EaP Think
№31 December 2020 Bridge Eastern Partnership мonthly analytical digest
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP IN THE NEXT DECADE: FOCUS ON GEORGIA, MOLDOVA AND UKRAINE
The consolidation of existing successes and setting new ambitious objectives for 5 to 10 years need further sustained commitment from both the EU and its EaP partners. EaP Think Bridge
Issue 31 December 2020 Eastern Partnership in 2020: Pandemic, Political Crisis and War EaP Think Bridge is a platform uniting 2020 has been a challenging year for the Eastern Partnership. expert communities The countries require quite some time to recover from the in the countries of consequences of the pandemic for the health care system Eastern Partnership region to fillthe and the economy and, perhaps, without the support of foreign gap in distributing partners, including the EU, they will not recover any soon. analytical products for stakeholders Armenia and Azerbaijan will have to start anew the diplomatic The project benefits path to normalizing relations after a destructive 44-day war. from support through the EaP Civil Society Belarus takes a socio-political crisis to the new year, and way out of it is Forum Re-granting nowhere to be seen. Scheme (FSTP) and Georgia is also in a political stalemate after controversial elections and with is funded by the a one-party parliament that can hardly boast of the popular support. European Union as After prolonged political battles, Moldova is full of optimism and is pinning part of its support high hopes on the new president. And yet the country will face another round of to civil society in the political battles, this time for the parliament. region. Within its Re- Ukraine yet again loses in the fight against corruption. As a result, the gov- granting Scheme, the ernment loses the support of its own citizens and international partners. Eastern Partnership And in such a situation, the Eastern Partnership is looking for new horizons Civil Society Forum for development and new goals for the next decade. Before the EaP summit, (EaP CSF) supports which is to be held in the spring of 2021, experts have identified such goals for projects of its members the three countries - signatories of the Association Agreement with the EU. that contribute to How was December and this year for the countries of the region and what achieving the mission awaits them in the coming year experts analyze in our digest. and objectives of the Forum. Grants are available for CSOs from the Eastern Partnership and EU countries. Key areas of support are democracy and human rights, economic integration, environment and energy, contacts between people, social and labour policies.
Contacts: [email protected]
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 2 Contents
Analytica Eastern Partnership in the Next Decade: Focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 4 Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE) December 2020 in review Azerbaijan: All Efforts to Ensure Karabakh Recovery 9 Turan Information Agency (Baku, Azerbaijan) Crisis in Post-War Armenia 12 Richard Giragosian, Regional Studies Center (Yerevan, Armenia) Belarus: Lukashenko Threatens with NATO Invasion, COVID-19 Pandemic on the Rise 15 Vadim Mojeiko, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) (Minsk, Belarus) Georgia: One-Party Parliament 17 Lasha Tughushi, Liberal Academy Tbilisi Foundation (Tbilisi, Georgia) Moldova at Crossroads 19 Ludmila Nofit, Foreign Policy Association of Moldova (Chisinau, Moldova) Ukraine: 2020 Controversial Results in Politics and Epidemic 21 Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism ”
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 3 Analytics Eastern Partnership in the Next Decade: Focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine The EU demonstrated continued commitment to deepening its relationship in particular with the three EaP partners implementing Association Agreements. Nevertheless, the consolidation of existing successes and setting new ambitious objectives for 5 to 10 years need further sustained commitment from both the EU and its EaP partners. Considering the lessons learned from the previ- Redouble efforts on the unfinished business of ous decade, experts from the EU, Georgia, Moldova strengthening institutions of democracy, the rule of and Ukraine believe that for the next 5 to 10 years law and the fight against corruption throughout the key deliverables for the EU and three associated EaP EaP area, in line with societies aspirations. states will need to advance along the following key Take the EaP into policy areas which it covered less priorities: so far, but which are absolutely key to the future of The EU should use the occasion of the next 2021 the Eastern Partnership states in areas such as se- EaP Summit to reconfirm its clear acknowledge- curity and the environment. ment of the European aspirations of the three asso- EU has dispatched in 2020 a timely emergency ciated EaP countries processes, pursuant to Article response to COVID-19 pandemic in the Eastern 49 of the Treaty on European Union, which provides Partnership amounting to over 1 billion EUR in the for that any European state may apply to become a framework of the EU’s “Team Europe” package sup- member of the EU provided that it adheres to the EU port. The EU should consider a flexible, tailored and standards of democracy and rule of law. comprehensive Investment and Economic Recovery Three associated EaP partners should further Plan for the EaP countries. strengthen their strategic dialogue with the EU over While implementation of necessary reforms re- desirable policy and systemic developments. The as- quires a consistent and strong political will of the sociated EaP partners should be invited to selected pro-reform elites in the partner countries, the EU’s meetings of the EU Council and EU working parties. role in supporting those reforms is indispensable by Consolidate the existing EaP achievements and offering incentives of trade liberalisation, providing aim at full implementation of the Association Agree- assessments of the draft legislation and supporting ments and comprehensive integration of Georgia, creation of functional institutions. The Europeanisa- Moldova and Ukraine into the EU’s Single Marked tion is a shared strategic goal of the EU and aspiring based on the four freedoms. EaP partners.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 4 KEY POST 2020 EAP DELIVERABLES: 1. Security: A Stronger, more ests. Preventing illicit acquisition of weapons, am- munition, and explosives (particularly in warzones Geopolitical Europe and uncontrolled areas), preventing their smuggling We endorse the launching of an EaP Security Com- abroad, foiling financing and money laundering on pact: an initiative bringing together EU funds and behalf of terrorists and other illegal armed groups institutions with the capabilities of the EU member is still an uphill task for the EaP states. They require states willing to boost security cooperation with EU’s cooperation described above under the EaP Security neighbours. Such an initiative would only be open to Compact. willing and interested EaP states. Certain EaP states remain interested in joining The EU member states with EU institutions’ the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) pro- support can be advance to capacity-building pro- gram. In this respect, the EU legal basis should be grammes, structural coordination on threats, tech- amended on order to allow partners to join the pro- nical support (particularly on cross-border SIGINT), gram with equal rights and opportunities. and military intelligence for in-depth reform of these The EU and selected EaP partners could also de- services. velop ‘soft’ military cooperation – changing educa- Creating an Eastern Neighbourhood Intelligence tion, training, organisational procedures, military Support and Coordination Cell within EEAS, that will planning, doctrine, tactics, etc. Many EU member operate as both a group to coordinate assistance (like states would be willing to boost such ‘soft coopera- the support group) to the EaP countries, but also to tion’, but such efforts could be significantly scaled up facilitate practical exchange of intelligence between if the EU could dedicate parts of its neighbourhood the EU and EaP countries. Creating intelligence-li- funding to such ‘soft’ defence cooperation: admitting aison offices in Tbilisi and Chisinau would be impor- officers from EaP countries to the military Erasmus tant. programme, offer EU funding for Eastern Partner- The other field in need of attention is cyber-securi- ship officers to study in military academies across ty. All EaP countries have reformed or newly created the EU at various stages of their careers, providing cyber-security institutions (cyber-incident response experts to revise military education and training in teams - CERT, cyber-forensic departments and spe- EaP countries, are relatively cheap measures. cialised departments within police and intelligence One very specific measure would be for the EU to agencies) in the past years. However, these institu- fund 50 scholarships each year for mid-career se- tions remain under-resourced. The EU should help curity, defence, intelligence or law-enforcement per- to build capacity and develop cooperation with these sonnel from Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. institutions. Such cooperation could include mutual Launch a specialised joint EU-EaP security plat- intelligence sharing and learning on cyber threats, form dedicated to countering hybrid threats. The assistance in the areas of securing governmental EU should support EaP partners to develop and communications and critical infrastructure, as well implement national mechanisms for an effective as joint cyber exercises. In this regards, we welcome early-warning and early-response to security hybrid the launching the EU-Ukraine cyber dialogue and threats. call on the EU to launch similar platforms with Geor- gia and Moldova. 2. Environmental and climate The EU should strengthen and deepen its secu- resilience: Green Deal for Eastern rity dialogue formats with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The EU should complement its CSDP mis- Partners sions in Georgia and Ukraine with CSDP operations The new green deal is highly relevant for both the and further support the EUBAM Mission to Moldova EU and the three associated EaP states. EaP should and Ukraine. An EU Advisory Mission (EUAM) in Mol- be a part of this Initiative and ensure its successful dova should also be launched. This will boost the implementation with active participation of the civil EU’s prestige as formidable geopolitical actor and society and other non-state actors. strengthen the resilience and risk-mitigation capaci- The EU should launch and support a series of pro- ties of local societies. jects which help the environment, raise awareness Opening the way for interested EaP partners to of environmental concerns and increase EU visibility. work within the European Union Agency for Network We propose two such schemes: and Information (ENISA) and the EU Rapid Alert could The Euro-bicycle: in cooperation with local town- be a significant step forward for the cooperation be- halls, the EU could co-finance the creation of bike- tween the EU and interested EaP countries. sharing schemes in the first 5 biggest cities of each Counterterrorism is another area where the EU EaP state. The bikes could be blue with yellow stars and the EaP countries have ample common inter- and could be a symbol of European support to eco- EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 5 friendly mobility, and an almost omni-present ad- by the EU with Georgia and Moldova, as well as fu- vertisement for the EU. Of course, this should be ture updates to the EU-Ukraine Association Agenda matched with support for better bicycle infrastruc- should be a timely occasion to reflect more targeted ture. and tailored joint short- to medium-term priorities to The Euro-Charger: a similar approach could be deliver on good governance, rule of law and demo- adopted regarding the installation of chargers for cratic reforms. electric cars to the biggest towns in the EaP, as a way to facilitate transition to greener cars. The EU financ- Accountable institutions ing the installation of 300 (blue and yellow) plugs in The three associated EaP countries continue to Kiev, 100 each in Chisinau, Tbilisi would be a visible face challenges in establishing state institutions free green and innovative signal. Connecting these plug from political interference. The EU with the support satiations to solar energy installations will be yet an- of the Council of Europe has to monitor and guide other step forward. genuine and measurable reforms to create independ- EaP countries could also be a source of renewable ent and accountable state institutions (e.g. prosecu- power: Georgia has potential to develop even further tor offices, other law-enforcement authorities and hydrodynamic power-stations, while in Ukraine and anti-corruption agencies). For this, the EU has to of- Moldova biogas, solar, wind-power and hydrogen, es- fer clear sets of benchmarks and provide regular as- pecially in Ukraine, have considerable potential. sessments of their implementation. The EU should open to the three associated and Such assessments should be accompanied with willing EaP partners the participation in the EU’s more political and financial support to countries Hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe and delivering positive results, and economic or politi- European Clean Hydrogen Alliance. cal conditionality for those lagging behind (e.g re- Make sure that the EU and EaP associated coun- programming financial assistance to civil society and tries develop a common approach on the Carbon other non-state actors). Of particular importance Border Adjustment Mechanism, which will be one of will be also to work on strengthening parliaments as the key elements for Green Deal, in order to avoid oversight institutions. negative impact on trade relations between EU and EaP countries. Rule of law At the same time, some EaP countries (i.e. Ukraine) The EU has been developing new instruments to aim to move away from the coal industry but lack ex- strengthen the Rule of Law mechanisms in the EU perience and mechanisms to ensure a just transition. member states, such as comprehensive Justice In this respect, the switch from coal industry to re- Scoreboards as well as the Rule of Law reports to newables requires the EU support. monitor performance across the EU. Thus, it will be One of the key priorities should be to double ef- timely that the EU launches Justice Scoreboards for forts on promoting education on the needs of green the EaP or Justice Dashboards similar to the Euro- changes and changing the societies’ behavioural pean Commission for the Efficiency of Justice (CE- patterns so that there is demand for green policies. PEJ) Working Group on Western Balkans, which will Thus, the EU should focus on supporting coopera- measure the actual state of play in justice sector to tion of governments and civil society and insisting on monitor the state of reforms. greening of school curricula. The EU should help the EU associated EaP coun- To address the structural weakness of state in- tries to carry out pre-emptive legal screening and stitutions responsible for implementation and over- self-assessments to identify gaps, set new ambitious sight of the green agenda, the post-2020 deliverables policy interventions and link them to the smart, tai- should be geared towards institutional strengthen- lored and targeted conditionality of the EU funding. ing, better implementation and monitoring of the en- There is a need for a reinforced cooperation among vironmental legislation with an effective participation the EU and EaP countries’ law enforcement agencies of the civil society. namely in the field of asset recovery, financial crimes and high-level corruption. Also, cooperation on cryp- 3. Accountable institutions, judicial tocurrencies legislative framework and tracking of reform and rule of law unlawful and hybrid activities funded by money laun- dered via cryptocurrencies in the breakaway regions Reforms in these areas require smarter, more tai- in all three associated EaP partners need to be ex- lored and more targeted conditionality from external panded. As these often fund disruptive operations in actors like the EU. the EU and EaP countries linked to elections or dis- Relevant Annexes to the Association Agreements information undermining the democratic fundamen- on cooperation in the area of Justice, Freedom and tals of the European societies. Security should be upgraded and detailed. Initiate an institutional dialogue between the new The new Association Agendas currently discussed European Public Prosecutor Office (EPPO) and the EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 6 fraud investigation bodies from EaP countries on engagement, transparency and accountability as key high-level corruption cases and misspent EU money principles of governance in the EaP. in this region. The brain-drain and demographics must be seri- Make actual use of the anti-fraud cooperation ously tackled in the EaP countries. Diasporas based provisions enshrined in the Association Agreements in the EU contain a strong intellectual and/or human with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. Create the legal resource component that is increasingly lacking in basis for OLAF (European Anti-Fraud Office) to con- EaP countries effort to secure the Europeanisation duct on-the-spot checks and inspections on the use process. of the EU money. EU should encourage and support structured The EU could also consider supporting (financially dialogues on implementation of circular migration and politically) the establishment of independent an- schemes and linking EaP countries’ diaspora in the ti-corruption agencies (similar to NABU in Ukraine) EU to the good governance agenda. and ensure cooperation of these agencies with OLAF and other relevant EU agencies. 5. Resilient, sustainable and The EU could make greater use of sanctions to tar- integrated economies get corruption and corrupt practice via visa bans and account freezes on individuals reasonably believed to It is in the shared interest of the three associated be personally responsible for serious human rights EaP states and the EU to continuously boost trade by violations. lowering non-tariff barriers and furthering the in- There is a high need for an „OLAF” for the EaP tegration of the three associated EaP countries into countries. EU must get involved into investigation of EU’s single market. Full liberalisation of trade should systemic frauds taking place Georgia, Moldova and be the goal, with immediate priority for the EU to Ukraine but having ramifications in some EU mem- eliminating all tariff quotas for key exports, not least ber states as well. Examples abound, leading into tomato paste, apple juice and starch for Ukraine; and banking systems, real estate related money launder- plums, grapes juice and apples for Moldova. To elimi- ing schemes etc. It would be a further tool of deepen- nate non-tariff barriers for agriculture commodities, ing association. recognition of the equivalence of sanitary and phy- The EU could help EaP countries pursue asset re- tosanitary measures should be likewise promoted. covery efforts, not least in countries like Moldova or Full integration into EU’s Single Market is the next Ukraine, where fugitive former country leaders have logical step of deepening economic integration. Es- amassed and expatriated significant fortunes. This tablishing jointly by the EU and three association EaP help can even take the form of hiring international countries a Roadmap on the gradual and tailored ac- lawyers and companies to pursue such efforts. cession to the four freedoms during the next 10 years should be a key deliverable. 4. Resilient, fair and inclusive Conclude Agreements on Conformity Assessment societies: A people-centric EaP and Acceptance of Industrial Products (ACAA) with Moldova, Ukraine (and other willing countries), sub- Time and again the civil societies of the EaP states ject to a positive assessment of national institutional have proved that they are longing for major changes and regulatory frameworks by the EU. on the way they have been governed so far. Political Effective implementation of the recently updated events in recent years in almost each EaP state have Annex XXVII (on energy) to EU-Ukraine AA, with its been testimony for a strong desire for more democ- provisions on strengthened monitoring, provides a racy, more political pluralism, accountable govern- model for other sectors. ments, and a stronger fight against corruption. The three associated countries should be invited More financing and strong EU diplomatic support to join the European Agency for the Cooperation of is all crucial to strengthen these trends. We therefore Energy Regulators (ACER). think it is important for the EU to scale up financing Integration of the willing EaP states into the Eu- for NGO and the independent media and to continue ropean Network of Transmission System Operators applying strong conditionality to all the governments for Electricity (ENTSO-E) and European Network of of the region. These needs to focus on the support of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO- the professionalization of the civil society, strength- G) will provide significant mutual benefits. Above all ening the institutional capacities of think-tanks via this refers to an increased level of competition, free targeted institutional funding and simplified financial cross-border electricity trading and high reliability support tools for grassroots CSOs (eg. re-granting). of energy system as well as energy diversification. The support of the media should be focused on grow- There is a need of technical guidance and financial ing the critical thinking in the public and avoid any assistance to support the gradual integration of Mol- form of politicization of the media landscape. dova and Ukraine into EU’s energy market. EU should also insist on citizens participation and On energy security, the EU’s Energy Union should EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 7 include the three associated countries (which are mutual recognition of electronic trust services that also participants of the Energy Community). One of will facilitate trade and economic cooperation by al- the key goals would be the shift of the point of gas lowing cross-border e-services, recognition of e-sig- delivery to the Ukrainian-Russian border for the new nature and digitalization of services. generation of long-term contracts of EU companies Granting an internal market treatment by the EU with Gazprom. in the telecommunications services sector should Deeper liberalization of services should also be follow a positive assessment of the state of national promoted: liberalization of telecommunications, legislation’s harmonisation with the EU acquis. transport services, postal services could significantly Movement towards further integration into the increase the trade and business relations. EU’s Digital Single Market should provide for oppor- As envisaged by the EU-Ukraine Association tunities for the interested countries to join the EU’s Agreement, a special agreement on road transport digital, research and ICT innovations policies, pro- services should be negotiated. There should be vis- grammes and initiatives – inter alia, the European ible progress towards liberalisation of transport ser- Open Science Cloud, the European High Performance vices between the EU and the associated countries. Computing Joint Undertaking, the Coordinated Plan Investing in infrastructure that connects should on Artificial Intelligence, and deployment of secure also remain a key priority. The extension of the 5G telecommunication networks. TEN-T core networks for the three associated coun- EU is set to adopt a Digital Service Act updating the tries would allow for greater mobility and increased e-Commerce Directive aiming at strengthening the transport opportunities for development of econom- EU’s Single Market for digital services and foster in- ic relations. EU aid to infrastructure development novation and competitiveness of the European online projects should envisage not only loans but also environment. In this regards, looking at the gradual grant support, accompanied by proper accountabil- integration into the EU’ Digital Single Market, three ity monitoring. associated EaP countries should adopt national acts The inclusion of the inland waterways in the TEN-T to enable everyone to participate in the digital world; network plays a special role for Ukraine and the pos- to limit take-down requirements to content that is sible assistance needed from the side of EU in order clearly illegal; to ensure transparency on how online to make it functional and viable. platforms function; to ensure availability, accessibil- The bottlenecks for intensified bilateral movement ity and effectiveness of redress mechanisms for un- of people and goods on EU-Ukraine and EU-Moldova justified decisions by the digital services. land border should be removed by signing and im- This digital integration should be based on har- plementing bilateral agreements on joint border monisation of legislation on personal data protection controls between Ukraine and the Republic of Mol- (including GDPR, other EU acquis and relevant CoE dova and the neighbouring EU member states. Open- conventions), with necessary EU support. ing new joint border crossing points is an important Inclusion of the three associated countries into deliverable. the EU’s Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI) Another long-talked about measure is the accept- will help to summarise their digital performance and ance of selected EaP states into the Single European track the evolution in digital competitiveness. Payment System, which might bring wide benefits for people who travel and do business in the EaP and EU countries. It could also address some key issues, like money laundering and banking transparency. SEPA The Non-Paper is distributed to the atten- expansion to the EaP could be done through an ini- tion of the European External Action Service tial assessment, followed by Action Plans like in the (EEAS), European Commission (DG NEAR), case VLAPs. The Action Plans should include condi- European Parliament, EU member states and tionalities on combating money-laundering (harmo- Foreign Ministries of Georgia, Republic of Mol- nized with conditions put already by IMF or agreed dova and Ukraine. in Moneyval of CoE) linked with technical assistance and financial rewards for rapid and efficient imple- The drafting process of the Non-Paper was mentation of their provisions. facilitated by the Institute for European Poli- cies and Reforms (IPRE) in cooperation with 6. Resilient digital transformation partner think-tanks from the EU, Georgia, Mol- The EU should accelerate the abolition of roaming dova and Ukraine, following an online Brain- fees between the EU and its Eastern Partners, on a storming Session on the “Eastern Partnership bilateral basis. in the next decade: towards new ambitious An important step is to conclude agreements on deliverables a focus on Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine” held on the July 9, 2020.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 8 Crisis in Post-War Armenia Richard Giragosian, Regional Studies Center (Yerevan, Armenia) The Armenian government continued to face a lingering domestic political crisis, as the opposition maintained its demands for the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his government and new elections. With tension rooted in Armenia’s unexpected military defeat in the war for Nagorno- Karabakh, the Armenian government finally seemed to accept the necessity of fresh elections, although Pashinyan remained defiant in refusing to resign. And despite continued tension since the forced Armenian acceptance of a Russian-imposed ceasefire, Armenia received valuable new financial assistance from the EU and the IMF to help manage the COVID-19 crisis and offset the serious economic downturn from both the pandemic and the war.
Opposition protests in Yerevan Photo: RIA Novosti / Asatur Yesayants
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 9 DOMESTIC POLICY Armenian President and Prime is hobbled by a “deep crisis.” In recent days, several government officials have publicly accepted the ne- Minister Meet to Discuss Domestic cessity for fresh elections, tending to confirm rumors Political Crisis of secret talks between the pro-Pashinyan “My Step” bloc and some opposition parties over the timing of In a meeting late on December 24, Armenian Pres- an early election. ident Armen Sarkissian and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan discussed the lingering political crisis in Prime Minister Clarifies Border the country and focused on “the safety and defense Demarcation Issue of Armenia’s border communities” and “security challenges.” The rather rare meeting between the Speaking at a Cabinet meeting on December 24, country’s two most senior leaders follows a recent Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that effort by the president to broker a political compro- “there is no demarcation process on the borders of mise over his call for new elections within a year that Armenia,” but rather, an adjustment to “certain bor- included a series of meetings between Sarkissian der points” between Armenia and Azerbaijan. As part and various political figures and parties. As part of of the 9 November Russian-imposed agreement that his efforts to meet with leaders of the opposition, halted the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan one of the president’s more controversial meetings, regained control over several districts formerly held on December 10, was with former President Robert by Armenian forces, including parts of Karabakh it- Kocharian, angering many observers. Seeking to self. And after Azerbaijani forces moved into these surpass the inherent limits of the largely ceremonial areas, a new demarcation and delineation of the bor- and symbolic presidency, Sarkissian has emerged as der areas between Armenia and Azerbaijan began on an ambitious figure, going well beyond his advocacy December 18, resulting in a dispute over two contest- for new elections by backing opposition demands ed Armenian villages straddling the adjusted border for Pashinyan’s resignation, arguing that Armenia in southern Armenia. ECONOMY Armenia Received More EU IMF Approves New Loan to Armenia Coronavirus Aid In a statement released on December 12, the Inter- national Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the planned On December 23, the European Union announced disbursement of a new $37 million loan tranche des- a fresh grant to Armenia of 24 million euros to fi- ignated to help Armenia manage the coronavirus pan- nance Armenian efforts to combat the coronavirus demic and deal with the resulting economic downturn. pandemic. The additional aid is to specifically focus As part of a larger $443 million IMF Stand-By Arrange- on supporting the Armenian government’s “health- ment approved in May 2020, this new loan installment care and anti-crisis measures for vulnerable groups brings the total amount of IMF aid to Armenia to about and businesses affected by COVID-19” and is part $332 million for this year alone. The Armenian govern- of a larger 92-million-euro aid package to Armenia ment also plans to seek an additional $540 million in that the EU approved in April 2020. The aid follows an loans to offset a major decline in tax revenues and re- earlier disbursement of roughly 60 million euros this mittances and to help finance measures to overcome year, which was also devoted to bolster “economic the pandemic. The IMF is projecting a steep economic reforms, preserve jobs and small businesses and decline of more than 7% in GDP for 2020, ending three promote inclusive growth.” years of consecutive growth, with meager growth of around 1% in GDP for next year. FOREIGN POLICY Rights Ombudsman of Karabakh, reported on De- Karabakh Official Reports on Missing cember 23 that roughly 40 Karabakh civilians remain Civilians unaccounted for more than a month after the 9 No- vember Russian-crafted ceasefire agreement halted Reflecting both the urgency of the return of pris- the war over Karabakh. Beglaryan called on Azerbai- oners and the frustration over Azerbaijan’s delays jan to provide information on their fate and reiterated in resolving the issue, Artak Beglaryan, the Human the pressing need for the return of all prisoners, both EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 10 military and civilian. The issue was further enflamed Russia to end its strict coronavirus-related entry ban by the recent disclosure by Azerbaijan that two elderly on Armenian citizens. Pashinyan noted the discrep- Karabakh civilians died in captivity after Western me- ancy of the entry ban, which is not in effect for citizens dia outlets confirmed the authenticity of videos that of any other member state of the Russian-dominated documented Azerbaijani soldiers beheading the two Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU). With estimated elderly men. In a report from December 3, Human tens of thousands of migrant workers forced to re- Rights Watch also names a number of similar videos turn to Armenia after Russia imposed tight lockdown of mistreatment and torture of Armenian prisoners restrictions in March, the travel ban has only added of war, which, it argued, provided ample evidence of to the economic downturn in Armenia. The prime the “inhumane” treatment of Armenian soldiers and- minister also reiterated Armenian demands calling confirmed that Azerbaijani soldiers “subjected these for the creation of a single energy market that would prisoners of war (POWs) to physical abuse and hu- lower the cost of Russian natural gas imported by Ar- miliation.” menia and other EaEU members. Russia has refused the request for uniform energy tariffs for the EaEU, Skirmish Erupts in Nagorno-Karabakh although Armenian consumers pay higher prices for Armenia criticized Azerbaijan for violating a Rus- gas than those in Russia and other EaEU states, and sian-imposed ceasefire agreement after Azerbaijani Russian President Vladimir Putin is demanding that forces launched an assault on Karabakh Armenian Armenia and Belarus must first agree to even deeper positions in two remote villages in southern Nagorno- economic integration through a “single budget and Karabakh on December 12. The skirmish, in which system of taxation” for all EaEU member states. six Karabakh Armenian soldiers were wounded, trig- Armenia Rejects Azerbaijani Territorial Claims gered the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the In an official response to public claims by Azerbai- area, who later diffused the situation. The incident jani President Ilham Aliyev on December 10 arguing came as Armenian Defense Minister Vagharshak that much of Armenia consists of “historical Azer- Harutiunyan was meeting in Moscow with his Rus- baijani lands,” Mane Gevorgyan, the spokeswoman sian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. In the days following for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, de- the skirmish, a diplomatic delegation from two of the nounced the statement as a move that only under- three OSCE Minsk Group mediators, France and the mined regional peace and stability. The Azerbaijani United States, returned to the region with meetings president’s inflammatory claims, voiced at a mili- in Baku and Yerevan on December 14-15, seeking to tary parade in Baku attended by Turkish President begin preparations for a Recep Tayyip Erdogan, return to diplomatic ne- were matched by equally gotiations in order to fo- bellicose rhetoric from cus on stability and secu- Several government officials Erdogan that praised rity in the new post-war have publicly accepted the Enver Pasha, one of environment. the leading architects necessity for fresh elections, of the 1915 Armenian Armenia Calls tending to confirm rumors of genocide. In addition to on Russia to End the Turkish president, secret talks between the pro- nearly 3000 Turkish sol- Travel Ban Pashinyan “My Step” bloc and diers also marched in In a statement on De- the Azerbaijani parade, cember 11, Armenian some opposition parties over which Erdogan hailed as Prime Minister Nikol the timing of an early election “showing our unity” with Pashinyan appealed to Azerbaijan.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 11 Azerbaijan: All Efforts to Ensure Karabakh Recovery Turan Information Agency Azerbaijan plans reviving the freed territories in Karabakh in 2021.
Azerbaijanis are celebrating the victory in the streets. Photo: korespondent.net DOMESTIC POLICY Azerbaijan Sums Up the 44-Day War According to the ministry of defense, Azerbaijan lost 2802 soldiers. The ministry reported that 40 peo- When the Lachin district was returned to Azerbai- ple are still missing in action while the search contin- jan on December 1, the timetable for withdrawing Ar- ues. 60 more casualties are waiting to be identified. menian military forces from the occupied territories On December 4 at 12:00 local time a one-minute of Azerbaijan was complete. The timetable was out- silence was announced on the entire territory of the lined in the trilateral statement of the presidents of country to honor those who died during the war. Azerbaijan and Russia, as well as the prime minister According to Aliyev’s presidential decree, from of Armenia overnight on November 9-10. now on September 27 (the day when military opera-
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 12 tions started) will be commemorated in Azerbaijan ed of ruining Armenian gravestones at a cemetery in as Memorial Day to remember those who died in the Khojavend district. national war, while November 8 (the day of liberating At the same time, on December 11 a group of po- the town of Shusha) as Victory Day, which will also be litical party leaders and heads of civil organizations an official holiday. in Azerbaijan as well as representatives of Azerbai- On December 10 a victory parade took place in jani diaspora turned to international community with Baku that included over 3000 military servicemen, a call to secure withdrawal of Russian “peace-keep- up to 150 pieces of military equipment including ing” forces from Azerbaijan. They pointed out that new military equipment, missile launchers, artillery the deployment of Russian “peace-keepers” after 44 pieces, air-defense systems, warships and cutters. days of war was done violating international rules as The parade also included demonstrating some of the the Russian forces were deployed without UN man- trophies, i.e. military equipment captured during the date. Moreover, they called on international commu- war. nity to exclude Russia and France from co-heading On December 11 the parliament of Azerbaijan the OSCE Minsk Group for brutal violation of their adopted the decree of the head of the state on ending obligation to remain neutral mediators. martial law and war-time state in the country start- Military success resulted in a switch to a softer do- ing from December 12. mestic policy. In fact, on December 7 the Sabail dis- On December 14 Azerbaijan and Armenia conduct- trict court of Baku changed the sentence for house ed prisoner exchange in accordance with the prin- arrest for 15 people detained during the army protest ciple “all for all”. On the same day, the Prosecutor in Baku in July 2020. This criminal case features 37 General’s office reported the detention of four Azer- people, with 36 of them arrested and 15 of them be- baijani soldiers suspected of mutilating the bodies of ing the members of the opposition party, Azerbaijani dead Armenian solders in the course of battles on Popular Front Party. the territory of Zangilan district, as well as suspect- ECONOMY the socio-economic concept of reviving the freed ter- Karabakh to be Revived by Contractors ritories of Azerbaijan. According to the minister, the from Friendly Countries document will be submitted to the top decision-mak- ers after being thoroughly discussed. Based on this In December Azerbaijan started planning recover- concept, legal, financial and economic subsidies will ing infrastructure on the freed territories. On Decem- be adopted and implemented. ber 21, the government submitted 2021 state budget According to him, some recovery efforts have al- draft to the parliament of the country. The ministry ready been made when it comes to new roads and of finance reported that a special feature of the state railways. budget is its focus on recovery works on the freed However, the authorities announced that some territories as well as on creating social, economic, work may also be done by companies from those energy, communal, transport infrastructure and en- countries that demonstrated a friendly attitude to suring better living conditions and business activities Azerbaijan during the war. On December 18 the pres- for those citizens that return to their lands. The state ident of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev addressed the Coun- budget draft includes 2.2 billion manats (1.1 billion cil of the Heads of States of the CIS. He reported that euros) to spend on recovery efforts on the freed ter- the first contract was already signed with the Turkish ritories. company and the second one is going to be signed Mikayil Jabbarov, Azerbaijan’s minister of econ- with a company from Italy. Aliyev also called on com- omy reported that relevant institutions within the panies in former CIS countries to be more active in government of the country have already developed applying for contracts. FOREIGN POLICY failed. On December 18 both diplomats were in Brus- Azerbaijan’s Offer of Cooperation with sels, but the leading diplomatic officials of Azerbai- Armenia jan and Armenia refused to have a meeting. Josep Borrell confirmed that the European Union com- In December an attempt was made by the High pletely supports the format of OSCE Minsk group and Representative of the European Union on Foreign expects co-heads to continue negotiations on com- Affairs Josep Borrell to arrange a meeting with the prehensive and consistent conflict resolution. heads of MFA of Azerbaijan and Armenia; however, it In December the president of Azerbaijan Ilham Ali- EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 13 yev offered cooperation come to an end, we have to Armenia. On Decem- The special feature of the 2021 to move on and put an ber 10 Aliyev had a joint end to this feud”, Aliyev press conference with state budget is its focus on said. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, December saw further the president of Turkey, recovery works on the freed aggravation of relations with Aliyev stating that a territories in Karabakh between Azerbaijan and new platform for cooper- France, with the reason ation should be created behind being the resolu- in the region. tion on protecting Christian communities in Europe “All countries in the region participating in ?build- and East and Armenian people adopted by the Nation- ing? this platform will only win. There is traditional al Assembly of France on December 3. The resolution cooperation between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Geor- followed military developments in Karabakh, with gia, there is cooperation between Azerbaijan, Russia Azerbaijan and Turkey being criticized as a result. and Iran, as well as between Turkey, Russia and Iran. Moreover, MPs advised the government of France We can consolidate all these platforms, uniting all of to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent them into one. If the government of Armenia makes republic. As a result, on December 4 the French am- the right conclusions after the war, gives up their bassador in Baku Zachary Gross was summoned to groundless claims and looks into the future, they can the MFA of Azerbaijan where he was handed a note of also become a part of this platform. We are open to protest. The same reaction followed similar resolu- this. The hostility between the two countries should tions adopted by Belgian and Dutch parliaments.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 14 Belarus: Lukashenko Threatens with NATO Invasion, COVID-19 Pandemic on the Rise Vadim Mozhejko, Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (BISS) (Minsk, Belarus) The government is increasing taxes while admitting budget deficit, street protests are decentralized, and the EU adopts the third package of sanctions.
Protests in Minsk on December 13 Photo: Associated Press DOMESTIC POLICY Decentralization and Routine Protests their number already being up to 1000 throughout the country. Law enforcement is still acting violently, Even though street protests no longer gather hun- however, they are not able to efficiently counteract dreds of thousands of people in one place as seen decentralized protests. in summer, , they do not stop. In order to secure the Under such conditions the authorities are moving safety of the participants protests are now complete- to legal repressive measures. Harsher punishment ly decentralized, decisions on the format and time for taking part in mass events is introduced, while of protests are made in local Telegram-chats, with going abroad is limited. Amendments to the law on EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 15 state service provide for the alignment of civil serv- gions with critical growth of new cases. However, ants with military servants. The bill on foreign agents he is quite frequently seen there without a mask. To may be adopted as well. fight coronavirus medical students are being em- At the same time coronavirus epidemic is on the ployed full-time, while planned medical treatment is rise. Masks are mandatory to wear in public places put on hold in Minsk. (while there is still no punishment for breaking this Both hot issues of 2020 domestic policy, namely rule). Alexander Lukashenko used to ignore this is- the socio-political crisis and mismanaged COVID-19 sue, but now he is visiting hospitals in different re- epidemic, remain with Belarus in 2021. ECONOMY 30. Starting January 1 base value will go up in Bela- Holes in the Budget to be Filled at the rus, with all customs and fines growing as a result. Expense of the Population Despite all these measures, there is a deficit in 2021 Belarus budget, and it makes up EUR 1.3 billion. The national debt of Belarus grew by 29.3% since The epidemic and socio-political crisis provide for the beginning of the year. With weak economy and a combined attack on many sectors of private busi- lack of options to get foreign loans, Belarusian au- ness, first and foremost on HoReCa and tourism with thorities are trying to fill the holes in the budget at tourism export decreasing by 98% in April-November the expense of the country’s population. Reformat- and lack of tools to help tourism in the plan of urgent ting the pension system has measures to assist domestic been announced, which in fact and inbound tourism adopted means cutting pension guar- by the Cabinet of Minister. antees. The tax for IT special- Both hot issues of 2020 Due to political reasons, in ists that has previously been domestic policy, namely 2020 Belarus was deprived fixed at 9% for 50 years, may of an opportunity to attract be increased to 13%. On av- the socio-political international loans and also erage tax rates and rates of crisis and mismanaged wasted its previously gained levy are planned to go up by victories including stable do- 5.5%. Going abroad by car COVID-19 epidemic, mestic market and the first (now banned completely) is remain with Belarus in steps to diversify energy sup- planned to be subject to a ply. 2021 growth areas are charge of approximately EUR 2021 nowhere to be seen. FOREIGN POLICY Javier Solana, NATO’s former Secretary General as The EU Sanctions on the Rise well as held a telephone conversation with Pedro On December 17, the EU Council adopted the Sanchez, the prime minister of Spain self-isolated at third package of sanctions including 29 surnames the time. and 7 entities. More had been expected, however, Alexander Lukashenko took part in the session of the fourth package is already being discussed. Even the Collective Security Council and mentioned fur- Switzerland joined the EU sanctions. The US Sen- ther build-up of NATO and USA military contingent ate approved the Belarus Democracy, Human Rights on the borders aiming to occupy Belarusian territo- and Sovereignty Act. The representatives of Belaru- ries and annex some part by Poland. No support from sian opposition received the 2020 Sakharov Prize for other leaders of the countries of Collective Security Freedom of Thought. Treaty Organization was given to Lukashenko. Svitlana Tikhanovskaya met Frank-Walter Stein- Svitlana Tikhanovskaya will start 2021 visiting meier, the president of Germany; in the course of her Canada and the USA with attending Joe Biden’s inau- visit to Brussels she had meetings in the European guration. As for Alexander Lukashenko and his MFA, Parliament and in the European Commission. Later tensions are expected to rise in their relations with on, she had a working visit to Spain where she met the West while negotiations with Russia are not going with Arancha Gonzalez Laya, the head of MFA, and to be easy either.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 16 Georgia: One-Party Parliament Lasha TUGHUSHI, Liberal Academy Tbilisi (Georgia) The newly elected parliament of Georgia went into action - without opposition representatives. Although it has enough votes for the MPs to make decisions, a one-party parliament will undoubtedly damage the country image in the international arena.
Parliament of Georgia holds session without opposition Photo: Vano Shlamov (AFP) DOMESTIC POLICY Without Opposition but Already with The main requirement is early elections due to fal- sification of the autumn voting results. The opposition the Government believes that by entering parliament it recognizes the On December 11, the parliamentary majority rec- legitimacy of the election results. A significant num- ognized the powers of the newly elected parliament. ber of opposition deputies (54 out of 60) announced 90 out of 150 mandates in the main legislative body of their intention to leave their deputy mandates. They the country belong to one party, the pro-government formally applied to the parliament to terminate their “Georgian Dream”. Eight parties, none of which at- powers. Six deputies did not submit such applica- tended the parliamentary session, won the remain- tions. This small group has a different position, al- ing 60 seats. Moreover, the opposition intends to though they have not yet decided unconditionally on completely abandon its mandates, leaving the ruling entering the parliament. Besides, based on an op- party alone in a one-party parliament. position parties appeal to the Central Election Com- EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 17 mission (CEC), electoral However, a one-party party-lists were nullified. The parliament already parliament is a serious The multi-round talks political disadvantage for mediated by the US and approved the new government Georgia, which claims to EU ambassadors did not and can pass new laws, apply to join the EU by stop, albeit they gave no 2024. Besides, there are results. Negotiations pe- although the available votes some other risks named riod seems to expire in are not enough to amend the both by the ruling and February 2021 when the opposition parties. Part- spring session starts and Constitution ner countries’ represent- the parliament is forced atives explicitly demand to comply with the ap- from the parties to reach peals. The parliament already approved the new gov- an agreement. ernment and can pass new laws, although the avail- The final OSCE/ODIHR report on the results of the able votes are not enough to amend the Constitution elections is not available yet. According to the pre- - this requires 2/3 of the votes or 100 mandates. liminary estimates, despite the fact that the mission Many international leaders already sent their con- recorded some significant errors, fraudulent elec- gratulations to the newly appointed prime minister. tions are out of the question. ECONOMY globally, which in its turn will facilitate the exchange Positive Forecasts for 2021 of goods. The Budget Office of the Georgian Parliament pre- Besides, they expect that in 2021 the tourism sec- dicts economic growth for the coming years, accord- tor will slightly revive, and the change even to some ing to which the Georgian economy will grow by 5.2% small extent will lead to an increase in exports and in 2021. imports of services correspondingly. According to the The office’s forecast rests upon several assump- ministry, starting from the second quarter of 2021, tions, like, in 2021, the market participants can be the Georgian economy will recover faster than in oth- better adapted to the pandemic and the so-called er countries. Nevertheless, the forecasts certainly “value chain” will be restored both domestically and depend on the situation with the pandemic. FOREIGN POLICY treaty concluded by Moscow with the occupation re- Russian Border Claims gimes of Sokhumi and Tskhinvali, including the so- The Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed a called “state borders” issues, will be illegal and void. new special envoy for demarcation and delimitation The issue of delimitation and demarcation of the of state borders with the CIS countries. According to state border between Georgia and the Russian Fed- some Russian media reports, this position was taken eration cannot be put on the agenda until Russia de- by Mikhail Petrakov, who will also lead the Russian occupies Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali region of Geor- delegation at the multilateral negotiations on the gia in full compliance with the ceasefire agreement Caspian Sea. As it is stated in the decree on his ap- of August 12, 2008 and changes its illegal decision on pointment, M. Petrakov will be responsible for “de- the so-called recognition of the occupied territories’ marcation and delimitation of state borders of the independence. At the same time, any such treaty will Russian Federation with the Republic of Abkhazia, be taken by the international community as anoth- Georgia, and the Republic of South Ossetia.” er aggressive attempt by Russia to practice forcible The Press and Information Department of the change of sovereign borders in Europe.” Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “any
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 18 Moldova at Crossroads Ludmila Nofit, Foreign Policy Association of Moldova (Chisinau, Moldova) 2020 has sorely challenged Moldovan citizens with the ongoing pandemic pushing the society to adapt to the upcoming tendencies. The 2020 being an electoral year provided certain optimism for Moldova and its foreign partners with the newly elected president Maia Sandu who stands for the European development vector. Beyond the international sympathy and support addressed toward Sandu, there is a lot to do so as to bring Moldova back to the rule of law,recover trust of its strategic partners, and most importantly to come up with a pandemic recovery plan as soon as possible to avoid financial collapse. Since there is no majority support in the present Parliament for President Sandu and her ambitious agenda, snap parliamentary elections in 2021 seem to be the only solution as the pandemic recovery path looks to be long-term and difficult.
Maya Sandu during the inauguration of the presidency of Moldova, December 24, 2020 Photo: Bogdan Tudor (AFP)
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 19 DOMESTIC POLICY Igor Dodon’s Inheritance for Maia feat was to figure out a backup plan through the de facto ruling coalition formed of his Socialist party, Sandu Șor party and the turncoats from democrats “For The year 2020 leaves a political and social-eco- Moldova”. Hence, on December 16 a controversial nomic crisis along with exhausted healthcare system package of bills, infringing all legislative procedures and resumed farmers’ protests. The pandemic crisis and hindering rule of law principle was voted by this management failed in Moldova so far, mostly because coalition, undermining the financial sustainability of of political factor interference in healthcare system at Moldova. In addition, the Chicu Government resigned the onset of the pandemic. The number of confirmed on December 23 before the Parliament could exam- Covid-19 cases is increasing and has reached over ine a vote of no confidence on the day when Dodon’s 139 thousand. Lack of coherent response, miscom- presidential mandate ended. President Maia Sandu munication and misbehavior from top to down as well officially took office on the next day, and now she is as discredited ex-president Igor Dodon, all resulted running the table. Subsequently, she invited all par- into the loss of credibility for Moldovan leadership. liamentary fractions for consultations starting from Nevertheless, the election of Maia Sandu as the new December 28, as the Presidential institution webpage president of the Republic of Moldova offers new pros- published. Obviously, the recent Dodon’s movements pects for the country. are his ace in the hole for future snap parliamentary Dodon’s priority after presidential elections de- elections. ECONOMY tate a speedy recovery”. Controversial Laws Put IMF Support at Thus, the controversial bills approved on Decem- Risk ber 16 on Moldova’s macrofinancial, healthcare and social sectors will have negative impact. These laws The pandemic crisis generated disproportionate put at risk the future programs with the IMF and economic effects on different social groups and en- the World Bank, which would reverse the progress trepreneurs, according to financial experts. The most achieved so far in key areas for the country’s financial affected are micro and small businesses with less fi- sustainability. In the end, lowering the retirement nancial management experience. Women, young and age, tax exemption for specific tobacco products, en- older people have been more exposed than men to abling new market for mobile and online drugstores layoffs, reduced working hours and earnings. Farm- or the abrogation of the billion law (the mechanism ing, HoReCa, transport sectors, and domestic trade to recover money from the one billion theft dollar) are have been drastically affected in terms of incomes. of populist and malign nature and will only deepen According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pandemic consequences. The National Bank Gover- estimation so far the Moldovan authorities provided nor also warned about the harmful effects of the bil- less support toward its citizens and business sector lion law repeal such as damaging relations with the as anti-crisis measures package in comparison with IMF, limiting foreign funding opportunities, weaken- other countries from the region (the total amount of ing national currency, and leading to inflation etc. On about $300 million from the budget while in Romania December 22, the Constitutional Courtsuspended the – $13,5 billion of dollar, in Ukraine – $4,8 billion). The parliament’s decision to abolish the billion law after World Bank analysts forecast that a double shock of the appeal of the “Pro Moldova” MPs group. Likewise, 2020 will lead to severe recession and Moldova’s real the budget law for 2021 was contested at the Consti- GDP will shrink by 7.2% in 2020, hence “more effec- tutional Court by the Action and Solidarity party. tive and better-targeted support is needed to facili- FOREIGN POLICY and Romania, which have been put on hold for the A New Phase in the Moldovan Foreign last four years. Obviously, the quality of these part- Policy Course nerships to a great extent depends on political con- figuration of the future Moldovan government and The election of pro-European president Maia San- parliament. du created new opportunities to relaunch the collab- During the former president mandate, Moldova oration with the West, and first of all to resume the followed Dodon’s rather pro-Russian agenda slid- relationships of Moldova with its neighbors Ukraine ing away from his declared “balanced foreign policy” EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 20 principle. Even so, there were litical figures, lack of proper no substantial achievements progress in justice reform and addressing important issues Moldova’s partnerships fighting corruption, and no re- in the field of social, trade, with neighbors and sults in billion theft investiga- energy or security sectors be- tion led to the EU’s fatigue. The tween the two countries after the West will to a chief of EU Delegation to Mol- all. Surprisingly now we might great extent depend on dova underlined that as Cov- witness a shift in Chisinau’s id-19 raised many challenges, cooperation with Moscow, political configuration and Moldova will have to par- as president Sandu empha- of the future Moldovan ticipate in the competition sized the need for construc- for funding, use all available tive relationships between the government and chances and achievements, two states, as well called for parliament. leaving in the past everything withdrawing Russian military that held it back on the path of troops from Transnistrian re- reforms. gion. However, the Transnistrian settlement might be Another priority is defense and security sector. far from a top priority since the pandemic and eco- Some experts suggest that president Maia Sandu nomic crisis seriously affected the entire country in- “will have to overcome the fixed perception that col- cluding the region. There is no genuine political will laboration with NATO could lead to war.” Enhancing in this regard as well. cooperation with NATO and other important regional The country’s relationship with the EU is still con- and international organizations will enable Moldova ditioned by the implementation of the EU-Moldova to act as an international subject being a “provider” Association Agreement agenda. Fragile democratic instead of “consumer” in regional development. state institutions, narrow interest of obscure po-
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 21 Ukraine: 2020 Controversial Results in Politics and Epidemic Sergiy Gerasymchuk, Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Kyiv, Ukraine) The hottest issues in Ukrainian society last year were fighting COVID-19 and attacking corruption infrastructure, with its partial leveling present sometimes. While the COVID battle is being fought in the hit-and-miss mode, ruining anti-corruption institutions by the team in power and its satellites was quite successful.
Zelensky at a meeting of the Verkhovna Rada Photo: 24 Channel
DOMESTIC POLICY
Saving Private Tatarov, Political Tatarov, the president’s deputy chief of staff, that he Cheating, Staff and Budget Battles was a suspect in a case with a corruption compo- nent (involvement in schemes with apartments for December witnessed the ever ongoing list of cor- National Guard). This story had a sudden twist. One ruption scandals. On December 18 NABU (National week later the Prosecutor General’s office changed Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine) informed Oleg investigative jurisdiction and handed this case from EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 22 NABU over to Ukraine’s head of the state remained Security Service. Let us re- National Anti-Corruption indifferent to such calls mind that top level corrup- and signed the bill. tion in Ukraine is handled Bureau of Ukraine informed The parliament also by NABU, Specialized Anti- the president’s deputy witnessed fervent budget Corruption Prosecutor’s and staff battles. In mid- Office (SAP) and High An- chief of staff that he was December the deputies ti-Corruption Court. SAP, a suspect in a corruption adopted the main finan- in its turn, stated that the cial document in the coun- Prosecutor General’s office case try. Let us remind that the does not have such pow- deadline for adopting the ers. Such actions are go- country’s budget, accord- ing to result in further negative consequences both ing to Ukrainian legislation is December 1. It is worth on the domestic (as they undermine public trust to noting that the ruling mono-majority secured only authorities and anti-corruption institutions) and on 225 votes out of the minimal number of 226 needed the international arenas. The Prosecutor General’s in order to adopt the bill. Office created a precedent, which basically means Staff decisions in the parliament were also made that almost any corrupt person from any echelon of after borderline voting. On December 17 the Verk- power may be let off the hook. It is worth noting that hovna Rada appointed Serhiy Shkarlet to be acting the corruption scandal in the office of the head of the Minister of Education and Science, even though the state did not have any consequences for Oleg Tatarov profile committee did not support this candidate and himself. Moreover, the person involved still carries reported this twice (he was accused of plagiarism). out his duties. Yuriy Vitrenko wasn’t as lucky. He was considered the The parliament wasn’t sitting back and doing noth- most likely candidate for a deputy prime minister and ing in December either. At the beginning of the month concurrently an energy minister. It looks like his high a law on restoring criminal liability for lying in elec- salaries and bonuses in Naftogaz weren’t forgotten, tronic declarations was adopted. However, the MPs with his efforts behind Ukraine winning in Stockholm decided to turn to political cheating. The Criminal arbitration court against Gazprom’s appeal being not Code of Ukraine got a new chapter on limiting liberty up to the liking of some pro-Russian political forces. for providing false information instead of previous However, this was not the end of the story with Yuriy punishment of imprisonment. Alexander Novikov, the Vitrenko’s appointment. On December 21 the Govern- head of the National Agency for Prevention of Cor- ment, sidestepping the Parliament, appointed Yuriy ruption, called on the president to veto the bill. The Vitrenko as acting Ukrainian energy minister. ECONOMY pharmaceuticals and seafood in the revised list of Hopes and Disappointments goods within the Association Agreement. According to the reports provided by the ministry of Moreover, Kyiv intensified its dialogue with Bejing. economy, overall, the year was not bad. Instead of the In the course of the fourth meeting of the intergov- planned UAH 400 million (around $14 million) from ernmental commission on cooperation in Decem- privatization of state property the revenue made up ber, China and Ukraine agreed on joint cooperation UAH 2,5 billion (approximately $89 million). In some to fight COVID-19 pandemic and establishing deep- cases property prices increased by over 300% at auc- er relations within the Belt and Road Initiative. It is tions. It is expected that there will be even more in- worth noting that the Ukraine-China Intergovern- come from more large-scale privatization – almost mental Commission on Cooperation previously had a $500 million. meeting in December 2017. Ukraine also made an agreement with the Europe- However, against the backdrop of general opti- an Union on signing ACAA agreement (the so-called mism it is quite alarming that both in November and industrial visa-free regime) on some types of products December the Ministry of Finance did not allow the with added value: low-voltage equipment, electromag- State Treasury to make payments under unprotected netic equipment, machines and mechanisms. Goods categories that is a sign of deficit in a state treas- produced in Ukraine under these categories and certi- ury. The Pension Fund also remains subsidized, with fied by a Ukrainian market control body will be able to its deficit making up approximately UAH 26 billion get to EU market without additional barriers. (around $1 billion) in 2021 and plans to compensate In early 2021 Ukraine will also initiate including this gap using the state budget.
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 23 FOREIGN POLICY Better Relations with Moldova and ing with NATO ministers of foreign affairs via secure communication lines. This resulted in a statement Constant International Support that NATO is going to be more involved in security in Contrary to the country’s domestic political arena, the Black Sea region. The North Atlantic Alliance is its international agenda was not turbulent. The lead- also going to involve third countries in these matters, ing part in December foreign policy developments was including Ukraine. played by the head of Ukrainian diplomacy Dmytro American support is ever-present when it comes Kuleba. At the beginning of the month the country’s to Ukraine. At the plenary session of OSCE ministe- main diplomat had a working visit to Moldova. In the rial council Stephen Biegun, US Deputy Secretary of course of bilateral meetings including one with Maia State, stated that Russian aggression against Ukraine Sandu, Moldova’s new president-elect, both parties and the occupation of Crimea is a serious violation pledged mutual ever-present support when it comes of international law in Europe. According to the top to sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Ukrain- American official, the biggest task is to keep Ukraine ian minister also invited Maia Sandu to pay an official among the priorities. Romanian partners also did visit to Kyiv and join the Crimean platform – a Ukrain- their part. In the course of the same OSCE meet- ian initiative calling on the country’s allies to develop ing, Bogdan Aurescu, the head of Romania’s MFA, extensive dialogue on the issues of de-occupation expressed his concerns on the significant amount of of the Crimean peninsula. Such kind of warming-up military equipment on the contact line in the East of in relations between Ukraine and Moldova was only Ukraine. The Romanian minister also noted that his possible after the political change that took place as country supports efforts on reaching a stable politi- a result of presidential elections, when pro-Europe- cal conflict resolution respecting the sovereignty and an Maia Sandu became President following bluntly territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internation- pro-Russian Igor Dodon. ally acclaimed borders. In early December the head of MFA held meet-
EaP Think Bridge, №31, 2020 24 EaP Think Bridge
INITIATIVE BY: Foreign Policy Council “Ukrainian Prism” (Ukraine) is a network-based non- NGO Promotion of Intercultural Cooperation (PIC) is a non-govern- Project is governmental analytical center, the goal of which is to participate in providing democraticmental, groundnon-profit for developing organization and aiming implementation to promote of foreigninternational and security coop- implemented by policieseration by governmentand intercultural authorities dialogue. of Ukraine, The goalimplementation of PIC is to of raise international aware- and nation-wide projectsness in and different programs, groups directed (youth, at improvementstudents, business, of foreign journalists, policy analysis state and expertise, enhancementand local ofauthorities, expert community academics, participation etc.) on inthe a decision-making issues of international, process in the spheres of foreignintercultural policy, relations,international global relations, and local public socio-political diplomacy. problems. www.prismua.org http://ngopic.org.ua/
Supported by: The project benefits from support through the EaP Civil Society Fo- SUPPORTED BY: rum Re-granting Scheme (FSTP) and is funded by the European Union as part of its support to civil society in the region. Within Supported by the itsEuropean Re-granting Union andScheme, the International the Eastern RenaissanceFoundation Partnership Civil Society within theFo- framework of the rumCivic (EaP Synergy CSF) Project supports and projectsunder the of auspices its members of the thatUkrainian contribute National to Platform of the Easternachieving Partnership the mission Civil Society and objectives Forum. of the Forum. www.civic-synergy.org.uahttps://eap-csf.eu/ Network The Baku AcademyCenter for of InternationalLegal Initiatives Law and(Azerbaijan) Human Rights is an (Azerbaijan) independent is a centerlegal Foreignfor teaching Policy and research Council in public “Ukrainian international Prism” law and human (Ukraine) rights law, is awith network- the aim of INfounded PARTNERSHIP by: basedfurthering nongovernmental thethink scientific tank basedstudy of thein analytical Azerbaijan. legal aspects center, Theof international overall the aimgoal law ofand of the whichhuman organiza rights is to in- Azerbaijan. The Academy conductstion academic is promoting legal research rule and of policy law, studies good and governance, organizes training and programs demo- and expert meetings. Besides,participate it concentrates in providing on 2 branches democratic of international ground law that relatefor todeveloping public international and WITH: craticlaw, strengthening values, as human wellimplementation asrights assisting protection, to andthe of developing Europeanforeign national andintegration security human processes rights policies protection in theby system. governmentcountry. www.legal.org.azwww.hra.az authorities of Ukraine, implementation of international and nation-wideThe Center for projects Economic and and programs,Social Development directed (Azerbaijan) at improvement is a lead- ofing foreign Azerbaijani policy think analysis tank specialized and expertise, in economic enhancement and social ofpolicy expert is- communitysues working participation with and establishing in a decision-making bridge between the processgovernment in andthe the various representatives of civil society. The Center was set up in 2005 Belarusianto promote Institute research for and Strategic analysis into Studies domestic (BISS) economic is an independ and social- issues for the purposeent think-tank,to positively influencefounded the in public2007 bypolicy a group decision-making of leading processes. scientists www.cesd.az and civil activists. BISS’s mission is to provide a holisctic picture of socio-political processes in Belarus based on empiric studies. https://belinstitute.com/Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies (Belarus) is a non-governmental non-profit independent think tank, The Regional Studiesthe mission Center of (Armenia)which is to ispromote an independent the opportunities think tank for based in Armenia.the The Republic RSC conductsof Belarus ain wide the international range of strategic arena by analy ana-- lyzing internationalsis processes, and objective and developing research, programs implements and aprojects. number of educational and www.csfps.by policy-related projects, and develops policy initiatives aimed at bol- stering political and economic reform and conflict resolution in the broader SouthThe Caucasus foundation region. Liberal Academy Tbilisi (Georgia) is a non- governmental, nonprofit organization, committed to pro- The foundationmoting Liberal core Academy democratic Tbilisi values, (Georgia) supporting is peace-buildinga nongovern- mental, nonprofitand organization,European and Euro-Atlanticcommitted tointegration promoting and core with dem that- ocratic values,fostering supporting the democraticpeace-building development and European of Georgia and and Euro- the whole Southern CaucasusAtlantic region. integration and with that fostering the democratic develop- www.ei-lat.ge ment of Georgia and the whole Southern Caucasus region. www.ei-lat.ge
ForeignForeign Policy Policy Association Association (Moldova) (Moldova) is Moldova’s is Moldova’s leading leading foreign foreign policy think-tank,policy think-tank, committed committed to supporting to supportingMoldova’s Europeanization, Moldova’s Europeani integra-- tionzation, into integrationthe European intoUnion the and European a viable settlement Union and of thea viable Transnistrian settle- conflict.ment of the Transnistrian conflict. www.ape.md www.ape.md
EaPEaPEaPEaP Think ThinkThink Think Bridge,Bridge, Bridge,Bridge, №1, №5,№31,№9, 20182018 202020191. 262325