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Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change in Japan

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Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change in Japan Adaptation Strategy for Climate Change in Japan - Toward Water-disaster Adaptive society - October 23, 2008 Toshio OKAZUMI Director for International Water Management Coordination Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Japanese Government 1. Present conditions Japan is vulnerable to climate change and issues Kinki Region Kanto Region A y S a h Ikebukuro s i e n Station R n Ueno a i k v a Station S e r Kanzaki River K u Kameido R an m i da v Amagasaki Ri i Station ved r e Station Shin-Osaka Station a r Tokyo Shinjuku R Kinsicyo Old Edo River Old Edo Station i Station v Station e r Ara River Shibuya Osaka Station Neya River Shibu Yodo River Station ya Ri M ver Osaka Castle e Hirano gu ro Tennouji Station River R Toneiv River er Elevation Elevation About 50% of the population and 3m – 4m 3m – 4m 1m – 3m about 75% of the property on 1m – 3m 0m – 1m 0m – 1m -1m – 0m -1m – 0m -1m – about 10% of the land which is -1m – Water Area Water Area lower than the river water level during flooding 1. Present conditions Recent flood disasters in Japan and issues 2008.7.28 Flood in Hyogo Pref. 2008.8.29 Flood in Aichi Pref. largest-ever rainfall per Water level rapidly rose hour Amount rainfall per hour by 134cm in 10 min. 雨量 Amount rainfall per hour 160 Cyunichi New Paper 140 120 100 80 146mm/h 60 40 20 0 Cyunichi New Paper 1516171819202122232412345678910 Break Point 1. Present conditions Recent rainfall trend and issues Annual total of hourly rainfall events (Source: approx. 1,300 AMeDAS locations across Japan) 1. Number of events of 50 mm or more rainfall per hour 500 (instances/year) 400 300 200 1996~2005 100 1976~1985 1986~1995 Average events Average events Average 234 events 228888 209209 234 ‘04 01976 ‘77 ‘78 ‘79 ‘80 ‘81 ‘82 ‘83 ‘84 ‘85 ‘86 ‘87 ‘88 ’89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘05 2. Number of events of 100 mm or more rainfall per hour 10 (instances/year) 1976~1985 1986~1995 1996~2005 Average 4.74.7 events Average 22.22 events Average 2.22.2 events 5 0 1976 ‘77 ‘78 ‘79 ‘80 ‘81 ‘82 ‘83 ‘84 ‘85 ‘86 ‘87 ‘88 ‘89 ‘90 ‘91 ‘92 ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 2. Impacts of climate Mechanism of global warming and climate change change Large volumes of greenhouse gas emissions cause higher CO2 concentration in the air and increase heat absorption, resulting in temperature rise, and thus, global warming. Melting of glaciers, ice caps and Thermal expansion Change in Change in snow ice sheets of sea water evapotranspiration accumulation condition Sea level rise (Maximum rise: 59 cm) More intense typhoons Increase of More frequent heavy Earlier snow melt precipitation by a rains and droughts and reduction of factor of 1.1 to 1.3* discharge Change in water use Increase of river flow rate pattern MoreMore frequentfrequent stormstorm surgessurges andand coastalcoastal MoreMore frequentfrequent MoreMore seriousserious debrisdebris flowsflows HigherHigher riskrisk ofof droughtsdroughts erosionserosions floodsfloods 2. Impacts of climate Estimation of increased rainfall in each region change Future rainfall amounts were projected as a median value in each region of Average rainfall in 2080-2099 period Average rainfall in 1979-1998 period ② The above equation was obtained based on the maximum daily precipitation in the year ① at each survey point identified in GCM20 (A1B scenario). ① Hokkaido 1.24 ④ ② Tohoku 1.22 ③ ⑧ ③ Kanto 1.11 ⑤ ④ Hokuriku 1.14 ⑨ ⑥ ⑤ Chubu 1.06 ⑦ ⑥ Kinki 1.07 ⑩ Legend ⑦ Southern Kii 1.13 ⑪ 1.20～1.25 ⑧ San-in 1.11 1.15～1.20 ⑨ Setouchi 1.10 1.10～1.15 ⑩ Southern Shikoku 1.11 1.05～1.10 ⑪ Kyushu 1.07 1.00～1.05 2. Impacts of climate Decreasing degree of safety level change Impact for flood safety level by changing rainfall after 100 years Increasing future rainfall decreases the 1/200 （CurrentTarget ） 1/150（CurrentTarget） 1/100（CurrentTarget ） （annual exceedance probability） （ degree of safety against floods. Region Future flood safety level exceedanceannual probability 200 Number of Number of Number of river system river system river system 175 Hokkaido － － 1/40 ～ 1/70 2 1/25 ～ 1/50 8 level safety Flood 150 Tohoku － － 1/22 ～ 1/55 5 1/27 ～ 1/40 5 Kanto 1/90 ～ 1/120 3 1/60 ～ 1/75 2 1/50 1 125 Hokuriku － － 1/50 ～ 1/90 5 1/40 ～ 1/46 4 100 Cyubu 1/90 ～ 1/145 2 1/80 ～ 1/99 4 1/60 ～ 1/70 3 75 Kinki 1/120 1 － － － － 50 Southern Kii － － 1/57 1 1/30 1 25 ） Saninn － － 1/83 1 1/39 ～ 1/63 5 0 Current Target Hokuriku Shikoku Southern Kyuusyuu Kanto Hokkaido Tohoku Setouchi Cyubu Saninn Kinki 計 北 東 関 北 中 近 Southern Kii 紀 山 瀬 四 九 Setouchi 1/100 1 1/82 ～ 1/86 3 1/44 ～ 1/65 3 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 Southern Shikoku － － 1/56 1 1/41 ～ 1/51 3 道 ③ ② ① 南 内 南 ① ③ Kyusyu － － 1/90～1/100 4 1/60～1/90 14 ② 部 ① 部 All Japan 1/90 ～ 1/145 7 1/22 ～ 1/100 28 1/25 ～ 1/90 47 ① （ annual exceedanceannual probability （ 150 exceedanceannual probability 100 Flood safety level safety Flood 125 level safety Flood 75 100 75 50 50 25 25 ） Kyuusyuu Kanto Shikoku Southern Hokuriku Current Target Hokkaido Tohoku Setouchi Cyubu Kinki 0 計 北 東 関 北 中 近 紀 山 瀬 四 九 0 計 北 東 関 北 中 近 Southern Kii 紀 Saninn 山 瀬 四 九 Hokuriku Shikoku Southern Kyuusyuu Kanto Cyubu Hokkaido Tohoku Saninn Kinki Setouchi Current Target Southern Kii ） 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 画 海 北 東 陸 部 畿 伊 陰 戸 国 州 道 ⑤ ② ⑤ ④ 南 ① 内 南 ④ 道 ⑤ ① ④ ③ 南 ⑤ 内 南 ⑭ ① ③ ② ② 部 ③ 部 ⑧ 部 ⑤ ③ 部 ④ ⑤ ① ③ ⑤ ③ ① ④ ① ③ ① ① ⑧ ③ ⑤ ⑭ ② ① ④ ① ※ The circled numbers indicate the number of calculated river systems. 2. Impacts of climate Changes of peak runoff by future rainfall change Estimated future rainfalls are about 1.1 to 1.5 times the current rainfall. Peak runoffs are estimated at 1.1 to 1.7 times the current peak runoffs in 9 major rivers. 計画降雨量の増加と基本高水のピーク流量の変化 Design Rainfall ×1.0 ×1.1 ×1.2 ×1.3 ×1.5 Ishikari石狩川 Riv. Design Level Basin Area Peak Runoff of Design Flood (Hokkaido)(北海道） １／１５０ 12,697ｋｍ2 18,000 m3／s 20,500 23,000 25,600 30,700 北上川 Kitakami Riv. １／１５０ ｋｍ2 3／ (Tohoku)（東北） 7,070 13,600 m s 15,700 17,800 19,900 24,000 Tone利根川 Riv. About 21,000 m3／s １／２００ 5,114ｋｍ2 23,600 25,900 27,900 31,800 (Kanto)（関東） (Calculated by 1/200) 黒部川 Kurobe Riv. ｋｍ2 7,200 m3／s (Hokuriku)（北陸） １／１００ 667 8,100 8,900 9,700 11,300 Izumo雲出川 Riv. 2 3 (Cyubu)（中部） １／１００ 541ｋｍ 8,000 m ／s 9,000 9,900 10,900 12,800 紀の川 Kinokawa Riv. 2 3／ (Kinki)（近畿） １／１５０ 1,574ｋｍ 16,000 m s 17,600 19,700 21,600 25,400 Oota太田川 Riv. (Cyugoku)（中国） １／２００ 1,505ｋｍ2 12,000 m3／s 13,100 14,700 16,300 19,400 Naga那賀川 Riv. (Shikoku)（四国） １／１００ 765ｋｍ2 11,200 m3／s 12,800 14,500 16,100 19,300 Kase嘉瀬川 Riv. 2 3 (Kyusyu)（九州） １／１００ 225.5ｋｍ 3,400 m ／s 3,800 4,100 4,500 5,300 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180% 2. Impacts of climate Impacts of sea level rise change Below-sea-level areas in three large metropolitan areas (Tokyo Bay, Ise Bay and Osaka Bay) Ashiya City to Osaka City Kawagoemachi to Tohkai City Yokohoma City to Chiba City OsakaOsaka Bay Bay IseIse Bay Bay TokyoTokyo Bay Bay *Prepared by the River Bureau based on the national land-use digital information. *Shown are the areas at elevations lower than sea level shown in a three-dimensional mesh (1 km x 1 Areas with flood risks due to km). Total area and population are based on three-dimensional data. *No areas of surfaces of rivers or lakes are included. *A premium of 60% is applied to the potential flood risk area and to the population vulnerable to flood risk storm surges will increase. in the case with a one-meter rise of sea level. Rate of Present現状 After海面上昇後 sea level rise increase倍率 面積（Area (kmk㎡）2) 577559 879861 1.5 人口（万人）Population (Million) 3.88404 5935.76 1.5 3.Adaptation measures Basic concept of adaptation strategies for climate change Climate change due to global warming is expected to induce the following phenomena in coastal and low-lying areas. -More frequent heavy rains and more intense typhoons Frequent and serious flood and sediment disasters -Sea level rise and more intense typhoons Frequent and serious storm surges and coastal erosions -Wider range of variation in rainfall intensity and change of river flow regime Frequent and serious droughts Basic concept for a future ideal society Combining mitigation and adaptation aiming at ‘’ Water -disaster adaptive society’’ Basic direction of climate change adaptation strategies 1. Adaptation measures to achieve “Zero casualty" should be prioritized, because ‘’Zero damage’’ from disasters is virtually impossible. 2. In a nerve center like the Tokyo metropolitan area, intensive efforts should be channeled to prevent core national functions from paralysis.
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