remote sensing Article Spatiotemporal Modeling of Coniferous Forests Dynamics along the Southern Edge of Their Range in the Central Russian Plain Tatiana Chernenkova 1,* , Ivan Kotlov 2 , Nadezhda Belyaeva 1 and Elena Suslova 3 1 Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Staromonetniy pereulok 29, 119017 Moscow, Russia;
[email protected] 2 Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Russian Academy of Sciences, Leninsky ave. 33, 119071 Moscow, Russia;
[email protected] 3 Biogeography Department of Geography Faculty, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 119991 Moscow, Russia;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +7-916-706-52-65 Abstract: Forests with predominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within the hemiboreal zone are considered as secondary communities formed under long-term human activity (logging, plowing, fires and silviculture). This study raises the question—how stable is current state of coniferous forests on the southern border of their natural distribution in the center of Eastern Europe using the example of the Moscow region (MR)? The object of the study are spruce and pine forests in different periods of Soviet and post-Soviet history within the Moscow Region (MR). The current proportion of spruce forests is 21.7%, and the proportion of pine forests is 18.5% from total forest area according to our estimates. The direction and rate of forest Citation: Chernenkova, T.; Kotlov, I.; succession were analyzed based on current composition of populations of the main forest-forming Belyaeva, N.; Suslova, E. species (spruce, pine, birch, aspen, oak, linden, and ash) based on ground-based research materials Spatiotemporal Modeling of collected in 2006–2019.