is one factor that is intensifying worries about the potential fall of the UPA government. Following the recent election, Railway Minister Dinesh Trivedi, who belongs to the TMC, alluded to the possibility of early general elections. He underpinned early elections, saying that if he were SP chief Mulayam Singh, 117 Summer 2012�POSRI Chindia Quarterly he would prepare for early As a result of the last elections, the elections. If early elections take INC’s political power and legitimacy place, the SP is very likely to have deteriorated. Moreover, the success of local parties in the Uttar secure the largest number of Pradesh and Punjab elections has seats in Uttar Pradesh. The re-empowered small local parties. TMC also expects that early elections would help secure more seats in West Bengal, which is currently under its control. The TMC worries that if the general elections are held in 2014 as scheduled, it would be difficult to secure more seats under stronger anti-incumbent sentiment. If the TMC leaves the UPA government and the SP withdraws its support, the INC-led UPA government will likely collapse. If this possibility becomes greater, small local parties will gain more collective power, making early elections feasible. The current situation is similar to the one between 1996 and 1998, when central politics were unstable and leaders of small local parties vied for the prime ministerial post. If early elections are not realized, it is important for the INC to make wise decisions in running the government until 2014, having already lost popularity. Even if the INC secures the majority of seats in the next election, the ruling party will have to govern while keeping a constant eye on small local parties. ○● UPA’s scenarios for retaining power Given current circumstances, Indian politics could unfold in one of two scenarios: The best-case scenario for the INC is if the TMC leaves the UPA coalition government, and the SP maintains its support for the UPA; the INC would be able to operate the government stably until 2014. In this case, the INC would have to concede major central government posts to the SP in 118 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Summer 2012 :: Issue Analyses 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections results 2007 2012 Party No. of seats + / - No. of seats + / - Samajwadi Party 97 ▽55 224 ▲127 Bahujan Samaj Party 206 ▲139 80 ▽126 Bhartiya Janata Party 51 ▽32 47 ▽4 Indian National Congress 22 ▽328▲6 Rashtriya Lok Dal 10 ▽59▽1 Nationalist Congress Party - - 1 - Rashtriya Parivartan Dal 2 - - - Akhil Bhartiya Loktantrik 1--- Congress (ABLC) JD (U) 1 - - - UP United Democratic 1--- Front (UPUDF) Bharatiya Jan Shakti 1 - - - Jan Morcha 1 - - - Rashtriya Swabhimaan Party 1 - - - Independents 9 - 14 ▲5 Total no. 403 - 403 - Source: Election Commission of India, 2012 return for its support, and would have to accept that its policies must not oppose those of the SP, even in Uttar Pradesh. It would also have to support comprehensive measures for Yadavs, part of the Shudra caste, and Muslims ─the two main pillars of public support for the SP. With state elections 119 Summer 2012�POSRI Chindia Quarterly around the corner, the UPA government announced on December 22, 2011 that it would include Muslims in the Other Backward Classes (OBC) and allocate 4.5% of jobs to them. The Hindu-fundamentalist BJP was stringently opposed to this decision. However, the SP offered pledges favorable to the poor, as did the UPA: job allocation for minorities, including Muslims; prohibition of land expropriation opposed by farmers; and provision of low interest rates, about 4%, to small farmers. The worst-case scenario is if the TMC leave the UPA government, and the SP wants to have early elections. If this happens, the current UPA government is highly likely to collapse. In order to prevent this situation, the INC is meeting all requests from the TMC, even the most baseless requests. For example, when the government announced the railway budget, which included an increase in passenger fares, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee demanded the withdrawal of the fare hike and the resignation of the Railway Minister, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh acquiesced. For the time being, the TMC will likely remain in step with the UPA coalition government, and the SP will implicitly cooperate with the INC, and the current UPA government is expected to last at least until the end of 2012. However, if the INC, which leads the UPA coalition government, is completely defeated by opposition parties in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh state assembly elections, which are scheduled to be held at the end of 2012, the UPA government will very likely collapse. ○● Difficult land expropriation for development With the political season around the corner, many parties are advocating grassroots policies. Therefore, India’s economic policies will become even more grassroots-friendly, seeking inclusive growth for the poor. Due to the outcome of the recent elections, the possibility is high that expropriation of land owned by farmers at the declared land price will become more difficult. Oppressive land expropriation was an important 120 POSRI Chindia Quarterly�Summer 2012 :: Issue Analyses factor in the complete defeat of the BSP in the recent Uttar Pradesh election.
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