JICA’s Approach of Climate Change and Adaptation Towards wise management of water and land We are twins in Asia What is JICA ? Japan International Cooperation Agency

Official Development Assistance (ODA) Reform: New JICA start in Oct. 08

GrantGrant Aid Aid MOFA GrantGrant NewNew Technical bilateral Technical bilateral AssistanceAssistance JICAJICA assistanceassistance JICA October, ODAODA YenYen loansloans 2008 - JBIC

multilateralmultilateral internationalinternational assistanceassistance organizationsorganizations Contents

1. Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership 2. Adaptation strategy for Climate Change in Water Sector inside Japan 3. JICA’s Approach on Climate Change 4. JICA’s support to adaptation measures in highly vulnerable countries, regions, and areas ¾ Nepal: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) ¾ Tuvalu: Project Formulation in Climate Change ¾ Philippines: Water and land management ¾ Kenya: Community-based adaptation ¾ Capacity Development 1. Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership 1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership -Halving Global Emissions by 2050-

MOFA 1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership -Providing support on a scale of US$ 10 bill.-

MOFA 1.Cool Earth 50 and Cool Earth Partnership -Supporting efforts to reduce emissions while achieving growth

Up to US$ 2 billion Developing Transfer Japanese Up to US$ 8billion technology and Assistance for adaptation & countries Assistance for promote GHGs improved access to clean energy (according to mitigation policy dialogue) emission reductions at global level Grant aid Vulnerable (e.g.) Improving energy “Cool Earth countries efficiency of power ODA loan” Technical generation (US$4.5billion) Assistance

Assistance through International Contribution international organizations (Note 1) Eligible countries organizations to ODA loan Adaptation, and improved Other public funds

Projects Private sector activities access to clean energy. and funds To promote sustainable JBIC development Encourage private finance and promote NEXI (e.g.) technology transfer Forest conservation, (Note 1) Japan will also make efforts NEDO to create a new multilateral fund together disaster management, (Note 2) etc. rural electrification by solar Other funds with US and UK, and call on other donors to join it. and small hydro (Note 2) New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization 2. Adaptation Strategy in water sector for Climate Change in Japan 1. Present conditions Japan is vulnerable to climate change in Japan

Kinki Region: Osaka Kanto Region: Tokyo A

y S Ikebukuro a h s i

e n Station n Ueno R a

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Station v a

iver S e Kameido

aki R u R

Kanz Ka r n m da i

Amagasaki Ri Station v

vei d r e

Shin-Osaka Station r

Station Tokyo a

Shinjuku Kinsicyo R

Old Edo River

Station i Station Station v

e r River Ara Shibuya Osaka Station Neya River Shibu Station ya Ri Yodo River M ver Osaka Castle e Hirano gu ro Tennouji Station River R Toneiv River er

Elevation Elevation

3m – 4m 3m – 4m 1m – 3m 1m – 3m 0m – 1m 0m – 1m About 50% of population and about 75% of property -1m – 0m -1m – -1m – 0m -1m – on about 10% of land lower than water levels in rivers Water Area Water Area during flooding 2. Impacts of Climate change prediction models heavy rains

気候変動の予測を行うモデルResolution of climate change prediction modelsの解像度は年々進歩 has been improved year by year.

ＩＰＣＣ１次報告書（１９９０）IPCC First Assessment Report (1990): Horizontal水平解像度 resolution of 約 about500km 500 km

ＩＰＣＣ２次報告書（１９９６）IPCC Second Assessment Report (1996): Horizontal resolution of about 250水平解像度 km 約250km

IPCCＩＰＣＣ３次報告書（２００１） Third Assessment Report (2001): Horizontal水平解像度 resolution of 約 about180km 180 km

ＩＰＣＣ４次報告書（２００７）IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007): Horizontal resolution of about 110水平解像度 km 約110km

GCM20GCM20 and RCM20:、RCM20 Horizontal resolution of about 20 km ※メッシュの大きさを表現したもので、実際のメッシュ箇所とは関係ないMesh sizes are simply indicated regardless of actual mesh locations. 水平解像度 約20km Prediction model 河川局作成in this study 2. Impacts of Estimation of increased rainfall by region heavy rains

Future rainfall amounts were projected as a median value in each region of

Average rainfall in 2080-2099 period Average rainfall in 1979-1998 period ② The above equation was obtained based on the ① maximum daily precipitation in the year at each survey point identified in GCM20 (A1B scenario).

① Hokkaido 1.24 ④ ② Tohoku 1.22 ③ ③ Kanto 1.11 ⑧ ⑤ ④ Hokuriku 1.14 ⑥ ⑤ Chubu 1.06 ⑨ ⑥ Kinki 1.07 ⑦ ⑩ Legend Southern Kii ⑦ 1.13 ⑪ 1.20∼1.25 ⑧ San-in 1.11 1.15∼1.20 ⑨ Setouchi 1.10 1.10∼1.15 Southern 1.05∼1.10 ⑩ Shikoku 1.11 1.00∼1.05 ⑪ Kyushu 1.07 2. Impacts of Declining safety level against floods heavy rains Return period of flood is declining by increasing rainfall. 【Image of declining return period】 Maximum daily rainfall 1.2 return period ×

current future

1/100

current data projected data 1/ 50

RainfallRainfall probabilityprobability sheetssheets

r rainfall 2. Impacts of Declining safety level against floods heavy rains Impact for flood safety level after 100 years

1/200 （CurrentTarge ）1/150（CurrentTarge ） 1/100（ CurrentTarge ） t t Region Future floodt safety level（annual exceedance probability） levelFlood safety Number of Number of Number of river system river system river system Hokkaido － － 1/40～1/70 2 1/25～1/50 8 200 Tohoku － － 1/22～1/55 5 1/27～1/40 5 175 Kanto 1/90～1/120 3 1/60～1/75 2 1/50 1 150 125 Hokuriku － － 1/50～1/90 5 1/40～1/46 4 100 Cyubu 1/90～1/145 2 1/80～1/99 4 1/60～1/70 3 75 Kinki 1/120 1 － － － － 50 Southern Kii － － 1/57 1 1/30 1 25 Saninn － － 1/83 1 1/39～ 1/63 5 0 計 北 東 関 北 中 近 紀 山 瀬 四 九 Kinki Kanto Hokuriku Cyubu Hokkaido Tohoku Saninn Southern Kii Setouchi Kyuusyuu Current Target Shikoku Southern Setouchi 1/100 1 1/82～1/86 3 1/44～ 1/65 3 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 Southern Shikoku － － 1/56 1 1/41～ 1/51 3

道 ③ ② ① ① 南 内 南 ③ Kyusyu － － 1/90～ 1/100 4 1/60～ 1/90 14 ② 部 ① 部 All Japan 1/90～1/145 7 1/22～ 1/100 28 1/25～ 1/90 47 ① Flood safety levelFlood safety Flood safety levelFlood safety

150 100 125 75 100 75 50 50 25 25

0 Kinki

0 Kanto Cyubu 計 北 東 関 北 Hokuriku 中 近 紀 山 瀬 四 九 Saninn Shikoku Southern Hokkaido 計 北 東 関 北 中 近 紀 山 瀬 四 九 Tohoku Southern Kii Kyuusyuu Setouchi Current Target Kinki Kanto Cyubu Hokuriku Saninn Shikoku Southern Hokkaido Tohoku Southern Kii Kyuusyuu Setouchi Current Target 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 道 ⑤ ① ④ ③ 南 ⑤ 内 南 ⑭

道 ⑤ ② ⑤ ④ 南 ① 内 南 ④ ① ③ ② ⑤ ④ ⑤ ①

⑧ 部 ③ 部 ③

② ⑤ 部 ③ 部 ③ ① ④ ⑧ ③ ① ⑭ ⑤ ② ①

① ① ④ ① ③ ※ Circled number is number of calculated river system 2. Impacts of 石狩川 Changes of peak flood runoff heavy rains (北海道） Future rainfall: 1.0 ∼1.5 北上川 × （東北） Peak runoff : ×1.0 ∼1.7

計画降雨量の増加と基本高水のピーク流量の変化 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 利根川 Design Rainfall × × × × × （関東） Ishikari Riv. Design target Level Basin Area Peak Runoff of Design Flood (Hokkaido) １／１５０ 12,697ｋｍ2 18,000 m3／s 20,500 23,000 25,600 30,700 黒部川 Kitakami Riv. １／１５０ 7,070ｋｍ2 13,600 m3／s (Tohoku)（北陸） 15,700 17,800 19,900 24,000

Tone Riv. About 21,000 m3／s １／２００ 5,114ｋｍ2 23,600 25,900 27,900 31,800 (Kanto)雲出川 (Calculated by 1/200) （中部）

Kurobe Riv. １／１００ ｋｍ2 7,200 m3／s (Hokuriku) 667 8,100 8,900 9,700 11,300 紀の川

Izumo（近畿） Riv. 2 3 (Cyubu) １／１００ 541ｋｍ 8,000 m ／s 9,000 9,900 10,900 12,800

Kinokawa太田川 Riv. １／１５０ 2 3／ (Kinki) 1,574ｋｍ 16,000 m s 17,600 19,700 21,600 25,400 （中国） Oota Riv. (Cyugoku) １／２００ 1,505ｋｍ2 12,000 m3／s 13,100 14,700 16,300 19,400 那賀川 Naga（四国 Riv.） (Shikoku) １／１００ 765ｋｍ2 11,200 m3／s 12,800 14,500 16,100 19,300

Kase嘉瀬川 Riv. １／１００ 225.5ｋｍ2 3,400 m3／s 3,800 4,100 4,500 5,300 (Kyusyu)（九州） 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 3. Impacts of More frequent and serious droughts droughts After 100 years, rainfall decrease in March - June

Reduction of river flow in periods requiring most irrigation water, during surface soil puddling in paddy fields, may deteriorate water use for rice farming.

Legend

≧ 1.4 1.2- 1.4

1.0 - 1.2

0.8- 1.0

< 0.8

Comparison between present Spring (March through June) conditions(1979 to 1998) and future rainfall(2080 to 2099) in Class A rivers Source: Water Resources in Japan 2007, Land and Water Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport More frequent and serious droughts 3. Impacts of Snow fall pattern will change droughts In the upper Tone River (i) earlier snow melt and (ii) reduction of -snow cover will decrease snowfall changes in river flow rate, and -reduction of river flow rate (iii) earlier surface soil puddling in paddy fields in early spring is expected to change annual water demand pattern, and to have serious impacts on water use.

ChangeChange inin snowsnow covercover inin 100100 years (Fujiwara) (ii) Reduction of (i) Earlier discharge due to 300 years (Fujiwara) earlier snow melt 平均Average river flow rate 250 将来Future Reduction of river flow during 200 surface soil puddling in paddy 積 fields 雪 150 /sec) 深 3 Future Present現況 （cm ）100 将来

Snow cover cover (cm)Snow 50 River flow (m 0 (iii) Insufficient river flow for large amounts 10月1日Oct 11月1日Nov 12月1日Dec Jan 1月1日Feb 2月1日 3月1日Mar 4月1日Apr May 5月1日 1 of irrigation

*Prepared by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport based on Regional Climatic Model (RCM) 20, a global warming January April Surface soil July October prediction model, developed by Japan Meteorological Agency. puddling period Release of reservoir water not contributing to effective water use Source: Water Resources in Japan 2007, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Where the reservoir is full, released water is not used effectively. Increase of areas below sea level, 4. Impacts of and of inundation risks sea level rise Increases of below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo-Yokohama, Nagoya, and Osaka-Kobe)

Increasing areas with flood risks

Ashiya City to Osaka City Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City Yokohoma City to Chiba City

Osaka Bay Ise Bay Tokyo Bay

Rate of *Prepared by the River Bureau based on the national increase land-use digital information. Present現状 After海面上昇後 sea level rise 倍率 *Shown are the areas at elevations lower than sea level shown in a three-dimensional mesh (1 km x 1 km). 2 Total area and population are based on three- Area面積（ (km2)k㎡） 577) 879 １.５ dimensional data. *No areas of surfaces of rivers or lakes are included. *A premium of 60% is applied to the potential flood risk Population(Mill. area and to the population vulnerable to flood risk in the 人口（万人） 4044.04 5935.93 １.５ case with a one-meter rise of sea level. 5. Japan's response Recommendations to climate change in coastal and low-lying areas: -More frequent heavy rains and more intense typhoons Frequent and serious flood and sediment disasters -Sea level rise and more intense typhoons Frequent and serious high tides and coastal erosions -Wider range of variation of rainfall intensity and change of river flow Frequent and serious droughts Recommendation1. Basic concept ‘’Sustainable and Adaptable Society against Water Disasters’’

Recommendation2. Basic policy 1. Adaptation measures to achieve "zero casualty” Paradigm shift from ‘’Zero damage’’

2. Keeping national functions In strategic centers, such as the Tokyo Metropolitan area, Recommendations 3 5. Japan's response Multiple measures for increasing in hazard to climate change Blue figures: future flood Image of flood disaster adaptation measuressafety Present Future （after 100 years）

1/150 1/150

Present target Present target will of flood safety Reconfiguration of of flood safety be decreased river improvement because of for increasing Adaptation by increased rainfall external force Structural measures 1/70 Target of flood safety Secured Target of flood safety safety after 100 years 1/40 1/20 1/20 Secured Deterioration of flood safety secured safety

Comprehensive flood control measures Non-structural adaptation measures in river basin, such as land use regulation Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment 5. Japan's response to climate change – ex) Adaptation measures in river basin

Flood Analysis in Tone River

Small River Bank of Road and Railway Flooding area IV Flooding Area V

入間台地 Flooding Area VI Image of 【Flooding Area II】 Flooding Area III

Each flooding area divides into blocks by Flooding Area I river, bank of road and railway. Measures will be set up by each blocks.

Flooding Area II

Divide flooding areas Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Concept of Flood Risk Assessment

[Hazard Index] is increasing by Climate Change. For reduction of [Disaster risk] , increasing [Disaster Prevention Index] and reducing [Affection Index] by adaptation measures such as improvement of facility, revise of land use, enforce of emergency response HazardHazard IndexIndex AffectionAffection IndexIndex ＝＝ ×× ProbabilityProbability DisasterDisaster RiskRisk DisasterDisaster PreventionPrevention IndexIndex ××

・Hazard Index : Natural hazard and Land condition （Climate, Hydrology, Land Feature, Geologic Condition, etc and Scale of Hazard） ・Affection Index : Social vulnerability of disasters （Inundation people, Inundation houses, impacts of Road, Railway, Lifeline, etc） ・Disaster Prevention Index : Disaster prevention activity by Central Government, Local Government, community （Present status of facility improvement, Public preparedness for disasters）

犠 犠 Index of VictimsIndex of 牲 block Ａ地区 Index of VictimsIndex of 牲 Ａ Ｂ 1000 1000 Ｂ地区 者 Ｅ 者 数 Ｃ Ｃ地区 Index of 数 潜在的犠牲者発生指数Potential Victims の指 Ｆ Ｄ地区 Ｃ

Ａ の指 Ｅ地区 Risk High リスク増 Ｆ地区Ｅ 標 Ｂ 標 f=ｆ＝Σ潜在的犠牲者発生指数Σ Index of Potential Victims Flood areas are Ｄ Ｄ Frequency×頻度×被災確率 Probability ■例）×潜在的犠牲者発生指数× divided into blocks by Ｅ

Category by Risk Scale considering land 0 0 リスクの大きさに応じて High Middle Low High Middle Low feature such as bank Ｆ 1高頻度 10中頻度 低頻度 100 1000 1高頻度 10中頻度 低頻度 100 1000カテゴリー分類 Probability Probability Probability Probability Probability Probability of river, road, railway. Recommendation4: Flood Risk Assessment 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Evaluation of risks and planning adaptation measures

Planning based on evaluation items, alternatives and costs

Index of potential casualty Index of economic damage ■ ■ Necessity of considering Image 【Image】 multiple index of affection

Ａ Ｂ Ａ Ｂ Example of Affection Index Ｃ Ｃ Ｃ Affection Indexｆ ・Potential Casualty Ｄ Ｄ ・Economic Damage Ｅ Ｅ High Risk High ・Administrative Services Depression High Risk High Ｆ ・Inundate House Ｆ ・Environmental Damage

After adaptation measures After adaptation measures

Maximize評価項目や適応策などに関する制約条件 target function under restriction of assessment contents and adaptation measures etc. の下で目的関数の最大化を図る

ｆ１ ：Current Affection Index ｆ２ ：Affection Index after adaptation measures Δ ｆ＝ f1-f2 ｎ ｎ Δ ｆ：Reduction of Affection Index by adaptation measures i ：Weighting factor of each assessment Affection Index i・ ｆi i α Σαi Δ ／ Σi C n ：Targeted evaluation items Ｃ：Cost Recommendation 4: Flood Risk Assessment 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Evaluation Risks and Planning measures

Color index for effectiveness of risk reduction by adaptation measures

Bank Improvement

ST flood fighting station Ｂ Ａ Ａ New Road Ｂ Bank Ｃ Bank of Adaptation Measures Road and Railway Ｃ

Ｄ Ｅ

Risk reduction Ｆ by adaptation measures Ｄ Ｅ Ｐ Index of potential casualty drain pump High Risk Ｆ Ｐ medium and small size rivers Recommendation5. combination measures 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Structural Adaptation measures

Improvement of structure credibility, effective and multipurpose and long-life utilization of existing structure

Improvement structure improvement of the

International Multipurpose retarding basin credibility of structure 横浜国際総合 ：鶴見川多目的遊水地of Tsurumi River Stadium Yokohama Final競技場 game of the 越 （ex Coastal protection） World Cup was held Overflow in 2002 流 levee 鶴見川 堤 Tsurumi River

遊水地 tide gate Before 排水門

鳥山川Karasuyama River

aging revetment Multipurpose retarding basin by deteriorated concrete

After

River improvement Rehabilitation of aging revetment flood control（Dam） by setting up anterior wall Recommendation5: combination of measures 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Non-structural adaptation measures

Non-structural measures to response floods not covered by structural measures: land use or development allowing inundation.

land use for minimize damages circle levee River improvement of continuous levee

River improvement for protection of specified areas by using circle levees Designation of potential disaster hazard area

land use regulation Resilient to inundation

Class 4 disaster Sample ordinance restrictions (Nagoya City) hazard area Class 3 disaster hazard area １階の床の高さ 構 造 制 限 図 解 *建築物の建築禁止 範囲…海岸線・河岸線から N・P 50m以内で市長が指定する区 第 市 5 域 １ 街 4 1階床高 制限…居住室を有する建築 種 化 Ｎ・Ｐ（+）4m以上 木造禁止 3 物、病院及び児童福祉施設等 区 区 （ｍ） の建築禁止 域 域 木造以外の構造で、居住室等 の床の高さをN・P（+）5.5m以 上としたものについては建築 可能

第 市 2階以上に居室設置 N・P *公共建築物の制限 ２ 街 緩和：延べ面積が100㎡ （第2種～第4種区域） 種 化 Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上 以内のものは避難 2 範囲…学校、病院、集会場、 1 1階床高 Class 2 disaster 区 区 室、避難設備の設 0 官公署、児童福祉施設等その 域 域 置による代替可 他これらに類する公共建築物 hazard area （ｍ） 制限…1階の床の高さN・P（+） 第 市 N・P ３ 街 2mかつN・P（+）3.5m以上の居 種 化 Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上 2 室設置 区 区 1 1階床高 0 域 域 （ｍ） Class 1 disaster 市 hazard area 第 街 ４ 化 N・P 種 調 Ｎ・Ｐ（+）1m以上 2階以上に居室設置 2 区 整 1 1階床高 域 区 0 名古屋市臨海部防災区域図 域 （ｍ） Adopting pilotis to prevent damage to buildings during a flood Recommendation5: combination of measures 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Adaptation measures centering around risk management wide-area disaster prevention network connecting embankments, roads on Reinforcement of actions of minimizing damage and dry river bed for emergency traffic and elevated roads restoring infrastructure, and organizational arrangement

Technical Emergency Control Force (TEC-FORCE) 《緊急災害対策派遣隊》TEC-FORCE Organizational体制 setup 構成員 Staff of各地方整備局・事務所職員 Regional Development Bureaus and Offices 現地支援センターField support center Engineers of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure 国総研・土研等の技術専門家 Wide-area広域基盤施設部隊 infrastructure force Management and Public Works Research Institute (rivers, roads, sediment control, 〈河川・道路・砂防・港湾等〉ports, etc.) 技術支援グループ（技術専門家）Technical support group (engineers)

契約 Contract/ Private sector construction organizations Sewerage system force agreement 下水道部隊 協定 民間建設関連（資機材の操作員）(operators of equipment)

Building宅地部隊 land force 連携Coordination

建築物部隊 Staff地方公共団体職員 of local public entities Buildings force

Network of roads and river embankments Activities -Investigation of damage -Quick repairing -Prediction of degree of damage risk -Planning of control Drainage pumping vehicle measures -High-level technical guidance -Assistance in Inundation of Route 34 during a flood reconstruction Disaster control helicopter in July 1990 Image of road-embankment connection Recommendation5: combination of measures 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Adaptation measures based on risk management

Share information concerning the degree of flood risk

洪水ハザードマップの作成イメージPast flood levels in hazard map

Information dissemination Flood hazard map of xx City channel Locations and names of shelters

Points of contact -Administrative organizations -Medical institutions -Lifeline systems management organizations

Underground space

Toyooka City, Hyogo Prefecture Flood Embankment Shelter (building)

Potential inundation Image of a flood hazard map Hints on escape and areas and depths of necessities inundation Easily recognizable signs Recommendation5: combination of measures 5. Japan's response to climate change ‒ Adaptation measures based on risk management Share real-time information ・ rainfall and water levels real-time via cellular phone, Internet or local radio ・ Flood forecasting through real-time simulation

Rainfall measurement station Radar observation station

Rainfall measurement station Radar precipitation prediction

Relay station

Delivery of an image to a TV screen Gauging station Information provision via cellular phone or personal Gauging computer station

Flood alarm Surveillance office camera

Flood (water level) River office prediction system

Meteorological observatory

Floodwater prediction through real-time simulation Adaptation measures in suburb of Tokyo Outline of Tsurumi River (Geography)

Hill / tableland 70％ Tokyo Chiba Pref. Alluvial lowland 30％ Kanagawa Tsurumi river basin Pref. Riverbed gradient : 1/250

Middle section with stepped cross section

Tsurumi River

Tsurumi Densely-populated River downstream section elevation Hayase- Tsurumi Onda River River River 0∼20m

Toriyama River

Upstream section Riverbed gradient ：1/1,000 below grand level Outline of Tsurumi River 8. Adaptation measures in Outline of Tsurumi River Tsurumi River (Urbanization and population increase) Urbanization ration has increased Rapid economic growth has turned natural area into urban area by 75% in 50years ％ 1958 10 1966 20%

Typhoon Karinogawa in Sep 1958 450,000 700,000

1975 60% Present 85%

Typhoon No.17 in Sep 1976 1,200,000 1,880,000

Natural Area

Urbanization Population Urban Area 8. Adaptation measures in OutlineOutline ofof TsurumiTsurumi RiverRiver (rapid(rapid urbanization)urbanization) Tsurumi River

・Population increased Function of keeping and retarding water became weakened by 1.4 million in 50 years

・85% of river basin area urbanized

・Typical urban river Before development After development AsAs aa resultresult Slight urbanization Significant urbanization 1,300 m3/s Peak runoff Volume Doubles ・Discharge into river Difference 770 m3/s has become faster Present Runoff reaches ・Peak runoff has Before its peak in becomes bigger Development 1/3 of time

2∼3 hours 10 hours BasicBasic strategystrategy forfor controllingcontrolling inundationinundation damagedamage 8. Adaptation measures in (Runoff allocation) Tsurumi River Runoff allocation by target rainfall Peak runoff without discharge control ･･･2,110m3/s Allocation in river basin (town)： 250m3/s Existing and newly developed rainfall 3 storage and infiltration facilities 205m /s Rainfall storage and infiltration measures 3 by municipalities 15m /s Rainfall storage tubes by sewerage 3 administrators 30m /s Allocation in river：1,860mm3/s/s Controlled by rivers 1,500m3/s Storage in flood control facilities 3 and in retarding basins 360m /s

※Under the future land use, runoff is estimated at Sueyoshibashi point based on the largest rainfall after 1945. 8. Adaptation measures in RainwaterRainwater storagestorage facilitiesfacilities Tsurumi River

Development of facilities for target rainfall Planned discharge in pump drainage areas Planned storage of major facilities City Discharge Planned City Storage facility Planned area discharge Storage 3 Yokohama Tsuzuki 17m /s Yokohama Shin hasue trunk line 410,000m3 3 Kouhoku 142m /s Kozukue chiwaka trunk line 256,000m3 3 Hokubu 189m /s Kawasaki Shibukawa rainwater storage 144,000m3 Kawasaki Kase 55m3/s tube Egawa rainwater storage tube 81,000m3 Total 402m3/s

Pump facilities Rainwater storage tube StStorage,orage, iinnfiltfiltraratitionon 8. Adaptation measures in Tsurumi River andand forestforest conservationconservation (Total effect : 0.3 million m3)

Storage Infiltration in schools, parks and public facilities Infiltration by permeable pavement

Infiltration Inlet Infiltration trench

Forest Conservation Infiltration Inlet Infiltration trench 8. Adaptation measures in PublicPublic awarenessawareness toto mitigatemitigate damagesdamages Tsurumi River (Public(Public awarenessawareness andand educationeducation onon disasterdisaster preparedness)preparedness)

To organize local meetings and raise public awareness on preparedness on disaster Education for students Disaster preparedness caravan

Annual educational course for To visit local meetings and explain students on disaster to residents preparedness Tsurumi River Commnication Center Public awareness on flood damages 8. Adaptation measures in Public awareness on flood damages Tsurumi River (Advance dissemination of flood and inundation prone information) “Hazard Maps”

Urban flood prone area Urban inundationハザードマップ prone area （River administrator） (Sewerage administrator) （自治体） Flood is estimated by levee break Inundation by insufficient drainage or overtopping. On capacity is estimated. t he b as is

“Hazard Map” released by Yokohama City 3. JICA Approach on Climate Change 2.JICA Approach on Climate Change

(1) To provide cross-sectoral cooperation according to policy dialogue with developing countries

(2) To take a development approach simultaneously achieving economic development, improvement of livelihoods and reduction of GHG emissions

(3) To utilize Japan’s advanced technologies

(4) To promote research works 2.JICA Approach on Climate Change -Mitigation Measures- (1) To assist both sustainable development and reduction of GHG emissions a. Reforestation b. Clean energy c. Public transport d. Solid waste management (2) To assist private sector initiatives to reduce GHG emissions a. Improving energy efficiency b. Public Private Partnership

(3) To assist promotion of a clean development mechanism (CDM) a. Capacity development b. Support to implementation 2.JICA Approach on Climate Change -Adaptation Measures-

(1) To support establishing and implementing adaptation policy according to effect in each country

(2) To support adaptation measures in highly vulnerable countries, regions, and areas

(3) Introducing the concept of “consideration on climate risk” to JICA projects 3. JICA’s support to adaptation measures in highly vulnerable countries, regions, and areas 3-1: GLOF in Himalaya 3-2: Sea level rise in Pacific 3-3: Integrated Flood and Urban management in Philippines 3-4: Community based apaptaion in Kenya 3-5: Capacity development 3-1 GLOF What is Glacial Lake Outburst Floods ?

Dig Tsho Lake in Nepal, 1985

• 5 million m3 water discharged • Damages of • Hydropower station • Bridges • Houses • Human losses

Prof. Tomomi Yamada Prof. Tomomi Yamada 3-1 GLOF JICA’s Support • JICA experts – 2yrs glacial hydrology – 4yrs glacial geology – 5 Short term experts • Out puts – Inventory survey –Site survey – Capacity building 3-1 GLOF Project formulation Mission: June 2008

• Dr. T. Yamada (Glaciology) • Mr. M. Ishiwatari (Leader, • Prof. D. Higaki (Sabo) Disaster management) • Dr. Y. Maruo (Geology) • Ms. Kamei, Mr. Hatori (JICA) 3-1 GLOF Imja Lake

• It is difficult to consider that the Imja Glacial Lake will immediately burst. (watanabe 2008) • Assets in risk area:60 houses (ICIMOD 2007) 3-1 GLOF Tsho Rolpa Lake

• Severe working condition: high cost, limited construction period, mountain altitude sickness • Still high risk 3-1 GLOF Joint Seminar with ICIMOD 3-1 GLOF Recommendations

--To establish sustainable systems and capacities in monitoring, research, DM of GLOF--

Areas ¾Nation-wide GLOF Risk Management Data Base ¾Technology development and research work ¾Capacity development of Government institutions and universities ¾Community based disaster management

As further steps ¾Regional Cooperation 3-1 GLOF Recommendations

¾ MUST be carefully balanced with other development issues. Since GLOF is: • NOT national development agenda • NOT high priority in disaster management sector, and • Limited damages of past and potential GLOF. 3-2 Tuvalu Project Formulation Mission in Climate Change

Ministries of Foreign Affairs; and Land, Infrastructure, and Transport; Environment; Tokyo Univ.; and JICA 3-2 Tuvalu Mission Findings Research and survey works are recommended to conserve costal lines and to control erosion: ¾ formulation processes of atolls ¾ ecological systems ¾ mechanism of providing sands, sedimentation, and erosion ¾ ocean currents and tides ¾ structural and non-structural measures ¾ social survey 3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban Management Metro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area

zRapid urbanization zFrequent Floods

Typhoon Reming Oct 2000 (Source: IDI-Japan)

Aug. 2007 3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban Management Metro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area

Peak flood volume (10yr return period) ×1.25~1.5 in 2050 Incremental Ratio Incremental of Extreme Rainfall Qp=1,300m3/s Year 2050 under Secenario A1FI Qp = 1,090 m3/s Changes Year 2050 under Secenario B1 of precipitable 1400 water for Mani la 1200 Qp = 880m3/s /s)

3 States Quo

(%) 1000

800

600 Discharge (m Discharge

400

200 Local Average Temperature Rise in 0 Philippines (℃) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 Time (Hour) Model for Interdisciplinary Model 3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban Management Metro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area

2008 ×3 2050 21,800 houses 74,200 houses Number of Houses/Buildings Inundated Probable Flood Inundation Area (km2) (thousand houses) Urbanized Case No. Scenario of Climate Change Ratio Flood Depth Flood Depth Flood Depth Flood Depth Total Total below 1m above 1m below 1m above 1m 1 Status Quo 26%* 31.51 1.05 32.56 20.1 1.7 21.8 2 States Quo 35.82 1.50 37.32 31.4 2.9 34.4 3 In 2050 under B1 Scenario 43%** 41.10 2.52 43.62 35.5 4.4 39.9 4 In 2050 under A1FI Scenario 44.64 3.54 48.18 38.4 5.9 44.3 5 States Quo 41.05 2.45 43.50 56.4 7.2 63.6 6 In 2050 under B1 Scenario 65%*** 43.92 2.97 46.89 60.1 8.5 68.6 7 In 2050 under A1FI Scenario 47.27 3.98 51.25 63.0 11.2 74.2 Note: *: The present urbanized ratio as of 2003 **: The urbanized ratio in 2020 proposed by the JICA Study Team ***: The urbanized ratio in 2020 projected by the local governments 3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban Management Metro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area Alternative 1: Widening channel

Alternative 2: Heightening dyke 3-3 Integrated Flood and Urban Management Metro Manila Suburb, Philippines : Cavite Area ○ Alternative 3: Integrated management 1. River improvement works 2. Land Use Control 3. Retarding Basin in Urban area

Off-site Flood Retarding Basin Partial River Improvement Section 3-4 Community Based Adaptation Nyand River Basin Kenya Ring Dyke Dyke on High Ground

Evacuation Route

Long Spur

River side forest

Victoria Roadside Drainage Lake Raising national road

Sing Board for Flood Condition at Area Signboard

Flood Affected Area Nyand River Flood Depth

Based on the past Experience Level of Flood Depth

Sing Board for Evacuation Route

Direction for Evacuation with Distance, Evacuation Center, and Flood Area 3-4 Community Based Adaptation Kenya- Nyand River Basin

Evacuation drill Hazard mapping First aid 3-4 Community Based Adaptation Nyand River Basin Kenya

Evacuation route Low-cost revetment

トイレ

Well sanitation Evacuation center facilities 3-5 Capacity Development for Adaptation to CC -Argentine-

• Technical assistance for climate change projection on a local-scale • High-resolution climate models with computing power of the “Earth Simulator” (20km-mesh atmospheric model) 3-5 Capacity Development for Adaptation to CC -Training course in Japan-

step3 Adaptation Actions Japan Meteorological Agency Meteorological Research Institute Agriculture step1 & others Climate Scenario Health Care 2008－09 JICA step2 Disaster Impact Assessment 2010 Management Forestry & Natural Resource • 3-year training programme starting in 2008, targeted at Asian countries, covering: – Climate scenario (2008-09) – Impact assessment (2010) • To be followed by concrete adaptation actions: – Adaptation policy formulation & implementation – Mainstreaming Conclusion z JICA just started Capacity Development Projects in Adaptation to CC 9 On trial and ad-hoc basis z Challenges 9 Integrating into national development policy framework 9 Multi-sector approach 9 Developing planning methodology 9 Capacity development Thank you very much